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Living in China, trading for a living 18 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

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Trading for a living

  • #161
  • Oct 13, 2025 5:45am Oct 13, 2025 5:45am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Hey buddy. Sorry for the long delay but here is the system with videos and all. It can be used as a primary or supplementary system depending on your trading needs. Templates, Indicators, Rules PDF and more here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...XC?usp=sharing Full 3 Keys System Video Playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL...7X1aq2oQsOUMng Prezi Presentation: https://prezi.com/view/H2a8iqLLJo4YcGL1kjjM/ All of this is free. I...
Thank you so much!!
  • #162
  • Oct 13, 2025 7:03am Oct 13, 2025 7:03am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} My sons 21st birthday weekend, hence delayed reply I'm very visual so charts are perfect for me viewing wise I don't recommend this, but you can buy blindly if you know cycles - but you'd need a buffer zone for price to move, its much better tightening things up by watch and waiting for trend reversal qualifiers - I got in that Fresnillo trade near the £5 mark, once reversal signals appeared You can do the 123 buy on 2, stop at 3 break out method on ANY time-frame, what you do is spend a little time...
You are right,
the break of the high of the upswing is equivalent to the break of Ross's 123... it is equivalent to the so-called "seed of the plant" by MICHAEL JENKINS... it is equivalent to wave 1 in ELLIOT's terminology... but by now the BIGs know it... that's why we tend to anticipate with Ross's TRADER TRICK ENTRY
  • #163
  • Oct 13, 2025 8:14am Oct 13, 2025 8:14am
Now as the market [SP500] did what it did on Friday last week - I will show you exactly why it did it, because it all fits in - this is WHY you are up against it trading and trying to time things using logic - the markets don't use your logic, they use precision logic based on geometry

In a previous post replying to you - I made mention of the planets messing about with us and indirectly the markets - well the planets cause humans to trade to GEOMETRY - this Geometry is both normal and sacred, by sacred I mean the maths within the Pyramids

This is the SP500 Index - PS, you'd not be able to ANY of this without CHARTS, so charts have a massive significance, whether you want to use them or not and I'm not suggesting you employ this analysis, its SHOWING you WHY the standard trader hasn't a chance in the markets, but like me, you can beat the game

The note on the chart explains what I've done - Note the DATE This screenshot was taken - Yellow Box 13th Jan 2023

That is exactly why the high of 2022 happened

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So this chart just brings up to date to last Friday

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This chart is a zoom in - 1 point from perfection

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Now 2.236 is a geometric ratio

2.236 is the LENGTH DIAGONAL of 2 adjacent squares

The calculation was run from the exact HIGH of FEB 2020 down to the exact LOW of 2009

So you can see the games that are being played by factors no trader in the world has the power to outsmart

Align yourself with trends and cycles and you can beat the game, which is why I said that they were the holy grail

Now, we CAN'T see those squares, because as previously stated, the markets are not moving along in 2 dimensions, they are operating at higher dimensions but we are forced to view it all in a lower dimension being 2D - but knowing your ratios, you can sort of keep on top of things

If you take 3 mins to work out the % level the SP500 fell to in March 2009, you will find it was 57.69%

57.7% is a ratio of a cube its also the 30 degree tangent of a circle (Divide 1 by 1.732, 1.732 is the diagonal of a cube and sq root of 3)

The forex markets work off geometry, but its doing something totally different to the SP500 - the SP500 is a slow and steady build

But can you see that trying to create some complicated method to trade, is futile - you just have to follow the trend as simply as possible and if you get risk and trade management nailed down - you'll beat the game at hand
  • #164
  • Oct 13, 2025 10:18am Oct 13, 2025 10:18am
Quoting Thtpro
My sons 21st birthday weekend, hence delayed reply
No problem.

