HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

Date: 30th July 2025.

Global Markets Mixed as US-China Trade Talks Stall, Fed Holds Rates, and Euro Retreats.

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US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Investor Sentiment
Financial markets opened the midweek session on a cautious note as the latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in Stockholm without a definitive agreement. Both countries indicated willingness to extend the current tariff truce set to expire on August 12, but no final decision has been reached.

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the discussions as “constructive,” noting that both sides agreed to continue working toward an extension. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the topic was discussed but emphasised that any extension still requires approval from President Donald Trump. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that although the dialogue was ‘fulsome,’ the Chinese may have ‘jumped the gun’ in announcing a pause. Strategic concerns such as China’s purchase of Iranian oil and export of dual-use technology to Russia were also raised.

Asian and US Markets React to Trade and Earnings Headwinds
Asian equities responded with mixed movements. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined marginally as losses in automakers like Toyota and Honda offset gains in tech stocks. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi posted solid gains, while Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Sensex advanced modestly.

On Wall Street, US stock indices edged lower as traders digested corporate earnings and growing global uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. High-profile movers included SoFi Technologies, which surged 7.4%, and UPS, which plunged 9.2% on weaker-than-expected results. Health care giant UnitedHealth Group dropped 5.8% after disappointing earnings, while Novo Nordisk shed over 21% on lowered 2025 guidance for its Wegovy weight-loss drug.

Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Inflation and Tariff Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve began its much-anticipated policy meeting with expectations firmly anchored in a decision to keep interest rates steady. Despite renewed pressure from President Trump for cuts to stimulate the economy, policymakers are expected to wait for further data on inflation and the economic impact of tariffs.

Treasury yields slipped as investors adopted a risk-off approach. A report showing a decline in US job openings added to concerns over a potential economic slowdown, though consumer confidence data remained relatively stable. Traders now await official signals from the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments.

Euro Rally Stalls After EU-US Tariff Deal
The euro, once one of the strongest-performing currencies of 2025, has started to lose momentum. After hitting a four-year high of $1.1830, it fell sharply this week following the EU's decision to impose a 15% tariff on US imports. Though less severe than President Trump’s initial threats, the new rate is a sharp increase from pre-2025 levels.

Currently trading around $1.1554, the euro is on track for its first monthly loss this year, down nearly 2% in July. Analysts note that the rally had been driven by optimism over German fiscal stimulus and weakness in the US dollar. However, with a US-EU trade agreement reducing uncertainty and strong US earnings supporting the greenback, that trend has reversed.

Bruno Schneller of Erlen Capital Management commented that the euro is facing a “reality check,” as speculative positions near record highs are now being unwound. CFTC data shows euro bullish bets have reached $18.4 billion, the highest since December 2023.



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Commodities: Copper and Oil Slide as China Stimulus Lacks Detail

Commodities markets were also under pressure. Copper prices dropped 0.2% to $9,782 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, while iron ore declined by 0.9% in Singapore. Early gains were erased after a policy update from China’s Politburo failed to provide clear fiscal or monetary stimulus plans, disappointing traders who had anticipated stronger support.

The global copper market has also been rattled by the Trump administration’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1. With few details available, investors are bracing for widespread disruptions. Chile, the largest supplier of copper to the US, has requested exemptions, but US trade officials signalled that the measures would apply globally.

Meanwhile, oil prices remained relatively flat. US crude hovered at $69.20 per barrel, while Brent crude edged up to $71.70. The broader energy market remains range-bound as traders await further developments in both monetary policy and international trade.

Economic Data and Earnings to Drive Market Direction
With the Fed expected to keep rates on hold, attention is shifting to upcoming economic reports and earnings data. The US is scheduled to release the latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, along with inflation readings that will offer deeper insight into the strength of the recovery. In Europe, economic growth figures will help shape expectations for further fiscal intervention.

Investors are also awaiting any update on whether the US and China will officially extend their tariff truce, a development that could ease trade tensions and support global risk sentiment.

What Traders Should Watch This Week
As market volatility picks up, traders should monitor several key themes:

 

1. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference
2. US jobs and inflation data
3. Confirmation or collapse of the US-China tariff pause
4. More Q2 earnings reports from major US corporations
5. Reactions to the EU-US trade agreement
6. Signals of additional stimulus from China

With global macro conditions in flux and central bank policies on pause, the coming days could define the next phase of market momentum in stocks, commodities, and currencies.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 31st July 2025.

BOJ Hints at Rate Hike with Inflation Upgrade, But Trump Tariffs Delay Clear Signal.

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BOJ Moves Closer to Tightening, But Timing Still Murky

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates steady at 0.5% during its July policy meeting but raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, signalling that the era of ultra-accommodative monetary policy may be drawing to a close.

However, Governor Kazuo Ueda and the policy board refrained from giving any guidance on the timing of the next hike, citing ‘high uncertainties’ stemming from new US trade tariffs and domestic political instability.

Inflation Forecast Raised to 2.7%: What It Means
In its quarterly economic outlook, the BOJ lifted its FY2025 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.2% and nudged up its projections for 2026 and 2027. The upgrades reflect ongoing price pressures, particularly from food and commodity imports. The BOJ’s upward revision of its price outlook does make it seem like a rate hike is coming closer. But Ueda reiterated that supply-side factors are driving inflation, suggesting policymakers are reluctant to respond with rate hikes unless wage growth and demand-driven inflation strengthen further.

Tariffs Keep Policy Outlook Cautious
A major source of uncertainty is President Trump’s new wave of tariffs, including on Japanese autos and industrial goods. While Japan reached a partial agreement with the US to reduce some levies, the BOJ is waiting to see how these measures affect exports, corporate profits, and investment.

This caution was reflected in a softened tone in the BOJ’s risk assessment, shifting from ‘extremely high’ to simply ‘high’ trade-related uncertainties.

‘There have been positive developments in trade and other policies,’ the BOJ noted, but added that more data is needed to support a rate hike.

Political Backdrop: Another Obstacle
Japan’s domestic political scene is adding further complexity. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition suffered a significant setback in the recent upper house elections. Some members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are now pushing for leadership changes, which could impact fiscal policy and BOJ coordination.

Any rate move could become politically sensitive, especially if borrowing costs rise at a time when consumer inflation is already weighing on household budgets.



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Market Reaction: Yen, Bonds, and Global Spillovers
The yen initially rallied following the announcement, but lost ground as Ueda failed to provide forward guidance on rates. USDJPY remains near the psychologically important 150 level.

Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields have inched higher, with the 10-year yield approaching 1%, spilling over into global bond markets. US Treasuries also saw upward pressure after Powell’s hawkish tone, tightening financial conditions worldwide.

What’s Next? Eyes on December
While the BOJ appears to be preparing the ground for a year-end rate hike, the central bank is signalling that it will not move prematurely. The next few months will be critical as officials monitor wage growth, trade developments, and domestic demand. It is expected that the BOJ will act by December if growth holds up and the tariff impact is manageable.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st August 2025.

Bank of England Rate Cut in Focus: Sterling Slips as Fed Holds Steady.

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The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting on August 7, bringing the Bank Rate down from 4.25% to 4.00%. This decision would mark a continuation of the central bank’s cautious and gradual monetary easing cycle as the UK grapples with persistent inflation and sluggish economic growth.

Although some Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members had already called for a cut during the last meeting, the majority opted to wait, citing the need for a more measured approach. However, with inflation moderating and economic headwinds building, the conditions now appear more favourable for a rate reduction.

BoE Monetary Policy Outlook: Gradual Easing Ahead
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to reinforce the central bank’s steady approach to rate adjustments. So far in 2025, the BoE has acted every three months, a pattern likely to continue through the end of the year.

Despite projections that headline inflation will rise to 3.7% by September, mainly due to energy base effects and regulated prices, the Bank anticipates that consumer price inflation (CPI) will fall back toward the 2% target in the medium term. A sluggish UK growth backdrop supports further easing, with an additional cut forecast in November 2025, and a terminal rate of 3.50% expected by February 2026.

Still, uncertainties remain. The inflation and rate path will depend heavily on global economic developments, fiscal policy, and evolving UK–US trade dynamics.

UK–US Trade Deal and Updated Growth Projections
The upcoming BoE meeting will also include an updated Monetary Policy Report and revised economic forecasts. Investors will watch closely for how the UK’s new trade agreement with the United States affects the central bank’s growth outlook.

While the impact of the 10% baseline tariffs may be limited in isolation, broader effects on global supply chains could influence inflation. Some economists argue that tariffs may reduce inflation if exporters cut prices to redirect goods away from the US, but significant supply chain disruptions could have the opposite effect.

UK PMI Weakness Reflects Fragile Economic Sentiment
Recent economic data points to weak momentum in the UK economy. The S&P Global flash PMI for July showed a drop in the Composite Output Index to 51.0, a two-month low. Although the manufacturing sector improved slightly, it remained in contraction territory, while the services PMI fell from 52.8 in June to 51.2, still in expansion, but signalling a slowdown.

