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Aussie Pairs

  • #101
  • Oct 23, 2006 7:31am Oct 23, 2006 7:31am
I agree that there may be a 50 pip shorting opportunity from what I am seeing on a four hour chart right now.

Jeffrey
  • #102
  • Oct 23, 2006 7:34am Oct 23, 2006 7:34am
where I had it going. Though if I short I'll probably only target 30 or so pips.
  • #103
  • Dec 4, 2006 5:37pm Dec 4, 2006 5:37pm
I was looking at some charts and think there may be divergence on the aud daily. I'm new to divergence, so correct me if I'm wrong.

BTW, there was divergence at the beginning of my image that got cut off, but it was good for a safe 50-60 pips.

http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/8157/audqm0.th.gif

Thanks guys,
andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #104
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:04pm Dec 4, 2006 6:04pm
I've been watching this pair closely the past couple of days.

Yes, Divergance. I think we are seeing the classic bull/bear fight at the minute. (as always. LOL) ...Wanting to go down( or at least retrace) , but still having not reached that next major target level to satisfy everyone. Pretty much like cable and euro.

Daily bar just closed as a hang-man. Also price is finding resistance at the 76.4 fib . ...usually happens when there's about to be a change in direction.

I'm waiting to see wether it breaks up again or fails.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #105
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:07pm Dec 4, 2006 6:07pm
....hang on. Messed up my pairs. Euro @ 76.4 fib. The Aussie's @ 61.8. ...Same deal though. LOL
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #106
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:09pm Dec 4, 2006 6:09pm
Thanks a lot Bundy, I'm hoping to grab a few pips on the short.

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #107
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:17pm Dec 4, 2006 6:17pm
Quoting andersenws
Thanks a lot Bundy, I'm hoping to grab a few pips on the short.

andersenws
If you do, only take a small parcell at the moment. And take profits when you can. This thing hasn't turned yet!
.
I'm not betting the farm, that's for sure.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #108
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:24pm Dec 4, 2006 6:24pm
yep I've been short, now stuck waiting for current account results, expect up move, hate being stuck in a position before news.
  • #109
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:28pm Dec 4, 2006 6:28pm
Quoting bundyraider
If you do, only take a small parcell at the moment. And take profits when you can. This thing hasn't turned yet!
.
I'm not betting the farm, that's for sure.
I did jump in for a small short, didn't realize news was coming out (thanks logical!!) and exited for a measly profit. (1 pip, whooo!!!)

Thanks guys, I'll be keeping an eye on this the next couple days.

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #110
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:28pm Dec 4, 2006 6:28pm
Quoting logical1
yep I've been short, now stuck waiting for current account results, expect up move, hate being stuck in a position before news.
Yeah, I've got my stops sitting pretty close. You win some, you lose some.

Current Account is supposedly expected to be on the up for a while here. If it breaks up I'll just wait for a good entry.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #111
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:32pm Dec 4, 2006 6:32pm
So the number came in at 12b, no movement?
Still learning......
  • #112
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:36pm Dec 4, 2006 6:36pm
Quoting dvm04
So the number came in at 12b, no movement?
Uneventful , but the RBA announcement is tomorrow.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #113
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:37pm Dec 4, 2006 6:37pm
Quoting dvm04
So the number came in at 12b, no movement?
Yeah, I'm left staring at the chart with absolutely no movement and looking absolutely sutpid for exiting . It's cool though, as if this does turn, I think it will have plenty of steam.

Guess I'll have to get those emotions in check next time. Thanks for your help on this guys.

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #114
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:37pm Dec 4, 2006 6:37pm
I'm am being silly or is the calender wrong????

Previous should be MINUS 13.2
Forecast should be MINUS 10.6 , (so forecast is for an improvement)
Actual comes in at (I assume) MINUS 12.1, hence the slight down move/short AUD

results are worse then expected, yet calender has them green/better.....


or as mentioned, is this priced in.

sorry tired.
  • #115
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:40pm Dec 4, 2006 6:40pm
seems has been fixed already!

nice job FF
  • #116
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:48pm Dec 4, 2006 6:48pm
Quoting andersenws
Yeah, I'm left staring at the chart with absolutely no movement and looking absolutely sutpid for exiting . It's cool though, as if this does turn, I think it will have plenty of steam.

Guess I'll have to get those emotions in check next time. Thanks for your help on this guys.

andersenws
LOL. ...Man I've done that so many times. I don't have position sizes that will break me in a gap up, so I just tighten my stops for news now. That way if news goes the same way as my T/A based trade I don't end up with a fractured forehead. I'll still be in.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #117
  • Jan 2, 2007 8:12pm Jan 2, 2007 8:12pm
Hello,

First post here. Been lurking for a few months.

Just wondering if anyone else trades this pair. According to my system, AUD/JPY should have headed down about 50 pips... but that was 150 pips ago. I'm still showing a very strong SELL on this pair.

What am I missing?

Thanks.

nyakki
Everywhere is walking distance... if you have the time.
  • #118
  • Jan 2, 2007 8:49pm Jan 2, 2007 8:49pm
I am not sure what chart you are looking at for a strong sell.

This pair is in a very, very strong uptrend -- and has been for about 400 pips. I've posted a chart below for the pair. You can see the rising trendline underneath the pair. I'd not be surprised to see it fall back lower and hit that line, but that's not very far down.

I'd also be wary of selling immediately on a break of this line - in a trend this strong, you have to beware.

Remember most of all, that this pair, like the GBPJPY, and the EURJPY, and the NZDJPY, is a carry trade pair. The central bank interest rate (called the cash rate by their CB) in Australia is 6.25% and the discount rate (the main interest rate) in Japan is .40%. That means that there are still huge amounts of money traded on the long side of this pair because it earns interest on a buy, and it charges interest on a sell.
Attached Image
  • #119
  • Jan 2, 2007 9:26pm Jan 2, 2007 9:26pm
Thanks for the response.

I might have to adjust my calculations for carry trades like that. My handy-dandy spreadsheet is showing that AUD is (relatively - short termed) overbought and the numbers out of Japan aren't that bad (relatively speaking, that is). This one is defying (my) logic - or should I say defying my system.

This is what I get for venturing out of my comfort zone... luckily, I had SL set... unfortunately, they were hit
Everywhere is walking distance... if you have the time.
  • #120
  • Jan 2, 2007 10:05pm Jan 2, 2007 10:05pm
Using fundamentals seems very vague and unreliable to me. Human belief and emotion and natural patterns seem to be what really moves the market and these are best illustrated with technical analysis which is 100% accurate at showing what the market is in the process of doing. One source of fundamentals that I do use is the COT which has recently indicated the possibility of a downward move for this pair. I think you are right that this pair is about to reach a top and when it moves down it really moves. You just have to be careful when anticipating these moves.
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