Attachments: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

#201
Jul 2, 2025 7:07am Jul 2, 2025 7:07am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 2nd July 2025.

Canadian Dollar Wobbles as US Tariffs, Weak Economy Hit Loonie.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...aFlag_Featured
The threat of US tariffs and Trump’s halt to trade talks weighed on the CAD, with the Canadian economy projected to contract. Steady oil prices did little to help, and the Bank of Canada’s hawkish stance was not enough to stem the decline.

On Monday, White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett announced that the United States would soon resume trade talks with Canada. The move followed Canada’s decision to suspend a digital services tax targeting US technology companies. The suspension came just hours before the tax was due to take effect, indicating Canada’s efforts to resume stalled trade talks.

The Canadian Ministry of Finance confirmed that Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump would resume trade talks, with a target of reaching a deal by July 21. The positive developments provided a slight boost to the Canadian dollar (CAD).

Oil Price Pressure, US Debt Outlook

On the other hand, crude oil prices are facing pressure. Investors are weighing easing risks in the Middle East versus the prospect of a possible output increase by OPEC+ in August. This could potentially weigh on the Loonie, the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, and could limit further downside for the USDCAD pair.

Meanwhile, if Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is passed, it is expected to add about $3.8 trillion to the US federal deficit. This widening fiscal imbalance could further weigh on the US dollar (USD) and potentially boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

US Economic Data to Watch
On the economic front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is expected to edge up from 48.5 to 48.8, indicating a slight increase in factory activity. The ADP employment report is also projected to show an increase in private sector job creation, with 85,000 jobs added compared to 37,000 in the previous month.

However, the main focus will shift toFriday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Expectations point to a slowdown in hiring, with 110,000 jobs added in June, down from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%, reinforcing the narrative of a cooling labour market. What do you think, will the NFP report be the main determinant of the US Dollar’s movement this week?

Canadian Dollar Under Pressure: US Tariff Threats, Weak Economy Hit Loonie
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) recently weakened above $1.37 per USD, pressured by a combination of new US tariff threats and trade policy uncertainty. The CAD had previously strengthened, but market sentiment has now turned around. The weakness was triggered by President Trump's announcement that he was ending all trade discussions with Canada over Canada's new digital services tax. Trump also warned of retaliatory tariffs, which immediately rattled exporters and dented confidence in near-term economic growth.

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Domestically, the Canadian economy is expected to contract by a 0.1% monthly rate in April and May, highlighting Canada's vulnerability to potential US levies and dampening the outlook for trade-sensitive sectors. Although the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy interest rate at 2.75%, citing strong core inflation and signalling that no further rate cuts are imminent, this hawkish stance has not been enough to counter the pressure from resurgent tariff fears.

From a technical perspective, the intraday bias in USDCAD is neutral after a temporary rebound from 1.3590. Broadly speaking, the pair is still likely to move to the bearish side below 200 bar EMA. On the downside, with a break of the 1.3590 temporary low a retest of the 1.3538 low should be done first. A strong break there would resume a larger decline. For now, the risk remains on the downside as long as the 1.3797 resistance holds, in case of a recovery.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#202
Jul 3, 2025 4:19am Jul 3, 2025 4:19am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 3rd July 2025.

Markets Soar as Vietnam Tariff Deal Eases Trade Tensions Ahead of Key Jobs Report.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=dollar
Global financial markets moved higher this week, with Wall Street hitting fresh record highs after President Donald Trump announced a last-minute trade agreement with Vietnam, easing concerns about aggressive tariff hikes. The deal, finalised just days ahead of a July 9 deadline, marks the third such trade accord under the administration’s push for ‘reciprocal tariffs’ and offers a temporary sigh of relief to investors navigating an increasingly volatile global outlook.

But while the headline deal offered a near-term boost to equities, underlying tensions around fiscal policy, global debt burdens, and upcoming US jobs data kept markets on edge.

Vietnam Trade Agreement Lifts Sentiment, but Tariffs Still High
Trump’s announcement confirmed that Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tariff, significantly lower than the threatened 46%, but still more than double historical rates. In return, Vietnam will drop tariffs on US goods.

The agreement arrives amid growing pressure on America’s trading partners to meet Washington’s demands. Dozens of economies, including Japan and the EU, are still racing to finalise similar deals before steep tariff increases take effect on July 9. Trump has already warned Japan that if negotiations fail, tariffs could spike to 30–35%, well above the temporary 10% rate introduced earlier this year.

The broader message: the risk of global tariff escalation remains very real.

Wall Street Breaks Records as Investors Bet on Policy Clarity
US equities cheered the trade progress. The S&P 500 climbed 0.47%, the Nasdaq surged 0.94%, and both closed at new all-time highs. The Dow Jones edged slightly lower by 0.02%. Investors were also buoyed by renewed optimism around Trump’s proposed tax and spending package, which aims to make tax cuts permanent and scale back regulations.

Yet, beneath the surface, uncertainty lingers. Treasury yields climbed as the Senate passed the OBBB bill, stoking fears about deficit spending. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.277%, while the 2-year rate edged up to 3.785%. Bond markets remain sensitive to the growing national debt and the prospect of further supply.

Tax Bill Faces Hurdles, Fuels Fiscal Concerns
Trump’s ambitious tax and spending bill, valued at $3.3 trillion, is facing resistance in the House. While it proposes making earlier tax cuts permanent and includes deregulation efforts, critics warn it would significantly expand the national debt and cut social safety net programs.

These concerns spilt into the bond market, with even Japanese government yields rising, despite a strong 30-year auction. Globally, investors are re-evaluating the balance between stimulus and sustainability.

Dollar Pulls Back, Commodities Gain
Currency markets reflected a mixed mood. The US dollar index (DXY) initially rallied to 97.152 but closed the day lower at 96.787, giving support to commodities. The British pound held firm at $1.3628 after nearly 1% losses the previous day. Political stability returned after UK PM Keir Starmer publicly backed Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, whose emotional parliamentary appearance followed controversy over welfare policy U-turns.

The euro slipped to $1.1788, still near its recent high, while the yen weakened slightly to 143.84 per dollar.

Gold prices firmed, and oil advanced sharply, with Brent crude nearing $69 and WTI above $67, following the Vietnam deal and ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where producers are expected to boost output quotas.

Meanwhile, copper surged to a 3-month high, nearing $10,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, as traders scrambled to ship supplies to the US in anticipation of tariffs. LME inventories have fallen to their lowest since 2023, and the rush has pushed the market into what analysts call ‘an emotional frenzy.’ The LME recently stepped in with new rules to manage speculative positions.

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Asia Mixed as Tariff Risks and US Data Loom
Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday. Vietnam’s index rose 0.5% to a 2-year high, while the Vietnamese dong hit a record low of 26,229 per dollar. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1%, though China’s blue chips gained 0.5%.

Investors remain cautious. AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver, warned that the Vietnam deal could set a precedent for similarly aggressive trade measures against Europe and Japan.

South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung also struck a pessimistic tone, saying US negotiations were ‘difficult’ and that a deal may not be reached in time.

All Eyes on US Nonfarm Payrolls
With the July 4 holiday approaching, markets are now laser-focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. While the consensus points to a 130,000-job increase, recent weakness in the ADP private payrolls, which showed a 33,000-job drop, suggests downside risks. The services sector bore the brunt of the losses, especially in professional, educational, and health services, while leisure and manufacturing saw modest gains.

Bloomberg’s whisper number has already dropped to 98,000, indicating that expectations are being recalibrated. The data could prove decisive in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

Conclusion: A Calm Before the Storm?
While markets welcomed the easing of trade tensions with Vietnam, the bigger picture remains uncertain. The threat of broader tariff hikes, unresolved fiscal debates in Congress, and a pivotal US jobs report all loom large. Investors are watching closely, not just for short-term reactions but for clues about the direction of monetary policy, global trade, and commodity demand in the second half of 2025.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#203
Jul 4, 2025 5:58am Jul 4, 2025 5:58am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 4th July 2025.

European Markets Slip Ahead of Tariff Deadline, Wall Street Surges on Jobs Report and Fiscal Optimism.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...ump_featured_1
European Equities Slide on Trade Uncertainty
European stock markets edged lower on Friday as investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of a looming US trade policy deadline. With the July 9 expiration of President Trump's 90-day pause on increased tariffs approaching, concerns over unresolved trade agreements weighed heavily on sentiment.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined by 0.4% to 541.61 points in early trading, setting course for a weekly loss. Major regional benchmarks across the continent also moved into negative territory, driven by uncertainty over US-EU trade negotiations.

US Markets Rally on Robust Jobs Data and Legislative Progress
President Trump announced that Washington would begin sending formal tariff notifications to trading partners on Friday. These letters will detail the new duties—expected to range between 20% and 30%—on goods exported to the United States. Several key allies, including the European Union and Japan, have yet to secure final trade deals with the US, raising fears of a renewed trade war.

