USD/JPY Discussion

It's quite impressive how the price hit the S1 level and then bounced off

I should of trusted it and went long from the S1

I only made 4 pips between 117.70 and 117.66

What I've been trying to do today is understand the teachings Dove presented to us together with some trading skills I think I already have.

Essentially this is looking at the S & R levels, both those defined by the market and those derived by the price, i.e. pivots, and combining them with candlestick patterns on the 1 min chart for scalping purposes.

I have had varied success as witnessed by my previous postings, and trading off the 1 min means that much can be missed, which indeed I did.

However, from 6:30 my time, that is BST which is when I usually start trading, I have counted 17 opportunities that would have captured Dove's 10 pip moves, i.e. 7 profit. It is easy looking back but a 15 pip stop would have been more than enough to prevent any unfavourable exits.

I will try and post some charts later, I know I have said this before, to show what I am looking at, to see if we can add this to our arsenal and try and make some more pips.

G-Man

GMan,

You're a gentleman and a scholar.

I sense a bit of dissapointment and 'if only I did this' in your post moneypip.

If I may be so bold to suggest that you try and suppress feelings like this. Only ever critisize or berate yourself if you do something you shouldn't have done or don't stick to your trading plan. Taking profits too early can be a trait hard to get over, but you can do it if you try hard and practice.

G-Man

Got out from Long 118.84 at 117.63 :S

That's 121 pips to learn to trust the pivots

Good call G-MAN about the S1!

Well the move from the CP to the DP was pretty swift when it came, although the difference was only 25 pips.

Managed to take 15 from that.

Might call it a day now it's 5:30 p.m. here. Could well still be fireworks although US equities looking reasonable robust at the moment.

G-Man

You're right G-man

It blew past the daily and it looks like it's going to blow past the central

Actually after 2pm all the fireworks have started the past few weeks.

This to me looks like a retrace of the big downfall. I will be selling around 119.00 again.


But I don't know much :-D

First of all I would like to say hi to all FF members.I have been reading FF for a while but today I decided to also take part actively in this Forex community

I think that is all for introduction - I will only add that I am newbie in Forex World so be generous.

According what Dove were saying I think that we should now focus on the Central Pivot (which in my case actually is 118.15 - I know that somebody wrote 118.21) and on 5 min timeframe.If the candlestick close below it I think we might once again move towards S1.

At least that is what I understood from Dove thoughts :

Once it hits the daily pivot ......... it will then determine which way it will go. Your major play is between the daily and the central pivots. once the candles get in between these two pivot then you wait to see if it travels above the central or below.... if it travels above the central then it will have a mark of the first pivot.... may it be the daily or the R1.... visa vera for the short.


On my chart price went through Daily Pivot which in my case is 118.66 (high was at 118.73) but closed at 118.50 (by the way it was reversal candelstick pattern and I made some pips thanks to that,unfortunately I was impatient and took only 10 :/

What you think about it ?

Oh,and one more thing - I believe at 19 ET the prices closed above 118.15 (as I said,it is my Central Pivot) but didn't move to Daily.
Is it possible that the reason why it happened is fact that Tokyo wasn't opened (and it was,lets say "shakeout")

Also - when price today broke S1 why it didn't move to S2 ? As I remember Dove wrote : bounces are only between Central and Dail

I know,I know - it's not like I am blindly looking at pivots.I am asking because it ate all my profits (because I was waiting for S2 hit) and later when it broke through Central Pivot I exited at 200 EMA (I believe at 15 timeframe) because I was afraid that once again "it won't go where it should"

regards

... and what do you think about this scenario :

It was clearly symmetrical triangle but I doubt we gonna see 119 ... or maybe ?

http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/6453/usdjpy4if7.gif

We may not see 119. so we need to watch price Action to see where this is going to go. It almost touched a 61.8 retrace so it might still be heading up, but that could of been enough for it to start the next wave down.

Hello Traders and Blessings – In the last couple of days I have been watching the post on how much you traders have learned about pivots and I can see a few of you had received the big picture and I congratulate you.

Last night a few of you had picked up on the weekly pivots….. The central for this week was 118.75 and when it hit it this last evening it turned and headed for the daily central pivot 118.14 and continue to bounce between those two central pivots….. As you have seen, the central pivots have a great play in the movements of the candles….. Finally, it bounced off the daily central pivot and headed south for the 117.20 which is the bottom the new fibo for the trend up….. It turned and headed north; went through the daily central and on to the Daily pivot at the 118.68 came to a dead stop and turned again……

With scalping between the two central pivots and the movements between going south and north was over 230 pips to be made…..Not bad for a days work….. Keep up the good work and don’t worry about how far it is going up or down….. Just play the pivots and you will gather the rewards between those pivots no-matter which way it is going….

Heres a rough chart at some of the ideas I have been looking at today. I know that they don't follow Doves principles apart from looking at key market levels and how price reacts around them.

The 2 trades posted are both of a resistance line, not a pivot, and they are both potentially counter trend, but do show that 1 minute charts can have some useful patterns if combined with other elements.

The points marked 1 and 2 were both good for more than the potential scalp size of 7 pips but I think this is a good target. The risk was pretty small in both cases. They both actually show the same candle pattern, technically the dark cloud cover one bar reversal.

Don't worry about all the other gumpf on the chart such as the stochs and MACD etc. I am just playing with various elements to either help as filters or time entries or reinforce any trades.

I am actually down about 8 pips today, though up in $, as I have been taking trades here there and everywhere trying to get a good feel for things. I don't recommend it generally. Hopefully in a day or 2 some clearer rules and concepts can be detailed.

Good weekend all.

G-Man

There was one thing I notice on the traders that were scalping between the central pivots was knowing the actual turn around.... Right MA's with the correct parameters will help but mostly, a bollinger band set at 15...... Those candle will bounce between those bands..... Some thought that you might consider.

On this up and down since the Daily pivot was hit there has been a minimum of 10 pip profit for each up & down.... I just got out on my last trade for the day with 60 pips on those movements and I used a 3 minute chart with my MA's and the Bollinger Band set 15 and if you set up such a chart you will see how those candles move from one band to the other. I use the 3 minute on this type of trading only.

One of the reasons I use a Bolling Band is because when a candle drives through a band, either the the upper or lower, there will be a 10-15 pip profit retrace plus, many times a turn around and this happens when at least 1/2 of the candle has gone through it... The only time this doesn't happen is when the candles or hooked on the band for a drive in the direction it is going..... If you keep focus on your indicators and not the candles you can scalp more pips then you can imagine.... But, this takes practice so be sure of yourself and your trades. Use a demo when you are attempting these various moves until you are sure of your indicators and your entries.

It's very nice to see you back in this thread Dove. I learned a lot from you. I can tell that you are not only a good trader but also a good person in the hands of God.

God bless you!
Daniel

I thank you and God bless you also..... I won't be on consistently as in the past but I will show up now and then and help out a much as I can.

Everyone have a very blessed week-end and we will see you soon.

Take care and God bless everyone.