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  • #321
  • Oct 25, 2025 6:52pm Oct 25, 2025 6:52pm
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} {quote} You're correct about a lot of things such as cycles and trends being profitable I'm sure. My points of contention with your arguments are only 2 points: 1. You claim following cycles and trends are the least path of resistance and also "the real move"(bigger pay off) while counters can be traded but they require more work for less reward(lesser pay off). My contention with your argument is that you freely agree with my earlier statement which is the perception of value is what causes these trends so if one already can understand...
Traders buying and selling cause the trends, cycles and reversals - I would call it agreement on prices, your perception of value might mean something else to you - I view value traders as fundamental value traders and we all know they don't pick optimum times to invest

You cannot predict every move in the market, that is impossible, you can predict and trade many market cycles though and those cycles turn into trends

Buyers and sellers work to the cycles, they create the moves - whether that is value or not I'm not concerned about, all I want is to trade price in the direction it is going in, depending upon the time-frame I choose to trade and at the time of watching the market

You ONLY make money from being right on price action direction, that is a trend cycle whatever you choose to call it - it is irrelevant how the trend occurred - if a price reaches one of your auction theory levels, its moved in a trend to get to that level, if it then bounces off/from that level it will move in a trend from that level

I don't have an interest in auction theory - not something I'm interested in, so can't comment on its relevance, viability or profitability - if it works, it will by default coincide with trends and cycles

That SP500 cycle chart in my previous post has a pretty high win rate of picking out the lows - on the time-frame shown its 100% - the red cycle line doesn't follow the market, it predicts it, that means I can run that cycle forward in time months, years and have a ultra high prediction of the next batch of SP500 lows, as you can see from the evidence on the chart, you always get a upward move of some degree thereafter - going short during those periods would not be a wise use of money and proves that you only make money being right on direction of price - you could go short, but it would be a pretty stupid use of ones funds

Anyway, if you know how you make money without being short when price bars are declining, tell us, if you're talking about accumulating a position, then that is valid, but it was/is not what I am talking about, I'm talking about those specific declining bars, it is impossible to make money from them by being long as they decline bar after bar

It doesn't matter who is buying and who is selling, if a trend is going UP, you go up with it until it stops and likewise if its going down you go down with it until it stops - it doesn't matter who's chasing value or value levels etc

There's lots of valid ways to trade/Invest - ALL of them require one to be aligned with the direction price moves in to make money, unless you sell options for the premium
  • #322
  • Oct 25, 2025 8:19pm Oct 25, 2025 8:19pm
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Traders buying and selling cause the trends, cycles and reversals - I would call it agreement on prices, your perception of value might mean something else to you - I view value traders as fundamental value traders and we all know they don't pick optimum times to invest You cannot predict every move in the market, that is impossible, you can predict and trade many market cycles though and those cycles turn into trends Buyers and sellers work to the cycles, they create the moves - whether that is value or not I'm not concerned about, all...
Interesting . I feel as though we mostly agree but we disagree on what should be emphasized. With SP500 I long with super high accuracy and short with the same accuracy because i trade only when buyers and sellers agree so goin short would not be a stupid use of funds but rather a viable highly recommended trade. It would seem that you are saying trend direction limits your trade direction. I have specific conditions that need to be met so I am already limited in those respects but I am not limited by trend direction. I specifically look for those declining bars to hit targets and I dont accumulate positions but rather i enter when I have confirmed the the market(buyers and sellers) is interpreting a level as a bullish at the same time. Once i confirm that i go long no matter how powerful the downtrend is. I did this with the gbp pairs last week. Went long on GBPCAD. Then short on GBPCAD (i showed this trade in my video i posted in my previous post). Below is the long gbpcad:

