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Trading for a living

  • #301
  • Oct 24, 2025 10:59am Oct 24, 2025 10:59am
Hi everyone,
I'm an 18 year old student from Sweden who have been battling to find an edge in the forex market(EURUSD,GBPUSD,XAUUSD) for over a year now and it would mean a lot to me if someone (preferably a profitable trader) could help me get back on the right track. (A little context before I explain my trading strategy and ask my questions) I'am not struggling with being discipline(moving up/down my SL/TP, changing strategies, exiting trades too early etc), I always journal my trades with details whether I lose a trade or win one, I sometimes trade future, indices and crypto just to explore how my strategy work on other pairs, and I often watch educational youtube videos about trading(I'm open for suggestions).

Here is an overview of how my current trading strategy is structured. My school day typically ends between 13:00–14:00 UTC, which limits me to only trading shortly after the New York session opens. Before analyzing the charts, I first check for any high-impact economic news or bank holiday. I then mark key market levels, including the London session high and low, the Asian session high and low, the daily high and low, as well as the previous day’s high and low. If price takes out the London session high, I move down to the 5-minute timeframe to identify a reliable bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) that formed prior to the sweep. I will only take a short position if price returns to and invalidates that FVG, aiming for approximately a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. I'm very strict when it comes to trade criteria and only execute trades that meet a B-grade or higher setup quality.

Although I trade cautiously, I am still not profitable.

My primary question is am I doing anything wrong here?
Another challenge I am facing is that my setups appear very infrequently. I'm consider changing my strategy or at least trying a new one along with this one, any suggestions?
The reason I decided to learn trading was to earn a significant amount of money in a short period of time. However, my motivation has changed, I now trade because I genuinely enjoy the process and hope to make trading a meaningful part of my life. Therefore, my third question is: Is it truly possible to make a sustainable living from trading?
  • #302
  • Oct 24, 2025 11:34am Oct 24, 2025 11:34am
Quoting Uername
Hi everyone, I'm an 18 year old student from Sweden who have been battling to find an edge in the forex market(EURUSD,GBPUSD,XAUUSD) for over a year now and it would mean a lot to me if someone (preferably a profitable trader) could help me get back on the right track. (A little context before I explain my trading strategy and ask my questions) I'am not struggling with being discipline(moving up/down my SL/TP, changing strategies, exiting trades too early etc), I always journal my trades with details whether I lose a trade or win one, I sometimes...
I can probably help you, but I can't message you. This thread is probably not the place to discuss because its Noisy thread but if you contact me I can help - not money I'm not looking for money, or anyone to coach but I can guide you, answer questions. You seem switched on for a young person, and I can tell already you're going to be fine in life. I'd be happy to help, turn messages on or get past your post limit and I'll help you.
  • #303
  • Oct 24, 2025 11:42am Oct 24, 2025 11:42am
Quoting Thtpro
The VERY FACT people MAKE PROFITS, is BECAUSE they HAVE followed a trend - it is physically impossible to make money from the markets without follow a trend
Yes, in that sense. I think what AI and I meant is that you don't have to be a "long-term trend follower." Of course, there are microtrends in every time frame; the question is how well they can be traded.
  • #304
  • Oct 24, 2025 11:55am Oct 24, 2025 11:55am
Quoting Uername
Hi everyone, I'm an 18 year old student from Sweden who have been battling to find an edge in the forex market(EURUSD,GBPUSD,XAUUSD) for over a year now and it would mean a lot to me if someone (preferably a profitable trader) could help me get back on the right track. (A little context before I explain my trading strategy and ask my questions) I'am not struggling with being discipline(moving up/down my SL/TP, changing strategies, exiting trades too early etc), I always journal my trades with details whether I lose a trade or win one, I sometimes...
I think you're on the right track. Most traders enter the market as if they know everything. This field requires humility and the ability to learn. I think if you keep watching what they say here, you might pick up a thing or two and learn them. There is a person called deal. You can learn a lot from him. I follow him personally. His advice is useful.
  • #305
  • Oct 24, 2025 1:04pm Oct 24, 2025 1:04pm
Quoting has22v
{quote} I think you're on the right track. Most traders enter the market as if they know everything. This field requires humility and the ability to learn. I think if you keep watching what they say here, you might pick up a thing or two and learn them. There is a person called deal. You can learn a lot from him. I follow him personally. His advice is useful.
Thanks for the advice, appreciate it!
  • #306
  • Oct 24, 2025 2:05pm Oct 24, 2025 2:05pm
Quoting Uername
Hi everyone, I'm an 18 year old student from Sweden who have been battling to find an edge in the forex market(EURUSD,GBPUSD,XAUUSD) for over a year now and it would mean a lot to me if someone (preferably a profitable trader) could help me get back on the right track. (A little context before I explain my trading strategy and ask my questions) I'am not struggling with being discipline(moving up/down my SL/TP, changing strategies, exiting trades too early etc), I always journal my trades with details whether I lose a trade or win one, I sometimes...
it's absolutely possible to earn a good living from trading. However, many traders struggle to achieve consistent success.
Here is my X. Post every hour.
  • #307
  • Oct 24, 2025 6:35pm Oct 24, 2025 6:35pm
Maybe something worth testing.

