HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

Date: 3rd September 2025.

Global Market Turmoil: Bond Yields Surge, Gold Hits Record High.

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Global financial markets came under pressure on Tuesday as rising bond yields, inflation concerns, and political uncertainty shook investor confidence. The result was a sharp selloff in equities, soaring government borrowing costs, and a flight to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
Bond Yields Surge to Multi-Decade Highs
US markets reopened after the Labor Day holiday to heavy selling, as an avalanche of new corporate bond issuance amplified pressure on Treasuries. Longer-dated maturities bore the brunt, with the UK’s 30-year gilt yield climbing 6 basis points to 5.692% — its highest level since 1998. The surge in yields reflected deep investor unease, leaving equity markets awash in red.
The trend extended globally:

1. Japan’s 30-year government bond (JGB) yield climbed to a record 3.255%.
2. The US 30-year Treasury yield approached the key 5% level.
3. European government bonds also faced selling pressure, reflecting mounting fiscal and debt sustainability concerns.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.69% on worries about the country’s fiscal health, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index slipped 0.4%. European equity futures pointed to a cautious open, with traders weighing risks from bond market volatility and ongoing political uncertainty in France and the UK.
Ben Bennett, Asia Head of Investment Strategy at Legal & General, noted:
"It’s a perfect storm for long-dated bonds. Fiscal deficits are huge, issuance is heavy, and Japan is no longer exporting capital to buy foreign bonds. This is becoming a major headache for governments."

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Gold Soars to Fresh Record
Against this backdrop of fiscal anxiety and political uncertainty, gold surged to a historic high. The benchmark bullion price jumped beyond $3,526 per troy ounce — surpassing April’s record and marking a 34% gain since the start of the year.
The rally has been supported by a weaker dollar, expectations of a US interest rate cut, and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence after President Trump’s political interventions. Trump has openly pressured Fed Chair Jay Powell and moved to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook, heightening fears that monetary policy could be compromised.
Investor demand has also been reinforced by large inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central bank purchases. Analysts at Goldman Sachs now forecast gold to reach $4,000 per troy ounce by mid-2026.
Silver joined the rally, climbing to $40.8 a troy ounce — its highest in 14 years — as investors broadened their search for safe-haven assets.
Sterling Slumps as UK Debt Costs Climb
The British pound posted its sharpest one-day drop since April, falling as much as 1.5% against the US dollar before stabilizing. The slide came as the UK’s 30-year gilt yield touched 5.72%, reflecting deep concerns over the country’s public finances.

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Market Outlook: Jobs Data and CPI in Focus
Investors now await a series of key US economic releases:

1. Job openings and private payrolls data this week.
2. The August US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
3. CPI inflation data on September 11, which could be decisive for the Fed.

Markets are currently pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut this month.
With global bond yields at multi-decade highs, gold at record prices, and currencies under pressure, markets are entering a highly volatile phase. Fiscal deficits, political risks, and central bank credibility are now the dominant forces shaping investor behavior.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th September 2025.

Weak US Employment Data And The Upcoming NFP.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_qJOsNJj
The US Dollar remains the day’s best-performing currency; however, significant risks remain as employment data continues to fall. The US JOLTS Job Openings fell from 7.36 million to 7.18 million. The figure is significantly lower than the previous month and analysts’ expectations. Are investors expecting the US Dollar to fall?



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The court decision that US tariffs are not legal continues to be a big factor for the US Dollar. President Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to review and overturn a federal appeals court decision that struck down his April 2025 trade tariffs, which ranged from 10% to 50% on imports. The lower court ruled the tariffs unlawful, saying they exceeded the powers granted to the presidency under a 1977 law. The development is supporting the US Dollar in the short-term; however, economists advise that this will not be enough for the Dollar to maintain its momentum.

For this reason, the worrying picture which is developing within the employment sector is not having its traditional impact. However, investors note that tomorrow’s NFP data can have a significant impact. Today’s JOLTS Job Openings is known as a lagging indicator, but the fact that the figure has fallen to the lowest since March 2021 would not provide economists with confidence. In addition to this, the US also saw its Weekly Unemployment Claims rise to 237,000, higher than the previous month and projections.

Economists expect tomorrow’s Unemployment Rate to rise to 4.3% and for the NFP Change to add 75,000 jobs. If the figures do not beat projections, the US Dollar may struggle to maintain its value, similar to today.

The US Dollar is currently the best-performing currency of the day, while the worst-performing currencies are the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen. Some currency pairs, such as the USDJPY, are trading at a key resistance level, as is the US Dollar Index. For this reason, traders should be cautious if tomorrow’s NFP data prompts recession fears and more frequent interest rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th September 2025.

Global Markets Rally Ahead of Key US Jobs Data as Fed Rate Cut Bets Strengthen.

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Global markets ended the week on a strong note, buoyed by mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon lower interest rates following a series of disappointing US labour market indicators. Wall Street reached fresh record highs, Treasury yields slid to multi-month lows, and Asian equities continued to track higher on Friday as investors awaited the official August Nonfarm Payrolls report, due later in the day.
US Labour Market Signals Weakness
A run of employment data this week highlighted signs of cooling in the US labour market.

1. ADP payrolls showed private-sector job creation slowed to just 54,000 in August, far below expectations.
2. Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June.
3. The Challenger, Grey & Christmas report indicated that announced layoffs jumped to 85,979 in August, up 39% from July and the largest monthly total since 2020.
4. The employment component of the ISM services survey remained in contraction territory, pointing to a softer demand for labour in key service industries.

While these reports signalled fragility, they also offered relief for bond investors. Second-quarter productivity strengthened, and unit labour costs rose modestly, reinforcing expectations that inflationary pressures may be contained. That combination fueled demand for Treasuries, sending yields down sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.16% from 4.22%, its lowest in months.
Wall Street Climbs on Easing Yields
US equities rallied as falling yields reduced pressure on valuations. On Thursday:

1. The S&P 500 climbed 0.8%, hitting a fresh all-time high.
2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 350 points (0.8%).
3. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1%, supported by gains in growth stocks.

Investors increasingly view labour market softness as a catalyst for the Fed to cut rates. A 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting is now nearly fully priced in by futures markets. Analysts argue that unless job growth or wages surprise significantly to the upside in Friday’s official NFP report, the Fed is set to ease policy for the first time this year.


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Asia Follows Wall Street Higher
Asian equities joined the global rally on Friday. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.9% to 42,945.16, supported by strong domestic data. Labour cash earnings rose 4.1% y/y in July, accelerating from 3.1% in June, while household spending climbed 1.4% y/y, marking a third consecutive month of growth.
Japan also welcomed positive trade developments. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday implementing a trade agreement with Japan that had been finalised in July, reducing tariffs on auto imports from 25% to 15%. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba praised the move as a step toward easing uncertainty for critical industries, particularly automobiles. The yen edged up 0.2% to 148.36 per dollar.
In China, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.5% to 25,194.85, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.4% to 3,778.95. Still, concerns remain that export growth slowed in August due to fading effects from Beijing’s earlier tariff truce with Washington and a high base of comparison from 2023.
European Data: Weak German Orders, Stronger UK Sales
European data painted a mixed picture. German factory orders slumped 2.9% m/m in July, a much weaker reading than expected, though June’s figure was revised slightly higher. Excluding large-ticket items, orders rose 0.7% m/m, but the overall trend underlined vulnerability in Europe’s largest economy. Export orders dropped 3.1%, while domestic demand fell 2.5%, reflecting the lingering impact of US tariffs and global trade uncertainty. A bright spot was the auto sector, where orders jumped 6.5%.
In the UK, retail sales outperformed expectations, climbing 0.8% m/m in July. However, June’s growth was revised down to 0.3% from 0.9%. On an annual basis, sales rose 1.1% y/y, offering some relief for a consumer sector that has struggled under high inflation and tighter monetary policy.
Crypto and Commodities Stay Cautious
Cryptocurrencies traded sideways ahead of the jobs report. Bitcoin hovered near $111,100, little changed on a 24-hour basis. Analysts said Bitcoin continues to move in tandem with equities, with macroeconomic data shaping investor expectations for liquidity conditions.
Goldman Sachs forecasts August NFP will show an increase of 60,000 jobs, below consensus estimates of 75,000, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3%, its highest since 2021. Such a reading would reinforce the case for a Fed cut and potentially support risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, told Decrypt that markets have “largely priced in” weak labour data, but a “Goldilocks” report with moderate job gains, stable unemployment, and contained wage growth could fuel risk-on sentiment across equities and crypto. By contrast, a sharp downside miss might spark initial risk-off moves before markets pivot back to rate-cut optimism, while a strong upside surprise would push yields and the dollar higher, hurting risk assets.


