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Living in China, trading for a living 18 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

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Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

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Trading for a living

  • #121
  • Oct 4, 2025 12:27pm Oct 4, 2025 12:27pm
Here is my experience, after many years loss on trading, I have profit every month
Phase 1, invest 90% money on stocks basket, (Buffett use basket too), like 20 stocks, always make profit from one of them. Currently, I only buy index ETF, so choose about 5 ETF.
Phase 2, after make profit on one, invest 90% on ETF & futures (1:10 leverage), use strategy and experience from phase one, increase profit.
On phase one & two, trade forex (1:100 or more) with 1% money.
This is how to trading for a living, my personal experience.

Also, I like to ask help, I am looking for a post, it's a ea/strategy, it use a same ea run on four or five chart, each start at different time/session every day, after each early achieved the profit goal, it stopped. Next day run again. Why I can't find it, is it in recycle sub forum?
  • #122
  • Oct 4, 2025 2:26pm Oct 4, 2025 2:26pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Sorry to hear about your challenges. I've certainly had, and have, mine. While it can be hard, I try to see them as opportunities for growth, and I remind myself that a life of complacency and free of problems can be very meaningless. {quote} The situation for many of us. But you seem to have found the prop firm option, which can be a good way to reduce personal financial exposure, and to increase levergage. {quote} How are you going to find out whether you will be able to achieve your goals without wasting too much time? Difficult question...
Thank you for your great answers.

Structured – by that I mean that certain routines suit me. I am aware that there is a lot of noise in the markets, so my philosophy is not to try to make predictions, but rather to pursue a statistical approach where I can more or less always do the same thing and still achieve my overall goals.

Focus on market openings – Exactly, I try to do that too, but with limited success so far. I started with Forex and the London Breakout Strategy, then switched to stock indices after a few recommendations, and am currently focusing on that. The DAX seems to be very volatile. Some people have therefore advised me to switch to the S&P 500 and also to futures instead of CFDs. Currently, however, my system trades CFDs on a handful of indices instead of just one.

Filters – I have already tried a few things here, but so far I have only found that no matter which filter I tried, they either hurt my profitability or did not improve it significantly. Some tell me that context/filters are needed and swear by accuracy, while others tell me that's all nonsense and that what is needed is positive risk:reward and long-term positive expectations. That doesn't exactly lead to more clarity and confidence for me.

Prop firms – Yes, this seems to be a way to get more capital, but at the moment it would probably be more important to finally find a plan that can realistically lead to profitability in the time frame I have in mind (since all my expenses are monthly, my naive goal is to make 2-3% a month under reasonable drawdown)

Wish a nice weekend to everyone!
  • #123
  • Oct 5, 2025 11:11am Oct 5, 2025 11:11am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Thank you for your great answers.
You're welcome. As I said, hope it helps in some way.

If you are trading ORB, I wouldn't think that trading a portfolio of indices is the best way. I'm convinced that optimisation for a single index would be the best way. This example seems to verify that: https://www.tradingview.com/script/u...-vv4-06-30-25/

And if you have access to some funds, which your 2-3% monthly target suggests, then trading ORB for individual equities might be a better option than indices, See for example https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=4729284

What you didn't respond to was my question "How are you going to find out whether you will be able to achieve your goals without wasting too much time?" I know people who have spent unnecessarily large amounts of time and money before they had to conclude that their hopes for trading success would never be fulfilled. That's why I asked.
  • #124
  • Oct 5, 2025 12:26pm Oct 5, 2025 12:26pm
Quoting medici
You're welcome. As I said, hope it helps in some way.


Quote
If you are trading ORB, I wouldn't think that trading a portfolio of indices is the best way. I'm convinced that optimisation for a single index would be the best way. This example seems to verify that

Thanks for the link. That looks interesting and similar to the ORB approach I'm currently pursuing, but without directional bias. I'll take a closer look at it in the next few days.

Quote
And if you have access to some funds, which your 2-3% monthly target suggests, then trading ORB for individual equities might be a better option than indices, See for example

I think I stumbled across this study before. I'll take a closer look at it. I have no previous experience with stock trading. Thanks for that, too.

Quote
What you didn't respond to was my question "How are you going to find out whether you will be able to achieve your goals without wasting too much time?" I know people who have spent unnecessarily large amounts of time and money before they had to conclude that their hopes for trading success would never be fulfilled. That's why I asked.

Yes, that's a really good question. I'm also afraid of having to continue to dedicate so much time without making real progress towards my goals, getting older, and not having achieved anything in the end. I'm sure I'm not alone in this. I'm not the type to give up easily. I know the only guarantee you get from quitting, is that it will never happen, no way under the sun.

