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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - A Real Trading Record

  • #561
  • May 6, 2025 3:44am May 6, 2025 3:44am
Hi all,
Moving on to today's trading, a comparatively standard effort from me today, emphasising consistency over ingenuity!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250506_08.54.png Size: 44 KB


Market opens 8am above the top of the chart at around 23390, spiked to 24330 before beginning a sharp collapse of 130 points before we see a first bounce around 23290. We get a short consolidation in the 290-330 area before a drop to 280 immediately rebounds to 310, matching a previous little spike (see green line on chart), then rolls over again. The combination of a strong downtrend, this double top type pattern at 310 and the failure of the market to hold the big figure 300 level tempts me into a short at 296. The stop is at the spike high at 310 and the 1R target of 82 is above the prior low, so all OK. This works nicely and I am quick to take my 1R profit at 82, not wanting to test the 80 low. Again, caution is to my cost today, the market continues to fall to the 250 level, leaving much on the table.

The interesting feature (to me at least!) today is the drop to 280 below the consolidation lows at 290 that sharply reversed back to 310. I could have seen this as a failed break & reverse that I desire - and indeed it is that - but it did not tempt me into a trade as it is against the primary downward flow. To go long I would have needed a second failed downward move and the market moving still higher - in keeping with the ideas expressed in post #560 above about not trying to pick bottoms. Instead, I was more interested in the failure of this bounce to 310 as a way of entering a with-flow short. It doesn't have to work any given time, fortunately it did here, but it does at least tilt the odds in my favour over a series of such trades.
  • #562
  • May 12, 2025 3:50am May 12, 2025 3:50am
Hi all,
A very volatile market this morning, calling for a display of considerable caution:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market opens 8am around 23700, bounces a modest 220pts to 22920 in the first two minutes, churns for a while in the 800-900 range before beginning a long slide downwards. Such volatility at the open is quite unusual so I respond with sitting on my hands for a while and resolving to trade a wider 20pt stop/1R target today rather than my usual 14pts in this market.

All through the 800-900 churning phase I am uncertain as to direction, only once it cracks down into the 700s in an unbroken slide am I ready to try a trade, on the short side. But the fact that it is an unbroken slide down gives me no entry - my method requires an attempted bounce that fails and rolls over. This does not happen for a full 160pts from 840 to a 680 low before a bounce to the 730 area. The green line on the chart shows several successive failed attempts to breach 730 and only when I see the last jump to 740 immediately reversing am I happy to try a short at 724. The stop at 44 is above the bounce high and the 1R target at 04 is above both the prior low and the big figure 00, all good. It works well and selling into the drop to 700 nets me a few extra positive slippage points, exiting at 98 for +26pts or +1.3R.

The interesting thing today is how long I had to wait to get an entry. I was itching to get involved short all the way down, and then I was worried that after such a long unbroken fall we may see a huge rebound rather than a failed bounce. All outcomes are possible but you have to respect your method and stick with it.
Trade what you see and not what you think is a pretty good moral for trading discipline and consistency. If I had been caught out on a huge bounce rather than it working out for me I would accept it as just the way things are. It was a good setup for my method, whatever the outcome, and so I have to trade it and accept the consequences or else I essentially have no method. And trading rudderless is not a good way to succeed!
  • #563
  • May 13, 2025 3:24am May 13, 2025 3:24am
Hi all,
A much quieter day today and an example of how trading can be frustrating at times:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250513_09.02.png Size: 40 KB

Market opens 8am around 23600 and churns listlessly between 560 and 620. In the absence of any clear directional flow I am reluctant to trade but eventually start looking for a possible short after we see an obvious double top at 620. I wait until the market decisively breaks the big figure 00 and go short at 88 with a stop at 02 above the big figure and a 1R target at 74 above prior lows. The market immediately falls to 78 and I move the stop to breakeven only to see a quick bounce off 80 to just me take me out for a scratch at 88 before it heads down again to my 1R 74 target and below.

This is just both annoying and frustrating but is the cost of caution. Had I left the trade alone to run I would have made my profit but after a +10pt move on a 14pt 1R target, plus the potential (proven in this case!) of a bounce off the round number 80 level, prompted me to play safe and move the stop to breakeven. Braver traders than me would have been fine.

