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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - A Real Trading Record

  • #581
  • Jun 10, 2025 3:15am Jun 10, 2025 3:15am
Hi all,
A quieter market this morning but an interesting one to analyse:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250610_08.34.png Size: 22 KB

Market opens 8am around the 170 level and quickly settles into a range in the 20-60 area. The volatility is much less than previous days and we see two exact hi/lo range touches at 61 and 19 before immediate rebounds in each case back into the range; marked in orange on the chart. Such behaviour in relatively quiet conditions suggests market makers are in control and prices are not being driven by actual customer order flow. Market makers make money mostly out of the dealing spread and in fluctuating markets where they can run prices to obvious prior extremes and reversing them back, catching the unwary on spikes for a nice little earner, paid for by the suckered trader.

All this means I start to think in such market conditions about failed range break trading more than looking to run a less likely-to-evolve trend. Thus, when I see a break up to 70 that immediately reverses, I am happy to try a short at 59, just inside the old 61 range high. Stop at 73 is above the breakout high, 1R target at 45 is well above prior lows, so all OK. This, however, does not work on this occasion as I don't get the immediate fall back through the range that is to be expected if my analysis is correct. Instead, the market wobbles for four successive bars and unable to break the 50 level, enough to make me nervous and take the stop to breakeven where I am duly scratched out at 59. If the market does not do what it "should" do (it can of course do anything it wants!) according to your analysis, don't hang about and hope, protect yourself and be ready to get out quickly. My scratch proved wise as as the market moved up to just touch my -1R stop loss, so money saved!

However, we see there a third exact price level match and immediate fall back, also marked in orange on the chart, further suggesting it is a continuing market maker controlled technical market. I am thus tempted to try another similar short, this time at 61 as the market falls back. This one does work quickly, and if my views are right we should look for a run towards the prior lows so, unusually for me, I decide to hang on at the 1R target at 47. Price does indeed continue to fall and I eventually exit for a 29pt +2R profit at 32, too nervous to want to test the 30 level from where we have seen a prior bounce, even though range lows are down at 20.

I trust you can all see how my thought processes went this morning, and how I adapted my behaviour according to observed market action. You must have your views to be able to trade, but be humble and always remember the market is always right!
  • #582
  • Edited 3:26am Jun 16, 2025 3:16am | Edited 3:26am
Hi all,
Started the week with a losing trade but managed to recover, providing a couple of useful lessons in both poor trade placement & management; happily followed by a better effort subsequently:

Market opens 8am around the 555 level, runs up past 600 before falling back towards 70. I see this as a opening fake rush up to a big figure before a reverse, and so am tempted into an early short at 84 after the first bounce from 70 to 92 rolls over. This is not actually great trade placement as the stop at 98 is below prior highs and the 1R target at 70 is right on the prior low: ideally you want it a bit better in both directions but I enter anyway. It does get as low as 74 but I don't move the stop to breakeven, thinking there is a bit of choppiness today so want to give the trade some room. All of this proves unwise as the market then jumps up to just touch 98 and I am stopped out for a -1R loss. Had I either put the stop at a better point above 00 or moved the stop to breakeven at +10pts, I would have been OK; basically, just poor trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250616_08.32.png Size: 23 KB

Anyway, I have to take the loss and move on. I am still liking the idea of it being an early morning fake rush up and reverse, especially as the market fails to break 00 again on three seperate pushes up. Thus, I am tempted to try another short after the third failure, this time at 90, a better stop at 04 and a more accessible target at 76. This is a better setup and happily works well. We get the market falling towards prior lows around 70 then collapsing with a big down spike into which I exit at 59 for some bous points, netting 21pts or +1.5R. Braver traders could have held on for more, the eventual low is below 30.

I trust you can see how a suboptimal setup and/or poor trade management can cause you unnecessary trouble, whilst a better positioned trade is more likely to work for you. The winning trade also demonstrates the value of sometimes having a second go at an idea, though I must caution there is a fine line between a justifiable second attempt and stubborness to accept your analysis is not correct - and that can turn out very expensive with multiple losses if you do irrationally dig your heels in, as human nature is prone to do!

