Disliked{quote} Fine, but then don't criticize me. I like people who put their money where their mouth is. If you have nothing to show or effective solutions to the challenges of trading to realize making a living from it, you're in the wrong place.Ignored
- #505
- Nov 5, 2025 10:39pm Nov 5, 2025 10:39pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,377 Posts
So thats why i opted for just the first conditions to be automated then i would just do it manually. Another issue is the nature of the system makes it difficult to backtest as you are scanning all assets in markets watch that has the setup and it can be any asset.
Also backtesting reliability is questionable. Ive seen other systems back tested over 3 years produce an 87 percent winrate but in another 2 years drops down to 68 percent. Ive seen other systems where in 3 years the backtest showed an 80 percent winrate and one or 2 months out of the 2 years would have a 60 percent rate.
I think that win rates and other metrics of a strategy always vary. For me, these aren't criteria for rejecting a strategy. I think what's more important is that the strategy is robust, works under varying market conditions (trending, non-trending, low/high volatility, bull/bear markets) and leads to the desired overall result, taking into account the maximum risk one is willing to take.
I agree with you that this strategy might be difficult to backtest and that there are many things that can go wrong when backtesting in general (e.g. Overfitting, Look-ahead bias, Data-snooping bias, Survivorship bias, Ignoring transaction costs - to name a few), which is why many people probably prefer to skip this process.
Nothing wrong with theorizing and discussing but you gotta show us some call outs. All this grand talk and posturing from traders that say they want to help but dont bother to even show a trade setup I really just do not understand.
I asked ChatGPT.
That’s a very good and realistic question — and the short answer is:
Yes, it’s possible in theory, but very difficult in practice and requires exceptional consistency, risk management, and capital.
Let’s break it down step by step
1. The Risk–Return Relationship
If your maximum drawdown (DD) is €15,000, and you aim to make €5,000/month, your risk-to-return ratio looks like this:
Target monthly return: €5,000
Max drawdown: €15,000
Risk/Reward ratio: 3:1 (you accept 3× more loss potential than a month’s target profit)
That’s equivalent to 33% return per month on your risk capital.
That’s very aggressive unless you’re using leverage or have high capital efficiency.
2. Required Capital and Return Scenarios
Let’s see what that looks like depending on your account size:
So, with €100,000–250,000, your goal is challenging but within professional reach.
3. What’s Realistic? 
If you want, I can show you a sample equity curve or risk model (in Excel or chart) showing what this kind of performance would look like month-to-month — would you like that?
That’s a very good and realistic question — and the short answer is:
Yes, it’s possible in theory, but very difficult in practice and requires exceptional consistency, risk management, and capital.Let’s break it down step by step
1. The Risk–Return RelationshipIf your maximum drawdown (DD) is €15,000, and you aim to make €5,000/month, your risk-to-return ratio looks like this:
Target monthly return: €5,000
Max drawdown: €15,000
Risk/Reward ratio: 3:1 (you accept 3× more loss potential than a month’s target profit)
That’s equivalent to 33% return per month on your risk capital.
That’s very aggressive unless you’re using leverage or have high capital efficiency.
2. Required Capital and Return ScenariosLet’s see what that looks like depending on your account size:
So, with €100,000–250,000, your goal is challenging but within professional reach. 3. What’s Realistic?- Retail traders: Most lose money. The ones who do profit consistently often make 2–5% per month with drawdowns under 10–20%.
- Professional traders / funds: Target 10–30% per year with max DD below 10%.
- High-risk traders (leverage, short-term strategies): Can hit 10–20% per month — but usually experience 20–50% drawdowns eventually.
So, your 5k/month goal is realistic only if:
You have ≥ €100k in capital, and
- You’re skilled enough to manage risk tightly, and
- You accept occasional drawdowns near €15k (i.e., 15%).
4. Strategy Implications
To make that work, you’d need:
- Edge: A strategy with >50% win rate and a reward-to-risk ratio ≥1.5.
- Position sizing: Typically risking 0.5–1% per trade.
- Consistency: Avoid overtrading and revenge trading.
- Diversification: Multiple instruments or timeframes to reduce correlated losses.
5. Bottom Line
If you want, I can show you a sample equity curve or risk model (in Excel or chart) showing what this kind of performance would look like month-to-month — would you like that?