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Trading for a living

  • #281
  • Oct 23, 2025 11:07am Oct 23, 2025 11:07am
Quoting medici
{quote} Very well, but I am not going to engage in that level of discussion. This is the kind of development work you need to be able to handle on your own. Some have evidently been able to do it brilliantly. Do you have what it takes to make it as a trader?
In your eyes I probably don’t. Anyhow, thanks for your help! Will find something that works for me or not, whatever happens first ;-)
  • #282
  • Oct 23, 2025 11:11am Oct 23, 2025 11:11am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} In your eyes I probably don’t. Anyhow, thanks for your help! Will find something that works for me or not, whatever happens first ;-)

It's not about my eyes; it's about your trading results. If you need coaching or training, there are providers of that. Etc.
  • #283
  • Oct 23, 2025 1:53pm Oct 23, 2025 1:53pm
Quoting medici
{quote} It's not about my eyes; it's about your trading results. If you need coaching or training, there are providers of that. Etc.
Yes, I just don't have the money for personal coaching right now. I seriously considered it two years ago when I was still a bit more liquid, but my research and inquiries with several providers in the field didn't give me much hope to find real targeted help of someone actually interested and knowledgeable to show you how to achieve a clear goal in trading.

It’s then all about indicators, strategies this and that but in the end you’re pretty much left alone with all the real important aspects putting the puzzle together, like how to create a trading plan that fits one’s personal style, including a strategy, a daily routine, risk/money management, capital requirements and so on.

I'll just keep trying until I either run out of energy and all hope disappears (which is already pretty much the case), or I succeed. What else can I do?
  • #284
  • Oct 23, 2025 4:27pm Oct 23, 2025 4:27pm
Quoting Thtpro
The thing with trading and Investing is (unless you mess around with options) you HAVE to follow the TREND
AI disagrees! ;-)
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  • #285
  • Edited 4:56pm Oct 23, 2025 4:41pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting medici
{quote} There are several good reasons for why you should give up your ORB fantasy, the most obvious one being that it's well known that market makers have done their best to eradicate whatever profitability that it may have had
The idea that market makers destroy trading edges once they are well-known is largely a myth; market makers primarily focus on providing liquidity and balancing their books, not on arbitrarily crushing individual traders' strategies. While market makers do take advantage of irrational trading and "flush out" weak players by moving price to pools of liquidity like stop-loss orders, this is a normal part of the market, and many traders can use limit orders to work alongside them to achieve fair value.

Why the myth exists

  1. Market makers "hunt" stops:
    Market makers may take advantage of price levels where a high concentration of stop-loss orders are placed, as this provides a pool of liquidity. When they move the price in that direction, it can look like they are intentionally targeting stop-loss orders to trigger them.
  2. Balancing their books:
    A market maker's main goal is to manage the risk from their positions. If they are heavily long a stock, they may need to sell to become more balanced. To encourage selling and balance their book, they might move the price up to a point where more buyers are willing to transact with them, or they might move the price down to trigger sell orders from stop-losses.
  3. Psychology of trading:
    The emotional nature of trading often leads people to believe that market makers are "against them" when they suffer a loss, rather than examining their own strategy and risk management.

Why the myth is a myth

  1. Liquidity providers:
    Market makers' primary function is to ensure there is always a buyer for every seller, and vice versa. By quoting buy and sell prices, they help create a liquid and stable market for all participants.
  2. Delta-neutral framework:
    Market makers often aim to remain delta-neutral, meaning they balance their risk on both sides of a trade, not betting on price direction.
  3. Fair value pricing:
    By continuously quoting prices, market makers help ensure that the price reflects the true supply and demand, rather than subject it to sudden, erratic movements.
  4. Trader agency:
    Traders can use limit orders to set their desired price and can avoid chasing the market, which allows them to trade closer to fair value and avoid situations where a market maker might take advantage of their trades

  • #286
  • Oct 23, 2025 7:19pm Oct 23, 2025 7:19pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} The idea that market makers destroy trading edges once they are well-known is largely a myth; market makers primarily focus on providing liquidity and balancing their books, not on arbitrarily crushing individual traders' strategies. While market makers do take advantage of irrational trading and "flush out" weak players by moving price to pools of liquidity like stop-loss orders, this is a normal part of the market, and many traders can use limit orders to work alongside them to achieve fair value. Why the myth exists Market makers "hunt"...

