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  • #10,621
  • Jun 23, 2025 6:40am Jun 23, 2025 6:40am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} @Noisy You have been trading for 10+ years, right ? Its time to take stock of what you have learned in those 10 years. Start your transformation journey now and then move on to your journey to financial freedom. You have some work to do. {image} ...
Yes, probably more like 15 years, but it's only in the last 10 years that I've taken it more seriously. From time to time with interruptions and not every day. In that time, I've tried all sorts of things, but I've now come to the realization that the more you know, the less you actually know and that intelligence is of little help when it comes to trading. I'm very disciplined and structured, but so far I haven't been able to find anything that effectively helps me achieve my goals. I have no idea why that is.

My goal is to achieve a constant minimum income with trading (be it +1R or +1% per month, even if that is perhaps ridiculous and even possible with passive buy and hold). At least that would be a start towards my goal.

So far, I have concentrated more on short-term trading strategies that focus on trading the London open. I have tried countless ORB approaches here for GBP/USD or, most recently, DAX. But I have had no lasting success in getting closer to this goal.

I'm starting to get the impression that I'm the worst trader on this planet, laugh. For all the time I've already spent looking to earn 1-2% a month, every idiot with a part-time job is constantly earning a minimum income.

Anyway, I don't want to waste any more time unnecessarily. I turned 40 last month and need to start earning some serious money from this “shit” or give up and find other ways that might be better suited to earning a repeatable minimum income.
  • #10,622
  • Jun 23, 2025 7:37am Jun 23, 2025 7:37am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, probably more like 15 years, but it's only in the last 10 years that I've taken it more seriously. From time to time with interruptions and not every day. In that time, I've tried all sorts of things, but I've now come to the realization that the more you know, the less you actually know and that intelligence is of little help when it comes to trading. I'm very disciplined and structured, but so far I haven't been able to find anything that effectively helps me achieve my goals. I have no idea why that is. My goal is to achieve a constant...
Noisy,

your message resonated so much with me.
I started trading a very long time ago. I spent a fortune on courses and learned very little. At some point I joined a group on here (FF) with a guy named Akim. I cannot remember the name of the group. Its gone now. Deemed commercial for reasons only known to FF.
Essentially he traded the BBMA system. Something I would recommend to anyone. Back then I was successful. My best was 100% return in one month. I was trading shares and FX very profitably. Then I stuffed up because I got bored sitting in front of my PC. I invested hugely in a bad property deal and lost everything.
It is now maybe 6 years later. I am back to trading but I cannot seem to get my act together. I think its because I have spent too much time looking at other strategies. These being the faster timescales and closer to scalping as opposed to the 1hour TF I used to work on.
I think I have it now. I think its a problem sorted.
I no longer look at "new fangled" indicators. I worked out that essentially they all do much the same thing anyway. Any clever indi that gets you into a trade earlier is also likely to be better at getting you into bad trades. I have gone back to basics and started over. Its working.
If you want to chat I will be happy to compare notes.
  • #10,623
  • Jun 23, 2025 7:50am Jun 23, 2025 7:50am
[quote=Noisy;15286019]{quote} Yes, probably more like 15 years, but it's only in the last 10 years that I've taken it more seriously. From time to time with interruptions and not every day. In that time, I've tried all sorts of things, but I've now come to the realization that the more you know, the less you actually know and that intelligence is of little help when it comes to trading. I'm very disciplined and structured,

Intelligence in this business may be a disadvantage the KISS principle works very well, stop bashing your head against the brick wall.

If you want to be successful in this most difficult of all trades, then you would be well advised to follow some very successful traders.

Robin Hood is one trader that has been able to trade very successfully, mind you he didn't discover it overnight, in fact many years were spent developing his ideas.

10 to 15 years was not a waste of time as you have discovered, Trading requires knowledge of the business, that business has many different aspects to it, and you need to understand what you are doing, and to be fair this is not an occupation that can be treated as a sideline.

Having been given one of Robin Hoods trading parameters recently you could do yourself a big favour and build yourself a template and study the system.

I hope we have given you and idea that other people have followed with Robin Hoods methods and there are many ways to "SKIN A CAT" so to speak, good luck
  • #10,624
  • Edited 10:19am Jun 23, 2025 9:22am | Edited 10:19am
EUR/USD - 23/06/25
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD062325.jpg Size: 1.7 MB
Template #1 - as far as I understood the entry rules correctly.

