Attachments: Simple Daily System

Simple Daily System

#201
Aug 7, 2007 12:37pm Aug 7, 2007 12:37pm

Kev-K
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 175 Posts

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board meeting now (Tuesday afternoon EDT in U.S.) to set U.S. interest rates . . . an example of a BIG news day???

Interesting to see the effect on USD pairs (if any. Depends on what action they take.) Consensus seems to think that they will not change rates, but who knows.

K

As I write this note it is: 10:28 AM PST my local time (-8GMT)

#202
Aug 7, 2007 12:52pm Aug 7, 2007 12:52pm

rugged1529
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 6 Posts

yea i know, I'm waiting too it's now 1:51pm (GMT -4)

pip my system

#203
Aug 7, 2007 12:53pm Aug 7, 2007 12:53pm

birdt
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 934 Posts

Absolutely TheThing, the dataset that I used began on the 7th. If I had included the 6th (as I should have) then it would have been 100% successful! It might not have produced that many pips over 6 months compared to other systems but with that sort of probability of success (no doubt this was an exceptional period), I would feel confident enough to risk a substantial amount of capital allowing me to make big profits. Now I've looked over the data I must admit this is getting pretty exciting. Shall we order the Bahamian brochures already?

#204
Aug 7, 2007 1:13pm Aug 7, 2007 1:13pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

Quoting birdt

Disliked

Absolutely TheThing, the dataset that I used began on the 7th. If I had included the 6th (as I should have) then it would have been 100% successful! It might not have produced that many pips over 6 months compared to other systems but with that sort of probability of success (no doubt this was an exceptional period), I would feel confident enough to risk a substantial amount of capital allowing me to make big profits. Now I've looked over the data I must admit this is getting pretty exciting. Shall we order the Bahamian brochures already?

Ignored

Hehe Bahama is good but more backtesting is needed and then live trading ahead and only then Bahama

A good thing to do is to test other pairs using the same broker (NF) and same time period (FEB-AUG) and see the overall performance and use only this filter for now (20 EMA+50EMA). I am going to test GBP/USD today for this period and later will post the monthly charts with my results so you guys can compare and check out. So if anyone else is going to perform the test - please pick up another pair - GBP/USD is mine

:

P.S. Yep, EUR/JPY showed no losing trade over 7 months..still can't believe..

#205
Edited 6:12pm Aug 7, 2007 2:43pm | Edited 6:12pm

zunk
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 77 Posts

I will try to help you guys out. I haven't read the full thread yet. I maybe will.

Right, to the point..

Northfinance (I suppose that's the brooker TheThing means).

USDCHF

FEB --> AUG

12 possible trades. 6 not with trend (not accounted for). 6 with trend.

(Possible Reward ** Risk)

1. No profit
2. +25 ** -85
3. No profit (OR trade it for a couple of bars with .. +65 ** -85)
4. +130 ** -20
5. +65 ** no risk
6. no profit.

Lets assume a SL of 90 pips and a PERFECT TP.
-90
+25
+65
+130
+65
-90

total: +105

THEN SL of 90 (don't know what sl you guys use) and 1 lot TP 30 then move to B/E and second lot TP 100.
-90
-90
+30
+130
+30
-90

total: -80

USDCHF in the period FEB-AUG is according to MY testing not a good pair.

Hope I was to any help.

EDIT: NEVER MIND THE ABOVE PLEASE! KINDA SCREWED UP...

#206
Aug 7, 2007 5:12pm Aug 7, 2007 5:12pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

Quoting zunk

Disliked

I will try to help you guys out. I haven't read the full thread yet. I maybe will.

Right, to the point..

Northfinance (I suppose that's the brooker TheThing means).

USDCHF

FEB --> AUG

12 possible trades. 6 not with trend (not accounted for). 6 with trend.

(Possible Reward ** Risk)

1. No profit
2. +25 ** -85
3. No profit (OR trade it for a couple of bars with .. +65 ** -85)
4. +130 ** -20
5. +65 ** no risk
6. no profit.