Quote
I'm very visual so charts are perfect for me viewing wise I don't recommend this, but you can buy blindly if you know cycles - but you'd need a buffer zone for price to move, its much better tightening things up by watch and waiting for trend reversal qualifiers

Yes, that makes sense to me. I'm also a visual guy, but I somehow don't like looking at charts anymore. It's always the same thing. Price goes down, price goes up, price goes sideways. Pretty boring when you think about it. Therefore, I'm very interested in finding an approach that requires as little active chart time as possible, or ideally, even allows for completely automated trading.

Quote
back in the 2010's I traded it full-time and made about 25% per week with it - that is 100% per month I know - no leverage either, just risking 1% per trade

So, you were able to make a living from trading? What motivates you to continue trading? Are you already retired?

Quote
This is basically an ORB but you're using a SWING instead of an opening bars range

I don't quite understand. ORB focuses on a time-specific setup that always takes place at the same time, which I like because it gives me a fixed, repeatable starting point every day and I don't have to set alerts with indicators or constantly monitor charts. Currently, I don't even have to look at it (hell yeah), as this is completely automated. Whether it remains profitable and, above all, whether I can achieve my personal return targets under the desired risk within the desired time interval (monthly/quarterly) is another matter.

Trading based on swings/cycles, on the other hand, would mean that my timing wouldn't be fixed, since these can occur at different times on the chart?

  • #165
  • Edited 12:57pm Oct 13, 2025 12:46pm | Edited 12:57pm
this is an ai response to your recent reply, i can see this pattern clearly it is just a reflection of your core beliefs, an offer to help u navigate and overcome was there but i dont have time for it now, once u can truly face yourself u can overcome it and improve, all the best noisy

“I somehow don’t like looking at charts anymore. It’s always the same thing. Price goes down, price goes up, price goes sideways. Pretty boring when you think about it.”
What he’s really saying:
“I’m disillusioned and burnt out because I never developed mastery or control over the charts — so now I’m projecting boredom to cover up frustration and helplessness. I’ve seen a thousand random moves, never understood the structure behind them, so I’ve convinced myself it’s all meaningless.”
Mindset pattern: Avoidance disguised as cynicism. When someone doesn’t understand something deeply, they call it “boring” to protect their ego from feeling inadequate.
“I’m very interested in finding an approach that requires as little active chart time as possible, or ideally, even allows for completely automated trading.”
What he’s really saying:
“I want the results without the responsibility. I don’t want to face the discomfort of making decisions, being wrong, or feeling uncertain — I want to outsource that anxiety to a machine or someone else.”
Mindset pattern: Escapism from accountability. It’s not automation he wants — it’s freedom from failure.
“So, you were able to make a living from trading? What motivates you to continue trading? Are you already retired?”
What he’s really saying:
“I’m trying to rationalize why someone would still be doing this if they already made it. I can’t yet see trading as a craft or art form — only as a means to an end. I’m secretly hoping that once I ‘make it,’ I’ll never have to trade again.”
Mindset pattern: Transactional thinking. Trading is seen as a ticket out of work, not a mastery journey within work.
“Currently, I don’t even have to look at it (hell yeah), as this is completely automated.”
What he’s really saying:
“I’m proud that I don’t have to engage mentally — I’ve equated automation with success. I want to feel smart for avoiding the grind rather than growing through it.”
Mindset pattern: False pride / inverted status — he’s flexing disconnection instead of discipline. He measures progress by how little effort he exerts.
“Whether it remains profitable and, above all, whether I can achieve my personal return targets under the desired risk within the desired time interval (monthly/quarterly) is another matter.”
What he’s really saying:
“I’m aware that it might fail, but I’m already emotionally detached. I’m talking about returns and risk like a spreadsheet, not as a living, breathing system that I engage with.”
Mindset pattern: Defensive detachment — insulating himself from disappointment by talking analytically about something he no longer has faith in.
“Trading based on swings/cycles, on the other hand, would mean that my timing wouldn’t be fixed, since these can occur at different times on the chart?”
What he’s really saying:
“I’m uncomfortable with uncertainty and fluid timing. I want a mechanical system that gives me fixed times so I don’t have to think or feel uncertainty. I’m seeking control through rigid structure.”
Mindset pattern: Desire for certainty > desire for truth. He doesn’t want to read the market’s rhythm — he wants it to act on his schedule.
Summary of his core mindset
Noisy’s words are the polite mask for these deeper beliefs:

  1. “I don’t want to feel uncertainty.”
  2. “If I can automate this, I’ll never have to face losing.”
  3. “Mastery looks too far away, so I’ll chase a shortcut instead.”
  4. “If I can’t control it, I’ll call it boring or meaningless.”
  5. “Success means escaping effort, not becoming excellent.”

  • #166
  • Oct 14, 2025 2:43am Oct 14, 2025 2:43am
Quote
Yes, that makes sense to me. I'm also a visual guy, but I somehow don't like looking at charts anymore. It's always the same thing. Price goes down, price goes up, price goes sideways. Pretty boring when you think about it. Therefore, I'm very interested in finding an approach that requires as little active chart time as possible, or ideally, even allows for completely automated trading.

Price goes up, down and sideways = CYCLES and those cycles are also big, medium and small trends

Trading is like factory work - repetitive and very boring

Trade the monthly/weekly charts for little chart time

I don't automate as I've saved £10,000's over the years by not taking trades that a computer would have taken

Quote
So, you were able to make a living from trading? What motivates you to continue trading? Are you already retired?

Yes in the 2010's - I trade for fun now, I just position trade to show the market I can still beat it and maintain the Investment accounts - I would not advocate this unless you KNOW markets inside out, as ego plays can go very wrong

I am already retired, sort of (I am 50 years old) - I'm a big cycling fan and every May, July, August/Sept I jump in the motorhome and following the 3 big cycling tours around Europe
I trade the Investment accounts to maintain some income coming in etc to keep them at a certain level


Yeah I get the attraction of ORB trading - I'm just showing you the market ain't random - those moves and swings happen because they have to, and anything that happens because it has to like an ORB can be traded and exploited

Yeah YOU can't dictate to the market, the market moves YOU follow or miss out, all these swings, cycles etc happen because it builds things and you get the reversals and turns once certain things are complete (geometry wise) those twists and turns don't happen 9-5, they happen 24 hours and that is why some really great trading opportunities happen at 3am when we are asleep etc

If I were to go to the market today to trade - I would open my charts up and look for and wait for a trading set-up to appear, that might appear straight away, it might appear in 4 hours time, it might not appear today, it might appear at 5.01pm etc - I only traded high probability trades with an 80% chance of winning, I wasn't interested in anything less than 80% and you only work out the 80% by studying CHARTS and I might make 2-5 trades per day - that means there's a lot of the day just sat there waiting - which is most likely why you want to automate

FX-Blitz has got you down to a T in his analysis above
  • #167
  • Oct 14, 2025 2:54am Oct 14, 2025 2:54am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Price goes up, down and sideways = CYCLES and those cycles are also big, medium and small trends Trading is like factory work - repetitive and very boring Trade the monthly/weekly charts for little chart time I don't automate as I've saved £10,000's over the years by not taking trades that a computer would have taken {quote} Yes in the 2010's - I trade for fun now, I just position trade to show the market I can still beat it and maintain the Investment accounts - I would not advocate this unless you KNOW markets inside out, as ego plays...
Some words of wisdom since the last time I've read something with this much interest.
Precise Execution!
  • #168
  • Oct 14, 2025 3:15am Oct 14, 2025 3:15am
Quoting Fx-Blitz
this is an ai response to your recent reply, i can see this pattern clearly it is just a reflection of your core beliefs, an offer to help u navigate and overcome was there but i dont have time for it now, once u can truly face yourself u can overcome it and improve, all the best noisy “I somehow don’t like looking at charts anymore. It’s always the same thing. Price goes down, price goes up, price goes sideways. Pretty boring when you think about it.” What he’s really saying: “I’m disillusioned and burnt out because I never developed...
Spot on and it raises an interesting question: Will the thread starter ever be able to face himself?
  • #169
  • Oct 14, 2025 3:58am Oct 14, 2025 3:58am
Quoting medici
{quote} Spot on and it raises an interesting question: Will the thread starter ever be able to face himself?
not sure, from experience it takes a lot of strength to do so, i did ai interpretation of the importance

