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  • #2,341
  • Aug 14, 2007 5:36pm Aug 14, 2007 5:36pm
  •  tazmet
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Gold Member - Solid Gold Baby! | 47 Posts
US consumers drive the economy and it seems they keep on buying - much to the chagrin of analysts who thought the housing problems and high gas prices would dampen our materialistic desires.
My business model Get pips => Keep Pips => Repeat
  • #2,342
  • Aug 14, 2007 5:43pm Aug 14, 2007 5:43pm
Quoting MPP
Don't you mean load up the long's after all, this is jacko's thread and it's about trading with the trend. Long EU
MPP

I would not say "load up the longs", but I do see a possibility
that GBP and Euro may see some upward movement tomorrow.
Caution is definitely needed.

We'll see.
  • #2,343
  • Aug 14, 2007 5:53pm Aug 14, 2007 5:53pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting tazmet
US consumers drive the economy and it seems they keep on buying - much to the chagrin of analysts who thought the housing problems and high gas prices would dampen our materialistic desires.
i agree same in UK, the problem here is they keep lending you more money to keep spending, and now they have made it real easy to declare yourself broke and then run up more dept.

years ago bankrupt ment broke until your depts were cleared, now speciallist clear alot of your unsecured dept without you being bankrupt, fix that and the economy will slow down quick.
  • #2,344
  • Aug 14, 2007 6:08pm Aug 14, 2007 6:08pm
Quoting stevegee58
OK, here's what I just did.

From the low on June 16 at 1.3263 to the high on July 24 at 1.3852, the 50% point is at 1.3558. I liked two other things about this 50% point: 1) It was resistance on June 5-6. 2) It's near a round number of 1.3550.

So I just got filled on a small buy order at 1.3550. I have another buy order above for an anti-hedging entry (where I was last stopped out from my previous 1.3650 entry) at 1.3613.
1.3550 is a round number??
  • #2,345
  • Aug 14, 2007 8:06pm Aug 14, 2007 8:06pm
Quoting MPP
i agree same in UK, the problem here is they keep lending you more money to keep spending, and now they have made it real easy to declare yourself broke and then run up more dept.

years ago bankrupt ment broke until your depts were cleared, now speciallist clear alot of your unsecured dept without you being bankrupt, fix that and the economy will slow down quick.
Here in the US too they keep lending money to spend ... spending money they don't have then declare bankruptcy ... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
  • #2,346
  • Aug 14, 2007 9:23pm Aug 14, 2007 9:23pm
Quoting MPP
Daily weekly and monthy trend is still up, we need to see a break of 1.3350 to break the channel bottom.

IMHO i think this is still a reset and will be looking for a bottom of 1.33ish from where i will be going long at 1.3400 and so on.

just my 2 pips worth

regards

MPP
Hi MPP,

I have such a feeling it might be heading much lower to retrace whole bull run of 2006-2007 to 1.28xx. Too early to tell, time will show.
Regards
  • #2,347
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:53am Aug 15, 2007 4:53am
Quoting winterwhite
Fundamental forecasts held true for Euro and US markets today,
triggering the continued downtrend.

However, if tomorrow's forecasts for the GBP and US dollar
hold, it could be that we shall see a reversal. GBP forecasts
are positive. Since the Euro has been faithfully following the
pound in recent days, it could be that we shall also see
a Euro reversal. This is especially true if the negative
dollar forecasts become a reality.

Hold tight!
It's the way I think I'm anxiously looking forward for the fundamentals to be released
  • #2,348
  • Aug 15, 2007 12:03pm Aug 15, 2007 12:03pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting dramapips
Hi MPP,

I have such a feeling it might be heading much lower to retrace whole bull run of 2006-2007 to 1.28xx. Too early to tell, time will show.
Regards
It would be interesting to see the info you are using to reach this number. even the monthly has an uptrend line around 1.3000. it maybe that our lines are set in similar locations but we see it differently.

the lower it goes the more longs i can add later.

happy trading
  • #2,349
  • Aug 15, 2007 12:19pm Aug 15, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting MPP
It would be interesting to see the info you are using to reach this number. even the monthly has an uptrend line around 1.3000. it maybe that our lines are set in similar locations but we see it differently.

the lower it goes the more longs i can add later.

happy trading
I'd like to see it dropped near rock bottom, then I'll be loading up longs too ... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #2,350
  • Aug 15, 2007 12:42pm Aug 15, 2007 12:42pm
Quoting Schminner
I'd like to see it dropped near rock bottom, then I'll be loading up longs too ... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
I think that drop to rock bottom may just happen. EUR/USD just broke the 61.8 %retracement of the entire uptrend. I believe that their may be minor retracement between the 1.3425 to 1.3335 to balance out what is happening.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,351
  • Aug 15, 2007 1:13pm Aug 15, 2007 1:13pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting chady250
I think that drop to rock bottom may just happen. EUR/USD just broke the 61.8 %retracement of the entire uptrend. I believe that their may be minor retracement between the 1.3425 to 1.3335 to balance out what is happening.