Sector-wise, mining stocks led the losses with a 1.1% drop, followed by a 0.8% slide in technology shares. Meanwhile, France’s Alstom gained 1.1% after landing a €2 billion ($2.4 billion) contract from New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

US equity markets surged as traders reacted positively to a stronger-than-expected June employment report and growing optimism over fiscal stimulus. The markets closed early on Wednesday ahead of the July 4 holiday, but not before notching record highs.

NASDAQ rose 1.02% to 20,601
S&P 500 climbed 0.83% to 6,279
Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77% to 44,828, near its January peak of 44,882

Investor confidence was further boosted by the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) in the US House of Representatives. Approved by a narrow 218–214 vote, the sweeping pro-growth legislation is expected to be signed into law by President Trump on July 4, his self-imposed deadline.

The OBBB aims to generate $500 billion in savings over the next decade, defying the Congressional Budget Office’s projection of a $3.3 trillion deficit increase. Key provisions include:

Raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion
Expanding standard deductions and child tax credit
Reducing taxes on tips, overtime, Social Security, and auto loans
Increasing the SALT deduction cap to $40,000
Blocking a planned $4.5 billion tax hike set for year-end

As equities climbed, volatility dropped, with the VIX falling 1.56% to 16.38. However, US Treasury yields spiked amid strong data and diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 2-year yield rose 9.5 basis points to 3.88%, while the 10-year yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.35%.

DXY (US Dollar Index) surged to 97.422 before paring gains to close at 97.168, supported by US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s commitment to maintaining a strong-dollar policy.

Oil Prices Ease on Diplomatic Hopes and OPEC+ Output Plans
Crude oil prices retreated slightly on Friday, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of increased supply from OPEC+.

Brent crude dipped 0.51% to $68.45 per barrel
WTI crude dropped 0.37% to $66.75 per barrel

Oil markets responded to reports that the US and Iran may resume nuclear talks next week, as disclosed by both Iranian officials and US media outlet Axios. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, despite recent tensions and legislation suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Looking ahead, traders are closely watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where an additional production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August is expected. Four delegates confirmed the proposed hike as the oil alliance continues efforts to reclaim market share.

Additional Developments: Sanctions and Diplomacy
Adding complexity to the geopolitical picture, the US Treasury imposed fresh sanctions on a network accused of smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi shipments. Another target included a Hezbollah-linked financial entity.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with President Trump at the White House to discuss regional de-escalation strategies.

Meanwhile, Barclays revised its oil price forecast upward, citing stronger demand outlooks. The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $72 per barrel in 2025, and $70 per barrel in 2026.

Conclusion: Markets Brace for Trade Decision, but Optimism Lingers
Global markets are at a crossroads, with investors balancing optimism over US economic momentum and fiscal policy against the potential fallout of escalating trade tensions. As the July 9 tariff deadline nears and nuclear talks with Iran possibly resume, both equity and energy markets may experience renewed volatility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#204
Jul 7, 2025 5:27am Jul 7, 2025 5:27am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 7th July 2025.

Oil Prices Drop But Bullish Potential Remains!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=Oil2_Featured
OPEC members confirm they will increase oil production and output in July and August. As a result, the price of Oil fell 1.40% on Monday, but almost regains its previous losses. According to reports, the higher output is an attempt by OPEC members to regain market share. Oil has largely been trading sideways since June 24th after the 16% decline. What’s next for Crude Oil prices?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUS Oil / Crude Oil Chart

OPEC and New Oil Output!
Members of OPEC have seen tensions rise as certain members have been producing more oil than others. As a result, the main topic for discussion during yesterday’s meeting was an increase across all members. This development was the main reason for the day’s bearish price gap.

As Bloomberg reports, Riyadh is trying to win back lost market share by asking to continue the production quota adjustment of 411,000 barrels per day in August, and possibly in the months thereafter. Saudi Aramco has already lowered the price of Arab Light crude for Asian buyers by $0.20 in July. At the same time, eight OPEC+ countries, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are slowly lifting their voluntary production cuts, raising output by another 386,000 barrels per day.

Morgan Stanley analysts expect Brent Crude to fall to around $60.20 and Crude Oil to $58.80, with a supply surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026.

Potential For Regained Bullish Momentum
Regardless of the bearish price gap, traders should note that bullish momentum is being regained. According to many economists, the potential for higher oil prices continues to linger at the back of traders’ minds despite the US actively looking to bring prices lower. This includes stronger-than-expected economic data, particularly from the employment sector.

The US latest employment report came as a shock to investors, and the country’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since March and significantly lower than the market’s projections. In addition to this, the NFP Employment Change read 35,000 higher than expectations. Higher economic and employment data can justify a higher oil output and keep prices high.

On the other hand, the economy and its outlook will significantly depend on global trade policy. Currently, investors look for confirmation on which countries will see higher tariffs imposed. The current deadline is July 9th. If the policy change triggers a bearish market, the price of Oil is likely to fall.

Lastly, another factor which investors are contemplating is the ability of Iran to enrich and produce nuclear weapons. According to the Pentagon, the recent attacks on Iran set back the nuclear program by 6-12 months. Also, most experts believe the US, Israel and Iran will not be able to make an agreement on the country’s nuclear policy. As a result, is the conflict simply going to resume at a later point? If so, the geo-political tensions could push prices higher as they did in June 2025.

Key Takeaway Points:

OPEC+ is increasing oil output in July and August to regain market share, leading to an initial dip in prices.
Despite the output increase, a potential for bullish momentum remains due to stronger-than-expected data, especially in the US employment sector.
Upcoming global trade policy changes (July 9th deadline) could trigger a bearish market and cause oil prices to fall if new tariffs are imposed.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program could push oil prices higher again if conflict resumes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#205
Jul 8, 2025 7:53am Jul 8, 2025 7:53am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 8th July 2025.

AUD Rallies as RBA Chooses a Surprise Rate Pause.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...e=AUD_Featured
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official cash rate at 3.85%, surprisingly avoiding another interest rate cut. Previously, analysts were expecting Australia’s central bank to again cut interest rates by a further 0.25% to 3.60%. As a result, the Australian Dollar is the day’s best-performing currency so far.

AUDUSD - RBA Keeps Rates Unchanged
The Australian Dollar rose in value due to the surprisingly hawkish central bank; however, traders tend to speculate a bullish currency against a poorly performing currency. By doing so, traders can avoid two conflicting currencies. The worst-performing currencies over the past 30 days are the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Therefore, the AUDUSD and AUDJPY are particularly interesting.

The AUDUSD rose up to 1.05% during this morning’s Asian Session and is forming its first bullish candlestick after 3 days of consecutive declines. The US Dollar continues to come under pressure from its trade policy. The latest developments are related to Japan and South Korea, which will see a 25% tariff imposed from August 1st. Japan has the 7th largest deficit with the US, and South Korea has the 8th largest.

Furthermore, investors had been shorting the US Dollar over the past 2 weeks over expectations of a dovish central bank. According to experts, the US President is likely to put in place a chairman, which is known for his dovish nature and is in line with the current ‘Trump-economics’, but this idea has come under pressure from the latest employment data. The latest employment data read significantly stronger than previous projections.

AUDJPY - JPY Struggles Due To US Tariffs
The Japanese Yen is one of the worst-performing currencies of the day, primarily due to President Trump confirming 25% tariffs on Japan. The AUDJPY rose to its highest level since February 21st.

Following May's surprisingly low inflation and a deceleration in first-quarter economic growth, forecasts for a rate cut became almost universal. In regards to the Reserve Bank of Australia, according to economists, the central bank is likely to pause rate cuts for 3-4 months before continuing to cut rates towards the end of the year.

According to the Governor of the RBA, the committee is looking to wait for confirmation that indeed inflation has fallen and will remain low before cutting rates. This confirms that the RBA is looking to cut, but the timing will depend on inflation over the next months. The country’s inflation rate is currently 2.4%. If the rate remains at this level for a further 2 months or falls even lower at the next release, a rate cut will become more likely.

In terms of technical analysis, the price of the AUDJPY is trading significantly higher than the main moving averages. This indicates the level of demand but also prompts caution as investors consider if the price is overbought in the short term. However, if the price declines back to the 95.291 support level, the AUDJPY will no longer be overbought. As a result, traders may take into consideration buying at the discounted price. The performance of the AUDJPY will also depend on tomorrow’s rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as well as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the RBNZ decide to cut as per current expectations, the AUD may find further support.

Key Takeaway Points:

RBA surprisingly held interest rates at 3.85%, despite expectations for a cut, causing the AUD to strengthen significantly.
The US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) are under pressure due to renewed US trade tariff threats (25% on Japan/South Korea from August 1st) and expectations of dovish US monetary policy.
AUDUSD and AUDJPY are favoured pairs as traders look to go long on the strong AUD against underperforming currencies. AUDJPY hit a high not seen since February 21st.
The RBA needs further inflation confirmation before resuming rate cuts later this year, indicating a potential pause for 3-4 months.

