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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #2,401
  • Aug 10, 2007 4:23pm Aug 10, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Everyone have a very blessed week-end and we will see you soon.

Take care and God bless everyone.
You do the same Dove
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,402
  • Aug 10, 2007 9:52pm Aug 10, 2007 9:52pm
How do you calculate the weekly pivots? I understand how to find the High and the Low, but what candle represents the Open and which is the Closed for the week?
  • #2,403
  • Aug 11, 2007 5:19am Aug 11, 2007 5:19am
Exactly Dove,the same question - what data do you use to calculate Central Weekly Pivot ?

I understand how to calculate the other weekly pivots but I was wondering about this one - for DAILY CENTRAL it is previous day open candle at 17 ET,but for weekly ?

By the way I also wish you nice weekend.
  • #2,404
  • Aug 11, 2007 1:17pm Aug 11, 2007 1:17pm
Same way as daily basically, except the unit is a week.Take the open from sunday, the close from friday, and the high and low of the week. I guess the central would be the open of the new week. Same thing goes for monthly pivots.
  • #2,405
  • Aug 11, 2007 2:41pm Aug 11, 2007 2:41pm
Hey everybody,
Can any one confirm these pivots for the next trading session?

R3 - 120.52
R2 - 119.62
R1 - 118.99
Pivot - 118.09
S1 - 117.46
S2 - 116.57
S3 - 115.93

Not including the Central Pivot of course that will have to wait for the session open..

And these for the weekly:
R3 - 122.39
R2 - 121.10
R1 - 119.73
Pivot - 118.44
S1 - 117.07
S2 - 115.78
S3 - 114.41
  • #2,406
  • Aug 11, 2007 2:48pm Aug 11, 2007 2:48pm
The easiest way to calculate the weekly pivots is to bring up a weekly chart….. You would use the open, the high and the low on the last week candle. You then will wait for the open on Sunday’s candle for the close and the central pivot. And the reason for using Sunday’s candle is because of the flotation of movement between Friday’s closing and Sunday’s open….. I will place the pivots on the weekly only and write them down a piece of paper to keep track…..

I also use my moving averages and a Bollinger Band set at 15 to keep track of the trend for the weeks ahead.… I also have a Slow_K set at default and in this case, it is getting close of being oversold.

I hope this has helped you….
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,407
  • Aug 11, 2007 2:51pm Aug 11, 2007 2:51pm
Quoting MaBhoCk
Hey everybody,
Can any one confirm these pivots for the next trading session?

R3 - 120.52
R2 - 119.62
R1 - 118.99
Pivot - 118.09
S1 - 117.46
S2 - 116.57
S3 - 115.93

Not including the Central Pivot of course that will have to wait for the session open..

And these for the weekly:
R3 - 122.39
R2 - 121.10
R1 - 119.73
Pivot - 118.44
S1 - 117.07
S2 - 115.78
S3 - 114.41
No - I'm sorry, but you have to wait on Sundays movement to calculate for the movement up to 17:00 because everything on pivots are 24 hours from 17:00 - 17:00 including the closing of the market.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,408
  • Aug 11, 2007 2:56pm Aug 11, 2007 2:56pm
Hey Dove,

thanks for clearing things up !

regards
  • #2,409
  • Edited 3:32pm Aug 11, 2007 3:16pm | Edited 3:32pm
I will try to explain this as easy as possible…… These pivots that are calculated are done so between the hours of 17:00 – 17:00….

Some brokers have different hours than others and the time table will be upset because of the opening and closing of the broker. The best way to beat this will be on determining the flux of candles between the hours your broker opens and closes.

Let’s take my broker…. On Friday they shut down at 4:30 pm ET which means there are still 30 minutes left for calculations of the pivots…... They re-open Sunday at 4:00 pm ET…. Now, there is a new candle that popped up when he open at 4:00 pm…..

Now, I have Fridays open, the high, and the low. What I am waiting on now is the close of Sunday’s new candle that open at 4:00 pm and the new one that will open at 5:00 pm (17:00 ET). I will use the closing of the candle that open at 4:00 pm for the closing and open of the 5:00 pm for the central pivot for the next 24 hours.

Let say the candle that open at 4:00 pm moves either higher or lower than Fridays candle then I will use that high or low for calculations and also for the closing of Fridays candle…..

I hope this explains how to calculate on a daily basis… This is also the technique if your broker does not have a 17:00 candle on the daily then use the 1 hour 17:00 candle to calculate.

What I mean by Fridays closing is if the closing is higher or lower than Fridays (high or low) that will also calculate for the closing on Sunday's candle at 17:00.....
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,410
  • Aug 12, 2007 5:17am Aug 12, 2007 5:17am
Quoting dove_alliance
I will try to explain this as easy as possible…… These pivots that are calculated are done so between the hours of 17:00 – 17:00….

Some brokers have different hours than others and the time table will be upset because of the opening and closing of the broker. The best way to beat this will be on determining the flux of candles between the hours your broker opens and closes.

Let’s take my broker…. On Friday they shut down at 4:30 pm ET which means there are still 30 minutes left for calculations of the pivots…... They re-open Sunday at 4:00 pm ET…. Now, there is a new candle that popped up when he open at 4:00 pm…..