Facing yourself is one of the most transformative inner practices — it’s about making the unconscious conscious. The “mirror” refers to the hidden or denied parts of yourself — emotions, impulses, beliefs, and memories you’ve rejected, repressed, or never understood. Doing mirror work means facing and integrating these aspects instead of running from them.
Here’s why it’s important:
1. Self-Integration and Wholeness
When you deny parts of yourself, you become fragmented — living as only a fraction of who you truly are. Mirror work helps you integrate those “dark” or uncomfortable aspects, leading to balance and inner unity.
It’s not about becoming perfect; it’s about becoming whole.
2. Emotional Liberation
Unhealed emotions stay trapped in the body and mind, manifesting as anxiety, anger, guilt, or self-sabotage.
By confronting them consciously, you free that energy. Many find that suppressed emotions like rage, shame, or grief contain immense creative and spiritual power once transformed.
3. Breaking Unconscious Patterns
The shadow drives much of what we do — from relationships to money habits to addictions — without us realizing it. Shadow work exposes the roots of these patterns so you can choose differently instead of being ruled by old wounds or conditioning.
4. True Self-Awareness
You can’t genuinely know yourself while denying half of what you are. Shadow work develops radical self-honesty and insight, which deepens intuition and clarity about your purpose and values.
5. Spiritual Maturity
Many traditions — Jungian psychology, Gnosticism, Hermeticism, and even martial disciplines — teach that enlightenment isn’t about escaping darkness, but transmuting it.
Facing your shadow is the alchemical process of turning lead (unconscious pain) into gold (wisdom and strength).
6. Healthier Relationships
Your shadow projects onto others — what irritates or fascinates you in others often mirrors what’s unacknowledged in yourself.
Shadow work dissolves projections, allowing you to connect with people from authenticity instead of emotional reactivity or idealization.
7. Personal Power
When you stop fearing your own darkness, you reclaim the energy that was spent suppressing it.
That energy becomes confidence, creative force, and presence — the kind of quiet power that comes from self-mastery.
  • #170
  • Oct 14, 2025 4:05am Oct 14, 2025 4:05am
Here you can se a loosing trade with supply and demand + orderblock
the market wanted a different direction the me
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  • #171
  • Oct 14, 2025 6:05am Oct 14, 2025 6:05am
Quoting Thtpro
I wasn't interested in anything less than 80% and you only work out the 80% by studying CHARTS and I might make 2-5 trades per day - that means there's a lot of the day just sat there waiting - which is most likely why you want to automate
Not the only reason. But yes, I like being able to automate things and spend as little time as possible on things that I don't particularly enjoy or am good at. As I said, I've spent YEARS trying to read and act on charts for all sorts of concepts and strategies, and that hasn't gotten me anywhere. I'm 40 now, and I simply don't have the time or interest to spend an indefinite amount of time analyzing and interpreting charts each day. This simply won't work for me, no matter how great and awesome it may be for others.

There's a reason why the thread is titled "Trading for a Living" and not "How do I manage to spend as much time as possible analyzing and manually trading charts?"

I understand everything people are writing here. I'm not stupid, but so far it hasn't brought me any closer to a clear goal that I MUST achieve (i.e., achieving a 5k minimum return per month with something that fits my personal style and available time each day).