#206
Jul 9, 2025 5:21am Jul 9, 2025 5:21am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 9th July 2025.

Symmetrical Triangle Support: Gold Rebound Imminent?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...d6d894eb4e4198
Gold’s price comes under pressure for a fourth day, primarily due to positive US data and a stronger Dollar. The US employment data from the previous week is the main driver of a weaker price as rate cuts become less likely and sentiment rises. Though both technical and fundamental analysts are contemplating whether the trend will suddenly change.

Gold Continues to Decline
The bearish price movement came after surprisingly positive employment data on July 3rd. The latest employment report revealed robust growth, with the NFP change expanding by 147,000. This figure far surpassed the 111,000 forecast and even exceeded May's 144,000, largely attributed to significant hiring in the civil service (73,000) and healthcare (39,000). As a result, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1%, though Average Hourly Earnings saw a marginal decrease.

Gold has also come under pressure from the strengthening US Dollar and the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar Index has risen more than 1% over the past week, pressuring Gold due to its inverse correlation. The market also now expects a more hawkish Federal Reserve and this can be seen through indications available by stock exchanges. For example, the Chicago exchange previously stated a 6% possibility of an interest rate pause in September. That figure has now risen to 34%.

Although traders should note that this may change depending on tonight's FOMC Meeting Minutes. Gold price movement will also depend on the current developments within the Oil market, geopolitics, earnings season and the US trade policy.

What Could Trigger Gold to Rebound?
While geopolitical tensions seem to be improving, other factors suggest potential for an upside. Crucially, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear program, remain a significant wild card. Any escalation could swiftly push Gold prices higher, as seen in the first 2 weeks of June 2025. According to analysts, this remains an issue as experts believe Iran will continue to enrich uranium and no agreement has been made with the US so far.

In addition to this, despite minor deadline extensions from July 9th, the Trump administration's ongoing pursuit of new 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea (effective August 1st). This continues to generate significant market volatility and uncertainty, which if continues, may support Gold’s rebound. These impending tariffs are particularly impactful given both nations' considerable trade deficits with the US.

Another major issue is the EU, which is yet to make an agreement in principle with the US. The US has proposed a deal to the EU with a 10% baseline tariff on most goods, offering exemptions for sectors like aircraft, spirits, and cosmetics. However, the U.S. is currently unwilling to exempt sensitive industries like cars, steel, and aluminium, which the EU has strongly requested. If no agreement is made, the ‘risk-off’ sentiment can support another bullish trend for Gold.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Technical Analysis Show Symmetrical Triangle
There's a strong preference for buying in all types of contracts. Investors who use actual money hold significantly more ‘buy’ positions (167,386 thousand) than ‘sell’ positions (36,902 thousand). Last week, buyers increased their holdings by 4,217 thousand deals, while sellers increased theirs by 1,925 thousand, confirming a global trend towards investment.

In terms of technical analysis, most indicators continue to signal downward price movement. However, on the daily chart, the price is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern and trading at the support level. Therefore, traders will monitor if the price reacts to this support level and if the US Dollar weakens throughout the day.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngXAUUSD Daily Chart

Key Takeaway Points:

Gold's price is falling, driven by strong US job data, a strengthening US Dollar and low rate cut expectations.
Geopolitical risks and new US tariffs could trigger a Gold rally if this escalates to trigger a risk-off sentiment.
Gold's technical charts show a symmetrical triangle pattern, and the price is trading close to its support level. However, trend indicators point towards bearish momentum.
Despite Trump’s extensions for trade agreements, the market remains cautious as no agreement has yet been made with Korea, Japan and the EU.

#207
Jul 10, 2025 5:20am Jul 10, 2025 5:20am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 10th July 2025.

Will The Dow Jones Rebound Ahead Of Next Week’s Earnings?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...file=dow-jones
The second quarter's earnings season is likely to impact the Dow Jones most among US indexes during its first days. Earnings Season is due to start on July 15th, starting this the banking sector, which makes up almost 18% of the Dow Jones. Currently, the Dow Jones is trading significantly lower than other indices, only edging up 4.85% in 2025 so far. Investors are contemplating if this is likely to change in the upcoming week.

Dow Jones And Earnings Season
During the first week of earnings season, the Dow Jones will see quarterly reports from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Johnson&Johnson. Investors are particularly focused on the quarterly earnings report from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs is the most influential stock for the Dow Jones, holding a weight of 9.63%.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngDow Jones 2-Hour Chart

Goldman Sachs stocks have risen 21% in 2025 so far and have been one of the best-performing stocks for the Dow Jones. Zacks Investment Research, based on a survey of 7 analysts, forecasts a consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $9.37 for this quarter. The figure is up from the $8.62 EPS made public for the same quarter last year. The company has also beat its earnings expectations over the past 3 quarters.

JP Morgan will be the first company to release its quarterly earnings report. JP Morgan stocks are currently up 18% in 2025 and have beaten its earnings expectations over the past 4 quarters. In addition to this, Johnson&Johnson will also release their quarterly report on Thursday, but only holds a weight of 2.19%.

The performance of the Dow Jones will significantly depend on the performance of the 3 quarterly earnings reports. If all 3 companies confirm higher-than-expected earnings, the Dow Jones is likely to witness buy signals from both technical and fundamental analysis.

FOMC And Trade Dampening Market Sentiment
Even though earnings season and the upcoming reports from the banking sector may prompt a rebound, the Dow Jones is currently trading lower. This is largely due to trade tensions, which remain unchanged. More on this can be found in yesterday’s article. However, some positive developments could be seen from yesterday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes.

According to the Meeting Minutes, the Federal Reserve is split between when they should cut and how frequently cuts should be in the second half of 2025. Some members of the committee believe refraining from cuts would be appropriate due to trade policy uncertainties. Their fear is that tariffs and supply disruptions will trigger higher prices and inflation. On the other hand, the number of members leaning towards a rate cut is increasing.

Although it is also important for traders to note that the dovish members of the Federal Reserve are siding with rate cuts due to weaknesses within the employment sector. The meeting took place before last week’s US NFP data. Therefore, their fear may have cooled since the better-than-expected employment data, such as the unemployment rate declining to 4.1%. Nonetheless, the possibility of a September ‘pause’ has fallen from 35% to 28% according to the FedWatch Tool. This is positive for the Dow Jones and stocks in general.

Dow Jones - Price Analysis
Currently, the Dow Jones is trading lower during this morning’s Asia Session, but continues to remain higher than the 75-period moving average. The fact that the price is still above the moving average and the RSI is also forming higher lows will possibly indicate that buyers may still reenter the market. If the price increases above $44,398.45, buy signals may potentially materialise.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngDow Jones 5-Minute Chart

Key Takeaway Points:

The Dow Jones’ rebound will heavily depend on strong Q2 earnings from major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. Earnings to start on July 15th.
Goldman Sachs, the Dow's most influential stock, has seen its shares rise 21% in 2025, and analysts project it will report strong Q2 earnings.
The Federal Reserve is split on rate cuts, as inflation concerns weigh against arguments for cuts due to employment weakness.
Despite current minor dips, the Dow's position above its moving average and positive RSI suggest potential buyer re-entry and a possible rally if it surpasses $44,398.45.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#208
Jul 11, 2025 6:35am Jul 11, 2025 6:35am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 11th July 2025.

Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=gold_featured
Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.

Trade Tensions Escalate
President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.

However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.

Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.

It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.

The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.

How Will The Fed Impact Gold?
The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.

Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngGold 15-Minute Chart

If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600

Key Takeaway Points:

Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility.
Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role.
Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook.
Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals.

#209
Jul 14, 2025 3:44am Jul 14, 2025 3:44am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 14th July 2025.

Global Markets Weekly: Trade Tensions, Bitcoin & Silver Surge.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...eda3d0c1f72ed8
Asian Markets Mixed as Trade Tensions and Earnings Season Take Centre Stage
Asian equities showed mixed performance on Monday, following a subdued session on Wall Street where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated slightly from last week’s record highs. Market sentiment remained cautious as investors assessed the impact of renewed trade tensions and prepared for a busy week of corporate earnings.

Trump's Tariff Threats Stir Global Trade Concerns
US President Donald Trump over the weekend announced plans to implement 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union, starting August 1. Though the news created headlines, markets reacted calmly as analysts anticipate progress in negotiations before the deadline. In response, the Mexican peso slightly weakened, trading at 18.6 per US dollar.

Further fueling tensions, Trump also hinted at raising tariffs on Canadian imports to 35%, along with potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs and a 50% tariff on copper. The European Union has already prepared a retaliatory tariff package worth €21 billion ($24.52 billion), according to Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.

Chinese Trade Surplus Hits Record Despite US Decline
China ended the first half of the year with a record trade surplus of approximately $586 billion. June exports rose 5.8% year-over-year to $325 billion, while imports climbed 1.1% for the first time since February. Although exports to the US dropped 16.1%, Chinese firms offset the decline with a 17% surge in shipments to ASEAN nations.

