Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

I've written a totally separate script that shows a seasonal price line for the user input lookback period. Unfortunately, due to Pinescript limitations, it's not possible to combine the two indicators.
The original indicator still has the same functionality but no longer has the option to draw a single line.
The new indicator will draw the seasonal price line starting at the open price for the year and increasing/decreasing each month by the seasonal price change.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/G...Seasonal-Line/

https://www.tradingview.com/script/f...0-Seasonality/

Just you and me on here Klausi

Yes its quite in here since parisboy is away. Hope he is ok.. Terry you work ist realy brilliant, very appreciated. I`m using your cma channel for trading position on the daily Bitcoin. Im planning to hold this position till about 2034 so its not that much action. For intraday trading im using actually a different System on the 1 and 2 hour timeframe. That fits better to my shedule but have nothing to do with parisboys teaching (at least not direct). Its funny, the longer the timeframe the shorter the screentime. For m1 f.e. you have to sit straight at least 2 hours glued to the screen.

Chatted with PB, he's out of hsopital and on the mend. Will be back soon.
My Bitcoin analysis

Terry you are doing a great job and I have
always been interested
But
Only Fx holds any interest for me
and my platform being
MT4
just sadly does not work well for me

ps
Glad Alain is on the mend

Thanks Dave. I've gone a bit indicator crazy over the past few weeks and created a really useful suite of indicators that work well for me & my trading style. You're welcome to try any you'd like to if you eventually come over from the dark side.

I did try trading 1m FX charts for a while and other intraday charts, but now I just trade the long term swings. This is where the real money is made, imo, but you need a largish portfolio to start with. Hard to do if your younger.
I still look at my charts at least once a day but only because I love technical analysis. It's like a hobby for me.

ASX looking strong for next year
Not as good for SP500 but still solid

Oil respecting the Gann lines

For those that are interested, I've added a detailed look at the possible monthly moves, based on seasonality.


I've added this panel to the end of the seasonality chart. You select the month you want to look at and within the panel, you'll see the percent chance that a move could occur. Note in the image that there's a 64% chance that the instrument will move down by greater than 1% this month.

Here's the link to the indicator
https://www.tradingview.com/script/f...0-Seasonality/

I've also developed an indicator for longer term investing using Fast Fourier Transform. Unfortunately this won't work in Tradingview, it's a Python script.
Let me know if you'd like any charts posted, but remember it's only for longer term moves.
Looking for a major low in Oil

Thanks for sharing

TP... Tks for all the work...

S.

Would someone share how our dear friend Parisboy is doing?

Alain, je t'adresse mes sincères encouragements à surmonter cette épreuve.
Amicalement.

Keep the thread alive

The HOLY GRAIL in trading and Investing is to FOLLOW the TREND

The TREND is made up of CYCLES, therefore, CYCLES are the KEY

You can follow the trend or cycles in real-time or we can try to predict their next occurrence - I predict

Time Cycle wise we have Oct'25 - it should be a LOW, but as yet not looking like its going to comply, it can still run into Nov/Dec and still be valid - there's another cycle low [static] due Dec'25 so the 2 could be syncing up - find out at some point

The more significant cycles are the ones that make up the 666 (week) BEAST cycle, they are due in Spring 2026 and so far to date they always cause some sort of pause in advancements - this will be some sort of HIGH for the SP500

Then we have this cycle LOW expectation - its a "variable" cycle, but its regular and it is ALWAYS a LOW - so couple the following information with that of the 666 BEAST cycle and we have a pretty compelling high/low scenario possibility for 2026

How much it falls/advances is not known

So the 4 year low to low variable cycle due in 2026:

1. The TEAL coloured cycle line is the "AVERAGE" 4 year cycle - This is only a GUIDE to get a "zone" for the cycle possibility
2. The RED coloured cycle line is THE ACTUAL 4 year cycle to date
3. IGNORE the BLUE cycle line - that is just the "AVERAGE" low to high time from the actual cycle low - it is NOT accurate - I just wanted it on that chart
4. In the DTStoch Indicator window you have DATES and a TIMING BAND - These are inputs from the actual prior cycles in terms of weeks, so we get a timing zone of when the cycle is likely to arrive
5. The Indicator will decline (as it follows price into the low and then tick UP - when it ticks up it's highly likely to coincide with the low or very close to the actual 4 year cycle low (there can be divergence - so you need other factors before trading, depends upon how aggressive you are as a trader)

My preferred outcome is for prices to rally into Spring'26 hit the highs of the expected 666 BEAST cycle and then decline down into the 4 year cycle low expectation between then and Sept/Oct'26

As you can see from the chart - this 4 year cycle is NOT the dominant cycle - its just one of the cycles at play in the SP500 - and I like to get things published before the event to prevent the old "taken after the fact" comments

Time will tell as to how it all pans out

Remember we also have the WAR cycle landing July 2026 - unfortunately this has a huge window either side of the exact date - technically with what the USA military have done in support of Ukraine and Israel and troops on the ground in the USA! we can say this one has worked out - the reason for the USA troops on USA soil is because the war cycle repeating is the exact one that was present at both the USA Civil & Revolutionary wars, fought on USA soil

+1

SP500

Short and sweet - REASONS for topping out

This HAS to be a swing LOW - HAS to be - this chart was published here MONTHS AGO



AND


Zoom in


2.236 is square root 5, square root 5 is the DIAGONAL LENGTH of 2 SQUARES adjacent to each other

2020 HIGH to 2009 LOW = the RANGE

then multiple by 2.236 and you get WITHIN 1 point of perfection as seen above

So what will happen?

Once the market finds its low (be on a retracement level) its off UPWARDS into HIGHS until next SPRING'26, then it will top out - 2026 will see the return of the 4 year LOW cycle, so far it has a 100% hit rate in the USA markets covering 200+ years of price data, it will NOT fail in 2026 - All those "experts" tell you nothing is 100% certain in the markets, well I'm afraid they are wrong and this 4 yr cycle is one of those 100% certainties out there






The ONLY way you work out what is what in this business is by doing your own RESEARCH - then you figure out which industry "experts/numpties" are useless and which are worth listening too - Most haven't got a clue!

TEAL coloured line = IDEAL 4 year cycle time (This is OFTEN NOT hit)
RED coloured line = WHEN the 4 yr cycle ACTUALLY ARRIVES
Ignore the BLUE line - its just the AVERAGE low to high time period
TIMING BANDS in the lower Indicator window = min-max time period for the cycle to hit

Nice DAX Setup on the daily, entered on H4: