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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - A Real Trading Record

  • #621
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:07am Sep 16, 2025 3:07am
Hi all,
A very active early morning today with an extra wrinkle to our method to look at, plus a bonus blast from the past:
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*NB Apologies, stop in short trade box is stated as 94, actually was 96 (my standard initial 14pts away).

Market opens 8am around 23736 and immediately falls intop a sharp downtrend. Now, I know we are trading a new double top/bottom method at present, but with the downtrend so strong and an obvious (to me at least) rollover after a touch of big figure 00 so shouting at me, I just couldn't resist putting on a short trade using the previous failed-bounce-and-reverse method. So I took a short at 11, stop 25, target 97 - shown in lilac on the chart - and closed a quick 17pt, 1.2R profit at 94. Sometimes, you see something and just have to trade...

Anyway, back to the present method. We see subsequently a very obvious double bottom at the 55 level but I do not take a long here. The reason for this introduces the extra wrinkle to our method, a trend filter. I have previously noted in this thread that I believe trading with the trend is the biggest and easiest edge to be had in this game. It follows, then, that I am keen to have this idea as a part of any method I use, even this double top/bottom system which is obviously a reversal concept. As you have observed by now, most of our double tops/bottoms come in a period of consolidation/ranging. When there is no distinct overarching trend in place, it is fine to take trades at either edge of the consolidation; but when there is a strong trend - as here - I would like to trade only with the trend, hence passing up this double bottom. It happens a trade long at, say 58, would have won easily here, but that's life and you have to make your choices.

That said, we did not have to wait long for another setup, the market makes a triple top around the 86 level and this time I am very happy to try a short at 82, stop 96*, target 68. It happily collapses back sharply and I hold on for a few extra points to exit at 62 for +20pts, 1.4R. Holding on a bit here was not hard as a further test of the 55 lows was likely, but my usual caution took me out at 62 rather than even risking a test of 60. Braver traders, as usual, had a lot more to play for, the eventual move low being at 26.

Really, it is not great practice to be looking at two trading methods at the same time, focus is a desirable thing in trading or you risk shooting randomly from the hip all over the place. My only defence today is that my failed-bounce-and-reverse method is so ingrained in me that I wasn't really thinking about it consciously at all, the trade just jumped off the screen at me and I had to trade!
  • #622
  • Sep 18, 2025 4:53am Sep 18, 2025 4:53am
Can't say this enough, absolutely excellent work, Oldtraderman.

Not only with your recent posts, but also sticking with your proven methods and exit strategies despite other influences in the thread. As you have been in this game (and worked in the industry) for a very long time, you know the follies of attempting to follow other individual's supposed methods which conflict with what you know already works.

As both of us know, there is a significant disparity between what works in back-testing as opposed to what is actually realistic and doable both psychologically and financially when placing and managing trades day in and day out with real money.

Again, keep up the great work.
  • #623
  • Edited 12:06pm Sep 18, 2025 10:49am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting greatescape
Can't say this enough, absolutely excellent work, Oldtraderman. Not only with your recent posts, but also sticking with your proven methods and exit strategies despite other influences in the thread. As you have been in this game (and worked in the industry) for a very long time, you know the follies of attempting to follow other individual's supposed methods which conflict with what you know already works. As both of us know, there is a significant disparity between what works in back-testing as opposed to what is actually realistic and doable...
Hi greatescape,
Thank you for your kind comments, much appreciated.
You are absolutely right, it is important to stick to your method that you believe in and suits you, otherwise you will never be able to trade it confidently and consistently through thick and thin. Of course, you should also always strive to improve, no method or trader is perfect and couldn't be finessed better at least a bit. This is where seeing what other traders do can help - to see alternatives/improvements - but you can't stray from your own personal path too far.