"China's trade resisted pressure and progressed in the first half of the year," noted Wang Lingjun, deputy head of the General Administration of Customs. However, he warned that rising protectionism continues to pose risks to global trade.

Silver Nears 14-Year High Amid Supply Concerns
Silver prices approached a 14-year peak, driven by strong investor demand and speculation over potential US tariffs on industrial metals. Spot silver rose as much as 1.6% in Asian trading, building on last week’s 4% surge. The one-month borrowing cost for silver spiked above 6%, signalling tight supply conditions.

Analysts highlight silver’s appeal as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial input, particularly for solar panels. The metal is up 35% year-to-date, outpacing gold’s 28% rise, with 2025 likely marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficits, according to the Silver Institute.

Bitcoin Breaks Records as Crypto Momentum Builds
Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high of $122,065, gaining 3.6% early Monday. The cryptocurrency has climbed 29% in 2025, bolstered by a bullish trend in risk assets and increased institutional interest. The rally coincides with Nvidia reaching a $4 trillion market cap and the launch of ‘Crypto Week’ in the US Congress, where lawmakers will debate new regulatory frameworks for digital assets.

Wall Street Cautious Ahead of Earnings and CPI Data
Friday saw US stocks end the week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 6,259.75, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.6% to 44,371.51, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.2% to 20,585.53. The pullback followed record-setting highs earlier in the week.

Investors are turning their attention to key inflation data and corporate earnings. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Tuesday, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision set for later this month.

Big US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, are scheduled to report quarterly results, providing insight into the IPO and M&A landscape. Netflix will kick off earnings for tech giants, while ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are expected to offer updates on the AI chip boom. Other key earnings include PepsiCo, United Airlines, and American Express.

Oil and Currency Markets Remain Stable
In commodity markets, US crude edged up 9 cents to $68.54 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 10 cents to $70.46. On the currency front, the dollar dipped to 147.36 yen, and the euro fell to $1.1659.

With escalating trade tensions, volatile commodity prices, and major corporate earnings ahead, markets are bracing for another eventful week. Investors will be watching for clarity on global trade policies and signals from the Fed as they navigate a landscape marked by uncertainty and opportunity.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#210
Jul 15, 2025 5:15am Jul 15, 2025 5:15am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 15th July 2025.
European Stocks Rise on Trade Hopes, Asian Markets Dip | CPI & Bitcoin in Focus.
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...26315187a109b1
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
European stocks climbed on Tuesday, led by gains in the automobile and technology sectors, after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate tariffs with the European Union.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index edged 0.2% higher to 547.74 points by 07:11 GMT, supported by positive momentum across most regional bourses. The market’s tone improved after Trump hinted at upcoming discussions with EU officials, despite recent threats of steep tariffs on European imports.
Trade Hopes Support European Equities
While the EU had earlier accused the US of blocking progress toward a trade agreement, investor sentiment was lifted when Trump confirmed that EU representatives would soon visit Washington for negotiations. The US president had previously escalated trade tensions by threatening to impose a 30% tariff on most EU imports starting August 1, heightening concerns over a broader trade conflict.
Automobile stocks led the charge in Europe, advancing 0.9%, while tech shares followed with a 0.8% gain. Telecoms, however, lagged, dipping 0.8%.Among notable movers, Orsted shares surged 5.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Danish offshore wind energy firm to “Overweight” from “Equal Weight,” citing stronger growth prospects.
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...9.original.png
Key Data and Earnings in Focus
Investors are eyeing crucial macroeconomic data releases on Tuesday, including Eurozone industrial production for May and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July. Across the Atlantic, the US earnings season kicks off, with major banks set to release their second-quarter results. Additionally, the highly anticipated US CPI inflation data for June is due later in the day, expected to show a slight acceleration in consumer prices.
Markets Retreat on Tariff Fears
In contrast, Asian stock markets mostly traded lower in early Tuesday deals, weighed down by renewed concerns over US tariff threats.
* Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.1% to 39,507.28
* Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.4% to 8,602.70
* South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.2% to 3,195.72
* Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.1%
* China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 0.9%
China’s GDP growth slowed slightly in the second quarter to 5.2% year-over-year, down from 5.4% in Q1, reflecting the drag from escalating trade tensions. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.1%, official data showed.
US Markets Hold Steady as CPI Report Looms
On Monday, US equities posted modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones rising 0.2%, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.3%. Investors are cautiously optimistic that the White House may tone down tariff threats, especially with trade negotiations ongoing and financial markets showing resilience.
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Gold Rises Amid Mixed Trade Signals
Gold prices rebounded, gaining as much as 0.5% after Monday’s pullback. The precious metal remains a safe-haven favorite in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Although Trump expressed openness to renewed talks, his insistence that tariff notification letters serve as the “final deal” has left markets unsure.
Gold has surged over 25% year-to-date, briefly surpassing $3,500 an ounce in April, driven by global volatility and aggressive US trade rhetoric. However, the rally has paused in recent months, with investors waiting for more clarity on global trade frameworks.
Bitcoin Soars as US Debates Crypto-Friendly Legislation
In the digital asset space, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $122,404 on Monday, boosted by optimism surrounding crypto-focused legislation in the US. The Genius Act, along with the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, is set for debate in Congress this week. The bills aim to provide regulatory clarity and further integrate cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance.
NVIDIA Poised to Resume China Sales
NVIDIA is preparing to resume sales of its revised H20 GPUs to China, in compliance with updated US export regulations. Sources indicate the company has received positive signals from policymakers after CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump, reaffirming support for domestic job creation and innovation.
Inflation Data and Earnings Set the Tone for the Week
Markets remain focused on US inflation data, with June CPI expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, and the core index projected to increase 0.3%. Annual headline inflation is likely to accelerate to 2.6% from 2.4% in May, while the core CPI may edge up to 2.9%, staying below the 3% threshold for the fourth consecutive month.
These figures are critical as the Federal Reserve assesses whether to maintain its dovish stance or adjust policy in response to trade developments and inflation trends.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#211
Jul 16, 2025 5:32am Jul 16, 2025 5:32am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 16th July 2025.

Mixed US CPI Data Clouds Fed Outlook While Global Markets React to Tariff Jitters.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...kets2_featured
US financial markets remained choppy following the release of June's CPI report, which presented a mixed inflation picture. While headline consumer prices rose 0.3%—the largest gain since January—core inflation cooled slightly, increasing by just 0.2%. This combination has left investors and policymakers without a clear signal on the direction of the US economy, tempering hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term.

Rate cut expectations for the September FOMC meeting slipped to 60%, down from 68% earlier this week. Fed fund futures now reflect a lower implied rate of -14 basis points for September, compared to -18.8 bps after the June jobs report and -29 bps following weaker-than-expected ADP data on July 2. The probability of a second cut in December has also decreased, with the December contract pricing in -44 bps, down from a fully priced -50 bps earlier.

Inflation Drivers and Tariff Impact
June's CPI surge was driven by a 0.9% increase in energy prices, including a 1.0% rise in gasoline costs. Other contributors included medical care services (+0.6%), tobacco (+0.5%), and apparel (+0.4%). Meanwhile, vehicle prices dragged on the index, with new vehicles falling by 0.3% and used vehicles declining by 0.7%. Year-over-year, headline CPI rose to 2.7%, while core CPI edged up to 2.9%.

Economists attribute much of the price pressure to the Trump administration’s tariff increases, particularly in sectors like coffee, furniture, and pharmaceuticals. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously warned, the inflationary effects of these tariffs are beginning to show, and could continue building into the third quarter, especially as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches.

Treasury Yields Rise, Nasdaq Hits Record
Despite the cooler core reading, Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.495%, the highest since June 11. This movement was partially driven by technical selling and growing concerns that tariff-induced price hikes could spill over into PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied to fresh record highs, supported by a strong performance from AI bellwether Nvidia.

Global Central Banks in Focus
The Bank of England is also facing inflation challenges. UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated, with headline CPI rising to 3.6% year-over-year and core CPI climbing to 3.7%. Services inflation held steady at a concerning 4.7%. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann warned that job insecurity is driving consumer caution and increased savings, which may weigh on growth sectors like retail and hospitality.

While another rate cut in August is still likely, these inflation numbers may reduce the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...1.original.png
Asia, Oil, and Commodities
Asian equity markets were broadly under pressure as rising US yields and a stronger dollar weighed on investor sentiment. The dollar climbed to its highest against the yen since early April, driven by speculation that the Fed may delay any easing. Mainland Chinese blue chips fell 0.5%, while South Korea's KOSPI declined 1%. Taiwan’s tech-heavy index bucked the trend, rising 0.9%.

Meanwhile, oil prices hovered near recent lows, with Brent crude trading at $68.96 a barrel. Despite rising global inventories, Morgan Stanley noted that much of the buildup occurred outside OECD nations, limiting its impact on futures pricing. The bank retained its Brent forecast at $65 for Q4 2025, but warned that post-summer demand might not be enough to prevent a renewed surplus.

