Trading for a living

Good point, and I agree with you. I don't know where you are in your life, but I'm at a point where I simply don't have the time or energy to work toward something for years, since I've already been doing exactly that for years. I should have earned at least $2 million just for that time, but I didn't.

Yes. It probably depends on the area in the US. I have friends in San Diego and Boston, and as far as I know, you can't get much property for $100k there either.

Yes, it's damn expensive to live here. Not just housing, but all other living expenses too. Many pensioners here, some of whom have worked hard for 50 years, receive such a small pension that they have to continue working or queue up for food at the soup kitchen. Welcome to Germany…

My oldest cousins live in South Africa and have 5 hectares there for what you pay for a shoebox here. But they have other problems. It's a beautiful country, but there's a lot of crime, corruption, and constant worries about water and electricity shortages. I wouldn't necessarily want to live like that just to have a little less expense.

Regarding the trading system, thank you, I'll take a look, but I just don't see myself as a discretionary chart reader and still hope that there's another way. I don't want to be “smarter” than everyone else. All I need is a relatively systematic trading system that achieves a certain minimum return in specific periods (preferably monthly). Changing market conditions, yes, of course. That's why the system has to be robust and function independently of these conditions, i.e., achieve X minimum profit in X time on a repeatable basis.

I think it's beyond question that there are no purely systematic trading systems that can achieve this. In my opinion, many algo traders are far better positioned than the typical discretionary chart reader who ends up messing everything up because of his emotions. See Jeff Simons. For 30 years, Renaissance Technologies has achieved 66% annualized returns using mechanical approaches. I know that's a different league and I don't want/need to be there. As I said, a stable 5-10k per month would be enough for me.

I am always amazed why guys thing trading is not gambling
and it is much more respectful and skilful
With all the software and data available there are many many guys that
are making more than a living from (GAMBLING)
Here his just one and a very interesting story
TONY BLOOM
https://caanberry.com/wp-content/upl...Bloom-Face.jpg



take a look at his
Company STARLIZARD

And yet... 5k/month = 10% monthly returns on 50k no compound = 213% compounded. You need a buffer too, so circa 300% PA is the target.
4.5x Rentech. The only advantage you/I/anyone has here is no capacity limit.

My take is for anyone seriously thinking of daytrading, don't even think about it unless you've a *stable* double digit sharpe. You'll get laughed at by anyone industry-side for such targets because they're used to size. But it's what you need to survive. I've had some stellar years but also two disastrous ones, so this isn't dick waving. Plus remember there's no one to tell you/show you how naïve all of us are before entering into this as a job. You don't know what you don't know, and it doesn't help that 'fake it till you make it' has become a modern-day mantra, so asking for advice...

Anyways, short version: it's brutal, so take it very seriously before you throw away all the protection of a job.

I agree with you that it is brutally difficult. On the other hand, what kind of self-employment is a sure-fire success? Most people fail, even if the failure rates are perhaps not quite as drastic as for retail/home traders who want to make a living from it.

I also agree that traders who don't have to manage hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars of other investors' capital have an advantage in that they simply don't need to trade such massive position sizes as retail traders who trade their own small amounts of money and most likely use leverage.

A buffer, well. It would be nice if you didn't have to withdraw all your profits so that you could let a certain amount of capital grow with the help of compound interest. But for me, that would be secondary. If, for example, I could consistently achieve 2-3% per month, I'm sure I would get the capital I need to generate the minimum income of $5k per month. That would be 24-36% per year. But it's important to me to achieve a consistent minimum of 2% per month and not have months-long drawdowns where I would have to dip into my savings to pay the bills.

So it wouldn't take 300% per year, which is possibly achievable (maybe once or twice), but definitely not with a maximum drawdown of -10% and certainly not for years in a row, otherwise you would quickly become very rich. I consider a continuous 300% per year to be rather unrealistic or only possible with extremely high risk.

Hey Dave! Good to have you here. I actually wanted to PM you and let you know how things are going. Will do so, this weekend.

Trading vs Gambling (from AI)

„Trading, at its core, is a systemic and strategic skill based on analysis, research, and discipline to build long-term capital, whereas gambling is primarily based on chance, emotions, and unpredictable outcomes and is designed to destroy capital. The key difference is that traders can create a mathematical advantage ("edge") by developing systems and risk management, whereas the house edge in gambling destroys long-term profitability for players.“

This is an interesting story and video. I have no doubt that people can make a living from sports betting or have even built considerable fortunes. When I talk about "gambling" in the context of trading, I mean making irrational decisions based on hot air or "gut feeling" where a guaranteed long-term outcome is more likely to lead to financial ruin, or you're one of those outliers who have actually made sustainable money for decades by trusting your gut feeling.

