Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics

Need to trust my analysis a bit more

I decided to short the 6E contract here. A little risky maybe, comparing the Dollar Index vs Gold. There was a Sell alert a few days ago but I didn't trade it. Here Trade Facilitation is increasing notably along with Volatility. I'm on the wrong side of the TPO count but its not too skewed. I don't really have a TP target. This trade feels early but I'm going for it

Well my SL missed getting hit by one tick! I think my odds are improving here. Interestingly, there appears a data pattern as described in MOM, the 2I to 1R day. Yes, I've been backtesting some of these Special Situations!

I'm assuming this is EURUSD. My thoughts for EURUSD has been very risky since correlations breakdown between EURUSD & USDCAD previous week. I have been very careful with EURUSD and trading only those opportunities where it is low-risk.

Not to discourage your trade, but my whole bias with USD pairs has been very on high alert due to market's acting on their independent conditions. However, I hope it works out for you.

My analysis has led me to the conclusion that there might be a breakout for EURUSD, but can't say for certain about direction. Anyways, good luck on those trades.

I personally traded EURAUD and EURNZD. EURAUD has already touched TP but EURNZD is still far from my entry. Will be observing..

Decided to long EURUSD market. This is a risky trade because my analysis had led me to believe that previous trend is picking up. High change of a breakout, but still risky because of the fundamentals and recent situation with the U.S Government Lockdown. Let's see where this trade goes.

I didn’t take profit today. Still have my same SL. Every day the odds change similar to each round of Blackjack, and mine got worse. AMVA was researched and developed for this.

As long as my stop doesn’t get whipsawed I’ll be ok. Fundamentally, the Euro as currency, is headed for the toilet. I’m short larger volume on another one of my accounts.

It's interesting now, because we both have different trades

And your trade might actually work out. I don't have much faith in my setup as I said it's risky but I am going for it because I have the capacity for risk. But, because it's not a confident trade, I have lowered my position size just in-case.

The market from a fundamental standpoint does look bearish. From an analytical perspective looks complex. Something is definitely brewing up. Let's hope for the best of both of us.

Had a 50 pip TP target which got hit. Now the position has been closed fully

Still alive for now! TPOs favor buyers, but Volume, Volatility, and TFF defintely slowing. Also it appears the high was capped. See you all next week!

Best Of Luck!

I decided to take profit. Will look at the odds of further breakout tomorrow. Can't get broke taking profit

This sounds overly complicated and theoretical. I prefer a straightforward, data, driven strategy that actually works in real, time.

Everything is complicated if you don't know what the strategy is about. Read through the forum, understand what AMVT/AMVA is. Read through Don Jones material. Build excel sheets. Work hard like all of us have done...It won't be given to you on a plate

Shorted AUDCHF today, looks a good responsive setup



After a deeper analysis, I decided to close the trade at a short profit. This is due to conflicts I saw within my analysis. This week has been pretty terrible for responsive setups. Will look for further opportunities



would've been shitting myself if I hadn't taken a second look..

Sorry, wrong thread!

It's fine, it's not like we have conversations on this thread

Re: Thoughts on ODC and Chronological Characterization (My current LVN approach)
Hi [amvt],
(Note: My English isn't perfect, so I asked an AI to help me generate this response based on my ideas and logic. Apologies if the phrasing sounds a bit formal!)
I really appreciate you sharing this detailed breakdown. Your insights on "Chronological Characterization" and the logic behind determining Market Condition (Trending vs. Bracketing) are incredibly valuable.
I wanted to share where I am currently at with my own development to give some context. I’ve been working on a Python script that focuses heavily on identifying Low Volume Nodes (LVNs), as I’ve observed these are often the most critical areas for trade location.
My Current Approach (The "Physics" Model):
Currently, I feed the script a continuous stream of 5 days of OHLC data to generate a single, static Composite Profile. Instead of just looking for low TPO counts, I treat the profile as a "Potential Field" (using Gaussian smoothing) to analyze the physics of these structures.
I classify these LVNs based on specific calculated parameters:

1. Brittleness (Gradient): I measure the steepness of the "walls" around the LVN. A steeper gradient implies a "glass wall" structure.
2. Symmetry (Landau Theory): I calculate whether the mass (TPO count) is heavier above or below the LVN to determine directional pressure (Top Heavy vs. Base Heavy).
3. Metastability (False Vacuum): I compare local structures to the global mode to see if a zone is stable or fragile.

(I have attached my generated images, CSV output, and TradingView captures to show how this looks visually.)
The Missing Link:
This generates a static map of historical levels. In a live environment, I simply watch how price interacts with these pre-calculated LVNs.
However, this is where I am stuck, and why your post resonated with me.
While I can identify the location (the LVN) and its properties (e.g., "Brittle"), I lack the data backing to form a concrete probabilistic expectation. I can see the level, but I don't yet have a systematic way to determine: "When price hits this Brittle LVN, is it more likely to reject hard or slice through?"
I have the "Where," but I am missing the "Setup."
Your explanation regarding Chronological Characterization and distinguishing between "Old" vs. "New" distributions seems to be the missing key. My current model is too static—it flattens time. By incorporating your logic of how price respects (or fails to respect) previous distributions, I think I can finally bridge the gap between simply having a level and having a tradeable setup with defined probabilities.
I’m going to discuss your post with my AI assistant to see if we can refactor my script to move from a purely static physics model to one that incorporates your chronological logic.
Thanks again for the inspiration.
Best,
[williamwong]

Hello William,

This is really incredible to see. I apologize for not seeing your post earlier. I am subscribed to this thread, but for some reason missed my notifications and I randomly got to see your post. Thankfully I did.

My idea with Chronological Characterization of Distributions was really simple. All it is, is basically telling you if the market closed in 1st distribution (sorted by time) than its bracketing. Why? Because in a sense the other distributions were rejected and this distribution won the fight for balance. I also made references to Tom Alexander and Peter Steidlmayer.

I am not exactly sure how my idea fits into your scripts or logic, but again, I don't have a clear understanding of what you are trying to achieve. However, if it has prove to be helpful to you than I am really grateful for that.

If you want to further discuss the idea, or your working I am willing to help. Furthermore the community deserves some fresh ideas.