Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Perhaps I should have said the cycles aren't as clean or as stable as something like Bitcoin.

Nice tracking of the yellow line so far, but keep in mind that this is NOT a forecast price line, it is the line that price would need to follow if the orange CMA travelled directly to the FP and did not deviate from that trajectory.
In effect the line could be thought of as an average line and the price will likely swing above and below that line on its path to the FP. It still does however, give a reasonably good indication of likely future price action should the FP be placed correctly.

I'm not here that much nowadays

Wishing PB all the best

As I'm updating the Time Cycles for other sites I use, thought I'd publish here too



PS - Nearly forgot the WAR cycle has technically been met, what with recent events in Iran, BUT, I'm not 100% satisfied, it has ALWAYS resulted in USA troops boots on the ground, that's not happened - this cycle unfortunately has a very wide open window of Influence which runs from 2022-2029 - It may be the case that the massive USA financial and military support to Ukraine and the direct bombing of Iran nuke sites is all the cycle will give, we don't know until the 2030's - What we DO know, is that we have a book on my bookshelf that predicted war around this time which was published way back in 1993 and we have war

There was a nice setup on the DAX daily:

I see Bitcoin also very bullish, something like this i guess:

MGC 5m

Oil possibly heading lower.

The white line is a seasonality line for the past 10 years combined with the presidential cycle. Price has followed it beautifully this year but is lagging a little now. Note that it's due a peak about now with a retracement into early October.
Plus we're now at the top of the red channel.

Bitcoin ticking along nicely.

Tradingview now have an inbuilt seasonality indicator. It's quite good.

I've just posted this new indicator to show seasonality. Have a look.

I made sure the figures match the Tradingview version but have added a chart which makes it much easier to visualise.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/f...0-Seasonality/

Any news from Alain ?

Bitcoin still following expected path. If the channel is to be respected the orange CMA must run through the yellow asterix FP, the yellow line shows the path price needs to follow for that to occur.
I've also added the seasonality line showing Bitcoin's monthly performance for its whole history, you can see that this also matches the yellow line.

Weekly

Monthly

It's common that you can draw a very clean channel enclosing the price action that captures the extent of future moves.

this one captured the big dump in US stocks

This one's doing a good job of capturing Bitcoin's moves

What I always found difficult was trying to match the CMA channels to these channels. I've now written an indicator that can be used to match the CMA channels to a fixed channel shown above.



Available here.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/Z...A-Trend-Match/

1. Draw your fixed channels using the Tradingview channel tool
2. Set 2 points along the centreline using the Trend Match indicator. The first point should be farther back than the half span of the CMA you suspect is correct.
3. Use the table on the right to get an overall view of what the CMA length is. You're looking for the smallest error.
4. Adjust the SMA length input until you find the length with the smallest error.
5 Add that figure to your CMA indicator in the length field. This will draw a CMA that runs down the middle of your channel with the least amount of deviation from your hand drawn channel.

Just to let everyone know, I had a very quick chat with Alain today. He seems much better and wanted to let everyone know he's taking a break from posting atm. Hopefully he'll be back soon.

This indicator will produce the yellow projection line as shown on the attached Bitcoin chart. This IS NOT a predicted price line but is the price path that the Bitcoin price would need to travel if the orange CMA travelled straight to the focal point without any deviations. If the channel is to be respected it should be close to the likely price path.
First set up your channels as described in previous posts.
How to use:
1. Select a possible major FP position (yellow asterix). This would usually be sitting on the centre-line of the fixed channel.
2. Go into replay mode and step back in time until you find a point where the CMA projection passes through the FP (or along the centre-line)
3. Drag the start date line to the orange dot on the orange CMA line.
4. Drag the end date line to the last bar in replay mode
5. The line will plot from this point. Length of the line can be adjusted up to a max of 500 bars into the future after exiting replay mode.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/v...rojected-Line/

You can see a pretty good match of both the seasonality line and the yellow projection below.

It's been really difficult getting a channel analysis read on stocks because of the price crash that occurred March/April.
I decided to write an indicator to show the positions of the CMAs after a future hypothetical price move. The yellow line shows that move.
You can see that a dramatic fall like this would cause the CMA's to point back to the centre of the channel, as they should.
It's a strong possibility.

Instead of looking like this, which doesn't make much sense.