This decline in business activity suggests that growth is likely to remain soft, with businesses citing reduced new work and persistent caution following the fiscal tightening introduced in April.

Labour Market and Wage Trends in the Spotlight
The UK labour market remains a key variable for the BoE. Survey data from the services sector highlighted strong wage inflation, with businesses attempting to pass on the cost of increased National Insurance contributions and the higher minimum wage. These cost pressures have kept consumer prices elevated, even as demand cools.

At the same time, businesses have started to shed staff, indicating that labour market slack may be building faster than previously anticipated. If this trend continues, it could help curb wage growth, offering additional disinflationary pressure.

Household Savings Surge Underscores Consumer Caution
Another factor reinforcing the case for further easing is the increase in household savings. Data from June revealed a sharp rise in deposits with banks and building societies, which climbed by £7.8 billion, compared to £4.3 billion in May, and significantly above the six-month average.

Much of this increase was allocated to Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs), possibly due to concerns about potential changes in government policy on deposit allowances. The shift toward saving rather than spending suggests that consumers remain cautious, posing a risk to domestic demand and justifying further monetary stimulus.

BoE Quantitative Tightening Policy Under Scrutiny
In addition to interest rate decisions, the BoE's approach to quantitative tightening (QT) remains in focus. Unlike its global peers, the BoE has been actively selling assets in the open market, contributing to a rise in long-term yields and increasing government borrowing costs.

While some policymakers have pushed for an end to active QT, most analysts expect the BoE to reduce the annual pace of asset sales from £100 billion to £75 billion in 2026. There are signs of tightening liquidity as well, with usage of the BoE’s long-term repo facility nearing record highs. The Bank’s new framework, which allows markets to bid for reserves, has created more uncertainty around reserve scarcity as the balance sheet contracts.

Although no major announcement is expected on QT during the August meeting, Governor Bailey may offer early signals ahead of the final decision in September.



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GBPUSD Slips Amid Fed Hold and Strong US Data
The British Pound weakened against the US Dollar on Thursday, as GBPUSD fell to 1.3214, down from an intraday high of 1.3281. This move followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with two dissenters favouring a cut. Despite speculation surrounding future easing, fueled in part by former President Trump’s comments, Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided no clear forward guidance, stating that decisions will be taken meeting-by-meeting.

The US Dollar gained further support from strong economic data. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 218,000, lower than the 224,000 estimate, confirming continued strength in the labour market. Inflation data also surprised to the upside, with Core PCE rising to 2.8% YoY in June and Headline PCE climbing to 2.6%, both above forecasts.

This divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England has placed additional downward pressure on GBPUSD. While markets see a 65% chance of the Fed holding steady in September, expectations for a BoE cut next week stand at 80%. The growing gap in policy stance has tilted the currency pair into bearish territory.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Bearish Bias Builds
Technically, GBPUSD has broken below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3334, breaching key psychological support at 1.3300. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also shifted into bearish territory, reinforcing downside momentum.

If the pair falls decisively below 1.3200, the next support level is found at 1.3100, with the 200-day SMA at 1.2977 offering further downside targets. On the upside, only a close above 1.3250 would signal a potential recovery toward the 1.3300 zone.

Conclusion: All Eyes on August 7 BoE Meeting
As the Bank of England prepares to cut rates, the combination of softening growth, persistent cost pressures, and cautious consumers strengthens the case for further easing. At the same time, the Fed’s steady stance, backed by robust US data, continues to drive GBPUSD lower as monetary policy divergence takes centre stage.

Markets will closely monitor the BoE’s tone, the updated forecasts, and any hints regarding quantitative tightening adjustments. With volatility likely to remain high, traders should remain alert to shifts in inflation expectations, labour market dynamics, and central bank messaging.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th August 2025.

Markets Rebound as Earnings Roll In, Dollar Stabilises Amid Rate Cut Bets and Tariff Concerns.

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US stock futures edged higher on Tuesday, signalling a more stable open on Wall Street following last week’s turbulence and ahead of a crucial wave of corporate earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.3%.

The recovery momentum continued from Monday, when stocks bounced back sharply after a volatile Friday. The rally came despite lingering concerns over a weak US jobs report, fresh tariff threats from the White House, signs of persistent inflation, and the surprise dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Adding to the uncertainty, President Trump warned of potential tariff hikes on India, further unsettling global trade dynamics.

Investors now turn their attention to a heavy earnings calendar, with AMD and Rivian reporting Tuesday, followed by McDonald's, Disney, Uber, Snap, Palantir, and others later this week. Palantir shares surged in after-hours trading after the company topped earnings expectations and reported over $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time.

Despite the uncertainty, second-quarter earnings have largely surprised to the upside. According to FactSet, with 66% of S&P 500 companies having reported, average earnings per share are now expected to rise 10.3%, more than double the initial 5% forecast. Companies benefited from lowered expectations amid concerns about tariffs, high valuations, and economic headwinds.

Several notable companies contributed to the rebound. Idexx Laboratories spiked 27.5% on better-than-expected results, while Tyson Foods rose 2.4% after beating profit forecasts. Wayfair gained 12.7% on accelerating growth, and Tesla added 2.2% following the approval of a massive restricted stock award to CEO Elon Musk, calming fears he might exit the company. On the downside, Berkshire Hathaway fell nearly 3% after reporting lower profits tied in part to a loss in its Kraft Heinz investment.

Asian Markets Track US Gains; Oil and Commodities Stable

Asian equities joined the global rally, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.6%, South Korea’s Kospi gaining 1.4%, and Shanghai’s Composite Index rising 0.5%. The Hang Seng added 0.3%, while Australia’s ASX 200 and Thailand’s SET both climbed 1.1%. India’s Sensex, however, dropped 0.5% as tensions with the US over Russian oil imports escalated.

Dollar Finds Stability as Fed Cut Expectations Climb

Meanwhile, the US dollar found its footing, rising 0.2% after last week’s sharp selloff triggered by soft jobs data and political upheaval. Traders are now weighing whether the increased likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts could help support risk appetite and offset the drag from new tariffs.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 92.1% chance the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting, up from 63% a week ago. Goldman Sachs expects three straight 25-basis-point cuts starting next month, and sees a 50-basis-point move as possible if unemployment rises further. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed the growing urgency, stating, ‘I was willing to wait another cycle, but I can't wait forever.’

Despite July marking the dollar’s first monthly gain this year, analysts remain cautious. Citi economists noted that USD/Asia is sitting in a ‘fragile equilibrium’ amid uncertainty about US economic resilience. Conversations with clients, they said, reveal many are questioning whether the narrative of US exceptionalism still holds true.

The dollar index hovered around 98.816, recovering from a one-week low. The euro traded at $1.1559, down 0.12%, while sterling stood at $1.328. The yen was flat at 147.10 after the Bank of Japan signalled a potential return to rate hikes if global trade tensions ease. The Swiss franc extended losses, down 0.2% to 0.8092, as Switzerland seeks to negotiate a deal to avoid a 39% US tariff that could severely hit its export-heavy economy.

A quick adjustment in supply chains is widely expected, but it might take 6 to 12 months to know who wins and who loses. Also, the ongoing weakness for the greenback could continue.

Other currencies saw minor moves:

 

1. The Australian dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6466
2. The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.1% to $0.5893

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th August 2025.

USDJPY Analysis: Yen Weakens Amid US Tariff Pressure and BOJ Policy Signals.

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The USDJPY currency pair has been in the spotlight after the Japanese Yen weakened against the US Dollar. This movement was triggered by several key factors that are currently attracting market attention. On Friday, USDJPY strengthened by +0.39%, indicating selling pressure on the Yen. The main concerns driving this weakening are the potential impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy, as well as less than satisfactory domestic economic data.

Factors Driving Yen Weakening
Weaker Japanese Economic Data - Japanese household spending data for June, which only rose +1.3% (y/y), far below market expectations of +2.7%, sent a dovish signal. This figure suggests that Japanese consumers are holding back, likely due to US tariff pressure and rising inflation. This situation reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates soon.

Rising US Bond Yields - Higher US government bond yields on Friday made the US dollar more attractive to investors. This increase negatively impacted the yen, known as a safe-haven currency.

Hawkish Sentiment from BOJ Meeting: Hope Amid Challenges
Nevertheless, there are several signals that could potentially be positive catalysts for the yen in the long term.

Slightly Hawkish BOJ Meeting Minutes - The minutes of the July 30-31 BOJ meeting showed differences of opinion among board members. Some suggested gradual interest rate hikes to anticipate future inflationary pressures. One member even hinted at the possibility of a rate hike as early as late 2025, depending on the impact of US tariffs.

Positive Signals from Economic Surveys - The EcoWatchers Japan Outlook Survey rose to 47.3 in July, reaching a six-month high. This reading was stronger than expected, indicating optimism among economic observers. This positive signal could be a bullish boost for the Yen.