@Noisy

Start immediately, stop wasting time in Forex Factory.
There are too few good man here trading for their living.

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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #287
  • Edited 9:13pm Oct 23, 2025 8:06pm | Edited 9:13pm
You can make a living trading, it is possible, it's hard but so is any other form of self employment or sole trader type occupations.

The limiting factors are time and psychology.

You need time in front of charts. Over 2000 - 6000 hours, It's 3 years of trading full time sat in front of the computer, 8hrs a day, watching the day to day movement before you really start to become competent. Unfortunately, there is no substitute for this, and this is where switching from full-time employment to trading is difficult. It's like professional sports, trading depends on the time you put into training and just like professional sports, your performance is affected by stress and life issues. Making that switch is difficult; you have to be well-established and have savings to do it properly. I have to pay bills, manage taxes, save for emergencies, and grow my capital.

Psychology - this is your hardest barrier to overcome. Depending on you as an individual, you need to find something that works for you, something you trust and something you enjoy doing. Unless you are by default a self disciplined, patient, methodical, not impulsive person, you are going to have problems with psychology at some stage and if its not fixed fast you will have other problems like fear. You can easily lose a year due to this.

I haven't tried but for an algo to be a profitable long term income source rather than an investment plan, I don't think its possible without constant fine-tuning and tinkering. A chart in January will have a different look to it by the middle and end of the year, and you will have to adapt your algo to this, maybe even change the core of it. A human adapts to this naturally.

I have no regrets, its the best, most satisfying thing I have done or accomplished but at times it has been difficult, I can't describe how miserable it made me. It is really hard on family and relationships too, it isn't possible without a cost, but if you want it, you really want it, you are prepared to work hard, it's possible and very rewarding at the end.

If none of this sounds like fun, use your salary to run an algo server, run an investment plan, pay off student loans, pay of your mortgage, save top up your pension and retire early at 40-50, live the remainder of your life stress-free.
  • #288
  • Oct 23, 2025 9:01pm Oct 23, 2025 9:01pm
  •  amvt
  • Joined Feb 2025 | Status: Developer by Choice Trader by Heart | 202 Posts
Quoting Noisy
{quote} The idea that market makers destroy trading edges once they are well-known is largely a myth; market makers primarily focus on providing liquidity and balancing their books, not on arbitrarily crushing individual traders' strategies. While market makers do take advantage of irrational trading and "flush out" weak players by moving price to pools of liquidity like stop-loss orders, this is a normal part of the market, and many traders can use limit orders to work alongside them to achieve fair value. Why the myth exists Market makers "hunt"...
In an interview with Computerphile, Jim Simmons said:

Quote
There's a capacity to the major model. It can manage a certain amount of money, which is rather large, but it can't manage enormous amount of money, because you're gonna end up pushing the market around too much.

Why do you think, the best firm in the world cares about other people seeing their trades?

Gregory Zuckerman in a podcast said:

Quote
Rentech has many advantages and their strategies are extremely profitable. But what people don't realize is how they have made models to assess their impact on the market. Huge, complex models. More complex then the strategy itself. Just to hide their trades

For a long time, everybody thought Rentech was a high-frequency firm, due to the nature of their trading. Gregory Zuckerman revealed that it was only a disguise, so banks or brokers won't be able to know their trades.

This is the amount of secrecy we're talking about and what medici has implied. However, this is only half of the equation.

Let me tell you something else that will give you the true picture of the market, especially what you are calling 'Market Makers'

Professor Larry Harris, who served as SEC Chief Economist from 2002-2004, currently serving as lead independent director of Interactive Brokers (IBKR), director of the Selected Funds, and research coordinator of the Q-Group. Received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago, and is a CFA charterholder.

He wrote the most important and honest book on whole ecosystem of trading, from an academic & factual standpoint. It's called "Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners". This has the truest, most realistic description of the market. Not just the description, he explains every part of trading, from how exchanges work to every fine detail of how market makers operate.