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You can see the entry was precise at the bottom lows in line with the overall uptrend these past 12 months and it went up to target. Then I sold it back down at exact top highs with the same exact setup but the inverse as seen below:
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If in a downtrend I will sell and buy with same precision and one of those buys in the downtrend can turn into a huge reversal that changes the trend to an uptrend and i would have catch those types of big reversals because im not limited by trend direction. Whatever the trend direction is I will not be limited by it. I will only be limited by the market's interpretation and aptly so because the market isnt just a cycle or a trend. They are people with real interpretations and real perceptions. Seems rather callous to regard people as terms so reductive as cycles and trends. However as long as you are accurately making money thats all that matters. I love having these conversations though. You are very insightful my friend.
  • #323
  • Oct 26, 2025 6:05am Oct 26, 2025 6:05am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} {quote} Hey guys. I see 2 opposite ends of the spectrum here. A young fledgling just starting out in trading and an established trader looking for more consistency. I'd like you both or anyone else to test this system on demo and see your account grow before going live. I know I posted the 3 Keys system I used here earlier in the thread but perhaps it was over looked because of the arduous manual scanning. In that post I asked if anyone could code an auto scanner to automatically detect setups so that you can just wait for alerts and simply...
Thanks for that. It's on my list to test your system, as well as some of the other strategies/ideas presented here.
  • #324
  • Oct 26, 2025 9:22am Oct 26, 2025 9:22am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Interesting . I feel as though we mostly agree but we disagree on what should be emphasized. With SP500 I long with super high accuracy and short with the same accuracy because i trade only when buyers and sellers agree so goin short would not be a stupid use of funds but rather a viable highly recommended trade. It would seem that you are saying trend direction limits your trade direction. I have specific conditions that need to be met so I am already limited in those respects but I am not limited by trend direction. I specifically...
Yeah I think you're trying to make a point and argument out of something that isn't there - I'm not stuck to trend direction

If the trend is UP, I'll be long, if its down I'll be short

Your explanation shows you follow a trend within a trend etc - every swing on a price chart is a trend on some time-frame

LOL you've just shown me what I was doing back in 2013, albeit I use a slightly different method of getting the turns/reversals and then you try to make some sort of issue out of something i posted to sound clever lol

Well our thread creator friend sure could do with your help!
  • #325
  • Oct 26, 2025 10:34am Oct 26, 2025 10:34am
Quoting Thtpro
Well our thread creator friend sure could do with your help!

Yes, it might be a good system. I wanted to test the Renko chart strategy described by Medici, but I don't fully understand the rules yet. My idea was to code something so I could backtest it automatically, but for that, I would first need to come up with some quantitative rules.

PS. I also seem to have understood in theory what you have written so far about trends and cycles, but unfortunately I have no idea how to build a concrete system from it.
  • #326
  • Oct 26, 2025 11:08am Oct 26, 2025 11:08am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Yeah I think you're trying to make a point and argument out of something that isn't there - I'm not stuck to trend direction If the trend is UP, I'll be long, if its down I'll be short Your explanation shows you follow a trend within a trend etc - every swing on a price chart is a trend on some time-frame LOL you've just shown me what I was doing back in 2013, albeit I use a slightly different method of getting the turns/reversals and then you try to make some sort of issue out of something i posted to sound clever lol Well our thread creator...
No my friend you agree with me . I outlined your arguments and made my cases against them and actually got you to agree that perception of value causes cycles and trends. You concede that perception of value is the core essence of the market that causes whatever you decide to label the byproduct of this perception. You can label it cycles, trends but nothing happens until a trader forms their perception of value.

The difference between my style and yours is I rely on strong compelling interpretations backed by Nobel Prize winning work. In other words I know why the trend formed or why the counter trend formed(the reason why is the market's interpretation of targets).
I think you rely on the old adage trend is your friend but you dont know why the trend was formed. You are riding a current at sea not knowing why the current flows. You are at the whim of the sea. The trend isnt just your friend but it is a friend on which you are codependent. It is a codependent relationship you and this trend friend you have very toxic lol. I jest. Your trading style is fine as long as you get those green pips but just know however you label it you are essentially trading perceptions of value whether you admit it or not so in that sense we agree. I love agreement with traders.