Btw, I myself place sport bets all the time. But so far it has been less successful from a financial point of view ;-)

Reasonable but then you still need 250k capital minimum to make 5k a month. Friends and family are out - unregulated, so you're down to Darwin (15% net profit) and prop firms with all they entail. It's all doable - I'm not trying to be the debbie downer here - but you do need a buffer else you'll find yourself overleveraging if you're short on the month or screwed. It's very stressful.

I'm happy with up to 30% DD without stressing - some use their whole account which would send me loopy but to each their own. Obviously as soon as you're in prop firm territory 10% is the abs max but it pushes up sharpe requirements pretty drastically.

Anyways you get the gist and at least you're working it out upfront rather than when you're sat there on day 1. Best of luck fella

Have you not heard of
Betting Exchanges
were you can trade ?
Starlizard

https://starlizard.com/

In old days, people would trade the lead-lag relationship between these indices on DOM. Nowadays, with so many HFT algos, the opportunity is not for human. Yea, the correlation is too high. If you trade uni-direction with these indices, you might want to manage your delta to a certain level for risk management.

hi.
I live from trading income since 2018. i ve bought a home at 10min walking from the sea.

Hard journey, i ve to say. But it worths entirely.

i can write to u a lot of advices and even if i do i m sure i ll forget some of them.
Basically in few words, in your question itself there s a big mistake imho, you r complaining yourself. That s a dangerous limit.
try to start from another point of view. Potentially u, as everyone, can grow enormous profit. It s up to you.
Efficiency, lucidity, presence, knowledge, planning, rentless dedication.
What u need is the capability to read what is printed day after day in the charts, filtering noise, detect the true signal that leads on best profit and take action. Then, patience, a lot of patience.

Starting nicely is a great advantage. Build a TS and follow it without esitation. And forget a basic income, it s a wrong concept in trading. u can wait 3, 4 months without any gain and then in one single day close an operation that reward you for the entire year.

Hi. Thank you for your comment, and respect if you've managed to find your way. A house by the lake—I could like that too.

"Complaining yourself. That's a dangerous limit."

I wouldn't say I'm complaining. Quite the opposite, in fact. I'm looking for solutions, but when you haven't really made any progress toward your goals for years, isn't it natural to feel frustrated and burned out at some point? Sure, I know that's not a good state of mind for anything, but it is what it is. What can I do about it? I've already taken several long breaks where I consciously avoided all screens and thoughts of trading in order to try to start again with a "fresh mind", but so far that hasn't effectively helped me achieve my goals. Every time, you end up back at square one, and the bills don't pay themselves.

"What you need is the ability to read what is printed day after day in the charts, filtering out noise, detecting the true signal that leads to the best profit, and taking action. Then, patience, a lot of patience."

I agree with you that patience is an important virtue, and I'm very patient. Otherwise, I probably would have given up long ago after 15 years. However, as I said, patience doesn't help me at the end of the day if I still don't achieve my goals, and I'm not getting any younger.

Regarding the approach to trading in general, or what YOU have to do to be successful. First of all, I would say that it's important to find a trading style that suits you personally and is comfortable so that you can actually do what you're doing with the necessary focus and discipline. In this sense, I can already say that I have no skills, interest, or enthusiasm to spend every day manually reading charts, trying to draw conclusions from them in the sense of "predictions", and then making a subjective/discretionary decision about whether or not to place a trade. To me every day is the same picture looking at a chart. Price goes up, price goes down, most of the time it does nothing instead of moving in a rather narrow sideways range. I tried that for a few years, and it didn't help me at all, except to end the week even more burned out, my eyes even more damaged, and not having earned a cent. I tried all kind of magic indicators supposes to help you filtering out the "noise" . All the filtering and trying to get "context" didn't improve my profitability at all. However, I respect people who find this type of trading profitable, and especially those who can even make a living from it.