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Outlook: Fed Faces Delicate Balancing Act
The Fed is under pressure to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. With core inflation still running at 3.1%, the central bank must weigh the risks of cutting rates too quickly against the need to stabilise a weakening job market.
Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls report from the US Labour Department will be pivotal in shaping the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets are bracing for volatility, with traders watching whether the data confirms the narrative of a gradual cooling in the labor market—or delivers an unexpected twist that shifts expectations for the pace and depth of Fed easing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th September 2025.
Global Markets Brace for FOMC and Central Bank Showdown.
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Trading Leveraged products is Risky
This morning, European stock markets are edging higher after a mixed session across Asia. Gains in US stock futures signal cautious optimism as investors position themselves ahead of this week’s critical FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. In the bond market, Eurozone government bonds (EGBs) are drawing demand. The German 10-year Bund yield slipped -1.6 basis points to 2.697%, while the UK 10-year Gilt yield fell -1.8 basis points to 4.65%. French bonds lagged, with the 10-year yield nearly matching Italy’s, reflecting investor concerns about domestic politics and fiscal risks.
Across the Atlantic, US Treasury yields edged up slightly, with the 10-year rising 1.0 bp to 4.074%. In currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained steady at 97.50. Gold prices held firm at USD 3,640.20 per ounce, suggesting investors are still hedging against uncertainty. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil gained 0.8%, with the front-month contract trading at USD 63.04 per barrel, supported by energy demand expectations and supply-side adjustments.
ECB Outlook and Kocher’s Remarks
Attention in Europe turned to the European Central Bank (ECB) after Austrian central bank head Robert Holzmann Kocher suggested that the ECB is nearing the end of its monetary easing cycle. Speaking with the Financial Times, he argued that the ECB could pause as long as economic conditions remain stable, but emphasised flexibility if new shocks arise. His cautious stance reflects ongoing uncertainty around Eurozone inflation trends and growth projections, reinforcing the perception that policymakers are reluctant to commit to deeper cuts.
A Packed Week for Central Banks
This week is dominated by global central bank meetings, creating one of the busiest policy calendars of the year. Markets are watching decisions from the FOMC, Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Norges Bank, as well as central banks in Indonesia and Taiwan.
With the exception of the BoJ, most central banks are either in or approaching an easing cycle, as the focus shifts from controlling inflation to addressing slowing economic growth and labour market weakness. The FOMC decision will be the most influential, with expectations firmly set on a -25 basis point cut. However, investors will scrutinise the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the dot plot, and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues about the pace and extent of further easing.
The BoC faces renewed pressure after weak labour market data and GDP contraction, while the Norges Bank may surprise with a rate cut depending on regional conditions. The BoE and BoJ are expected to remain on hold, but their guidance could provide insights into how long current policies will last.
US Federal Reserve: Policy Shift in Focus
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve as it prepares to announce its decision this Wednesday. After months on pause since the December 2024 cut, the Fed is widely expected to resume easing. The real market-moving elements will be the SEP projections, the updated dot plot, and Powell’s press conference remarks.
Markets are particularly sensitive to potential dissents among policymakers. Some, like Waller and Bowman, may push for deeper cuts, while others, including Schmid and Musalem, could argue against easing altogether. This divide underscores the Fed’s challenge: balancing weakening employment trends against stubborn inflation pressures.
Recent economic data paints a mixed picture. Payroll numbers have weakened, jobless claims have risen, and manufacturing indicators show softness. At the same time, headline CPI inflation surprised to the upside, though Powell’s shift in August toward prioritising employment concerns gave investors confidence that the Fed is leaning dovish. As a result, the consensus is now firmly behind a -25 bp cut, with expectations for further easing later in 2025.
Bank of Canada: Weak Labour Data Tips the Balance
The Bank of Canada’s decision on Wednesday is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal in months. While inflation remains above target, the sharp -65.5k decline in employment and the unemployment rate’s rise to 7.1% have heightened expectations for a cut. Alongside weak GDP growth (-1.6% in Q2) and persistent softness in manufacturing and services PMIs, the case for renewed easing is strong.
Markets broadly expect a -25 bp cut to 2.50%, with many anticipating more reductions before year-end. Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference will be critical for forward guidance, as traders look for hints of a dovish bias and clarity on whether the BoC sees this as the start of a sustained easing cycle.
Eurozone: Waiting for Clarity
Following the latest ECB meeting, President Christine Lagarde reiterated that policy rates are now on hold. While the dovish camp, led by French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau, wants to keep options open for another cut, the baseline expectation is stability in the near term.
Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical risks, including the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions, and French political uncertainty. This week’s key data, German ZEW Investor Sentiment, Eurozone August CPI (final reading), and industrial production, will test confidence in the Eurozone’s fragile recovery.
UK: Bank of England Stays Cautious
The BoE announcement on Thursday is expected to deliver no change in rates. The focus will instead be on the voting breakdown and the tone of Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments. With inflation still above the 2% target and growth data sending mixed signals, policymakers are likely to stick to their “gradual and careful” approach.
The economic calendar features UK CPI, labour market data, and retail sales, all of which could shape expectations for the pace of future cuts. Inflation is projected to hold at 3.8% y/y, while the labour market shows signs of easing pressures as companies reduce hiring amid rising costs.
Switzerland, Japan, and China: Additional Market Drivers
Switzerland: Talks on a trade deal with the US continue, with proposals such as building a gold refinery in the US gaining attention.
Japan: The BoJ meeting is unlikely to shift policy. However, with leadership changes and upcoming elections, investors will watch national CPI and trade data closely for signs of pressure on the Bank’s stance.
China: Data on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment will highlight whether the world’s second-largest economy is stabilising or slipping further into stagnation. Weak July numbers, coupled with property sector strains and tariff headwinds, point to continued challenges.[/b]
Key Takeaway for Investors
This week’s convergence of central bank meetings, economic data, and geopolitical developments sets the stage for heightened volatility across global markets. Traders are watching for direction in currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD), commodities (gold, oil), and equities, with monetary policy signals likely to dominate sentiment.
For investors, the balance between easing cycles in most major economies and lingering inflation risks will be the defining theme in shaping market opportunities for the weeks ahead.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th September 2025.

Gold Analysis Ahead of Tonight’s Fed Rate Decision!

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Gold prices continue to rise, pushing the commodity to a new all-time high. Investors are watching closely the upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Press Conference thereafter. Due to this event, market participants are not adding to their exposure levels until further clarity is obtained from the Federal Reserve.

As a result, Gold prices are forming a similar retracement to that seen on the 9th. What will determine if Gold’s trend will continue or if traders will start to lock in profits?



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XAUUSD (Gold) 12-Hour Chart

The Federal Reserve Driving Gold Prices

Analysts widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The Chicago exchange is currently placing a 0.25% cut as a 96% possibility. If we follow traditional economics, the cut can cause only a short-term weakening of the US Dollar, as the market has largely priced in this scenario. Some economists advise that the cut alone cannot create volatility, as it is already fully priced.

However, trends will depend on updates to economic forecasts and the tone of remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors will be scrutinising Mr Powell’s press conference to obtain indications of how many cuts we will witness in 2025. The press conference will take place at 18:30 GMT.

If Powell emphasises the risks of rising inflation and that the committee is neutral on future cuts, it would signal a more cautious approach to monetary easing. Conversely, if his focus is on cooling labour and housing markets, it could suggest a more ‘dovish’ stance. If so, the market would expect a further 0.25% cut in October and again in December. There is a 74% chance of 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025. Citibank is the latest to advise that they no longer expect a 0.50% cut tonight. Instead, the bank expects a series of cuts throughout the rest of 2025.

Some officials are considering the risk of higher price pressures a greater concern than current employment trends. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July, reaching its highest level since January. On the other hand, many members of the Federal Open Market Committee are concerned about the employment sector, where the unemployment rate has again risen.

Economic data in the US is not currently painting a clear picture, with conflicting data. For example, the US Retail Sales from yesterday rose above expectations, boosting confidence in the US economy. In addition to this, the recent PMI reports also rose above expectations. However, other data gives a real cause for concern. For this reason, the Federal Reserve is largely concentrating on Inflation and Employment Data.

Other Central Banks and Gold Contracts
Markets are also closely watching the Bank of Canada’s meeting today at 15:45 (GMT+2), where the central bank may cut its rate by 25 basis points, from 2.75% to 2.50%. Tomorrow, the Bank of England meets on Thursday at 13:00 (GMT+2), followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday. Neither is expected to change policy, but the press conference will again be key.

Furthermore, according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), positions backed by real money stood at 199.305 thousand long versus 32.888 thousand short. During the week, bullish traders closed 2.491 thousand contracts, while bearish traders closed only 0.046 thousand.

Further, the bias remains in favour of an upward trend, but profit-taking amongst buyers outnumbers sellers closing their short positions.

Key Takeaways:

1. Gold prices continue to rise as investors await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and press conference. However, a retracement forms as investors are aware of the Fed clarification.
2. Analysts expect a 0.25% cut, but Gold trends will depend on Powell’s tone and economic forecasts. These include inflation and employment risks.
3. Gold buyers are hoping for a further 0.25% cut in October and again in December. There is a 74% chance of 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025.
4. According to the CFTC's latest report, a bullish bias remains as ‘long’ contracts outnumber sellers.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th September 2025.