On the other hand, the constant pressure to earn at least enough money to survive is a burden, but I don’t want to complain. I know many people feel this way, and many are probably far worse off. Personally, this humility doesn't help me achieve my goals in time. Sure, I could set a time limit for how long I would keep trying, but what would happen then? Finding a well-paying job also seems pretty hopeless to me at the moment. I wouldn't even know exactly which field would be suitable for me anymore and I actually don’t want to be an employee even while this might be the less risky and time intensive solution to earn a living. Hm, yeah..
  • #125
  • Edited Oct 6, 2025 9:43pm Oct 5, 2025 9:55pm | Edited Oct 6, 2025 9:43pm
Quoting Noisy
On the other hand, the constant pressure to earn at least enough money to survive is a burden
Earning money is a process of converting what you know or know how to do into something of value. It should be clear how that process works in a job where you work for someone. In financial assets, if you know a little about something you can invest in it and use longer time frames to help secure a return. To trade something, however, you must know significantly more about an asset or asset class, in part because you cant rely on time to level out your misjudgements. I understand real estate enough to invest in it, and the same can be said about investing in certain equity sectors. I understand changing currency valuation pretty well, enough to trade short term market moves. Currency values are determined by fundamentals, and changes in currencies are driven by bankers. Currency pairs are traded by banker with intention, from target to target, within the market structure. Everyday. If you are going to trade currencies, you must understand that statement, and everything that makes up that statement. If you understand that statement, you'll know how to analyze the market right now, and know if you should be trading, and when you should trade.

If you dont know enough to invest in something, you sure as hell dont know enough to trade it. If you don't have enough money to live on the returns on an investment in something, you sure as hell don't have enough money to make a living trading it.
  • #126
  • Oct 6, 2025 7:46am Oct 6, 2025 7:46am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, that's a really good question. I'm also afraid of having to continue to dedicate so much time without making real progress towards my goals, getting older, and not having achieved anything in the end. I'm sure I'm not alone in this. I'm not the type to give up easily. I know the only guarantee you get from quitting, is that it will never happen, no way under the sun. On the other hand, the constant pressure to earn at least enough money to survive is a burden, but I don’t want to complain. I know many people feel this way, and many...
Actually, I didn't mean to suggest an arbitrary time limit. Quite the contrary, I meant the question literally - how long do you think it'll take until you make it?

And to me the only way of answering such a question would be to make a plan with milestones, check points, etc. An essential milestone could be "strategy developed that provides acceptable equity curve volatility over available data, verified through both back testing and forward testing." Then there would be milestones before and after that.

Contrast that with somebody I know, who spent many years and many tens of thousands of Euros on paying programmers to implement his ideas in automated trading algorithms. Without a plan, without a defined methodology, just stretching his imagination and applying what he had just learned to see if that would work.

Years later he had to give up. I pointed out that some strategies that we had discussed would work very well for manual trading for an hour or two per day. Not acceptable. He'd rather give up.

So, (1) there was no plan with deadlines and milestones, and (2) there were presuppositions which apparently couldn't be given up for reasons of sense of identity and self-esteem.

What's it going to be for you?
  • #127
  • Oct 7, 2025 1:22pm Oct 7, 2025 1:22pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Earning money is a process of converting what you know or know how to do into something of value. It should be clear how that process works in a job where you work for someone. In financial assets, if you know a little about something you can invest in it and use longer time frames to help secure a return. To trade something, however, you must know significantly more about an asset or asset class, in part because you cant rely on time to level out your misjudgements. I understand real estate enough to invest in it, and the same can be said...
Thanks, good post. I would argue that our behavior is far more important than knowledge and intelligence in financial success. I know people who are completely stupid and have no in-depth knowledge of most of the things they do, and yet they earn a lot of money with what they do. After so many years of trading, I certainly don't have the feeling that I don't know enough, quite the opposite, I feel like I know far too much and that this actually hinders me rather than helps me achieve my goals. I'm disciplined too. I'd say that's not the problem. I think my problem is more that I haven't been able to find a real strategy/plan that simply works to achieve what I'm looking for. Not having enough capital to actually finance a life with a plan like that is, of course, a huge additional problem.
  • #128
  • Oct 7, 2025 4:39pm Oct 7, 2025 4:39pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I would argue that our behavior is far more important than knowledge and intelligence in financial success.

