EURUSD & GOLD

sl hit and all closed for some profit

h4 macd is not happy with bulls

Good morning!

1. Today's two economic indicators will show decline.
2. Price above the MACD signal line, strong wave, no divergence;
3. Traders anticipate rate cuts and are positioning themselves in gold.

A question for you: why did the USD appreciate in September last year when interest rates fell, and now the USD is falling?

Gold may go to 3800 and I ahve taken 3 entry for this week.

For me it is extremely risky buying gold at this price so I will avoid

I recovered my account very fast after changing my strategy

May I know what is this template you use?

BestTraderEv designed this template for me

https://www.forexfactory.com/besttraderev

I am new to forexfactory. I am looking for a gold thread. Is this even active? I see no new posts for a long time.

The other main Gold thread, do not allow posts from a newbie.

Here’s a breakdown of how the economic / macro news around the week of **September 22** could affect **XAU/USD (gold priced in USD)**, what the drivers are, and possible scenarios. (If you want a more technical view after this, I can do that too.)

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## Key Drivers Expected in the Week starting Sept 22

Several economic indicators and policy‐events are likely to influence gold. Key among them:

1. **US Inflation Data (CPI / PCE etc.)**
Inflation numbers are crucial because they inform how aggressive the Federal Reserve might be with interest rates. Softer inflation → expectations for easier monetary policy → good for gold. Strong inflation → risk of tighter policy → bad for gold.

2. **Federal Reserve Policy Signals / Speeches**
Already markets have priced in some rate cuts. Any comments from Fed officials that are more hawkish (i.e. insisting that rates stay high, or cautioning about inflation) could dampen gold; more dovish tone will support gold. Recent moves have shown this sensitivity. ([Reuters][1])

3. **US Economic Strength / Weakness (Jobs, GDP, Retail etc.)**
If data (e.g. jobs, GDP) shows the US economy is strong, then that tends to push the USD up, Treasury yields up, which can make gold less attractive (since it’s non-yielding). On the other hand, weak data tends to increase gold demand.

4. **USD Strength / Weakness & Interest Rates**
The dollar and yields are always important. If the USD strengthens (especially relative to other currencies), that tends to hurt gold; if yields rise (especially real yields, i.e. adjusted for inflation), gold tends to be less attractive. Conversely, a weak USD, lower real yields help gold.

5. **Geopolitical / Safe‐Haven Drivers**
Any geopolitical tension or crises tend to boost gold, as investors move to safe assets. News about global instability, war, trade disruptions etc can feed gold’s gains.

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## Recent Context (just prior to Sept 22)

* The Fed cut interest rates by 25bps recently, but the tone was cautious (“meeting-by-meeting”). ([Reuters][2])
* Gold has been rising and hitting record highs ahead of that cut. ([Reuters][3])
* There are strong market expectations that more rate cuts may follow later in the year. ([Reuters][1])

So gold is already somewhat priced for easing, or at least for some softness in the US economic metrics.

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## How Events in the Week of Sept 22 Might Move XAU/USD

Here are possible scenarios and expected reactions:

| Scenario | Likely Catalyst | Expected Effect on Gold (XAU/USD) |
| ---------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Bullish scenario** | US inflation comes in softer than expected; jobs data weaker; Fed grips dovish commentary; dollar weakens; geopolitical tensions escalate | Gold rises. Might break above recent resistance, perhaps pushing to new highs. Strong upside possible if multiple dovish surprises. |
| **Neutral / Mixed scenario** | Data is mixed: inflation slightly off but jobs strong; Fed cautious but not overly hawkish; USD moves sideways | Gold may consolidate. There may be profit-taking. Price oscillation around key support/resistance. Tight trading range. |
| **Bearish scenario** | Inflation higher than expected; jobs / GDP solid; Fed signals that rates might stay elevated; USD strengthens; yields increase | Gold could decline. The upside might be capped. Possible downward correction or pullback toward support levels. Might see risk of dropping some of recent gains. |

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## Likely Outlook

Given the recent momentum (rally from expectations of rate cuts, safe‐haven demand, weaker USD), the balance of risk seems slightly tilted **bullish to neutral**. That is:

* If things go well for gold (e.g. dovish surprises), it could make further gains.
* But gold is vulnerable to any surprises on the inflation or economic strength side that shift expectations toward fewer or delayed rate cuts.

So I’d expect:

* Short‐term volatility in XAU/USD around when the major US inflation / jobs / Fed commentary events hit.
* Possible test of resistance levels if the data are soft.
* If data are strong, a possible retracement / pullback.

---

If you like, I can pull up specific dates of US releases in that week (CPI, Fed speeches, etc.) and estimate levels (support/resistance) for XAU/USD. Do you want that?

[1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/...ce=chatgpt.com "Gold heads for fifth weekly rise as Fed signals further policy easing"
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/...ce=chatgpt.com "Gold eases as dollar firms after Fed meeting, Powell comments"
[3]: https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...ce=chatgpt.com "Gold prices soar ahead of Fed rate cut"

This has been the case until now, but an explosive increase in inflation is coming.

GDP growth rate and Friday news will impact gold

good morning

Good morning !

Strong USD

[citat=PatienceFx;15398457]{imagine}[/citat]

going for 3707

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