You say its impossible to trade without a trend as price declines or rises and I do just that. You say I trade a trend within a trend and that was my original point in my first post to you. A downtrend on one time frame can be an uptrend on another. If you zoom in on my gbpcad you can argue in trading a trend within a trend. If you zoom out on my gbpcad long on the 4 hour daily chart it is literally declining and im longing a declining bearish candle in a downtrend lol.

You say you are not restricted by trend but in the same sentence you contradict yourself and say if the trend is up you go long..if trend is down you go short...So your trading is contingent or dependant upon a trend so that makes you stuck to trend my friend. Your argument is like a trend, always contradicting in nature as countertrends within a trend in a never ending cycle. Its almost poetic.

To me its all about RR and winrate and whether anyone can use the system and the setups are uniform. Same setup all the time. How objective was your system and high was your RR winrate back in 2013? How high are they now with your cyclic trends and can your current system be traded by anyone immediately? Just curious as I love to learn about anything that can enhance my trading. Wish you green pips trend friend.
  • #327
  • Oct 26, 2025 1:46pm Oct 26, 2025 1:46pm
Quoting triphop
{quote} I presume Medici meant buy-side, but rather than play gotcha with AI, learn about alpha decay. AFAIK no one denies its existence except you and the kind of people that'll sell you a hokey ORB strategy online for a round of mojitos. Listen, FWIW traders advice. Discretionary traders are often free and easy with telling you what they do; it's hard to copy but they're happy to teach. They've no concerns about alpha decay, what they're doing is too slippery to code. The more you veer into quant territory though, the faster the shutters come...
Thanks. Didn’t know there a word for it (alpha decay). What you say may be true and describes the problem I have. While discretionary trading approaches may be less likely to be copied and thus more likely to avoid the phenomenon of alpha decay, it doesn't help me if I can neither copy such an approach nor trade in a similar way myself, because my discretionary trading decisions aren't good in terms of the timing of entries and exists, especially if I add in poor risk management. I would go bankrupt faster than with a quantitative approach whose edge might be narrower and affected by alpha decay. So what's the solution?

https://turmanaube.medium.com/the-tr...e-d7782f4a3acd
  • #328
  • Oct 26, 2025 3:20pm Oct 26, 2025 3:20pm
Alligator with 200 EMA works on 15 min and above; Darvas works with 50 EMA on most time frames. But there are differences between trading instruments.
But before everything, stop loss, risk limiting, and position sizing needs to be learned.
https://tradershelp101.blogspot.com
  • #329
  • Oct 27, 2025 3:11am Oct 27, 2025 3:11am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} So what's the solution? https://turmanaube.medium.com/the-tr...e-d7782f4a3acd

Right. So everyone is affected by alpha decay, and the more a signal is exposed, the faster it decays. For every single trader. Either liquidity dries up or the signal itself deteriorates.

Given that, the idea of strangers gifting you a high sharpe, automatable, quantifiable strategy is unlikely, no? Directions and pointers for sure, but specifics? Not likely.

Discretionary traders adapt. Quants prune the losers in a portfolio of strategies. Portfolios smooth out returns. Funnily enough, no one in industry wants big drawdowns either.

The issue as I see it is that you want to become a quant but don't want to commit to it. So the answer? Do the work, and do it properly. We're in the golden age of AI - even I, with GCSE level maths - can knock up a fully working garch model in less than an hour. Claude code, Cursor, Kiro. Set up a natural language testing framework, then look for anything - even offer here - to quantify everything you come across.

Ideas > testing > execution.

You will learn invaluable skills doing this, you'll take ownership of your destiny rather than pinning it on strangers and dare I say, maybe even enjoy it.
  • #330
  • Oct 27, 2025 5:01am Oct 27, 2025 5:01am
Quoting triphop
Given that, the idea of strangers gifting you a high sharpe, automatable, quantifiable strategy is unlikely, no? Directions and pointers for sure, but specifics? Not likely.
Agree

Quote
Discretionary traders adapt.

