HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

Date: 28th May 2025.

Economic Data Boosts The US Dollar And US Indices!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...banks_featured
All indices rose in value on Tuesday as investors positively react to the latest economic data beating expectations. The positive economic data also triggered an upward trend for the US Dollar Index. The FOMC Meeting Minutes due this evening will influence both the stock market and the US Dollar. However, shareholders will largely fix their attention on NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report due in the upcoming hours.

SNP500 (USA500) - NVIDIA Report Key For Stock Market Performance
NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report is unique due to its exposure to indices and ETFs. NVIDIA’s stocks are one of the few stocks which are included in the SNP500, NASDAQ and even the Dow Jones. For the SNP500 and the NASDAQ the stock is the 2nd most influential company and the 23rd most influential for the Dow Jones.

However, investors should note that due to its weight, the earnings report will not only impact the SNP500. It will also influence sentiment towards the stock market and the technology sector. Currently, the sentiment within the market continues to improve as economic data signals lower recession risk.

NVIDIA stocks rose 3.21% on Tuesday and so far during this morning’s Asian session are maintaining the gains. This indicates investors are not expecting poor earnings from this evening’s report. If we monitor the stocks within the SNP500 which hold a weight of at least 0.50% and above, all stocks rose in value on Tuesday. This indicates the strength of the current momentum. If NVIDIA comfortably beats earnings and revenue expectations, NVIDIA stocks and most indices are likely to continue increasing in value for the week.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUSACAD 30-Minute


As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, another development which is having a positive influence on the SNP500 and NASDAQ are Meta stocks. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly adopting a pro-Trump stance to reduce regulations on Facebook and Instagram and for the administration to apply pressure on countries charging additional taxes on the platform.

NASDAQ (USA100) Analysis Video





USDCAD - Economic Data Boosts The US Dollar!
On Tuesday the US released 3 economic data. Durable Goods Orders for April fell by 6.3% which was a significantly lower decline than projections. The Core Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.2% whereas analysts were expecting the core orders to decline. Lastly, the US CB Consumer Confidence rose from 85.7 to 98.00, the highest in 3 months and also reaching the 100.00 level.

In the previous week, the USDCAD struggled to hold its value and the trend clearly moved in favor of the Canadian Dollar. However, price action at the moment signals a correction and the US Dollar increases in value across most currencies. Currently, the main influence is likely to be the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes. Currently the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, but the Meeting Minutes may provide insights into how hawkish they are. If the view of the Fed remains hawkish, the Dollar may find support.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said interest rates should stay unchanged until the effects of high trade tariffs on consumer prices are clearer. He highlighted the challenge the Fed faces. This includes balancing inflation and the need to support economic growth amid policy uncertainty from the Trump administration.

On a different subject, the US Dollar may also find support from progress in the US-India trade talks. The Indian Finance Ministry suggests that a successful trade agreement with the US could transform current economic headwinds into tailwinds, boosting exports and market access.

Currently, the USDCAD is retracing lower since the opening of the European Session. However, the price of the exchange continues to maintain a price above most Moving Averages. If the price regains momentum and increases above 1.38305, buy signals will strengthen.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. All major indices and the US Dollar Index climbed on Tuesday, supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data. This includes Durable Goods Orders and Confidence Indexes.
2. NVIDIA's report, key due to its significant weighting in the SNP500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones, is set to impact market sentiment, particularly in the tech sector.
3. Meta’s pro-Trump pivot, aimed at reducing regulations and addressing tax challenges abroad, is contributing to positive sentiment in the SNP500 and NASDAQ.
4. The USDCAD saw a correction after weak prior performance, supported by solid US data and the upcoming FOMC meeting. A hawkish Fed commentary would offer potential support for the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Date: 29th May 2025.

NVIDIA Beat Earnings Expectations and The CIT Blocks US Tariffs.

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The NASDAQ rose to its highest price since February 21st as investors positively reacted to US courts ordering Trump to remove tariffs. In addition to this, NVIDIA stocks rise 5.00% after releasing their latest quarterly earnings report. Let’s take a look at the latest developments impacting the markets.

US Courts Say No To Trump Tariffs
Surprisingly, the Court of International Trade in New York made the decision that the US administration has overstepped its mandate. The court stated that the President must set tariffs through Congress. Although most of these tariffs are currently suspended, it gave the White House 10 days to remove them, except for those on aluminum and steel.

The court order puts doubt on whether tariffs are possible and if they will be part of the current administration. So far, the White House said, ‘It is not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency,’ as it launched an appeal against the court. The ruling by the court does have a positive impact in the short-medium term. However, the courts also add uncertainty to the upcoming weeks.

NVIDIA Beat Earnings Expectations
NVIDIA shares climbed after the market closed as investors held onto their positions, buoyed by strong earnings results. The company reported revenue of $44.1 billion, marking a 12% increase from Q4 and a 69% rise year-over-year. Both earnings per share and revenue exceeded prior projections. If momentum is maintained, the stocks may become the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, and SNP500 again.

Currently, for the NASDAQ, the stocks hold a weight of 11% and 6% for the SNP500. All 3 US indices are currently increasing in value, mainly due to NVIDIA’s earnings report and the court order.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNASDAQ 15-Minute Chart


Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from earlier in the month were more negative than expected. According to experts, the market may have had a bearish reaction to the meeting minutes. Though this was avoided due to support from NVIDIA and the latest court order. The meeting minutes reveal heightened concerns over the economic impact of President Trump's trade policies. They particularly highlight the potential loss of the US safe-haven status due to market volatility following tariff announcements.

Officials noted that declines in US government debt prices, equities, and the US Dollar could signal a shift in investor confidence, potentially leading to long-term economic repercussions. Therefore, the report confirms that a recession is still a real concern for the Federal Reserve. However, the Meeting Minutes also stated that upward pressure on inflation may be difficult to control while simultaneously trying to stop the employment sector from weakening.

However, the report is generally known as a lagging indicator. Since the report was drawn up the US administration has become very close to a trade agreement with India and the EU. Due to this, and the court order, the market may pay less attention to the Meeting Minutes.

A key factor for most tradeable assets will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. The index measures the change in pricing of the most bought goods and services. In addition to the Core PCE Price Index, investors will also closely monitor today’s US Gross Domestic Product and Weekly Unemployment Claims.

 

1. NASDAQ +1.16%
2. Dow Jones +1.23%
3. US Dollar Index +0.24%
4. Gold -0.48%

Key Takeaway Points:

1. NASDAQ Rises: Court blocks most Trump tariffs, boosting stocks and the US Dollar. However, the US Dollar quickly gave up the recent gains.
2. NVIDIA Shines: Earnings exceed expectations, pushing the stock up 5%. The earnings report supports the stock market as a whole.
3. Fed Warnings: Meeting Minutes raise recession concerns from trade policies. The Fed struggles to make decisions due to uncertainties.
4. Markets focus their attention on the Core PCE Price Index, GDP, and Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th May 2025.

ECB Rate Cut Expectations: Will June Deliver Another 25 bp Cut?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...oSky__featured
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce another 25 basis point (bp) interest rate cut at its upcoming June policy meeting. Despite dovish expectations, recent statements from hawkish members and rising geopolitical uncertainties suggest that the path toward additional monetary policy easing may not be as straightforward as before.

Mixed Signals: Schnabel’s Call for Caution vs Dovish Momentum
While Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel voiced support for keeping rates unchanged, noting that now is the time for a ‘steady hand,’ the overall tone within the ECB Governing Council has recently leaned dovish. Preliminary Eurozone inflation data and updated projections could strengthen the case made by members like François Villeroy de Galhau for another cut.

June Outlook: Pause vs 25 bp Cut
At the last meeting, the ECB delivered a widely anticipated 25 bp cut. However, the April meeting minutes revealed a split into three camps:

 

1. One group initially preferred to pause but agreed to front-load a June cut due to rising trade tensions from Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff threats.
2. Another faction argued for a larger 50 bp cut, indicating deeper concern over growth risks.
3. A third group favoured more cautious, data-dependent easing.

Heading into the June ECB decision, the debate has narrowed to two options:

 

1. A pause to assess incoming data
2. A 25 bp rate cut to sustain momentum

Schnabel and Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann have spoken in favour of pausing, arguing that further cuts may be ineffective or even risky for the Eurozone economy.

Data & Tariff Tensions: A New Source of Risk
Since Schnabel’s remarks, Trump has escalated threats of a 50 bp tariff on EU imports. Though temporarily suspended for talks, the uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Unlike the market volatility after the ‘Liberation Day’ headlines, current reactions have been more subdued, making a preemptive rate cut less justifiable.

Even ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, typically dovish, warned against both over-tightening and over-easing. He emphasized the need for data-driven decisions, saying that further cuts are possible if inflation softens, but ‘no one is talking about dramatic rate cuts.’

Preliminary May inflation data, especially in services, is expected to show deceleration—but this may reflect seasonal adjustments. Meanwhile, import prices continue to fall, though disinflation from a stronger euro (EUR) may have peaked.

Trump’s recent trade threats dampen hopes for a negotiated deal. EU retaliation, if pursued, could raise imported goods prices and offset currency-related disinflation, adding complexity to the ECB’s policy decisions.

The ECB’s inflation expectations survey showed a rise in 1-year inflation expectations, though long-term views remain stable. Business confidence data has been mixed, with front-loaded exports earlier this year potentially leading to weaker activity in Q2.

Germany’s new Chancellor's investment push in infrastructure and defence—what Holzmann called a ‘fiscal shock’—could provide economic support in the medium term. While such measures take time to impact GDP, they add another layer to the ECB’s policy calculus.

Is the ECB Running Out of Room to Cut?
With rising internal opposition and geopolitical headwinds, the ECB's path to additional interest rate cuts appears increasingly narrow. If a cut is delivered next week, the central bank may pause in July unless further economic shocks emerge. Alternatively, a June pause could leave the door open for easing in July. As Lane stated, the ECB must remain flexible, but the hurdles to further rate cuts are clearly rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd June 2025.

Market Recap: Volatility, Tariffs, and Trade Uncertainty Define May's End and June's Start.

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May Ends with Mixed Markets and Renewed Trade Tensions
Financial markets ended May on a choppy note, reflecting a volatile month filled with geopolitical tensions, shifting inflation expectations, and mounting speculation around central bank policy moves. As the dust settles, investors are turning their focus to June with caution, especially as trade disputes between the US and China intensify once again.

Tariff-related anxieties were reignited following President Donald Trump’s online remarks accusing China of ‘totally violating’ a recent trade agreement. Although the full details remain unclear, the statement prompted a wave of market jitters. While the immediate market panic seen earlier in May, following the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ levies has subsided somewhat, economic uncertainty remains high. The US administration’s unpredictable trade stance — punctuated by calls to double steel tariffs and reimpose levies on Chinese imports — continues to weigh on investor sentiment.