I'm NOT in the luxurious position of currently having a sufficiently secure income alongside trading to spend hours a day analyzing and trading charts. I have almost $5,000 in fixed costs every month that MUST be paid. On top of that, I have about $25,000 in debt and a sick father. I haven't been able to take a vacation in 10 years. I'd love to be able to travel around and go on motorcycle tours, but unfortunately, that's not possible.

That's a lot of pressure, so please don't hold it against me if I simply no longer have the strength or energy to deal with a thousand different trading approaches, none of which I can foresee how they will lead me to a clear minimum income from trading.

What I basically need is someone who can show me, while adhering to a precise daily schedule, how to find and enter a maximum of X trades with a maximum of X risk, which can lead to X minimum income at the end of the month (Manual trading). OR yes, an automated approach that achieves this. I don't care if I have an 80% win rate, 99%, or 20%, as long as my risk is kept to X and I achieve X minimum income at the end of the month. If I could achieve that, I might have less pressure and more time to focus on all sorts of other things, like cycles, why the moon is in the 9th house, or what the weather will be like tomorrow.

Trust you understand / Go well.

Roman
  • #172
  • Oct 14, 2025 6:29am Oct 14, 2025 6:29am
Quoting Noisy
I'm NOT in the luxurious position of currently having a sufficiently secure income alongside trading to spend hours a day analyzing and trading charts.

That's a lot of pressure, so please don't hold it against me if I simply no longer have the strength or energy to deal with a thousand different trading approaches, none of which I can foresee how they will lead me to a clear minimum income from trading.

What I basically need is someone who can show me, while adhering to a precise daily schedule, how...
A stunning example of entitlement expectations gone wild.
  • #173
  • Oct 14, 2025 7:04am Oct 14, 2025 7:04am
Quoting Fx-Blitz
{quote} try an experiment, when u look for a trade post it here, name your chart, show us your price action, your thought process leading into it, your thought process when your in it, and your thought process when u exit, the idea of this test will be to analyze how u think, how u analyze your trade and your emotional state during and after be as detailed and honest as possible
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Here is a manual trade I made on Friday evening, in which I did not follow any predefined plan that would have specified my setup, entry, exit, or time.

The reason for the trade was a spontaneous gut feeling decision after I noticed the market had fallen sharply, probably due to Trump's tweets, and I thought, "OK, buy low."

My initial stop loss was also set based on a gut feeling, following the motto "give it some room."

Then I went to bed and thought to myself, "OK, that was stupid, the stop is much too tight". The market will probably open with a gap down on Monday and I get stopped out.

After I got up on Monday and saw that I was surprisingly in profit, I moved my stop up and didn't pursue it further. Shortly after, I was stopped out.

This time it was profitable for me. Thousands of times before, something like this had backfired on me.

Was it luck? = Very likely.
Can it be repeated? Maybe, maybe not.
Can I use this to forge a plan to achieve a consistent minimum income that I need at the end of the month to pay my bills? Probably not.

Now you can ask AI to get an even more accurate picture of my personality. If generative AI is so smart please ask it how to make at least 5k a month trading under less than half the maximum drawdown, how much capital do I need and where do I get it from.
  • #174
  • Oct 14, 2025 7:10am Oct 14, 2025 7:10am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} A stunning example of entitlement expectations gone wild.
And also of something fundamental gone wrong. Trading is difficult but not that difficult. One needs to be able to craft a strategy, including defining setups, entry criteria, and exit criteria. That strategy should have a decent Profit Factor or Revenue to Drawdown ratio, and one needs to thoroughly understand risk management. Finally one needs to be able to follow those rules systematically. That's all.

With all the educational resources available that shouldn't take more than a couple of years to learn, or to discover that one doesn't have what it takes.

