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Aussie Pairs

  • #701
  • Aug 16, 2007 12:12am Aug 16, 2007 12:12am
Check this out. This is a one minute time-frame! I feel like a daytrader!
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  • #702
  • Aug 16, 2007 2:44am Aug 16, 2007 2:44am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Got taken out of my AU short @ 8136, hit my target, wished i'd used a trailing stop instead. never mind went short on this trade @8336

added a ahort in AJ @95.48, still holding - TP at 92.50 but this pair has a trailing stop also.

will let this ride now as going out for a couple of days with the family. great timing, it will let the market settle for me.

i have placed Buy orders at 8300, 8400 and 8500. all 100pip trailing stops with 10pip trails just so i don't miss out on too much.
  • #703
  • Aug 16, 2007 2:46am Aug 16, 2007 2:46am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Milk Man
Hey guys,

Just thought i'd share my take on the AUD/USD. Here's a chart showing all my trendlines. Fundamentals and carry still looking excellent for this puppy so when it turns I reckon were gonna see some fireworks. My first stab is at 81.00 via the jacko method, then if it keeps tanking I'll look at 80.00 (roundest number since J-Lo ;P ) and then monthly trend. I got a feeling this one is gonna go off like a frog in a sock guys!
welcome to Aussie pairs, nice chart. look forward to your input.

frog in sock never heard that one before

happy trading
  • #704
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:33am Aug 16, 2007 3:33am
Quoting MPP
welcome to Aussie pairs, nice chart. look forward to your input.

frog in sock never heard that one before

happy trading
Thanks mate. Just got smashed on this one; looking to either monthly trend or Anti-Hedge now.
  • #705
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:04am Aug 16, 2007 4:04am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Milk Man
Thanks mate. Just got smashed on this one; looking to either monthly trend or Anti-Hedge now.
AH it anyway but about 200pips from here and move it down with the current move, almost like it is a AH with a trailing place order.

i'm out for the week and watching the weekly candle, if it closes below 7975, we have another 250pips to the monthly trend line.

lets see what monday brings.
  • #706
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:07am Aug 16, 2007 4:07am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
this from Dailyfx

Short trades have been re established as the bears continue to push lower and key support at 0.8000 has been breached. Hourly studies have rolled over and now that 0.7965 has been breached 0.7945 looks set to come back under pressure. Daily trend studies are heading lower and 0.7680 is our target. Stops above the hourly average at 0.8085. (AS) 08:52 GMT
end
  • #707
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:57am Aug 16, 2007 4:57am
Quoting MPP
AH it anyway but about 200pips from here and move it down with the current move, almost like it is a AH with a trailing place order.

i'm out for the week and watching the weekly candle, if it closes below 7975, we have another 250pips to the monthly trend line.

lets see what monday brings.
I don't quite understand; do you mean leave it go to 8775 before trying the AH? If not can u put it on a chart or something?
  • #708
  • Aug 16, 2007 5:38am Aug 16, 2007 5:38am
where will this madness stop, 8800 ,8900? Oh my God... Why didnt I trade same way as I did while demoing?
  • #709
  • Aug 16, 2007 5:45am Aug 16, 2007 5:45am
Chill Vlad mate, this is one heckuva move. It's been my biggest drawdown to date too. Just wait for the way up again, take 2 aspirin and call me in the morning. LOL These things happen, but they are not the norm as I have come to experience.

Cheers mate.
  • #710
  • Aug 16, 2007 5:52am Aug 16, 2007 5:52am
Wow, I've been watching the AUD/USD drop around 150 pips in the last three hours. It looks to be trying to rally at 0.7900 at the moment, I've got my stops just above that.
  • #711
  • Aug 16, 2007 7:24am Aug 16, 2007 7:24am
Okay this is where it gets interesting. The AJ and AU are right where they were when they began the rally to 107 and 8900 respectively.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #712
  • Aug 16, 2007 7:41am Aug 16, 2007 7:41am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Milk Man
I don't quite understand; do you mean leave it go to 8775 before trying the AH? If not can u put it on a chart or something?
Hi
No, you got stopped out at 7975, current rate is at 7875, so now you can place the AH at 7975. this falls within the Jacko plan.

however as we know this is in an uptrend still, i place trades 200pips above current place at round numbers and or fibs etc, roughly speaking i would now place an order at 8100 for a buy with a 100pip trailing stop.

need to study charts to make sure im not at a res/sup point, just an example of my plan, this allows for the rate to move free but if it breaks out, im in.

hope this helps.
  • #713
  • Aug 16, 2007 7:43am Aug 16, 2007 7:43am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting DutchTrader
Okay this is where it gets interesting. The AJ and AU are right where they were when they began the rally to 107 and 8900 respectively.
i've set some longs higher up on the AU, my AU short still open.
  • #714
  • Aug 16, 2007 7:50am Aug 16, 2007 7:50am
MPP,

7700 is where the rally to 8900 started, AJ rally started at 8800. On the chart you see that usually the AJ and AU correct 100% before assuming a bull trend lets keep an eye on UJ
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #715
  • Aug 16, 2007 5:35pm Aug 16, 2007 5:35pm
Quoting MPP
Hi
No, you got stopped out at 7975, current rate is at 7875, so now you can place the AH at 7975. this falls within the Jacko plan.

however as we know this is in an uptrend still, i place trades 200pips above current place at round numbers and or fibs etc, roughly speaking i would now place an order at 8100 for a buy with a 100pip trailing stop.

need to study charts to make sure im not at a res/sup point, just an example of my plan, this allows for the rate to move free but if it breaks out, im in.

hope this helps.
Thanks MPP; very helpful. I'll have to give ya some cricket lessons in return. (Mwahahaha ;P)

That's very similar to my reversal system; 1.5 ATR(15) retrace= buy. It's been copping a hiding lately though.

Anyhow, I decided to use a 'rough' AH at 80.10 given the round number implications and that's where the old weekly TL was. If it can break that we may have a game on our hands. From there points of interest might be at the 50fib/82.00 mark and at break of old support line/84.00. (See chart) I'm gonna set buys 10 pips through for confirmation though. I don't have trailings on my platform but i'll shift the stops at 125 pips trailing.
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  • #716
  • Aug 16, 2007 6:35pm Aug 16, 2007 6:35pm
Hey guys, just broke 80 then plummeted! Didn't get filled (just- lucky) so i'm out til monday.
  • #717
  • Aug 17, 2007 12:36am Aug 17, 2007 12:36am
Quoting AndrewM
Fow what it is worth , I dont see 8800 in the near future, that should put the Aud/u at about 78 as they seem to parallel each other. I'm looking for a long at about 98.
I hope you didn't do that
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #718
  • Aug 17, 2007 3:56am Aug 17, 2007 3:56am
Just how low can it fall??? This is bizarre, given the recent interest rate raise by the aussies - all the other pairs are holding their ground better, can someone explain?

hmm, eur/aud is up 335 pips today...
  • #719
  • Aug 17, 2007 9:44am Aug 17, 2007 9:44am
Its purely a flight from risk
Carry trades were generating about 6% return per annum but the recent yen moves have eroded that in a week
Technically could go either way but from a fundamental point of view the interest rate differential will see the trades eventually put back on.

Just may take time.

I still favour 80c+ in a few months time
  • #720
  • Aug 17, 2007 9:50am Aug 17, 2007 9:50am
Might see 88.00 in aj
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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