Trump’s Tariff Policy Back in Focus
Despite the tense geopolitical backdrop, US Treasury yields edged lower, bolstered by a cooling in core inflation expectations and signs of slowing consumer spending. The 2-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 3.897%, while the 10-year yield slipped by 1.8 basis points to 4.400%. Both yields are approximately 25 basis points higher compared to the start of the month, reflecting the complex interplay between haven demand and shifting monetary policy expectations. The softer inflation data renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts later in the year, a narrative that has provided a partial tailwind for bond markets.

Wall Street closed the month with a strong performance overall, despite Friday’s subdued finish. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a modest gain of 0.13%, the S&P 500 dipped slightly, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 0.32%. However, on a monthly basis, equity markets recorded impressive gains. The Nasdaq rallied 9.56%, marking its best month since November 2023, driven largely by strength in technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks. The S&P 500 rose 6.15%, its best May performance since 1990, while the Dow added 3.94%.

As June began, US stock futures pointed to a weaker open, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 futures all trading lower in early action. Investor caution is apparent, with market participants closely monitoring the evolving trade narrative and bracing for a new wave of economic data. The highlight of the week is the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, expected to offer critical insights into labour market strength and the broader health of the US economy.

Global Market Reaction: Asia Hit by Geopolitical Risks
Global markets also responded to the trade drama and geopolitical risks. In Asia, major indices fell sharply. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged more than 2%, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.6%, and South Korea’s Kospi declined by 0.4%. The renewed escalation between Beijing and Washington, coupled with concerns over China's manufacturing activity and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, amplified investor nervousness.

Commodity Markets React: Gold, Oil, and the Dollar
The foreign exchange market reflected the tension, with the US dollar experiencing fluctuations tied to trade developments. The dollar index (DXY) ended the month marginally higher at 99.441 but slipped early Monday as investors assessed the potential economic fallout from escalating tariff threats. The greenback weakened to 142.90 yen, while the euro edged up to $1.1420. Sterling and commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars also gained modestly.

Oil prices initially declined to $60.78 per barrel but later reversed course, rallying after OPEC+ announced a modest output increase starting in July. US crude rose to $62.39, and Brent climbed to $64.19.





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Gold prices spiked to $3350 per ounce as some risk aversion returned, fiscal concerns and a weakening dollar continue to underpin the precious metal in the longer term. Analysts have noted that if tariff revenue falls short of expectations, the US may seek alternative fiscal measures, adding further pressure on the dollar and stoking demand for safe havens.

The political landscape also added to the market complexity. President Trump’s sweeping tariff and tax proposals, including the controversial Section 899, are under congressional review. If passed, the bill could significantly reshape the US fiscal framework and investor strategy, especially as it proposes taxing investors from countries with so-called ‘unfair foreign taxes.’ Some senators have already voiced concerns over the projected $3.8 trillion increase in federal debt, and revisions to the bill appear likely.

Meanwhile, company-specific developments also played a role in shaping market movements. Shares of Gap tumbled 20.2% after the retailer warned that new tariffs could cost up to $300 million annually. Nvidia, a key tech heavyweight, also fell 2.9% despite strong earnings, dragging the broader sector lower. On the positive side, Ulta Beauty surged 11.8% after beating expectations and raising guidance, while Costco climbed 3.1% on the back of solid quarterly results.

Looking Ahead: Jobs Report and June Uncertainty
In summary, May was a month of sharp swings and mixed signals across global financial markets. While equity indices posted strong gains, the broader outlook remains clouded by trade tensions, political risk, and questions about future Fed policy. As June began all eyes turned to key economic indicators and potential developments in US-China relations, which are likely to shape market sentiment in the weeks ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd June 2025.

Global Markets Under Pressure: Japanese Outflows, China’s Slump, and Trade War Fallout Shake Sentiment.

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Global markets are facing renewed uncertainty as a combination of trade tensions, weak economic data, and policy recalibrations fuel volatility across equities, currencies, and bonds.

Japan: Historic Fund Outflows and Rebalancing Pressures
Japanese equity funds witnessed their largest weekly outflows in nearly 18 years, with $7.49 billion pulled in the week to May 28, according to LSEG Lipper data. This marked the heaviest withdrawal since July 2007.

Analysts attribute the exodus to profit-taking after April’s market dip and May’s rebound, along with cautious sentiment around forward earnings. Domestic investors were the primary drivers, accounting for $7.55 billion of the outflows, while foreign funds saw a modest $59 million in inflows.

Daisuke Motori of Morningstar Japan noted this pattern of ‘buying the dip and selling the rally’ has repeated in recent months. Rebalancing by large institutional investors such as pension funds and life insurers likely added to the sell-off.

A strengthening yen—up 10% against the dollar year-to-date—is also clouding Japan’s export outlook. LSEG data shows analysts have downgraded forward 12-month earnings forecasts by 1.8% in the past 30 days.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to tapering its bond-buying and cautiously normalizing policy, even as uncertainty looms large. While inflation reached 4.6% in April, underlying inflation remains below the BOJ’s 2% target. The next rate-setting meeting on June 16–17 is expected to review the bond tapering plan extending into fiscal 2026.

Ueda also flagged concerns about US tariffs and their impact on Japan’s economy, warning of potential hits to exports, corporate profits, and wage negotiations heading into winter.

Australia: Tariff Warnings and Rate Cuts
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also on high alert. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that higher US tariffs could depress global trade, investment, and employment.

While the precise effects remain unclear due to policy unpredictability, Hunter confirmed that these downside risks were a key factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut to a two-year low of 3.85%. The central bank remains open to further easing, particularly if global trade deteriorates.

Interestingly, the RBA sees the tariff pressure as disinflationary for Australia, given cheaper imported goods as Chinese suppliers redirect exports. Headline inflation remained at 2.4% in Q1, with core inflation easing back into the target band for the first time since 2021.

China: Manufacturing Slumps Despite Tariff Truce
In China, the manufacturing sector endured its steepest decline since September 2022, according to the Caixin/S&P Global PMI, which fell to 48.3 in May, well below the 50 threshold signalling contraction.

The reading sharply diverged from the official PMI and surprised analysts, suggesting that smaller and medium-sized exporters, particularly in the private sector, are suffering disproportionately despite the recent US-China tariff truce.

Economists attributed the discrepancy to timing differences in data collection and methodology. Nonetheless, the Caixin results point to intensifying economic pressure, with falling export orders and production weighing on sentiment.

The trade war’s ripple effect extended to other Asian economies, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all reporting declines in manufacturing output.



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Currency Markets: Dollar Sinks on Trade War Woes
Currency markets reflected investor unease as the US dollar hit a six-week low on Tuesday amid signs of fragility in the US economy. The dollar index dropped to 98.58—its lowest level since late April—before partially rebounding.

Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank, said, 'Trade tensions are not really improving… we’ve seen the dollar getting hammered widely.’ The Aussie and Kiwi outperformed, with New Zealand’s dollar hitting a year-to-date high of $0.6054 before retreating.

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The greenback weakened following a third straight month of US manufacturing contraction, while upcoming factory orders and jobs data may shed further light on the economic toll of ongoing tariff battles.

The euro briefly touched a six-week high of $1.1454 before retreating, while investors also await this week’s European Central Bank policy decision.

Adding further pressure, US tariffs on steel and aluminium are set to double to 50% this week, even as the Trump administration pushes for tougher trade negotiations globally.



The global economy is showing renewed signs of strain under the weight of trade uncertainty, export weakness, and policy recalibrations. While central banks across Japan, Australia, and China remain cautious, markets are increasingly sensitive to any signs of economic softness or policy missteps.

As the BOJ, ECB, and US data dominate the agenda in the coming days, traders will be watching closely for signs of stabilization—or deeper fragmentation—in an already fragile global landscape.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th June 2025.

PMI Surprises, ADP Misses, and Trade Talks Tease Progress.

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1. ADP jobs data raises Fed rate cut expectations
2. Eurozone and UK PMIs revised up, supporting ECB easing
3. Mortgage applications and housing data remain weak
4. Oil prices stable amid supply concerns and OPEC+ decisions
5. Trade optimism builds ahead of the G7, boosting European markets

Global markets are trading cautiously today as investors digest a mix of stronger-than-expected European PMIs, weaker US labour market data, and renewed trade deal speculation ahead of the G7 summit.

US Futures Slide as Trade Tensions and Weak ADP Jobs Data Raise Concerns
US stock futures turned red midday Wednesday after an initial rebound was erased by a weaker-than-expected ADP private payrolls report. The May ADP print showed just 37,000 jobs added, far below expectations and the slowest pace since March 2023. The goods-producing sector shed 2,000 jobs, with notable declines in mining and manufacturing. Services added 36,000 jobs, but key segments like professional and health services saw job losses.

The report raises downside risks for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and reinforces growing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Former President Trump echoed this sentiment, criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and demanding rate cuts, pointing to Europe’s rate cut spree.

‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!
Treasury yields knee-jerked lower, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.42%, and the 2-year at 3.92%, before retracing slightly. Wall Street futures dipped, with the NASDAQ down -0.13%, and the S&P 500 and Dow both off -0.03%.

European Stocks Rise on PMI Upgrades and Optimism Over US-EU Trade Talks
Despite US weakness, European stock markets are mostly higher, led by the German DAX, which hit a fresh record high. Gains came after stronger-than-expected revisions to Eurozone and UK PMIs, but also after the German government approved a new tax relief package. A stronger-than-expected batch of PMI revisions across the Eurozone and the UK fueled optimism, with both regions’ Composite PMIs now showing slight expansion rather than contraction.

 

1. Eurozone Composite PMI was revised up to 50.2, shifting from contraction to slight expansion. Services PMI also improved to 49.7, though still below the 50-neutral level. Inflation pressures remained mixed, but falling input costs provided some relief.
2. UK Composite PMI improved to 50.3, driven by a sharp rebound in services to 50.9. Despite weak new orders and higher costs, business optimism reached a six-month high, suggesting potential resilience in the second half of the year.

The data supports the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expected rate cut tomorrow, with HCOB analysts arguing that slowing goods inflation could justify further easing. While the ECB has in fact cut seven times (from 4.00% to 2.25%), and the Fed has eased by 100 bps, Trump’s comment underscores the political pressure facing the central bank amid cooling growth signals.

Geopolitical Spotlight: G7 Deal Hopes Rise
A high-level meeting in Paris between EU and US officials has stoked hope for broader trade negotiations—particularly with China.

However, mixed signals dominate. While Trump commented overnight that President Xi is ‘extremely hard to make a deal with,’ China’s top diplomat countered by urging the US to steer the relationship ‘onto the right track.’ Meanwhile, reports from The Toronto Sun indicate that a potential US-Canada deal could be announced before the upcoming G7 summit, further boosting risk appetite. Trump's new envoy to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, struck an optimistic tone during a speech in Toronto, fueling speculation. Sources suggest Ottawa is aware of necessary concessions, and there’s optimism for at least a framework deal rather than a full USMCA overhaul.