USDJPY Technical Analysis: Towards Key Levels
Technically, the USDJPY is in a corrective phase. The significant rise from the 2021 low (102.58) towards the 2024 high (161.94) is seen as the main trend.

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USDJPY

Key Upside Level: If USDJPY manages to break through minor resistance at 148.07, the market will likely retest the high of 150.91, or the 61.8%FR level. A rise above this level would open the opportunity for a continuation of the bullish trend to higher levels.

Key Downside Level: On the other hand, key support is at 145.84. A breach of this level could signal a short-term bearish reversal, with the next support target at 142.66.

For next week, the Yen's movement will likely be influenced by external data given the relatively quiet Japanese economic calendar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th August 2025.

Investors Flock to Riskier Assets After Soft US Inflation Data.

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US Dollar Retreats as Markets Price in Fed Rate Cuts
Global investors have moved into higher-risk assets after US inflation data came in softer than expected, easing stagflation fears and pushing the US dollar (USDindex) lower. The USDIndex dropped reflecting expectations of a near-certain 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September. Some traders are even speculating on a larger reduction as markets reassess monetary policy.



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The USDIndex has fallen 0.4% so far today to 97.72, marking its second consecutive day of declines after headline CPI data eased concerns about persistent inflation. Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next month, with some traders even speculating on a larger, 50-basis-point move. The drop in yields and dovish shift in rate expectations have weighed on the greenback, prompting broad gains in other major currencies: EURUSD has risen to 1.1700, GBPUSD is trading at 1.3570, and USDJPY has eased to 147.41. Oil prices corrected as markets focus on the supply outlook, and the front end WTI contract is down -0.8% at USD 62.66 per barrel. Gold benefited from the decline in rates and is trading at $3362.70 per ounce - a gain of 0.4%.

The dollar’s retreat was further reinforced by Tuesday’s broad market optimism. Lower inflation reduced stagflation fears, supporting a shift into riskier assets — from equities to cryptocurrencies — while haven flows into the dollar and gold moderated.



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Equities Soar on Inflation Optimism and Strong Earnings
US equity markets are riding a wave of optimism. The S&P 500 has hit fresh record highs, buoyed by resilient corporate earnings and the prospect of looser monetary policy. The index is up almost 30% since April’s trade shock sell-off and 12% since Trump’s election in November. Small-cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000, are on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains, showing a broad-based recovery beyond large-cap tech.

Tech stocks are leading the charge. The “Magnificent Seven,” including Nvidia and Microsoft, have climbed nearly 50% since April, reversing earlier losses and benefiting from renewed interest in artificial intelligence. Megacap tech alone contributed roughly 90% of S&P 500 profit growth in Q2, according to Deutsche Bank strategists.



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Volatility indicators underscore market confidence. The VIX is at its lowest since December, while bond market volatility, measured by the MOVE Index, is at levels not seen since 2022. FX implied volatility is also at a one-year low, highlighting strong investor appetite for risk.

Commodities and Cryptocurrencies Gain Support
The risk-on sentiment has extended to commodities and alternative assets. Gold gained 0.6% to $1,366 per ounce, supported by weaker US dollar and declining bond yields. Silver rose 1.8%, and oil prices corrected slightly after the US API reported higher crude inventories, signaling that the summer demand peak may be fading. Cryptocurrencies have also rebounded, with Ether up 55% over the past month and meme stocks regaining popularity.

Fed Policy and Market Outlook
While markets lean heavily toward near-term easing, the Federal Reserve remains divided. Fed Schmid, a voting member, described policy as “appropriately calibrated” but remains vigilant for signs of weakening demand. Futures markets are pricing in additional rate cuts, while traders await the Jackson Hole symposium for further guidance on monetary policy. Still, futures markets are discounting -23 bps for September, -60 bps by December, and -127 bps in cuts by end-2026.

Political pressure is also intensifying. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to push for immediate rate cuts and criticized Fed Chair Powell, adding a political dimension to market uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that the Fed should remain open to a larger cut next month.

Conclusion
The combination of softer US inflation data, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and resilient earnings has fueled a wave of optimism in global markets. Traders are rotating into equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while the US dollar remains under pressure. While risks from geopolitical tensions and rising yields persist, investor confidence remains high, setting the tone for continued market rallies in the near term. For now the confidence that soft inflation and resilient growth will keep risk appetite alive, at least until the September decision forces the next big rethink.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th August 2025.

Investors Flock to Riskier Assets After Soft US Inflation Data.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...f2c792afb14503
Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday, taking a pause after several sessions of strong gains driven by expectations of lower US interest rates. US stock futures also edged slightly lower, while Bitcoin surged over 3% to a new all-time high above $123,000, according to CoinDesk.

Asian Markets Pause After Rally
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.4% to 42,657.94, as investors took profits following its record-breaking run. The yen strengthened after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg that Japan was “behind the curve” in raising interest rates, prompting speculation the Bank of Japan may be forced to act sooner. The dollar slipped to 146.55 yen from 147.39 yen, while the euro eased marginally to $1.1703.

Across the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipped less than 0.1% to 25,597.85, while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% to 3,690.88. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.3%, Taiwan’s TAIEX dropped 0.4%, and India’s Sensex inched up 0.1%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5% to 8,871.80. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management summed it up with a colorful metaphor: “Asian markets opened today like a party that ran out of champagne before midnight, the music still playing, but the dance floor thinning out.”

Dollar Weakens on Rate Cut Bets
The US dollar lingered at multi-week lows against major peers as traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates next month. The greenback fell the most against the yen after Bessent suggested the Bank of Japan may need to raise rates again soon, while the Fed should move aggressively in the opposite direction.

The dollar dropped as much as 0.7% to 146.35 yen, its weakest since July 24. Sterling reached its highest level since late July at $1.3590, while the euro traded at $1.1703, just below Wednesday’s peak. Traders now see a Fed rate cut on September 17 as a near certainty, with some even pricing in a 50-basis-point move.

Analysts say the shift in sentiment comes as signs of a cooling US labor market meet political pressure for policy easing. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates sooner, while Bessent openly called for “a series of rate cuts” beginning with a half-point move.



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Australia’s Labour Market Surprises
Australia’s job market strengthened in July, with employment rising by 24,500 in line with forecasts, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% from a 3½-year high of 4.3%. Full-time positions surged by 60,500, driven largely by record female participation.

The stronger data lifted the Australian dollar to as high as $0.65685 before trimming gains. With wage growth steady at 3.4%, well below 2023 peaks, inflationary pressure from pay remains limited. This reduces the urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates again in September, although markets still expect a 25 bps reduction in November if inflation cools further.

Wall Street Extends Record Run
US equities continued their rally on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a September rate cut. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to a record 6,466.58, the Dow Jones jumped 1% to 44,922.27, and the Nasdaq added 0.1% to an all-time high of 21,713.14. Falling Treasury yields supported rate-sensitive sectors, with homebuilders PulteGroup and Lennar each gaining more than 5%.

In a major market debut, cryptocurrency exchange Bullish surged 84% on its first trading day after a $10 billion IPO, closing at $68 a share. Still, some analysts warn that valuations may be overstretched after the steep gains since April, with tariff-driven inflation risks lingering in the background.

Bitcoin Leads Risk-On Sentiment
Bitcoin climbed to $124,480.82 in the latest session before settling near $123,000, marking its first record high since mid-July. The rally has been fueled by expectations of Fed easing, a weaker dollar, increased institutional inflows, and a friendlier regulatory climate under Trump, who recently signed an executive order allowing crypto assets in 401(k) retirement accounts.

Ether also gained, trading near its highest since November 2021. Year-to-date, ether is up 42%, outpacing bitcoin’s 32% advance. Analysts say a sustained break above $125,000 could open the door for a move toward $150,000.



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Looking Ahead
Markets are awaiting US wholesale inflation figures for July, expected to rise slightly to 2.4% from 2.3% in June. In Europe, traders will monitor the eurozone’s flash Q2 GDP and the UK’s preliminary Q2 GDP. Attention will also turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at a central bank symposium in Wyoming, where investors will be looking for clues on the September policy decision.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th August 2025.

Producer Inflation Hits 2-Year High, Fed Still Seen Cutting.


Producer Inflation Hits 2-Year High, Fed Still Seen Cutting

The US Producer Price Inflation rises to its highest level since April 2022 triggering a sudden decline in stocks. Consumer inflation previously came in lower than expected. Economists still expect a rate cut in September 2025, so investors re-entered at the lower price. Due to this the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 are all trading higher. A big factor of the day's fundamental analysis will be the Russia-US talks in Alaska.



NASDAQ Regains Losses But Trails Behind
The NASDAQ has been the best performing US index of 2025 and the previous years. However, since the Producer Price Index, the NASDAQ is struggling. The NASDAQ is still trading higher than the decline triggered by yesterday’s PPI but weaker than the SNP500 and Dow Jones.