As for backtesting, you are again 100% correct and this is a whole subject in itself! Suffice for now to say that backtesting is a good early stage thing to do, how else can you see if your ideas possibly have any validity? However, backtesting is not trading, as you say, there is a whole extra constellation of real-time factors and emotions that come into play when you trade live. So, I go through a strict progression when I think of something new to try:

1) Set out the precise trading rules for the idea; woolly concepts will not cut it in live trading
2) Backtest over different timeframes, timescales, and markets. A durable method should work across a wide range of environments.
3) Trade a demo account, properly as if it were real money, for an extended period
4) Trade live in small size for an extended period
5) Trade in your normal size

I will go onto each stage only if the previous stage works well. I am happy to tinker and adjust the method throughout the process, it is very unlikely your original brainwave is the finished article. You will likely go through many ideas before you finally get through all five stages, but you only need one decent method to be able to turn a consistent profit. If you don't go through such a process you will never develop a sound method that suits you, and even if you did, you won't have tested or practised it enough to build the necessary belief and confidence in it to be able to trade it properly. Trading really is not a get-rich-quick scheme, it's like any other learned discipline, it takes thought, application, work, practice and perseverence. If it were otherwise the planet would be overcrowded with disgustingly rich traders but, perhaps sadly, I don't see that!
  • #624
  • Sep 18, 2025 12:32pm Sep 18, 2025 12:32pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} Hi greatescape, Thank you for your kind comments, much appreciated. You are absolutely right, it is important to stick to your method that you believe in and suits you, otherwise you will never be able to trade it confidently and consistently through thick and thin. Of course, you should also always strive to improve, no method or trader is perfect and couldn't be finessed better at least a bit. This is where seeing what other traders do can help - to see alternatives/improvements - but you can't stray from your own personal path too far....
Great Write up! I have been trading live very profitable for the last 5 years and because trading is not only my business but a greatest hobby a "man can have ". I love learning other techniques and tinker with ideas that I think could be profitable. It is all about statistics: on Entries, on Money Management and your personal statistics on controlling Your MindFuck(Fear and Greed).

It is very rarely that I come across an individual on FF boards who makes more sense then Oldtraderman. Congrats to both of us for it.
  • #625
  • Sep 18, 2025 2:45pm Sep 18, 2025 2:45pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote}

As for backtesting, you are again 100% correct and this is a whole subject in itself! Suffice for now to say that backtesting is a good early stage thing to do, how else can you see if your ideas possibly have any validity? However, backtesting is not trading, as you say, there is a whole extra constellation of real-time factors and emotions that come into play when you trade live. .............
A better alternative to backtesting is using a Trading Simulator with real historical data, similar to how EA's are tested.
  • #626
  • Sep 18, 2025 3:59pm Sep 18, 2025 3:59pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} A better alternative to backtesting is using a Trading Simulator with real historical data, similar to how EA's are tested.
Hi ikdenk,
Many thanks for contributing to the discussion, all comments always welcome. I know you are 100% right, unfortunately I am both old and old school and have little idea about trading simulators. I just take historical data and run the proposed method through manually to get a feeling of how it might work in practice. Guess you really can't teach an old dog too many new tricks!

In reality, I don't do a huge amount of backtesting, just enough to see if the idea has basic validity across various markets, timeframes and timescales; it is important to me that a method works OK in all seasons, otherwise I suspect it might just be the result of conscious or unconscious curve fitting to a particular set of data. Most of my testing/adjustment is actually done trading it live in demo mode where I find I get a much better understanding of how the method will feel in real trading and, equally importantly, how I might feel actually trading it.
  • #627
  • Sep 22, 2025 9:49am Sep 22, 2025 9:49am
Hi all,
Sorry for late post today, had to rush out after trading. Anyway, an interesting trade earlier, further developing the concept of incorporating a trend filter into this reversal system:
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Market opens 8am around 23556 and immediately falls into a strong downtrend. As per the discussion in post #621 about not wanting to trade against a powerful flow, though the market neatly triple bottomed around the 23470-80 area I was not interested in taking on a long there - inevitably, it would have been a nice winning trade!
However, we then see some 20 bars later, after a rush up to the 520 level, a further bottom test at 70 which sharply rebounds again. This time, I am tempted into a long as this is now four failed attempts in two separate charges down to attack the 70 level. You (well, me at least!) get to think there is strong support at 70 so I am happy now to try a long at 73 on the idea that we are now ranging more than trending. Happily, this works almost at once with a very sharp bounce and I am able to hold on to the trade until it nears the 500 big figure, exiting just before at 96 for +23pts, 1.6R. I imagine it won't surprise any regular readers that braver traders could have done much better again, the move going up to 550 before any meaningful reverse, a >5R profit available if you have the nerves for it.