I will quote some passages from the book, so you will understand, that you are only aware of what has been popularized:

Quote
Dealers often are known by other names. At futures exchanges, dealers are often called scalpers, day traders, locals, or market makers. At many stock exchanges and options exchanges, they are known as specialists or market makers.
- Section 13-2

Quote
Most exchanges restrict the trades that specialists can do, but some do not. This chapter provides a general discussion of the principal economic and regulatory issues that arise in connection with all designated primary market maker trading systems.
- Section 24-2

Quote
Specialists play three roles in most markets. They are dealers when they trade for their own account. They are brokers when they broker orders and trades for other brokers. Finally, they are exchange officials who are responsible for conducting orderly markets.
- Section 24-3

So, now. Tell me. Do you think a market maker only provides liquidity? What market maker are we even talking about? A specialist? A dealer?

The point of my message is not prove that medici is right and you are wrong. Neither is it to embarrass you for the lack of knowledge. My point is deeper. You have been defending your strategy on every chance you get. Instead of asking questions "I may be wrong", there's a flair of arrogance in the name of experience. On some posts, you also acknowledge that the strategy may not produce the results you desire, but then you see a positive aspect about your strategy that illusions you to stay with it. On one message you are saying "I will backtest this new strategy", on the second, "I see ORB gave good results for GOLD, I will see how it performs".

Sailing on two boats at the same time...is always bad idea. I hope this gives you some chance to reflect.
— Developed by MMQ
  • #289
  • Oct 24, 2025 1:56am Oct 24, 2025 1:56am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} The idea that market makers destroy trading edges
I presume Medici meant buy-side, but rather than play gotcha with AI, learn about alpha decay. AFAIK no one denies its existence except you and the kind of people that'll sell you a hokey ORB strategy online for a round of mojitos.

Listen, FWIW traders advice. Discretionary traders are often free and easy with telling you what they do; it's hard to copy but they're happy to teach. They've no concerns about alpha decay, what they're doing is too slippery to code. The more you veer into quant territory though, the faster the shutters come down. You'll get pointers. Concepts shared if you're lucky. But never, ever, solid robust full working logic and system. That, after all is your actual job.

There's been a lot of generosity in this thread. Focus on that instead.
  • #290
  • Oct 24, 2025 2:12am Oct 24, 2025 2:12am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} The idea that market makers destroy trading edges once they are well-known is largely a myth; market makers primarily focus on providing liquidity and balancing their books, not on arbitrarily crushing individual traders' strategies. While market makers do take advantage of irrational trading and "flush out" weak players by moving price to pools of liquidity like stop-loss orders, this is a normal part of the market, and many traders can use limit orders to work alongside them to achieve fair value. Why the myth exists Market makers "hunt"...
Well this way of thinking already puts you ahead of many people who want to trade for a living. If someone places their stops in an obvious pool of liquidity, that's not a conspiracy; it's just... liquidity. No one is "hunting" them; the market is just absorbing their orders because that's how it works. Additionaly, most of those highly-leveraged CFD orders that retail traders talk about never even make it to the market. They're just synthetic positions on a broker's B-book.

To be candid, I'm not entirely sure I could have made it work just from the retail side. I tried. But I found I just couldn't operate properly without the broader data context. Trying to trade from a spare room, just looking at charts... it always felt like I was guessing, like I was missing the actual conversation. That's why I went to join someone who can give me the needed resources and base knowledge and it worked out great. And I'm not talking about a mentor or personal coach, I'm talking about getting a job in a reputable institution and working your way up to actual portfolio management (which takes years, but you've got a salary during the learning curve). I understand that you're 40 and that you might not want to go this route, I'm just letting you know what worked best for me, and if it helps you in any way I'm glad, if not then just take it as me sharing my personal experience.

Trading is not just about charts, it's more about talking to the right people and seeing what's going on in their head, it helps you understand the psychology of your competition, adversaries or even partners, depending on how you look at others in the market. For me it’s always been about relative value. It's about the stats. And most importantly it's about order flow. You should NEVER fight the flow. You "just" identify where the money is moving and then you move with it.