If the current daily candle on this daily chart closes below the yellow MA line at the end of the day, and in the lower window, the two Stockhastic lines (Grey) and the RSI line (Brown) are below the horizontal 50 line (Purple), would that be a valid short trade?

I also opened the Weekly chart to the right. In my opinion, both charts (D1/W1) look like an uptrend is still intact. I've always struggled with how to objectively determine a trend and how that's supposed to help you when the "trend" can change at any time after you placed your order.

So that's the idea behind a crossover entry, to enter as early as possible on a trend change/reversal? In a continuation trade, on the other hand, the goal is to continue trading the current trend in the current direction. In this case, I would have to wait until another candle on the Daily chart closes ABOVE the yellow line and all other indicators point upwards before going long?

Regarding the analysis of multiple timeframes before making a decision (which I've never understood either). How does that help specifically? If in this example I look at both charts (D1/W1), what's the point of using the W1 chart if I'm trading the D1 chart? Isn't the price action on the D1 chart exactly what creates the W1 chart? In other words, if the daily chart has an current upward "trend" but the price action on the lower timeframe changes direction downwards, the higher time frames would later change in the same direction. In terms of entering the market, wouldn't it unnecessarily complicate things to look at multiple timeframes, since you'd constantly find conflicting "trends". And so I would probably only very rarely find valid entries (especially if I only want to trade one market and monitor/trade according to D1).
  • #10,625
  • Edited 10:26am Jun 23, 2025 10:07am | Edited 10:26am
Quoting Noisy
EUR/USD - 23/06/25 {image}Template #1 - as far as I understood the entry rules correctly. If the current daily candle on this daily chart closes below the yellow HMA line at the end of the day, and in the lower window, the two Stockhastic lines (Grey) and the RSI line (Brown) are below the horizontal 50 line (Purple), would that be a valid short trade? I also opened the Weekly chart to the right. In my opinion, both charts (D1/W1) look like an uptrend is still intact. I've always struggled with how to objectively determine a trend and how that's...
Looking at the higher time frame(s) is a very simple concept, so I will explain it in a very simple way.

If you are in the midst of the coldest winter months in Canada (the higher time frame) and today is sunny and 25 degrees warmer than the average winter day (the lower time frame), does that mean that you get out your summer clothes and start wearing them today or do you recognize that today is just an aberration?
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #10,626
  • Edited 10:19am Jun 23, 2025 10:09am | Edited 10:19am
*
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #10,627
  • Jun 23, 2025 10:12am Jun 23, 2025 10:12am
Quoting Noisy
EUR/USD - 23/06/25 {image}Template #1 - as far as I understood the entry rules correctly. If the current daily candle on this daily chart closes below the yellow HMA line at the end of the day, and in the lower window, the two Stockhastic lines (Grey) and the RSI line (Brown) are below the horizontal 50 line (Purple), would that be a valid short trade? I also opened the Weekly chart to the right. In my opinion, both charts (D1/W1) look like an uptrend is still intact. I've always struggled with how to objectively determine a trend and how that's...

Template #1 - as far as I understood the entry rules correctly.

If the current daily candle on this daily chart closes below the yellow HMA line at the end of the day, and in the lower window, the two Stochastic lines (Grey) and the RSI line (Brown) are below the horizontal 50 line (Purple), would that be a valid short trade?
Correct. I don’t think an HMA line is a good choice though. A simple or Exponential MA would be better.

I also opened the Weekly chart to the right. In my opinion, both charts (D1/W1) look like an uptrend is still intact. I've always struggled with how to objectively determine a trend and how that's supposed to help you when the "trend" can change at any time after you placed your order.
A weekly trend is a lot more stable than a daily. A change in the daily trend signifies a temporary pull back which will be followed by a return to trend. A change in the higher timeframe trend tends to be slower when seen on the daily. It will show as a decrease in momentum. The higher highs, higher lows for an uptrend will become less pronounced. It would usually take several weeks to change direction.

So that's the idea behind a crossover entry, to enter as early as possible on a trend change/reversal?
A reversal entry to trade in the opposite direction of the higher TF trend carries more risk. You want several indications giving confluence. These can typically be divergence probably on RSI, long standing S&R levels, location of strong MA’s, fib levels, pivot levels etc.
In a continuation trade, on the other hand, the goal is to continue trading the current trend in the current direction. In this case, I would have to wait until another candle on the Daily chart closes ABOVE the yellow line and all other indicators point upwards before going long?
Yes. There is that HMA line again !!??