PS As a painful example of this last point, in my early days I was trading a box breakout method but the market was trapped in a long sideways range. I took 10(!) successive losses trying to alternately buy on a breakout at the top of the range and short on a breakdown at the bottom. Stubborness at its best! Unsurprisingly, I soon afterwards abandoned that method for something else...
  • #583
  • Jun 17, 2025 3:53am Jun 17, 2025 3:53am
Hi all,
A losing day today, and a good example of a bad psyche day:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250617_09.27.png Size: 23 KB

Woke up late this morning, feeling a bit out of sorts and coming into trading late about 8.20am. I see the market took a steep fall from the open, finishing with a blowout collapse down to 23320 before staging a recovery of sorts. The strong downtrend makes me want to look for shorts but the end blowout is something of a warning flag, that could easily be the end of an opening collapse which is then followed by a slower, sustained recovery. However, I choose to ignore the potential warning and decide to look for a short.

I get my chance with a double failure of the market to pierce big figure 400 and try a short at 95. This gets to +10pts at 85 before reversing back up and I am duly scratched out at 95, having moved my stop protectively to breakeven. So no harm done but the fact the market did not fly back down much closer to the prior 20 lows is another warning I ignore. Instead, I cling on to the idea that 400 is some kind of barrier and shortly after try another short at 98 on a third unsustained pop up above 400. This time, however, I am 100% wrong, my 98 entry was not the signal of a 00 failure break but just a tiny reaction before a renewed march up. I am duly stopped out at 12 for a 14pt -1R loss (PS apologies, the text box on the chart is marked 'closed at 14', should be actually 'stopped at 12'; told you I am a bit dopey today!).

At this point I stop and take a breather and a review:
1) I feel out of touch this morning
2) I have ignored two warning signals that my directional view may be wrong
3) I have taken two trades very close together, a sign of impatience
4) I am net 1R down on the two trades and not feeling I really understand what is going on
I thus decide to call it a halt for the day. In such circumstances only bad things are going to happen and I am best away from the market.

So, a poor day trading. These things happen and the important thing is not to let it get out of hand. The market will be there tomorrow when I hopefully will feel better, but today is not the day to press things. Such a psychological stop is an important thing to develop as a trader, it helps to prevent the really bad blowout day where you can lose a lot. In fact, this was the last discipline I managed to develop before I felt I became an OK trader. It is a hard thing both to recognise and be able to do something effective about. I hope you will get there rather sooner than I did!
  • #584
  • Edited 8:15am Jun 17, 2025 7:24am | Edited 8:15am
Quoting Oldtraderman
Hi all, A losing day today, and a good example of a bad psyche day: {image} Woke up late this morning, feeling a bit out of sorts and coming into trading late about 8.20am. I see the market took a steep fall from the open, finishing with a blowout collapse down to 23320 before staging a recovery of sorts. The strong downtrend makes me want to look for shorts but the end blowout is something of a warning flag, that could easily be the end of an opening collapse which is then followed by a slower, sustained recovery. However, I choose to ignore the...
I know you know about all what I post below, but had to give you my piece of mind..

I think you are, for whatever reason, getting too hard on yourself...could be something outside the trading.
So, some of your trades that usually do not fail are failing, so what? It is, as you know, part of our business, we all been there and will be there again and again. Once trader acknowledges that statistics are in the trader favor(only 5% of traders can really acknowledge that and be correct about it), as it takes years of hard work to get here, the rest is mechanical, rinse and repeat.

Once you put a trade on, random outcome is guaranteed, but not if you have your statistics figured out. Entry is mostly irrelevant, mastering statistics on MM and controlling Mindfuck(Fear and Greed) is where it is at. Cheers
  • #585
  • Jun 17, 2025 2:28pm Jun 17, 2025 2:28pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} I know you know about all what I post below, but had to give you my piece of mind.. I think you are, for whatever reason, getting too hard on yourself...could be something outside the trading. So, some of your trades that usually do not fail are failing, so what? It is, as you know, part of our business, we all been there and will be there again and again. Once trader acknowledges that statistics are in the trader favor(only 5% of traders can really acknowledge that and be correct about it), as it takes years of hard work to get here, the...