I think my problem is more that I haven't been able to find a real strategy/plan that simply works to achieve what I'm looking for.
In my mind, these two sentences are contradictory. Fyi, control of behavior, or discipline, or emotions, etc. is assumed to be a base attribute of a trader. Confidence in trading comes from the mind, not the heart. Good luck on your journey.
  • #129
  • Oct 8, 2025 8:45am Oct 8, 2025 8:45am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} In my mind, these two sentences are contradictory. Fyi, control of behavior, or discipline, or emotions, etc. is assumed to be a base attribute of a trader. Confidence in trading comes from the mind, not the heart. Good luck on your journey.
Yes, that seems contradictory to me, too. So I don't know what the problem is. All the best to you too!
  • #130
  • Oct 8, 2025 9:36am Oct 8, 2025 9:36am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} In my mind, these two sentences are contradictory.
I see another contradiction:

"...I feel like I know far too much..." and "I think my problem is more that I haven't been able to find a real strategy/plan that simply works to achieve what I'm looking for."

Which has been apparent from the beginning, and which is why I have rudely been harping on with versions of the question: If you haven't got there by now, what makes you think you ever will?
  • #131
  • Oct 8, 2025 9:54am Oct 8, 2025 9:54am
Quoting medici
{quote} I see another contradiction: "...I feel like I know far too much..." and "I think my problem is more that I haven't been able to find a real strategy/plan that simply works to achieve what I'm looking for." Which has been apparent from the beginning, and which is why I have rudely been harping on with versions of the question: If you haven't got there by now, what makes you think you ever will?
Including that example in my post would be piling on. In the final analysis, we have failed.
  • #132
  • Oct 8, 2025 11:25am Oct 8, 2025 11:25am
Quoting medici
{quote} Actually, I didn't mean to suggest an arbitrary time limit. Quite the contrary, I meant the question literally - how long do you think it'll take until you make it? And to me the only way of answering such a question would be to make a plan with milestones, check points, etc. An essential milestone could be "strategy developed that provides acceptable equity curve volatility over available data, verified through both back testing and forward testing." Then there would be milestones before and after that. Contrast that with somebody I know,...
Hello medici,

I see. I had already anticipated that it could take several years and had set milestones. So, yes. Every now and then, I felt like I was making progress, but then I was disappointed again. I took a few breaks, then tried new things again. I'm in a constant "Try-and-Fail"-Loop for 10-15 years.

Manual trading would also be an option, and I have already tried a few plans here, but they didn't get me anywhere either. Before the ORB approach, I mainly tried trend-following strategies, mostly using indicators, etc., to find setups/entries, but I had considerable difficulties with this because all these strategies were very vaguely defined in my opinion and many important aspects were completely neglected or not explained at all.

The ORB system, which I have been trying out since the beginning of August, is at least the first one that has led to no total loss and even slight profitability for more than 60 days. Admittedly, in the form and way I'm doing it so far, it's possible to achieve a reasonably constant minimum return, especially over the time frame I'm hoping/looking for (monthly or at least quarterly). I had optimized it so far by trading only 3 markets instead of the initially 5 very strongly positively correlated markets (DAX, NAS, Gold). As far as I can see, this has significantly reduced the drawdown, fewer trades are being executed and not all trades are predominantly in the same direction. However, it has not increased profitability that much so far.
  • #133
  • Edited 4:25am Oct 9, 2025 3:03am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Hello medici, I see. I had already anticipated that it could take several years and had set milestones. So, yes. Every now and then, I felt like I was making progress, but then I was disappointed again. I took a few breaks, then tried new things again. I'm in a constant "Try-and-Fail"-Loop for 10-15 years. Manual trading would also be an option, and I have already tried a few plans here, but they didn't get me anywhere either. Before the ORB approach, I mainly tried trend-following strategies, mostly using indicators, etc., to find setups/entries,...
Hello, and thank you for your reply. Several years? That's like doing a Ph.D.! If you are familiar with the basics, 6-18 months would be more reasonable. Like a Masters degree, of which I've had the mixed blessing of supervising quite a few. And students often do produce results relevant for trading in the stated time period, which they then use to build their careers. So what you are describing, 10-15 years of unsuccessful trial and error, doesn't sound promising. You should have Ph.D. level skills by now, but you're still a relatively ignorant amateur frequenting online contexts populated mostly by losers.

And you advertise for the few winners to come forward and support you, but you respond quite arrogantly to most who do. When you should be identifying and seeking out the few winners you can find, and approach them with a polite and humble offer for their helpful collaboration and support. Not pretty.