But if one has been at it for 10-15 years, and still is persisting while dismissing most if not all helpful suggestions without even taking the time to understand them, then something fundamental is wrong, and FX-Blitz has kindly covered most if not all possible things that can have gone wrong. I hope for his own sake that the thread starter gives them some thought. Nobody can help him if he can't help himself.
  • #175
  • Oct 14, 2025 8:02am Oct 14, 2025 8:02am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Not the only reason. But yes, I like being able to automate things and spend as little time as possible on things that I don't particularly enjoy or am good at. As I said, I've spent YEARS trying to read and act on charts for all sorts of concepts and strategies, and that hasn't gotten me anywhere. I'm 40 now, and I simply don't have the time or interest to spend an indefinite amount of time analyzing and interpreting charts each day. This simply won't work for me, no matter how great and awesome it may be for others. There's a reason why...
Yeah unfortunately the issue and problem here is YOU

The good news is YOU can CHANGE, BUT YOU HAVE to WANT and ENABLE the CHANGE - work out what you've wasted 10-15 years chasing and then focus on how to follow price action

What you've said is like me saying I want to become a professional athlete, I'll turn up to the track, but I don't want to train, put in the effort to work out how to make times over x distance and if someone can do the race for me, then I'll cross the finish line and take the glory! LOL

Come on - This isn't that hard

Back in the 2010's I was exactly where you are now, took me 2 years to figure out most of the crap out there was just that, crap and didn't work, so..... - OK now I've worked out that I have to go in the same direction as price action, how the hell do I do that? So I looked and researched, it turns out you have to go with the TREND - just as I've been saying - so next job was figure out how to that and if I could use anything to give me the edge

Once I figured that out, I simply compounded money whilst drawing an income from it - that meant I had to employ multiple strategies per day - obviously the income was sufficient to fund a families outgoings and any surplus was shoved into tax-efficient Investments for the future - that future is for me now

We're NOT trading randomly - we are simply sat WAITING for our perfect set-up to appear and then pounce - if it doesn't show up, no trade!

On the trade ABOVE that you made -guess what you did? So what if it was by pure luck - you caught the short-term cycle/trend!

To get to your monthly income you need to run the maths - win rate, average win less av. loss, mistakes etc - that gives you the expectancy of the method and then all you do is REPEAT it on another time-frame of market etc
  • #176
  • Oct 14, 2025 9:30am Oct 14, 2025 9:30am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Not the only reason. But yes, I like being able to automate things and spend as little time as possible on things that I don't particularly enjoy or am good at. As I said, I've spent YEARS trying to read and act on charts for all sorts of concepts and strategies, and that hasn't gotten me anywhere. I'm 40 now, and I simply don't have the time or interest to spend an indefinite amount of time analyzing and interpreting charts each day. This simply won't work for me, no matter how great and awesome it may be for others. There's a reason why...
THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I'M WORKING ON RIGHT NOW. I want to be a nomad. I can't carry my screen everywhere I go, but I can carry a device, sure! I'm 28, you have more experience than I in life to decide whether to smoke or work at it. I had to take an MRI test at a point, I'm still recovering from some personal episodes, it's a game but with real money. The questions you wrote towards the end are diamonds to me, adding it to my notes. I figured it back in 2016, but I wasn't able to put it all together up until now.

Basically, I'm still working on the questions you have.

PS : If you can take care of your dad, you can beat me easily
Precise Execution!
  • #177
  • Oct 14, 2025 9:37am Oct 14, 2025 9:37am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Not the only reason. But yes, I like being able to automate things and spend as little time as possible on things that I don't particularly enjoy or am good at. As I said, I've spent YEARS trying to read and act on charts for all sorts of concepts and strategies, and that hasn't gotten me anywhere. I'm 40 now, and I simply don't have the time or interest to spend an indefinite amount of time analyzing and interpreting charts each day. This simply won't work for me, no matter how great and awesome it may be for others. There's a reason why...
Like I've mentioned earlier, trades are fugazi numbers that actually matter.
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Precise Execution!
  • #178
  • Oct 14, 2025 9:44am Oct 14, 2025 9:44am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} A stunning example of entitlement expectations gone wild.
Dude, but honestly, neither do I. I am drained. I started refilling myself with a protein shake yesterday only, I swear.