Hi driven18,
Many thanks for your comments, occasionally I am a bit out of sorts and today was one of them. I am not being hard on myself in the post, simply explaining how my trading went today so readers can get an idea that poorer days exist as much as the good ones, it's not all sunshine and roses. Can't be great every day and I accept frequent losers as an inherent part of trading. As I read somewhere, having losers and winners in trading is rather like breathing - you can't breathe in unless you also breathe out now and again!
  • #586
  • Jun 20, 2025 10:02am Jun 20, 2025 10:02am
Too many emotions. The reality is, you've lost very little this week in relation to how much you've made in recent months, Oldtraderman.

My advice is to keep up the good work, continue implementing your very disciplined risk management, and your confidence will come back.

There are very significant psychological factors as work that trump all other factors regarding your success in the markets.

You (and I) are both successful, consistent, and profitable.

Also, don't forget, if you truly wanted it, hedge funds would rain a fortune down on someone as consistent as you. In fact, they give massive amounts of money to things that are nowhere near consistent all the time.

Just a few thoughts.
  • #587
  • Jun 21, 2025 5:40pm Jun 21, 2025 5:40pm
Quoting greatescape
Too many emotions. The reality is, you've lost very little this week in relation to how much you've made in recent months, Oldtraderman. My advice is to keep up the good work, continue implementing your very disciplined risk management, and your confidence will come back. There are very significant psychological factors as work that trump all other factors regarding your success in the markets. You (and I) are both successful, consistent, and profitable. Also, don't forget, if you truly wanted it, hedge funds would rain a fortune down on someone...
Hi greatescape,
Many thanks for your comments, much appreciated. Yours and driven18's similar post before you make me think I've perhaps given the wrong idea in my post #583 describing a losing day. That is all it is, a losing day. I have lots and lots of them, it is not a matter of grave emotional concern or any crisis of confidence. Thank you also for your faith in my ability to earn a fortune in hedge funds, that I doubt however. The hedge fund organisations & people that I know have rather more demanding standards and client requirements than I care to try to meet; I am essentially retired now (I used to be an institutional investment manager) and just want to have fun trading my own funds without reference or accountability to anyone else.

Trading is winning sometimes, losing sometimes, hopefully coming out net ahead when all is added up. All I wanted to do is show a losing day to readers as I am aware that most of my posts are for winning or at least scratch days and that could give a false idea of the daily life of my trading. The reality is I lose often, it's an inherent part of the game. I actually don't think of my trades as winners, scratches and losers; they are all just trades, some that work out and some that don't.

All I care about is that I put on "good" trades, i.e. they are decent setups that are faithful to my method. Whether they individually make me or lose me money is of little interest to me. My focus is on all trades being good setups for my method, and of those that lose, all I want to ensure is that the loss is both controlled and small. Trading is far more an exercise in disciplined and consistent risk control than it is anything else.
  • #588
  • Jun 23, 2025 4:52am Jun 23, 2025 4:52am
Hi all,
This morning's trading was an excellent example of the benefit of looking to trade with the trend:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250623_10.30.png Size: 27 KB

Markets opens 8am around 23200 (below bottom of chart) and races up to a 390 high before rolling over and settling into a long downtrend.
I did nothing before 8.30 this morning as important German & French flash manufacturing/services PMI figures were coming out at 8.15 & 8.30 and I do not like to trade immediately ahead of such potentially volatility-inducing announcements. I also like to wait awhile afterwards to let the market digest the data and settle down. Thus I did nothing until I see a big head & shoulders type chart pattern form from around 9.00-9.20, the head being the 390 high. I am not a huge follower of subjectively interpreted chart patterns but this one is obvious and is suggestive of a rollover and fallback from the morning rush up. I wait for several successive failures of the 370 level on the right shoulder before being tempted into a short at 65. The stop at 79 is well below the 90 head high but above the right shoulder, so OK, and the 51 1R target is well above the pattern lows. This works well enough and I duly take my 1R profit at 51.