Regarding the analysis of multiple timeframes before making a decision (which I've never understood either). How does that help specifically? If in this example I look at both charts (D1/W1), what's the point of using the W1 chart if I'm trading the D1 chart? Isn't the price action on the D1 chart exactly what creates the W1 chart? In other words, if the daily chart has an current upward "trend" but the price action on the lower timeframe changes direction downwards, the higher time frames would later change in the same direction. In terms of entering the market, wouldn't it unnecessarily complicate things to look at multiple timeframes, since you'd constantly find conflicting "trends". And so I would probably only very rarely find valid entries (especially if I only want to trade one market and monitor/trade according to D1).
Yes it would. Reference to the trend on the higher timeframe would either give confluence or contradiction. I would only take the trade if the trend on both was in the same direction.

Forex is full of grey areas. There are no definitive rights and wrongs that are 100% successful. Its a game of odds. The people who win are those that stack the odds in their favour as much as possible. If you want to trade daily then in an ideal world you want to make an entry when a pullback is complete and the daily trend direction returns to that of the higher timeframe.
Yes, trading pull backs is possible, and profitable. However it takes a good knowledge of the instrument being traded as well as good understanding of price action.
A piece of advice I was given long ago:

" The best, and easiest way to win more in Forex is simply to lose less. "

Only take those trades where everything is in your favour. Where both the current timeframe and the upper timeframes are trending the same way. Always look left for support or resistance levels and wait until they break if necesary.

Did you mention you only want to trade one instrument ? Maybe look at other pairs that trend well over longer periods so that you have a better chance of finding a viable trade.
  • #10,628
  • Jun 23, 2025 10:12am Jun 23, 2025 10:12am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} VERY WELL SAID

I had to rewrite. Only part of my reply posted
  • #10,629
  • Jun 23, 2025 10:36am Jun 23, 2025 10:36am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} You are welcome. And since you were nice about it, I am going to... Give You a Gift That Keeps on Giving This is about as simple as trading can get and I have never shared this before. I removed every indicator from the chart below, BUT, only to prove a point which is that it's possible to make money trading using just one indicator. That indicator is: smTMMS Oscillator_v7.2 (I don't use v7.3 and above because one or more of them always turns my background grid off when I switch time frames. (I don't remember which ones do it, but I know...
Amazing strategy here, thank you very much. I have tested this on H4 and seems great, do you have any preferences about TF? or anything would do just fine.
  • #10,630
  • Edited 2:40pm Jun 23, 2025 11:22am | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting jameboy9864
{quote} Amazing strategy here, thank you very much. I have tested this on H4 and seems great, do you have any preferences about TF? or anything would do just fine.
You have to pick a time frame(s) that "fits" your lifestyle, temperament, your personality, the amount of time you can devote to trading each day, etc. so it's really more of a personal choice.

For example, I no longer trade the 1hr. or 4 hr. charts because I don't like being MADE to get up multiple times a night to check the charts.

I most prefer trading the 1 min. (which I don't recommend anyone do), 2 min., 5 min., 10 min., 15 min. and Daily. When I trade the "x minutes" charts, I base which ones I trade based on numerous things such as: which stock, Futures, or Forex I'm trading, the time of day or night, how much time I have to trade, etc., etc., etc.

For example, trading the 1 min. GBP/USD today was GREAT! Other days, trading it will crucify you. The template that I am using in the image below is just some new stuff that I am testing out, it's not one of my "usual" templates so I am not sharing it just yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #10,631
  • Jun 23, 2025 11:27am Jun 23, 2025 11:27am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} Looking at the higher time frame(s) is a very simple concept, so I will explain it in a very simple way. If you are in the midst of the coldest winter months in Canada (the higher time frame) and today is sunny and 25 degrees warmer than the average winter day (the lower time frame), does that mean that you get out your summer clothes and start wearing them today or do you recognize that today is just an aberration?
Good analogy. Yes, so I understand it correctly. Looking at the higher time frame is about identifying the prevailing trend.
  • #10,632
  • Jun 23, 2025 11:55am Jun 23, 2025 11:55am
Quoting sj9bp20
I don’t think an HMA line is a good choice though.
Yes, I mistyped. I meant the yellow moving average line.

Quoting sj9bp20
A reversal entry to trade in the opposite direction of the higher TF trend carries more risk. You want several indications giving confluence. These can typically be divergence probably on RSI, long standing S&R levels, location of strong MA’s, fib levels, pivot levels etc.