Inserted Video
  • #308
  • Oct 24, 2025 7:43pm Oct 24, 2025 7:43pm
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} If the overall trend on a weekly chart was UP for months, the smart thing to do would be to go long when prices bottoms out and resume the overall trend direction and also trade the corrections (down trends) short - BOTH follow the relevant TREND in play at the time So even if the method isn't called trend following, it HAS to follow a trend of some sort to make money - mean reversion, reverts to the mean, from the extreme to the mean it has followed a trend I've made £10,000's by being counter trend - but in reality all I was doing was...
Everything you say simply contradicts itself because the nature of a trend is contradictory. You mention an overall trend was up for months so you would go long and that would be going with the trend. However what if that same chart was down for years? Arent you now going countertrend? The answer is yes and yes. You are going with the trend on one timeframe and against the trend on another at the same time. The simultaneous and inconceivable oneness and duality where 2 opposites occur at the same time is inherently what any trend is. A trend is countering. What if the SP 500 were to drop for down for 8 months and you saw this on weekly chart? According to your logic the smart thing to do would be to sell. However the SNP has been going up since 2010 lol so you would actually be countering the trend.

Its less about trends and more about what really forms market movement which is the perception of value. The key is to trade when both buyers and sellers(those that can move the market) have the same perception of value.
  • #309
  • Oct 25, 2025 2:15am Oct 25, 2025 2:15am
Quoting Noisy
Maybe something worth testing. https://youtu.be/9HGHnP0cUq0?si=9ZK2s7ecuT5kcdkz
Yes, worth testing and, as the presenter suggests, "go away and play with", but there are several aspects of the performance claims that are more than questionable - Sharpe ratio, profit:drawdown, max drawdown, etc, which all point to either testing under favourable conditions or other sources of error. One may note that no forward testing has been done after the backtesting, the details of which are scarce.

Generally speaking, I have difficulties tolerating more than seconds of this guy. He usually makes exaggerated claims, while having some sound nuggets of useful information in there, among some less valuable things.

So, yes, "go away and play with", but don't take at face value.
  • #310
  • Oct 25, 2025 3:51am Oct 25, 2025 3:51am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, in that sense. I think what AI and I meant is that you don't have to be a "long-term trend follower." Of course, there are microtrends in every time frame; the question is how well they can be traded.
That is the question indeed
  • #311
  • Oct 25, 2025 4:27am Oct 25, 2025 4:27am
Quoting Noisy
Maybe something worth testing. https://youtu.be/9HGHnP0cUq0?si=9ZK2s7ecuT5kcdkz
Is this bollinger inside keltner and then break outside bollinger?