You can see on the chart thereafter that my entry was the first of several very clear and quite easy downtrend rollover entries, marked off in green for you. Any of them would make you money. Trying to go long would have been both frustrating and costly; a very clear example of the value of looking to trade with the flow. Of course, you don't have to use my failed bounce rollover entry setup, anything that gets you short into the downtrend at a sensible point will do. The important thing is to look to trade with the trend, I have found this to be to single biggest and most reliable edge you can have in the rather marginal game of trading.
  • #589
  • Jun 24, 2025 4:02am Jun 24, 2025 4:02am
Hi all,
A tricky market for my method today and, perhaps unsurprisingly, a scratch result:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250624_09.38.png Size: 26 KB
Market opens 8am around 23720 and proceeds to move downwards in a both choppy and volatile manner, bottoming out in a blowout fall to the 600 level before bouncing sharply. This bounce pierces 700 but does not hold, falling back to settle into a small consolidation in the 640-60 area. The quick retreat from 700 gets me hopeful of a retest of the 600 low, so on the third failed attempt of the consolidation to breach 660, I am happy to try a short at 55, stop at 69 above the consolidation, 1R target of 41 above the consolidation lows. So all OK except it is an immediate failure, the market breaking up out of the consolidation to quickly stop me for -1R at 69. Disappointing but the value of the stop is proven as the run up continues to 740 before a meaningful pause, this representing a -6R loss if held on. You aren't going to be profitable taking too many of those so really do respect your stop and take the loss there. As the saying goes, the first loss is the smallest!

The run up to 740, way past revious resistance at 700 is a signal that maybe the flow is upwards now. Thus I change tack to the long side and, seeing a couple of failures to drop below 720 I am happy to try a long at 22, stop 08 below the pause low and 1R target of 36 below the prior high. This works and I get +16pts, 1.1R at 38, not wanting to test the prior 40 high. Braver traders could have held on for more as the run closed in on the 60 level.

As far as I am concerned, both setups looked fine to me, just today only one worked out. That is just the way it is, no method is even remotely close to perfect. Given the unhelpful choppy and volatile conditions for my method today, I am quite happy to call a halt with a couple of points in the bank. No reason to push things, I'll keep my powder dry and look to try again another day when conditions are more friendly for me.
  • #590
  • Jun 28, 2025 4:10am Jun 28, 2025 4:10am
Dear Oldtraderman. I just chime in once again to express my gratitude for your posts. I use order flow a lot so I'm not exactly in the same wagon as your approach (although for some basic chart analysis I folllow similar steps to you). But apart from the method, you provide very important lessons about trading in general such as, discipline, risk management, stability in approach, keeping fear and greed in check (few that come in mind).

So thanks again and wishing you the best.

Alex
  • #591
  • Jul 1, 2025 3:02am Jul 1, 2025 3:02am
Quoting siju
Dear Oldtraderman. I just chime in once again to express my gratitude for your posts. I use order flow a lot so I'm not exactly in the same wagon as your approach (although for some basic chart analysis I folllow similar steps to you). But apart from the method, you provide very important lessons about trading in general such as, discipline, risk management, stability in approach, keeping fear and greed in check (few that come in mind). So thanks again and wishing you the best. Alex
Hi Alex,
Apologies for delay in replying, have been away for a few days. Thank you so much for your kind words, really nice that you have taken the trouble to post. It is gratifying to see that what I try to put down here has some use for people. You do make the important point that my actual method is not really the key thing - everyone should design their own method that suits them, personally - it is the more generic comments about the nature and process of trading that I like to think have wider direct applicability, whatever your personal method. Thank you!
  • #592
  • Jul 1, 2025 3:23am Jul 1, 2025 3:23am
Hi all,
July rolls around and H2 trading starts happily with a relatively straightforward win; making a good contrast to my last trading post #589 above:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250701_08.50.png Size: 18 KB

