Trading Made Simple(r)

@RobinHood

Thank you for this post.

It serves as reminder that helping the community in Forex Factory is a thankless job we do everyday.

...

Hello again everyone!
For anyone looking for something interesting, I've done quite a bit of work on an indicator for Tradingview that does a lot of heavy lifting for this.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/7...ce-Oscillator/

It's script heavy, but does a lot of work. Combining RSI/SMI/stochastics, on two timeframes, with a histogram to generate alerts (if you want), or just to use as a visual reference. There are a lot of inputs, so experiment and have some fun with it. The trades are in there, your job is to find them.

And, if you're really feeling lazy, here is essentially the same tool, but combined with the offset MA cross indicator I shared earlier, that plots onto the chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/3...luence-Filter/

This one also plots signals for continuation trades, and you have the option to also show weak confluence signals. Again, script heavy, but it's a whole lot of tools in one, as well as being a MTF tool that has some intelligence to automatically use a HTF for confluence.

These aren't foolproof, but have worked for me thus far. Feedback welcome, but I'm not here to tell you how to use it, i.e. Use at your own risk. I made these for myself, but am okay sharing here for now.

Have fun!

Thanks so much RobinHood,
Finding consistency with post 10,486 and 10,494 on EURJPY and USDCAD. Takes a lot patience and I miss trades but seeing the consistency.

[idézet=sclay115;15299892]{idézet} Ez egy érdekes indikátor. Jól gondolom, hogy a 4 TF HA a HA gyertyák négy különálló idősíkjának sávállapotát/típusát mutatja? Ha igen, megvan hozzá az MQ4 fájlod? És milyen idősíkokat használsz, ha az M30-on kereskedsz? Köszönöm![/idézet]
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/802725-4-tf-ha
I don't need larger timeframes, what I need to know is 4 TF Ha shows. I look at M5, then I start the trade when the color of the M5 candle is the same as the direction I chose (green for long, red for short).

Traded GJ today, trying to keep simple. Maybe I am luckly with JPY pairs currently but taking one trade at a time repeating it mechanically-

Good job on that trade!

"Luck is When Preparation Meets Opportunity"

Are you referring to the indicator circled in yellow?

Yes, thank you. I appreciate it.

Another day: EURJPY loss from yesterday, was not available to take something off the position. USDCAD today, I think this is the quickest.
Slowly and steady

USDCAD M30

What stung President Trump? The dollar is under the frog's butt!

Could you kindly share a screenshot that includes the 4-hour timeframe?
I'm also eager to learn from you, and having the full view will make it easier for the experts in the topic to review and help us identify any mistakes.

Hi @Robinhood,
Hi @Emmanuel7788,

Thank you for your continuous and selfless effort, this thread & method.

After multiple years of screwing around - being misguided, this thread pushed me into consistent profitability. I have backtested this method, manually, well over 2000 trades now - my wrist tendons are inflamed solely because of the number of times I clicked 'next bar' in simulators. I am passing prop firm challenges (10% profit) in sim time and time again, and have now moved to live - where it is going well!

I really, really want to express my utmost thanks.


Overview:
- solely trading DAX (London session)
- 5 minute timeframe
- only continuation trades
- setup, will post picture below to show current setup
- it consistently takes me about 32 business days to hit 10%
- frequency of setup: 1.3 / 2 days
- winrate ranging from 50-60%
- minimum 2RRR

I have tweaked the system a bit to include: strict EMA (50>200>800) alignment, pivot levels (for profit taking), SnD (for profit taking).
Edit 3: Google sheet addition: I have a fully formulated trading plan that is quite a bit more expansive than what I've written down here. Feel free to pm me if you'd like it.

I don't look at any other charts, I do everything on the 5minute.

Template example:




Question:

1. Choppy markets:
   1. The one location I don't do well is during choppy markets, I just thread water there. I have read in some previous posts (read till 400 somewhere, rest on the to-do) that you just dont trade non-ranging markets. How do you identify these early enough?
   2. What timeframe & method would you use to identify a trending / non-trending asset?
   3. If I'd move away from DAX during non-trending periods, are there other instruments that you would recommend?