This could be part of a broader Trump strategy to de-escalate global trade tensions, with implications for tariffs and cross-border trade in the weeks ahead.

Currency Markets & Geopolitical Watch
Crude oil prices hovered near the flatline as the market digested mixed supply signals:

 

1. USOIL (WTI) traded at $63.22 per barrel, down -0.3%, while Brent slipped to $65.42.
2. Traders are awaiting official US inventory data after industry data pointed to a larger-than-expected draw of 3.3 million barrels.
3. OPEC+ continues to raise output, while Canadian wildfires cause temporary disruptions, although some production has resumed.
4. The DXY Dollar Index is slightly lower on the day at 98.88, after touching an overnight high of 99.39.
5. Gold slipped -0.2% to $3,347/oz

Outlook: All Eyes on Friday’s NFP and ECB Decision
Markets are in a holding pattern, torn between optimism on the trade front and deteriorating labour market signals. The ECB decision tomorrow, followed by Friday’s US jobs report, could significantly shape expectations for global monetary policy into the summer.

While equities show resilience, undercurrents of softening growth, lingering inflation pressures, and political friction suggest volatility is far from over.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th June 2025.

ECB Rate Cut Expected Today: Inflation Drops Below 2% Target as Global Markets React.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...oSky__featured
European Central Bank Poised for Second Rate Reduction in 2025.

Financial markets are positioning for another interest rate reduction from the European Central Bank during today's highly anticipated monetary policy announcement. This potential move comes as eurozone inflation has fallen below the central bank's target threshold for the first time in months.

May Inflation Data Strengthens Case for Monetary Easing
Recent economic indicators have reinforced expectations for accommodative monetary policy across the eurozone. Consumer price inflation unexpectedly declined to 1.9% annually in May, representing a significant drop from April's 2.2% reading. This figure not only fell short of economist predictions of 2.0% but also marked the first instance of inflation dipping below the ECB's benchmark target since September 2024.

The surprising inflation deceleration reflects broader economic headwinds, including business uncertainty stemming from international trade tensions and subdued consumer spending patterns. These factors have collectively undermined pricing power across multiple economic sectors.

Core inflation metrics, which exclude volatile energy and food components, similarly demonstrated cooling trends. The measure retreated to 2.4% in May from 2.7% the previous month, falling below analyst estimates of 2.5%. Monthly core price increases registered a modest 0.1%, signalling persistent disinflationary pressures.

Recent ECB Policy Context
The central bank previously implemented a 25 basis point rate reduction during its April meeting, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Market participants are now pricing in additional easing measures for June, though expectations for subsequent cuts remain divided. A potential pause in July as policymakers assess incoming economic data and inflation trajectories.

Markets are now pricing in another cut in June, though expectations for further easing beyond that remain uncertain. A potential pause in July is gaining traction, as the ECB evaluates incoming economic data and inflation dynamics.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png


Asian Markets Show Mixed Performance Amid Global Uncertainty
Regional Stock Performance Varies
Asian equity markets displayed divergent trends Thursday as Wall Street's recent momentum showed signs of fatigue following disappointing US economic reports. Futures contracts pointed lower while commodity prices experienced declines.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index retreated 0.2% to close at 37,658.46, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined marginally by 0.1% to 8,535.10. Conversely, South Korea's Kospi index surged 2.1% to 2,829.48, buoyed by political developments as the country's new president, liberal politician Lee Jae-myung, assumed office with promises to reinvigorate North Korean dialogue and strengthen trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.9% to reach 23,856.54, while mainland China's Shanghai Composite remained essentially flat, declining less than 0.1% to 3,374.30.

US Market Reaction to Economic Data
Wednesday's US trading session concluded with mixed results as major indices responded to weaker-than-anticipated economic indicators. The S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged at 5,970.81, remaining 2.8% below its record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 42,427.74, while the Nasdaq composite advanced 0.3% to 19,460.49.

Bond markets experienced more pronounced movements as Treasury yields declined sharply following disappointing economic updates. One report indicated contraction in the US services sector, contradicting economist expectations for growth. The Institute for Supply Management survey revealed that tariff-related uncertainty was hampering business forecasting and planning capabilities.

A separate ADP employment report suggested significantly weaker private sector hiring than anticipated, potentially foreshadowing challenges in Friday's comprehensive Labor Department jobs report—one of Wall Street's most closely monitored monthly releases.

Federal Reserve Policy Implications
Trump Administration Pressure on Monetary Policy
The weaker economic data prompted increased speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. President Donald Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell on his Truth Social platform, stating: "'Too Late' Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!!"

The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rate stance throughout 2025 after implementing cuts through late 2024. The central bank's cautious approach reflects an ongoing assessment of Trump administration tariff policies and their potential economic and inflationary impacts. While lower rates could stimulate economic activity, they might also contribute to inflationary pressures.

International Trade Developments
EU-US Trade Negotiations
Trade tensions continue influencing global market sentiment as investors seek clarity on tariff policies. The European Union's chief trade negotiator, Maroš Šefčovič, met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during OECD meetings, though concrete agreements remain elusive.

Trump's steel and aluminium tariff increases took effect Wednesday, particularly impacting Canada and Mexico. Simultaneously, the administration requested ‘best offers’ from trading partners to prevent additional import levies scheduled for July implementation.

Global Diplomatic Efforts
International efforts to address trade uncertainties continue with Japan dispatching key negotiator Ryosei Akazawa for US discussions Thursday. Germany's new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is also scheduled for Washington meetings as European leaders seek to minimize trade disruption.

Currency and Commodity Markets
Foreign Exchange Movements
Currency markets reflected ongoing uncertainty with the dollar index rising 0.1% to 98.879, partially recovering from Wednesday's 0.5% decline. The dollar strengthened 0.2% against the yen to 143, while the euro remained relatively stable at $1.1411 following a 0.4% gain in the previous session.

Commodity Price Action
Precious metals and energy markets faced pressure as spot gold declined 0.2% to $3,367.30 per ounce, paring previous gains. Oil prices retreated following US inventory builds and Saudi Arabia's price cuts for Asian crude buyers, with US crude falling 0.5% to $62.58 per barrel.

Australian Economic Indicators
Consumer Spending Concerns
Australian economic data revealed persistent consumption challenges despite monetary easing efforts. Household spending increased only marginally in April, indicating consumption continues lagging income growth despite lower borrowing costs and reduced inflation.

Given that household spending represents approximately 52% of Australia's GDP, weak consumption significantly impacted first-quarter growth, which expanded by just 0.2%. The Reserve Bank of Australia previously revised consumption forecasts downward when implementing a quarter-point rate cut to 3.85% in May, and may require further downgrades.

Market expectations suggest additional RBA easing as early as July, with rates potentially reaching 2.85% by early next year as policymakers address economic headwinds.





Market Outlook and ECB Guidance
Central Bank Communication Focus
Market participants view today's ECB rate cut as virtually certain, shifting attention to President Christine Lagarde's forward guidance regarding future policy direction. Executive Board member Schnabel may have gone on record to note her preference for unchanged rates, but the dovish camp has dominated the headlines over the past weeks. On top of that, preliminary inflation reports for June and updated inflation forecasts are likely to back the arguments of the likes of Villeroy, who continues to argue for even lower rates.

If the ECB fails to deliver a dovish statement today this could upset the equity markets as well as give the euro’s upward trend additional momentum.

Alternatively, in the less likely, but possible event that the ECB keeps rates steady, it could well deliver another cut in July, when the tariff outlook may be clearer. Either way, the hurdles to additional cuts are starting to get higher and Lane's focus on being agile on rates amid heightened uncertainty suggests that the ECB could make a quick turnaround, if and when the outlook changes.

The central bank's communication strategy will prove crucial as markets navigate competing forces of disinflationary pressures, trade policy uncertainty, and varying regional economic performance. Today's decision and accompanying guidance will likely influence global monetary policy expectations and market positioning heading into the summer months.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...oSky__featured
European Central Bank Poised for Second Rate Reduction in 2025.

Financial markets are positioning for another interest rate reduction from the European Central Bank during today's highly anticipated monetary policy announcement. This potential move comes as eurozone inflation has fallen below the central bank's target threshold for the first time in months.

May Inflation Data Strengthens Case for Monetary Easing
Recent economic indicators have reinforced expectations for accommodative monetary policy across the eurozone. Consumer price inflation unexpectedly declined to 1.9% annually in May, representing a significant drop from April's 2.2% reading. This figure not only fell short of economist predictions of 2.0% but also marked the first instance of inflation dipping below the ECB's benchmark target since September 2024.

The surprising inflation deceleration reflects broader economic headwinds, including business uncertainty stemming from international trade tensions and subdued consumer spending patterns. These factors have collectively undermined pricing power across multiple economic sectors.

Core inflation metrics, which exclude volatile energy and food components, similarly demonstrated cooling trends. The measure retreated to 2.4% in May from 2.7% the previous month, falling below analyst estimates of 2.5%. Monthly core price increases registered a modest 0.1%, signalling persistent disinflationary pressures.

Recent ECB Policy Context
The central bank previously implemented a 25 basis point rate reduction during its April meeting, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Market participants are now pricing in additional easing measures for June, though expectations for subsequent cuts remain divided. A potential pause in July as policymakers assess incoming economic data and inflation trajectories.

Markets are now pricing in another cut in June, though expectations for further easing beyond that remain uncertain. A potential pause in July is gaining traction, as the ECB evaluates incoming economic data and inflation dynamics.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png


Asian Markets Show Mixed Performance Amid Global Uncertainty
Regional Stock Performance Varies
Asian equity markets displayed divergent trends Thursday as Wall Street's recent momentum showed signs of fatigue following disappointing US economic reports. Futures contracts pointed lower while commodity prices experienced declines.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index retreated 0.2% to close at 37,658.46, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined marginally by 0.1% to 8,535.10. Conversely, South Korea's Kospi index surged 2.1% to 2,829.48, buoyed by political developments as the country's new president, liberal politician Lee Jae-myung, assumed office with promises to reinvigorate North Korean dialogue and strengthen trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.9% to reach 23,856.54, while mainland China's Shanghai Composite remained essentially flat, declining less than 0.1% to 3,374.30.

US Market Reaction to Economic Data
Wednesday's US trading session concluded with mixed results as major indices responded to weaker-than-anticipated economic indicators. The S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged at 5,970.81, remaining 2.8% below its record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 42,427.74, while the Nasdaq composite advanced 0.3% to 19,460.49.

Bond markets experienced more pronounced movements as Treasury yields declined sharply following disappointing economic updates. One report indicated contraction in the US services sector, contradicting economist expectations for growth. The Institute for Supply Management survey revealed that tariff-related uncertainty was hampering business forecasting and planning capabilities.

A separate ADP employment report suggested significantly weaker private sector hiring than anticipated, potentially foreshadowing challenges in Friday's comprehensive Labor Department jobs report—one of Wall Street's most closely monitored monthly releases.