Market opens 8am around 23940 (above top of chart), makes an opening push to 980 before reversing into a steady downtrend. This is more comfortable trading conditions for my method than the unsettled, volatile and choppy conditions of post #589, and the patience to wait for more suitable market conditions is quickly rewarded. The market makes a low just above 23860 and then proceeds to bounce uneasily up to 885. I am looking for a short into the established downtrend and we see three attempts to breach the 85 level fail, the last failure tempting me in to try a short at 82. The stop at 96 is above the bounce highs and 1R target of 68 is above the prior low, all giving me what I want: a trade with the flow after a presumed failed bounce, and a stop harder for the market to hit than the 1R target. It doesn't have to work, but the odds I think are in my favour. Happily, it is all good today, a 16pt 1.1R profit is quickly taken at 66, not wanting to take on the 60-ish low. For once, caution beats greed as the market does bounce sharply off 60 and the profit is quickly erased if the trade is run on.

I trust you can see the value of waiting for conditions to suit your method, and for waiting for an ideal setup. There is no need at all to force on sub-optimal trades, the market is there all day, every day, quoting prices for you to look at. Wait for the ones you like!
  • #593
  • Jul 1, 2025 3:32am Jul 1, 2025 3:32am
Hi all,
As we move into July, time for a quick review of Q2 and overall H1 2025 trading.

For Q2, the summary statistics are: 96 trades, c.48% were wins, 39% losers and 13% scratches for a net 9 winners. Average win size was +1.15R against an average loser of -1.0R. With my standard position sizing of 1R equating to a 2% starting account risk it means the account is up c.20% for the quarter. Q1 return was 22% so up nicely over 40% at half time, and the maximum drawdown percentage remains good, never having exceeded single digits in H1.

Compared to Q1 results (see post #533), I have traded a little less frequently but the outstanding feature is the scratch percentage which has more than halved. This was quite deliberate as I have been trying last quarter to let trades run to their natural conclusion a bit more rather than being quite so scratch happy, as is my usual inclination. This attitude has also seen the average win edge up to 1.15R from 1.0R in Q1 as I have also tried to let at least some winners run on a bit more than my normal habit. I am minded to try to get the average win size up and will carry on with this approach through H2. We will see if it is indeed possible to teach an old dog new tricks!

The figures demonstrate trading is quite a marginal game (at least for me!) but can still be a nicely profitable one if risk is kept under strict control. Over H1 I have only had 20 net winners in 201 trades - a 10% net success rate - but that is enough for an account growth of over 40% on a 2% per trade risk, and with very low account drawdown. Of course, having a more aggressive money management approach than mine can gear the achieved return on these results up to anything you want, but at the cost of higher drawdowns. You have to pick your own level of greed versus risk acceptance depending on your psyche and emotional comfort level. Not much point in making huge profits if the equity curve volatility incurred in doing so is going to give you a coronary.

For H2 I will continue with my unashamedly one trick pony core trading method of trading with the flow on a failed bounce against the trend, and sticking to one market, the DAX 40. I developed this method to exploit what I believe is a natural and enduring market behaviour with a sustainable edge, and I see no evidence that the markets are changing in this regard. I also remain happy trading it and have yet to register any obvious heart palpitations. So, let the game go on!
  • #594
  • Jul 3, 2025 3:00pm Jul 3, 2025 3:00pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
Hi all, As we move into July, time for a quick review of Q2 and overall H1 2025 trading. For Q2, the summary statistics are: 96 trades, c.48% were wins, 39% losers and 13% scratches for a net 9 winners. Average win size was +1.15R against an average loser of -1.0R. With my standard position sizing of 1R equating to a 2% starting account risk it means the account is up c.20% for the quarter. Q1 return was 22% so up nicely over 40% at half time, and the maximum drawdown percentage remains good, never having exceeded single digits in H1. Compared to...
Congrats! Very good! Rinse and Repeat. I love our business!
  • #595
  • Jul 3, 2025 11:59pm Jul 3, 2025 11:59pm
Very well done, OldTraderMan.

