Simple Daily System

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1186551601

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1186551708

OK now we have a considerable amount of past data...time to forward test......
pairs to watch for the next signal..

LONG
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
USD/JPY
CHF/JPY
CAD/JPY
AUD/JPY

SHORT
USD/CAD

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1186551843

If we allow for my judgement call in early May (anti-trade - no trade) . . .

February: 3 good trades
March: 3 good trades
April: 0 trades
May: 1 trade (and one anti-trend - "no trade" my call)
June: 0 (a tough month for trading AUD/USD with SIMPLE - trend looked so good too)
July: 2 good trades

More importantly . . . NO POOR TRADES! Amazing! Gotta admire that!

I have not compiled the gains/losses yet . . . however the basic RULES of SIMPLE are working just fine!!! . . . more than fine!!! And, we are staying away from crummy trades! Will complie the numbers in the AM (my local time) However, even taken qualitatively, the AUD/USD pairing looks to be more than acceptable for SIMPLE. In my estimation, we can add this pair to our list of profitable pairs to track and trade in the future.

Time for a siesta in California!

Warm Regards, K

hello people,
this one amount is made with an automatic translation program since English is not my mother tongue so be merciful with me.
trading 08.08 gb/usd
can be so terrible with a small trader live this.
3 got in at this contrary to my own ones regulate, I in cash, at least made up my mind in the gb/usd according to the second strategy traded by me this morning to set a sell limt at 2.0223 with sl 2.0253.
at the gb/usd I am this after an own analysis of the opinion better it is to get in at the third bar (see pictures tread 83).
but I my own regulate fallowly, did not get in and missed the beautiful downtrend (form 1) which had been possible for +30 pips.
so I traded my second strategy, which one, today, I a sell limt position opened upside trend (form 2) and have my sl auslöste.ich short time later so thrown out of 60 pips to the fenter within the 30 minutes.

result: breaks your own never regulate and you will gain
breaks now a beer with sorrow drink.
kittiman

I wouldn't say we have enough data, or the data we have is not analysed enough anyway. What about SL, TP for each pair? I don't think we (or I should say YOU guys, since I haven't contributed yet ) come up with anything there?

I will do some own testing now and get back to you guys.

Here are GBP/USD backtest from 1 Feb to 7 Aug with NF broker.
Total trades: 10
Winners: 9
Losers: 1

Total profit: +790 pips.

As for the losing trade..As you can see on the chart (March) this trade was not so clear as others because 20 EMA just crossed 50 down and we entered the market. But rules are rules and we have to follow them..If we didn't take that trade overall profit for this pair would be 970 pips.

March

April

May

June

July

Aug

So here are results for 3 pairs being tested in this thread by myself for a period of 1 FEB - 7 AUG.

EUR/JPY

Total trades: 8
Winners : 8
Losers: : 0

Total Profit: +460 pips.

USD/CHF

Total trades: 6
Winners : 6
Losers : 0

Total Profit: +280 pips.

GBP/USD

Total trades: 10
Winners: : 9
Losers : 1

Total profit: +790 pips.
Total profit with 3 pairs: +1530 pips
Average monthly profit: +255 pips.

As I can see for now simple things work sometimes..sometimes they work even in Forex..sometimes they produce better results than much more complicated systems..
I know there are systems that show good results in the past and stop working in present or with live trading. I don't want to convince anybody that this system works or not, 'cause for some of you it could be suitable for some maybe not..This is a daily system so if you happy with 1-2 signals for month (with 1 pair) - that's good. More active traders would like to see more action and get more adrenalin and not to wait and pray for 20/50 cross
I'll perform more backtests and find other pairs with positive or negative results. I'll try to find optimal TP levels for different pairs, 'cause 100 pips TP for USD/CHF is a funny thing
I can see that this simple system can catch big movements and nicely protect us from entering in ranging market. I like this system.

Best regards,
TheThing

hello TheThing

I was wondering when you count candles to signal entry...do you count a candle that has the same open and close price, or do you start all over? I personally don't see any harm in doing so, especially if it's in between two bearish candles in a down trend or two bullish candles in an up trend?

what you think?

See post #216. When looking at the GBPJPY, there were two 3 bar formations where the 2nd bar was a doji (open close within 2 pips). One was a winner, one was a loser. I wouldn't consider these to be A trades, because they show that there is indecision in the market. From what I have seen the system follows the momentum when there is a strong decisive move in the market. I would suggest that all three bars be moves of at least 10 pips (perhaps more or less taking into consideration the typical range) in one direction to qualify as an A trade, although I'd like to hear other testers experiences and opinions.