Federal Reserve Policy Implications
Trump Administration Pressure on Monetary Policy
The weaker economic data prompted increased speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. President Donald Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell on his Truth Social platform, stating: "'Too Late' Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!!"

The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rate stance throughout 2025 after implementing cuts through late 2024. The central bank's cautious approach reflects an ongoing assessment of Trump administration tariff policies and their potential economic and inflationary impacts. While lower rates could stimulate economic activity, they might also contribute to inflationary pressures.

International Trade Developments
EU-US Trade Negotiations
Trade tensions continue influencing global market sentiment as investors seek clarity on tariff policies. The European Union's chief trade negotiator, Maroš Šefčovič, met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during OECD meetings, though concrete agreements remain elusive.

Trump's steel and aluminium tariff increases took effect Wednesday, particularly impacting Canada and Mexico. Simultaneously, the administration requested ‘best offers’ from trading partners to prevent additional import levies scheduled for July implementation.

Global Diplomatic Efforts
International efforts to address trade uncertainties continue with Japan dispatching key negotiator Ryosei Akazawa for US discussions Thursday. Germany's new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is also scheduled for Washington meetings as European leaders seek to minimize trade disruption.

Currency and Commodity Markets
Foreign Exchange Movements
Currency markets reflected ongoing uncertainty with the dollar index rising 0.1% to 98.879, partially recovering from Wednesday's 0.5% decline. The dollar strengthened 0.2% against the yen to 143, while the euro remained relatively stable at $1.1411 following a 0.4% gain in the previous session.

Commodity Price Action
Precious metals and energy markets faced pressure as spot gold declined 0.2% to $3,367.30 per ounce, paring previous gains. Oil prices retreated following US inventory builds and Saudi Arabia's price cuts for Asian crude buyers, with US crude falling 0.5% to $62.58 per barrel.

Australian Economic Indicators
Consumer Spending Concerns
Australian economic data revealed persistent consumption challenges despite monetary easing efforts. Household spending increased only marginally in April, indicating consumption continues lagging income growth despite lower borrowing costs and reduced inflation.

Given that household spending represents approximately 52% of Australia's GDP, weak consumption significantly impacted first-quarter growth, which expanded by just 0.2%. The Reserve Bank of Australia previously revised consumption forecasts downward when implementing a quarter-point rate cut to 3.85% in May, and may require further downgrades.

Market expectations suggest additional RBA easing as early as July, with rates potentially reaching 2.85% by early next year as policymakers address economic headwinds.





Market Outlook and ECB Guidance
Central Bank Communication Focus
Market participants view today's ECB rate cut as virtually certain, shifting attention to President Christine Lagarde's forward guidance regarding future policy direction. Executive Board member Schnabel may have gone on record to note her preference for unchanged rates, but the dovish camp has dominated the headlines over the past weeks. On top of that, preliminary inflation reports for June and updated inflation forecasts are likely to back the arguments of the likes of Villeroy, who continues to argue for even lower rates.

If the ECB fails to deliver a dovish statement today this could upset the equity markets as well as give the euro’s upward trend additional momentum.

Alternatively, in the less likely, but possible event that the ECB keeps rates steady, it could well deliver another cut in July, when the tariff outlook may be clearer. Either way, the hurdles to additional cuts are starting to get higher and Lane's focus on being agile on rates amid heightened uncertainty suggests that the ECB could make a quick turnaround, if and when the outlook changes.

The central bank's communication strategy will prove crucial as markets navigate competing forces of disinflationary pressures, trade policy uncertainty, and varying regional economic performance. Today's decision and accompanying guidance will likely influence global monetary policy expectations and market positioning heading into the summer months.

Date: 06th June 2025.

Asian Markets Rise as Investors Await Critical US Jobs Data Amid Political Turmoil.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=gold_featured
Markets across Asia posted gains on Friday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the highly anticipated US employment report, which is expected to provide crucial insights into the health of the American economy. The May jobs data takes on heightened significance amid ongoing political tensions between President Trump and Elon Musk, with American stock futures climbing modestly while crude oil prices declined, setting the stage for another potentially volatile trading session.

Asian Markets Show Resilience
Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 0.5% to reach 37,730.67, and South Korea's Kospi surged 1.5% to 2,812.05. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.4% to 23,817.10, while China's Shanghai Composite managed a slight 0.1% increase to 3,385.91. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 remained essentially flat at 8,536.40, and India's Sensex climbed 0.6%.

US Markets Struggle Amid Political Uncertainty
US markets struggled on Thursday, with the S&P 500 declining 0.5% to 5,939.30, marking its first retreat after three consecutive days of gains. Following a strong May rally that brought the index close to record highs, the benchmark has recently stalled. The Dow Jones fell 0.3% to 42,319.74, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% to 19,298.45.



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Market attention turns to the upcoming May jobs report from the Labor Department, with analysts anticipating weaker job growth compared to April. Employment strength has been crucial for supporting the US economy, though concerns mount that uncertainty surrounding President Trump's fluctuating tariff policies might cause employers to halt hiring decisions.

Musk-Trump Feud Rocks Markets
The market's attention was dominated by an explosive public confrontation between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump that sent shockwaves through the investment community. Musk indicated he would seek to de-escalate tensions after their alliance deteriorated into an open battle on Thursday, when Musk demanded Trump's impeachment and suggested the president was concealing Jeffrey Epstein-related documents due to potential personal involvement.

Trump retaliated by threatening to terminate the tech mogul's lucrative government contracts, responding to Musk's persistent calls for Republicans to reject the president's key tax package over deficit concerns. The hostilities briefly intensified when Trump announced plans to discontinue SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft program.

However, Musk quickly backtracked after receiving conciliatory advice from social media users. 'Good advice,' Musk replied to calls for cooling off, adding 'Ok, we won't decommission Dragon.' When billionaire Bill Ackman encouraged them to reconcile 'for the benefit of our great country,' Musk acknowledged, 'You're not wrong.'

This dramatic split between two figures who previously collaborated on government restructuring has created uncomfortable divisions within the Republican Party, forcing lawmakers to navigate between Musk's financial influence and Trump's political dominance. House Speaker Mike Johnson attempted to mediate, stating that 'policy differences shouldn't be personal' while maintaining his friendship with Musk. The White House has reportedly scheduled a call today with Musk to defuse tensions.

Tesla Bears the Brunt
Tesla shares experienced their steepest decline since March, falling 14% on Thursday as the Trump-Musk dispute intensified. The stock briefly plummeted 18% during trading—its worst intraday performance since September 2020—before recovering slightly. By Thursday's close, Tesla had dropped roughly 30% year-to-date, falling below the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold.

The decline began Tuesday after Musk denounced the GOP tax legislation as a 'disgusting abomination' and urged his X followers to 'kill the bill.' Investment analysts directly linked the stock's performance to the political feud. Paul Hickey from Bespoke Investment Group warned that Musk's deteriorating relationships across the political spectrum could trigger 'punitive actions' against his companies.

Trump publicly expressed disappointment with Musk's opposition, claiming the billionaire previously understood and supported the legislation until learning about potential EV mandate cuts. Musk disputed these assertions on social media.

Mixed Corporate Performance
Weekly unemployment claims exceeded forecasts on Thursday, reaching an eight-month peak despite remaining historically low. This coincided with Procter & Gamble announcing plans to eliminate up to 7,000 positions over two years, sending its shares down 1.9%. Brown-Forman experienced its worst trading day since 1972, tumbling 17.9%.

However, some companies bucked the negative trend. MongoDB stood out among gainers, jumping 12.8% following better-than-expected earnings. Circle Internet Group made a spectacular debut, soaring 168.5% on its first NYSE trading day.

Oil Markets Stabilize on Diplomatic Progress

Crude oil prices stabilized following Thursday's gains, buoyed by improved US-China relations after the leaders' phone conversation. Brent crude held around $65 per barrel, positioning for its first weekly increase since mid-May, while WTI remained near $63.

The Trump-Xi discussion focused on resolving tariff disputes and rare earth mineral supply issues, providing relief to markets concerned about demand destruction from trade wars. Oil has declined nearly 20% since Trump's January inauguration due to these trade tensions.

Market volatility has decreased since mid-May as traders balance various factors: diplomatic progress, seasonal demand increases, Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, and potential OPEC+ production increases. Analysts suggest the panic-driven selloff risk has diminished, with Saudi Arabia's stance on production restoration crucial when OPEC+ meets July 6 to set output levels.

Precious Metals Rally Continues
Silver approached 13-year peaks while platinum reached two-year highs, reflecting growing industrial metal demand. Silver rose following Thursday's 4.5% surge that pushed it above $36 per ounce—levels unseen since February 2012. Platinum gained 1.2% to $1,154.73.



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The rally stems from technical momentum and improved fundamentals, including strong Indian silver demand and recovering Chinese platinum appetite. While both metals typically follow gold's haven appeal during uncertainty, their industrial applications provide additional support through solar panel and catalytic converter demand.

ETF holdings show positive momentum, with platinum funds growing over 3% since mid-May and silver funds expanding nearly 8% since February. Palladium also participated in the metals rally, climbing 1.2%. Gold advanced 0.5% to $3,368.79, targeting a 2.4% weekly gain.

Looking Ahead
The S&P 500's recovery hopes rest partly on expectations that Trump will reduce tariffs through new trade agreements. The index has rebounded strongly from a 20% decline two months ago and now sits just 3.3% below its all-time peak. However, the Musk-Trump feud introduces new uncertainty into markets previously focused on trade negotiations.

The 10-year Treasury yield remained steady at 4.40%, reflecting growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to support an economy potentially weakened by trade tensions. Investors await Friday's employment data following unexpected unemployment claims increases that boosted rate cut expectations.

In currency markets, the dollar strengthened to 143.77 yen from 143.49, while the euro weakened to $1.1438 from $1.1448, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties and shifting investor sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 09th June 2025.

Switzerland Witness Deflation For First Time 4-Years!

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The Swiss Franc is the second best-performing currency of 2025, however, economists advise the Swiss will witness deflation. The country has experienced deflation in the past and even negative interest rates. The Euro, on the other hand, is the best performing of the year, so can the currency take advantage of the deflationary conditions?

Switzerland Inflation And the Swiss Franc
Switzerland’s latest Inflation figures fall below 0.00% for the first time since March 2021. Between February 2020 to March 2021, the country saw deflation conditions reaching a low of 1.3%. During the period of deflation, the Swiss Franc fell 4.10% against the Euro and the Swiss National Bank fell to 0.75%.
So far in 2025, the price of the Swiss Franc Index has risen 8.69% mainly benefiting from the market’s risk appetite taking a sharp decline. In addition to this, investors look to mitigate risk away from the US Dollar due to the rising trade deficit. However, over the past month the VIX, one of the market’s main indications of risk, has fallen 20%. In addition to this, the Federal Reserve surprisingly remains reluctant to cut interest rates and follow the market’s trend. Therefore, investors are questioning if the price of the Swiss Franc is at a good level to witness a change in trend. According to economists, this is possible if inflation continues to decline.