Global Markets Digest: Fed Cuts Rates, Asia Bonds Mixed, and Tech Leads Equities.

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Asian bond markets opened mixed on Thursday, reflecting investor caution after the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025. Chinese government bond yields edged lower as traders bet that US easing could give Beijing more room to support growth. Japanese government bonds saw mild selling pressure as the yen firmed and investors reassessed the Bank of Japan’s next steps. South Korean and Australian yields were largely unchanged, highlighting a wait-and-see mood ahead of other central bank meetings.
Fed Cuts Rates but Stays Cautious
The Federal Reserve trimmed the federal funds target range by 25 bp (4.25%–4.00%), its first reduction since December. The vote was 11–1, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 50-bp cut. The Fed’s updated projections (“dot plot”) suggest an additional 50 bp of easing in 2025, but the committee remains divided: six policymakers see no further cuts this year, nine expect one more, and one anticipates larger reductions up to 125 bp.
Chair Powell framed the move as a “risk management” cut, stressing a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach. He highlighted that the rapid slowdown in supply and demand in the labor market was the central concern, while economic activity remains resilient. Consumption is holding up, and manufacturing continues to benefit from AI investment. Powell also noted the Fed does not have a “right or wrong” level of asset prices and does not currently see structural vulnerabilities.
Despite the easing, Powell pushed back against market expectations for aggressive cuts, noting there was no widespread support for a 50-bp reduction at this meeting. He emphasized that policy decisions will remain data-driven, leaving markets uncertain about the exact pace of future easing.
Market Reaction

1. Asia Bonds: Chinese yields eased; Japanese yields ticked higher; South Korea and Australia largely unchanged.
2. US Treasuries: Yields initially fell but reversed. The 2-year closed 5 bp higher at 3.553% (after touching 3.465%), while the 10-year finished up 5.5 bp at 4.083% (after 3.987%).
3. Dollar: DXY rebounded to 97.027 from an intraday low of 96.218.
4. Equities: Dow Jones +0.57%, S&P 500 –0.10%, NASDAQ –0.33%.

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Equities and Tech Lead the Way
Tech shares are driving US equities, with Nasdaq futures up roughly 0.7%. Wall Street saw a mixed session yesterday: the Dow rose 0.6% while tech-heavy stocks struggled. Intraday volatility increased when Powell offered a less dovish tone, prompting a brief selloff. Dip buyers quickly returned, betting on continued rate cuts in October and December.
The Fed’s dot plot remains complex: aside from Miran’s aggressive 50-bp cuts, 10 policymakers expect at least two further cuts, while nine see just one more. Powell’s cautious messaging leaves investors without a clear signal, underscoring that post-COVID equities often adapt narratives to maintain optimism.

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Asia-Pacific: Economic Data and Central Bank Moves

1. New Zealand: Q2 GDP contracted 0.9% q/q, weaker than expected. Governor Hawkesby indicated faster cuts could follow if conditions remain soft. Markets now expect a 50-bp cut in October to 2.5%, followed by 2.25% in November, pressuring NZDUSD.
2. Hong Kong: Monetary Authority lowered its base rate 25 bp in line with the Fed.
3. China: People’s Bank kept its seven-day reverse repo rate at 1.4%, signaling no urgency to ease.
4. Australia: August labor figures showed a net loss of jobs, mainly full-time positions. Unemployment held at 4.2%, while participation slipped. The weak labor tone marginally advanced expectations for the next RBA cut, though no action is expected in September. AUDUSD dipped initially but recovered most losses.

Crypto Update
The US SEC approved new spot crypto ETF standards, allowing faster approvals (about 75 days) for products tied to Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin. Launches could begin as early as October, providing fresh momentum for the crypto market.
Bottom Line
The September Fed meeting reflects a shift from a high-for-longer stance to a balanced, data-dependent approach, but it stops short of signaling an aggressive cutting cycle. US labor market risks remain the key driver of policy, while inflation remains above target. Asian bond markets, US equities, and regional central banks are all adjusting to this cautious easing narrative. Investors should expect continued volatility as markets weigh US economic data, Fed messaging, and central bank decisions across the globe.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd September 2025.

Gold Hits Records, Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Fed, NZDUSD at Key Level.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...hess3_featured
PBOC Keeps Policy Steady but Signals Flexibility
China’s central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said monetary policy will remain focused on the domestic economy, balancing support for growth with the stability of financial institutions. At its latest meeting, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the loan prime rates unchanged for a fourth straight month, keeping the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%.

Although rates are at record lows, markets still expect additional easing later this year. In the run-up to the Golden Week holiday, the PBOC injected nearly 300 billion yuan into the banking system via 14-day reverse repos, a tool not used since January. Local media also report that the central bank intends to deploy this instrument more flexibly rather than confining it to pre-holiday periods.

Equities Mixed Across Regions
Equity markets started the week on a mixed note. In Europe, the DAX fell 0.5% and the Euro Stoxx 50 dipped 0.2%, while the FTSE 100 edged 0.1% higher. Asian markets also diverged: the Nikkei gained 0.99% and the CSI 300 rose 0.5%, but the Hang Seng dropped 0.8%. US futures were modestly lower in early trading. Government bonds posted a patchy performance. The UK 10-year gilt yield slipped 1.2 basis points to 4.70%, and the German 10-year yield was little changed at 2.74%. Eurozone spreads widened as peripheral debt lagged; notably, the French 10-year yield edged above the Italian equivalent.

Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Fed Speakers
The dollar initially dipped on the Fed’s latest rate cut but reversed as traders reassessed the outlook. The FOMC’s dot plot showed a narrow majority projecting two more cuts in 2025 and just one in 2026, fewer than markets had expected.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the cut as a “risk-management” move amid soft labour-market data but otherwise sounded neutral. Strong US jobless claims the following day gave the greenback an additional lift. Going forward, incoming data will guide rate expectations and dollar direction.

The US dollar index eased slightly to 97.48 as most major pairs traded within tight ranges. EURUSD was up 0.3% at 1.177, GBPUSD gained 0.2% to 1.349, and USDJPY held steady at 147.84. Investors are now waiting for a series of Federal Reserve speeches this week for fresh clues on the rate outlook.



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Gold and Silver Extend Gains
Gold pushed to fresh record highs as inflows into exchange-traded funds reached a three-year peak. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts keep gold in demand as the dollar inches down. Haven flows also keep gold underpinned, with tensions in the Middle East adding support. There is also lingering concern that Russia's war with Ukraine could escalate, as hopes of a quick peace deal fade. The precious metal is up 1.2% on the day at USD 3727.40 per ounce.

Silver also advanced, climbing 1.6% to a two-week high, underpinned by tight supply and strong fundamentals. Copper recovered some of last week’s losses after Chile’s state-owned miner signaled delays at its El Teniente operation.

Oil Under Pressure Despite Geopolitical Risks
Oil prices inched down last week and have remained under pressure on Monday, as the market heads for a sizable supply overhang. Iraq has increased oil exports, and OPEC+ continues to roll back production cuts. Short term supply risks, meanwhile, are helping to soften the downtrend in prices. The front end WTI contract is down -0.7% at USD 61.97 per barrel, Brent is down -0.7% at USD 66.24 per barrel. There were reports of further Russian airstrikes on western Ukraine - near the Polish border. Coupled with airspace violations in Estonia and reports that a Russian military aircraft entered neutral Baltic airspace that added to concern of a possible widening of the conflict and further disruptions of energy supply. The EU unveiled its latest sanctions package against Russia last week, which included a ban on LNG imports and restrictions on 118 additional shadow vessels. Tensions in the Middle East also remain in focus and complicate the supply outlook.

NZD Under Pressure After Dovish RBNZ
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand adopted a more dovish stance at its last meeting, projecting two further rate cuts and revealing that a larger 50-basis-point reduction had been actively discussed. Two members even voted for it. Last week’s downside surprise in New Zealand GDP strengthened bets on a bigger cut at the next meeting, weighing on the NZD.

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NZDUSD Technical View

NZDUSD has retraced back to a key support zone near 0.5850 on the daily chart, where buyers are trying to defend the level with a defined risk just below support. A sustained bounce from here could open the way for a move towards the 0.6050 resistance area.

However, if the pair breaks decisively below 0.5850, sellers are likely to press their advantage and target the next major support around 0.57.

Zooming in, the hourly chart shows price action coiling between 0.5863 resistance and 0.5843 support, suggesting a tight range ahead of a potential breakout. A move above 0.5863 could trigger a pullback to the 0.59 handle, while a break under 0.5843 would signal an extension of the sell-off.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd September 2025.

Wall Street Hits Third Record in a Row as Nvidia’s $100 Billion OpenAI Deal Sparks Big Tech Rally.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...c08a48f560c834
US stocks extended their winning streak on Monday, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all closing at fresh records, driven by a surge in megacap technology shares led by Nvidia.