That's what I was wondering. To me, it seemed as if the crossover trades were always against the trend. So, you can also find crossover trades where the traded time frame and the next higher time frame show the same trend at the time of entry? Yes, HOW you determine the trend seems to be another matter. I want to keep it as objective and simple as possible. Regarding to the other indicators/levels: I don't want to have to pay attention to more indicators than necessary and I certainly don't want to have to judge the chart based on my subjective intuition in order to come to a decision that can then be repeated. As far as I've read from some of RobinHood's posts, you should simply define the trend in the higher time frame using the same template and indicators.

Quoting sj9bp20
I would only take the trade if the trend on both was in the same direction.
Makes sense.

Quoting sj9bp20
Forex is full of grey areas. There are no definitive rights and wrongs that are 100% successful. Its a game of odds. The people who win are those that stack the odds in their favour as much as possible.
Agree!

Quoting sj9bp20
If you want to trade daily then in an ideal world you want to make an entry when a pullback is complete and the daily trend direction returns to that of the higher timeframe.
This appears to be the case with the last D1 candle for EUR/USD on Friday. Could this have been a continuation setup to actually go long at today's opening? In that case, the indicators on the W1 chart would also show an uptrend, thus agreeing.

Quoting sj9bp20
Did you mention you only want to trade one instrument ? Maybe look at other pairs that trend well over longer periods so that you have a better chance of finding a viable trade.
That would be my preferred approach, as I already feel overwhelmed. Trading one market well and profitably seems sufficient for me. Otherwise, I have no need to look at multiple markets. Basically, it doesn't matter to me what, as long as it fulfills my goal and costs me as little time and subjective analysis as possible. I want to have freedom and money with trading, not no money and ruin my eyes even more than necessary in front of a screen all day.[/quote]

"other pairs that trend well over longer periods" - This doesn't seem to be the case in the Forex market in general, regardless of the pair. No matter what I look at, it always looks more like mean reversion. Also, sometimes very slow moves, with a short daily range. Perhaps a bit more volatility at the moment due to all the chaos in the world. Be that as it may, as I said, I don't care "what" as long as I finally achieve my goal and don't start making money when I no longer need it and am 6 meters underground.
  • #10,633
  • Jun 23, 2025 1:37pm Jun 23, 2025 1:37pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, I mistyped. I meant the yellow moving average line. {quote} That's what I was wondering. To me, it seemed as if the crossover trades were always against the trend. So, you can also find crossover trades where the traded time frame and the next higher time frame show the same trend at the time of entry? Yes, HOW you determine the trend seems to be another matter. I want to keep it as objective and simple as possible. Regarding to the other indicators/levels: I don't want to have to pay attention to more indicators than necessary and...

That's what I was wondering. To me, it seemed as if the crossover trades were always against the trend. So, you can also find crossover trades where the traded time frame and the next higher time frame show the same trend at the time of entry? Yes, HOW you determine the trend seems to be another matter. I want to keep it as objective and simple as possible. Regarding to the other indicators/levels: I don't want to have to pay attention to more indicators than necessary and I certainly don't want to have to judge the chart based on my subjective intuition in order to come to a decision that can then be repeated. As far as I've read from some of RobinHood's posts, you should simply define the trend in the higher time frame using the same template and indicators.

Methods of determining trend. There are lots. Some are faster than others but by being so become more eratic.
On each of my charts I have several methods. For the current Tf chart the most common method is for price being above or below an average. I have never liked this. Price runs away from an average with momentum and then returns to it. That return stage, despite being, lets say above the MA, is actually mostly a falling value. The average says its good for long trades whereas in fact, the price is falling. Both simple and exponential have this problem.
1/ For a better, more indicative of direction MA I do use the 200 HMA. The one I use changes colour between upslope and downslope. For me its perhaps the best overall trend detector.
2/ Two simple or exponential MA's are good. A fast and a slow. say a 20 and a 50 sma or ema. If the 20 is above the 50 then you are going up. If the 20 is below the 50 its down. Simple enough and easy to visualise. If you dont want the ma's over the candles then use the values in MacD. Above the zero line go long. Below go short. You can even multiply them out to represent trend on a higher TF. That is, if you use 20 and 50 on a daily, simply multiply each by 5 and it will closely represent the weekly trend.
3/ I use both RSI and MFI together in the one window. If both are above 50 in value then only look to go long. If below look for shorts.
4/ I have an indicator made by M.Laden called "Precision Trend (mtf+histo+alerts). It can be formed into a strip along the bottom of a chart with one colour for trending up and another for down. Because they take up little space I have one for the TF above my current chart and another for the Tf above that. Its overkill but allows me to decide between trades when my margin level is limited.
  • #10,634
  • Jun 23, 2025 1:44pm Jun 23, 2025 1:44pm
Quoting RobinHood
*
#88
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #10,635
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:03pm Jun 23, 2025 2:03pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, probably more like 15 years, but it's only in the last 10 years that I've taken it more seriously. From time to time with interruptions and not every day. In that time, I've tried all sorts of things, but I've now come to the realization that the more you know, the less you actually know and that intelligence is of little help when it comes to trading. I'm very disciplined and structured, but so far I haven't been able to find anything that effectively helps me achieve my goals. I have no idea why that is. My goal is to achieve a constant...
@Noisy