I'm British and that voice - like nails on a blackboard
  • #312
  • Oct 25, 2025 6:28am Oct 25, 2025 6:28am
Quoting medici
{quote} Yes, worth testing and, as the presenter suggests, "go away and play with", but there are several aspects of the performance claims that are more than questionable - Sharpe ratio, profit:drawdown, max drawdown, etc, which all point to either testing under favourable conditions or other sources of error. One may note that no forward testing has been done after the backtesting, the details of which are scarce. Generally speaking, I have difficulties tolerating more than seconds of this guy. He usually makes exaggerated claims, while having...
Thank you. That reflects my own impression. This shows once again how difficult it is to find reliable and quality trading information. Like you, I immediately wondered whether his backtest results for the strategy presented weren't a bit too good to be true. Presumably, this wasn't a robust backtest over a sufficient period of time under fluctuating market conditions, as the presenter did there.

I can't say anything about the person himself. I've watched two of his videos about Renko Trading so far. He seems relatively honest to me. In one video, he says he worked for a Japanese investment bank in the 1990s, which should suggest a certain level of expertise, but yes, that could also be misleading. Of course, he also sells books and "master classes." Whether that's always a direct red flag is hard to say. However, it seems to hold true for most mentors/gurus.

On the technical issues of the matter.

1.) What use is a strategy to me that only performs well under optimal market conditions (which in turn are only visible in retrospect) but would result in too many losses in a market phase that would not be optimal for the strategy.

2.) What use is a strategy whose essential promise of success is based on an ideal market condition (e.g. a trending market) especially if this type of market condition only occurs in a small fraction of the cases within the period in which you want to be profitable with the strategy or not only that, but even want/need to achieve a certain minimum performance (i.e. +2-3%/month).

- For example, if I want/need to be profitable at the end of a month, what good is a "trend-following" strategy when 80% of the days are characterized by sideways phases full of chop? A trading month has an average of 21 days, so 16.8 of those days would be rather unsuitable for such a strategy.

So I could:

A) Execute all valid entry signals my strategy provides without consideration of the optimal market conditions (and still achieve the required minimum profitability overall).
B) Try to filter out the rather unsuitable signals in advance in order to increase profitability <- This is the approach based on the motto "accuracy" instead of not giving a damn about accuracy as long as I'm still sufficiently profitable. I have already tried all kinds of filters, including with regard to the ORB, and my conclusion is that it is simply impossible to filter out the trend days from the typical non-trend days with the necessary accuracy. Otherwise why not everyone would wait and trade the trending days and become a billionaire in no time?

In my opinion, I need a robust approach that will give me the results I need regardless of market condition. Otherwise, I would probably only be able to keep myself busy by constantly filtering for the ideal market conditions and signs that these might have changed or have already changed and I would have to adjust my strategy accordingly.

What does AI say?

Since you asked how often trend vs sideways-days happen, here are some takeaway points:

If you’re trading on a medium horizon (weeks to months), you’re more likely to see trending behaviour than mean-reversion.

  1. If you’re trading very short term (intra‐day) or very long term (multi-year), you’ll see more mean-reversion (or at least a tendency to revert).
  2. But the switch between regimes isn’t predictable in a simple way. A market that’s been “trending” might revert, stay trending longer than expected, or even enter a new trend.
  3. Because of that, relying exclusively on “the market always trends” or “the market always reverts” is risky.

  • #313
  • Edited 8:59am Oct 25, 2025 7:42am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Thank you. That reflects my own impression. This shows once again how difficult it is to find reliable and quality trading information. Like you, I immediately wondered whether his backtest results for the strategy presented weren't a bit too good to be true. Presumably, this wasn't a robust backtest over a sufficient period of time under fluctuating market conditions, as the presenter did there. I can't say anything about the person himself. I've watched two of his videos about Renko Trading so far. He seems relatively honest to me. In...
Of what use to you? Well, I've suggested an approach that, as opposed to the contents of this video, is not subject to serious doubt. I guarantee you that if you do your homework you will be able to find something that meets your expectations of regular income.