Lets assume a SL of 90 pips and a PERFECT TP.
-90
+25
+65
+130
+65
-90

total: +105

THEN SL of 90 (don't know what sl you guys use) and 1 lot TP 30 then move to B/E and second lot TP 100.
-90
-90
+30
+130
+30
-90

total: -80

USDCHF in the period FEB-AUG is according to MY testing not a good pair.

Hope I was to any help.

Ignored

Thank you zunk for your efforts! Really appreciate your help with testing! However I got a bit different results.
Total Trades : 6
Winners: 6
Loss: 0
Total profit: +280 pips.

Have a look at attached charts and if somebody got a question regarding trades - please ask. I haven't put in much details the charts like previous ones. Rules were the same as in post #1 + trend following.

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#207
Aug 7, 2007 5:16pm Aug 7, 2007 5:16pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

March

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#208
Aug 7, 2007 5:17pm Aug 7, 2007 5:17pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

April

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#209
Aug 7, 2007 5:24pm Aug 7, 2007 5:24pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

May

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#210
Aug 7, 2007 5:25pm Aug 7, 2007 5:25pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

June

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#211
Aug 7, 2007 5:27pm Aug 7, 2007 5:27pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

July

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#212
Aug 7, 2007 5:50pm Aug 7, 2007 5:50pm

birdt
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 934 Posts

Nice work. USD/CHF looks OK to me.

To decide upon which way a pair is trending, I use a 5 period simple moving average applied to close on a weekly chart (borrowed from Vegas 4h tunnel method), I find this cuts out the whipsaw and is still responsive enough to identify trends without too much lag. Quite simply, if the gradient of the SMA is positive, I will consider any LONG trades, and only SHORT trades if it is negative.

I will look into backtesting the GBP/JPY tonight. I expect similar results to the EUR/JPY, but it's worth looking into. GBP/CHF will be next on my 'to do' list.

The only pair that qualifies on my charts tonight is EUR/GBP. This pair is flat and quite frankly pretty boring. There also is some historic resistance in the area and the candlesticks have got long wicks suggesting to me that they may struggle to breach that level so I'll be leaving this one alone. As a note, this pair is one of the least volatile and I really don't think the 30/100/90 points are appropriate.

#213
Aug 7, 2007 5:59pm Aug 7, 2007 5:59pm

zunk
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 77 Posts

Quoting TheThing

Disliked

Thank you zunk for your efforts! Really appreciate your help with testing! However I got a bit different results.
Total Trades : 6
Winners: 6
Loss: 0
Total profit: +280 pips.

Have a look at attached charts and if somebody got a question regarding trades - please ask. I haven't put in much details the charts like previous ones. Rules were the same as in post #1 + trend following.

Ignored

Gosh! Thats amazingly stupid of me. I guess I will have to read the thread more thoroughly and try it again. Sorry man!

By the way, this is correct right?
1. Determine trend with 50EMA and 20EMA. Up slope, long. Down slope, short.
2. when 3 consecutive bars are shown go long/short on the open of the next one IF trend is right.
SL: Don't know.
TP: 1 lot 30, then B/E. 1 lot 100.

EDIT: Again. I apologies. Now when looking back on the chart, and following along with yours I'm kinda concerned about my mental state. HAHA! Guess I've been staring and those things longer than I can take for one day. Again I'm sorry.

I will study this thread tomorrow and maybe do another backtest with one of the pairs you've backtested to see if I can get the hang of it

Thanks

#214
Aug 7, 2007 6:05pm Aug 7, 2007 6:05pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

Quoting birdt

Disliked

Nice work. USD/CHF looks OK to me.

To decide upon which way a pair is trending, I use a 5 period simple moving average applied to close on a weekly chart (borrowed from Vegas 4h tunnel method), I find this cuts out the whipsaw and is still responsive enough to identify trends without too much lag. Quite simply, if the gradient of the SMA is positive, I will consider any LONG trades, and only SHORT trades if it is negative.