Current chart formations:

EURCAD shows three consecutive bear bars on Marketiva, but looking at recent history there have been two very similar formations that would not have paid off. I'm going to wait and see what happens with this one.

EURCHF looks good with three bulls and in an uptrend. I might take this one.

GBPCHF has got a formation with two bull bars surrounding a doji. Looking at the circumstances (strong uptrend, filter within Vegas 1h tunnel) this is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

USDJPY is also showing an interesting formation although the yen crosses have been so crazy lately that I would approach this one with extreme caution.

I've thought about how we should calculate/test different TP and SL levels. It can probably be done with backtesting and/or forwardtesting but as smjones said a while back using ATR will probably do. I'm just thinking out loud here...

Right now ATR(20) for GBPUSD is 115, 27 days ago it was down to 62 pips. That may be a bit little, especially since your testing at the moment is based on 30/100-90. But then again, it's low because the daily range has gotten lower so for the same reason we now apply EMA's to confirm trend I think we should look into this abit deeper.

Now I'm just gonna spew out some rules I'm going to test with, I'll do it with USDCHF first.

TP1 : 25% of ATR(20)
TP2 : 90% of ATR(20)
SL : 80% of ATR(20)

AND as I said, this is just numbers I thought of first. ALSO, I don't know if you guys are zooming in on the 1HR bar to see how a trade really goes. I mean, a bar can go up, then down, then up. At all potential trades one should mark the bar with a veritcal line and then zoom in on 1HR to see if it all goes thru well. We shouldn't be fooling our selfs. Now, you guys maybe already be that smart, but i would probably not have done it if I didn't think of it right now

USDCHF, above rules. FEB-AUG.
6 trades.
1. TP1: 20 TP2: 73 SL: 65 --- Both TP hit. +93
2. TP1: 20 TP2: 71 SL: 63 --- TP1 hit. Then B/E +20
3. TP1: 20 TP2: 73 SL: 66 --- This one went straight for our SL -132
4. TP1: 18 TP2: 63 SL: 56 --- Both TP hit. +81
5. TP1: 15 TP2: 53 SL: 47 --- Both TP hit. +68
6. TP1: 14 TP2: 51 SL: 45 --- TP1 hit. Then B/E +14

TOTAL: +144


Not as much as with standard rules BUT this was just a shoot from the hip from my part, to demonstrate why the ATR can be of real benifit to us (I think). What I will do tomorrow is tweaking these level abit (higher TP1 springs to mind immediatly) etc.

It's getting late here, I will soon go to bed. Will focus more on this tomorrow.

Thanks again for your hard work TheThing (and everybody else!)

GBP/CHF results were not as good as I'd hoped, but it has taught me something important about this system.

23/2 LONG open 2.4218 close 2.4207 - 9 pip loss
22/3 LONG open 2.3792 close 2.3850 - 58 pip gain
02/4 LONG open 2.3895 close 2.4032 - 37 pip gain

.....and then we had two trades where the opens on second/third candles were not higher than the first candle. If they had been taken, the following days were a 72 pip loss, and then a 123 pip loss - now I understand why that rule in post #1 is there.
......then we had another formation where one of the bars was a doji, only 2 pips between open and close . The movement the following day was 144 pips down. The evidence is mounting to suggest that these formations should be rejected.

24/5 LONG open 2.4388 close 2.4368 - 20 pip loss
13/6 LONG open 2.4530 close 2.4553 - 23 pip gain
19/7 LONG open 2.4649 close 2.4655 - 6 pip gain

For a total 95 pip gain over the period. There were a lot of marginal calls that the more greedy of us might have taken (MA was pretty flat so trend undecided, dojis, opens of bars weren't higher than previous bars), which predominantly would have resulted in losing days. The moral of the story is if the criteria isn't filled 100% with this pair then leave it alone and live to fight another day.

I know the data that I'm providing is a little different to the others because I'm not using TP or SL points, but I can tell you that they would not have worked well with this pair. Also worth taking into consideration is the high spread that most brokers charge on this pair, as much as 8-10 pips.

All in all judging by this relatively small sample of data, unless this pair was in a strong trend and the setup was perfect I would probably keep away from it with this method.

just one thing, I'm confused about were we put our stop loss...how do we calculate where SL should go. far as i know is suppose to be 90 pips or 2 pips lower of the previous candle whichever is lower, well what do we take from the previous candle to get the sl ?