Now, I have Fridays open, the high, and the low. What I am waiting on now is the close of Sunday’s new candle that open at 4:00 pm and the new one that will open at 5:00 pm (17:00 ET). I will use the closing of the candle that open at 4:00 pm for the closing and open of the 5:00 pm for the central pivot for the next 24 hours.

Let say the candle that open at 4:00 pm moves either higher or lower than Fridays candle then I will use that high or low for calculations and also for the closing of Fridays candle…..

I hope this explains how to calculate on a daily basis… This is also the technique if your broker does not have a 17:00 candle on the daily then use the 1 hour 17:00 candle to calculate.

What I mean by Fridays closing is if the closing is higher or lower than Fridays (high or low) that will also calculate for the closing on Sunday's candle at 17:00.....
Now I understand... Thank you.
  • #2,411
  • Aug 12, 2007 9:55am Aug 12, 2007 9:55am
Hey guys,

I was analyzing USDJPY chart and I noticed a couple of things.Look,I remember when Dove wrote on late July that "price is heading to 200 MA".As I understand he was thinking about 200 MA on Daily chart.We all know that price broke this zone so I switched to Weekly timeframe and this is what got my attention :

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/7070/usdjpyvq4.gif



Of course it is only my point of view but as you can see we closed below 23.6 fib level so I assume that we are moving towards next 38.2 fib level - which is located at 115.50.
I used January 2005 bottom and June 2007 top for calculations.Moreover,above mentioned 200 EMA is close to this level (more-less 115.80).

Besides,the trendline which has it beginning on January 2005 is also showing area where can be located Strong Support (of course this one can be subjective because some may say that we already have bounced of this trendline and I agree that if you draw you trendline from January close to previous week close we will notice bounce .... but lets assume that we take lows as our trendline points



http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/5243/usdjpy2sh5.gif

121.4 expansion of last down move is also located at this area,interesting,isn't it ?

Ok,so here are my thoughts.I wanted to share them with you and I would be very glad to hear your comments.Of course it is rather long-term view because we are talking about Weekly Charts ... but who knows

Regards
  • #2,412
  • Aug 12, 2007 11:31am Aug 12, 2007 11:31am
From my point of view usd/jpy ispresently oversold in weekly charts but futher downside will be held by 116.70 support any move down there i am buying for a move towards 125.xx this week should tell whether it goes futher down or move upwards..
  • #2,413
  • Aug 12, 2007 11:44am Aug 12, 2007 11:44am
polishtrader, your charts are messing up the window. they are too big!
  • #2,414
  • Aug 12, 2007 1:17pm Aug 12, 2007 1:17pm
sorry kreeper_6,next time I will resize them
  • #2,415
  • Aug 12, 2007 1:29pm Aug 12, 2007 1:29pm
Excellent analysis PolishTrader , I have the same view
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,416
  • Aug 12, 2007 3:09pm Aug 12, 2007 3:09pm
thanks karmostaji It will be nice to recieve some confirmation also from weekly pivots (I mean the probability of moving towards that area)
  • #2,417
  • Aug 12, 2007 3:18pm Aug 12, 2007 3:18pm
Polish

I see you. I have been watching the chart. To add to 115.50 that's the point at which the 10 yr downtrendline, meets the uptrend and was broken this year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,418
  • Aug 12, 2007 3:33pm Aug 12, 2007 3:33pm
Hey HeavensGate,

That is good remark ! I haven't seen it before but now I'm checking it on my monthly chart and you are right ! It is becoming more and more interesting
  • #2,419
  • Aug 12, 2007 3:45pm Aug 12, 2007 3:45pm
One of the most dangerous thing that a trader can do is focus on anything that is not of the moment.... You start looking at 10 year trends or even weekly trends and then all these variables are set in your mind which can, and will, deviate you from the moment...... 24 hours is the max that any trader should be concern with... The daily and weekly trend charts are good just as long as you use them for the weekly trend...... And trend lines on these charts are minimal for a true knowledge of what is really happening for the moment.... In other words, long distance will only hurt you and keep you from where you should be focus on.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,420
  • Aug 12, 2007 3:49pm Aug 12, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting dove_alliance
One of the most dangerous thing that a trader can do is focus on anything that is not of the moment.... You start looking at 10 year trends or even weekly trends and then all these variables are set in your mind which can, and will, deviate you from the moment...... 24 hours is the max that any trader should be concern with... The daily and weekly trend charts are good just as long as you use them for the weekly trend...... And trend lines on these charts are minimal for a true knowledge of what is really happening for the moment.... In other words, long distance will only hurt you and keep you from where you should be focus on.
I agree, and disagree. Long term trends can work, depending on how much liquidity you have at your disposal. If you're a day trader, then 24hrs is indeed all you need to worry about. If you're a long term spot buyer with a large account you are able to utilize any time frame in order to achieve your long term objective.

My friend who works at a major firm on Wall St, uses various time frames at his desk. Of course they were swimming in a deep pool of liquidity, at least 3 weeks ago they were, lol.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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