Hence, yes, Hedge funds would invest heavily in you.

Yes, I know you used to be an investment manager. I've followed you for quite a while. Higher level funds would most certainly devote a very substantial amount to someone with such an extensive, consistent track record such as yours.

Additionally, I most certainly get that you were merely posting a 'losing' day and your reaction to it a few posts back. However, having long followed your posts, it is undeniable that you've had many periods of struggle, just as I have, and so my encouraging post was more geared toward your overall forum as opposed to a single post.

The main point being that you repeatedly bounce back, push through, and continue to cycle into profitability over and and over again while maintaining excellent risk management.

That was all. Thank you for posting your results. Here's to your continued success and unbelievable consistency going forward.

If I may ask.....although I've picked up several things regarding your prior investment experience over the last 2 years, I've yet to see you embellish on what you actually did during your professional career. Would you be kind enough to elaborate more and discuss what you learned during that time? Were you actually allowed to employ such hands-on strategies during that time, or were there restrictions that made such precision control much more challenging back then?
  • #596
  • Jul 4, 2025 2:38pm Jul 4, 2025 2:38pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} I love our business!
Hi driven18,
So do I!
  • #597
  • Jul 4, 2025 3:29pm Jul 4, 2025 3:29pm
Quoting greatescape
VIf I may ask.....although I've picked up several things regarding your prior investment experience over the last 2 years, I've yet to see you embellish on what you actually did during your professional career. Would you be kind enough to elaborate more and discuss what you learned during that time? Were you actually allowed to employ such hands-on strategies during that time, or were there restrictions that made such precision control much more challenging back then?
Hi greatescape,

Thank you for your comments, much appreciated, and your question is a good one! In my professional career I was not a trader, I was an institutional investment manager primarily looking after pension fund monies, life insurance funds and HNW (high net worth) private clients. These amounted to many billions of £s in aggregate value but had very little to do with trading as I do here, hence my lack of reference to it.

Instiutional investment like that is very much about controlling risk and meeting client-designated benchmark performance & risk tolerance targets. It is all rather like steering a supertanker - you can't just throw money around, jumping in and out, the market can't handle that weight of money in one go. You have to structure a long term portfolio and adjust it gradually over time as conditions allow; you can only buy in size when people are selling, and vice-versa. It is a very long way from my short term day trading here!

All I really learned from it that is applicable to my trading now is an understanding of how markets work & move; and the vital importance of risk control. In most other respects I actually had to unlearn most of my professional disciplines, they are rather too staid and slow for short term trading. They were also based on fundamental analysis, my trading in contrast is completely technically oriented. I think perhaps it is because trading is so different to what I did before is why I like it - it often seems in life that, rightly or wrongly, what you desire is what you don't have. That said, I do also run a long term personal investment portfolio that I manage on such traditional principles so I do have the best of both worlds, I guess!

Hope that explains a bit.
  • #598
  • Jul 7, 2025 3:48am Jul 7, 2025 3:48am
Hi all,
An exercise in utter frustration in a difficult market this morning:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market opens 8am around 23830, has a look at big figure 900 and then settles into a long and choppy range centering arond the 865 mark. Such a directionless market is not really suited to my method but I try to pick off a couple of range break failures, all trades with a 14pt stop and 14pt 1R initial target.

Trade #1 is a long at 65 after a sharp spike down to 45 is immediately reversed. This gets to a best of +11pts before reversing back to scratch me out at breakeven, my having brought the stop to there as we neared the +1R mark. This would have won eventually if held on at the original stop.

Trade #2 is a short at 77 at the other edge of the range after the market jumps up above the 80 level and immediately falls back. This one gets to +10pts best before reversing to scratch me out again. This also would have won eventually if held on at the original stop.

Frustrated, I now decide to forget trying to fade the range and will wait for a decisive break to go with the flow. I think I see this with trade #3 as the market breaks sharply out of the range bottom from testing the 80 high. I am short at 48 on a hidden failed bounce within the large down candle at 9.10am on the chart. This gets to +13pts before reversing to a scratch; at least this time it would have been a full -1R loser if the original stop was maintained.

