I totally agree with you 100% on the Patience and Emotional part but i follow the Fundamental part of trading as well to add to my confluence..Thanks for this Thread.
Trade what you see NOT what you expect
- View Post
- Hidden for breach of Trader Code of Conduct
- View Post
- Hidden for breach of Trader Code of Conduct
Prop Firm - TripleXXX 10% Target All Time Return:
10.2%
- #36,812
- Last Post: Jul 6, 2025 1:23pm Jul 6, 2025 1:23pm
This Title, "Trade what you see" is misleading.
First, if I zoom any chart, I see a different story, the same if I zoom out at max.
Second, if price of any pair go up, you see it but you don't know the reason. You buy what you see?. You look at some technical levels, tops, range zones, extreme zones and many other stuff. With every new indicator or pattern, you will see a different story. Erase all and the story change.
Only way to trade what you see is to find the reason WHY we see an move up or down.
Here is the real story. Why is the question to answer for a good trade.
Why Gold is up and will go more, Why the Dollar go down when all the people who don't know why is falling try to buy it at every level they think it a good level.
Trade what you find out is going to happen in the future, not based on the past moves.
The past help only for technical levels for Stop Loss and Take Profit, the length of the trade, the risk and all that.
On charts, you see the expectations from the past till today. If tomorrow change today expectation on any given reason, everything will change fast and you will adjust your expectations, your trades, if any, everything changes. That why the market its random, even the past pattern look like can be predicted, no one will be sure 100% that will be the future, cos the nobody know the future.
Today, AI is the king, cos he can adjust so fast for the change. What looks today a good sell trade, can be in few hours a god buy trade.
Trade what you see works only in a automatic mode, in a very small targets based only on patterns that can be find (with sharp mind) and no emotions.
Trade what you see, today, it s old story, like any other pattern. I believe, more than 98% of today trades are automatic. No emotions.
Most of today winning trades have one rule:
Follow the Big Shark. End of story.
If you can spot with your mind, not with eyes, what Big Sharks are doing, then you are a winner, if you start to question why they do that, why they break a level and you oppose, you are lost.
You will never know why in real time. You can find with luck sometime in the future, why they do what they do. Only here Trade what you see it's a good strategy, to not question to much why something unthinkable it's happening.
I think The Trend is your Friend is more appropriate tehnic, and only based on what market say from now in the future. Like I sad, the past tell only tehnical places for your trades, not the future direction, not the reason for the direction, nothing.
The Big Shark don't care about that, they create the market.
Find and follow what they say and do.
How to find that? Not so simple but a start is to read the news and understand it. See what are the reactions after many news, what is the bias, who can you trust, who are the Big Shark. What is the main story on this period of time. The time is very important. Today and this summer can be a way and if some bombs fall somewhere, things can change. Or not. Read and thing about all. What they say, what market say. Follow the money it's another way to combine news with the charts to spot the real deal. Trump saying a thing, market go in a different direction. That mean is saying something that you don't get it, but you can spot that on the market. Combine the information with markets and you find the big shark moves and the real direction for a given time period.
In the end, what you see now is what they already are doing. You need to find out if you are with them, in that direction and to spot the moment if they change their minds. That is difficult if your mind has a bias.
One simple example. Take the war. Trump vs Europe. Dollar vs Euro. Most of us asked after last NFP why the dollar is still down on a good news. Answer: Cos the Europe has more problems today with a weak Euro than Trump with a weak Dollar. Europe is still a great ally. Euro need to go up in this period from many reasons. I don't know how much and where will stop and if this will be the trend. If something will change in the future, I will change my view after I see that story is in the market. In correlation with words.
That why trade what you see, don t tell the future, tell only the past where you apply some patterns and you hope to see a repetition.
If you say - I hope, you lose.
Say, I think I find the direction for a predictable future and I will risk according to my risk strategy, for that period and ...
I don't hope. I place my bet. For us, retail traders, it's more like a game. I have friends that are now very rich cos they bet on 2010 - 12 on Bitcoin. Was a bet. A small bet based on a fundamental story. This Digital staff, someday, will replace the gold or the dollar. We see this now happening. i was not so impressed on that time. Was my mistake on judgement.
A retail trader it's a bunny. If you don't listen what the lions say about the future of the forest, you can end up food on their plates, like most of us.
If you listen ONLY the Lions of the jungle, you will see the forest with very different eyes.This Lions don't post there trades on Forex Factory.
On this forum and on every other forum, it's full of foxes. They predict trades in broker interets. If you see a guy who say I go long from here cos on m15 it's some story who give him a future profit, then ask yourself who is this guy and why he give for free this precious info. 90% it's a fox and 10% another bunny.
Trade what you see it's about past, and the past doesn't repeat exactly.