This brings me to a point you brought up earlier in the threadd which relates to trend following, it is true you don't NEED to follow the trend to be profitable, however it is MUCH easier to do so. Why? It's just the order flow. That's where everyone is. That's where the consensus is, where the big funds are allocating, and where all the stops are clustered. Trying to be the hero who picks the exact top or bottom... well, that's just an expensive way to feed your ego. It's far better to be in the flow than to be run over by it. Additionaly, the trend represents the fundamental situation behind the asset, so in that sense going against the trend is guessing against fundamentals. You should only go against the trend if there has been a "shock" that might change the said trend. And the shock should be concrete economic data.
It's all about finding what's the easiest and most consistent course of action you can do to make a positive return.

This is all very dependant on the type of instrument you trade, if we're talking about Forex, all of the above stands, if we're talking about stocks, you should only ever be on the buy side with trend following, and a contrarian when it comes to a downtrend, but a very conservative and even "scared" contrarian.
Bonds, options, commodities, etc. work a bit differently (trend related) so i'll not get into that.

I'll leave you with a quote:
Ducunt volentem fata, nolentem trahunt -> The fates lead the willing, and drag the unwilling. I think it applies to trading very well, my belief is that it's simply more comfortable and easier to be "led" in the markets.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #291
  • Oct 24, 2025 2:49am Oct 24, 2025 2:49am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} AI disagrees! ;-) {image} {image}
AI doesn't trade!

Unless you sell options, when you trade you HAVE to 100% follow some sort of trend, it is IMPOSSIBLE to make money otherwise

If you buy LONG on a 30 second chart and you make money , you have done so ONLY because the 30 second price trend moved UPWARDS - doesn't matter what the 30 min, 4 hor or daily trend was/is - all that mattered at that time was that the 30 sec trend was UP

Get AI to show us how to make money against the trend then

If ANYONE knows how you place a long trade when price is declining and make money from the declining price let us know because if we can do that, we'd never have a problem of losing - If price is DECLING the TREND no matter how short, is DOWN, you make money by being SHORT in a downtrend

The VERY FACT people MAKE PROFITS, is BECAUSE they HAVE followed a trend - it is physically impossible to make money from the markets without follow a trend

and as I originally pointed out to you, trends are cycles and cycles happen all the way through a market, EVERY market, from TICKS to minutes, to hours, to days, to weeks, to months, years, to decades and to centuries

Stop being reliant on a stupid computer algo to provide answers for you - EVERYTHING you need is right there hidden in plain sight on PRICE CHARTS - its all staring at you and people can't see it

The reason ORB works is because it follows a trend, when it fails, its had a trend, which has reversed and another trend opposite starts

Trading ranges are a series of up and down trends - the overall trend might of gone sideways but the trends within trends or cycles within cycles, have moved up then down then up then down and they are ALL trends of some degree

If the overall trend on a weekly chart was UP for months, the smart thing to do would be to go long when prices bottoms out and resume the overall trend direction and also trade the corrections (down trends) short - BOTH follow the relevant TREND in play at the time

So even if the method isn't called trend following, it HAS to follow a trend of some sort to make money - mean reversion, reverts to the mean, from the extreme to the mean it has followed a trend

I've made £10,000's by being counter trend - but in reality all I was doing was following a trend in the right direction, until it ended and the overall trend direction resumed, which was at that point in time the trend - you only make money in this business by following the correct direction of price for as long as you are in the trade
  • #292
  • Edited 3:11am Oct 24, 2025 2:59am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, I just don't have the money for personal coaching right now. I seriously considered it two years ago when I was still a bit more liquid, but my research and inquiries with several providers in the field didn't give me much hope to find real targeted help of someone actually interested and knowledgeable to show you how to achieve a clear goal in trading. It’s then all about indicators, strategies this and that but in the end you’re pretty much left alone with all the real important aspects putting the puzzle together, like how to create...
Sound and realistic thinking Yes, most coaches/educators are like that. Trying to make easy money from the ignorant. But there are different ones, aimed at the more competent or even professional, but then more pricey.