Prior to the PPI announcement the NASDAQ’s performance in 2025 was trading 5% higher than the SNP500 and 10% higher than the Dow Jones. The NASDAQ is also exposed to markets outside of the technology sector. As a result, investors are opting to invest in the SNP500 and Dow Jones which are known to be less risky and have a lower possibility of being overbought.



Nonetheless, all indices are being positively influenced by the Federal Reserve’s potential move to cut interest rates and today’s meeting between President Trump and President Putin. If the meeting bears fruit, the market sentiment is likely to continue rising. Currently, on Friday 15th, 44% of the most influential stocks are increasing in value, which is relatively low. However, Amazon, Microsoft and NVIDIA are trading higher, supporting the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500.



Dow Jones and SNP500 Outperform The NASDAQ
The Dow Jones is trading 0.76% higher and the SNP500 0.24%. The Dow Jones is performing particularly well as investors believe the index may be trading below its intrinsic value and due to its exposure to defensive stocks. The USA30 is now trading at an all-time high and higher than the resistance levels which can be seen from earlier in the year and 2024.



However, the price will largely depend on the outcome of today’s meeting between President Putin and President Trump as well as the follow up meeting with Ukraine’s leader Zelensky. In addition to this, the release of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report will also be vital to all US indices.



Lastly, Warren Buffet is known to have recently purchased stocks within the Dow Jones which have declined in 2025. Mr Buffet is known to purchase stocks which are trading below their true value.



Dow Jones 30-Minutes Chart
Dow Jones 30-Minutes Chart

The US, Federal Reserve And Inflation
Weekly labor market data showed Initial Jobless Claims at 224,000, slightly below forecasts and the prior reading, while Continuing Claims fell to 1.953 million. Despite the weekly improvement, the broader labor market remains under pressure according to economists. However, this is not necessarily being shown in the actual data. As of yet, the NFP reading is not triggering any alarm bells, but is known as a lagging indicator.



July wholesale inflation surged, with PPI up 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, far above estimates. Core PPI matched the same gains. The data signal rising inflation risks and lessen chances of near-term Fed easing, though Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee still sees scope for policy softening this fall. Mr Goolsbee told journalists, the risks to employment is a particular concern for him.

Key Takeaway Points:
US Producer Price Inflation hits highest since April 2022, triggering a sudden stock market drop.
NASDAQ underperforms SNP500 and Dow after PPI data despite strong 2025 gains.
Dow Jones reaches all-time high on defensive stock exposure and perceived undervaluation.
Rising PPI reduces odds of near-term Fed easing despite some officials still favoring policy softening.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th August 2025.

Week Ahead: Smoke Signals from Jackson Hol.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ncies_1200x628
It is Jackson Hole time again, with the central banker symposium taking place from August 21–23, 2025. The theme, "Labour Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," is highly relevant as policymakers face shifting global dynamics in the age of Trump tariffs. Investors will be watching closely for Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which could provide hints on whether the Federal Reserve is leaning toward a September rate cut. The July U.S. jobs report showed a surprise weakening in employment, fueling speculation about easier policy. At the same time, a hot PPI reading raised concerns that tariff-driven inflationary pressures may be starting to filter into the economy. We do not expect Powell to provide clear signals, but his tone will be crucial. Globally, most core central banks are cautiously easing policy to offset growth risks, though persistent inflation continues to complicate decisions.

North America: Powell in the Spotlight
The Jackson Hole symposium will dominate market sentiment this week, with Powell facing the delicate task of balancing labour market weakness with emerging inflation risks. At his July press conference, Powell highlighted inflation concerns over unemployment. However, the July payrolls report shocked markets with a sharp slowdown in hiring, raising the question of whether this is a temporary setback or the start of a more troubling trend. With producer price inflation rising, tariffs appear to be filtering into price measures, complicating the Fed’s mandate. Powell is likely to adopt a cautious stance, warning of both employment risks and inflation risks, while avoiding any suggestion of political pressure from the White House. His “smoke signals” may be deliberately vague, stressing the importance of incoming data before any firm decisions are made.

While Jackson Hole will overshadow the US economic calendar, a series of housing reports will provide additional insights. Housing starts and building permits for July are expected to show further weakness, hovering near multi-year lows. Existing home sales are projected to edge higher but remain well below last December’s pace, while the median sales price will likely post a seasonal decline from June’s record level. The leading economic index is expected to remain at its nine-year low, underscoring broader economic fragility. Alongside Powell, a number of Fed officials will also be speaking this week, including Governor Bowman, Governor Waller, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, while the release of the FOMC minutes will provide additional context on the central bank’s current thinking.

In Canada, attention turns to inflation and retail sales after the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 2.75% in July. While the weak July jobs report raised speculation of a rate cut in September, stronger-than-expected retail sales and persistently firm core inflation suggest Governor Macklem may hesitate to ease further. Inflation has been running above target, with median and trim rates holding near 3%, adding weight to the case for holding policy steady at the September 17 decision.

Europe: PMIs and Inflation in Focus
In the Eurozone, geopolitics and trade continue to dominate sentiment. Preliminary PMI reports are due and are expected to confirm a sluggish growth outlook. Manufacturing activity is likely to slip further into contraction territory, while the services sector may see only a marginal slowdown. The composite PMI is projected to show very weak but ongoing growth. Meanwhile, the second estimate of German Q2 GDP should confirm a small contraction, reflecting weaker external demand after prior quarters were boosted by efforts to front-run tariffs.

Inflation pressures in the region appear to be moderating. Eurozone CPI is expected to remain at 2.0% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.3%. Even Bundesbank President Nagel has signaled less concern over inflation, particularly as German PPI has turned negative. Still, this does not imply additional rate cuts, as policymakers remain cautious about pushing rates below neutral.

In the United Kingdom, stronger growth has reinforced the Bank of England’s cautious stance. July CPI is expected at 3.8% year-over-year, keeping inflation well above target. This reading will likely support hawkish voices within the BoE, even as growth prospects remain mixed. PMI data should show manufacturing still contracting, though with a slight improvement, while services remain steady. Retail sales growth likely slowed in July after a strong June, while public finance data may raise further concerns about the need for tax increases in the autumn budget.

Asia: Central Banks and Signs of a China Slowdown
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank is expected to resume cutting rates, trimming by 25 basis points to 3.00%. The decision follows weak jobs data, a rise in unemployment, and softer inflation expectations, all of which support further easing. By contrast, Bank Indonesia is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25% after its surprise July cut, as policymakers remain cautious about currency stability.

In China, commercial banks are set to announce loan prime rates, but no changes are expected after the PBoC held policy steady. However, liquidity injections have increased sharply this year, targeting key sectors such as technology, green development, and the digital economy. Despite these efforts, economic data continues to weaken. Industrial activity slowed to its weakest pace since November, retail sales growth cooled, and both new and existing home prices fell again. The combination of a property sector slump and the drag from tariffs has added further strain on domestic growth.

Japan will release CPI, trade data, the tertiary index, and PMI surveys. While GDP growth has strengthened in recent quarters, tariff-related headwinds are evident in weaker exports. CPI remains above 3%, keeping the Bank of Japan inclined toward gradual tightening, though action at the upcoming September policy meeting appears unlikely given global uncertainties.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th August 2025.

German Economy Between Tariffs and Investment Boost.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ee0b3375e22870
Economic Contraction in the Second Quarter
The German economy is once again showing signs of strain, with activity contracting in the second quarter of 2025. Revised production figures revealed deeper weakness than initially reported, underlining the persistent struggles of Germany’s flagship manufacturing sector. The newly signed trade agreement with the United States is expected to bring additional headwinds, especially for automakers, while Berlin’s recently announced investment boost in infrastructure and defence will take time to filter through into actual production growth. At the same time, the surge in spending across the European Union may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to rethink its monetary policy sooner than expected.

Manufacturing Sector Under Pressure
For much of the past year, Germany’s growth figures have been flattered by businesses front-running anticipated U.S. tariffs. While GDP expanded during the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, much of that momentum came from exporters rushing orders ahead of tariff deadlines. As many analysts warned, this left a demand gap that became visible in the second quarter, when the economy contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. To make matters worse, first-quarter growth was revised lower to 0.3% from the previously reported 0.4%, confirming that overall momentum in the first half of the year was weaker than thought.

The industrial sector remains the hardest hit. Preliminary data point to a sharp contraction, with production plunging 1.9% in June. Adding to the gloom, May’s figures were revised drastically lower to just 0.1% growth from an initial 1.2%. This leaves industrial activity at its weakest level since May 2020. Much of the revision came from updated reports in the automobile sector, where uncertainty over tariff regimes has clouded output and investment decisions.

Tariffs Challenge German Automakers
It is worth noting that seasonal factors, such as Easter falling later in the quarter, may have slightly distorted the numbers. However, the broader trend is clear: Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings confirm the weakness, and ongoing uncertainty over future trade relations with the U.S. has weighed heavily on sentiment. While some clarity has emerged since the deal was signed, the reality is that new tariffs will curb exports, particularly in the critical auto industry, while also disrupting supply chains that are central to German manufacturing.