On a different note, I recall a conversation on the London Underground late one evening with a former colleague (and former head of algo trading at BNP Paribas in London) as we made our way home towards West London. I floated the idea of trading one's own account instead of working these late evenings, to which my friend replied that he would never risk his livelihood on trading his own account. Why? He gave along and detailed answer that I'll summarise by saying that he didn't feel confident that a longer term opportunity was there without institutional resources.

That was a professional speaking. Of course, like many people on FF and other online contexts he would easily be able to make a decent profit in the short term, but he wouldn't bet his long term future on it. Instead he retrained to take up a helping profession.

Could it be the case that not only is your track record less impressive, but that your expectations are off the mark too?

Speaking for myself, I'd say that I'd happily do something else rather than trading, but that I ended up with this for reasons of past circumstances.

Maybe you should try to find something better to do while you still can?

And as to expectations I come to think of the famous words "blessed are the poor in spirit." What does that mean? What is a poor man?

According to the following text, a poor man is somebody who wants nothing, i.e. somebody who is humble to the utmost.

Can you choose to be humble, or do you need to be humbled?

https://thedawnwithin.com/the-poor-man/
  • #134
  • Oct 9, 2025 3:26am Oct 9, 2025 3:26am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Even if we were to give you these proof of income and statements, couldnt you just say they were fake or doctored? What with AI and all. The only way to truly see if someone trades for a living is to watch them log into their bank account and trading account and show you everything in person and noone is going to do that here. You can verify if they can trade efficiently by trying their strategy though. Wish you green pips.
I understand but I was not requesting whole the data, as you said, it could be faked.
Just more some kind order of magnitude of perf, something like 5%/year, 30%/year, 50%/year and the track record length.
It's easier to have an idea of what we are talking about with this kind of info.
  • #135
  • Oct 9, 2025 7:39am Oct 9, 2025 7:39am
Quoting medici
Several years? That's like doing a Ph.D.! If you are familiar with the basics, 6-18 months would be more reasonable.
I don't know if you can say that in general, because we are not all equally intelligent, have the same experiences and challenges in life. Speaking for myself, I can only say that it seems a long time to me. But I also have to say that I wasn't able to devote myself exclusively to trading during all this time. I started trading for the first time when I was around 20, then, like many people, I lost a few accounts and kept trying and improving. That's about 2 years until I had enough of these failures. Then until my mid-30s I didn't engage in trading at all, or only very superficially when time allowed. Since then, I have had a relatively successful self-employment as a web developer. In addition, when I was in my early 30s, my father had a serious stroke and has not been able to move properly since then, and that still costs me a lot of time and energy. In the last 5 years I have become more serious about trading again and have been trying to find a way to achieve my goals ever since. During that time there were also a few interruptions where I got fed up and took a break. All in all, yes it seems like a long time already.

Quote
but you're still a relatively ignorant amateur frequenting online contexts populated mostly by losers. And you advertise for the few winners to come forward and support you, but you respond quite arrogantly to most who do. When you should be identifying and seeking out the few winners you can find, and approach them with a polite and humble offer for their helpful collaboration and support. Not pretty.

I don't know exactly where I gave the impression of ignorance/arrogance, but that certainly wasn't my intention. The fact that you mostly only find people who don't really understand anything about trading, especially how to achieve a clear goal, is obvious and also my experience. How to recognize the winners of the losers is difficult because you can hardly find transparent track records of traders who then are also willing to help.

Quote
On a different note, I recall a conversation on the London Underground late one evening with a former colleague (and former head of algo trading at BNP Paribas in London) as we made our way home towards West London. I floated the idea of trading one's own account instead of working these late evenings, to which my friend replied that he would never risk his livelihood on trading his own account. Why? He gave along and detailed answer that I'll summarise by saying that he didn't feel confident that a longer term opportunity was there without institutional resources. That was a professional speaking. Of course, like many people on FF and other online contexts he would easily be able to make a decent profit in the short term, but he wouldn't bet his long term future on it. Instead he retrained to take up a helping profession.

Great story and I agree.

Quote
Could it be the case that not only is your track record less impressive, but that your expectations are off the mark too?

That may be absolutely true. I haven't been able to build a long-term profitable track record yet and I'm not ashamed to admit it. Especially not one from which I could achieve my goal. Are my expectations too high? Good question. I see that my friends and acquaintances who have nothing to do with trading can at least make a good living from what they do and spend far less time than I do. I don't know if the goal is too high to at least achieve the same thing from trading. I don't need/want to become a billionaire or get into the next Market Wizard book. But yes, at least you should be able to make a living from it at some point?

Quote
Maybe you should try to find something better to do while you still can?