What could you do? As you are somewhat computer savvy, you could try to develop your own algos instead of buying and playing with mediocre ones. There are very affordable platforms for that, and you could keep at until you make it. There are various websites and communities that share resources and insights, etc, etc. Many of them without cost. And you could look for individual fellow travellers on that journey.
  • #293
  • Oct 24, 2025 3:37am Oct 24, 2025 3:37am
They knew the game 100+ years ago!

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Extract page from WD Gann's Market courses
  • #294
  • Oct 24, 2025 3:38am Oct 24, 2025 3:38am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} The idea that market makers destroy trading edges once they are well-known is largely a myth; market makers primarily focus on providing liquidity and balancing their books, not on arbitrarily crushing individual traders' strategies. While market makers do take advantage of irrational trading and "flush out" weak players by moving price to pools of liquidity like stop-loss orders, this is a normal part of the market, and many traders can use limit orders to work alongside them to achieve fair value. Why the myth exists Market makers "hunt"...
Yes, of course, the retail traders' fear that the broker/dealer//mm/whomever is after them is completely delusional.

And what you are quoting is from online sources that are one step removed from that delusion but still not expressive of how things actually work.

I was speaking from an understanding of the totality of the market as a kind ecosystem, and personal experience of how that operates. What's it like when a dealer at a market making institution plans the day? Who does he talk to? How does he deal with planning for the market open, and the order book of the day? Who are the big players? Who counts? Who gets eaten, and who eats?

Simply put, it's an ecosystem with prey and predators, and as a small trader it's best to be aligned with sharks. Learn how and where they feast on their pray, and be there to pick up some leftovers. Which may be called trend following, mean reversion etc. Just find a niche, and be aware of the changing scenery. But be aware that you're not going to happily sit by yourself forever in the corner where you currently can find food. Which is why my algo trader friend from BNP Paribas didn't want to bet his future on his currently generous sustenance.
  • #295
  • Oct 24, 2025 4:01am Oct 24, 2025 4:01am
Base your strategy on volume, whether it be volume analysis, profile, return to POC or order flow or just a simple confirmation volume delta is increasing. Its biggest tip I can give as a retail trader without CME data feed we don't have much in the way of an advantage, of all the methods I've looked at its break and pullback trading to/away from POC, put in the time, be ready to accept that your psychology might be a problem. Which by way your talking, sounds like you are and with time, patience and hard work in a simulator, you will succeed.

Like this
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  • #296
  • Oct 24, 2025 4:08am Oct 24, 2025 4:08am
Quoting medici
{quote} Very well, but I am not going to engage in that level of discussion. This is the kind of development work you need to be able to handle on your own. Some have evidently been able to do it brilliantly. Do you have what it takes to make it as a trader?
Medici, have you ever watched One flew over the cuckoos nest? You'll end up in a lunatic asylum with noisy if you keep engaging.
  • #297
  • Oct 24, 2025 4:31am Oct 24, 2025 4:31am
Quoting Vorenzd
I understand that you're 40 and that you might not want to go this route, I'm just letting you know what worked best for me, and if it helps you in any way I'm glad, if not then just take it as me sharing my personal experience.
Yes, I also think that such a path could have taught me a lot more quickly and effectively than the knowledge I've gathered from all sorts of books, the internet, etc. However, I fear it's now too late for me to pursue a career as a trader at an institution, not necessarily because of my age, but also because of my overall life circumstances. I already have trouble finding even a decent job that pays halfway decently. The entry requirements for a position as a trader/banker are probably even higher. I probably won't have a chance there anymore. Besides, there are no such opportunities in the area where I live. I'd probably have to move, etc. That's out of the question.

Quote
This brings me to a point you brought up earlier in the threadd which relates to trend following, it is true you don't NEED to follow the trend to be profitable, however it is MUCH easier to do so.

Yes, I didn't mean to deny that it might be easier to follow a trend than to fight it. I just wanted to point out that there's probably not just ONE way to be successful as a trader, and that it would be much more important to find an approach that suits ME personally, one that I can implement as flawlessly as possible, and with which I can potentially achieve my goals. It's just difficult for me when you haven't found a way like that yet and you're constantly bombarded with information from people who all have their own beliefs about what works for them in trading and what doesn't.

