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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #2,001
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:05pm Aug 6, 2007 8:05pm
Just wanted to share something...
This is what I feel is going on at this point...
The Fib extension based on 15min Fractal is complete (at 1.618), so there is some hesitation.

http://img03.picoodle.com/img/img03/...0m_55c8c02.jpg

In the chart below, you'd see the 50% retracement upwards for the down move is 118.85 (Yes Dove's Central Pivot)
And coincidently the 1.618 Fib extension (sorry forget to stretch the chart to allow visibility) is 118.30 area (Yes the Daily Pivot area)
Well just wanted to show the laws of Fibonacci at work.
So... this to me explains the hesitation.. and in time to come, someone will show the way... my 2cents
http://img33.picoodle.com/img/img33/...0m_bacba2b.jpg
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #2,002
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:05pm Aug 6, 2007 8:05pm
its getting close to the 50sma. I think it'll hit 118.50 if it is lucky then turn up. maybe my indicators will confirm this.......anyone?
  • #2,003
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:06pm Aug 6, 2007 8:06pm
One thing about my 20 minute chart trend line is like in this scenario, it has not made its crossing and won't until it retraces or moves sideways. Why, I don't know, I just follow it. Just like this last early morning it went sideways for 9 hours until the crossing and then it went up like it suppose to..... So, we will see what happens tonight because of right now, that trend is still up. If it continues down then it eventually make the crossing.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,004
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:08pm Aug 6, 2007 8:08pm
I wish I could use a 20 minute chart. I don't think MT4 has one....

well I guess I could use a free charting site actually
  • #2,005
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:18pm Aug 6, 2007 8:18pm
Quoting jasonowl
Just wanted to share something...
This is what I feel is going on at this point...
The Fib extension based on 15min Fractal is complete (at 1.618), so there is some hesitation.
You did good job placing those fibos
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,006
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:25pm Aug 6, 2007 8:25pm
That is something else traders should learn about is Fibos. It is time consuming but also rewarding once you understand them.... I use pivots because fibos has a tendency to take me from focus..... plus you need a good understanding of the MACD.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,007
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:29pm Aug 6, 2007 8:29pm
Quoting dove_alliance
I'm always anticipating that retrace.... If it should not, then I will wait for the return trip or get in for 10 to 15 pips. and then wait for the return or the drive for the next pivot.
Dove

Since the price has gone to 118.61 which is the 1/2 way mark between daily and central pivot and it hasn't retraced back to 118.86, then you will go short to 118.37?
  • #2,008
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:31pm Aug 6, 2007 8:31pm
So far it still looking good for the Daily.... I got in at the 68 so I will continue to ride it....
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,009
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:33pm Aug 6, 2007 8:33pm
Quoting moneypip
Dove

Since the price has gone to 118.61 which is the 1/2 way mark between daily and central pivot and it hasn't retraced back to 118.86, then you will go short to 118.37?
I got my limit set for 37 and if it should retrace I will take 3 pip profit and wait. But so far it looking good without the retrace but continue to be alert for it.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,010
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:34pm Aug 6, 2007 8:34pm
Quoting dove_alliance
So far it still looking good for the Daily.... I got in at the 68 so I will continue to ride it....
You mean you went long......right?

edit.

I'm just confused. i thought the trend was still up and you never go against the trend just buy on dips?
  • #2,011
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:38pm Aug 6, 2007 8:38pm
Quoting dove_alliance
So far it still looking good for the Daily.... I got in at the 68 so I will continue to ride it....
why did you enter at this price (i'm asking 'cos i want to learn)
  • #2,012
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:45pm Aug 6, 2007 8:45pm
Quoting kreeper_6
You mean you went long......right?

edit.

I'm just confused. i thought the trend was still up and you never go against the trend just buy on dips?
Nope - I am short because it is heading for the daily pivot. The trend I have on my 20 minute is the daily trend which it is still up. When it come to working pivots you must trade with them.... Going against the trend is when you are working the trend in which I was referring too. Now, when this hits the daily pivot the trend may still be up and then the turn around to the central again.. Don't confuse yourself with trends and pivots they completely different.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,013
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:48pm Aug 6, 2007 8:48pm
Quoting toppz
why did you enter at this price (i'm asking 'cos i want to learn)
Because Tokyo had came in taking it down and on the next 20 minute candle I enter at the opening. I never enter in the middle of a candle. I always wait for the next candle may it be the 5, 10, 20 or what every.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,014
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:48pm Aug 6, 2007 8:48pm
well I Thought the idea of not going against the trend meant never to sell on an uptrend , just buy on the dip. Like when it hits the daily pivot it will likely bounce up. I understand pivots vs trends.
  • #2,015
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:54pm Aug 6, 2007 8:54pm
(SP) statistical probabilites for the daily Fib Retracements of the UsdJpy
Attached Image
  • #2,016
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:57pm Aug 6, 2007 8:57pm
I always wait for the next candle may it be the 5, 10, 20 or what every.[/quote]

What determines your time chart?
  • #2,017
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:59pm Aug 6, 2007 8:59pm
Quoting kreeper_6
well I Thought the idea of not going against the trend meant never to sell on an uptrend , just buy on the dip. Like when it hits the daily pivot it will likely bounce up. I understand pivots vs trends.
If the central pivot and the daily pivot was only a 20 pip spread I would not be in this trade. The spread must be 30 pips or more for me trade in this matter...... Because the trend is up and will remain so until the crossing if that does happen..... If you have been with me during these sideway moves then you know I never got into a trade until the crossing..... in this Scenario it is still possible for the retrace but I will continue to ride it until the retrace happens or it hits the daily.... I got the experience on knowing when to get out with profit. What I have been teaching you is how to trade these pivots and what to look for to make profit.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,018
  • Aug 6, 2007 9:03pm Aug 6, 2007 9:03pm
I took the 3 pip profit and now I will wait.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #2,019
  • Aug 6, 2007 9:04pm Aug 6, 2007 9:04pm
seems we have a bullish hammer on the 30 min. 118.50 may hold.
  • #2,020
  • Aug 6, 2007 9:09pm Aug 6, 2007 9:09pm
Looks like that retrace is about ready to kick in so look out for it.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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