It makes you crazy if you aren't yet be grateful.
Precise Execution!
  • #179
  • Oct 14, 2025 9:55am Oct 14, 2025 9:55am
I had a humble beginning. Now I'm just helping myself, just in case I'm back again in the next life. I would want things to be easy for myself!

and I'm still laughing at the bankcupcy part
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Precise Execution!
  • #180
  • Oct 14, 2025 3:46pm Oct 14, 2025 3:46pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} The reason for the trade was a spontaneous gut feeling decision after I noticed the market had fallen sharply, probably due to Trump's tweets, and I thought, "OK, buy low." My initial stop loss was also set based on a gut feeling, following the motto "give it some room." Then I went to bed and thought to myself, "OK, that was stupid, the stop is much too tight". The market will probably open with a gap down on Monday and I get stopped out. After I got up on Monday and saw that I was surprisingly in profit
i get those, usually the 1st answer is right, and your initial afterthought was your mind saying your feelings are stupid but surprisingly u were right, your using past pattern recognition believe it or not, that is good you now realize patterns work, but here it looks like u have dismissed your mechanical system and reasoning logic blocking it out which is pure gut feeling so those 2 things there contradict each other, (your mechanical minded but u used a gut feeling) if u get control over that, u can accept feeling while being able to recognize what it is mechanically, leaving stops on hopes, entering on no solid structure, maybe try to add a calculated mechanical setup on top of that feeling, i dont have much information here other then a hope trade so i can only go off that sounds a little made up to me i think there was more there, i really cant see how this is possible to add mechanics to this with such limited chart time and the limited reasoning u have given but there maybe a way

so your basically trading past pattern recognition and acknowledge that they work sometimes and sometimes they dont and acknowledge u use feelings but are mechanically minded going off past posts

zone into some of those questions on why etc your mind will remember these triggers, sometimes writing them down enforces them and builds a bridge between your mind and gut feelings

here is from ai the information u wanted i asked your question, this ai is a bit more mechanical

Quoting Noisy
{quote} If generative AI is so smart please ask it how to make at least 5k a month trading under less than half the maximum drawdown, how much capital do I need and where do I get it from.
psy of the trade

  1. Entry: You caught a vertical capitulation with no confirmation (no break of a prior swing high, no base, late Friday). That’s a falling‑knife fade; edge is tiny and variance huge.

  1. Stop: “Give it room” is not an invalidation. It didn’t reflect volatility (ATR) or structure. Weekend gap risk made it effectively random.

  1. Management: You tightened the stop after waking up and got tagged in intraday noise. No pre‑defined partials/targets → outcome hinged on luck.

  1. Result: Profitable because of a favorable Monday open, not because the process had edge. Not repeatable as a monthly income method.

A repeatable version of this idea (capitulation‑fade)
Use rules; adjust to your instrument, but keep the structure.

  1. Trade filter

  1. Index future/CFD only in liquid hours; avoid holding over weekends.

  1. Look for a down impulse closing beyond 2× 14‑ATR on M30/H1, followed by a pause.

  1. Trigger

  1. First break of a minor swing high on M5–M15, then a shallow pullback that holds above that breakout.

  1. Entry

  1. Buy the pullback to the breakout zone after it holds; avoid market buys into the knife.

  1. Stop

  1. A few ticks below the pullback swing low; size so risk per trade = 0.5–1.0% of equity.

  1. Exits

  1. Take 50% at +1R; trail the rest below successive higher lows or to VWAP/session mid; hard stop to BE only after structure confirms.