   
   
   
   
   

1. Frequency of trades:
   1. While the profit is doing well enough, I feel that my frequency of trades is a tad too low - at 1.3/2days. While it goes well enough, I feel it would be good to raise this frequency. Am I a lunatic for trying to force this and should I just be happy with what I get?
      1. AND/OR expand to another timeframe? (Testing with this had amazing results on the 1min, but also very reliant on market environment.. seemingly too much so).
      2. AND/OR expand to another instrument?

      
      

Edit 4: While writing, and some nightless days - I looked into some approaches that may pay off, perhaps you have a view on them?

1. Utilize VDAX (VIX equivalent for DAX) to signal subdued periods sub VDAX 20 / 18.
2. During these periods, I utilize MTF framing. Looking if the daily candle breaks former HiLo OR if it turns inwards - before engaging any trades.
3. During low VDAX period I change Trailing-SL management from 13ema following to 13 ema following with exits if a heikin ashi candle fips colour and closes 'convincingly' against me. I go back in if it flips again.
4. During low VDAX period, I lower the significance of 5min blockers such as SnD zones. They are less reliable due to chopnoise and the market is eager to take any proper break. Targets instead become based on 30min SnD / EMAs (50>200>800). And 5min continuations against the 30min trend 'but with' the daily trend can be taken. (In non low VDAX periods I only take full 5min EMA alignment continuation trades.)
5. Much more focussed on letting the daily break HiLo and guide my direction, rather than the EMAs on 5min.

Once again, thanks a lot - you had an unreal impact on me!


I was unsure whether to post some manual mt4 simulator equity curves below, to show to people that it does work. It's worth it.


Kind regards,
Bob


Edit 1: sentence edit
Edit 2: sentence edit
Edit 3: google sheet addition
Edit 4: current approach being tested

I will add it on the next trades I post. However, I do not consider 4H in my process. I just do everything on m15 though sometimes I look at H1 but really it doesn't influence what I do.

Also, thanks for the kind words, I will however suggest strongly reading RohinHood comments (9,470, 9,963, 9966, 10,494, 10,486, 10,556) and I like to look at his pictures. I only look for continuation trades for now. RH has recommend continuations alot and I was like okay let me even do it.

When I have enough data, I will still look at my trades for how to exit properly for TP and SL. For now, just going mechanically so that I do not complicate simple rules.

From Tuesday
EURJPY Loss: I was not awake for partials and was in drawdown wanted to exit once blue line crossed 50 on stoch but left it

Trades from yesterday
EURJPY win but I went in too soon instead of waiting for the candle close.
USDCAD: Loss on the short
NAS100: Long, entered early

Today's trade so far:
USDCAD

Hi, welcome to the thread.

I am pleased to hear that you are doing well with your trading, and that I have helped you along on your path to trading success.

You have a lot of questions of which it would take me far too long to answer all of them thoroughly, so I will be as brief as possible.

I would highly suggest that you finish reading the thread as I believe that doing so would be very helpful to you, and also answer some of your questions.

Choppy markets:

1. I now ONLY trade: Trend > Pullback > Resumption of the trend. Aka = Continuation Trades.
2. In that you only trade 5 min. charts, I would also watch the 15 min. and the 1 hr.
3. I would day trade the SPY or the NQ, but not both. My personal preference is the SPY. Otherwise, I would trade the ES Futures or the NQ Futures.

Frequency of trades:

1. If what you are doing is working, I would just increase my bet size. Otherwise, I day trade the SPY every day and I tend to get about 1-4 trades each day, trading it the way that I do.

I like day trading the 2 min. time frame the best, while simultaneously watching the 5 and 15 min. charts. And, most often, I only day trade the market for the first 2.5 hours (NYSE Open - 9:30 to 12:00 EST) .

"While writing, and some nightless days - I looked into some approaches that may pay off, perhaps you have a view on them?"

1. I don't watch the VIX and never have.
2. I watch: Yesterday's Close, Today's Open, the premarket high and low, the 15 min. ORB (Opening Rang Breakout) and Pivot Points.
3. That's good.
4. I don't "actively" watch for S&D Zones.
5. I am "aware" of the Daily high and low but I give them very little consideration.

If I could go back and start my trading journey all over, there is only one way that I would trade.

I would ONLY Long Bull Flags and I would ONLY Short Bear Flags (during trends), because after all, when trading them the way I do, they are just Continuation Trades.