Yes. I am now 40 and have not been employed for the last 15 years. It's not that easy to find a job that pays well. There are also health and family problems that make this difficult. Furthermore, is there a guarantee that other areas will not continue to fail for me?

Quote
And as to expectations I come to think of the famous words "blessed are the poor in spirit." What does that mean? What is a poor man? According to the following text, a poor man is somebody who wants nothing, i.e. somebody who is humble to the utmost. Can you choose to be humble, or do you need to be humbled?

Really nice quote. I'm not particularly religious or spiritually inclined, but you can only agree with that!

I've attached the ORB system as a TE to this topic in case someone would like to get an impression and have a few concrete tips on how I could improve it if necessary to maybe achieve the 2-3% target return per month. Less than 10% drawdown. Then I might try again with a prop trading company. I'm also open to everything else but it should somehow lead to a clear goal that I have. As I said, manual trading would also be feasible for me, but I can't and don't want to have to sit in front of a screen for 8-10 hours a day.
  • #136
  • Oct 9, 2025 8:40am Oct 9, 2025 8:40am
FFS this imbecile has posted in different guises for 20 years. Back to waste peoples time. A narcissist in the first order. Medici, you got sucked in by this nutcase?
  • #137
  • Edited 11:08am Oct 9, 2025 9:13am | Edited 11:08am
Quoting mallee
FFS this imbecile has posted in different guises for 20 years. Back to waste peoples time. A narcissist in the first order. Medici, you got sucked in by this nutcase?
Oh, you know him? Ahead of my last post I had given up, and the image of a rather unpleasant character was emerging. Can't help and don't want to help. But I thought I should say something, and other readers may benefit too....or not.
  • #138
  • Oct 9, 2025 10:06am Oct 9, 2025 10:06am
Quoting mallee
FFS this imbecile has posted in different guises for 20 years. Back to waste peoples time. A narcissist in the first order. Medici, you got sucked in by this nutcase?
I don't know you and I haven’t been here for 20 years but your gutter language isn’t needed here.
  • #139
  • Oct 9, 2025 5:02pm Oct 9, 2025 5:02pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I don't know if you can say that in general, because we are not all equally intelligent, have the same experiences and challenges in life. Speaking for myself, I can only say that it seems a long time to me. But I also have to say that I wasn't able to devote myself exclusively to trading during all this time. I started trading for the first time when I was around 20, then, like many people, I lost a few accounts and kept trying and improving. That's about 2 years until I had enough of these failures. Then until my mid-30s I didn't engage...
It's not that I think you should quit, or that you've been trying too long. I think you should never fund a trading account until you can prove that you know what you are trading, how that market works, and what is required to be successful. You should not be thinking about money until you can consistently achieve net positive pips every week for at least 6 months. You're talking about funding your life before you can reliably fund your lunch tomorrow.

The yen moved over 500 pips this week. I've gotten over 600 pips trading it. If you didn't get 5 pips on a slam-dunk set up like that, you should probably step aside and work harder on understanding currency valuations before wondering if you can make money trading currencies. Just my 2 cents.
  • #140
  • Oct 10, 2025 3:00am Oct 10, 2025 3:00am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} It's not that I think you should quit, or that you've been trying too long. I think you should never fund a trading account until you can prove that you know what you are trading, how that market works, and what is required to be successful. You should not be thinking about money until you can consistently achieve net positive pips every week for at least 6 months. You're talking about funding your life before you can reliably fund your lunch tomorrow. The yen moved over 500 pips this week. I've gotten over 600 pips trading it. If you didn't...
I'd agree with that, but what I see here, 10-15 years of unsuccessful trial-and-error, I've seen before. And it typically ends in one of two ways:

(1) The aspirant is forced by circumstances to give up without ever finding success, or

(2) The aspirant "wakes up" and realises that he is completely lost. Only then does the mind open up to receiving a possible way forward.

Alternative (2) usually happens in one of two ways:

(i) Seemingly by coincidence the aspirant, finally with mind open, stumbles upon something that that offers a way forward, or

(ii) Seemingly coincidentally the aspirant comes in contact with someone who offers a way forward.

Case (i) I've seen a few examples of. One that comes to mind is someone who said that ICT saved him. Then, upon further inquiry it turned out that they had heard of, reasonably understood. and dismissed ICT already. But what had happened was that they had finally really really really understood 'Fair Value Gap' and 'Power of 3' (or Spring and Upthrust as it used to be called). They realised how stupid they had been, and what kind of work was actually needed to succeed, Etc, etc, and stunning success happened.

But what we're seeing here, with the thread starter, is somebody who is rather stubbornly and self-indulgently stuck in their illusion. What can you do about that?
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