Swiss consumer prices fell 0.1% year-on-year in May 2025, matching forecasts after flat growth in April. The drop was led by sharper declines in transport (-3.7%), food and beverages (-0.3%), and healthcare (-0.2%). Prices also fell for household goods, clothing, and recreation. In contrast, housing, energy, and hospitality costs rose at a slower pace, while communication inflation held steady at 1.0%.

The European Central Bank Takes a Hawkish Tone!
A batch of European economic data was released last week, showing that EU GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, beating the expected 0.3%. Year-on-year, GDP rose by 1.5%, exceeding the 1.2% forecast.
However, analysts caution that these figures do not yet reflect the effects of recent US export tariffs, which could lead to a notable downturn in upcoming periods.
European Central Bank President Mrs Lagarde told journalists that the decision to cut interest rates was supported by almost all members, with only one dissenting. She highlighted that the regulator is now in a good position and views its interest rates as neutral. This suggests a possible pause in July unless unexpected economic developments arise. Goldman Sachs advises the ECB may now pause for up to 5 months, particularly if the economic growth continues.

Currently, the Euro is the best-performing currency due to being the investor's first option to mitigate risk away from the US Dollar. In addition to this, European shareholders in US equities are now starting to hedge the risk of a weakening US Dollar which can raise gains from stock growth. Lastly, investors are increasing their exposure to the Euro due to its expansionary fiscal policy. An expansionary fiscal policy has not been seen in the EU for over a decade, other than spending related to COVID. The Euro Index is trading 9.48% higher in 2025.

EURCHF - Technical Analysis
The EURCHF has taken a dip during this morning’s Asian and European Sessions. However, in the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the exchange rate remains above the 75-period Moving Average. On the 3-Minute timeframe, the 200-Period Moving Average is currently at 0.93702. If the price rises above this level, buy signals potentially can again materialise.

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EURCHF 30-Minutes

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Despite rising 8.69% in 2025, the Swiss Franc faces deflation risks as inflation fell –0.1% YoY in May.
2. The Euro is the top performer, up 9.48%, boosted by fiscal expansion, USD hedging, and strong economic data.
3. The ECB cut rates but signalled a neutral stance, hinting at a pause in July unless conditions change.
4. EURCHF holds above major moving averages; a break above 0.93702 may trigger fresh buy signals.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10thJune 2025.

Market on Edge As Trade Negotiation Deadline Approaches!

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Investors are realising that the ‘temporary pause’ on reciprocal tariffs is slowly approaching its deadline triggering a sense of uncertainty. This is something that is reflected in today’s pricing, particularly the stock market and the US Dollar. Clearer projections for the market’s price movements are likely to be available when the outcome of today’s meeting between the US and China comes to a close. For China, the current deal with the US will end on August 14th and for most other countries on July 8th.

Will the US and China Agree on a New Deal?
The US and China will continue negotiations this morning in London at 10:00 local time. Yesterday, the negotiations lasted more than 6 hours, but beared no fruit. Due to this, the market at times saw large retracements and for some assets even corrections. Currently, the market pricing is not conveying any signs of optimism but a clear ‘wait and see’ stance.

Kevin Hassett, the White House Economic Adviser, yesterday spoke with journalists and sounded quite optimistic. The President also commented that while China is challenging to negotiate with, reaching a deal is both possible and crucial for both sides. The US leading negotiator, Secretary Scott Bessent, will leave the UK for the US this evening. As a result, today’s negotiations will be vital!

According to reports, currently, the main sticking point is China’s raw earth material which the US wishes to obtain easier access and China is looking to get more access to US technology and plane parts. According to Kevin Hassett, the US is willing to loosen restrictions on tech, but there have been no reports from the Chinese government as of yet.

NASDAQ (USA100)
The NASDAQ during this morning’s Asian session saw a significant increase rising more than 0.70%, but thereafter fell to the day’s low. This up- price movement clearly illustrates the market’s feeling of uncertainty while the US and China are yet to put pen to paper. On the one hand, the market is optimistic as the two countries have recently managed to agree on a temporary trade deal. The fact that such high ranks of participants from both sides indicates the seriousness of the intentions and the desire to reach a comprehensive agreement around bilateral trade.

In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to maintain a bullish bias regardless of today’s correction back to $21,746.05. The price continues to remain above the 75-period EMA and 100-period SMA. The price is trading below the VWAP so far, but this will become more important once the US session opens. In terms of price waves, the asset continues to see higher highs and lows. The price, however, will all depend on today's negotiations.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNASDAQ 1-Hour Chart

Lastly, a positive factor for the NASDAQ is that the Put and Call ratio is again declining after slightly rising the week before. In addition to this, the VIX also continues to fall while 62% of the NASDAQ’s components are increasing in value.

US Dollar and Gold
The US Dollar is currently increasing in value and has risen to its highest price since May 30th. Even though the price of the US Dollar and Gold is traditionally inversely correlated, both assets are simultaneously increasing. However, if an agreement is signed by the US and China, Gold may lose momentum as the market’s sentiment improves. Currently, the US Dollar is the day’s best-performing currency.

The US Dollar Index has risen 0.44% so far. The second best-performing currency is the Japanese Yen while the worst is the British Pound (GBP). A key factor for the US Dollar will also be tomorrow’s US inflation rate. The market currently expects US inflation to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. This would reduce the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before autumn.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUSDX 3-Hour Chart
Key Takeaway Points:

1. The upcoming expiration of the tariff pause (July 8 globally, August 14 for China) is fueling investor caution, reflected in volatile stock and USD pricing.
2. High-level negotiations in London continue, with no agreement yet. Today’s outcome is expected to strongly influence market direction. The US representatives remain optimistic supporting the market.
3. Despite early gains, the index corrected back, showing investor indecision. Technicals remain bullish, but momentum hinges on trade talk results.
4. The USD leads global currencies, buoyed by risk-off sentiment and expectations of rising inflation, while gold also climbs despite typical inverse correlation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th June 2025.

Dow Fails to Break Resistance Ahead of Key Bond Auction and CPI!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...file=inflation
The Dow Jones rose to its highest price since March 2025 as the US and China agreed on a framework to lower tariffs. The comments from both the US and Chinese negotiators kept to an optimistic tone, reassuring markets of a deal. However, a key factor for today will be the US inflation rate and two US Bond auctions. The Treasury will sell $39B in 10-year notes Wednesday and $22B in 30-year bonds Thursday.

Dow Jones Rises on US-China Optimism
The Dow Jones on Tuesday rose 0.20% from market open to market close. However, the impulse wave after a decline early in the day measured 0.70%. The Dow Jones continues to honour the current trend lines which act as a support level. The bullish price movement is being given by the US-China trade negotiations in London and the optimistic tone.

So far we know the agreement will mean China will ease export restrictions on rare earth materials essential for electronics and green tech. In exchange, the US will relax some export controls on high-tech items like semiconductors and jet-engine parts. As a result, the NASDAQ, SNP500 and Dow Jones rose in value.

However, even with the latest upward price movement, the index continues to find resistance at the $42,959.00 level and fell 0.20% on Wednesday 11th.

Dow Jones Price Action and Technical Analysis
The main concern for technical analysts is that the Dow Jones on the daily chart is witnessing divergence. This means the price has risen to a higher high, but the RSI remains at a lower low. Simultaneously, as mentioned above the price finds resistance at the $42,959.00 level and has failed to break above this level on 4 occasions.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUSA30 1-Hour Chart


Therefore investors remain on edge and prepared for an alternative price movement regardless of the price remaining above most Moving Averages and trend lines. Currently, some risk indicators point to a slight risk-off sentiment, however, no major red flags. The Put/Call ratio has fallen which is positive for the Dow Jones, and the VIX has risen which is negative. The High Low Index also points to a positive investor sentiment as 5 stocks remain at 52 week highs while zero are at a 52 week low.

Due to not obtaining a clear one-sided signal, investors will await for the Bond Auction and Inflation Rate to determine the future price movement.

Today’s Bond Auction and Inflation Rate Impact On The Dow Jones
The Treasury will sell $39 billion in 10-year Bonds Wednesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. Traditionally, investors do not class bond auctions as an event which can trigger high volatility. However, given the increasing debt scenario, investors will pay particular attention. If the bond values are lower than previous auctions and expectations, investors may become spooked triggering a lower risk appetite. A poorly received auction (low demand, high yields) can have a negative effect on both the Dow Jones and the US Dollar. However, it can have a positive impact on Gold prices, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.jpgUS Budget Deficit


Economists expect the US CPI (inflation rate) to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. Over the past 3-months, the inflation rate has consecutively fallen below expectations. If the inflation rate again falls below expectations, the Dow Jones may find enough support to retest the current resistance level. Whereas, if the inflation rate rises to 2.5% or above, the Dow Jones can witness a potential quick selloff.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Optimism from the trade deal boosted the Dow, with China easing rare earth export restrictions in exchange for US tech export relaxations.
2. The Dow struggles at the $42,959 resistance level, with technical divergence signalling potential price shifts.
3. Positive sentiment is seen with 5 Dow stocks at 52-week highs, but mixed risk indicators suggest caution.
4. Bond auctions and inflation data will influence future market movement, with higher inflation possibly triggering a selloff.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th June 2025.

Lower US Inflation Pressures The Dollar Amongst Other Developments!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...le=US_featured
The US Dollar falls to its lowest price since April 22nd due to US inflation reading lower than previous expectations. The US Dollar Index fell a total of 0.35% on Wednesday and today’s price gap saw the index open a further 0.15% lower. The lower inflation data is applying renewed pressure on the currency which stands as the worst performing of the month. The best-performing currency of the past 24 hours is the Japanese Yen.

USDJPY - Lower Inflation Data Prompts Bearish Bias
The Consumer Price Index and Core figure (excluding food and energy) for May rose 0.1% lower than previous expectations. As a result, the US inflation rate rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, instead of 2.5% and the core inflation rate stayed the same (2.8%). The lower inflation rate is welcomed by consumers and even shareholders, however, the reading is negative for the US Dollar.

The US Dollar quickly fell in value without witnessing any noticeable retracements or attempts to regain bullish momentum. This is largely due to a higher possibility of cuts, however, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its dovish rhetoric. According to the Chicago Exchange, there was a 14% chance of a rate cut in July before the CPI announcement and a 19% chance after the announcement.

Therefore, the possibility of rate cuts remains low for the foreseeable future. Therefore, why has the US Dollar taken such a large hit for the weaker inflation data?

Additionally Pressure on The US Dollar!
The main price driver for the downward trend is, without a doubt, the weaker inflation data. However, other factors are also contributing to the bearishness of the US Dollar. One of these factors is the rioting which originally occurred in Los Angeles, which is now spreading to other regions including Chicago. These do not have a direct effect on the economy but can dampen economic sentiment and activity if this continues for a prolonged period.