Regarding the other thing you said. I hear that again and again, too, that you can't generate a consistent minimum income through trading, especially on a monthly basis, and that what matters instead is being profitable at the end of the year and the big winners taking care of the many losses. But how do you then pay for your living expenses in the meantime? Like mentioned, I don't have millions in savings and life here is f** expensive. How much capital you started with when you decided to make a full-time living from it? Then you have the other camp of traders who say to make a living off of it and tell you it's all nonsense. You need a clear daily/weekly/monthly goal, aka 1% per day, 10% per week, 40% per month (and what not), but who can only "recommend" everything without being able to provide any evidence to support it. Of course, there is not a single transparent public track record that would even begin to prove this. Personally I prefer data and facts over someone’s personal „opinion“ or „claims“. It probably also has something to do with the fact that my background is IT and Data Science. I don't want to base my "career" on „opinions“ and „weather forecasts“. I also wouldn't go to a self-proclaimed doctor to have surgery just because he "thinks" he can make a living from it and has been doing it for a long time. So, it would be nice to find people here who can prove their success instead of just claiming it. However, I think there's little hope here on the forum after all the years I've been browsing, but you never know.

Thanks again for your post!

Perhaps you need another break from trading
take a year or two out of your quest
with your skills I am sure you could get a job
with the firm mentioned in above post
you would surely gain a different view point
to trading
ANYTHING

Ah, you meant job/career idea. I thought it would help me with sports betting/trading. I just read that they charge at least £2 million. Unfortunately, I don't have that under my bed right now :-)

Break. Yes, you're right. I'm starting to think I should quit trading in general. I've had a few breaks, but I always end up back at the same point. It seems almost impossible to earn a regular, repeatable minimum income with it, especially if you're not already rich to begin with.

Job/career. It’s difficult. I can't even find anything here in my own country, which is mainly due to health problems and many other personal issues. I'm not the youngest anymore either. The skills (even if I'm not a math/data science whiz) are good, I think, but that doesn't help much if the rest isn't right. I don't really want to be employed in general either. I love my freedom and have a hard time subordinating myself.

Moving to the UK for a job wouldn’t be possible too.

Hi! Please stay friendly :-)

You're correct that leverage itself doesnt equals risk. However leverage amplifies risk.

1. Leverage ≠ risk
2. Leverage × poor risk management = high risk
3. Leverage × proper risk management = efficiency

No offense but i ll ignore your first part of the reply, it just corroborate what i have already written. Spending time to throw arrows trying to make a strike is not the way imho.

Time is the highest richness we got. remember. It s up to you how u manage it as in life as in the markets.

well about me, i ve something to share, at the time i was on another forum and recently i ve posted some of the story in another thread

Just Trades | Page 11 | Forex Factory

actually i manage another account, this is the recent outcome




and this is what i withdrawed

Hi guys, not sure if I can post this here, please let me know if I'm breaking the community rules.

I'm working in a young forex company, and we're looking to talk to traders for research purposes. We'd, of course, include small compensation in a form of an Amazon gift card, so if there's anyone interested, it'd be huge help. It's not a test or something, just 30 minutes of your time and your experience.

If you're willing to participate, please just let me know on which platform you are trading on, which broker, how long and where are you from.

Thank you!!!

The thing with trading and Investing is (unless you mess around with options) you HAVE to follow the TREND

The market does lots of things and it catches us out most of the time, if you are not prepared and disciplined enough

But the simple thing is you have to move along with some sort of trend to make money - I remember bashing my head against my desk in the 2010's trying to figure it out

Now a trend could be a counter-trend move in a bigger trend - to trade that you'd have to drop down time-frames, then when the counter trend trend ends, the main trend would resume of which you could trade on the time-frame the trend is on etc

In a sideways market, the trend then becomes like the counter-trend move and you need to be agile to participate in it - unless skilled or new, best to avoid and just opt for the easiest fruit

The thing with trends is they always move along with cycles, so if you can figure out the trend, you'll catch the cycle and vice versa

SP500 - DAILY time-frame - This is one of the cycles that that market has been moving along to, for YEARS - I'm willing to bet that hardly anyone has clocked this and how to trade it

People should note it MISSED the bottoms of 2020 AND OCT 2022 - there's a valid reason for that, they are controlled by another cycle, so using this cycle to time those bottoms is like trying to force a round peg into a triangle hole

From a trading point of view - you can see the trending sections and the counter-trend or down sections as the cycle peaks and reverses - sometimes you get a downtrend and other times sideways range - this is what happens! and you have to be prepared for the worst case

2 points = #1) You can SEE trading with the trend works, either the UP or the DOWN trends and #2) you can clearly SEE that by working out CYCLES, you get one hell of an EDGE over the market and other traders, so there's a message there!