German automakers, including BMW and Mercedes, had hoped for exemptions given their extensive U.S. investments. Reports even suggested that industry representatives travelled to Washington to propose a reciprocal arrangement: tariff-free imports of EU-made cars in exchange for every U.S.-produced vehicle shipped to Europe. Yet, such proposals failed to gain traction, and manufacturers are now facing the reality of a 15% tariff on U.S. imports of German goods. Behind the scenes, lobbying efforts are expected to continue, but for now, automakers must prepare for a more challenging trade environment.

Berlin’s Investment Boost in Infrastructure and Defence
Against this backdrop, Berlin’s new government has attempted to counteract the drag with an ambitious fiscal program. Having taken office in March, the administration moved swiftly to abandon strict debt limits and pledge a sweeping investment boost, with a particular focus on defence and infrastructure. These efforts build on the rearmament drive that began under the previous government in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but have now accelerated with additional funds.

The results are already visible in the orders data, although volatility remains high due to the presence of large-ticket defence and infrastructure contracts. In June, orders fell by 1.0% month-on-month, following a 0.8% decline in May. Yet, thanks to large-scale contracts, overall orders rose by 3.1% in the second quarter, offering some hope for stronger growth later this year. Stripping out these large orders, however, paints a more modest picture, with demand rising just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. This suggests that any positive impact on GDP may not be immediate.

Orders Data Show Mixed Signals
A closer look at orders data reveals the deep impact of tariffs and shifting trade relations. Orders from abroad fell by 3.0% month-on-month in June, driven by a sharp 7.8% plunge in demand from non-Eurozone countries. By contrast, orders from within the Eurozone rose 5.2%, while domestic demand increased by 2.2%. The divergence underscores Germany’s growing dependence on European and local demand to cushion against the decline in U.S.-linked trade.

Fiscal Expansion and ECB Policy Outlook
The central question now is whether government spending can compensate for the tariff shock. If fiscal stimulus is supported by structural reforms and measures to encourage private investment, it could set the stage for a recovery. However, if higher public spending is not matched by efficiency gains and red-tape reduction, Germany’s fiscal expansion risks backfiring. Bond markets are already signalling concern, with the 30-year German yield climbing to its highest level since 2011.

For the ECB, the shifting policy landscape complicates the outlook. The combination of higher German yields, broader EU defence spending, and resilient inflation pressures could force policymakers to halt the easing cycle earlier than planned. While another rate cut in December remains on the table, markets are increasingly speculating that the ECB may be compelled to raise rates again in the second half of 2025.

Germany at a Crossroads
In short, Germany finds itself at a crossroads. Tariffs and global trade shifts are undermining its traditional export model, while domestic investment is only just beginning to gain traction. Whether the government’s spending spree can offset external headwinds remains uncertain, but the stakes are high—not just for Germany, but for the entire Eurozone economy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th August 2025.

NASDAQ Slides Amid AI Profit Concerns: Will The Decline Continue?.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...nasdaq_tuTNBcp
The NASDAQ declines for a sixth consecutive day, measuring a total decline of 3.00%. The decline is largely due to the poor performance of NVIDIA, Broadcom, Palantir Technologies and AMD Stocks. Since April, the NASDAQ has enjoyed a strong run without experiencing a similar lasting decline. So what’s driving the pullback in the tech sector?

Technology Stocks Drag The NASDAQ Lower
The decline is primarily attributed to a speech by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and a report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The OpenAI CEO told journalists that the amount of demand which the technology sector is obtaining, mainly due to AI, could be a bubble. ‘When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,’ Altman said.

However, experts advise that Mr Altman was not referring to all companies investing in AI. Mr Altman’s message, economists note, highlights a growing trend. Investors are actively pouring money into companies simply because they’re tied to AI, whether startups or struggling firms, assuming that AI involvement guarantees potential. However, Altman cautions that this belief is misguided.

The report from the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) is of concern for the NASDAQ and the SNP500. The report revealed a troubling reality: 95% of companies are failing to generate returns from their generative AI investments, casting significant doubt on the technology’s profitability. Investors are concerned that the capital being invested ‘is not bearing fruit and will negatively impact the Return On Equity ratio.

Lastly, traders should note that the decline is also partially due to poor economic data from the week before. This includes extremely high Producer Inflation and a lower Retail Sales figure. Of the most influential stocks, the stocks witnessing the largest declines are Palantir Technologies (-9.35%) and AMD (-5.44%). On Tuesday, only 35% of the most influential stocks saw a price increase.

Will The NASDAQ’s Decline Continue?
When looking at technical analysis, it is understandable that indicators and price action will provide a bearish bias due to the bearish momentum. The price is trading below the Moving Averages, the day’s VWAP and is not trading at any significant support level. However, on larger timeframes, the price is not forming more than a retracement, meaning traders should keep in mind a rebound is possible.

The average size of retracements over the past 3 months is 3.56%. This also suggests that investors may still view the current downward price movement as a retracement or temporary pause.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUSA100 2-Hour Chart


Another factor which investors will be keeping a close eye on is global political tensions. Ongoing negotiations between the US, Russia, the EU, and Ukraine have given investors hope for a potential peace agreement, though its details remain unclear. Experts see a possible trilateral summit between the US, Russia, and Ukraine to address key disputes. If this becomes more likely over the upcoming days, the market’s risk sentiment can increase, boosting the NASDAQ.

Key Takeaway Point:

1. The NASDAQ fell for a sixth straight day, dropping 3%, largely due to weak performances from NVIDIA, Palantir, and AMD.
2. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and an MIT report warn that much of the AI-driven investment is not generating returns. The development is raising doubts about the tech sector's profitability.
3. High Producer Inflation and weak Retail Sales contributed to the tech sell-off, with only 35% of major stocks seeing gains.
4. Technical indicators suggest the decline may be a temporary retracement, while ongoing US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations could improve market sentiment if progress occurs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st August 2025.

Has Gold’s Bullish Trend Lost Its Steam?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=gold-featured
The price of Gold has been trading within a recurring price range between $3,240 and $3,456 throughout the summer months, leaving traders wondering. Has the commodity, which has witnessed one of the strongest trends of the past 2 years, lost its steam?
Most economists believe that Gold will continue to experience a bullish trend throughout the remaining months of 2025. However, technical analysis is not currently indicating upward price movement for the medium to long term. Instead, indications currently point to the range-bound condition continuing, meaning the average price will play a key role in analysis and traders’ targets.
Average Price of Range: $3,330.50

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngXAUUSD Daily Chart

Throughout August, the price of Gold has mainly fallen due to peace talks between Russia, the US and Ukraine keeping to a positive tone. The increased likelihood of a ceasefire would boost the market’s sentiment towards risk, pressuring the price of Gold. Economists advise that the price of Gold is likely to come under pressure in the event that the conflict comes to an end, but is not likely to fully correct the gains over the past 2-years.
Furthermore, yesterday, the US Department of Commerce broadened its sectoral tariffs, which had previously focused mainly on metals and automobiles. The new measures impose 50% duties on an additional 407 categories of imported goods, including fire extinguishers, building materials, and aluminium or steel-based chemicals. Experts caution that these tariffs could intensify inflationary pressures, as they now cover goods valued at an estimated $320 billion, up from $190 billion.
The additional cost, if put into effect, is likely to be passed on to consumers, resulting in inflation. Therefore, easing the monetary policy in the near term will become more difficult for the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve opts not to cut interest rates in September, the price of Gold may witness renewed pressure.
Currently, an interest cut remains the main likelihood; however, the possibility of a pause continues to increase. Due to the high producer inflation and new tariffs, investors are contemplating whether the Fed will indeed cut in September. Currently, the Fedwatch Tool’s possibility reading for a ‘pause’ continues to rise to 21%. This is significantly higher than last week’s reading of 7.9%. The ongoing Jackson Hole Symposium may also provide further indications of the future path of interest rates.
If a pause by the Federal Reserve continues to become a likely possibility, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict looks on track to reduce tensions. The price of Gold may break the current pattern and decline. The commodity’s main support level can be seen at $3,122.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd August 2025.

The Fed’s Cut For September is Dimming, Pressuring Stocks!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...02197e0a46347a
US stocks continue to decline as the possibility of the Federal Reserve adjusting rates in September is becoming less likely. Inflation continues to be a concern for the FOMC, while the latest economic data indicates growth for the US economy. The US Purchasing Managers’ Index is the latest economic data made public, but the US significantly beat projections. The market now turns its attention to the Jackson Hole Symposium and the Fed Chairman’s speech at 14:00 GMT.

Global Economy Obtains Boost From Latest Data
The Purchasing Managers’ Index from around the globe was generally positive, with most countries beating previous expectations. However, the US PMI data was surprisingly significantly higher than economists were expecting.