A key factor is also the Treasury which sold $39 billion in 10-year bonds at a higher-than-expected value, indicating strong investor demand despite various market concerns. Due to the higher demand the bond yields fell from 4.5000 to 4.4030. The lower bond yields are known to be negative for the US Dollar but simultaneously find investors relieved.

Another factor which is yet to take centre stage is the possibility of Israel, a key ally of the US, striking Iran. According to reports, the US is advising various officials and offices in the region, particularly Iraq, to evacuate. Israel is reportedly considering a unilateral strike on Iran as talks between Washington and Tehran near a preliminary agreement on uranium enrichment. Due to this Oil prices rose close to a 10-week high, but this development is yet to become a serious concern.

USDJPY - The Japanese Yen Is the Best Performing Currency of Thursday!
The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency of the day followed by Investors, the Swiss Franc and the Euro. These 3 currencies have been the main beneficiaries of the Dollar’s decline in 2025.

The market continues to focus on the further actions of the Bank of Japan. Analysts agree that at the next meeting, officials will leave the interest rate unchanged but may continue hiking thereafter. Commenting on the current situation, the head of the regulator notes the uncertainty in global trade, which hinders the ‘hawkish’ cycle due to the risks of accelerating inflation.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUSDJPY 30-Minute Charts


The USDJPY is trading 0.40% lower during Thursday’s Asian session and trading below the 200-period SMA on the 5-minute chart. However, currently, the exchange rate retraces slightly higher as the EU session starts. If the price falls back below 143.770, sell signals are likely to again materialize.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. The US Dollar falls to its lowest since April 22 due to lower-than-expected inflation, with the Dollar Index dropping 0.35%.
2. May CPI rose 0.1% less than expected, causing inflation to rise to 2.4%, weakening the Dollar.
3. Despite lower inflation, the Fed's dovish stance keeps rate cut expectations low.
4. Other factors pressuring the USD include lower bond yields, domestic unrest, and rising oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th June 2025.

Israel Attacks Iran in An Overnight Strike: Oil Rises 13%!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...le=war_feature
Israel launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, military leadership and key Iranian scientists according to reports. The attack took place overnight and involved more than 200 Israeli fighter jets which bombed more than 100 targets. The US has made a statement publicly advising the country was not involved. In addition to this, other key partners such as the UK and France are pushing for de-escalation. How is the market reacting so far?

Crude Oil Prices Jump 13%
The asset which is seeing the most volatility is understandably Crude Oil as Iran is the 7th highest producer of Crude Oil after Iraq. Currently, the price of Crude Oil is trading 5.00% higher, but earlier in the day it was 13% higher. Crude Oil rose to a high of $77.64 per barrel and to its highest price since January.

Due to extremely high volatility in a short period, it is understandable that the asset became oversold triggering a decline in the past 3 hours. Currently, the bearish momentum continues to remain the driving force in the short term. The 200-period SMA continues to act as a trend-line meaning the price may continue to decline to $70.50 before finding support. However, this would also depend on the upcoming developments.

According to reports, the Israeli army not only attacked nuclear facilities, military leadership and key Iranian scientists, but also the country’s ability to instantly retaliate. As a result, Iran was limited to using drones to retaliate. According to army experts, drones can travel long distances and cause significant damage, but they travel extremely slowly. The Israeli government is advising they are currently shooting down drones over Jordan and Syria.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngCrude Oil Daily Chart

If the conflict was to escalate, the price of Oil could regain bullish momentum as it would trigger a fear of supply chain disruptions and lower production levels.

SNP500 - Developments Trigger Low Risk Appetite!
The SNP500 fell as much as 1.98% before retracing higher. Currently, the SNP500 is trading 1.20% lower and the NASDAQ 1.33%. The downward price movement is being triggered by 2 factors. The first is the conflict between Israel and Iran prompting a lower risk appetite. The second is the significantly higher oil prices which can apply upward pressure on inflation.

The future price movements of the SNP500 and stock market in general will depend on how the current situation escalates. If the two countries escalate, the price of Oil may continue to rise while the stock market potentially could take a larger hit. If downward pressure increases, a key support level for the index could be seen at $5,791.24. This level may act as a target for individuals looking to speculate downward momentum in the medium-term.

Traders should note that even though the index is yet to witness significant lasting volatility, most risk indicators point to a ‘risk off’ sentiment. For example, the VIX Index currently trades 9% higher.

Gold - Safe Haven Asset Witness Increased Demand!
The price of Gold has not only risen due to the Israeli strikes on Iran, but has been increasing in value for 3 consecutive days. Originally, lower inflation data drove the upward price movement, prompting a weaker US Dollar. Gold is inversely correlated with the US Dollar. However, now the commodity’s safe haven status is coming into play as institutions look to lower the risk of their portfolios.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Oil prices spiked 13% due to the Israeli strikes, reaching $77.64, with potential decline to $70.50 if bearish momentum continues.
2. The SNP500 fell 1.98% as the conflict escalated, and rising oil prices raised inflation concerns.
3. Gold has been increasing for the last three days, driven by the weaker US Dollar and its safe-haven appeal amid the crisis.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th June 2025.

Geopolitical Tensions Ease Slightly as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Day Four.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=risk_featured
Geopolitical Tensions Ease Slightly as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Day Four

Tensions between Israel and Iran persisted into a fourth consecutive day on Monday, despite global appeals for restraint. The ongoing conflict has deepened following a series of reciprocal strikes. Iran launched a missile barrage that reportedly killed five in Israel after Israeli forces targeted nuclear and military infrastructure in central Iran over the weekend. The Israeli military confirmed it carried out a widespread offensive on Sunday, striking Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the Quds Force, and army assets in Tehran.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking in parliament, urged for national unity and reiterated Iran's commitment to its nuclear ambitions, even as diplomatic efforts intensified on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada.

Markets initially reacted sharply to the escalating crisis, with oil prices spiking up to 5.5% to $78.32 a barrel before retracing gains. Brent settled near $75, and WTI hovered around $74, as traders assessed the risk of supply disruption. Israel's strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field temporarily halted a production platform, adding to energy market jitters. However, analysts note the greater threat lies in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows. Any Iranian attempt to block the waterway could trigger a dramatic surge in energy prices.



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Despite these concerns, some analysts remain cautious. ‘Unless the Strait of Hormuz is closed or Houthi forces in Yemen intensify attacks on shipping, we don’t expect another significant leg higher in crude,’ said Robert Rennie of Westpac Banking Corp.

Volatility has spread beyond commodities. Oil spiked more than 13% on Friday before stabilizing, while gold initially rallied on safe-haven demand. However, markets appear to be dialling back risk premiums. Gold prices have slipped 0.6% to $3,410 on Monday, reflecting reduced appetite for safety.

Safe Haven Flows Retreat on Tentative Hopes of De-escalation

The decline in gold is partly attributed to signs that Iran may be open to diplomacy. Iran’s Foreign Minister stated the country would consider returning to talks if Israeli strikes cease. This has prompted a retreat in safe-haven assets, and investors are beginning to discount the likelihood of a broader regional war — at least for now. While the geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, markets seem to be shifting focus back to macro fundamentals.



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Stocks Rebound as Risk Sentiment Stabilizes

European equities moved higher, with:

 

1. Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.4%
2. Germany's DAX gaining 0.4%
3. France’s CAC 40 advancing 0.5%
4. UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.2%
5. Spain’s IBEX climbing 0.7%
6. Italy’s FTSE MIB rising 0.6%

US futures also reflected cautious optimism, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.5%. The market appears to be moving past last week's geopolitical headlines, highlighting its tendency to quickly refocus on the next catalyst.

Macro Outlook: Central Banks in Focus Amid Rising Uncertainty

The Israel-Iran conflict is overshadowing a week heavy with central bank decisions. The FOMC, Bank of England, and others are expected to hold rates steady. While softer U.S. inflation prints over recent months gave the Fed room to pause, the conflict introduces a new inflationary risk via higher energy costs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to shift to a more dovish stance despite market hopes, as rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty may reinforce caution.

Key attention will be on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which could show upward tweaks to growth but limited changes elsewhere. The ECB, meanwhile, remains on track to hold rates in July, though escalating geopolitical risks could sway sentiment. In the UK, the BoE is also expected to stay on hold despite easing wage growth, with inflation expectations still running hot.

Switzerland may deliver another 25 bp rate cut amid deflationary pressures and a strong franc, though further FX interventions remain unlikely due to U.S. sensitivities.

Asia-Pacific Outlook: Quiet on Policy, Watchful on Trade

Central banks in Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines are expected to maintain current policy stances this week, except for the Philippines, which may opt for a 25 bp cut. Japan’s BoJ is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50% and stick with QT plans. Upcoming data on trade, machine orders, and CPI will be closely watched, though tariff uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th June 2025.

Global Markets Stabilise Despite Middle East Tensions, While Oil Supply Set to Outpace Demand.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...c8d08b41033ad2

 

1. Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions.
2. Oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but longer-term trends point to ample supply.
3. Bond yields reflect diverging views between inflation fears and safe-haven demand.
4. The IEA’s supply forecast reinforces a bearish tilt for oil if geopolitical risks are contained.
5. Gold steadied as a hedge against growing uncertainty.

Risk appetite improved overnight, with Wall Street largely brushing off intensifying tensions between Israel and Iran. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, Israel has so far limited its retaliatory actions to nuclear and military facilities, sparing key oil infrastructure. This containment helped ease energy market fears, leading to a pullback in oil prices and renewed interest in equities.

The NASDAQ led the gains, climbing 1.52%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.94% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75%. Meanwhile, market volatility dropped, with the VIX index falling 7.6% to 19.23.

However, US Treasury yields moved higher, pressured by investor concerns that a broader regional conflict could still emerge, potentially pushing oil prices and inflation higher. A solid 20-year bond auction failed to cap the rise in yields. The 10-year yield climbed 5.4 basis points to 4.45%, while the freshly auctioned 20-year yield ticked up 6 bps to 4.945%. The 2-year yield was up 2 bps to 3.966%, staying below the key 4.00% threshold.

The US Dollar index (DXY) edged higher to 98.09, rebounding from a session low of 97.685.

European & Asian Markets React Cautiously
In early Tuesday trade, European stocks opened lower, reflecting cautious sentiment after a mixed session in Asia. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.6% higher after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held interest rates steady and announced a tapering of bond purchases for the next fiscal year.

In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.6%, weighed down by Middle East tensions and fears that the US could be drawn into the conflict. European indices followed suit, with the DAX and FTSE 100 down 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. US stock futures were also in negative territory.

Bank of Japan Holds Rates, Tapers Bond Purchases
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that interest rates could rise if Japan’s economic outlook improves, but warned of risks in both directions for inflation. The central bank confirmed it would reduce monthly bond purchases by JPY 400 billion until fiscal year-end and by JPY 200 billion per quarter thereafter. Ueda cautioned that cutting bond buying too rapidly could destabilize markets.