Major Indexes Keep Breaking Records
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 0.2% to finish at 46,381.54. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose nearly 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.7% for its third consecutive all-time high.

Nvidia Leads Big Tech Gains With $100 Billion OpenAI Investment
AI-chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) jumped almost 4% to a record close of $183.61 after announcing plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT. The landmark deal includes a commitment to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia chips to power OpenAI’s AI infrastructure beginning in 2026.

Other tech giants also gained. Apple (AAPL) rose more than 4% to its highest level since December 2024 after Wedbush boosted its price target to $310. Tesla (TSLA) extended its bull run, rallying near a 2025 high on expectations for self-driving products and CEO Elon Musk’s $1 billion stock purchase last week. Oracle (ORCL) climbed 6% after being officially named as a lead investor in the new US-based TikTok venture.



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ASML, Constellation and Vistra Catch Analyst Upgrades
ASML Holding (ASML), the critical supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) chipmaking machines, jumped almost 3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight with a €950 ($1,120) target, citing strengthening AI-driven demand.
Nuclear-energy names Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) also rallied after a bullish Scotiabank call amid soaring data-centre power needs.

Gold Hits Record, Crypto Slides on Liquidations
Safe-haven gold (GC=F) surged to a new all-time high above $3,750 per ounce as traders priced in two more Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end 2025.
In contrast, bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other cryptocurrencies tumbled, with more than $1.5 billion in bullish positions liquidated overnight. Ether (ETH-USD) fell 6%, Solana (SOL-USD) lost more than 7%, and Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) dropped 10%.

What’s Next: PCE Data and Fed Speakers in Focus
Markets now turn to Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. A softer-than-expected reading could strengthen expectations of an October rate cut. Traders will also parse remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and newly installed governor Stephen Miran, who on Monday said interest rates should be about two percentage points lower.

At the same time, investors are watching for fallout from President Trump’s new immigration visa fee plan, which has already prompted urgent internal memos at Microsoft (MSFT) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th September 2025.

Gold Surges to Record High as Bitcoin Pulls Back.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...f2c792afb14503
Precious Metal Extends Lead Over ‘Digital Gold’
Gold, long regarded as the benchmark for ‘sound money,’ climbed 1% on Monday to another record high, lifting its 2025 gain to 43%. The metal now trades at $3,721 per ounce. The move came about an hour after Bitcoin (BTC) slid 3% in 24 hours to $112,000, trimming its year-to-date advance to 17%. The timing has sparked speculation that some profits from Bitcoin liquidations may have rotated into gold.

Although gold and Bitcoin are often compared as safe-haven assets, their price movements rarely align. This latest episode marks a sharper divergence, highlighting investors’ shifting risk appetite amid macroeconomic uncertainty.



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Silver and Other Markets Show Strength
Gold is not alone in drawing fresh inflows. Silver jumped 1.5% to nearly $44, its third-highest price since 1975, bringing its 2025 gain to more than 50%. Since the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, both gold and the S&P 500 have risen about 1%.

At the same time, US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year note at 4.125% (up 2.5%) and the 30-year at 4.7% (up 2%). The dollar index (DXY) strengthened 1% to 97.5, a backdrop that typically pressures risk assets; Bitcoin has fallen more than 3.5% since the Fed’s decision..



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Central Bank Buying Boosts Gold
‘Gold’s recent strength is largely underpinned by robust sovereign and central bank demand,’ said Farzam Ehsani, CEO and co-founder of crypto exchange VALR. Countries such as China and Russia have been aggressively accumulating gold as a ‘geopolitical buffer and a hedge against US dollar dominance,’ he noted.

By contrast, Bitcoin remains in ‘the early stages of institutional adoption,’ Ehsani added, leaving investors cautious about whether it can fully live up to its digital-gold narrative. Since last Thursday, the top cryptocurrency has dropped roughly 5% while gold has gained 5% and reached a new record high of $3,791.

ETF Inflows and Rate-Cut Dynamics
The 90-day change in ETF inflows underscores the divergence: gold attracted $18.5 billion as of September, compared with just under $10 billion for Bitcoin, according to BOLD Report data.

Historically, Bitcoin’s performance improves after the Fed starts cutting interest rates. Under these conditions, the cryptocurrency often plays catch-up and can outpace gold. ‘Gold tends to move first, with Bitcoin following one to two months later,’ said Ryan McMillin, CIO at crypto fund manager Merkle Tree Capital. As private, risk-tolerant capital flows in, Bitcoin typically outperforms, though its market capitalisation remains only about one-tenth the size of gold’s.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th September 2025.

What Can Revive The NASDAQ?

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US indices continue to form bearish price patterns after Monday’s bullish spike set off pending orders and profit-taking. The bullish movement from the past weeks is largely due to projections for rate cuts as well as AI developments. However, the NASDAQ is up almost 14% in 2025 and trading close to all-time highs. For this reason, profit-taking is likely to occur.

What Can Prompt The Continuation Of the Upward Trend?
While the NASDAQ remains at all-time highs, investors will only be comfortable purchasing with confirmation of new, concrete price drivers. The main downside risk to the stock market is the lack of interest rate cuts from the Fed, the weakening employment sector and geopolitical tensions.

Therefore, in order for demand to regain momentum and continue to push to all-time highs, investors would like to see these 3 factors not materialise. The first requirement that investors would like to see is interest rate cuts for October and December.

According to Wall Street Strategist, the NASDAQ and the general stock market are not likely to continue their current trend if we do not see a minimum of 2 rate adjustments. Currently, there is a 91% chance of a 0.25% cut in October and a 74% chance for December. If economic data, such as higher inflation or a higher PCE Price Index, lowers the possibility of rate cuts, the NASDAQ is likely to retrace lower.

Upcoming US News
For this reason, the upcoming US Gross Domestic Product, Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods Orders are likely to be key. Ideally, investors would like to see the GDP figure read as expected, slightly higher Durable Goods and weaker Unemployment Claims. This would prompt investors to continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates, but the economy is not at significant risk of a recession.

The week’s main announcement will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the PCE Price Index to remain at 2.9%, but traders looking to speculate upward price movement would prefer the figure to read lower. If the PCE Price Index falls to 2.8% the NASDAQ is likely to see bullish price movement return. However, if the PCE Price Index rises to 3.00%, the decline is potentially likely to continue.

The Federal Reserve
In terms of commentary from the Federal Open Market Committee, most members are providing a slightly dovish tone. The latest being San Francisco’s Mary Daly, who told journalists on Wednesday, 24th, that rate cuts are likely. However, the Chairman is less convinced.

The Chairman (Jerome Powell) stressed a cautious approach to monetary policy, noting the need to weigh risks from both a cooling labour market and rising inflation. He said the current 4.0–4.25% rate is high enough to contain price pressures while leaving room for quick adjustments.

Earnings Reports and Fundamental Indications
Lastly, October will see the start of the 3rd quarter’s quarterly earnings reports. The first earnings report which will directly influence the NASDAQ is Netflix, which is due to release its report on October 21st. Tesla will release its report the day after. Tesla is currently the 7th most influential company on the NASDAQ, while Netflix is the 9th.

The results of the quarterly reports from the technology sector will be key for the NASDAQ, but it is not likely to start influencing investors until October 6th.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNASDAQ (USA100) 1-Hour Chart


In terms of Indications from Fundamental factors, the signals remain neutral with a slight bias towards a bullish trend. The VIX is trading lower this morning, but is still higher every week. The lower VIX is positive for the day, but only if the VIX continues to decline.

Lastly, the Put to Call Order Ratio is slightly higher and moved away from its recent low. This is positive as the extremely low Ratio tends to indicate an overbought price for the NASDAQ. The High Low Index for the NASDAQ has also slightly retraced, but remains high, which also provides a bullish bias for the long-term.

Key Takeaways:

1. The NASDAQ’s rally is driven by AI optimism and expected Fed rate cuts. However, profit-taking pressures have driven the price lower.
2. Sustained upward momentum depends on at least two Fed rate cuts, with markets pricing in October and December moves.
3. Upcoming US economic data, especially the Core PCE Price Index, will be critical for confirming future market direction. If the PCE falls to 2.8% the NASDAQ may rebound, but a rise to 3.0% could extend declines.
4. Tech earnings season, starting with Netflix and Tesla, will play a key role in shaping NASDAQ sentiment in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th September 2025.

Strong Data and Tariffs Complicate Fed Rate-Cut Decision.