Yes, I can understand that too. I agree that discretionary trading has the potential to adapt to changing market conditions in ways that a rigid systematic approach might not. However, this requires that you are a very good discretionary trader who can make the right manual decisions at any time, taking into account all additional factors, especially emotional control and discipline. I'm happy to admit that I'm not an elite discretionary trader. I also don't want/can't spend 8-10 hours a day analyzing and interpreting markets, and manually setting up trades. This cannot be sustainable and would only cause chaos for me. I want to achieve freedom and independence from trading. Otherwise, what would be the advantage of an office job where I stare at a screen for 8-10 hours a day and even get a risk-free fixed salary?

Quote
Quants prune the losers in a portfolio of strategies. Portfolios smooth out returns. Funnily enough, no one in industry wants big drawdowns either.
I was wondering the same thing. It seems unlikely that a single systematic strategy would deliver the kind of consistent short-term returns that would otherwise likely only be achieved with very large drawdowns. A portfolio of different systems that I could trade automatically sounds like a good idea to me. However, I'm having trouble finding a single system that even halfway works.

Quote
The issue as I see it is that you want to become a quant but don't want to commit to it. So the answer? Do the work, and do it properly.

You have good judgment. There's something to that. Yes, I'm unfortunately very affected by constant information overload, which unfortunately makes it difficult to concentrate on one thing (e.g. quantitative vs discretionary approach).

I would say that I should no longer care about the opinions and ideas of others. What holds me back are the bad experiences I've had with my own trading approaches, which, despite a lot of time and dedication, haven't produced even close to the results I so desperately need. If success proves you right, that's one thing, but if you don't achieve your goals despite all your efforts, it's not so sexy.

Quote
We're in the golden age of AI - even I, with GCSE level maths - can knock up a fully working garch model in less than an hour. Claude code, Cursor, Kiro. Set up a natural language testing framework, then look for anything - even offer here - to quantify everything you come across. Ideas > testing > execution. You will learn invaluable skills doing this, you'll take ownership of your destiny rather than pinning it on strangers and dare I say, maybe even enjoy it.

Yes. AI is getting better and better and can save you a lot of time if used correctly.
  • #331
  • Oct 27, 2025 5:01am Oct 27, 2025 5:01am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} No my friend you agree with me . I outlined your arguments and made my cases against them and actually got you to agree that perception of value causes cycles and trends. You concede that perception of value is the core essence of the market that causes whatever you decide to label the byproduct of this perception. You can label it cycles, trends but nothing happens until a trader forms their perception of value. The difference between my style and yours is I rely on strong compelling interpretations backed by Nobel Prize winning...
OK I will bow to your superiority and that nobel prize winning work - I just must have gotten real lucky in the 2010's riding those choppy waves and currents without having a clue

There's nothing new in the markets - Price moves because it has to, its up to individuals to figure out how best to make money from the moves

Win rates and RR are irrelevant, as long as it has a positive expectancy and the trader can handle trading it - You don't need to know what mine was just as I'm not interested in knowing yours, the method was exceptionally robust and not influenced by anything

You do not need to know exact levels for the market to win - you just need a method that wins, doesn't matter its win rate as long as it has a positive expectancy that is all that matters then you figure out how to exploit it

You don't need a nobel prize either or even a 10th of one - you just need a method that wins, its that simple and for the vast majority of traders out there, trading with a trend is the path of least resistance for them
  • #332
  • Oct 27, 2025 5:56am Oct 27, 2025 5:56am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Thanks. Didn’t know there a word for it (alpha decay). ...
Quote
So what's the solution?

To me the solution comprises five steps:

1. Get your house in order

To succeed in trading, automated or not, you and your life need to be in balance. This relates to questions such as "Are you fit to trade?" and "Do you know how to live?" These questions border on the psychological and spiritual, and many successful traders engage the help of psychologists/coaches and/or engage in spiritual practices such as meditation.