I watched this market more than 15 years. I don't eat from my trades even today cos I don't risk what I don t afford. I like to trade like I like to play chess. In time I become better on both. Now I'm around 1800 ELO on chess and I make steady profit on FX and I don't like to see people being fooled. I was in the same situation myself. That's the point of my post now. On a hot Sunday, over a beer.
First, if I zoom any chart, I see a different story, the same if I zoom out at max.
Second, if price of any pair go up, you see it but you don't know the reason. You buy what you see?. You look at some technical levels, tops, range zones, extreme zones and many other stuff. With every new indicator or pattern, you will see a different story. Erase all and the story change.
Only way to trade what you see is to find the reason WHY we see an move up or down.
Here is the real story. Why is the question to answer for a good trade.
Why Gold is up and will go more, Why the Dollar go down when all the people who don't know why is falling try to buy it at every level they think it a good level.
Trade what you find out is going to happen in the future, not based on the past moves.
The past help only for technical levels for Stop Loss and Take Profit, the length of the trade, the risk and all that.
On charts, you see the expectations from the past till today. If tomorrow change today expectation on any given reason, everything will change fast and you will adjust your expectations, your trades, if any, everything changes. That why the market its random, even the past pattern look like can be predicted, no one will be sure 100% that will be the future, cos the nobody know the future.
Today, AI is the king, cos he can adjust so fast for the change. What looks today a good sell trade, can be in few hours a god buy trade.
Trade what you see works only in a automatic mode, in a very small targets based only on patterns that can be find (with sharp mind) and no emotions.
Trade what you see, today, it s old story, like any other pattern. I believe, more than 98% of today trades are automatic. No emotions.
Most of today winning trades have one rule:
Follow the Big Shark. End of story.
If you can spot with your mind, not with eyes, what Big Sharks are doing, then you are a winner, if you start to question why they do that, why they break a level and you oppose, you are lost.
You will never know why in real time. You can find with luck sometime in the future, why they do what they do. Only here Trade what you see it's a good strategy, to not question to much why something unthinkable it's happening.
I think The Trend is your Friend is more appropriate tehnic, and only based on what market say from now in the future. Like I sad, the past tell only tehnical places for your trades, not the future direction, not the reason for the direction, nothing.
The Big Shark don't care about that, they create the market.
Find and follow what they say and do.
How to find that? Not so simple but a start is to read the news and understand it. See what are the reactions after many news, what is the bias, who can you trust, who are the Big Shark. What is the main story on this period of time. The time is very important. Today and this summer can be a way and if some bombs fall somewhere, things can change. Or not. Read and thing about all. What they say, what market say. Follow the money it's another way to combine news with the charts to spot the real deal. Trump saying a thing, market go in a different direction. That mean is saying something that you don't get it, but you can spot that on the market. Combine the information with markets and you find the big shark moves and the real direction for a given time period.
In the end, what you see now is what they already are doing. You need to find out if you are with them, in that direction and to spot the moment if they change their minds. That is difficult if your mind has a bias.
One simple example. Take the war. Trump vs Europe. Dollar vs Euro. Most of us asked after last NFP why the dollar is still down on a good news. Answer: Cos the Europe has more problems today with a weak Euro than Trump with a weak Dollar. Europe is still a great ally. Euro need to go up in this period from many reasons. I don't know how much and where will stop and if this will be the trend. If something will change in the future, I will change my view after I see that story is in the market. In correlation with words.
That why trade what you see, don t tell the future, tell only the past where you apply some patterns and you hope to see a repetition.
If you say - I hope, you lose.
Say, I think I find the direction for a predictable future and I will risk according to my risk strategy, for that period and ...
I don't hope. I place my bet. For us, retail traders, it's more like a game. I have friends that are now very rich cos they bet on 2010 - 12 on Bitcoin. Was a bet. A small bet based on a fundamental story. This Digital staff, someday, will replace the gold or the dollar. We see this now happening. i was not so impressed on that time. Was my mistake on judgement.
A retail trader it's a bunny. If you don't listen what the lions say about the future of the forest, you can end up food on their plates, like most of us.
If you listen ONLY the Lions of the jungle, you will see the forest with very different eyes.This Lions don't post there trades on Forex Factory.
On this forum and on every other forum, it's full of foxes. They predict trades in broker interets. If you see a guy who say I go long from here cos on m15 it's some story who give him a future profit, then ask yourself who is this guy and why he give for free this precious info. 90% it's a fox and 10% another bunny.
Trade what you see it's about past, and the past doesn't repeat exactly.
I watched this market more than 15 years. I don't eat from my trades even today cos I don't risk what I don t afford. I like to trade like I like to play chess. In time I become better on both. Now I'm around 1800 ELO on chess and I make steady profit on FX and I don't like to see people being fooled. I was in the same situation myself. That's the point of my post now. On a hot Sunday, over a beer.