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Gold Steadies as Traders Track Conflict and Trump Calls for Tehran Evacuation
Gold steadied today after earlier gains, driven by rising geopolitical tension and safe-haven demand. Bullion briefly surged by 0.5% to cross the $3,400 mark after former US President Donald Trump posted a call for the immediate evacuation of Tehran on social media, escalating investor anxiety over the Israel-Iran conflict. Hours before, Trump had urged Iran’s leadership to agree to a new nuclear deal, further fueling market uncertainty.

Last week, gold surged nearly 4% as Israel initiated military strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, triggering fears of a wider Middle East war. This compounded the upward momentum already driven by economic concerns stemming from aggressive US trade policies. Currently trading about $100 below its April record high, gold is on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain—marking its strongest streak in more than two decades. Silver also advanced, while platinum was little changed and palladium edged lower.

IEA: Oil Supply to Outpace Demand Despite Geopolitical Risks
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted that global oil supply will significantly exceed demand in 2025, easing concerns about the potential disruption caused by the Israel-Iran conflict.

In its annual report, the IEA projected oil production to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) to reach 104.9mn b/d, while demand is expected to increase by only 720,000 b/d to 103.8mn b/d. This imbalance is anticipated to lead to rising inventories throughout the year.

The supply growth will stem from both OPEC+, which is reversing previous cuts, and non-OPEC+ producers, expected to contribute an additional 1.4mn b/d in 2025.

‘In the absence of major disruptions, oil markets in 2025 appear well supplied,’ said the IEA.

Oil storage levels have already surged by an average of 1mn b/d since February, with a sharp rise of 93 million barrels in May alone. However, total inventories remain 90 million barrels below year-ago levels.

While the IEA acknowledged the geopolitical risks posed by the Israel-Iran conflict, it noted that Iranian oil flows have not been impacted so far. Although Iran temporarily suspended output at the South Pars gas field following an Israeli airstrike, the extent of production damage remains unclear. Other key sites, like the Shahran refinery near Tehran, were reportedly targeted without significant damage.

Long-Term Outlook: Supply to Outpace Demand Through 2030
In a separate report looking ahead to 2030, the IEA predicts global oil demand will plateau at 105.5mn b/d, rising just 2.5mn b/d from 2024 levels. Meanwhile, global production capacity is expected to expand by over 5mn b/d to 114.7mn b/d.

A key factor behind the demand slowdown is China, where oil consumption is now expected to peak by 2027, driven by surging electric vehicle (EV) adoption, the expansion of high-speed rail, and increased natural gas-powered trucking.

This is the first time the IEA has set a firm date for peak oil demand in China, aligning with recent projections from major Chinese oil firms.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th June 2025.

Global Markets Rattled by Escalating Middle East Tensions and Oil Price Surge.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...srael_featured
Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility so far today as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran spooked investors, pushing oil prices higher and sending mixed signals across equities, currencies, and bond markets.

Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Conflict Deepens
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s sharp 4% surge. US benchmark crude climbed to $75 per barrel. Investors are increasingly concerned that the conflict could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passageway for global crude exports. Although previous regional tensions have led to brief oil price spikes without long-term supply issues, the intensifying rhetoric this time is triggering stronger reactions.

Trump Issues Dire Warning to Iran
Investor fears were exacerbated after former President Donald Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran, escalating tensions further. Within hours, Trump went from advocating a nuclear deal to demanding ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,’ hinting at imminent US intervention. As geopolitical risks soared, demand for traditional safe havens such as the US dollar and Treasuries spiked.

Investors were also left disappointed by the lack of progress at the recent G7 summit in Canada. The group failed to make headway on trade issues, just weeks ahead of Trump’s July deadline for additional tariffs. Trump criticized both Japan and the EU for being ‘tough’ negotiators and for not offering satisfactory deals.

US Markets Close Lower; Asian Markets Mixed; Japan Shrugs Off Export Slump
Wall Street sank under the weight of surging oil prices and disappointing US retail sales data. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 5,982.72, the Dow dropped 0.7% to 42,215.80, and the Nasdaq slid 0.9% to 19,521.09. Weak consumer spending raised concerns that the backbone of the US economy might be faltering. Additionally, solar stocks took a hit after speculation that Congress may phase out clean energy tax credits. Enphase Energy dropped 24%, while First Solar lost 17.9%.

Asian equities painted a mixed picture. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% to 38,803.10 despite data showing an 11% drop in Japanese exports to the US, primarily due to tariffs on autos. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2%, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%, and Australia's ASX 200 lost 0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi managed a 0.6% gain.

Fed Meeting in Focus; Minimal Forecast Adjustments Expected
The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting, with markets broadly expecting no rate changes. Forecast updates due Wednesday are likely to include modest GDP upgrades but little change to inflation and unemployment projections. The Fed’s previous dot plot suggested two rate cuts per year through mid-2027, and little deviation is expected in the June update.

Dollar Finds Footing Amid Global Jitters
The US dollar regained its safe-haven appeal, rebounding nearly 1% against the yen, Swiss franc, and euro since late last week. While structural challenges tied to Trump’s trade policies have weighed on the greenback in 2025, investors continue to favour the dollar in times of global stress. The dollar edged down 0.2% to 144.90 yen on Wednesday, while the euro ticked up 0.2% to $1.150, and the British pound strengthened to $1.346 following softer-than-expected UK inflation data.

Outlook: Risk Sentiment Hinges on Geopolitics and Fed Clarity
Markets remain on edge as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show no sign of abating. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Fed’s policy statement and projections for clues on the central bank’s outlook. As uncertainty swirls, volatility is expected to persist across commodities, currencies, and equities in the short term.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th June 2025.

Fed Members Opt For Hawkish Stace Amid Rising Inflation!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...le=us_Featured
Gold and the US stock market declines as a result of yesterday’s Federal Reserve rate decision and comments. Since yesterday’s open Gold is trading 1.19% lower, the SNP500 0.35% lower, while the real winner seems to be the US Dollar. Why is the US Dollar on the rise?

The Federal Reserve and US Dollar
The US Dollar Index is trading 0.55% higher from the time the Federal Reserve’s rate decision was made public. The reason for the rise in the US Dollar is the hawkish stance of the central bank. According to the Fed’s report, of the 19 members, seven members believe the monetary policy will not change at all in 2025. Previously, the number of members supporting this option was four.

However, according to economists, the most likely outcome is two rate cuts in 2025. The first takes place in September (0.25%) and the second later in the year. According to Fed Chairman, Jerome Powells, the interest rates will continue to depend on the upcoming data. Although, the data according to the Federal Reserve is going to prompt a hawkish stance. According to the Fed’s projections, economic growth is likely to fall to 1.4% while inflation will rise to 3%. This is due to tariffs and higher oil prices.

This increases the possibility of no rate cuts in 2025. Nonetheless, the employment sector will hold the key if the Federal Open Market Committee starts to consider a cut. Yes, the Fed will be reluctant to cut rates while inflation rises, however, they may not be willing to risk an imbalance in the employment sector or even a recession. Currently, the Unemployment Rate in the US has remained at 4.2% for the past three months. On the other hand, the number of unemployment claims added weekly continues to slowly rise.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUS Dollar Index 1-Hour Chart


Today is a bank holiday in the US and no major economic data will be made public. Due to this, investors may also see slightly lower volatility levels due to less orders. Tomorrow the US will release the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is known to trigger moderate volatility levels.

Currently, all indices are trading lower while risk indicators trade higher. As a result, the US Dollar is also benefiting from a risk-off appetite within the market. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency while the New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the worst.

Lastly, investors should note that the possibility of the US attacking Iran seems to be increasing. Democrats insist that Trump must seek congressional approval before engaging in potential military action against Iran. Experts advise the possibility of US involvement is currently 50:50. When the US previously bombed Libya in 2016 the US Dollar significantly declined.

US Dollar Index - Technical Analysis
The price of the US Dollar Index is trading higher this morning but it is forming a head and shoulder pattern. This provides a slight indication of a retracement, however, if the price rises above 98.67, the head and shoulder pattern will no longer be relevant. The price on a 2-hour timeframe is also trading above the 75-Period EMA indicating buyers are regaining control. The next resistance level on the index can be seen at 99.30.

Key Takeaway Levels:

1. The US Dollar Index rose 0.55% after the Fed signalled fewer rate cuts in 2025, with seven members now expecting no cuts, up from four.
2. Gold is down 1.19% and the SNP500 is down 0.35% following the Fed’s decision, reflecting market risk-off sentiment.
3. The Fed projects slower growth (1.4%) and higher inflation (3%) due to tariffs and oil prices, but the job market remains a key factor for future rate decisions.
4. Growing speculation about potential US military action against Iran adds uncertainty, supporting the USD as a safe-haven asset.

Date: 19th June 2025.

Fed Members Opt For Hawkish Stace Amid Rising Inflation!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...le=us_Featured
Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Gold and the US stock market declines as a result of yesterday’s Federal Reserve rate decision and comments. Since yesterday’s open Gold is trading 1.19% lower, the SNP500 0.35% lower, while the real winner seems to be the US Dollar. Why is the US Dollar on the rise?

The Federal Reserve and US Dollar

The US Dollar Index is trading 0.55% higher from the time the Federal Reserve’s rate decision was made public. The reason for the rise in the US Dollar is the hawkish stance of the central bank. According to the Fed’s report, of the 19 members, seven members believe the monetary policy will not change at all in 2025. Previously, the number of members supporting this option was four.

However, according to economists, the most likely outcome is two rate cuts in 2025. The first takes place in September (0.25%) and the second later in the year. According to Fed Chairman, Jerome Powells, the interest rates will continue to depend on the upcoming data. Although, the data according to the Federal Reserve is going to prompt a hawkish stance. According to the Fed’s projections, economic growth is likely to fall to 1.4% while inflation will rise to 3%. This is due to tariffs and higher oil prices.

This increases the possibility of no rate cuts in 2025. Nonetheless, the employment sector will hold the key if the Federal Open Market Committee starts to consider a cut. Yes, the Fed will be reluctant to cut rates while inflation rises, however, they may not be willing to risk an imbalance in the employment sector or even a recession. Currently, the Unemployment Rate in the US has remained at 4.2% for the past three months. On the other hand, the number of unemployment claims added weekly continues to slowly rise.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
US Dollar Index 1-Hour Chart

Today is a bank holiday in the US and no major economic data will be made public. Due to this, investors may also see slightly lower volatility levels due to less orders. Tomorrow the US will release the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is known to trigger moderate volatility levels.

Currently, all indices are trading lower while risk indicators trade higher. As a result, the US Dollar is also benefiting from a risk-off appetite within the market. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency while the New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the worst.

Lastly, investors should note that the possibility of the US attacking Iran seems to be increasing. Democrats insist that Trump must seek congressional approval before engaging in potential military action against Iran. Experts advise the possibility of US involvement is currently 50:50. When the US previously bombed Libya in 2016 the US Dollar significantly declined.