Services PMI Data - 55.4 Vs 54.2 Projections

Manufacturing PMI Data - 53.3 vs 49.7 Projections (highest in 2 years)

Positive economic data is usually observed to create a bullish trend within the stock market. However, under the current market conditions, where investors are looking for certainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move, the positive data is fueling the downward momentum. Currently, the economic data and comments from members of the Federal Open Market Committee are raising doubts over a September rate cut.

The Fed Bank of Chicago President, Austan Goolsbee, is the latest member to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium. He told journalists that inflation is lower than expected, but there is data which is a concern for the regulator. ‘The last inflation report that came in, where you saw services inflation, which is probably not driven by the tariffs, ’ significantly increased, as has producer inflation. However, most members of the FOMC are also concerned about the employment sector, which is cooling down and why investors are keen for interest rates to start falling.

The possibility of an interest rate cut in September has now fallen from 85.5% to 73.0% which means a cut is still a likely outcome. The market is likely to obtain further clarity on the matter as the Federal Reserve Chairman is due to speak at 14:00 GMT. The NASDAQ and SNP500 are likely to experience high volatility during this time.

NASDAQ Performance and Technical Analysis
The NASDAQ has not risen in value since August 12th and is currently trading 3.70% lower than its recent high. Currently, all global indices are trading lower, the VIX index edges higher, and the put/call order ratio rises to the 0.70 mark. These factors currently provide a bearish bias for the NASDAQ and point to further downward price movement.

The price will depend on the Fed speech this afternoon and NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report on the 27th. The report has a consensus Earnings Per Share forecast of $0.94 (Zacks, 14 analysts), up from $0.60 a year ago. If higher than expectations, the price of the most influential stock for the NASDAQ potentially may see significant gains in the upcoming weeks.



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NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart


The price of the NASDAQ continues to remain below the 75-bar EMA, below the day’s VWAP and the 50.00 level on the RSI. This points to a continued bearish trend for the upcoming sessions, as do the bearish crossovers on the smaller timeframes. Based on signals from price action momentum, if the price remains below 23,104.42, sell signals are likely to remain intact.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Strong US PMI data has reduced expectations of a September rate cut, with odds falling from 85.5% to 73%. The uncertainty continues to pressure stocks.
2. While inflation is easing, services and producer prices remain elevated, adding pressure on the Fed.
3. Investors await Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 14:00 GMT, which could drive volatility in the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
4. The NASDAQ is 3.7% off recent highs, trading below key technical levels, with sentiment bearish unless NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings surprise to the upside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th August 2025.

Fed Signals A September Rate Cut Still Possible!

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As the possibility of an interest rate cut was looking less likely, the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech provides clarity on the matter. Towards the end of the Jackson Hole Symposium, it is tradition that the Fed Chairman delivers the closing address =. Mr Jerome Powell took this opportunity to advise markets that there is still a possibility for a rate cut in September, despite mixed views within the FOMC.

Possibility of September Rate Cut
The EURUSD rose to its highest price since July 28th after the speech by the Federal Reserve chairman. The price of the US Dollar had been consistently increasing during the previous week as traders became more cautious about a potential rate pause. A rate pause would be a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve and would largely support the US Dollar.

According to economists, the probability of a September rate cut has now risen from 82% to 88%. In addition, economists suggest that two 0.25% rate cuts by the end of the year remain the most likely outcome. But why has the market’s perception of future rate cuts shifted since the Fed’s speech?

Federal Reserve Speech By Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell did not provide concrete signals that a September rate cut is certain. However, he clearly stated that if employment remains at risk, “a 0.25% rate cut could be warranted”. Even though Powell did not confirm a rate cut, the slightly dovish tone was enough to weaken the US Dollar and fuel a rebound in the stock market.

Powell highlighted the unusual dynamics in the labor market, noting that both worker supply and demand are cooling, which increases risks to employment. At the same time, inflation remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, driven in part by tariff-related pressures. He underscored the difficulty of balancing these competing challenges.

The July NFP Employment Change came in at only 73,000, the lowest reading since November 2024. In addition, the Unemployment Rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. If the employment change again reads below 100,000 and unemployment stays at 4.2% or higher, the chances of a rate cut will become almost certain.

The US Dollar
The best-performing currency in today’s Asian session is the US Dollar. However, traders should note that the price action reflects only a retracement following Friday’s decline. Looking at the broader trend, the US Dollar index is 0.27% lower over the past week, even with today’s slight gains.

Meanwhile, the Euro is the second-best performing currency of the past week but is showing mixed performances this morning. Germany’s Q2 GDP was revised down to –0.3% QoQ (vs. –0.1% forecast) and 0.2% YoY (vs. 0.4% expected). The decline reflects weaker US demand after pre-tariff stockpiling, raising doubts over Europe’s recovery this year and next. The Economy Ministry warned that existing support measures are insufficient, calling for new incentives to revive competitiveness and growth.

EURUSD - Technical Analysis


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngEURUSD 12-Hour Chart


The EURUSD is forming a reversed Head and Shoulders pattern on a daily chart, which provides a bullish bias over the longer term and aligns with market expectations for two rate cuts in 2025.

In addition, the price of the EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar EMA and the 100-bar EMA. The RSI is also comfortably trading above the 50.00, further supporting a bullish trend and buyers’ control. If the price of the EURUSD rises above 1.17119, bullish signals on smaller timeframes are likely to materialise again.

Key Takeaways:

1. Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole kept the door open for a possible September rate cut, but employment data and the NFP reading will be decisive.
2. Odds of a September cut rose to 88%, fueling a rebound in stocks and pressuring the Dollar.
3. Economists note that if the NFP report comes in below 100,000 again and unemployment holds at 4.2%, the likelihood of a rate cut will increase further.
4. EURUSD shows a bullish bias, trading above key EMAs with RSI strength, supported by a potential reversed Head and Shoulders pattern.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Oil Prices Climb as Russia-Ukraine Talks Stall, But Bearish Momentum Returns
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Crude oil prices rise for four consecutive days, and no further progress is made between Russia, the US and Ukraine. As time progresses without a ceasefire or peace deal, the likelihood of one diminishes, triggering a spike in Oil prices. Oil prices on Monday rose to $65.78, the highest in 20 days, but the price retraced lower during this morning’s session.

Why Are Oil Prices Rising?
Oil prices extended their gains as investors grew discouraged by the lack of progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia is the third-largest oil exporter in the world behind Saudi Arabia and the US.

Over a week has passed since the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet no details of an agreement have surfaced. Adding to supply concerns, the White House reiterated over the weekend that new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector will be imposed within two weeks if no diplomatic settlement is reached. Such measures could tighten crude supply and further support prices. President Trump told journalists that he believes Putin's dislike of Zelensky is delaying a meeting between the two.

Such a move would also significantly escalate geopolitical tensions, as Russia currently relies on oil exports to fund a large part of the economy’s budget. However, the Vice President told journalists that during the Trump-Putin talks, the Russian President was willing to make concessions. Therefore, if momentum again gains speed, the price of Crude Oil can again come under pressure.

US Economic Data
The upcoming economic data is also likely to influence the pricing of the energy market. Today, investors will evaluate the release of the US Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index. However, the main releases of the week will be Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product and Friday’s Core PCE Price Index.

The price of Crude oil is likely to come under pressure if the economic data is weaker than the current projections, while the Core PCE Price Index reads higher. This would indicate a weakening economy while pressuring the Fed not to cut interest rates. On the other hand, if the Core PCE Price Index falls and the Gross Domestic Product rises, Crude Oil products are likely to rise further.

Currently, all energy products are trading lower on Tuesday. Heating Oil is 0.42% lower, Brent Oil -0.42%, and Gasoline is 0.44% lower. All global indices are also declining, indicating a ‘risk-off’ sentiment within the market.

Crude Oil - Technical Analysis
The price of Crude Oil is trading below the day’s VWAP, indicating that sellers are currently controlling the price movement. However, on a 2-hour chart, the price remains above most Moving Averages, meaning that most traders will focus on a retracement at first. When the price falls below the 75-bar EMA on the 2-hour chart, traders will switch their view to a potential full correction.



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Crude Oil 10-Minute Chart

A retracement could see the price fall back down to $64.1,9, which would be a further 1.20% decline. The $64.19 would be key as it is in line with the 75-bar EMA and is the level where the resistance level potentially may flip to support. However, the price movement would depend on the progress between Russia and Ukraine as well as the upcoming US economic data.

If the price remains below the $65.00 level, sell signals are likely to remain intact for the short-term. If the price rises above $65.25, sell signals will start to fade until bearish momentum is regained.

Key Takeaways:

1. Crude oil hit a 20-day high at $65.78 amid stalled US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks and sanction risks.
2. Lack of progress and potential US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could tighten supply and support prices.
3. US economic data this week (GDP, Core PCE) will heavily influence oil demand outlook and Fed policy expectations.
4. Technically, oil trades below VWAP with key support at $64.19; staying under $65 keeps short-term bearish pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th August 2025.