2. Check your presuppositions

Most beginners come to the market with unrealistic expectations and without understanding how the markets work, not to mention what is required for extracting regular profits from the market. To succeed in trading you need to overcome this ignorance.

3. Find your niche

Only now, having sorted out steps 1 and 2, is it time to start thinking about where in the market ecosystem you might fit in, and what kind of trading that would suit you. In spite of the fact that you haven’t sorted out steps 1 and 2, Thtpro and I have, from different perspectives, suggested that the swings in GBPUSD might be a good place to explore, even though that might have been premature.

4. Construct your mousetrap

With the first three steps covered it’s time to start constructing your first trading system. And if this is going to be successful it needs to take into account all the things you have learnt from the three previous steps. It’s personal in the end, and alpha decays in all niches, which is why you need to be proficient in building and modifying your very own mousetrap.

5. Monitor your mousetrap in operation

Having covered the first four steps, it’s finally time to start trading. And this will be more monitoring than doing. You will be trading with confidence, free from the self-concern that causes emotional reactions that inevitably will trip you up. And you will have the awareness and insight to know when alpha is starting to move away from your mousetrap, at which points you can go back to the earlier steps, maybe all the way back to step 2, to align yourself with the markets again.

And so on and so forth.
  • #333
  • Oct 27, 2025 6:10am Oct 27, 2025 6:10am
It's absolutely right to know your strengths and weaknesses, and discretionary takes a very special kind of mindset. I don't have it either, but don't fight it. Just embrace the other side which is quantitively driven insights only. Ignore everything else as noise. (Additional bonus - it disassociates you with your wins/losses. The only thing worse than a trader in despair is the trader crowing about owning the world as if they're the ferret of Farnborough. )

So the only job you have is to build that framework. I was using Excel for this when I first started. Don't do that. Build something good now and it'll save years and years in backtesting time. And do it well and you could sell it too - the implementations out there in the market look like they were coded by GPT 1.
  • #334
  • Oct 27, 2025 9:00am Oct 27, 2025 9:00am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} OK I will bow to your superiority and that nobel prize winning work - I just must have gotten real lucky in the 2010's riding those choppy waves and currents without having a clue There's nothing new in the markets - Price moves because it has to, its up to individuals to figure out how best to make money from the moves Win rates and RR are irrelevant, as long as it has a positive expectancy and the trader can handle trading it - You don't need to know what mine was just as I'm not interested in knowing yours, the method was exceptionally...
I agree with everything you just said except for the superiority thing. I hope you don't think I'm trying to assert superiority. I just had a contention with your statement that a main trend is needed to succeed in the markets and how the term main trend is relative in that a main trend on one timeframe can be a countertrend to a larger trend in a larger timeframe that's all. I focus on perception you focus on trend cycles but as I said what matters is making pips and I'm sure you make more pips than me to be fair as trend trading has way larger RR potential. Never would I dare suggest that you do not know what you are doing. I said the trend is like the sea and you follow the sea much like sailors do, but that does not mean sailors are not skilled in fact they are very skilled.

I define a great trader as one who can trade different markets easily with flexibility, trade any situation, and large RR profit consistently for a long period of time. By that definition I would say you are closer to this than I am. While you tied to the trend it is not limiting overall. I don't regard trend however I have so many other limiting conditions that I can only trade this one specific set of conditions which severely limits my versatility and trade frequency. So I am far from a great trader. However my goal was never to be a great trader but it was to find 1 way to extract funds from the markets that wins and that anyone can use repeatedly and systematically.