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Is good news bad news? US economic data from Thursday was surprisingly much higher than previous projections. The data largely relates to economic growth, economic activity as well as the employment sector. Even though good news can support sentiment, it can also make the Federal Open Market Committee consider less frequent cuts. As a result, the stock market declines close to a 10-day low.
The SNP500, which is a good representation of the whole US stock market, declined for a 3rd consecutive day. Even the Dow Jones, which includes higher exposure to defensive stocks, falls 2.00% from its recent highs. Even if the positive economic data did not raise concerns about fewer rate adjustments, the new tariffs announced by President Trump last night have nonetheless prompted a clear shift toward a ‘risk-off’ sentiment.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngSNP500 (USA500) 30-Minute Chart

Positive News Triggering Lower Demand For Stocks
The US made public a total of 6 separate figures on Thursday afternoon. The most impactful release was the US Final Gross Domestic Product which rose from 3.3% to 3.8%. Previously economists were expecting the figure to remain unchanged. Also highly influential, the Unemployment Claims which read 218,000, the lowest since July 2025 and lower than previous projections.
Economists were also expecting the Durable Goods Order to decline between 0.1% to 0.3% due to tariff uncertainties and lack of local demand. However, the Durable Goods Orders rose 2.9% indicating that economic activity and demand remains high. Lastly, Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales rose above expectations adding the investor’s sentiment.
At the time of the news being made public, the SNP500 was already trading significantly lower than the day’s open price. When the news was released the price rose forming a retracement, potentially due to the news improving the outlook for the economy. However, eventually the price fell again to a new low as investors contemplated the implications for data for the Fed.
Changes To The Federal Reserve’s
Due to the poor employment data and lack of upward pressure on inflation in the past two months, investors are expecting slow but frequent rate cuts. Currently economists are expecting a 0.25% cut in October and a similar cut in December.
According to Strategists, without these two cuts, the stock market would be trading above its intrinsic value. Much of the increased demand seen in August and September stems from expectations of rate cuts. If those projections do not materialize, a correction may be a possibility.
Due to the strong economic data the possibility of a rate cut in October fell from 92% to 85% until slightly rising back to 87%. However, December’s rate cut possibility fell significantly declining from 73.3% to just above 60%. For this reason, investors will continue to monitor economic and employment data to determine if the Federal Reserve will indeed cut on two occasions. At this point, it remains the most likely scenario.
More Tariffs Pressuring Stocks
On Thursday evening, President Donald Trump confirmed the new tariffs which will take effect on October 1st. The new tariffs include the following:

1. 100% on pharmaceuticals until the company is in the process of moving to the States.
2. 25% on heavy trucks
3. 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinets
4. 30% on certain furnitures

The tariffs are adding to the “risk-off” sentiment which can also be seen by the rising VIX Index and Lower High-Low Index.
Core PCE Price Index
Today’s price movement will largely depend on the Core PCE Price Index. If the index reads higher than expected, the SNP500 can see more downward pressure, potentially to the $6,556.30 support level. However, if the figure is lower than expectations (0.2%), a correction back to $6,706.65 becomes possible.

Key Takeaways:

1. Strong US economic data beat expectations, raising concerns about fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts.
2. US GDP rose from 3.3% to 3.8%, while unemployment claims fell to 218,000, beating forecasts.
3. The probability of an October rate cut dropped from 92% to 85%, December odds fell sharply.
4. Trump announced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, furniture, and cabinets effective October 1.
5. Rising tariffs and strong data fueled “risk-off” sentiment, pressuring equities and lifting volatility indexes. However, upcoming performance depends on today’s Core PCE Price Index.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th September 2025.

US Futures Advance as Shutdown Deadline Nears.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...67f9f87af9a7cd
US stock futures pushed higher on Monday morning as traders braced for a potential federal government shutdown later this week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and S&P 500 futures both gained about 0.4%, while contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%. With funding for the government set to expire as early as Wednesday, investors are unsure whether crucial data releases, especially Friday’s closely watched monthly employment report, will go ahead as planned. The figures feed directly into the Federal Reserve’s view of the economy and into expectations for interest-rate cuts that have helped power recent market gains. A meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders scheduled for Monday is widely seen as one of the last chances to avert a shutdown.
Economic data released last week added to the uncertainty. Initial jobless claims came in lower than projected and GDP growth was revised higher, prompting debate over whether the Fed will slow policy as much as markets have priced in. Wall Street economists now see the September payroll report showing 43,000 new jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%.
Stocks Recover from a Losing Week
Markets are also regrouping after a soft week marked by weakness in artificial-intelligence-linked shares and an unexpected round of tariff announcements from President Trump for October 1. All three major indices declined: the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% for its worst weekly performance since early August; the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.2%, breaking a three-week winning streak.
Even so, equities remain on track to finish September and the third quarter with gains. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is ahead 2.8%, the Dow is up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq, buoyed by technology names, has climbed 2.9%.
Corporate news is light this week. Nike reports on Wednesday in what’s expected to be the most significant earnings release, while Carnival posts results Monday. Big banks will launch the third-quarter earnings season in mid-October.
Precious Metals Hit Fresh Highs
Gold jumped as much as 1.4% to a record $3,812.05 an ounce, surpassing last Tuesday’s peak and extending its winning streak to six weeks. Silver rose 2.4%, while platinum and palladium also rallied, supported by tight supply and continued inflows into metal-backed exchange-traded funds.
The dollar weakened ahead of Monday’s meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders, with government funding set to run out Tuesday if no temporary spending deal is struck. A weaker greenback typically boosts demand for precious metals priced in dollars. A shutdown could also delay the release of Friday’s jobs report.

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Subdued employment figures would strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts at the October policy meeting, a scenario that usually benefits non-interest-bearing assets like gold and silver. Still, policymakers remain divided on how quickly to ease, particularly after some recent economic surprises to the upside.

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Oil Slides on Supply Signals
Oil prices retreated as signs of another OPEC+ production increase in November, coupled with the restart of a key Iraqi pipeline, revived concerns about a global supply glut.
Brent crude slipped back below $70 a barrel after rallying more than 5% last week, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $65. According to people familiar with the talks, the Saudi-led alliance is weighing an output boost at least equal to the 137,000 barrels per day already scheduled for October. That increase is smaller than earlier monthly hikes, and several members have limited capacity to pump more.
Iraq has resumed shipments through a pipeline from its northern fields to a Turkish terminal after more than two years of suspension, North Oil Co. Director General Amer Al-Mehairi said.
Even with Monday’s pullback, crude remains on course for monthly and quarterly gains. OPEC+ has shifted toward reclaiming market share rather than strictly managing prices, while demand has been underpinned by Chinese stockpiling and geopolitical tensions, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets led by Helima Croft expect another incremental 137,000-barrel-a-day addition in November but note that traders are beginning to price in rising risks from conflicts involving Russia and Iran.
Looking further ahead, the International Energy Agency projects a record supply surplus by 2026 as OPEC+ restores production and non-OPEC rivals increase output. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent could fall to the mid-$50s a barrel next year despite China’s continued stockpiling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th September 2025.

US Stock Futures Flat as Shutdown Looms; Gold Prices Hit Record High.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...TDOWN_FEATURED
US stock futures held near unchanged levels on Tuesday, with investors bracing for the possibility of a US government shutdown as early as Wednesday.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 were little changed. A Monday meeting between PresidentDonald Trump and Democratic leaders ended without progress on a funding deal, leaving Congress until 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday to avert a shutdown. Vice President JD Vance warned after the talks: ‘I think we’re headed to a shutdown.’

If the government closes, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) will cease operations, delaying critical data releases on jobs and inflation. This comes at a sensitive time for the Federal Reserve, which is weighing further interest rate cuts. Only one of the agency’s 2,055 employees would remain active during the shutdown.

The immediate focus is whether the September jobs report, due Friday, will be released. With the Fed having already delivered its first rate cut of the year, investors are counting on this report to guide expectations for more cuts. However, divisions among policymakers and mixed data have already cast doubt on a clear path forward.

Despite political deadlock and new tariffs announced Monday, Wall Street managed modest gains to start the week. Investors are also watching for Nike’s earnings after Tuesday’s close, along with the latest job openings data from the BLS.

Asian Markets Trade Cautiously
Asian equities were mostly flat on Tuesday as markets prepared for the potential impact of a US shutdown.

 

1. Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged down less than 0.1% to 45,023.48.
2. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was steady at 26,624.16.
3. China’s factory activity data disappointed, signalling persistent weakness as trade tensions with the US weigh on exports.
4. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4% to 3,878.88.
5. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.1%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.2%.

While past shutdowns had minimal market impact, analysts warn that this one could delay critical economic data, adding fresh uncertainty. Some also note that the administration may pursue large-scale federal layoffs, amplifying risks.

Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management commented: ‘It feels as though traders have picked apart every angle of the shutdown story, but with less than a day before Washington shuts down, the theme refuses to die.”’

Wall Street Recap: Tech Stocks Lead Gains

On Monday, Wall Street closed higher as technology stocks rebounded.

 

1. S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,661.21.
2. Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1% to 46,316.07.
3. Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5% to 22,591.15.

Amazon gained 1.1% after sharp losses last week, while Microsoft rose 0.6%, helping lift the broader market.

The focus now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could sway the Fed’s rate-cut path. Strong job numbers may reduce the likelihood of further cuts, while weak data could heighten recession fears.

