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Living in China, trading for a living 18 replies

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  • #201
  • Oct 16, 2025 9:19am Oct 16, 2025 9:19am
Quoting carbonmimeti
{quote} I sincerely hope that those who read your posts realize the true value of what they are reading!!! Ross called this THE LAW OF THE GRAPH
I’m still trying to understand.
  • #202
  • Oct 16, 2025 9:21am Oct 16, 2025 9:21am
Quoting Thtpro
I think you're mentioning my method GBPUSD 30 min
I was referring to Medici's Renko Chart.
  • #203
  • Oct 16, 2025 9:34am Oct 16, 2025 9:34am
Quoting medici
{quote} If you fancy, compare the swing structure on this Renko chart with the one on your 30m chart. {image}
Yeah - Same principle in play, so the swings will match to some degree or the general shape, just using different ways to look at price action

You don't even need price bars on the chart, just the zigzag

and within each 30 min swing of a decent size, there's a 1,2,5 min trend formed, that can be exploited

I can't get Renko on my charting packages, as It's something I've often wanted to analysis with the swings
  • #204
  • Oct 16, 2025 9:37am Oct 16, 2025 9:37am
Quoting carbonmimeti
{quote} I sincerely hope that those who read your posts realize the true value of what they are reading!!! Ross called this THE LAW OF THE GRAPH
Most won't - It's amazing how these methods from 100+ years ago are still ultra valid in todays modern markets

As long as there are price bars generated these methods will always work
  • #205
  • Edited 10:12am Oct 16, 2025 9:45am | Edited 10:12am
This is another trader from the states who like Gann and Livermore, understood the pattern - think this book was published in the 1940's

Same principle as the old zigzag file and yes P&S stand for what you're thinking about

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USDJPY 5 min chart from last couple of days - look familiar?

Same factors drive price

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Knew I had this somewhere - This is from a professional trader back in the late 90's/2000's

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  • #206
  • Oct 16, 2025 10:06am Oct 16, 2025 10:06am
Quoting Thtpro
Same factors drive price {image}
Indeed, here's yen futures with the exact same Renko model as suggested here, but with 4 tick brick size.
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  • #207
  • Oct 16, 2025 10:17am Oct 16, 2025 10:17am
Quoting medici
{quote} Indeed, here's yen futures with the exact same Renko model as suggested here, but with 4 tick brick size. {image}
Yeah it is just sheer amazing what the markets (each of them) are doing from the smallest element upwards
  • #208
  • Oct 16, 2025 10:22am Oct 16, 2025 10:22am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} I can't get Renko on my charting packages, as It's something I've often wanted to analysis with the swings
Can you get range bars? They do a similar job.

Here same yen futures with 6 tick range bars and the model traded back in 2008-11.

I'm pleased to see that there's life to the currencies again
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  • #209
  • Oct 16, 2025 11:06am Oct 16, 2025 11:06am
Quoting medici
First and foremost, you don't have to sit and stare at a 30m chart until candle close, break of line, or whatever. Instead you can, when a setup appears, set a stop entry complete with stop and take profit levels, and let the market take care of things. That's the beauty of this system.
That would definitely be to my liking if I didn't have to actively micro-manage trades but could manage my entries and exits with stop orders and maybe a maximum of a trailing stop or automatic trade management. However, I'm still not sure whether such a strategy could work for me if I only have a certain amount of time available each day or only want to actively trade during that time.

Here's a GBP/USD 30-minute Renko chart (CFD, not futures). I therefore set the brick size to 6 pips (not ticks). It may even be better to set the brick size based on a dynamic ATR calculation rather than using a fixed value so that it adjusts to the last/current volatility of the underlying market and for the time frame used.

Regarding the other indicators mentioned, I have no idea how to implement them. I was only able to add a EMA Close 20 (blue line). MetaTrader (which I've mostly used so far) doesn't have Renko charts at all, and I'm generally neither familiar with nor fond of indicators. This is the web version of cTrader. I can't currently afford a premium membership for TradingView :/

Furthermore I've added two semi-transparent white boxes to highlight my available trading times, allowing me to monitor and trade the price action. Basically, only what's in the boxes.