You have the ability to take trades with trend and your personal discretion and handle the trading psychology of it all which is what makes you a great trader but the vast majority of traders and casual investors and laymen who are trying to trade for the first time lack all of your skills and experience and psychological fortitude. I am trying to appeal to them especially the laymen and they need something the is strict mechanical easy to execute and wins consistently even if it is more restricting and does not generate as big returns as trend trading. Thats the only reason why I asked for your stats because If I ever find a system that meets those goals and is less restricting than the system I trade now I will literally drop my system and go trade that haha. Im not married to ideology. I just want something anyone can trade comfortably without stress and with high confidence. I never meant this to be a competition just dialogue and inquiry. I wish you green pips my friend.
  • #335
  • Oct 27, 2025 9:12am Oct 27, 2025 9:12am
Ok with this setup the descending pivot occurred on a different candle then the original failure to reach candle. The concept is the same though essentially but it is preferred that these 2 things happen in the same candle. Just testing this scenario.
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  • #336
  • Oct 27, 2025 9:43am Oct 27, 2025 9:43am
  •  amvt
  • Joined Feb 2025 | Status: Developer by Choice Trader by Heart | 202 Posts
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} No my friend you agree with me . I outlined your arguments and made my cases against them and actually got you to agree that perception of value causes cycles and trends. You concede that perception of value is the core essence of the market that causes whatever you decide to label the byproduct of this perception. You can label it cycles, trends but nothing happens until a trader forms their perception of value. The difference between my style and yours is I rely on strong compelling interpretations backed by Nobel Prize winning...
Going a bit off topic, but I feel as if this could spark some interesting debate.

I have a strategy that I developed and I have never lost when trading it. I am not trying to say that I have the ultimate strategy blah blah. I loose because of own carelessness. The point I am trying to assert is a bit philosophical in nature: If my strategy works, does that mean, the tools that I use control the behavior of the market? Have I discovered some sort of a "law". And everybody is...just wrong?

The plain answer is, of course not! People make money by trading normal indicators like RSI, or price action and more recently order flow. But, how is that, the market is being analyzed from all of these different tools and people are making money? or loosing money? How is that when I put on a trade using my tools, someone else is putting on that exact trade using different tools, achieving the same result? Is it luck? Coincidence? But, coincidence/luck can only happen for so long. It's been almost a century!

I personally believe, the answer is the multi-dimensional nature of the market. Some people say, fractal, some people say non-linear, other's even say markets are efficient. But, if something is multi-dimensional, it's beyond our understanding. Structures exists within structures. It's the kind of description that our English dictionary has no words for. But. it's really interesting to see when people debate their methods/ideologies where they have different "terminologies" or "concepts" or even "perspectives" but achieve the same results more or less
.
The same nobel prize winners who have established the decade's old "Efficient Market Hypothesis" was broken by other nobel prize winners. So, who's telling the right thing? The educated? Or the market's own nature?

Due to the respect of the thread starter, I won't continue with the discussion, but sharingan and thtpro discussion reminded of this "phenomenon", if you like to call it that.
— Developed by MMQ
  • #337
  • Oct 27, 2025 10:18am Oct 27, 2025 10:18am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} I agree with everything you just said except for the superiority thing. I hope you don't think I'm trying to assert superiority. I just had a contention with your statement that a main trend is needed to succeed in the markets and how the term main trend is relative in that a main trend on one timeframe can be a countertrend to a larger trend in a larger timeframe that's all. I focus on perception you focus on trend cycles but as I said what matters is making pips and I'm sure you make more pips than me to be fair as trend trading has way...
Yeah no probs or hard feelings

I probably didn't explain things well

All you need is to find a method that suits your personality, has a positive expectancy and it will allow you to extract money from the market

Whatever works, as long as it works, then exploit it

I just personally like anything with a high win rate - I don't like drawdowns

All my methods have a minimum win rate of 85% - then I can decide if I trade it on a get in get fast basis or whether I let it run, which depends on the day, in the 2010's I invariably let positions run, but now I can choose

If you can trade for 5+ years producing consistent profits, in my book that person is a great trader - this business is ultra hard
  • #338
  • Oct 27, 2025 10:30am Oct 27, 2025 10:30am
Quoting amvt
{quote} Going a bit off topic, but I feel as if this could spark some interesting debate. I have a strategy that I developed and I have never lost when trading it. I am not trying to say that I have the ultimate strategy blah blah. I loose because of own carelessness. The point I am trying to assert is a bit philosophical in nature: If my strategy works, does that mean, the tools that I use control the behavior of the market? Have I discovered some sort of a "law". And everybody is...just wrong? The plain answer is, of course not! People make money...
Good post, I totally agree with your views.