Separately, Electronic Arts (EA) surged 4.5% after confirming a $55 billion all-cash buyout, the largest deal of its kind to take a company private.



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Gold Prices Hit Another Record High
Gold prices continued their record-breaking rally on Tuesday, extending Monday’s surge as the looming US government shutdown added to economic uncertainty.

Spot gold jumped as much as 0.9% to $3,867.25 per ounce, surpassing the previous session’s record close.

The lack of progress in Washington has fueled fears that a shutdown could block the release of crucial data, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy decisions ahead of its next meeting.

Meanwhile, industry news added to gold market focus: Newmont Corp. confirmed the departure of CEO Tom Palmer at year-end, while Barrick Mining Corp. announced the surprise exit of Mark Bristow. Both companies are the world’s largest gold producers.

Gold has surged 47% year-to-date, on pace for its biggest annual gain since 1979, driven by central-bank buying and Fed rate cuts. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect the rally to extend further.

US Treasuries gained on Monday, while the US dollar weakened, supporting bullion. Lower bond yields make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, and a softer dollar reduces costs for global buyers.

Silver, Platinum, and Palladium in Focus
Other precious metals saw mixed trading on Tuesday:

 

1. Silver and platinum paused after multi-year highs but remain up 63% and 76% year-to-date.
2. Palladium held firm, supported by supply shortages.
3. Tight markets have driven lease rates for silver, platinum, and palladium sharply higher, signaling dwindling inventories in London.
4. Inflows into ETFs backed by these metals have added to the supply crunch.

Oil and Currency Markets
In energy trading, crude oil prices slipped:

 

1. WTI crude fell 45 cents to $63.00 per barrel.
2. Brent crude declined 51 cents to $66.58 per barrel.

In currency markets:

 

1. The US dollar eased to 148.54 yen from 148.60.
2. The euro slipped to $1.1725 from $1.1727.

Markets remain on edge as the US shutdown deadline approaches, with gold prices surging to record highs, US stock futures flat, and global markets cautious. Investors now await Friday’s jobs report, which could shape the Fed’s path on interest rate cuts and set the tone for the weeks ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st October 2025.

Gold Shines Bright: Record Surge Amid Fed Uncertainty and US Shutdown.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=gold-featured
Gold prices surged to an all-time high on Wednesday, climbing above $3,875 an ounce, as the United States entered its first government shutdown in seven years. The metal’s rally, fueled by central bank demand, ETF inflows, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, highlighted mounting investor anxiety over political gridlock and economic disruption. While gold stole the spotlight, Asian stock markets delivered a mixed performance, with Japan sliding on political uncertainty and Chinese markets closed for the weeklong National Day holiday.

Asian Stock Markets Mixed Amid Japan’s Political Transition
Asian equities moved in different directions on Wednesday, with trading volumes thinner as China’s mainland markets remain closed from October 1–8 for the National Day holiday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 1.2% to 44,411.26 after the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed a slight improvement in business sentiment among major manufacturers. The results reinforced expectations that the BOJ may raise interest rates soon, as inflation has consistently stayed above the central bank’s 2% target.

Uncertainty also lingered in Japan, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party set to appoint a new leader and prime minister to replace Shigeru Ishiba later this week.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.8% to 3,450.62, while Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 1.3%, supported by strong buying in semiconductor shares. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.4% to 8,812.90. The People’s Bank of China said it will inject liquidity through a 1.1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) reverse repo operation on October 9, aimed at supporting consumer spending and business investment.

US Shutdown Fuels Gold Price Surge to Record Levels
The spotlight was on gold prices, which climbed to a historic $3,875.53 an ounce, extending gains for a fifth straight session. The rally came as the US government entered a shutdown after lawmakers failed to pass a temporary funding bill. Federal agencies were instructed to implement “orderly closure” plans, threatening to delay the release of key economic data, including the crucial non-farm payrolls report scheduled for Friday.

So far in 2025, gold has soared over 47%, putting it on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979. The surge has been fueled by central bank buying, ETF inflows, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to Bloomberg data, gold-backed ETFs saw their largest monthly inflows in three years this September.

Silver also rallied, jumping as much as 2% to $47.56 an ounce, less than 5% from its all-time high, and is now up over 60% this year amid tight supply and robust investor demand. By early afternoon in Singapore, spot gold traded slightly lower at $3,864.60 an ounce, while silver gained nearly 1%. Platinum and palladium moved lower.



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Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty Adds to Volatility
Markets are closely watching signals from the Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said additional rate cuts may be needed due to labor market weakness, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan cautioned against easing too quickly, pointing to persistent inflation.

Concerns over central bank independence also weighed on sentiment. Attorneys for Fed Governor Lisa Cook petitioned the US Supreme Court last week to block President Trump’s effort to remove her from office.

Meanwhile, the US labor market remains under scrutiny. Job openings in August were little changed from July, keeping conditions in a “low-hire, low-fire” state. A separate survey showed consumer confidence fell below expectations, reflecting worries about high inflation and weaker job prospects.

Wall Street Extends Gains Despite Shutdown
Despite political turmoil, US stocks posted gains. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4% to 6,688.46, marking its fifth consecutive monthly advance after setting a record last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to a new record of 46,397.89, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% to 22,660.01.

The shutdown has cast uncertainty over future data releases. The Department of Labor confirmed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics would suspend operations during the closure, delaying key reports. The agency was already under pressure following President Trump’s dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer in August, after July data revealed slower hiring trends. Adding to the turmoil, the White House withdrew the nomination of E.J. Antoni to lead the bureau, according to Associated Press sources.

Commodities and Currency Markets
In energy markets, oil prices remained subdued, pressuring energy shares. Baker Hughes dropped 3.6%, while Schlumberger fell 2.1%. Early Wednesday, US crude edged up 11 cents to $62.48 per barrel, and Brent crude rose 12 cents to $66.15 per barrel.

In forex trading, the US dollar ticked up to 147.98 yen from 147.94 yen, while the euro inched higher to $1.1738 from $1.1734.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd October 2025.

Gold Attempts Another Push Higher! Government Shutdown Starts Layoffs.

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Gold breaks through records on Wednesday and continues to rise on Thursday as the government shutdown triggers furloughing plans. Gold has now risen more than 45% this year and is the best-performing metal after Palladium and Silver. The latest price drivers continue to be potential interest rate cuts, a weak US Dollar and the US government shutdown.

US Government Shutdown
Investors are watching closely as parts of the US government shut down yesterday after Republicans and Democrats disagreed on new funding, mainly over tax breaks tied to Obamacare. Republicans, despite holding a majority, couldn’t pass a stopgap bill to keep funding through November, falling short by about a dozen votes. The result: roughly 750,000 federal workers are being furloughed, with some possibly facing permanent job losses.

The White House had previously warned the Democratic members of the Senate that if the budget does not pass, they will use the government shutdown to lay off nonessential government employees.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has furloughed 90% of staff, and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission is down to 6%. IPOs and crypto ETFs will likely stall, while the Federal Reserve and FDIC keep running due to independent funding. Nonetheless, the shutdown can trigger economic strain and, as a result, it puts the economy at a greater risk of a downturn.

The consequence of this is a lower market sentiment and expectations of more frequent interest rate cuts. Both are known to be positive for Gold and so far have helped Gold rise to an all-time high.

Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis
After Gold rose to an all-time high on Wednesday, the price fell, particularly as the European Session overlapped the US. However, technical analysts are keen to point out that the decline is similar to previous retracements and continues to remain significantly higher than the previous low. For this reason, the price is not yet indicating a correction back to $3,791 or $3,721.

In fact, Gold’s price is currently again on the rise and has regained 73% of the retracement. For this reason, technical indicators are again pointing towards the continuation of the upward trend. If the government shutdown indeed continues for a considerable period, the potential for further upward price movement can rise.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngXAUUSD 30-Minute Chart


According to price momentum indicators, if the price remains above $3,989.63, buy signals are likely to remain. However, if the price falls below $3,852.00, sell signals may materialise.

The Federal Reserve
The Fed’s next move on monetary policy is still unclear. Last month, it cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, leading many to expect a continued “dovish” stance. But since then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have shifted to a cautious, wait-and-see approach, citing rising consumer prices and a cooling job market. Their comments lowered expectations for more rate cuts this year, disappointing traders.

However, regardless of the Fed Chairman’s forward guidance, investors still expect a dovish stance. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 98% chance that the Fed will cut rates in October and December. If the Fed makes those cuts, Gold and buyers will likely benefit.

Key Takeaways:

1. Gold surged over 45% this year, hitting record highs, fueled by rate cut bets and a weaker dollar.
2. The US government shutdown furloughed 750,000 workers, with Republicans failing to pass a stopgap funding bill.
3. The SEC and CFTC drastically reduced staff, stalling IPOs and crypto ETFs, while the Fed and FDIC remain operational.
4. Investors expect Fed rate cuts in October and December, boosting gold’s momentum despite cautious comments from Powell.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd October 2025.