US Dollar Index - Technical Analysis

The price of the US Dollar Index is trading higher this morning but it is forming a head and shoulder pattern. This provides a slight indication of a retracement, however, if the price rises above 98.67, the head and shoulder pattern will no longer be relevant. The price on a 2-hour timeframe is also trading above the 75-Period EMA indicating buyers are regaining control. The next resistance level on the index can be seen at 99.30.

Key Takeaway Levels:

* The US Dollar Index rose 0.55% after the Fed signalled fewer rate cuts in 2025, with seven members now expecting no cuts, up from four.
* Gold is down 1.19% and the SNP500 is down 0.35% following the Fed’s decision, reflecting market risk-off sentiment.
* The Fed projects slower growth (1.4%) and higher inflation (3%) due to tariffs and oil prices, but the job market remains a key factor for future rate decisions.
* Growing speculation about potential US military action against Iran adds uncertainty, supporting the USD as a safe-haven asset.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th June 2025.

The BoE’s Deputy Governor Surprisingly Votes For Rate Cut!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...GBP_Featured_1
The Great British Pound took advantage of the US bank holiday 0.26% in total on Thursday. The GBP was also one of the best-performing currencies of the Asian Session rising against all currencies. However, the outlook in the short term is quickly changing as the UK continues to release more negative economic data.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngGBPUSD 3-Minute Chart


Bank of England
A positive release from earlier in the week was the UK inflation rate which read 3.4%, higher than previous expectations (3.3%). However, regardless of the higher inflation reading, the Monetary Policy Committee took a dovish approach. The Bank of England did decide to keep interest rates unchanged, however, 3 members of the committee voted to cut interest rates.

In May 2025, the Bank of England cut its official bank rate from 4.5% to 4.25%. Yesterday, economists were expecting only 2 members to vote for an interest rate cut. Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra are the two most dovish members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Economists were expecting the two to vote for another interest rate cut. However, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden also joined the 2 in voting for an interest rate cut. This is considered largely dovish regardless of the decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

UK Economic Data
One of the reasons the Deputy Governor Mr Ramsden chose to cut interest rates instead of a pause was weakening economic data and employment. This morning the UK made public its Retail Sales figures which fell -2.7%, the weakest release in 18 months. The average retail sales figure for the UK in 2025 so far has been +0.8%. Economists were expecting a decline of 0.5%, however, the release of -2.7% is considerably lower than both expectations and the average so far.

Another concern is also the employment sector. The UK’s unemployment claims rose to 1.735 million which is higher than the previous month. The unemployment claims in the previous month were 1.702 million while the UK’s Salary Index has also fallen.

The Bank of England governor did not hold a press conference after the rate announcement. However, the governor is due to speak on the 24th and 26th where investors will for sure request guidance on the future path of interest rates. The UK will also release its Purchasing Managers’ Index on Monday at 08:45 GMT+0.

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis
The price of the Cable was one of the best-performing currencies during this morning’s Asian Session. However, the price fell 0.25% after the release of the UK’s Retail Sales. The price is now trading below the 200 Period Moving Average on the 3-minute timeframe. The price has slightly retraced back towards the 200 Period MA. However, if the price regains downward momentum. For example, below 1.34688, sell signals can again materialize.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. GBP rose during the US bank holiday and Asian session, but gains faded as weak UK economic data emerged.
2. BoE kept rates unchanged, yet three members, including Deputy Governor Ramsden — voted for a cut, signalling a dovish shift.
3. UK Retail Sales fell -2.7%, the worst in 18 months and well below expectations, adding to economic concerns.
4. Unemployment claims rose to 1.735 million, while GBP/USD fell below key technical levels following the retail sales release.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23th June 2025.

The USD Benefits From Middle East Escalations

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...le=US_featured
UK and European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes have been made publicly available but so far are not supporting either currency. So far, the best-performing currency is the US Dollar. The US will release its own PMI report at 13:45 GMT+0. The price of the US Dollar continues to witness the impact of the hawkish Federal Reserve and new escalations within the Middle East.

UK and EU PMI Data
The European PMI reports were the first to be made public. Both French PMI reports fell below expectations and below the previous month’s release. Particularly investors were concerned with the Manufacturing PMI which fell from 49.8 to 47.8. The German Manufacturing PMI read as expected while the Services PMI rose to a 2-month high.

A similar story for the UK, Manufacturing PMI data read higher than expectations while the Services PMI read as expected. However, the Great British Pound index still fell in value despite the report. In addition to this, the Pound also continues to remain under pressure from the Bank of England which held its interest rate at 4.25%, supported by six of the nine governing board members, in response to improved trading conditions following the agreement with the US. The Euro Index is currently trading at 0.56% lower and the Pound at 0.63%.

The Bank of England Governor’s speech tomorrow afternoon, along with Thursday’s address, will play a major role in driving the British Pound. Meanwhile, the Euro will see limited releases, with the German IFO Business Climate standing out as the key focus.

US Dollar And Middle East Escalation
The best-performing currency of the day is the US Dollar which is currently trading 0.69% higher so far today. The first reaction of the US Dollar after the US bombing of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan was a downward price movement, however, the market since then has significantly risen in value. The US Dollar is currently trading at its highest price on June 11th.

The US Dollar strengthened as geopolitical tensions escalated after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites triggering a lower risk appetite. However, traders will be closely monitoring the release of the US Manufacturing and Services PMI. Investors expect both PMI reports to be slightly weaker than the previous month, however, this cannot be certain until the release is made public.

EURUSD - Technical Analysis


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
EURUSD 2-Hour Chart

The EURUSD is currently trading below the 75-period EMA and is currently forming a descending triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart. The descending triangle pattern is known to provide a bearish bias as it trades below the 75-period EMA. However, the price is also trading at the support level. On smaller timeframes, the price continues to trade below the 200-period SMA but is retracing higher. However, the retracement is unable to maintain momentum and is forming lower highs.

Key Price Takeaways:

1. USD leads as geopolitical tensions and Fed hawkishness boost demand; up 0.69% today.
2. UK and EU PMIs failed to support GBP and EUR despite some stronger readings.
3. BoE and ECB speeches/data remain key drivers; markets await US PMI release.
4. EUR/USD shows bearish signals, trading below key EMAs in a descending triangle.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st July 2025.

Markets Rally into Q2 Close – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...=Bull_featured
Treasuries and Wall Street ended June – and the second quarter – with strong momentum, closing firmly in positive territory. A combination of quarter-end buying, investor FOMO, and supportive macro drivers helped fuel the rally. Hopes for Fed rate cuts, easing inflationary pressures, renewed tariff negotiations, reduced geopolitical tensions, and optimism around a potential tax bill all played into the bullish mood.

In the bond market, yields fell notably. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 3.3 basis points to 3.715%, while the 10-year declined 4.3 basis points to 4.234% — both hitting their lowest levels since May 1. For June, the 2-year yield fell 21 bps and was down 16 bps over the quarter. The 10-year yield matched the 21 bps monthly decline but rose 6 bps over Q2.

Equities pushed higher into fresh record territory. The NASDAQ closed up 0.47% at 20,369, securing its third straight all-time high. The S&P 500 gained 0.52% to finish above 6,200 for the first time, while the Dow Jones rose 0.63% to 44,094 — reclaiming the 44,000 level last seen in February. June delivered over 4% gains for both the Dow and S&P, with the NASDAQ soaring 6.6%. For the quarter, the NASDAQ surged 17.75%, marking its strongest performance since Q2 2020.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...7.original.png


Volatility eased further, with the VIX inching up 0.4% to 16.73 but still well below its April 8 spike of 52.33. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) weakened to 96.802, its lowest since early 2022, slipping from an earlier high of 97.318. Gold rose 1% to $3,308.50 per ounce, while crude oil eased 0.69% to $65.07 a barrel.

Markets reacted positively to news that Canada will withdraw its proposed tax on US tech firms, prompting a resumption of trade talks. President Trump had previously halted the negotiations, calling the tax ‘a direct and blatant attack.’ Investors now speculate that easing tensions could prevent further tariff hikes.

Still, uncertainty lingers. Many of Trump’s tariffs are only temporarily suspended and are scheduled to resume on July 9. Analysts at Deutsche Bank warn that the market rebound could give the administration confidence to revive 2018–2019-style tariff escalations.

Asian Markets Mixed as Global Rally Echoes
Asian markets were mostly in the green on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s back-to-back monthly gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 retreated 1.4% to 39,910.83 despite a better-than-expected Tankan survey showing improved sentiment among large manufacturers.

In China, the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.4% to 3,458.56 as manufacturing and services PMIs both reached three-month highs (49.7 and 50.5 respectively). South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 0.8% to 3,095.67, lifted by rebounding exports, particularly in semiconductors, ships, health products, and electric vehicles — although analysts remain cautious on US auto exports due to tariff headwinds.

Australia’s ASX 200 ticked up 0.1% to 8,545.10, and the Philippine PSEi rose 0.4%. Hong Kong’s markets were closed for the holiday.

In corporate news, tech and M&A headlines fueled gains:

Oracle jumped 4% after CEO Safra Catz revealed multiple multi-billion-dollar cloud deals in the pipeline. GMS soared 11.7% after agreeing to a $5.5 billion cash buyout from a Home Depot subsidiary at $110/share. Rival bidder QXO, which previously offered $95.20/share, saw its stock rise 3.9%, while Home Depot slipped 0.6%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 11.1%, and Juniper Networks gained 8.4% after both companies reached a DOJ agreement that could clear the path for HPE’s $14 billion acquisition of Juniper.

Bank stocks also advanced after the Fed affirmed that major institutions could weather a potential downturn. JPMorgan rose 1%, and Citigroup added 0.9%.

In the bond space, Treasury yields fell ahead of Thursday’s critical nonfarm payrolls report, released a day early due to the July 4th holiday.

In early Tuesday trading, US crude dipped 22 cents to $64.89 a barrel, and Brent lost 21 cents to $66.53. The US dollar edged lower to 143.69 yen, and the euro strengthened slightly to $1.1778.

Gold Prices Surge on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Dollar Weakness
Gold rallied for a second day as investors positioned for possible Fed rate cuts and trade volatility. August futures climbed 1.09% to $3,343.60 on COMEX. Spot gold was last seen at $3,322.64 in Singapore, up 0.6%.

Traders have priced in increased odds of two rate cuts in 2025. If upcoming jobs data disappoints, Treasury yields could slide further — a scenario typically favourable for gold. Bullion is now up over 25% year-to-date, trading less than $200 below its record high from April.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...3.original.png


Trade concerns also remain in focus. The July 9 deadline for resuming suspended US tariffs is drawing closer, adding a layer of uncertainty to the outlook.

The dollar’s recent weakness — down nearly 11% in H1 2025, its worst first-half showing since 1973 — has also supported gold’s advance.

Analysts continue to see an upside for gold. ‘Despite some recent softness, gold has the clearest upside potential if the dollar continues to weaken,’ wrote Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Elsewhere in precious metals:

 

1. Platinum dipped after a stellar 29% rally in June, driven by supply tightness and speculative demand.
2. Silver and palladium both edged higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.