EURUSD & GOLD

gold this week with sma 100 & 200

Eurusd: resistance and support.
SMA 20/50/100

sma 100 & 200 with MTF sma 100

so from week open

The dollar, the “least ugly” major currency.

Dollar thrives on relative stability while gold thrives on eroding trust, each rising for opposite but reinforcing reasons.

As of October 9, 2025, Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza, which began in 2023.
The Gaza ceasefire agreement
Announcement: The agreement was reached in Egypt after several days of intense negotiations. The deal is pending approval from Israel's cabinet before taking effect.
Key provisions (Phase 1):
Hostage and prisoner exchange: Hamas will release all hostages, and Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. This follows a previous, shorter ceasefire in early 2025 that included multiple rounds of exchanges.
Humanitarian aid: Hundreds of trucks with aid, including fuel and medical supplies, will enter Gaza daily. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) has said it has enough stock to feed the entire population of Gaza for three months.
Israeli withdrawal: Israel will begin withdrawing its forces from parts of Gaza.
Negotiations: U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration reportedly played a key role in mediating the deal, with former President Joe Biden's team also contributing during the transition period. The agreement is intended as a first step toward a more comprehensive resolution.
Global response: World leaders have largely welcomed the news, acknowledging it as a crucial step towards de-escalation. However, some note that a permanent peace deal has yet to be reached, and difficult issues remain.

USA

What the colors show:

• Blue bars – “Payroll gains”: how many new jobs were created monthly in the economy.
• Red line – the smoothed estimate of the breakeven rate, i.e. the minimum number of jobs that must be created monthly for the unemployment rate not to increase.
• Gray area – the period for which data has not yet been published (projection).

The courage of the capital market remains the best indicator. The cyclical versus defensive crisis reached a low in April, just as it does during cyclical or industrial recessions. Flows into cyclical assets increased sharply, while defensives were non-existent. The capital market says it is an upward trend.

How will this impact gold

Spot on, mate!


That’s a really sharp observation. If I were the OP, I’d only be looking at long positions in gold—maybe using overbought indicators to time entries—and hedge against a potential pullback by taking short positions on EUR/USD.

Market influenced by a tweet? No.

The charts show us very subtly that the big institutions knew this in advance.

“
ome very strange things are happening in China! They are becoming very hostile, and sending letters to Countries throughout the World, that they want to impose Export Controls on each and every element of production having to do with Rare Earths, and virtually anything else they can think of, even if it’s not manufactured in China. Nobody has ever seen anything like this but, essentially, it would “clog” the Markets, and make life difficult for virtually every Country in the World, especially for China. We have been contacted by other Countries who are extremely angry at this great Trade hostility, which came out of nowhere. Our relationship with China over the past six months has been a very good one, thereby making this move on Trade an even more surprising one. I have always felt that they’ve been lying in wait, and now, as usual, I have been proven right! There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the World “captive,” but that seems to have been their plan for quite some time, starting with the “Magnets” and, other Elements that they have quietly amassed into somewhat of a Monopoly position, a rather sinister and hostile move, to say the least. But the U.S. has Monopoly positions also, much stronger and more far reaching than China’s. I have just not chosen to use them, there was never a reason for me to do so — UNTIL NOW! The letter they sent is many pages long, and details, with great specificity, each and every Element that they want to withhold from other Nations. Things that were routine are no longer routine at all. I have not spoken to President Xi because there was no reason to do so. This was a real surprise, not only to me, but to all the Leaders of the Free World. I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so. The Chinese letters were especially inappropriate in that this was the Day that, after three thousand years of bedlam and fighting, there is PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. I wonder if that timing was coincidental? Dependent on what China says about the hostile “order” that they have just put out, I will be forced, as President of the United States of America, to financially counter their move. For every Element that they have been able to monopolize, we have two. I never thought it would come to this but perhaps, as with all things, the time has come. Ultimately, though potentially painful, it will be a very good thing, in the end, for the U.S.A. One of the Policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America. There are many other countermeasures that are, likewise, under serious consideration. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

”

A few minutes ago:

Potential crisis in the "shadow banking" system, estimated at 3 trillion dollars, which has begun to cause panic on Wall Street?

gold at 4100 today or tomorrow

In Bank of America's latest fund manager survey, 57% of respondents said "private equity/private credit" is the most likely source of a systemic credit event, the highest conviction on the source of such a disruption since 2022.