Gold regained ground, trading near $3,340 an ounce, supported by continued geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rebounded 1% after a recent pullback from its record high above $123,000.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...2.original.png
Looking Ahead
Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming producer price data for additional clues on inflationary trends. Meanwhile, earnings season is ramping up, with mixed results from major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup and more reports due from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America.

As global markets continue to digest a flurry of data and geopolitical developments, the coming weeks may provide more clarity on central bank policy paths and broader economic trends.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#212
Jul 17, 2025 5:27am Jul 17, 2025 5:27am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 17th July 2025.

Global Markets Mixed Amid Bond Yield Moves, UK Jobs Data, and Japan Trade Concerns.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...banks_featured
Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asian markets posted broad-based gains on Thursday, following a strong finish on Wall Street. European equities also opened higher across the board, while US stock futures remain narrowly mixed in pre-market trade. However, rising global bond yields and mixed economic data continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Bond Yields Climb Globally

Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) closed stronger, pushing the 10-year yield down by 1.9 basis points. However, US Treasury yields quickly reversed early gains, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.48%, up 2.4 basis points. Meanwhile, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose 1.2 basis points, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt added 2.6 basis points, reflecting market jitters around global inflation and interest rate expectations.

UK Labour Market Data Strengthens Rate Cut Bets

The UK labour market surprised to the downside, with the ILO unemployment rate rising to 4.7% in the three months to May, up from 4.6%. While total employment increased by 134,000 during the period, more recent data showed a drop of 41,000 payrolled employees in June, following a 25,000 decline the previous month. Jobless claims also rose by 25,900 in June.

At the same time, wage growth showed signs of deceleration. Headline pay growth slowed to 5.0% from 5.4%, while regular pay (excluding bonuses) also eased to 5.0%. These figures, combined with recent inflation data, reinforce expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently indicated that labour market conditions will be a key factor in the pace of monetary easing.

Currency and Commodities Snapshot

The US dollar briefly dipped below the 98 mark amid speculation that President Trump was considering removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, the greenback quickly recovered, with the Dollar Index (DXY) currently at 98.71.

Gold prices slipped by 0.4%, trading at $3332.65 per ounce. Crude oil prices remained stable, with WTI front-month futures slightly lower at $66.39 per barrel. The oil market continues to monitor US inventories and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...6.original.png

Australian Job Market Weakens

Australia’s labour market showed signs of softening as unemployment rose unexpectedly to a four-year high in June. Hiring activity nearly stalled, raising the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting.

Looking Ahead

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...2.original.png

Japan Slides into Trade Deficit as US Tariffs Bite

Japan posted a trade deficit of 2.2 trillion yen (€13 billion) in the first half of the year, driven by a decline in exports amid ongoing US tariff pressure. June exports fell 0.5% year-over-year, following a 1.7% drop in May. Shipments to the US were particularly hit, declining 11%, with auto exports plunging 26.7%, following a 25% tariff introduced in April.

With nearly 20% of Japan’s exports heading to the US, the country is pushing for favourable trade agreements. Meanwhile, Japan prepares for Upper House elections this Sunday. Weak public support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could jeopardise the ruling party’s majority unless a new coalition is formed.

Recession Fears Mount in Japan

Japan’s economy contracted in Q1 and may be headed for another contraction in Q2. Falling exports and weakening global demand are raising fears that the country may officially enter a recession in the coming months.

Oil Prices Rebound Amid Supply Risks and Diesel Shortages

After three consecutive days of losses, oil prices edged higher. Traders are weighing lower-than-usual crude and diesel inventories in the US and Europe against broader concerns about future supply gluts. Diesel shortages in particular have supported prices in the short term.

‘The market is currently buoyed by tight diesel supplies, but if OPEC+ production ramps up, we may see a bearish shift,’ said Zhou Mi, an analyst at Chaos Ternary Futures Co.

US distillate stockpiles remain at their lowest seasonal level since 1996, despite a modest weekly increase. The futures spread between low-sulfur gasoil and Brent for September—a key indicator of diesel refining profitability—has jumped 7% this month.

Geopolitical Risks in Kurdistan Add to Supply Concerns

Drone strikes targeted several oil fields in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region on Wednesday. While the region has not exported crude since a pipeline closure over two years ago, the attacks highlight growing risks to global energy infrastructure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#213
Jul 18, 2025 5:53am Jul 18, 2025 5:53am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 18th July 2025.

Wall Street Hits New Highs Amid Strong Data, Optimism Over Fed Stability, and Tech Earnings Boom.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=fear_featured
Wall Street continued its record-breaking rally as stronger-than-expected US retail sales and jobless claims data reinforced confidence in the resilience of the US economy. Investor sentiment was further boosted by solid corporate earnings and easing fears over potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve.

The Nasdaq surged 0.74% to close at a new all-time high of 20,884, driven by gains in major tech stocks, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.54% to reach a record 6,297. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 0.52%, contributing to a broadly positive session across US equities.

FOMO Drives Rally; Tech, Crypto, and Earnings in Focus
Momentum was further fueled by FOMO (fear of missing out) as investors piled into the rally. Nvidia and Lucid led gains in the tech sector, with Lucid jumping 36% on bullish sentiment. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) reported record-breaking profits, adding to the enthusiasm.

PepsiCo shares also surged following better-than-expected revenue and earnings figures, while United Airlines rose 3.1%. After the bell, Netflix reported robust quarterly results, likely setting the tone for the next trading session.

Cryptocurrencies also moved higher after the US Congress passed the stablecoin regulation bill, injecting fresh optimism into the digital asset space.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...5.original.png

Bond Market Stabilises Amid Fed Leadership Clarity

Treasury yields initially declined as concerns over a potential dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell subsided, although the broader risk-on environment eventually erased some of the early gains in bonds.

Japan’s Markets on Edge Ahead of Key Upper House Election
Investors are closely watching Japan’s upcoming upper house election, which could have far-reaching implications for financial markets, government policy, and the direction of fiscal stimulus. The coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing mounting pressure, with opinion polls indicating a possible defeat.

Japanese Government Bonds Tumble; Yen Weakens Sharply
Japanese government bonds (JGBs) experienced a sharp sell-off, sending 30-year yields soaring to a historic high of 3.20%, while the yen dropped to multi-month lows against the US dollar and euro. This market turbulence reflects growing concern that a new government may accelerate fiscal spending through increased JGB issuance.

Three Key Election Scenarios for Markets:

LDP Retains Majority – Bullish for Bonds and Yen
A victory for Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition could stabilise the bond market and support the yen. Analysts believe that such an outcome would reduce expectations for aggressive fiscal spending.
LDP Loses Majority – Policy Shift and Leadership Change?
If the ruling coalition fails to secure 50 seats, Ishiba could be replaced. One potential successor, Sanae Takaichi, supports renewed monetary easing, an outcome that could spark volatility in both the yen and Japanese equities.
Opposition Surge – Market Disruption Likely
A strong performance by populist and reformist parties such as Sanseito could upend markets. Proposals to cut or eliminate Japan’s consumption tax may result in sharply higher long-term yields and further sell-offs in JGBs.

Crude Oil Extends Gains as US Resilience and Tight Supply Lift Sentiment
Oil prices rallied for a second straight session amid signs that the US economy remains resilient despite ongoing trade tensions. Brent crude approached the $70 mark, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $68.

Backwardation in the oil futures market, where near-term prices are higher than future contracts, suggests tight supply conditions. This comes even as OPEC+ continues to unwind production cuts.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...0.original.png

Diesel Market Tightness Supports Oil Prices
Gasoil stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub dropped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2022, further supporting oil prices. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs noted that inventory builds in non-price-setting regions are unlikely to derail the bullish trend.

Bitcoin Set to Reach New Highs as ETF Demand and Regulations Drive Rally
Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains bullish, with the cryptocurrency recently surpassing $120,000, and analysts projecting a high of $162,000 in 2025. According to UK-based fintech firm Finder, some experts even forecast a peak of $250,000 before year-end.

The bullish momentum is driven by a combination of favourable regulations, increasing institutional demand, and the rise of cryptocurrency ETFs, which offer more accessible exposure to Bitcoin and other digital assets.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...9.original.png

EU’s MiCA Regulation a Game-Changer
The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has been a key catalyst, providing regulatory clarity that is attracting more institutional investors to the space. According to Zondacrypto CEO Przemysław Kral, the alignment of regulatory progress and broader adoption is fueling this unprecedented rally.

Bottom Line: Global Markets Surge Amid Economic Optimism, Policy Shifts, and Tech Momentum
From Wall Street highs to Japan’s political uncertainty and the global oil rally, investors are navigating a dynamic landscape. With strong earnings, shifting policy expectations, and the continued evolution of crypto markets, financial markets are poised for more volatility, and opportunity in the weeks ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#214
Jul 21, 2025 5:37am Jul 21, 2025 5:37am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 21st July 2025.