Stocks Remain Steady Despite India Tariffs, NVIDIA Earnings in Focus.

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Some investors may argue that the most important day for the NASDAQ is here with the release of NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report. NVIDIA is due to release the company’s quarterly report after the close of the day’s US Session. NVIDIA stocks are the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ and can have a ripple effect on all tech stocks.

NVIDIA Stocks and Quarterly Earnings Report
NVIDIA stocks have risen 1% each day over the past week and are already trading 0.32% higher during this morning’s after-hours trading. The bullish price movement ahead of the report indicates that shareholders are confident in the upcoming report.

According to analysts’ projections, the company will see growth within all of its sectors. Analysts expect revenue to increase to $41.3 billion, which is a 57% increase year over year. In addition to this, the company’s Gaming Sector is also expected to have increased by 33%. In 2025 so far, NVIDIA stocks have risen 31% but the upcoming price movements will depend on whether the company can beat the current projections.

NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report is not solely important to the market because it's the world’s most valuable company. During August, the market has struggled to determine the intrinsic value of AI-related companies. The NASDAQ declined this month after a pessimistic report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and remarks by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman fueled doubts about the sector’s prolonged rally. Therefore, NVIDIA’s earnings report can either fuel these fears further or reinstate confidence in technology stocks.

NASDAQ - Tariffs a Concern For Investors, But Not Yet Triggering A Decline
The NASDAQ is being positively influenced by the upcoming NVIDIA report and has fully corrected the decline seen on Monday. However, the performance of the NASDAQ continues to remain under pressure from tariffs and Fed independence threats.

The US has raised tariffs on Indian exports to as high as 50%, twice the previous rate, in retaliation for India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil. However, traders need to note that many products are exempt from the tax. Nonetheless, in turn, New Delhi is deepening diplomatic engagement with China and Russia and advancing domestic reforms. It is also drawing on its foreign exchange reserves to steady financial markets.

Currently, global stock markets remain unchanged and are not witnessing any significant declines due to the tariffs imposed on India. The VIX index is currently trading slightly lower, which is positive for the stock market. However, the Put and Call Ratios are increasing upwards towards the 0.70 level, which indicates stocks may potentially decline again. This would depend on NVIDIA’s earnings report as well as the upcoming US data. This includes tomorrow’s US Gross Domestic Product and Friday’s Core PCE Price Index.

Analysts expect the US Gross Domestic Product to rise to 3.1% and for the Core PCE Price Index to rise 0.3%. A 0.3% increase in the index would be considered too high for the Federal Reserve and could apply some pressure on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ (USA100) - Technical Analysis
When analysing the NASDAQ’s price movement on a daily timeframe, the price does not indicate a change of trend. The bias remains towards the upside, but there are clear indications that investors are becoming cautious of the extremely high price and the asset’s intrinsic value.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNASDAQ 15-Minute Chart


On the 2-hour chart, the price is trading above the 75-bar EMA, indicating buyers are attempting to gain control. However, it would be vital to break through the resistance level, which can be seen at 23,585.70. On smaller timeframes, the price on Wednesday is so far trading within a sideways price movement, but remains above the main trendlines and Moving Averages. If the price breaks above the $23,573.30, bullish signals will strengthen. Whereas if the price falls below $23,530.00, sell signals will materialise.

Key Takeaways:

1. NVIDIA’s earnings report is pivotal as its results could set the tone for all tech stocks. NVIDIA remains the NASDAQ’s most influential stock.
2. Analysts project strong growth with a revenue of $41.3B (up 57% YoY) and notable gaming sector growth (+33%).
3. US tariffs on India and Fed independence concerns weigh on sentiment, though markets remain stable for now.
4. The NASDAQ’s bias stays bullish but faces key resistance near 23,585. A breakout or breakdown around current levels could signal the next move.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th August 2025.

SNP500 Hits New All-Time High, But Is NVIDIA Driving the Rally?

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The SNP500 quickly declined 0.69% in the minutes after NVIDIA released their Quarterly Earnings Report. However, stocks are now seeing a strong rebound, correcting back upwards and closing close to yesterday’s highs. If the SNP500 can maintain momentum and increase above yesterday’s highs, the index will be trading at its all-time high.

Currently, the NASDAQ is the best-performing US index, trading with almost a 2% higher gain. However, the SNP500 performance over the past 15 days has outperformed the NASDAQ due to concerns over the current AI trend. The SNP500’s gains on Wednesday and this morning are mainly being supported by technology stocks such as Microsoft and Broadcom. The energy sector, led by companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, is also contributing to the rise.

NVIDIA Beat Earnings Expectations But Still Declined. Here’s What You Need To Know.
When NVIDIA releases its earnings report, the market expects extreme volatility, measuring a minimum of a 5% change in the price of the stock. However, the stock only fell 3.14% after the report was made public. Therefore, traders should note that the lack of volatility indicates that investors are not necessarily disappointed in the earnings figures.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngSNP500 15-Minute Chart


NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share were $1.05, higher than the previous expectations of $1.00. The company's revenue was also $68 million higher than previous projections. Although the company exceeded previous projections, some investors may question why the stock is moving lower. The modest decline appears to be primarily driven by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Chinese market. Also, investors note that the uncertainties within the market have not provided the confidence to purchase the stock at such a high price.

Nvidia’s 2nd quarter 2026 results showed its data centre unit firmly driving the global AI boom. CFO Colette Kress projected $3–$4 trillion in AI infrastructure spending by the end of 2029. Revenue rose 56% to $30.04B, marking nine straight quarters of 50%+ growth since the AI surge in 2023, though this was the slowest pace in that period. However, the slowdown did not set off any alarm bells as NVIDIA was unable to sell certain chips to China. This is something the company is hoping will change in the upcoming quarters.

Can The SNP500 Maintain its Gains?
If NVIDIA stocks see an increased demand and investors look to take advantage of the lower price, the stock can support the SNP500. NVIDIA stocks currently hold a weight of 7.61% and are the most influential stock by more than 1%. However, will investors continue to go long on the SNP500 while certain negative conditions remain?

The latest concern for investors is the 50% tariffs which the White House has slapped on India for purchasing large amounts of Russian Oil. The US is claiming it indirectly funds Russia’s military campaign. On the other hand, India claims the US is hypocritical as it continues to purchase certain commodities from Russia. The White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro, told journalists that there is a possible 25% reduction in these tariffs if India halts imports of discounted Russian oil; however, this is not likely.

However, a positive note regarding tariffs is Mexico’s plans to increase tariffs on Chinese Goods after months of pressure from the US. Mexico is hoping for more favourable trade with the US after agreeing to do so.

According to most analysts, the SNP500 can maintain momentum only if trade tensions do not continue to escalate. It also depends on whether the Federal Reserve follows through with its plan to cut the Federal Funds rate by 0.50% by the end of the year.

Today's Live Analysis Session





Key Takeaways:

1. The SNP500 dipped after NVIDIA’s earnings but rebounded near record highs, supported by tech and energy stocks.
2. NVIDIA beat expectations on EPS and revenue, yet its stock declined due to China market uncertainty and valuation concerns.
3. Nvidia’s data centre growth drives the AI boom, with $3–$4T in projected spending by 2029, though Q2 growth slowed.
4. US tariffs on India add pressure, with SNP500 momentum hinging on easing trade tensions and a Fed rate cut.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th August 2025.

What’s Driving Gold’s Bullish Trend And Will It Hit a New High in 2025?


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=gold_featured
Gold increases in value for a third consecutive day as the market prices in lower interest rates. The Gross Domestic Product indicates that the US economy continues to grow, which, under usual circumstances, would not pressure the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates. However, the latest comments from the FOMC member reassured investors that rate cuts are coming despite the higher GDP figures.

The Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
The price of Gold is trading at its highest price since July 23rd after increasing 3.30% over the previous days. The bullish price movement is partially driven by the market’s risk appetite, which is becoming more shaky, but a large part is also due to the monetary policy. The latest comments from Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, are that he will vote for a 0.25% cut in September.

According to Christopher Waller, there continue to be signs of the US employment sector weakening, and he believes the Fed will act before the employment sector truly deteriorates. The employment sector is known to be a lagging factor and normally is one of the last points of the economy to react. Therefore, many members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe a proactive cut is necessary.

A big factor in the decision of the Federal Reserve will be next week’s employment data for August. Particularly, economists will be focusing on the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. Most members of the FOMC said their decision will depend on August’s figures. Yesterday, Christopher Waller told journalists a 25 basis point cut would suffice unless August’s employment data triggers further concerns.

Currently, Reuters survey concerns that the market expects the NFP Employment Change to read 78,000 to 80,000. The survey also confirms projections that the US Unemployment Rate will rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. The projects alone paint a worrying picture which can support the price of Gold. However, if the figures are weaker, a 50-basis-point rate cut would become a possibility, and Gold may experience significant gains.