I hope you can see how I try to distinguish between a market in the midst of a strong trend and one which has possibly found a base that it is more likely to reverse from. The distinction does materially affect whether I will take a trade or not, as you can see clearly here. There is no definitive right or wrong in this - as mentioned, long trades at either bottom area would have won. You will have to develop for yourselves what, if any, trend filters you might want to use in this essentially reversal system.
  • #628
  • Edited 10:42am Sep 22, 2025 10:08am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting Oldtraderman
Hi all, Sorry for late post today, had to rush out after trading. Anyway, an interesting trade earlier, further developing the concept of incorporating a trend filter into this reversal system: {image} Market opens 8am around 23556 and immediately falls into a strong downtrend. As per the discussion in post #621 about not wanting to trade against a powerful flow, though the market neatly triple bottomed around the 23470-80 area I was not interested in taking on a long there - inevitably, it would have been a nice winning trade! However, we then...
O Yes, You mentioned 5R, music to my ears..I am seating in it now, working with MM already, try to stick with longer trades for new technique, maybe 1/4 of the position for now, you never know, PA is random after "The Edge".

Day just started and it is almost ending in a few minutes. Love this Business! All, have a Good Week trading!
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  • #629
  • Sep 23, 2025 3:06am Sep 23, 2025 3:06am
Hi all,
A rather more choppy market this morning with plenty of early setups and a mixed bag of 3 quick trades to peruse:
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Market opens 8am around 23640, drops to test big figure 600 before rebounding to the 30 level. It makes a tight double top there to give us our first setup, a short at 24. The initial 1R target at 10 is missed by 1 point, the market rebounding sharply and causing a scratch at 24, my having moved the stop to breakeven as the trade neared +1R. Irritating, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

The market continues up past 60 - this is why you take a breakeven scratch at 24 and not sit and hope! - before forming a consolidation in the 30-70 area that will bring us two quick trades, one at either edge. First, a failed test of 70 sets up a double top short at 62 which pans out nicely, allowing a +20pt 1.4R profit at 42 on the spike down. It would not have been very brave to hold on longer for a very likely test of the prior local low just above 30 (easily achieved) but I was happy with 20pts and not taking on the 40 level. Each to their own.

The test of 30 spawned another setup at the other edge of the consolidation as the market bounced back off 30, setting up a long trade now at 34. This stalled at 40 and reversed as far down as 22, the initial -1R stop being at 20. Because the market had made little progress from the entry point I had not made any attempt as yet to tighten the stop, you do have to give the market some room to breathe, no matter how keen you are to reduce risk. This proved fortuitous as the market bounced just above the stop and reversed back up as hoped, allowing a relieved +14pt 1R profit to be taken at 48. Again, it would not have been that brave to put the stop at breakeven and looked for a test of the top at the consolidation at 70 but a near miss of a stop loss always makes me very quick to pull the trigger if the market lets me escape for once.

So, a mixed bag of trading in a choppy market, I hope you can see how this system tends to operate both long and short in such conditions. You can also see how luck tends to even out in trading - the first trade missed the target by 1pt whilst the third one missed the stop by 2pts. Over any long series of trades luck will even out and leave skill as the determiner of net results (assuming your risk control is sound, of course) so there is never any cause to curse your bad luck when things don't always work out as planned!
  • #630
  • Sep 24, 2025 2:23pm Sep 24, 2025 2:23pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} O Yes, You mentioned 5R, music to my ears..I am seating in it now, working with MM already, try to stick with longer trades for new technique, maybe 1/4 of the position for now, you never know, PA is random after "The Edge". Day just started and it is almost ending in a few minutes. Love this Business! All, have a Good Week trading! {image}
To be fair and post the other side of the coin in the business we call "Trading", there are wonderful moments like this.

Direction chosen, Sell Entered, Stop Loss Entered, Exit at Stop Loss within 3-4 pips and then PA dropped like a rock for 250 pips my direction, but I am not in it.