Can The NASDAQ Maintain Its Bullish Trend?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...nasdaq_tuTNBcp
The NASDAQ rose to a new all-time high on Friday, almost bringing its 2025 gains to double-digit figures. The index’s gains for 2025 are currently 9.96% and are the 3rd best performing index after the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50. The NASDAQ is also performing well during this morning’s Asian Session, rising a further 0.33%. Will the NASDAQ end the week on a high?

EU vs US: Trade Battle
In 2025, most of the trade negotiations were focused on China, as were economists and investors. However, the EU’s volume of trade with the US is very similar to that of China. Therefore, investors will be eager to see if the two parties can negotiate an agreement or at least agree to a later deadline.

President Trump is applying pressure to raise tariffs on European goods, and the deadline is approaching. According to Bloomberg, the US is likely to harden its stance in the last days of negotiations. Ongoing negotiations with both the EU and China aim to avert further escalation ahead of the key August 1st deadline. This week will be key for negotiations and is likely to trigger a lot of volatility, but so far, it has not sparked a decline. However, if an agreement is not reached, the most likely response will be to sell stocks as investors will instantly fear the repercussions of higher tariffs. This was also something seen in February, March and April and resulted in a stock market crash.

The price has now fully corrected and risen to new all-time highs. However, this is only likely to continue if tariffs are avoided or reduced. The SNP500 and Nasdaq have been able to reach new highs over the past week only due to strong retail sales, falling jobless claims, and improved business sentiment, while Treasury yields dipped on Fed policy speculation. Retail Sales rose to 0.6% and Weekly Unemployment Claims were 12,000 lower than projections.

Quarterly Earnings Reports
Even though trade negotiations are stealing the spotlight, earnings reports will continue to create volatility. They will also help investors determine potential price movements in the coming days and weeks. The main quarterly earnings reports will come from Tesla and Alphabet (Google).

Alphabet is due to release its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday after the market closes. Currently, the stock holds a weight of 7.50% making the company the 4th most influential company for the NASDAQ. In the previous quarter, the stock easily beat the earnings per share projections, but the price came under a lot of pressure from the 2025 stock market crash. Currently, the stock is still trading 2.45% lower in 2025. However, if the revenue and earnings per share again beaten expectations, the stock is likely to rise. The average increase seen when the company has beat earnings is 4.00%.

Tesla is also due to release their earnings report after market close on Wednesday. The stock has been on a rollercoaster ride, partially due to sales figures but also due to external factors. The stock is currently trading 13% lower in 2025. Tesla's earnings projections are only $0.28 per share. This is even lower than the first quarter's projections, but the price volatility will depend on whether the actual figures are higher than the current projections. Buyers would like the earnings per share to rise to at least $0.35, which was the earnings from the projections for the previous quarter.

NASDAQ (USA100) - Technical Analysis
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNASDAQ 15-Minute Chart
Despite risks from potential bad earnings reports and trade tensions between the EU, China and the US, technical analysis continues to point to bullish price movements. The price continues to form higher highs and lows as well as remain above Moving Averages and the VWAP. The RSI also remains above 50.00 and is not witnessing signs of divergence.

Other signals of bullish price movement are the VIX index, which is trading 1.50% lower during today’s Asian Session. All global indices are also trading higher, except the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Put/Call ratio slightly dips. All these factors support a ‘risk-on’ sentiment, but earnings and trade negotiations will need to continue to support this.

Key Takeaway Points:

NASDAQ nears double-digit 2025 gains, hitting record highs and rising further in the Asian session.
US–EU trade tensions escalate ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline, risking market volatility. The NASDAQ’s performance is deeply entwined with the outcome of these negotiations.
Earnings from Tesla and Alphabet this week could drive sharp price moves depending on results.
Technical indicators remain bullish, with rising prices, low VIX, and strong RSI despite macro risks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#215
Jul 22, 2025 4:47am Jul 22, 2025 4:47am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 22nd July 2025.
Gold Gains Momentum: What’s Driving Gold Higher?
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=gold-featured
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
Gold saw its strongest bullish price movement since June 13th, pushing the price above the previous swing high. Due to the bullish momentum from Monday, Gold is now officially witnessing a bullish trend pattern. The commodity has formed three consecutive ‘higher highs’ on July 3rd, July 14th and July 21st. What is driving the upward price movement?
Federal Reserve and Deutsche Bank
Even though most economists do not believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, some dovish comments persist. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a rate cut in July, arguing that slowing economic momentum and inflation from tariffs are likely temporary. This view contrasts with other Fed officials who prefer a more cautious, wait-and-see stance.
Nonetheless, the comments have resulted in a weaker US Dollar and bullish sentiment towards Gold. Previously, the Federal Reserve was advising that inflation from tariffs would not be temporary. A stance which is slowly changing as inflation is slow to react to the current tariffs imposed. Experts currently advise that a July rate cut is highly unlikely due to the strong employment data. However, the possibility of a September rate cut is increasing and is supporting demand for Gold.
Furthermore, Deutsche Bank, whilst talking to journalists, warned of summer volatility, driven by tariff risks, low liquidity, and political uncertainty around the August 1st deadline. This is yet to have a negative impact on stocks, but the market’s cautiousness is likely supporting demand for Gold.
Tariffs and The US Dollar
The dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and uncertainty regarding the trade policy is resulting in a weaker US Dollar. The US Dollar Index fell to a weekly low and is not showing signs of maintaining bullish momentum. As a result, the US Dollar’s weakness supports Gold, which is inversely correlated with the Dollar.
The global uncertainties also continue to support Gold prices, which act as a safe haven asset for investors and institutions. Reports show that global central banks, particularly China, Russia, Turkey and BRIC nations, continue to increase their exposure away from the US Dollar. The next 8 days leading up to the August 1st deadline will be key for Gold traders.
Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis
Gold on Tuesday is decreasing in value, giving up some gains from Monday. However, the decline is only forming a retracement and so far is only 33% of the bullish impulse wave from yesterday. The average retracement size is 0.90% which would mean the instrument still has room to manoeuvere based on the traditional retracement size. On many occasions, the price will retrace back to the breakout level. The breakout size can be seen at $3,374.55.
Nonetheless, traders should note that the price is trading clearly higher than the trendline and the key moving averages. Currently, Gold is trading below the VWAP, meaning the price is seeing bearish momentum, but also at a competitive price to buy.
https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart
Key Takeaway Levels:
* Gold entered a confirmed bullish trend, forming three higher highs driven by strong momentum from July 21st.
* The Fed takes a dovish turn, as comments from Governor Waller and uncertainty weaken the Dollar and increase Gold demand.
* Tariff risks and global uncertainty, including a cautious market ahead of the August 1st deadline, are fueling gold buying. Central banks are also diversifying away from the USD, adding to the demand.
* Technical signals remain supportive, with gold holding above key trendlines and averages. The retracement from Tuesday appears mild and could present new buying opportunities.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#216
Jul 23, 2025 4:51am Jul 23, 2025 4:51am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 23rd July 2025.

Nikkei225 Surges on US-Japan Trade Deal: Can the Rally Hold?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...atured_DLxG792

President Trump confirms that US and Japanese negotiators have agreed on a trade deal that covers more than just the reciprocal trade tariffs imposed by the US. As a result, the NIKKEI225 increased 4.45%, the strongest bullish price movement since April 10th 2025. Can the NIKKEI225 maintain the current bullish momentum?
US-Japan Trade Deal
On July 22nd, President Trump informed journalists that the US and Japan have agreed on a trade deal after weeks of negotiations. Previously, the NIKKEI225’s price momentum was muted by fear of trade tariffs and trade clashes with the US. Over the past 2 weeks the White House advised they were aiming for 25% tariffs on Japan and other Asian countries.
Instead of 25% reciprocal tariffs on Japanese imports, the US will impose a 15% rate, which is significantly lower than the initial proposal. In return, there will be $550 billion worth of Japanese investments in the US, with 90% of the returns returning to American stakeholders. The two countries also confirm a joint venture on liquefied natural gas from Alaska. However, a negative factor for Japan continues to be the Steel and Aluminium tariffs, which will remain at 50%.
The deal provides much-needed relief for the Japanese economy and stocks. Particularly, the car industry. Toyota stocks are currently surging 14% during this morning’s session.
Can The NIKKEI225 Maintain Its Bullish Momentum?
The NIKKEI225 rose 4.45% forming a bullish breakout and increasing to its highest level since July 17th 2025. On smaller timeframes, such as the 15-minute chart, the RSI and other oscillators are indicating an overbought price. The price has also lost momentum since the opening of the EU session.
However, investors should note that an increase of 4.50% is not out of character for the NIKKEI225. The last time the index saw a similar increase was on April 10th, where the price rose more than 9.00%, almost double the current increase. Therefore, upward price movement remains possible despite overbought indications on smaller timeframes. However, it is vital for bullish momentum to be regained.
Traders should also note that the price is not at an all-time high despite the magnitude of the recent bullish price movement. The all-time high remains 2.70% higher than the current price. This level is a known resistance level, and traders should be cautious of its psychological edge over investors. Though a further increase is needed to reach this level.
Yen and BOJ Supports NIKKEI225 Growth
Other positive factors for the Nikkei 225 include a weaker yen and no rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. The yen has declined following upper house elections, where the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition failed to secure 50 of 124 seats, its second straight defeat after losing the lower house last fall.
While Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains in power, his minority government now depends on opposition support for economic action, which experts say will be challenging. Ishiba has stated he will stay in office until a US trade deal is finalised, which it now has been.
Lastly, the Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates in six months. This is despite earlier expert expectations that the policy rate would rise to 1.00%. The lack of interest rate hikes supports the NIKKEI225. However, technical analysts will be keen for the instrument to rise above 41240.50 in order for buy signals to return.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNIKKEI225 12-Hour Chart

