Anyone watching this pair today/tonight?
Would like your thoughts regarding the 3-day bars . . . did anyone take a trade and why?
Regards, K
Would like your thoughts regarding the 3-day bars . . . did anyone take a trade and why?
Regards, K
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DislikedI use Oanda.....new daily bar opens 9:00 PM PDT.....or midnight EDTIgnored
IBFX: GMT
CoesFX: GMT +3
MetaQuotes: GMT +2
FXDD: GMT +3
Fibo Group: GMT +2
MoneyTec: GMT +3
Orion: GMT +4
Alpari: GMT +2
Forex LTD: GMT +2
Real Trade: GMT +2
CFGTrader-Demo: GMT+2
North Finance: GMT+2
FXCM GMT-4
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Oanda GMT-5
Marketiva GMT
DislikedI personally used the North Finance demo account, which uses the MT4 platform. This appears to be a particularly attractive option because it takes about 2 minutes to open, it will never expire, and it's MT4. The feed is GMT+2.Ignored
DislikedAfter having problems in the begining with charts not matching either I am on the same thing now. I like it betetr than the FXCM charting stuff so I have stayed with it and like it. Newbar starts for me at 5pm Eastern (which is EDT i guess for everyone)Ignored
DislikedOK, it only took me 5 minutes but here are the results of my little EUR/JPY test.
In the period starting 7 Feb - 7 August 2007, there were 15 cases where the three day criteria was fulfilled. If I had opened positions in the expectation that the following days would continue in the same direction, I would have closed 10 of those positions at midnight 24 hours later* in profit, which means that 5 were not.
Here are the major details of each 'trade':
12/2 - LONG position opened at 158.85, closed at 158.11 for 74 pip loss.
20/2 - LONG open 157.69, close 158.88. 119 pip gain.
28/2 - SHORT open 156.13, close 156.83. 70 pip loss.
06/3 - SHORT open 151.21, close 153.05. 184 pip loss. (Ouch!)
05/4 - LONG open 158.58, close 159.39. 81 pip gain.
13/4 - LONG open 160.63, close 161.30. 67 pip gain.
27/4 - LONG open 162.58, close 163.27. 69 pip gain.
11/5 - SHORT open 161.65, close 162.51. 86 pip loss.
15/5 - LONG open 163.01, close 163.44. 33 pip gain.
08/6 - SHORT open 162.52, close 162.77. 25 pip loss.
18/6 - LONG open 165.16, close 165.89. 73 pip gain
27/6 - SHORT open 165.80, close 165.21. 59 pip gain. (finally a short win)
02/7 - LONG open 166.71, close 166.75. 4 pip gain.
09/7 - LONG open 168.05, close 168.21. 16 pip gain.
25/7 - SHORT open 166.19, close 165.33. 86 pip gain.
*I know this isn't the method as set out by TheThing, but we've already cast doubt upon the efficacy of the SL and TP points and this test just shows how powerful this methid could be if we tuned it up a little a) to stop out our losses earlier and b) to leave our profitable trades to run.
So, to the analysis of this small set of data.
Overall, this method without any discretion would have brought in a 168 pip profit, but an obvious correlation can be seen between SHORT positions and losses, and this is explained by the fact that EUR/JPY was in an uptrend over most of this period (between 7th Feb and 12th July, EUR/JPY moved up by 1000 pips).
If we remove the trades against the trend (all short positions up to 25th July - at which point EUR/JPY had began to lose pips rapidly, forcing us to rethink the assumption that the pair was in a strong uptrend), the pip haul would have been 474 pips, with 10 trades, 9 of them winners.
And there, my friends, is indisputable evidence as to why we should never trade against an established strong trend with this method.Ignored
DislikedAfter having problems in the begining with charts not matching either I am on the same thing now. I like it betetr than the FXCM charting stuff so I have stayed with it and like it. Newbar starts for me at 5pm Eastern (which is EDT i guess for everyone)Ignored