First white box = First 3 hours of the FX London opening (09:00-12:00 UTC+2)
Second white box = First 3 hours of the FX NY session opening (14:00-17:00 UTC+2)

I don't see a valid setup in those time periods based on what you described as an entry trigger in your previous post. I might be wrong, though, because, as I said, I haven't even fully understood what the entry trigger is supposed to be, other than three consecutive bricks of the same color.

I suspect that if I only have/want to use six hours a day to sit in front of a screen to wait for a valid setup and trade on it (setting my stop orders, etc.), the 30-minute chart with this strategy might be too slow to still find enough valid trades that could lead to the desired minimum return at the end of the month. However, I would like to backtest this; to do so, I first need to understand exactly what my entry and exit points would be and how to correctly implement the other indicators that might be necessary.

PS. I hope I show some willingness to really learn/understand something.
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  • #210
  • Edited 11:55am Oct 16, 2025 11:40am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} That would definitely be to my liking if I didn't have to actively micro-manage trades but could manage my entries and exits with stop orders and maybe a maximum of a trailing stop or automatic trade management. However, I'm still not sure whether such a strategy could work for me if I only have a certain amount of time available each day or only want to actively trade during that time. Here's a GBP/USD 30-minute Renko chart (CFD, not futures). I therefore set the brick size to 6 pips (not ticks). It may even be better to set the brick size...
Good evening You could happily do without the SuperTrend. I added it for visual simplicity....don't know if it helped.

There was an opportunity for a stop entry that you could have entered anytime around 9am.

One way of doing automated entries on Renko is to enter at colour change, i.e. when a red bar changes to a blue or vice versa.

So you could have entered a stop order where the yellow line is in the chart below, in order to enter on the first tick/pip after colour change, and with a stop one tick under the last red brick. so 14 ticks/pips down for a total risk of 15 pips. The order would have been triggered around 9.45 while you were off doing other things.

In this case, given that you are close to the Keltner band, I'd set a target profit of 30 pips and trail the stop in steps 6. Which would, with futures, have paid $187.5 profit per $93.75 risk.

Was that clear?

In the afternoon, no good entries, I agree.

PS. I make my Renko charts using tick charts with 1 tick per candle. That way I am not fooling myself with errors introduced by the double filtering of the price feed.
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  • #211
  • Oct 16, 2025 11:50am Oct 16, 2025 11:50am
Just to illustrate, here's a trade I took today on brick colour change with stop entry at the little yellow line. Unfortunately I exited at the horizontal yellow line....impatient, I know...

Now, this is yen futures, i.e. JPYUSD rather than USDJPY.
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  • #212
  • Oct 16, 2025 11:52am Oct 16, 2025 11:52am
Quoting medici
The markets are slower now
Quote
I'm pleased to see that there's life to the currencies again

Quoting Thtpro
The real trick is knowing when the major bear markets are due and for how long
Quote
Yeah YOU can't dictate to the market, the market moves YOU follow or miss out

Quote
One needs to be able to craft a strategy, including defining setups, entry criteria, and exit criteria. That strategy should have a decent Profit Factor or Revenue to Drawdown ratio, and one needs to thoroughly understand risk management. Finally one needs to be able to follow those rules systematically. That's all.

Interesting quotes to which I would also like to say something:

I understand that markets fluctuate between different conditions, such as trending, non-trending, high volatility, and low volatility, and that the markets don't care how you personally view or trade these things. Therefore, I am very interested in finding a (robust) trading approach that works for me, regardless of the factors mentioned above.

It has been said that, in principle, you only need ONE strategy that is profitable enough to achieve your personal goals. Nevertheless, you can find a thousand different opinions. Others claim you need many more strategies for the reasons mentioned (because markets are constantly changing), yet others say you have to trade multiple markets, strategies stop working so you constantly have to come up with new ones etc etc. How is a "newbie" supposed to understand what to believe in all this?