Key Takeaway Points

President Trump confirmed a trade deal with Japan, reducing proposed tariffs from 25% to 15%. This is sparking a 4.45% surge in the Nikkei 225, which rises to its highest level in 2025.
Despite the strong breakout, technical indicators show overbought conditions on small timeframes. Buy signals remain for the medium-term.
A declining yen and the Bank of Japan’s six-month pause on rate hikes continue to support the Nikkei 225.
Toyota stocks increase by more than 14% and Japan’s car industry rebounds as a trade deal is agreed.

#217
Jul 24, 2025 8:45am Jul 24, 2025 8:45am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 24th July 2025.

SNP500 Hits New Highs Backed by Strong Earnings and Trade Optimism.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...b178023dbd0a53

The SNP500 again renews its all-time highs after finding support from Alphabet stocks, NVIDIA, JP Morgan and Broadcom. The SNP500 is now trading 8.40% higher in 2025, more or less matching the performance of the NASDAQ. The main driver of the current upward trend is recent quarterly earnings reports and the US-Japan trade deal.

Alphabet Quarterly Earnings Report
There were both positive and negative data from Alphabet’s earnings report, but the stock rose 1.72% after market close. The quarterly report showed the company’s revenue and operating income rose 14%, cloud revenue 32% and the earnings per share rose 22% to $2.31. The figures continue to beat projections, which is one of the reasons why the stock has risen 1.72% and more than 14% over the past month.

Google Cloud revenue rose 32% to $13.6 billion, driven by strong growth in core GCP products, AI infrastructure, and generative AI solutions. AI remains a key driver, with Alphabet’s Gemini model now integrated across its cloud services and productivity tools. Although still behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT in user adoption, Gemini is helping Alphabet attract more enterprise clients.

In addition to this, the search figures also remain steady and within the projected range. According to the report, Google searches make up approximately 90% of the global searches. However, one of the main negatives from the report is AI spending compared to ROI (return on investment).

Alphabet reported $22.4 billion in capital spending, well above the $18.2 billion expected. It also raised its 2025 capex forecast from $75 billion to $85 billion, highlighting its aggressive investment in data centres, AI chips, and infrastructure. If the return on investment from AI products read higher, experts believe the stock increase would have been higher than the current rise. Nonetheless, the increase continues to support the NASDAQ.

SNP500 Components and Stocks
Of the SNP500’s most influential 15 stocks, 74% rose in value on Wednesday. In addition to this, the VIX index continues to decline, as does the Put and Call Ratio. All these factors provide strong buy signals for the SNP500 and stocks in general. The main stocks, bar Alphabet stocks, which are supporting the recent upward price movements, are NVIDIA, Broadcom and JP Morgan.

NVIDIA is the most influential stock for the SNP500, holding a weight of more than 7.00%. NVIDIA stocks rose 2.25% on Wednesday and a further 1.20% after market close. Broadcom stocks, which hold a weight of 2.33%, are one of the best-performing stocks on Thursday.

Both the technology sector and banking stocks continue to perform well while defensive stocks underperform due to the ‘risk-on’ appetite of the market. The higher investor sentiment is mainly being prompted by the US-Japan trade deal.

SNP500 Technical Analysis

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png

SNP500 5-Minute Chart

The SNP500 continues to form higher highs and higher lows, ensuring the wave ensuing continues to point to an upward trend. The price also remains above the trend-line, the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. However, the price is trading below the day’s VWAP, and order flow currently points towards limited buy demand.

For this reason, the outlook for the SNP500 remains bullish, but bullish momentum needs to be regained. European PMI reports from earlier this morning read positively, if the global PMI data continues to beat expectations, bullish momentum may gain speed. The price is also close to the 200-bar EMA, which can act as a support level. Traders will monitor if the price bounces off this level.

Key Takeaway Points:

The SNP500 hits new all-time highs, driven by Alphabet, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and JP Morgan.
Alphabet’s earnings beat forecasts, with strong cloud growth and steady search performance boosting investor confidence.
Capital spending rose to $22.4B, with AI investments raising concerns over return on investment.
Technical Analysis remain bullish, but momentum needs to recover; global PMI data could reignite buying pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#218
Jul 25, 2025 5:14am Jul 25, 2025 5:14am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 25th July 2025.

Euro Strength Persists Amid ECB’s Temporary Policy Pause.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...c600dfbf7ee9ce
The best-performing currency of 2025 is the Euro and continues to gain after the European Central Bank’s rate decision. After the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the currency rose in value against all currencies. This also includes the Australian Dollar, which has seen the strongest gains this week so far. Why is the Euro witnessing strong gains despite multiple rate cuts, and what has the ECB said about the Euro’s strength?

The Euro's Gains In 2025
The best-performing currencies in 2025 have been the Euro and Swiss Franc, which have both seen multiple rate cuts. Traditionally, currencies witnessing a dovish monetary policy tend to experience a weakening currency. So what is different here?

The main reasons for the bullish price movement fall into three categories:

European Fiscal Policy
Portfolio Flow and Euro Hedges
US Dollar Weakness

These three factors are overpowering the negative impact of the lower interest rates. The European Union in 2025 has changed its fiscal policy rules related to borrowing and stimulus programs related to defence spending. Most investors deem this as a turn towards a fiscal expansionary policy while not triggering budget deficit concerns. One of the stimulus fund programs which are in the spotlight is the $500 billion German Fund, which aims to boost infrastructure and defence.

In addition to this, global investors are looking to spread the risk of overexposure to US equities. As a result, the natural alternatives are European stocks such as the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and CAC. As interest in these stocks grows, demand for the euro increases as well. Furthermore, companies still investing in US indices are now using the Euro to hedge against the risks of a weakening Dollar, which could result in gains from the original investment. Previously, due to Dollar's strength, this was not practised with US Equity Investments.

European Equity demand and euro-hedge positions are also increasing the demand for the Euro, and this also ties in with a weaker US Dollar. The US Dollar is currently the weakest currency of 2025, declining more than 9.50%. The main concern for investors is the trade policy uncertainty and the worsening US fiscal deficit. Investors are turning to the Euro as an alternative.

The Euro Central Bank’s Rate Decision and Press Conference

As European inflation is under control, the European Central Bank is likely to continue cutting interest rates in 2025. The main reason for the pause is uncertainty before the trade negotiations deadline on August 1st. Due to this, the ECB opted to keep the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%.

President Lagarde noted that although inflation expectations are ‘firmly anchored’ near 2%, there are risks in both directions. Investors also note that the ECB President voiced concern over the risk of the Euro becoming too expensive and its domino effect on the economy. Many experts believe this also indicates the ECB would like to cut by at least a further two occasions.

EURNZD - Technical Analysis and Major Gains

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngEURNZD 4-Hour Chart

The Euro is witnessing its strongest gains against the New Zealand Dollar. The EURNZD fell to a key support level and also formed a double bottom. As a result, the Euro quickly gained bullish momentum and continued to rise on Friday.

The price of the EURNZD is trading above the 75-bar EMA and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. In addition to this, the exchange has been forming higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. Moreover, the exchange rate remains below the major resistance levels while maintaining momentum. Resistance levels can currently be seen at 1.95830 and 1.96475.

Key Takeaway Points:

The Euro is 2025's top-performing currency, gaining despite multiple ECB rate cuts.
Strong European fiscal policy and stimulus programs are boosting investor confidence in the Euro.
Investors are shifting to European equities and using the Euro to hedge against a weakening US Dollar.
The ECB held rates at 2.15% but signalled more interest rate cuts in 2025.

#219
Jul 28, 2025 2:32pm Jul 28, 2025 2:32pm

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 28th July 2025.

Markets Rally as US-EU Tariff Deal Calms Trade War Fears.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...rope2_Featured
Financial markets and policymakers are cautiously optimistic that the feared economic fallout from Liberation Day may not fully materialise. Expectations of weak growth and surging inflation have started to ease, while optimism is building that trade tensions may be less damaging than anticipated. However, uncertainty remains elevated, with the August 1 tariff deadline fast approaching.