I will look into backtesting the GBP/JPY tonight. I expect similar results to the EUR/JPY, but it's worth looking into. GBP/CHF will be next on my 'to do' list.

The only pair that qualifies on my charts tonight is EUR/GBP. This pair is flat and quite frankly pretty boring. There also is some historic resistance in the area and the candlesticks have got long wicks suggesting to me that they may struggle to breach that level so I'll be leaving this one alone. As a note, this pair is one of the least volatile and I really don't think the 30/100/90 points are appropriate.

Ignored

Will check 5SMA tonight, thanks!

Well, at EUR/GBP chart 20 EMA is going to cross 50 EMA, but it's not above 50 EMA for now. It may be a successful trade but if to strictly follow the rules (I'm talking about 20+50EMA not 5SMA) this trade should be passed.

If you have some time please post your results with the charts so we can see and compare. Thanks!

#215
Aug 7, 2007 6:12pm Aug 7, 2007 6:12pm

TheThing
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Trader | 242 Posts

Quoting zunk

Disliked

Gosh! Thats amazingly stupid of me. I guess I will have to read the thread more thoroughly and try it again. Sorry man!

By the way, this is correct right?
1. Determine trend with 50EMA and 20EMA. Up slope, long. Down slope, short.
2. when 3 consecutive bars are shown go long/short on the open of the next one IF trend is right.
SL: Don't know.
TP: 1 lot 30, then B/E. 1 lot 100.

Ignored

No worries man, we all make mistakes sometimes

Yes, you're right and SL is 90 pips and we open the trade with 2 lots with TP1 of 30 pips and TP2 of 100 pips (Too high for some pairs like USD/CHF but will be back to this later). Once TP1 is hit move SL of 2nd lot to BE.
Yes, and always follow the trend

#216
Aug 7, 2007 9:31pm Aug 7, 2007 9:31pm

birdt
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 934 Posts

Again, I have not used any TP or SL's on any of the hypothetical trades, just reporting the activity of the bar following the three bar setup. This time I did not place any trades against the trend. GBP/JPY was in a strong up-trend during much of the period, up until round about mid-July, where it gave up 1000 pips within a few days. During this down period there were set-ups that would have been considered but whether these would have been taken is debatable.

21/2 LONG open 234.62 close 236.29 - 167 pip gain
22/3 LONG open 231.60 close 231.92 - 62 pip gain
13/4 LONG open 235.79 close 236.81 - 102 pip gain
30/4 LONG open 238.18 close 238.94 - 76 pip gain
18/5 LONG open 239.53 close 239.14 - 39 pip loss*
24/5 LONG open 241.65 close 240.92 - 73 pip loss
20/6 LONG open 245.32 close 246.23 - 91 pip gain**

*2nd bar (16/5) of the 3 bar formation was a doji closing just 2 pips higher than open. Technically this fulfills the rule but perhaps some discretion may have led us to not place this trade. **However, on the 18/6 we saw a similar situation which would have led to a profit. It is my suggestion that only those who are willing to tolerate a little more risk take these trades, those who are not should wait for the 'A' trades.

So, by my reckoning, if we had employed this strategy over the 6 month period only placing LONG trades when the 3 bar setup was observed, this strategy would have yielded 386 pips with 8 trades, 6 of which being profitable. If our indicators signalled that the trend had reversed early enough and we allowed the placement of a SHORT trade, we could potentially have doubled our haul. Using the 50EMA, the gradient became negative around the 25th or 26th. If we'd got in on the 27th, we'd have picked up 314 pips on that SHORT trade alone.

#217
Aug 8, 2007 12:32am Aug 8, 2007 12:32am

Kev-K
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 175 Posts

Opened North Finance demo tonight . . . love the MT4! Thing, Birdt, Pinnto, our charts are in sync.!

Time consumed with neices, nephews, and dogs tonight! However, I wanted to give you a taste of the AUD/USD pair . . . Feb. 1 to Aug 1.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1186550918

Attached Image (click to enlarge)