So it's up to you to discover and classify the setups: trend, mean-reversion, etc, and to identify those of high-caliber (AAA if you like), as well as the individual statistics of the different setups. After that you can begin trading or forward testing in a semi-automated way, using ATMs, i.e. placing stop entry orders (with preset stop and limit levels) on the chart when setups appear (and so follow the strategy). In that way you will discover your "robust approach that will give me the results I need regardless of market condition". When you've done that sufficiently you can start thinking about automating, etc, etc. Only your skills, abilities, and creativity set limits to what you can achieve.
  • #314
  • Oct 25, 2025 7:46am Oct 25, 2025 7:46am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Everything you say simply contradicts itself because the nature of a trend is contradictory. You mention an overall trend was up for months so you would go long and that would be going with the trend. However what if that same chart was down for years? Arent you now going countertrend? The answer is yes and yes. You are going with the trend on one timeframe and against the trend on another at the same time. The simultaneous and inconceivable oneness and duality where 2 opposites occur at the same time is inherently what any trend is. A trend...
Yes but the counter trend is just that, a trend within an overall trend! There's no laws that say if you are overall long, you can't short downtrends

On the SP500, if its down for 8 months, you'd be shorting it on the daily time-frame and lower time-frames - the 8 month counter-trend is a correction in a larger trend, BUT its STILL a TREND and THE CURRENT TREND, at some point (hence my previous posts on cycle analysis) it bottoms and turns back up which at that point you trade long again

The SP500 [USA stock markets, DJIA prior to the SP500] have been going UP since 1792 - that doesn't mean you can't short or sit in cash when the corrective downtrends happen

Quote
The key is to trade when both buyers and sellers(those that can move the market) have the same perception

EXACTLY - and that creates the trends! and those buyers and sellers work out to cycles, which this next chart proves

SP500 Index - this is just ONE of the cycles that the SP500 works out to - AS the SP500 is in a long-term UP trend and I mean bigger than what is shown on the chart, the path of least resistance will be to trade LONG, on the cycle lows once price CONFIRMS a reversal

You can also trade short the peaks down to the lows because they will also at some point create the LOWS to trade long, but as you can see, that is not as plain cut - So you can't just blindly trade, you have to use a bit of brain power

some peak to troughs will be biggish, some small - these are just bonus moves, the real value are the LOWS, because the overall trend is UP

Now no-one can deny that that CYCLE and TREND PREDICTION has not matched the trend based on that cycle length
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Cycles within cycles, within cycles - its even in the bible, "wheels within wheels"

This is just one of the SMALLER cycles at play on the SP500 - it does NOT control the bigger moves, notice OCT 2022, this cycle we're looking at signalled a high/top, but OCT 2022 came in as a low - the cycle DID'NT FAIL, another bigger cycle was at play and came in as a low as expected

So you can't just blindly say this or that, you have to look at all the layers playing out and as Medici mentioned in his AI content, Fractals are playing out

At the end of the day when you test test test and test something and the hit rate works out ultra high, you can't ignore it, then you look for ways to exploit it financially

I'm not saying you have to become a cycle expert or anything - I just use them because I can time the markets with them and that gives me a huge edge over everyone

I credit my success to cycles and trends - self learnt and taught as well
  • #315
  • Oct 25, 2025 8:23am Oct 25, 2025 8:23am
Quoting M31
{quote} Is this bollinger inside keltner and then break outside bollinger?
Quote
I'm British and that voice - like nails on a blackboard

Couldn't have put it better.
  • #316
  • Oct 25, 2025 8:45am Oct 25, 2025 8:45am
Quoting medici
{quote} Of what use to you? Well, I've suggested an approach that, as opposed to the contents of this video, is not subject to serious doubt. I guarantee you that if you do your homework you will be able to find something that meets your expectations of regular income. So it's up to you to discover and classify the setups: trend, mean-reversion, etc, and to identify those of high-caliber (AAA if you like), as well as the individual statistics of the different setups. After that you can begin trading or forward testing in a semi-automated way, using...