To know your trading journey I just spent soem time and finished reading your 67 posts in Forex Factory.

You have another 27 years till your retirement in your country. What you do in the next 2 to 3 years will determine if you can retired early before 67.

You need to start working on this -

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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #10,636
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:24pm Jun 23, 2025 2:24pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} @Noisy To know your trading journey I just spent soem time and finished reading your 67 posts in Forex Factory. You have another 27 years till your retirement in your country. What you do in the next 2 to 3 years will determine if you can retired early before 67. You need to start working on this - {image} ...
Hehe. So far my pension will be = $0.

At 67, I doubt there will be still a retirement check at all from the Government to be expected. Probably we will speak russian by then.

Quote
The minimum wage in Germany is currently €12.82 gross per hour, as of January 1, 2025. This applies to most employees over 18 years old. For a full-time employee working 40 hours a week, this translates to a monthly gross salary of approximately €2,222

So there you have it. As a self employed trader including taxes and other pension expenses i should probably more generate a 5-10k/month minimum from trading.

Right now i would be happy making a consistent $100/month following what ever „plan. The problem is there are no such plans to find, just a lot of indicators and people giving you all kind of advice all over the place. It’s information overload for me!
  • #10,637
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:57pm Jun 23, 2025 2:57pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Hehe. So far my pension will be = $0. At 67, I doubt there will be still a retirement check at all from the Government to be expected. Probably we will speak russian by then. {quote} So there you have it. As a self employed trader including taxes and other pension expenses i should probably more generate a 5-10k/month minimum from trading. Right now i would be happy making a consistent $100/month following what ever „plan. The problem is there are no such plans to find, just a lot of indicators and people giving you all kind of advice all...
At this point in your life, I would suggest that you do these 3 things as soon as you can. To change your life, you often have to change your mindset first.

1. Find a trading mentor and pay him/her for their advice, but MAKE them prove to you by way of their brokerage statements that they are legit first. This will save you "years" of more floundering.

2. Read "The Richest Man in Babylon" by George S. Clason.

3. Read ALL of the books that Og Mandino wrote.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #10,638
  • Jun 24, 2025 12:41am Jun 24, 2025 12:41am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Yes, probably more like 15 years, but it's only in the last 10 years that I've taken it more seriously. From time to time with interruptions and not every day. In that time, I've tried all sorts of things, but I've now come to the realization that the more you know, the less you actually know and that intelligence is of little help when it comes to trading. I'm very disciplined and structured, but so far I haven't been able to find anything that effectively helps me achieve my goals. I have no idea why that is. My goal is to achieve a constant...

Today' ORB DE40
- try the 10-min open range

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #10,639
  • Jun 24, 2025 3:54am Jun 24, 2025 3:54am
Dear All,

I'm really pleased with this approach and the underlying logic. My goal is to develop a tool that can provide entry notifications for trades—something that could benefit all of us. Currently, I'm working on a system that alerts me when the HMA crosses the EMA on the H1 timeframe. It's still in the testing phase, and while it's showing potential, I believe we need something even more effective for timely trade entries.
I welcome any advice from experienced traders, and if anyone has a version of a similar concept, I'd be happy to collaborate or discuss the project further.
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  • #10,640
  • Jun 24, 2025 3:55am Jun 24, 2025 3:55am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Today' ORB DE40 - try the 10-min open range {image} ...

Waited patiently for the right moment.

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Daily at Frankfurt near 11am

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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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