That is when I make unhappy face, say to myself "Oooooooooooooo" and look for the next trade.
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  • #631
  • Sep 25, 2025 2:43am Sep 25, 2025 2:43am
Quoting driven18
{quote} To be fair and post the other side of the coin in the business we call "Trading", there are wonderful moments like this. Direction chosen, Sell Entered, Stop Loss Entered, Exit at Stop Loss within 3-4 pips and then PA dropped like a rock for 250 pips my direction, but I am not in it. That is when I make unhappy face, say to myself "Oooooooooooooo" and look for the next trade. {image}
Hi driven18,
I tend to say other things than "Oooooooooo" in such circumstances!
But such events happen often; consequently I do try to incorporate a re-entry method into my trading where conditions permit. Good of you to illustrate this, I will look to post on this subject at some point in the future as it is an inherent part of trading life.
  • #632
  • Sep 25, 2025 8:48am Sep 25, 2025 8:48am
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} Hi driven18, I tend to say other things than "Oooooooooo" in such circumstances! But such events happen often; consequently I do try to incorporate a re-entry method into my trading where conditions permit. Good of you to illustrate this, I will look to post on this subject at some point in the future as it is an inherent part of trading life.
Inherit part of trading life...my last chart on this thread(Oldtraderman, I appreciate your space to post here), wanted to end it on the positive note
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  • #633
  • Sep 25, 2025 2:12pm Sep 25, 2025 2:12pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Inherit part of trading life...my last chart on this thread(Oldtraderman, I appreciate your space to post here), wanted to end it on the positive note {image}
Just out of curiosity, what is the signal on these M5 Dow charts?
  • #634
  • Sep 25, 2025 2:25pm Sep 25, 2025 2:25pm
Thank you for asking...it is a simple technique that took 10 years of hard work to statically push the "The Edge" in my favor. As with Oldtraderman trading, not any sort of indicators were involved..straight PA action.
  • #635
  • Edited 4:31am Sep 29, 2025 3:10am | Edited 4:31am
Hi all,
Having just mentioned in post #631 about the idea of a re-entry procedure in my trading method, it comes up first thing this morning! To look at the two trades in question:
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Market opens 8am around 23840 and immediately runs down to test and then break big figure 800, falling to a 72 low before trying to rebound back to 00. The first recovery attempt gets as far as 97 before rolling over, and I go short at 90, this being for me a double top at the high edge of the first small consolidation in the 70-90 area. The initial stop at 04 is usefully above 00 whilst the 1R target of 76 is also handily above the initial drop low. So, all good and the market does drop back but turns near 80 rather than breaking to the old low and I am duly scratched out at 90. I moved the stop down to breakeven quickly here as the market had previously bobbled around the 80 level so I knew there was a chance it might hold there second time around. But with an entry short at 90 it is an acceptable trade, just didn't quite work out this time.

The second bounce back up does clear 00 and would have just taken out the first trade for a -1R loss had I let that one run. Sometimes it is better to be cautious than brave! However, it immediately drops back below 00 and gives me a second short at 97 on a slightly higher up double top, but still essentially the same concept as before of trying to trade the edges of the consolidation after the opening fall; thus, for me, it is a re-entry trade because it is all the same basic price pattern I am looking at. This second attempt works well, and I am happy to take a +17pt 1.2R win at 80, too scared to wait and see if it will break through 80 this time - it did, eventually, after a little pop up towards 90 and duly tested the prior 72 low.

Such repeat setups happen frequently in this method as the market often tests the edge of a consolidation/range several times before deciding whether to finally breakout or reverse. So, a sensible re-entry technique is appropriate for this method, the main thing to bear in mind is not to get wedded to a particular direction. If it breaks out of the consolidation this method will lose and it would not be a good idea to keep putting on reversal trades as the market keeps moving away just because you want it to reverse. Remember, the market is always right and never has to give you a reason why. Our job as traders is to look at what the market does and put on sensible trades according to our method, never to tell the market what it "should" do, nor getting upset if it happens this time not to do as we would have hoped. Some you win and some you lose - very appropriate trading advice!
  • #636
  • Sep 30, 2025 2:54am Sep 30, 2025 2:54am
Hi all,
A very quick two-and-done right after the open this morning, and another example of having a second attempt at a trade:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market opens 8am at 23716 and, unsurprisingly, immediately goes to have a look at big figure 700. After a drop to 94 it bounces and sets up a long trade at 04, a double bottom with the low of the 8am bar. The whole trade completes in a single bar, running to 14 for +10pts before immediately and disappointingly dropping back to scratch me out at 04, my having brought the stop up to breakeven as the market jumped back up.

This fall back goes down to test the just-established low at 94 and again bounces back up. So I am long again, this time at 96 for a second attempt that does this time manage to reach my 1R target before reversing anew, and I am out at 10 with a +14pts, 1R profit safely realised before this choppy market reverses yet again. The Chop Monster (as an old investment colleague of mine used to call it) is alive and well today!