BLUE line = SP500 DAILY prices
RED line = CYCLE



Also #3) we can use cycles to PREDICT the markets next moves - MOVES plural

Each market has its own unique set of cycles

ALWAYS keep in MIND, we are viewing these things to MAKE MONEY from - yes we are getting super clever in our analysis, BUT, can you see it makes sense and more Importantly it WORKS

So from a TRADING/INVESTING aspect - you then need to work out what the market DOES, when it follows the CYCLE to then TREND - then when you determine those factors, you can put on a position etc and manage it accordingly

I'm doing this to help - I've been where you are

Right, lets be honest, the markets are NOT working out to economic data or news or alogo's or fundamentals - the markets work out to cycles

You have big cycles and then a whole host of other lesser cyclers within - markets ONLY move up or down when aligned in the same direction

Remember, the WHOLE point is to trade with the TREND to make MONEY

Why don't the big fund groups tell you this? Would you tell the public to pull their funds at the top of a up cycle, knowing their investments wil go down in value, but by pulling their funds out, would destroy your business? Greed would say no and that is the fund Industry

I'm going to prove this concept to you, whether you act on it or not is not my concern

Doe you think Interest rates are freely set?

Nope - They are a tool for controlling INFLATION and DEFLATION both PRICE & CREDIT, which are different things

So when Inflation gets out of hand you UP rates and vice versa to stimulate the economy you reduce rates towards 0%

Oh and in all of this, if you think that we all live in a free world, you are vastly mistaken, our lives are pre-written when you are born, you then become a earning machine of the corporation that governs the world - Ever wonder why the FEDERAL RESERVE is not owned by the American people and why it is owned by just a handful of very rich families who have their fingers in lots of pies? That's a whole other section of research!

Anyway - Interest rates FOLLOW the US Bond markets and specifically the YIELDS

This next chart shows you the US Treasury 10 year bond YIELD rate

BLUE line = 10yr YIELD rate
RED line = composite cycle of all those individual cycles

Date range = 1950's to 2018

I'm not Interested in Interest rates, so I've not updated this chart or forward projected it, because you can easily visualise it

Notice the BIG BLUE cycle up, down - its now pointing UPWARDS - that cycle is 40 YEARS in length UP and 40 years DOWN, so when it bottomed in 2018/19, guess how long you expect the yield rate to be tracking steadily upwards for? 40 YEARS

So in 2020, could you of predicted Interest rate rises? YEP

This thing will ebb and flow along with the cycles shown, but in an upwards direction

what does that tell us? It tells up things are going to be mainly INFLATIONARY until it tops out, rates should track steadily upwards to to combat those inflationary forces - PS you can also TIME those Inflationary forces on the commodity markets because it ALL links up and syncs

The switched on ones amongst you are looking at the LEFT hand side of that yield chart to get an idea of what is coming in the decades ahead and when double digits become due - these things repeat folks!





Here's proof of rates following the above cycle!



What about stocks?

This is a WEEKLY chart of HSBC bank UK

BLUE line = price action
Red line = Composite of the cycles

I can tell you for a fact, that each of those big up turns doubled money, because I was fully invested



What about Natural Gas?

The LAST RED LOW point in the cycle was 2024 - I'll let you investigate if it went upwards or not - another 50-100% move!




What about forex?

I did post this to the relevant thread on this site - I bet most missed the point and profits!

8 YEAR cycle - there is ALWAYS a down movement down into the cycle low followed by a rally UP - go see what happened Late LAST year [2024] and early this year [2025]!



I know cycles are hard, but if you just invested 12 months into researching them properly, it makes life & trading 100 times easier

This isn't anything new - WD Gann in the 1900's mentions them, Hurst, millard in the mid 1900's, Walter Bressert in the 1980's etc

Here's a little bit from Walter Bressert:



All these wiggles and jiggles of the LOWER time-frames BUILD the higher time-frames and therefore those bigger cycles etc

CAVEAT - Cycles can and DO INVERT - If you look at the Natural Gas cycle, the 2nd red low was actually a price HIGH not a low - but you'd of been aware of that fact as prices rallied hard to highs when you were expecting a low, so all you do is short the highs when the cycle arrives! As price WILL go down - the CYCLE itself still works, just not what the expectation is/was

This is the CORN market

4 YEAR low to low [BLUE) and 4 YEAR high to high [PINK] cycles shown - So as 2020's PINK HIGH cycle was arriving and price were hit low after low after low, It was blaringly obvious an Inversion was happening, then rather than a HIGH being expected, its a LOW and what happens when a low occurs? Prices RALLY and whoosh exactly as expected



All this stuff is out there in trader land - I didn't come up with it, I just in the 2010's questioned why I couldn't string together winning trades and that led me down a few paths, that I luckily pieced together