I agree, looking at my chart i think my SMA will hit the fib in about 4 hrs on the 1 hr chart, then the EU will touch nicely and resume it's down move.

just my view, it maybe a bit later but will post chart nearer the time.
  • #2,352
  • Aug 15, 2007 1:35pm Aug 15, 2007 1:35pm
  •  tazmet
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Gold Member - Solid Gold Baby! | 47 Posts
I will short at 3450 - I believe this would be the break in the daily long-term trend line. I am not confident in a long at 3500 and probably won't be cofident in a long until 3800.
My business model Get pips => Keep Pips => Repeat
  • #2,353
  • Aug 15, 2007 1:45pm Aug 15, 2007 1:45pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting tazmet
I will short at 3450 - I believe this would be the break in the daily long-term trend line. I am not confident in a long at 3500 and probably won't be cofident in a long until 3800.
Have you read Jacko's thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=27286&page=1) it might help with your confidence, i've already placed a long order at 1.3700, will add 1.36 if 1.34 gives way and so on. 200pips from the current position, that way if the trend becomes down i'm not caught with a long but if it resumes the longs will kick in.

happy trading and remember SL

MPP
  • #2,354
  • Aug 15, 2007 2:50pm Aug 15, 2007 2:50pm
Quoting MPP
I agree, looking at my chart i think my SMA will hit the fib in about 4 hrs on the 1 hr chart, then the EU will touch nicely and resume it's down move.

just my view, it maybe a bit later but will post chart nearer the time.
Another bearish signal is comming into effect, at the close of today's daily candle stick. The three black knights could possibly signal a possible retracement back to 1.3500-1.3525, with an additional downward move the following day.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,355
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:55pm Aug 15, 2007 3:55pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting chady250
Another bearish signal is comming into effect, at the close of today's daily candle stick. The three black knights could possibly signal a possible retracement back to 1.3500-1.3525, with an additional downward move the following day.
I'm starting to look at trends/harmonics and 1.3500 would suit my SMA and give the down trend a nice feel to it, currently this recent drop has come to early for me we need to see so sort of allignment/correction.
  • #2,356
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:10pm Aug 15, 2007 4:10pm
Quoting MPP
I'm starting to look at trends/harmonics and 1.3500 would suit my SMA and give the down trend a nice feel to it, currently this recent drop has come to early for me we need to see so sort of allignment/correction.
We definitly need to see some kind of correction to this movement. The possible retracement to the 1.3500 area will be more than likely. Are there any other factors that my contribute to the retracement??? Stochastics are in overbaught area and also RSI is trading near the over baugh area range also. (Daily Charts)
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #2,357
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:14pm Aug 15, 2007 4:14pm
  •  tazmet
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Gold Member - Solid Gold Baby! | 47 Posts
There is strong support near 3400. I expect to see some retracement here. I am currently in short at 3440 (break below 3450). Hoping to collect a few pips before then.
My business model Get pips => Keep Pips => Repeat
  • #2,358
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:16pm Aug 15, 2007 4:16pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting chady250
We definitly need to see some kind of correction to this movement. The possible retracement to the 1.3500 area will be more than likely. Are there any other factors that my contribute to the retracement??? Stochastics are in overbaught area and also RSI is trading near the over baugh area range also. (Daily Charts)
lost me, i trade charts 4h plus and use lower times for watching my trades and adding to them, generally look at wk mn trends.

i then come here to see what others think to fundimentals, stochs, RSI etc. not that great at understanding them yet, working on.

my charts tell me this is simple a correction to the uptrend longterm. what concerns me is that only on the 30m chart have i seen a swing back to my SMA's although my signals are saying short.

happy trading
  • #2,359
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:18pm Aug 15, 2007 4:18pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting tazmet
There is strong support near 3400. I expect to see some retracement here. I am currently in short at 3440 (break below 3450). Hoping to collect a few pips before then.
3400 nice round number and just above the lower trend line at 3375. this 25pips will be hard to break and may take the pair sideways through tomorrow.
  • #2,360
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:57pm Aug 15, 2007 5:57pm
When will it bottomed-out, still waiting ... the EURO can't be that weak, can it ??? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
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