Lastly, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit Thursday, arguing that President Donald Trump lacks the authority to remove her. The case sets up a legal battle that could test the Fed’s longstanding independence. The conflict is another reason why investors are again increasing their exposure to Gold.

The US, Russia, India And China
A concern for analysts monitoring the global political sphere is the latest summit between Russia, China and India. The main question being asked by the market is how the US will react. Will the move to strengthen ties between India, Russia and China trigger another ‘trade conflict’, applying further strain on the global supply chain and consumer demand?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently on a high-stakes tour of China, Japan, and Russia to strengthen ties. This seems to be a clear reaction to the 50% tariffs being applied to India from the US. After securing $68B in Japanese investments, the Indian Prime Minister heads to the SCO summit in Tianjin, his first China visit in seven years, to meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, signalling a shift in US–India relations.

China, India and Russia currently make up the world’s second, fifth and eleventh largest economies. The three countries make up 22% of the world’s economy. This still falls short of the US, which is the largest economy at over 26% of the global total. The summit between the 3 is resulting in a lower risk appetite, which is supporting Gold.

XAUUSD - Technical Analysis


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngXAUUSD 15-Minute Chart

The price of Gold is currently trading 0.22% lower but is not triggering any sell signals. The downward price movement is so far only forming a retracement as the commodity continues to form higher highs and lows. The price is also trading above the 50.00 level on the RSI and not far below the VWAP. Therefore, the sell bias remains weak.

On the 2-hour chart, the price remains above the trendline and above moving averages, indicating a bullish bias. However, investors wait for bullish momentum to be regained. Based on the whole retracement, the price increasing above $3,416.75 will trigger buy signals. Whereas, the current bullish breakouts indicate a buy signal at $3413.80. Many analysts believe the price of Gold could potentially move out of the current recurring price range and reach a new all-time high.

Key Takeaways:

1. Gold is climbing for a third straight day as markets expect Fed rate cuts despite strong GDP growth.
2. FOMC member Christopher Waller signalled support for a 0.25% rate cut in September, with the decision hinging on August’s jobs data.
3. Growing global tensions, especially India’s closer ties with China and Russia, are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
4. Technicals show gold remains in a bullish trend, with analysts eyeing a potential breakout to new all-time highs above $3,416.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st September 2025.

Euro Strengthens Amid Dollar Weakness, ECB Stability, and French Political Uncertainty.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...urusd_featured
The Euro is the day’s best-performing currency, while the US Dollar is currently struggling to maintain its value. Due to the momentum, the EURUSD is trading at a 9-day high after the exchange rate rose 0.33% during this morning’s Asian Session. Traders should also note that the US is currently closed for the Labour Day Bank Holiday.

EURUSD - The Euro’s Bullish Trend
The Euro continues to be 2025’s best-performing currency as investors look to mitigate risk away from the Dollar. The main alternative to the US Dollar is the Euro, which continues to be supported by the expansionary fiscal policy announced earlier in the year.

Some of the latest news impacting the Euro is coming from Germany’s inflation data and the political turmoil in France. Germany’s preliminary August inflation data showed mixed results. The consumer price index slowed to 0.1% MoM (from 0.3%) and rose to 2.2% YoY (from 2.0%), slightly above forecasts. The harmonised index also rose to 2.1% YoY, higher than expected.

While inflation ticked up, it remained close to the ECB’s 2% target, suggesting rates may stay unchanged until at least November. The data shows stability and continues to support the Euro. However, European investors are also closely monitoring the political turmoil which continues to grip France.

French Prime Minister Bayrou has announced a confidence vote scheduled for September 8th. The move was a result of the government’s inability to agree on a budget. Businesses within France are warning that political instability, which continues to reappear, including growing opposition to Bayrou’s austerity plans, can drag the country towards recession.

ECB President Christine Lagarde called a potential French government collapse ‘worrying’ for the eurozone, stressing fiscal discipline while assuring that the banking sector remains resilient. The development is not yet hurting the Euro. However, if the instability grows, economists warn that the Euro can potentially witness a different trend.

PCE Index and The US Dollar
Investors are closely watching the July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, a key indicator for the US Federal Reserve. The index eased from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM and held steady at 2.6% YoY, while the core measure rose from 2.8% to 2.9%. Overall, inflationary pressures are building amid rising trade tariffs. However, uncertainty remains over future moves, as most officials stress that decisions will depend on incoming data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, however, signalled he expects a shift to a more dovish stance as early as next month. Currently, most economists expect 2 rate cuts in 2025.

Meanwhile, Fed official Lisa Cook, dismissed by President Trump, is challenging her removal in court, arguing it was unlawful and based on clerical errors in mortgage records. Trump has asked the court to validate his actions. The tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House, as well as the expectations of interest rate cuts, are pressuring the US Dollar Index. The US Dollar Index has fallen 1.26% over the past 2 weeks and is pressuring the support level at 97.45.

EURUSD - Technical Analysis


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngEURUSD 4-Hour Chart

On most timeframes, the EURUSD is obtaining indications of a bullish trend on momentum-based indicators. However, the resistance level at 1.17310 is key and buy signals may remain weak if the level remains intact. However, the upward price movement will also largely depend on the expectations of rate cuts and the political situation in France.

Key Takeaways:

1. The Euro is the strongest currency today, with EURUSD hitting a 9-day high amid Dollar weakness and a US holiday.
   Germany’s inflation data remains near the ECB’s 2% target, supporting the Euro and signalling stable monetary policy.
2. Political instability in France, including Prime Minister Bayrou’s upcoming confidence vote, is being closely monitored. However, the development has not yet pressured the Euro.
3. US rate cut expectations and Fed tensions, including Lisa Cook’s legal challenge, are pressuring the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd September 2025.

Is Gold About To Retrace Downwards?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...58eb14231c7d01
Gold reaches a new all-time high, rising to $3,508, meaning Gold has risen in total almost 28% in 2025. If Gold holds onto its recent gains, it will be set for its second-strongest performance in the past decade. The upward price movement is being driven by market expectations of rate cuts in September. The market also believes the Federal Reserve will cut rates more frequently in 2026. However, another key concern for investors is the bond building between Russia, China and India, which may put geopolitical tensions on edge.

Gold Reaches New All-Time High

The reason for Gold’s upward trend is more clearly laid out in the ‘What’s Driving Gold’s Bullish Trend And Will It Hit a New High in 2025’ article.

Monday was a national holiday, with financial institutions closed and trading volumes light. However, the day was not shy of developments prompting Gold to witness higher demand. Investors are processing Friday’s US Court of Appeals ruling, which declared tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal. The court ruled that officials had improperly invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), noting that only Congress has the authority to apply this framework.

For this reason, most tariffs could now be removed, excluding sector-specific ones, reducing taxed imports from 69% to 16%. This is expected to ease inflation pressures and shape future Federal Reserve policy. However, an appeal remains possible until October 14th, with Trump warning on Truth Social that the decision will place unprecedented strain on the US economy.

Gold And The Upcoming NFP Report

A big factor which is also starting to test Gold is the risk of a recession and the new alliance in the east (Russia, China and India). Regarding the possibility of a recession or general economic slowdown, the US employment data will be key. Analysts again expect the NFP Employment Change to read below 100,000 for a second consecutive month. The NFP change has not read below this level for two consecutive months since 2021 due to COVID.

If the NFP figure indeed remains low and the Unemployment Rate increases to 4.3% or above, recession concerns are likely to return. As a result, Gold may continue to see higher demand for the upcoming weeks. In addition to this, weak employment data will likely trigger a rate cut in September, October and December. Currently, the possibility of 3 rate cuts in 2025 is 37.00%, but this may change if employment data deteriorates.

For this reason, whether investors will deem Gold as slightly overbought and if consequently a retracement will form, depends on this week’s employment data. The NFP data will determine how many rate cuts we are likely to witness and if the US economy is indeed at risk of a recession. However, a concern for day traders is the rise in the US Dollar Index, which may trigger a short-term decline.

In addition, the market is currently showing signs of a ‘risk-off’ appetite with all US indices declining as the European Trading Session opens.

Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis

Gold’s price is trading at the day’s open price as the asset declines as the European Session starts. The decline is currently forming a retracement, but is not indicating a new bearish trend. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA, and the wave pattern continues to support buyers, maintaining control. However, the price is below the VWAP, which points to a potential retracement.

Based on the Moving Average, a retracement could potentially decline to the range between $3,425.60 to $3,446.30. However, if the price rises above $3,493.90, the price movement will start to indicate bullish momentum.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
XAUUSD 12-Hour Chart


Key Takeaways:

 

1. Gold hit a record high of $3,508, up nearly 28% in 2025, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts.
2. US tariffs imposed by Trump were ruled illegal, easing inflation risks but raising economic uncertainty.
3. Upcoming NFP data will be crucial; weak job numbers could boost recession fears and increase Gold demand.
4. Despite short-term retracement risks, Gold’s overall trend remains bullish, supported by technical indicators.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.