BTW, a 50-60% win rate at a minimum of 1:2 R:R is fantastic!

For those of you who are using the RSO (RobinHood Stochastics Oscillator) I would HIGHLY suggest that you at minimum add the "50" line to it, but ideally, I would mimic what I have done to the RSO in the image below. Why? If you do it, the "lightbulb in your head" will eventually "turn on" and you'll see "why".

The RSO horizontal line settings from "top to bottom" are:

90
80
70

55
50
45

30
20
10

Let this be a "learning" moment because if you are still struggling to find consistent trading success, here's my one best way for you to find it.

First of all, trading successfully is a "game of patience". Trust me on this. It's one of the main reasons for a trader's lack of being consistently profitable.

Unprofitable traders are IMPATIENT, they over trade, they don't wait for the right entries, they exit winning trades too soon, and losing trades too late, etc. etc. etc.

YOU ARE THE REASON WHY YOU ARE FAILING.

Think of trading like a having job, where you have rules and a boss. IF you broke as many rules at your job as you do at trading, how long would it be before you got fired??? So, in trading, and when getting fired for breaking the rules, either way - you get no paycheck.

In Post #10,756, I wrote:

"If I could go back and start my trading journey all over, there is only one way that I would trade.

I would ONLY Long Bull Flags and I would ONLY Short Bear Flags (during trends), because after all, when trading them the way I do, they are just Continuation Trades."

There are 2 trades that I am pointing out in the image below:


Trade #1

1. Now you can see "why" I have the 2 lines "bracketing" the 50 Line in the RSO (Post #10,757). If I had of waited for the Orange RSO line to dip below 50 and start back up, I would have missed the trade (of which I took this morning).

2. The purple line in the RSO is ABOVE the 80 green dotted line, indicating a strong trend.

3. Notice the white line on the chart. That's a BULL FLAG.

Trade #2

1. The purple line in the RSO is ABOVE the 80 green dotted line, indicating a strong trend.

2. The Orange RSO line dipped below 50 and started back up ABOVE it.

3. Notice the white line on the chart. That's a BULL FLAG.

4. It's a "legit" Continuation Trade.

Note: I did not take Trade #2 as it was the wrong time of the day for me to day trade - about 2:20 p.m.


Do you want to almost instantly become a consistently successful trader? Here's how:

PRINT THE CHART (above) and place it on a wall in front of you where you trade and ONLY make trades when they look like the 2 trades in the image above, and place your Stop - 1 to 2 bars back or at the most recent swing low (or high when Short) *Yeah, I know, lots of people trade on their phones, but you still get the point.

-----------------

Now, for those of you who are wondering "WHY" I don't have my "usual" ema's on the chart. Here's why.

I really like the using the ema's that I normally use - 3, 8, 21, 34, 55 (and sometimes the 100 or 200 ema). *The 100 ema is on the chart above - It's the thick blue line.

I also really like using the 34 ema "RoadMap". (I also like using the 18 or 21 ema's for the Roadmap, it typically comes down to which ones look best going backwards on a particular chart.

But using all of those ema's together at the same time was a visual nightmare.

So I realized a while back that that "broadly speaking", the 34 ema, high - somewhat mimicked the 21 ema, close - and the 34 ema, low - somewhat mimicked the 55 ema, close (on the chart above I am using the 21 ema RoadMap).

And regarding the 8 ema not being on the chart, the light blue and orange dots pretty much mimic the 8 ema, so I don't use it on this template.

At as we sometimes say here in the USA, "It's close enough for government work".

RH, thanks for excelent post above.

Have you changed RSO parameters lately?
I am asking because both stochs look not a bit different than mine, both of them look dramatically different than mine.
I try to replicate them and i have to use 7,3,3, and 38,5,3 to have more or less the same like on your screenshot.

You're welcome. That's a good question you've asked.

I have change one of the Stochastics based on Artificial Intelligence's (ChatGPT) answer when I asked it what are the best settings to use (and I posted about it here in the forum when I did it although I may not have mentioned the 8,3,3 because nothing about it was changed or suggested to change it).

It recommended that I keep the 8,3,3 that I was using and it said to lower the longer length Stochastic to 34, 10, 3.

And both should still be set to exponential and to only use the %D lines.