Although we’re not out of the woods yet, recent developments suggest the path forward could be less volatile. The range of potential tariff outcomes has narrowed, and active trade negotiations are gradually clearing the fog. Still, the global economy continues to navigate a ‘wait-and-see’ landscape, and this week’s calendar is packed with central bank meetings, critical data releases, earnings reports, and bond supply that will shape investor sentiment.

US-EU Trade Agreement: A Fragile Truce
Over the weekend, the United States and the European Union struck a much-anticipated trade deal, agreeing to implement a 15% levy on a wide range of European exports, including autos. The outcome aligns closely with previous warnings from Brussels, offering a sense of relief that the standoff did not escalate further.

The EU had prepared countermeasures that may have targeted US services—an area where the US runs a strong surplus with the bloc—but those plans came too late to influence the negotiations. Critics argue that Brussels should have taken a firmer approach earlier in the process. However, in the end, EU officials prioritised swift resolution and market stability, which now appears to have been the right call—equity markets surged to four-month highs following the announcement.

As part of the agreement, the EU also pledged to purchase $750 billion in US energy products—a bold commitment considering the region’s recent pivot away from Russian gas toward US LNG. The bloc also committed to buying more US military equipment, in line with recent arms support agreements for Ukraine and NATO cooperation. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the new deal prevents the average effective US tariff rate from rising to 18%, keeping it at a more manageable 16%.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...9.original.png

Market Reaction: Risk Appetite Improves
Equity markets responded positively to the news. The Euro Stoxx 50 posted a 0.6% gain, while the DAX lagged slightly but still closed higher. Southern European indices like the MIB and IBEX led the region’s rally. US futures also pointed higher, buoyed by the improved trade outlook.

In Asia, Chinese stocks ended the day in the green, reflecting hopes that Washington and Beijing will extend their current trade truce. The Nikkei, however, slipped more than 1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 edged down by 0.1%. In bond markets, eurozone yields declined as investors digested cautious commentary from ECB officials, while US Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year rate approaching 4.40%.

FX Markets: Dollar Gains on Trade Optimism
Currency markets reflected the surge in risk appetite and the recalibration of rate expectations. The US dollar gained 0.6% intraday, with the DXY index trading near 98.26. The euro weakened against the greenback, dropping 0.8% to 1.166, a move likely welcomed by European exporters and policymakers, as a softer currency helps offset some of the tariff impact.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...6.original.png

Sterling outperformed earlier in the session but later pulled back, with GBPUSD correcting to 1.34. Meanwhile, the dollar gained ground against the franc and yen, rising 0.8% versus the Swiss franc and 0.5% against the yen, bringing USDJPY to 148.39.

Commodities: Oil Climbs, Gold Eases
Oil prices moved higher in tandem with stocks, as the trade agreement boosted global demand expectations. WTI rose 1.3% to $66.01 per barrel, while Brent gained 1.2% to $69.28. Investors now await further developments in US-China talks scheduled later today, with hopes that both sides will agree to extend their current truce.

Gold prices were largely steady after a pre-weekend dip driven by stronger dollar sentiment and fading rate-cut bets. With the tariff deal confirmed and markets adjusting to tighter policy guidance, gold slipped modestly to $3,336.21 per ounce. Silver and copper also posted minor declines, down 0.15% and 0.28%, respectively. Copper prices, however, remain elevated ahead of a planned 50% tariff on US copper imports, set to take effect August 1.

ECB Stays on Hold, Keeps Options Open
The European Central Bank kept interest rates steady, with President Lagarde signalling that policymakers will retain flexibility ahead of the September meeting. While inflation fears have receded slightly, Lagarde made it clear that rate cuts are not guaranteed and that future decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data and geopolitical developments.

Her message was echoed by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who warned against assuming a rate cut is imminent. He emphasised that only clear signs of labour market weakness would justify further easing. While recent inflation data is reassuring, Kazimir stressed the importance of vigilance, particularly in light of potential supply chain disruptions that could reignite price pressures.

Outlook: Trade Relief Is Welcome, But Uncertainty Persists
The US-EU trade agreement has provided temporary relief to markets, reducing tariff risks and boosting investor sentiment. Yet the broader picture remains uncertain. The August 1 deadline still looms, geopolitical tensions persist, and monetary policy paths are far from settled.

As the global economy enters a critical phase, traders and investors will continue to monitor developments in trade policy, central bank decisions, and macroeconomic data. For now, markets are breathing a little easier—but the long-term trajectory is still unfolding.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

#220
Jul 29, 2025 5:48am Jul 29, 2025 5:48am

HFMarkets
Joined Mar 2024 | Status: Trader | 383 Posts

Date: 29th July 2025.

All Eyes on the US: FOMC, Jobs Report, Earnings and Treasury Supply Dominate a Pivotal Week.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...e=us3_featured
It’s shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks of the year for US markets, with virtually every major catalyst on the docket. From the FOMC decision and the July employment report to Treasury borrowing forecasts, corporate earnings, and key economic data releases, traders face a flood of information that could significantly sway bonds, equities, and the US dollar.

Yet, with so many variables in play, clarity may remain elusive. The overlapping crosscurrents could result in choppy and indecisive trading as investors attempt to digest the implications for monetary policy, growth, and inflation expectations heading into the final months of 2025.

Fed Expected to Hold Steady, But Watch for Dissent
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the consensus is firmly aligned around a pause in interest rates. Policymakers have consistently characterised the US economy as resilient and the labour market as solid—two factors that continue to justify patience on rate adjustments.

However, inflation has cooled further in recent months, and concerns over slowing global demand and one-time tariff impacts have emboldened some officials. Notably, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have expressed dovish leanings, calling for a rate cut at this meeting—a position that puts them at odds with the broader committee.

While FOMC dissents from governors are rare, both Waller and Bowman have already defied consensus in recent decisions. Waller previously opposed the decision to slow quantitative tightening, and Bowman dissented in September 2024, favouring a smaller 25 bp cut instead of the 50 bp move that was implemented. If both break ranks again this week, it would mark the first dual governor dissent since 1993, underscoring the growing debate within the Fed.

Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will be closely watched for signals on whether the central bank is preparing to shift its tone ahead of the next meeting in September. Markets are already pricing in a near 50/50 chance of a rate cut that month.

July Jobs Report in Focus as Labour Market Remains Resilient
The July nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, will be a crucial input into the Fed’s September decision. Expectations point to a 120,000 job increase, a modest gain compared to previous months but still indicative of a labour market that is not deteriorating rapidly.

Private payrolls are projected to rise by 100,000 after a 74,000 gain in June, while factory jobs are expected to hold flat following a 7,000 loss. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 4.2% from 4.1%, as the labour market adjusts to sector-specific layoffs and restructuring—particularly from companies undergoing so-called DOGE cuts, where severance packages have delayed the appearance of actual unemployment.

Wage growth is likely to continue at a moderate pace. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual rate ticking up slightly to 3.8% from 3.7%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.2 hours for a second straight month.

With another jobs report due before the September 16–17 FOMC meeting, the Fed will be watching closely to determine whether inflation remains subdued and whether labour market softness justifies a preemptive rate cut to stay ahead of a potential economic slowdown.

Markets Price in Fall Rate Cuts
Despite the expected hold this week, Fed funds futures are leaning toward a September rate cut. The October contract implies roughly 27 basis points of easing, while the December contract reflects nearly 44 bps in total cuts by year-end.

That positioning underscores investor sensitivity to Powell’s tone on Wednesday. Any signs of softening—whether in the statement, the vote tally, or during the press conference—could fuel expectations for more aggressive easing later this year.

Although the Fed has been cautious not to overcommit, the combination of slowing inflation, moderating wage growth, and global uncertainties is making the case for flexibility stronger. Powell may not open the door wide to cuts just yet, but even a small rhetorical shift could move markets.

Other Key Catalysts: GDP, ISM, PCE, and Big Tech Earnings
In addition to the Fed and labour market data, traders must also navigate a wave of critical releases. The second-quarter Advance GDP print, Employment Cost Index (ECI), PCE chain prices, and the ISM manufacturing report all offer insight into the strength of the US economy and inflation dynamics.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is set to release Q3 and Q4 borrowing estimates, as well as details of the August refunding schedule—an event that could influence bond yields and market liquidity.

On the corporate front, earnings season continues in full swing, with Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft among the headline names reporting this week. The results from Big Tech could add volatility, especially if they reveal caution on consumer trends or AI-related capex.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Week for the Fed and Financial Markets
With the FOMC meeting, labour data, inflation indicators, Treasury supply, and earnings all on the calendar, this week could shape market direction for weeks to come. The Fed is expected to hold, but the potential for rare dovish dissents adds an element of intrigue.

As the data rolls, and Powell addresses the press, traders will be seeking any clue on whether a September rate cut is truly on the table. Until then, expect volatility, uncertainty, and plenty of positioning as markets attempt to digest a whirlwind of economic signals.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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