  1. No‑go rules

  1. No trades within last hour Friday. No widening stops. No overnight holds unless via options (defined risk).

Capital math for a $5k/month target
Let CC=capital, ff=risk per trade, RmRm=net R per month (sum of R across all trades). Monthly profit ≈ C×f×RmC×f×Rm. So:

  1. Capital needed: C=5000/(f×Rm)C=5000/(f×Rm)

Examples:

  1. f=1%, R_m=3R → C ≈ $166,667

  1. f=1%, R_m=4R → C ≈ $125,000

  1. f=0.5%, R_m=4R → C ≈ $250,000

  1. f=0.5%, R_m=6R → C ≈ $166,667

With 0.5–1% risk and a decent strategy (3–5R/month), the typical worst drawdown you’ll see over a year is roughly 8–15% if you follow rules and avoid weekend gaps. Chasing >5k/month on much less capital usually forces either higher risk/trade frequency or rule‑breaking, which inflates drawdown.
Where to get capital

  1. Self‑fund, scale with micro contracts (e.g., MNQ) until you have 6–12 months of verified stats.

  1. Prop evaluations (Topstep, FTMO, etc.): good for access but mind the rules (daily loss limits, news holds, max position time). Treat as capital access with constraints, not free money.

  1. External capital after a track record: PAMM/MAM, Darwinex, friends/family—only once you have audited results with clear risk limits and written rules.

Concrete next steps to make this real

  1. Define the checklist (one page): market filter, trigger, entry, stop, exits, no‑go.

  1. Collect 30–50 sample trades of this exact setup on replay or small size; compute win rate, avg win/avg loss, R_m, max losing streak.

  1. Lock risk at 0.5–1% and stop holding over weekends; if you must hold, use options for defined risk.

  1. Journal and review weekly; change one thing at a time.

What moves NDX (Nasdaq‑100)

  1. Interest rates/real yields

  1. NDX is “long‑duration” equity. Rising 10y real yields or a more hawkish Fed compresses P/E → NDX down; falling real yields/looser financial conditions → multiples expand → NDX up.

  1. Earnings and guidance (concentration risk)

  1. A handful of megacaps dominate index weight (top 7–10 ≈ 55–65%). Beats/misses or outlook changes at AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA can move the whole index.

  1. Theme shocks: AI capex cycle, chip demand, cloud spend, online ads, consumer electronics.

  1. Liquidity and flows

  1. Corporate buybacks (and blackout windows), ETF/futures flows, dealer gamma/0DTE options positioning (pinning vs amplifying moves), CTAs/vol‑control re‑leveraging or de‑risking.

  1. Macro data and the Fed

  1. CPI/PCE, jobs (NFP/claims), ISM/PMIs, retail sales. Anything that shifts the Fed path (dots/speeches, QT/QE signals) reprices rates → reprices NDX.

  1. Dollar and credit

  1. Strong USD can pressure multinationals’ revenues; widening credit spreads (HY/IG) signal tighter conditions and risk‑off, weighing on NDX.

  1. Sector/industry specifics

  1. Semis (SOX, export controls, CHIPS/China policy), software (SaaS margins vs rates), ads (ad‑spend cycles), EVs and consumer demand.

  1. Policy/geopolitics

  1. Antitrust, privacy, AI regulation, export controls/tariffs (especially US‑China), tax changes, large Treasury supply/term premium shifts, and major geopolitical shocks.

  1. Positioning/technicals

  1. Breadth (equal‑weight vs cap‑weight), momentum/trend signals, hedging demand (VIX/VVIX), quarterly OPEX and index rebalances.

Quick watchlist (practical)

  1. Rates: 10y nominal/TIPS real, 2s10s, Fed pricing.

  1. Macro: CPI/PCE, NFP/claims, ISM/PMIs, retail sales.

  1. Earnings: the top 7 names; NVDA/semis as bellwether.

  1. Flows: buyback window status, dealer gamma/large strikes, OPEX.

  1. Risk gauges: DXY, HY spreads (HYG/LQD), VIX/VVIX, breadth (QQQE vs QQQ).

Rule‑of‑thumb: falling real yields + strong breadth + buybacks on → buy‑the‑dip regime; rising real yields + widening credit + negative gamma → sell‑the‑rip/volatile regime.

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