I think THAT is one of the main reasons why, after all this time, I still haven't been able to find a plan that works for me. You are bombarded with information overload all day long: no facts, just lots of opinions. This is brutal for me because I already have so many thoughts in my head around the clock.

"The average person has about 6,000 to 7,000 thoughts per day" - multiply that by 1000 and you know what goes through my head all day...
  • #213
  • Oct 16, 2025 12:06pm Oct 16, 2025 12:06pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Interesting quotes to which I would also like to say something: I understand that markets fluctuate between different conditions, such as trending, non-trending, high volatility, and low volatility, and that the markets don't care how you personally view or trade these things. Therefore, I am very interested in finding a (robust) trading approach that works for me, regardless of the factors mentioned above. It has been said that, in principle, you only need ONE strategy that is profitable enough to achieve...
I can understand and empathise with that. I have spent the last decade suffering the noise and manipulation of the index futures markets, and I have to say that it is calming and heart warming to come back to FX. I took the time today to check whether my old methods from from more than 15 years ago still work. .They do, because the fx market works exactly the same as it did back then. I am seriously tempted to return now that there is good life in GBPUSD and yen futures.

And that is why I am happy to recommend a simple fx strategy ahead of anything equities related, in particular if you want a stable and safe pay check.
  • #214
  • Oct 16, 2025 12:43pm Oct 16, 2025 12:43pm
I've scanned through this thread, I'm not sure if most of your questions have been answered but I trade full time and have been doing full-time for 3 nearly 4 years now, about 3 years learning too, and last year of that was full time. I'm sure there are others here with more experience but ask anything you want to know.
  • #215
  • Oct 16, 2025 1:29pm Oct 16, 2025 1:29pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Can you get range bars? They do a similar job. Here same yen futures with 6 tick range bars and the model traded back in 2008-11. I'm pleased to see that there's life to the currencies again {image}
No just price bars - I could download MT4 or 5 but i can't be bothered

I'm able to manage with what I've used - just be interested in analyzing it
  • #216
  • Oct 16, 2025 2:20pm Oct 16, 2025 2:20pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Interesting quotes to which I would also like to say something: I understand that markets fluctuate between different conditions, such as trending, non-trending, high volatility, and low volatility, and that the markets don't care how you personally view or trade these things. Therefore, I am very interested in finding a (robust) trading approach that works for me, regardless of the factors mentioned above. It has been said that, in principle, you only need ONE strategy that is profitable enough to achieve...
Yeah there's a ton of info out there - you've got to sift through it all to make sense of what is relevant and what is not

Start with one method, then add to it if you find another that suits - This all boils down to the fact of finding a trade - sometimes one doesn't appear, but another method might show up etc, all depends what you can cope with - another way around this, which is what I've been going on about is price will always provide an opportunity on some time-frame, as we can't demand when a trade shows up, you might have to hunt for it on other time-frames, such as 5 min, 2 min etc- but you have to watch for them, which might not suit your preference to be away from the screens etc

When you work this out for yourself it starts to make sense

TIMING - If you look at my post on page 2 - I make reference to various things, lots of which allude to being able to time the market, and cycles - Its probably a bit too advanced - These markets and especially the SP500 aren't random, it's possible to plot out the rough patches and by doing that allows you to trade/Invest to suit - don't worry about that, you don't need to know stuff like that for the day to day trading

There's only a right way for YOU - what others do might not suit you, you've just got to work it out and find what suits you and the only way you do that is by testing, research and back testing - that then gives you all the numbers you need to work out if its viable or not

Markets ALL work the same - they just move at different speeds and times, but you ALWAYS get the trends, sideways ranges, trends, sideways ranges etc up and down over and over - Its easier to make money on the trends of which you have to come up with rules and conditions to identify to make it as easy as possible for you
  • #217
  • Oct 16, 2025 3:14pm Oct 16, 2025 3:14pm
Quoting medici
Was that clear?
Yes, so the entry would not be after three consecutive bricks of the same color, but after the first brick of a different color.

I assume the moving average serves as an additional filter, so that you only go long after a brick above the moving average and only go short after a brick above it?