I'd like to thank everyone for their good contributions. There's a lot of intelligence gathered here. I just hope to be able to derive something productive from this to help me achieve my goals. So far this has always been my problem.
  • #339
  • Oct 27, 2025 11:32am Oct 27, 2025 11:32am
Quoting amvt
{quote} Going a bit off topic, but I feel as if this could spark some interesting debate. I have a strategy that I developed and I have never lost when trading it. I am not trying to say that I have the ultimate strategy blah blah. I loose because of own carelessness. The point I am trying to assert is a bit philosophical in nature: If my strategy works, does that mean, the tools that I use control the behavior of the market? Have I discovered some sort of a "law". And everybody is...just wrong? The plain answer is, of course not! People make money...
Most don't - academics never trade, they are just academics

The trick is to just test test test and test more - If you keep on finding certain things, it means something, which is why I mention cycles so much

If you find that a 3.33pm you look out of your window and a pink penguin appears and you win on a trade over and over again, then when you see that pink penguin at 3.33pm its game on trade time

Said it before we are forced to view on a 2 dimensional screen - that is part of the problem

I posted another screenshot of our Walter on page 2 - very sage words from 1991 and he'd been trading for years before that - I don't agree with his Elliott Wave mention though

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If you mix the cycle with the trend and an oscillator you can produce ultra high win rates - page 2 shows that in the Bressert screenshot I posted, what he doesn't show you is the Indicator

Now the next page of that publication by Bressert (above) goes on to show a cycle that has a 100% win rate since 1789 that is 236 years of stock market action with 1 cycle producing a 100% win rate and its next occurrence is arriving very very soon
  • #340
  • Oct 27, 2025 11:48am Oct 27, 2025 11:48am
Quoting amvt
{quote} Going a bit off topic, but I feel as if this could spark some interesting debate. I have a strategy that I developed and I have never lost when trading it. I am not trying to say that I have the ultimate strategy blah blah. I loose because of own carelessness. The point I am trying to assert is a bit philosophical in nature: If my strategy works, does that mean, the tools that I use control the behavior of the market? Have I discovered some sort of a "law". And everybody is...just wrong? The plain answer is, of course not! People make money...

Interesting. There is a multidimensionality to the markets but I do not believe it is beyond our understanding as if it were somehow only known by the divine or something. I think we understand it hence the reason why we crafted the term multidimensional. It is the premise that is incorrect and that premise is "being right or wrong". If I and a group of people are in a dark maze and only one has a map and a light and he says "Sharigan the exits this way" and I'm right behind this person and follow his every move and he finds the exit was I right in which way the exit was? No. Was I wrong? no. I was just following the guy that can get me there. Trading is no different.

Trades are made because someone has formed an interpretation or a reason why they feel price will move in a direction a certain direction and there are countless interpretations. Lets take for example a bullish interpretation. There are many different bullish interpretations which leads to market movement. Different traders will have different strategies and tools that are based on any one of these interpretations so now we have 4 differing factors: Different Traders, Different interpretations, Different strategies, Different tools. However what is the commonality? They are bullish. So lets say all of them win there bullish trades. Why did they win? The answer is simple.

The bullish nature of the interpretation was shared by those that can move the markets(financial institutions) meaning in the group of bullish traders with bullish interpretations were financial institutions that agreed with the bullish prediction even if their interpretation was different or the same as some of the other bullish traders. So it isnt a matter of being right or wrong. Its a matter of being in line with those that move the markets whether you have the same interpretation as them or the same bullish nature of interpretation. Whoever is best in line with them(whether intentionally or otherwise) will be the most consistent.
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