Yes, I agree. I need to take another look at what you wrote regarding your Renko strategy idea so I can actually begin to backtest it and possibly do some live forward demo trading for my available time window on the side. I haven't fully understood it yet, hence my previous questions about how I should possibly deal with the amount of signals or what the exact entry and exit rules are. Yes, I understand that you don't have time for that and that I have to dig through it myself.

I just took another look at the ProRealTime platform. It looks really good, and I've now figured out how to use Renko charts there. They also seem to have very good configuration options, including accessing the Renko charts with tick-by-tick data and being able to conduct historical tick-by-tick backtests. Unfortunately, the latter is only limited to apparently 1 million historical ticks, which would only provide a short history.

I took a look and for the tick data that I exported to backtest my ORB strategy, I have 14 years of historical tick data for the S&P 500, which amounts to 167 million ticks.

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Tradovate provides tick-by-tick data history for up to one year

TradingView's built-in Renko charts do not use tick-by-tick data by default, nor do I believe you can get any historical tick-by-tick data going back a longer period of time.

NinjaTrader's built-in historical tick data goes back for up to 1 year through its Historical Data Servers
  • #317
  • Edited 12:46pm Oct 25, 2025 10:35am | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting Thtpro
{quote}the 8 month counter-trend is a correction in a larger trend, BUT its STILL a TREND and THE CURRENT TREND, at some point (hence my previous posts on cycle analysis) it bottoms and turns back up which at that point you trade long again........ EXACTLY - and that creates the trends! and those buyers and sellers work out to cycles, which this next chart proves SP500 Index - this is just ONE of the cycles that the SP500 works out to - AS the SP500 is in a long-term UP trend and I mean bigger than what is shown on the chart, the path of least resistance...
Quoting Thtpro
{quote}If ANYONE knows how you place a long trade when price is declining and make money from the declining price let us know because if we can do that, we'd never have a problem of losing - If price is DECLING the TREND no matter how short, is DOWN, you make money by being SHORT in a downtrend The VERY FACT people MAKE PROFITS, is BECAUSE they HAVE followed a trend - it is physically impossible to make money from the markets without follow a trend and as I originally pointed out to you, trends are cycles and cycles happen all the way through a...
You're correct about a lot of things such as cycles and trends being profitable I'm sure. My points of contention with your arguments are only 2 points:

1. You claim following cycles and trends are the least path of resistance and also "the real move"(bigger pay off) while counters can be traded but they require more work for less reward(lesser pay off). My contention with your argument is that you freely agree with my earlier statement which is the perception of value is what causes these trends so if one already can understand the perception of value one could circumvent the entire cyclic trend process since he/she already knows what causes these trends and cycles which is the perception of value. If one knows the perception of value one can enter trades before these dominant trends and cycles even form. By this logic if one understands the perception of value he/she can also predict counter trends with the same ease because perception of value causes countertrends trends and all market movements. So the notion that trends are easier to predict than counter trends, while certainly true for a trend trader, is rendered erroneous inapplicable and meaningless to a perception of value trader especially if the value trader can even understand the interpretations that caused the perception of value in the first place. So the value trade can trade unencumbered by this trend superiority notion and trade irrespective of trend.