After all this, I give up for the day. Three trades that all got close to my 1R target but ultimately I go home with nothing. Results could have been a lot different if I were willing to take less than 1R profits or if I left the initial stop alone. But that is not my method and I have the accept the consequences of my disciplines. I much prefer that to routinely overriding my rules, if you do that you are soon randomly and emotionally shooting from the hip and that does not tend to end well as a trading methodology!

Still, nothing lost and will try again next time, hopefully in friendlier market conditions.
  • #599
  • Jul 8, 2025 3:46am Jul 8, 2025 3:46am
Hi all,
A complete hat trick of trades this morning - a loss, a scratch, and a win to look at:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250708_09.17.png Size: 26 KB

Market opens 8am around 24105, has a jump to 150 before dropping back and settling into a range below 100. Like yesterday, the sideways market doesn't really suit my method but I sit and watch for a possible trade.

Initially, I am inclined to the short side given the sharp decline from the 150 level, so when I see the market failing three times in short order to break above 100 I decide to try a short at 98. The setup looks OK but is an almost instant failure with an immediate jump to just stop me out at 12. Annoyingly, it rolls right back over and leaves me looking at what would have been a nice winner but actually nursing a full -1R loss. Obviously, a wider stop would have saved me but, as yesterday, that is not my method and such losses I have to accept with as much good grace as I can muster (not much, I confess!).

Seeing the market back in a downtrend I would like to try another short, thinking the market is very likely to test and crack the prior 70 lows. So I try another short at 88 after a small bounce. This gets as far as +10pts at 77 before jumping back up and requiring me to take the scratch at 88. This is a good exit as my analysis was wrong and the market, rather than testing 70 starts running up strongly and my scratch saves another -1R loss.

Now I suspect the market is going to move up having formed this extended range base in the 70-110 area. But I want some sort of confirmation of a trend change so I wait until the market clearly breaks the prior 110 range high before deciding to look for a long. I take an entry at 14 after a little dip back and this time I do get a win as the market powers up, allowing me to exit into strength at 31 for +17pts or 1.2R.

Overall, an obviously mixed day but I am happy that the trades were all acceptable ones in accordance with my method. I do not mind if valid setups do not work but I am concerned if I see myself taking trades I really shouldn't. That would be ill-disciplined trading and painful experience tells me it is a losing idea. The only worse thing for me than that would be not respecting my stop loss but I can't show you an example as, happily, I haven't done that for a very long time! If there is one single thing in trading that is most important in being profitable, I would definitely say it is that.
  • #600
  • Jul 14, 2025 2:53am Jul 14, 2025 2:53am
Hi all,
After comparatively unhelpful markets and no real progress last week, today brings an easy win and a good lesson in the value of being able to plod along relatively undamaged through leaner patches:
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Market opens 8am around 24006, rushes up to make a double high above 70 before it stalls and swiftly rolls over back to the 40 level. The combination of the opening rush up followed by a sharp reversal, the clean moves, and the double failure to break 70 gets me interested in an early short. I wait for the bounce off 40 to fail at the 60 mark and turn down again, this giving me my desired setup: an observed multiple failure of the opening run up + a presumed failed bounce on the way back down. Thus, I am happy to take a short at 55 with a stop at 69 above the bounce high and a 1R target at 41 just above the immediate prior low. This works almost instantly and I am out into weakness on the next bar at 38 for +17pts, 1.2R, exiting into the sharp down bar. I did not want to take on the 40 low in case of a bounce from there but I got a few bonus exit points as price slumped. As usual, braver traders than me could have held on for more with the move low being just above the 20 level.

Quite a standard and easy trade for my method today, a complete contrast to the grind of last week. All of which goes to show the value of not getting frustrated or ill-disciplined when conditions are against you. Just sit and wait, a more suitable market will come along soon enough and you can make your profits there - just don't throw away a whole load of money out of impatience whilst you are waiting!
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