I hope you can see from the trading of both today and yesterday how this method can make money in choppy markets, but you do have to be nimble and take your profits. Choppy means moves can be quickly reversed, so you have to be alert to extract your profits as they present. In trending conditions you can be more relaxed to hold on for bigger moves, so understanding what kind of market you are in is an important skill to develop as your trading experience grows.

I hope you can also see the conceptual difference in this and the previous method presented in this thread: here we are looking to trade reversals from levels of prior support/resistance; the previous method tries to run with a perceived directional flow, waiting for a failed reverse against the flow to enter. I would not say one is better than the other, they are just different and will likely appeal to different trading psyches. You pays your money and takes your choice!
  • #637
  • Sep 30, 2025 3:25am Sep 30, 2025 3:25am
Hi all,
As I have now reached the end of September for my trading, time for a quick Q3 and YTD update.

Q3 came in 3 distinct months: July was using our established trade with flow after failed bounce method; August I was on holiday so no trading; and September was us starting on a new method, reversals using double tops & bottoms. So, a short quarter but one that happened to be very profitable.

July had 30 trades with 14 wins, 9 losses and 7 scratches for a net 5 wins gaining +6R overall, average win size being slightly bigger than the average loss. September was a touch better with 26 trades consisting of 13 wins, 7 losers and 6 scratches for +7R overall, winners again being a little bigger than losers on average. This gives a very solid quarter of +13R or just over 25% account return on my standard 2% per trade risk, achieved with a very small worst drawdown of only 6%. Market conditions were friendly for my trading and hay was duly made as the sun shone. Expanding out to YTD, the account has now grown a little shy of 70%, above my expectations at the start of January.

I would like you to note that we have traded two quite different methods with no material difference in results. I have previously suggested that the precise method used is comparatively unimportant; what counts is trading any kind of sensible method with discipline, consistency and solid risk control. I would like to think I have done this, the trading method has changed but neither I nor my basic trading process have. I’ll let you judge what is really going on here!
  • #638
  • Sep 30, 2025 7:40am Sep 30, 2025 7:40am
. Market conditions were friendly for my trading and hay was duly made as the sun shone. Expanding out to YTD, the account has now grown a little shy of 70%, above my expectations at the start of January. I would like you to note that we have traded two quite different methods with no material difference in results. I have previously suggested that the precise method used is comparatively unimportant; what counts is trading any kind of sensible method with discipline, consistency and solid risk control. I would like to think I have done this, the trading method has changed but neither I nor my basic trading process have. I’ll let you judge what is really going on here![/quote]

Congrats, very good record , why do you say "above my expectations"? How was previous year? Is there a story behind it?

P.S. Interesting statistics, I trade totally different techniques and also strive for 8-12% profit a month, however my DD is up to 12% a month...I think that 100% Yearly profit is the Goal that makes an experienced trader very happy.
  • #639
  • Sep 30, 2025 12:18pm Sep 30, 2025 12:18pm
Quoting driven18
. ....why do you say "above my expectations"? How was previous year? Is there a story behind it?
Hi driven18,
My average account return the last few years is around 60% pa, in the range of 40%-100% and with drawdown up to 15%. These numbers, however, are somewhat illusory in that they could be made to be just about anything, depending on the risk assumed. I keep per trade risk at 2% of the account and, as you have seen, I tend to trade cautiously. if I risked 1% the results would halve, if I risked 4% they would double. Equally, if I halved or doubled the number of trades I take it would alter the outcome similarly. And if I looked to run trades for bigger profits more of the time, my results would likely be rather more volatile. It all comes down to how you want to trade, an entirely personal decision.

These days I trade for pleasure rather than for a living, I take things comparatively leisurely and my trading size is modest compared to what I used to do. I just like to keep involved with the markets, extract a little fun money from it in a gentle fashion, and keep trying to learn and improve. I recall reading somewhere that trading is a great hobby but a terrible job and, having done both, I am inclined to agree. It is quite stressful when you have to make money from the markets in order to live, enjoying it as a hobby with no profit requirement is much nicer!
  • #640
  • Sep 30, 2025 1:37pm Sep 30, 2025 1:37pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
.................... I have previously suggested that the precise method used is comparatively unimportant; what counts is trading any kind of sensible method with discipline, consistency and solid risk control. I would like to think I have done this, the trading method has changed but neither I nor my basic trading process have. I’ll let you judge what is really going on here!
I believe there is another lesson here:

A restricted trader is a profitable trader

One instrument, one timeframe, one session, one method
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