2. You claim it impossible to go long on declining prices but if one understands the core of auction theory(Nobel Prize winning work btw not once but twice) which is the essence of all markets he/she understands the core progression of auction theory which is Interpretations form Market Sentiment which forms the perception of value. You agreed that buyers and sellers sharing the same perception of value is what causes trends. Well a value trader can see where buyers and sellers have a shared interpretation which leads to their shared perception of value and the areas where buyers and sellers interpretation agrees the most is reversal targets. Seller selling and reaching the targets close trades because they interpret the target as a place where price will rise so their perception of value is a price at higher prices so they stop selling. Buyers looking to buy also see the same target as where sellers will stop selling and buyers will start buyer so they interpret the same target as place where price will rise and they buy. At this target, sellers perception of value = price at higher prices(they think price will go up) so they stop selling. Buyers have the same perception of value which is price at higher prices(they think price will go up) so they start buying and this agreement is what leads to a reversal to the upside where the value of the asset increases. If you trade with both buyers and sellers on your side it makes it very difficult for you to lose. With trends, you only really have one side of the market on your side depending on where you are in the trend.
  • #318
  • Oct 25, 2025 1:47pm Oct 25, 2025 1:47pm
Quoting M31
{quote} Is this bollinger inside keltner and then break outside bollinger? I'm British and that voice - like nails on a blackboard
I think he just wanted to show that BB looks similar to Keltner Channel.
  • #319
  • Oct 25, 2025 1:58pm Oct 25, 2025 1:58pm
I haven't looked at much algo but bollinger inside keltner, then close outside top bollinger band on gold, is best Ive seen. Profit factor was 2, no optimisation, default settings, no sells. Think it was 10000 to 12000 in a month, or somewhere around that value. It was pretty accurate, targeting consolidation and then break, stop I was scanning lowest low within 5 bars, going breakeven, partials and trailing stop after a percentage.
  • #320
  • Edited Oct 26, 2025 2:10pm Oct 25, 2025 5:14pm | Edited Oct 26, 2025 2:10pm
Quoting Uername
Hi everyone, I'm an 18 year old student from Sweden However, my motivation has changed, I now trade because I genuinely enjoy the process and hope to make trading a meaningful part of my life. Therefore, my third question is: Is it truly possible to make a sustainable living from trading?
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I'll just keep trying until I either run out of energy and all hope disappears (which is already pretty much the case), or I succeed. What else can I do?
Hey guys. I see 2 opposite ends of the spectrum here. A young fledgling just starting out in trading and an established trader looking for more consistency. I'd like you both or anyone else to test this system on demo and see your account grow before going live. I know I posted the 3 Keys system I used here earlier in the thread but perhaps it was over looked because of the arduous manual scanning. In that post I asked if anyone could code an auto scanner to automatically detect setups so that you can just wait for alerts and simply take the trade once the last conditions are met.

Well thanks to my French coder friend TooFar who is an excellent coder and thanks to AI, I now have a sophisticated 3 Keys Auto Scanner that automatically scans the setups for you. You dont have to do manually scan anymore. Just load the template, set how often you want to be alerted and let it run and wait for a signal. You can test other strategies while you wait for these scanner signals so it will not be a burden to test. Its all free. I am not selling anything and never will. I would just like this to be tested so it can help people in the future on a larger scale all for free. So please be my guinea pigs if you'd be so kind and test this. It is very accurate. Every set up is the same. Below you will find the videos I created that detail the logic behind the system as well as rules. Also below I have a video of live trades I took this week using the scanner and you will understand how the scanner works and how simple it is. You all will most likely take the same trades I do because we will get the same alerts most times and you will see the accuracy.

I completely reject the notion that the only way to make it as a trader is to hone your skills and find your own way. You can also stumble upon or discover a way or be taught a way that is objective systematic and rule based.

Templates, Indicators and more here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...XC?usp=sharing
Full 3 Keys System Playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL...7X1aq2oQsOUMng
Prezi Presentation: https://prezi.com/view/H2a8iqLLJo4Yc...n=CUe493lnB3FN
All of this is free. I will never sell you anything.

Video of how to use the scanner and me taking live trades using the scanner:

How 3 Keys Auto Scanner Detects Setups Automatically(Real trade examples included)

You all see what happened to GBPCAD shot after the scanner alerted me and the conditions were met here but watch the video first to get an understanding:
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