US Government Shutdown: Market Fallout, Dollar Outlook, and Gold’s Rally.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...Trump_featured
Investors Brace for Economic Fallout
The United States government has officially entered its first shutdown in nearly seven years after lawmakers failed to agree on a funding bill. The development has unsettled global investors, with US equity futures slipping and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropping 0.1% after the midnight deadline passed.

Federal agencies have been ordered to suspend nonessential services, putting hundreds of thousands of employees on hold and creating uncertainty across vital public programs. Unlike past shutdowns that ended quickly, this standoff looks more severe and could inflict lasting damage on the US economy.

Labour Market and Economic Data Risks
The most immediate challenge is the suspension of government data releases. Reports on jobless claims, factory orders, and September payrolls will not be published, depriving markets of key signals to assess economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

“This shutdown could prove more disruptive than usual because of the heightened stakes leading into it,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

Market Reactions So Far

1. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1% and S&P 500 contracts dropped 0.8%.
2. The 10-year Treasury yield rose one basis point to 4.16%.
3. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumped to 17.28, signalling higher risk aversion.

With stock valuations already stretched after a long bull run, analysts warn that any sharp downturn could trigger forced selling, amplifying losses.

Safe-Haven Demand: Gold, Treasuries, and Currencies
If the shutdown drags on, investors may seek refuge in defensive assets:

 

1. Gold prices have surged to record highs near $4,000, supported by dollar weakness.
2. The Japanese yen and the euro could benefit further if the dollar continues to retreat.
3. Long-dated Treasuries may attract buyers on expectations of weaker growth.

“Given high yields, US Treasuries remain attractive, and we advise clients sensitive to shutdown risk to increase exposure,” said Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Sector-by-Sector Impact
Defence: Defence giants such as RTX, L3Harris Technologies, and AeroVironment have benefited from strong federal spending. While analysts expect little direct impact, investor sentiment could cool. General Dynamics was recently upgraded to a “buy” on the view that any pullback may present an entry opportunity.

Government Services & Airlines

 

1. Consulting firms like Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos, and CACI International often see revenue delays during shutdowns.
2. Airlines, which rely on government travel for up to 2% of annual revenue, could be hit harder. Reduced leisure travel by unpaid federal workers may further weaken the industry.

Cyclical Sectors: Industrials and financials are especially vulnerable if growth slows and unemployment rises. Caterpillar, Deere, and major banks like JPMorgan Chase may face volatility, while consumer-focused firms such as Affirm Holdings could see sharper swings.

Bloomberg Economics projects that 640,000 federal workers could be furloughed, pushing unemployment to 4.7%. Permanent job cuts, as threatened, may keep joblessness elevated even after operations resume.

Outlook: Volatility Ahead
Historically, shutdowns have had limited long-term impact on Wall Street. On average, the S&P 500 has barely moved during the last 20 shutdowns. However, near-term volatility is expected, particularly if data releases are delayed.

Private reports, such as ISM manufacturing and services surveys, will likely gain importance for traders navigating uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th October 2025.

Stronger US Dollar Pressures Oil and Gold as Fed Divisions Deepen.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=OIL4
Oil prices significantly fell on Thursday after increasing in value throughout the month so far. The stronger price of the US Dollar is now harming the price of oil, as well as de-escalations in global conflicts. Is the Dollar’s current trend likely to continue, and what would that mean for commodities such as Oil?

US Dollar
When it comes to the US Dollar, investors continue to price in the FOMC Meeting Minutes for September. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, but policymakers were divided on the path ahead. However, the Meeting Minutes confirm several members of the committee supported further monetary easing, arguing that the risks of a weakening labour market outweigh inflation concerns and noting that recent White House tariff changes are unlikely to fuel price growth.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said he would not oppose further rate reductions to support employment, but warned that if inflation remains well above the 2% target and proves difficult to contain, it could inflict serious harm on the US economy. Regardless of this, economists continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut in October and most likely again in December. Currently, the lower interest rates are the largest risk and downward force for the US Dollar.

The upward price pressure is partially due to the US government shutdown, which is triggering a lower risk appetite. The latest development for the US Dollar is the currency swap between the US and the Central Bank of Argentina. The move is, in a sense, a bailout for the country, which has seen its GDP growth fall to -1.7%.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUS Dollar Index Daily Chart


Investors should be cautious of the resistance level at 99.90 on the US Dollar Index. If the index rises above this level, it will be the highest the US Dollar has been since May.

Crude Oil
Oil prices have risen recently due to the OPEC+ decision to raise output by only 137,000 barrels per day, well below analysts’ expectations of a 274,000–411,000 barrel increase. However, the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which took effect yesterday, has limited further upside. Under the agreement, hostilities will end, Israel will partially withdraw troops from Gaza, and Hamas will release its hostages.

In addition to this, no further escalations have been made in Eastern Europe by Russia. As a result, the upward pressure in Oil prices has significantly fallen. In addition to this, the more expensive US Dollar also makes Oil and similar commodities less attractive for buyers.

Furthermore, Gold prices fell 2.80% on Thursday, mainly due to high profit-taking and the bullish US Dollar having a negative effect. The US Dollar is pressuring Gold prices due to the well-known inverse correlation between the two.

Key Takeaways:

1. Oil prices fell as a stronger US Dollar and easing geopolitical tensions reduced upward momentum.
2. Fed minutes show officials divided on future cuts, but further easing remains likely this year.
3. The US Dollar strengthened amid safe-haven demand, government shutdown risks, and a new Argentina currency swap.
4. Gold dropped 2.8% as profit-taking and the Dollar’s rally pressured commodities across markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th October 2025.

Asian Stocks Fall as US–China Tensions Rise; Gold Nears $4,060.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis.../?file=MARKETS
Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asian equities fell sharply on Monday after renewed trade frictions between Washington and Beijing disrupted the recent period of calm on Wall Street.

US markets ended last week lower as President Donald Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s restrictions on rare earth exports, materials vital for industries ranging from consumer electronics to aerospace manufacturing.

Despite the turmoil, US futures rebounded, with S&P 500 contracts up 1.4% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining 1%.

China’s latest trade data showed global exports rising 8.3% in September compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in six months, as manufacturers shifted focus to non-US markets. However, exports to the United States plunged 27% year-on-year, underscoring the impact of ongoing trade disputes.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slumped 2.2% to 25,700.07, while most other key regional markets also recorded losses exceeding 1%. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% to 3,889.50, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.7% to 3,584.55, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.8% to 8,882.80. Taiwan’s Taiex declined 1.4%, and India’s Sensex eased 0.4%. Japanese markets remained closed for a public holiday.

On Friday, US indices endured their steepest declines in months: the S&P 500 dropped 2.7% to 6,552.51, the Dow retreated 1.9% to 45,479.60, and the Nasdaq fell 3.6% to 22,204.43, signalling renewed concerns about the trade war’s escalation.

Trump, writing on Truth Social, criticised Beijing and hinted that a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping might no longer take place, saying ‘there seems to be no reason’ to continue with the discussions.

Losses were widespread across the S&P 500, affecting nearly all sectors, from major technology firms such as Apple and Nvidia to smaller companies struggling with uncertainty over tariffs and global supply chains.

Equities were already vulnerable to a pullback following the S&P 500’s relentless 35% rally from its April low. Analysts have long argued that valuations have become overstretched, with stock prices rising far faster than corporate earnings, particularly in the AI sector, where some see parallels to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s.

Meanwhile, bond yields fell as investors sought safety. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 4.05% from 4.14% on Thursday, following weak US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan.

Oil markets also experienced significant swings. USOIL slid 4.2% to $58.90 per barrel on Friday, weighed down by reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, a development that could ease concerns about potential supply disruptions. UKOIL fell 3.8% to $62.73 but recovered modestly early Monday to trade near $63.58 per barrel. US crude also rebounded to $59.62 per barrel.

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Dollar Strengthens; Gold and Silver Rally

Currency markets showed the dollar strengthening against the yen, trading at ¥152.22 versus ¥151.89 late Friday, while the euro edged down to $1.1605.

In precious metals, gold extended its rally, rising nearly 1% to revisit recent highs around $4,060 per ounce. The renewed strength came after a brief dip triggered by profit-taking, as investors flocked back to safe-haven assets amid escalating US–China tensions.

The dispute over rare earth exports underscored the unpredictability of trade policy and highlighted Beijing’s willingness to use strategic resources as leverage. As a result, gold once again emerged as a key beneficiary, attracting fresh demand ahead of the European session.

Silver followed suit, surging more than 2% to $51.54 after breaking above the $50 threshold, signalling continued bullish momentum.

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Outlook

As the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies intensifies, market volatility is expected to remain elevated. Investors are likely to monitor diplomatic developments closely, while safe-haven assets like gold could continue to benefit from geopolitical tensions and tariff threats.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th October 2025.

