USD/JPY Discussion

Hi guys,

When I first started trading if someone asked me if I was a technical or fundamental trader I would reply I was statistical. While I have come a long way from those early days, I still like to play with the numbers.

Subsequently I have downloaded daily data from IBFX from July 1999 to pull out some statistics on USDJPY following on from Dove's comments about the pairs movement.

My analysis is developing and the spreadsheet is a bit messy at the moment but I thought I would post a couple of interesting stats off the bat and see if you had any ideas as to what might be interesting. This is based on the pivot points only and the OHLC data. It ignores the intraday movement to that extent.

With a sample size of 2124 days, which is statistically significant, you may be interested to know that:

42.1% of trading days S1 was hit (i.e. low of the day equal to or lower than S1)

42.0% of trading days R1 was hit

Therefore 84.1% of days one of the points was hit.

11.6% of days where 1 pivot point was hit the other was also hit

Only 16.3% of days when S1 was hit did the day close above the pivot

Only 15.6% of days when R1 was hit did the day close below the pivot


Something to chew on. Any ideas for anything let me know.

G-Man

thanx for the info G-man

price bounced off S1 again

On my chart (5 min) it closed below S1 (117.75) and even made new low for today.

Now broke yesterday's low but still waiting for confirmation (close below yesterday low)

If there are any of you still around, looks like another nice reversal bar forming on the 30 min.

Also divergence on some indis on lower TF's.

G-Man

I guess no S2 for us yet It was tricky but thankfully I didn't jump just after it closed below S1 but I waited for confirmation and that was good idea.

We will see if this going to be one of these G-Man's 16.3% days (you know,when price hit S1 and closes above it) ... I hope not So we can ride all the way to S2

Come off a bit now. Risky trades at this time of day now.

G-Man

OK. Here's an update on my stats.

I was doing some checking and it seems that the data I downloaded as daily runs from 00:00 to 00:00 EST. This provides a potentially significant different closing value, which would change the nature of the pivot values generated.

I would suggest that the stats would not vary greatly, but until I can get data more commensurate with our requirements in regard to the times we calculate the pivot values from I will cease from doing any further analysis.

If anyone knows where this data can be downloaded from please let me know.

Thanks,

G-Man

edit: I have now downloaded hourly data, so I should be able to work with that. Just need to put it into daily!!!!

Dove likes to trade this time of day before 5:00 PM est

He says the traders settle their positions here.
He like to trade with the trend

Hello Traders – This morning was the first time in the two years I been trading pivots to witness the movement to the WEEKLY pivot before making the turn for the S1.

Through my experience, if the R1 or S1, as in this case was not hit even by one pip, it will return from where it started and then go back to shut the door which is the S1…..

The started point is where the daily trend had turned, as in the scenario, for the down….. The actual returning point is where the high candle was at the time of the turn and in this case it was at the weekly central pivot. This is also the first I have seen it this high before a turn and I did not give it much thought….

But, it did prove that no–matter how far it travels it will turn before the 17:00 new pivots and hit the S1 and same thing visa versa.

Now, I notice on the post you traders where trying to figure which way after the hit on 117.75…. Well, one thing is for sure; When it hits and retraces 15+ pips it will not go on to the next support. Only when it drives through the S1, or R1, without a retrace will it continue on. Very seldom will you see it with the Yen because of the powers of the currencies.

As you have seen today it made its way back to the daily and turn again….. Because of the spread of pips between the central and daily it also hit the central…..

This is why I love working the usd/jpy….. It is the only pair in the market that will work the pivots and there are more pips working the pivots on this pair then there are with any other pair including the pound.

It is now moving its way down again below the 117.75 and the reason for it to do it now is because this is the first time today that a 1 hour candle had open below the S1…..

One thing to keep in mind are the WEEKLY pivots..... Sometime this week it will hit the S1 and the R1.... The low is 117.14 and the high is 119.78.... very seldom I ever see it busting through either one but anything is possible.


I need to clarify that..... I'm saying about hitting the R1 for this week only because it is getting ready to start a journey upward.... On a normal trend of the weekly candles it will always hit the weekly S1 or R1 depending on the trend....

dove whats your stance on UJ.
currently UJ @ 117.60.

up or down.

I don't trade between the hours of 17:00 and 20:00 ET - to much up and down during those hours.

Every once in a great while the market will bust open at 17:00 and only then will I trade.....

For anyone who wants to know - the daily trend is down.

This may retrace about now and then on to the S1 - 117.23, with a re-bounce off the 117.14... So keep an eye on that.

Right now we are in a very heavy down trend and have been since 10:00 am ET this morning.

OK - here is the retrace

Here is something to write down in your note book and that is on the retraces with the Yen, it can take anywhere between 5 minute to 2 hours to complete...... so Never follow the candles; indicators only.

To clarify the time table for the retraces will depend upon the power of the daily trend. Like today, there is much power in this trend. So retraces will remain minimal...

are you sure.

As you notice there is a resistance and support at the 35 and that came into existence November of "05".... it will break through.

With this kind of volatility in the trend. I am sure.