I'll backtest it, using a GBP/USD M30 chart for the last three months where I would have placed orders for all valid entries during the trading hours available to me.

Will share my results. If it’s looks promising i’ll backtest it for a statistically more relevant time period. However, I would first have to put this strategy into code as I’m not willing to spend unnecessary more time with scrolling back years of data in a manual fashion.

No „good“ entries in the afternoon - Well, based on the strategy rules discussed so far, it appears to me there were a few more valid entries in the afternoon / NY session. As long as there are valid entries, I would have to execute ALL of them, given the information available to me at this time. Skipping losing examples from a hindsight perspective obviously isn’t possible in trading the future.
  • #218
  • Oct 16, 2025 5:06pm Oct 16, 2025 5:06pm
  •  amvt
  • Joined Feb 2025 | Status: Developer by Choice Trader by Heart | 202 Posts
Quoting medici
{quote} I can understand and empathise with that. I have spent the last decade suffering the noise and manipulation of the index futures markets, and I have to say that it is calming and heart warming to come back to FX. I took the time today to check whether my old methods from from more than 15 years ago still work. .They do, because the fx market works exactly the same as it did back then. I am seriously tempted to return now that there is good life in GBPUSD and yen futures. And that is why I am happy to recommend a simple fx strategy ahead...
Hello medici, I would like to know more about why you think GBPUSD is tradeable now and not previously. Was it the market conditions (high volatility, low liquidity, trending etc) or something related to your specific strategy that needed a special environment? I would love to hear a deeper response
— Developed by MMQ
  • #219
  • Oct 17, 2025 1:28am Oct 17, 2025 1:28am
Quoting Noisy
{quote}Yes, so the entry would not be after three consecutive bricks of the same color, but after the first brick of a different color. I assume the moving average serves as an additional filter, so that you only go long after a brick above the moving average and only go short after a brick above it?
Good questions relating to exact definitions of setups and entry triggers.

I simply shared the output from the AI Assistant after reviewing against my own experience.

Before going live I would twist and turn these things while backtesting until i arrive at something I'm satisfied with.

Quote
No „good“ entries in the afternoon - Well, based on the strategy rules discussed so far, it appears to me there were a few more valid entries in the afternoon / NY session. As long as there are valid entries, I would have to execute ALL of them, given the information available to me at this time. Skipping losing examples from a hindsight perspective obviously isn’t possible in trading the future.

Strategy rules? I don't think we have those yet. As I said in my original post on this, some independent thinking would be needed to turn this into something that works - in particular in relation to exact definitions of setups and entry triggers.
  • #220
  • Edited 8:34am Oct 17, 2025 1:38am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting amvt
{quote} Hello medici, I would like to know more about why you think GBPUSD is tradeable now and not previously. Was it the market conditions (high volatility, low liquidity, trending etc) or something related to your specific strategy that needed a special environment? I would love to hear a deeper response
Around 2012 I got tired of fx. Action was too slow, and I had to spend a lot of time looking for decent setups. Those that I used to trade weren't worth trading anymore. Then I discovered that I could make all the money I needed spending an hour or two a day trading FDAX futures using a single Keltner channel, and a second moving average, on a tick chart. And I've never looked back until now, when my favoured instrument, NQ, is starting starting to demand more than my laziness is comfortable with. So I'm looking at fx again (and also gold), and so is my trading partner.

I don't know if that was 'deep', but that's how it's been.

I saw that you are interested in Markov models, Auction Theory, etc, so on second thought I thought I should add something a bit 'deeper': My whole approach to trading has been shaped by two things: (1) as a student I heard Benoit Mandelbrot lecture on multi-fractal modelling of financial markets, and (2) an article I read in Physica A (a journal that publishes research in statistical mechanics and its applications) by a couple of physicists who had created a trading system using range bars that traded index futures profitably. So, my trading uses concepts from multi-fractal modelling and statistical mechanics, but that's something I won't share the slightest detail about. So I don't know if this was of any help to you at all.
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