Gold Breaks $4,000; Bitcoin Falls as US-China Trade Tensions Escalate.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...8e3d92ddf2c4a0
Gold Hits Fresh Record Highs Amid Haven Demand
Gold continues to make fresh record highs. Trade jitters flared up again at the end of last week, as Trump threatened China with additional tariffs, which weighed on oil and boosted haven flows. Oil prices, which tried to stabilize following the cautious OPEC+ output hike, sold off again on Friday.

Gold has been on a consistent upward trend since the beginning of the year, when it traded at around $2,669 per ounce. This remarkable rally has been underpinned by strong central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker US dollar, which enhances gold’s appeal for investors holding other currencies.

Gold continues to make fresh record highs in this environment. The precious metal cleared the $4,000 mark last week and is trading above $4,080 per ounce. Central bank demand continues to underpin prices as investors bet on additional rate cuts, while eying geopolitical developments. US President Trump said Sunday that the Gaza war has ended, but tensions in the Middle East have not evaporated and at the same time, the war between Russia and Ukraine may be heating up as the US signals increased support.

Some are expecting gold to rise as high as $5,000 in this environment. Others, however, have warned that the gold bubble is set to burst eventually, arguing that investors should be increasingly cautious and central banks should sell as much as possible.

Crypto rout: Bitcoin tumbles as US-China trade jitters sap risk appetite
Bitcoin fell on Tuesday, cutting short a recent rebound as markets remained largely risk-averse amid heightened concerns over a renewed trade war between the US and China. Broader crypto markets also moved in a flat-to-low range, after suffering heavy losses in recent sessions. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China wiped out some $500 billion in crypto market capitalisation in a matter of days.

Bitcoin was at the heart of this rout, tumbling sharply from a $126,000 record high hit last week. The world’s biggest crypto fell 1% to $113,547.0. Demand for the world’s largest crypto was largely supplanted by demand for safe havens such as gold, which hit another record high on Tuesday.

While crypto markets did take some support from US officials offering conciliatory comments on China, risk appetite still remained largely off.



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Bitcoin rebound short-lived as US-China jitters spark crypto rout
Bitcoin slumped as low as $103,800 over the weekend after Trump’s initial announcement of additional tariffs against China. While the world’s biggest crypto did recover as high as $115,000 on Monday, it cut short this rebound amid few signs of improving US-China relations.

Beijing said on Tuesday that it was ready to “fight to the end” in a trade war with Washington, while also accusing the US of discriminatory practices. The latest trade tensions, which threaten to undermine an earlier framework deal between Washington and Beijing, largely stem from US ire over China introducing stricter export controls on its rare earth industry.

China said on Tuesday that the controls were justified, and signaled little intent to acquiesce to US demands. While Beijing did confirm that working-level talks were ongoing with Washington, it warned against the imposition of more trade tariffs.



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Broader crypto price action
Broader crypto prices mostly moved in a flat-to-low range, as risk appetite showed few signs of improving.

 

1. Ether fell 0.4% to $4,116.56, after falling as low as $3,400 over the weekend.
2. XRP fell 0.6% and remained pinned below $3.0.
3. Solana and Cardano clocked some strength, rising 4.8% and 1.1% respectively.
4. Among memecoins, Dogecoin fell 0.7%, while $TRUMP rose 2%.

Beyond trade tensions, crypto markets were also grappling with increasing doubts over corporate treasury strategies, especially in Bitcoin.

Metals and base metals
Silver outperformed today and also hit a fresh record high, with private investment flows and haven demand keeping prices underpinned. Uncertainty is likely to add to volatility near term, especially as metals look overbought on a technical level. However, geopolitical tensions are likely to keep haven demand underpinned and put a floor under prices at least for now.

Platinum and palladium also rallied today, and copper jumped nearly 5% after selling off on Friday in the wake of Trump’s China tariff threat. The President seemed to soften his stance over the weekend and signalled openness to meet with President Xi Jinping later this month, which helped to revive demand expectations. Ongoing mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia meanwhile are keeping a lid on the supply outlook.





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Oil and trade tensions
Meanwhile, China unveiled sweeping export controls on rare earths and related technologies, which some saw as an attempt to boost Beijing's leverage in talks with the US. The US in turn has been on a stockpiling spree.

Oil prices tried to stabilize last week, after OPEC+ producers announced a smaller than anticipated output boost for next month. Short-term supply jitters added support, amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and reports that the US has been helping Kiev to mount long-range strikes. US President Trump also suggested that Ukraine may get Tomahawk missiles to use against Russia. Meanwhile, the US announced further sanctions targeted at Iran's petroleum exports.

The sanctions included an oil terminal in Shandong, which dealt a blow to Chinese refining giant Sinopec and is set to complicate US-China relations. On Friday, Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on China imports, which rekindled tariff jitters and saw oil prices selling off in tandem with stocks. Markets stabilised as US officials seemed to open a door to a possible deal with China and the US President wrote on Truth Social: "Don't worry about China, it will all be fine!"

Oil prices bounced as a result, but for now the WTI contract continues to trade slightly below USD 60 per barrel after hitting a five-month low on Friday. Prices remain above this year's low from May, but are around -19% below the levels seen a year ago. Forecasts are projecting a sizable supply overhang for next year, and short-term supply jitters may only slow but not halt the longer-term downtrend, especially as tariff uncertainty will keep a lid on demand expectations.

OPEC+ outlook and market structure
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday that President Donald Trump still intends to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, as Washington and Beijing seek to ease escalating trade tensions over tariffs and export restrictions.

Market sentiment has been strained following recent developments, including China’s decision to broaden export controls on rare earth elements and Trump’s warning of potential 100% tariffs and new software export limits starting November 1.

Adding to the strain, Beijing announced on Tuesday that it would impose sanctions on five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean. Meanwhile, both the US and China are preparing to introduce additional port fees on ocean carriers transporting goods ranging from consumer products to crude oil.

In energy markets, front-month US crude futures ended Monday at their narrowest premium since January 2024 over the seven-month contract. This narrowing backwardation indicates near-term supply is perceived to be ample. In its monthly report, OPEC and allies including Russia projected that the oil market's supply shortfall would shrink in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ alliance proceeds with planned output increases.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th October 2025.

Federal Reserve Turns Dovish. BOE to Follow?

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GBPUSD - Technical Analysis
Despite the Pound’s decline on Tuesday, the currency looks to rebound today due to the weakening of the US Dollar. The GBPUSD was trading at its lowest price since August 1st before rebounding due to the Federal Reserve’s comments.

Despite the recent bullish price movement, the exchange rate has risen to a resistance level which has triggered a decline in the past days. In addition to this, on a 2-hour timeframe the price remains level with the 75-period EMA and 100-period SMA. If we switch over to a 3-minute timeframe, the price of the GBPUSD trades above the 200-period SMA but is failing to pass the swing high from earlier in the morning.

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GBPUSD 2-Hour Chart

For this reason, the GBPUSD is close to obtaining bullish signals from technical analysis but is still witnessing conflicting data. This week the performance of the Pound against the whole currency market has been neutral. Currently the GBP index is trading 0.20% lower. The main cause for concern for the British Pound is the lack of economic growth and the recent poor employment data which we can see here.

USDJPY - Technical Analysis
The USDJPY is gaining bullish momentum as the US session edges closer, but remains lower than the day’s open price. This is due to the Yen’s strong performance during this morning’s Asian session.

Even with the slight rise in recent hours, the USDJPY continues to form lower highs and lower lows. In addition to this, the USDJPY is trading below the main Moving Averages on the 2-hour chart and below 50.00 on the RSI. This provides a slight bearish bias. Bearish signals from price action are likely to strengthen when the price falls below 151.186. The next support level can be seen at 149.293, while the resistance level can be seen at 153.235.

Traders should also note that according to experts, a price above 150.00 increases the possibility of the Japanese Federal Government intervention. The government previously intervened in April 2024.

Bank of England
Both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have taken a dovish tone over the past 24-hours due to concerns over growth and employment.

Bank of England committee member, Alan Taylor, advises that the UK economy is at a higher risk of a ‘bumpy landing’. Economists expect a slightly more dovish Central Bank. Mr Alan Taylor also tells journalists that the downside risk to the economy from rising unemployment and weak demand is greater than wage-led inflation.

Federal Reserve
One of the main price drivers pushing the US Dollar lower is the latest comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman. The Fed Chairman advises that the economy remains resilient, but employment shows signs of pressure and weakness. Due to this, he supports further rate cuts but will remain data-dependent.

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency due to pressure from the Fed’s recent dovish comments. Possibilities for two rate cuts for 2025 have risen from 79% to 95%.

Key Takeaways:

1. GBPUSD rebounded after Fed comments but faces resistance and conflicting technical signals near key moving averages.
2. USDJPY shows bearish bias with lower highs/lows and remains below key averages; risk of government intervention above 150.00.
3. Bank of England adopts a dovish stance amid weak growth and rising unemployment concerns.
4. The Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts in 2025, weakening the US Dollar further.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.