Quote
I'll leave you with a quote: Ducunt volentem fata, nolentem trahunt -> The fates lead the willing, and drag the unwilling. I think it applies to trading very well, my belief is that it's simply more comfortable and easier to be "led" in the markets.

Great quote, I like it! Thanks for your great contribution here. Very impressive.
  • #298
  • Oct 24, 2025 5:02am Oct 24, 2025 5:02am
Just to add another perspective to the thread, I've been privately in contact with Noise for several weeks, as I tried to genuinely help him in my free time. At this point I am not sure if it was a good decision, as he didn't make any progress in my opinion. In his defense, I think he is a clever and good person, unfortunately who struggles, and he has many issues with his attitude to the market.

What he wants:
- That someone gives him plug-and-play complete and automated profitable system
- No chart time, no personal development, no research time to create his own ideas/systems
- Treats the market as his personal ATM machine, which will be ready at his preferred time each and every day of the year
- To resolve all his money and time problems with day trading

What is his situation:
- He is in a position of scarcity, both from money and personal perspective
- He had bad experiences in the past, as he based his trading approach on wrong things for many years
- He has a justification for everything and finds a reason why something is too difficult, or doesn't work for him for whatever cause
- He is a married to the fallacy of ORB system, even if it is not profitable when traded purely in mechanical way without any context, and still he insists on it

At this point, best advice is to accept the reality that what is he searching for, he will never achieve it with his current mindset. I understand his struggles, as many other people are in similar situation as him. Since he is already many years in, it is a point that he should either drop the idea of trading completely, or accept the fact that he wasted all these years, and start fresh from the basics, doing the work that is required.

For everyone else that is in beginning of their career, accept the fact that day trading is one the most difficult and competitive jobs you can choose. Yes, it is a full-time job and you absolutely need to treat it that way, it will take many years of intense work and even then, you have absolutely no guarantee that you will succeed.

Before even considering it, you need to resolve all your personal and money issues, or it will put you even in worse place than before. Also, you need capital to trade, otherwise you will play a video game for pennies.
  • #299
  • Oct 24, 2025 5:24am Oct 24, 2025 5:24am
I did not have a great, what I would call natural flair for trading, my psychology profile for trading was terrible and I have had money problems in my past. I have been homeless at one stage but no matter how shittty things get, with work, time and determination, you can get through it.. Psychology is by far the most important factor/obstacle to profitable trading, that 1-2% figure, its not technical reasons, your depth of capital, ability or privilege, its recognising you might be the problem.
  • #300
  • Edited 10:15am Oct 24, 2025 10:02am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting M31
The limiting factors are time and psychology.
Thanks. Yes, that's right. I agree.

Quoting amvt
He wrote the most important and honest book on whole ecosystem of trading, from an academic & factual standpoint. It's called "Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners".
Sounds like a good book, I'll get it. Thank you!

Quoting amvt
On some posts, you also acknowledge that the strategy may not produce the results you desire, but then you see a positive aspect about your strategy that illusions you to stay with it. On one message you are saying "I will backtest this new strategy", on the second, "I see ORB gave good results for GOLD, I will see how it performs". Sailing on two boats at the same time...is always bad idea. I hope this gives you some chance to reflect.
Yes, that might sound contradictory. I've followed the ORB approach for a while and tried it manually in various markets, but without lasting success. The system I purchased is the first one that has led to consistent profitability for at least three months after all these years. My concerns that it's not profitable enough, has too high a risk, or doesn't lead to the goals I need to achieve are still in the back of my mind. Since it's completely automated, it doesn't cost me any time. This way, I don't need to sail with it on multiple boats, and I can and would like to try out other, possibly manual/discretionary approaches. It's not for nothing that I've already started to dabble with Renko charts, etc.

Quoting medici
What could you do? As you are somewhat computer savvy, you could try to develop your own algos instead of buying and playing with mediocre ones.
Yes, that was the idea anyway. I also didn't consider buying a cheap system that would print money and require no additional work. I'm sometimes delusional, but not that naive hehe. I've already looked into some other things related to Renko that I'd like to try out. It just seems a bit more difficult, especially when it comes to backtesting, since without the highest tick resolution, Renko charts seem to be prone to repainting because the historical bricks are redrawn as new data arrives.
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