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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #91,341
  • Oct 17, 2025 3:07am Oct 17, 2025 3:07am
third graph: 2,236 of the reversal of the last upward swing

In summary: 57.7% 50% 150% 223.6%
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  • #91,342
  • Oct 17, 2025 3:13am Oct 17, 2025 3:13am
so as not to forget the big picture on the daily chart
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  • #91,343
  • Edited 3:37am Oct 17, 2025 3:24am | Edited 3:37am
Quoting carbonmimeti
DAILY Each time frame provides different setups for buying or selling... {image}
hence the ( beauty ) of this game

Ps
I trade from the UK and as I Type this its 9:30am and already we are at nearly the Daily Average ?
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  • #91,344
  • Oct 17, 2025 3:45am Oct 17, 2025 3:45am
EXACT reason SP500 conked out of steam - hit the 2.236 ratio of the 2020 HIGH to 2009 LOW RANGE = DIAGONAL of 2 ADJACENT SQUARES AND 2.236 is the Sq root of 5

Funny how all this geometry appears - its as if markets work to it or something
  • #91,345
  • Oct 17, 2025 5:54am Oct 17, 2025 5:54am
Quoting ThaoAnh
{quote} {image} {image}
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  • #91,346
  • Oct 17, 2025 6:04am Oct 17, 2025 6:04am
Quoting ThaoAnh
{image}
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  • #91,347
  • Oct 17, 2025 7:28am Oct 17, 2025 7:28am
So...the last downswing generates the small blue square...this square generates the expansion of the diagonal...I extended the side of square 1 and drew the parallel lines. I duplicated square 1 to obtain the last swings.
This is why I love trading...because it stimulates me to understand!!!

USDJPY 1H
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  • #91,348
  • Oct 17, 2025 8:04am Oct 17, 2025 8:04am
H4 chart.
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  • #91,349
  • Oct 17, 2025 8:09am Oct 17, 2025 8:09am
Quoting sqzr
{quote}Do you think it will bounce off 150 or push through?
My apologies for not answering last night. I made a small profit, and went to bed. Have a good weekend!
Be kind and trade safe Y'all!
  • #91,350
  • Oct 17, 2025 8:10am Oct 17, 2025 8:10am
m15 chart.
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  • #91,351
  • Oct 17, 2025 8:50am Oct 17, 2025 8:50am
5 min...15 min...1H
If the market were random it would not respect geometry...not only that....since the market has a fractal nature, we see the same geometric structure, the same price patterns from the 1 min TF to the monthly..annual TF...what we define NOISE, is our inability to understand the small movements that are at the basis of the big ones!
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  • #91,352
  • Oct 17, 2025 9:33am Oct 17, 2025 9:33am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} hence the ( beauty ) of this game Ps I trade from the UK and as I Type this its 9:30am and already we are at nearly the Daily Average ? {image} {image} {image} {image}
can you share this indicators please?
  • #91,353
  • Oct 17, 2025 9:52am Oct 17, 2025 9:52am
Quoting carbonmimeti
5 min...15 min...1H If the market were random it would not respect geometry...not only that....since the market has a fractal nature, we see the same geometric structure, the same price patterns from the 1 min TF to the monthly..annual TF...what we define NOISE, is our inability to understand the small movements that are at the basis of the big ones! {image}
It’s definitely not random. But in my experience, what’s really driving the market isn’t geometry—it’s supply and demand. That’s the story price action tells, if you know how to read it.

The problem is, most traders haven’t learned how to spot it. So they turn to complex theories, drawing shapes, circles, and arcs, hoping they’ll uncover some hidden order. But the truth is, price doesn’t move because of geometry. It moves because of liquidity. It moves because of institutional orders, stop hunts, retail imbalances, and the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers.

Even market makers—who have far more resources than we do—don’t get it right every time. So the idea that geometry somehow dictates where price must go doesn’t hold up in real-world trading.

Personally, I don’t need to spend hours learning abstract patterns to know where price is likely to turn. I’ve found that a simple, clear understanding of supply and demand zones—confirmed with structure, momentum, and volume—is not only faster, but more reliable.

But hey, if geometry works for you, and you’re consistently profitable with it, more power to you. I just think many traders get misled into thinking they need to make things complicated in order to be successful. They don’t. In fact, it’s usually the opposite.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #91,354
  • Oct 17, 2025 11:00am Oct 17, 2025 11:00am
Quoting Luxyus
who s ready for a nasty fall
Anticipating nastier outcomes




Precise Execution!
  • #91,355
  • Oct 17, 2025 11:22am Oct 17, 2025 11:22am
There are much better traders than me
And perhaps a few a little worse than me
I am happy keeping my head down
doing my own thing
Just a Hobby for me , trying to keep my Brain active
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  • #91,356
  • Edited 1:52pm Oct 17, 2025 1:23pm | Edited 1:52pm
This moves just based on pure market rotation.

After the market closed yesterday the futures continued to sell off and at 2:30 am PST were still down around 300 points.

Algorithms kicked in found the market to be oversold and rotated out of safe haven assets such as the yen back into dow, NASDAQ, and s&p futures.

Yen futures are one of the most used financial instruments when people are seeking a safe haven trade.

So when these traders rotate out the yen futures back into the market it naturally pushes the yen cross pairs higher.

There wasn't a single trader up at 2 am preparing for this move and the majority of the action came in a 2 hour window before the NY session started and it would have been roughly half way through EU session.

If you think experienced traders are going to take a position for a move like this on a Friday let me just reassure you.... You're very wrong.

There weren't any big economic news events or headlines or anything else to really move the market.

China still a problem and sour loans that are showing up in the banking industry is still a problem.

Fundamentals have not changed.... Just algorithms
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #91,357
  • Edited 2:37pm Oct 17, 2025 2:10pm | Edited 2:37pm
It's just a small relief rally.

Probably add to my short position here.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #91,358
  • Oct 17, 2025 3:18pm Oct 17, 2025 3:18pm
Quoting Jgcole83
It's just a small relief rally. Probably add to my short position here. {image}
I’m also of the opinion that price will continue downward. However, I believe we’re currently seeing a liquidity hunt—designed to trigger stops and fill resting orders that were left behind. That’s a common tactic before a larger move plays out.

I wouldn’t be quick to sell here. I’m waiting for the pullback to complete before looking for a short entry.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #91,359
  • Oct 17, 2025 3:21pm Oct 17, 2025 3:21pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I’m also of the opinion that price will continue downward. However, I believe we’re currently seeing a liquidity hunt—designed to trigger stops and fill resting orders that were left behind. That’s a common tactic before a larger move plays out. I wouldn’t be quick to sell here. I’m waiting for the pullback to complete before looking for a short entry.
I'm waiting for confirmation in the futures market.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #91,360
  • Oct 17, 2025 3:27pm Oct 17, 2025 3:27pm
UJ anticipating 152.5 first
Precise Execution!
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