The traditional template suggests that is you have a 90 day low to low cycle, then half of that should give a 45 day cycle, then a 22.5 day cycle, then a 11.25 day cycle etc etc - that doesn't always happen, so be aware

Anyway, I can only show what makes sense to me - trade with the trend, which will be some sort of cycle and I've shown how you can use cycles to predict the future - you just need it all to make sense in your head, which it might do or might not - I shouldn't really be giving this sort of content out for free, but i reckon 1 in 10,000 will pick it up and run with it, the rest it will swish right over their heads and then they wonder why they can't crack things, "the markets out to get me, the market makers ran my stop etc"

So when you get a reversal, what happens? Well PRICE moves in the right direction against the moving averages, they cross, Indicators WORK PROPERLY as EXPECTED etc - the issue is TIMING and that is what cycles do, they TIME the markets

Now I don't really use trendlines, but have you ever bought against a trendline and its worked EXACTLY? What you have done, is inadvertently TIMED things perfectly by chance - the overall TREND and CYCLE were obviously UP and not finished, then when the trend/cycle end, you'll struggle

anyway hope it helps, if not just discard

This one was another doubler

UK stock - 4 year low to low cycle (4 years is common!)

So as it crashes to new recent lows, people are getting scared - is it going bust?

I knew that the 4 year low to low cycle was due - as it broke through the support line, into the low, it was a consideration that support sometimes becomes resistance etc

The second chart shows the DAILY time-frame - not shown, but I can tell you the double bottom in April 2025 worked too for another doubler



PPS - If you have a 4 year low to low cycle or 8 year low to low cycle due, it will usually [90% of the time] move UPWARDS for MONTHS, not days, MONTHS, at least returning 30%+, you can then TIME entries on pullbacks to the WEEKLY time-frame chart trend or buy breakouts etc

As this post has aimed to ram down readers throats, is to TRADE WITH THE TREND in the direction of the trend and you will crack this game - good luck

*Please do not ask me to share the cycle program - it ain't available

As I'm in a good mood, this is a cracked on method to trade TRENDS

You often ( a very HIGH % of the time) get a 123 price swing formation, followed by the trend, to which you can trade pullbacks or breakouts

Here's a 3min chart from the other day showing


and here is a daily time-frame showing



The RH's are Ross Hooks - who wrote a book about them - I first read about them in WD Gann's books where he named them Gann pullbacks, but they are the same thing, in a TREND you will find price pullback and then breakouts

As in the previous post - it massively helps by knowing the cycle is due, but you can work out the trend by the ANGLE of the moving averages AND PRICE ACTION - NOTICE the ANGLE & FORMATION of the MOVING AVERAGES in BOTH charts!

PS - on Intra-day charts this HAPPENS MULTIPLE TIMES PER WEEK PER MARKET

Check it out for yourself

To DOUBLE an account risking 1% per trade, you need to make a NET 2.3% PER WEEK over a 44 week trading year - Traders can mull over how they go about doing that, but believe you me, it can be done multiple times over

Thanks for sharing all this but it’s too much information for me and I couldn’t trade like that. Hopefully it’s helpful to some other people here.

Personally, I’m looking for a very clear/objektive daily trading plan that I can follow either in a manual or preferable even in more systematic/automated way. I already told that reading charts on my own discretion day in and day out won’t help me much missing 99% of the real important things. I name a few things.

- Which markets to trade. Is one enough or does it need several?
- How much time it takes me each day (I only have 2-3 hours available either with the beginning of the London or New York market opens)
- What EXACTLY is my setup/trigger to place a trade or multiple trades (I don’t like indicators or reading charts for any magic patterns or formations, cycles for an infinite amount of time - spend already YEARS of my lifetime doing all this crap)
- What is my percentage risk per order
- Where do I place my stops/target or otherwise „manage the trade“ (I prefer no active trade management and rather fixed stops/targets or trailing stop/profits)
- What is my overall max. risk per day/week/month
- What is the max. amount of orders I‘ll place per day/week/month
- Does all of the above will help to reach my goal of making a steady minimum return of +1-2% per month with less than a max. drawdown of -5-10%.
- How much equity do I need in my trading account to do so.

All these technical analyses, trends, cycles isn’t going to help me for 1 cent ;-)

I guess what I need is some kind of mentor who actually knows wtf to do to make a living with this and can tell me how to create very objektive pre-defined plan like this. I want to focus on execution and discipline doing something to reach a clear goal, not trying to read/interpret charts all day long where i already know price will either go up, down or sideways.