You have to know and accept what kind of trader you are. Each style and psyche has both costs and benefits, and it is no good crying about things if your personal style costs you now and again. It has cost me today but I accept it as a kind of insurance cost against potential losses; and the market is always there to have another go subsequently!
  • #564
  • May 13, 2025 2:50pm May 13, 2025 2:50pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
You have to know and accept what kind of trader you are. Each style and psyche has both costs and benefits, and it is no good crying about things if your personal style costs you now and again. It has cost me today but I accept it as a kind of insurance cost against potential losses; and the market is always there to have another go subsequently!
Excellent work and explanation of the reality or practicing solid risk management at all times.

There are many who have good runs and then give it all back very quickly. Solid risk management (and excellent patience) will make sure you can hold onto profits and come back another day when you have an unprofitable period of time.
  • #565
  • May 14, 2025 2:07pm May 14, 2025 2:07pm
Quoting greatescape
{quote} Excellent work and explanation of the reality or practicing solid risk management at all times. There are many who have good runs and then give it all back very quickly. Solid risk management (and excellent patience) will make sure you can hold onto profits and come back another day when you have an unprofitable period of time.
Hi greatescape,
Thank you for your comments. I especially liked the "many who have good runs and then give it all back very quickly." because it so reminds me of me! That was the last major hurdle I had to overcome before I became a more consistently profitable trader: each good run was followed inexorably by a drawdown of at least equal magnitude, driven by the faults of revenge trading and impatience. Getting over that problem of not being able to easily recover a modest drawdown kept me from progressing as a trader for such a long time. Eventually, I understood the answer was simply to keep chugging on in the same manner as before, just take one trade at a time and keep to my method, the result will be fine over time. Don't change just because you are little behind in the short term (unless you have good reason to suspect your method has become invalid, of course...). Easy to say, difficult to do!
  • #566
  • May 19, 2025 3:15am May 19, 2025 3:15am
Hi all,
A choppy market today and as interesting for the trades I didn't take as the one I did:

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Market opens 8am with a big 2 bar burst up then settles into a choppy range mostly in the 730-700 area.
My method could happily have seen me enter short early on at about 15 at either of the two green arrows shown. In both cases the market is rolling over after rebounding a down move to touch big figure 00. I did not take these as I don't really trust moves off 00, they can bounce really sharply and keep going; and on a 14pt 1R target it would mean taking on 00 again to get my profit. All a bit too suboptimal for my tastes - though both would have won as it turned out - so I left alone and watched. Sometimes it is good to pass on a trade if you are not comfortable, there will always be another bus coming along soon enough so you may as well be patient and wait for a good opportunity to trade rather than force something on.

And sure enough, things develop within a short while. We see two more attempts for the market to unsuccessfully breach 00 and after the immediate sharp rebound off the last one I am happy enough to try a long now at 13, on exactly the principle expounded above of often seeing a sharp bounce off 00 - especially as this is coming off the fourth failure in a row to break down. When a market can't go in one direction, it is quite likely to go in the other! The stop at 99 is below 00 and the 1R target at 27 is up at prior range highs but perfectly achievable. Happily, we get a spike up through 30 and I get a couple of extra bonus points exiting into the move at 29 for +16pts, 1.1R.

Not an ideal morning for my method, I prefer to have some proper directional flow, but I hope you can see that the method can be adapted to work in choppier markets also without losing the basic principles of it all. You will have to trade in both directional and choppy markets so it is worth thinking about how your method can work in both conditions even if it generally favours one or the other, as most methods do.
  • #567
  • Edited 7:02am May 19, 2025 6:48am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting Oldtraderman
Hi all, A choppy market today and as interesting for the trades I didn't take as the one I did: {image} Market opens 8am with a big 2 bar burst up then settles into a choppy range mostly in the 730-700 area. My method could happily have seen me enter short early on at about 15 at either of the two green arrows shown. In both cases the market is rolling over after rebounding a down move to touch big figure 00. I did not take these as I don't really trust moves off 00, they can bounce really sharply and keep going; and on a 14pt 1R target it would...
Very good observations and trading and I finally decided what category of traders you belong to, outside of your technical analysis knowledge and hard work earned experience. Ready?

Intuitive Trader.

P.S. Intuition can not be bought, it is priceless. I believe, I am also in that club
  • #568
  • May 19, 2025 7:15am May 19, 2025 7:15am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Very good observations and trading and I finally decided what category of traders you belong to, outside of your technical analysis knowledge and hard work earned experience. Ready? Intuitive Trader. P.S. Intuition can not be bought, it is priceless. I believe, I am also in that club
Hi driven18,
Thank you for your kind words, but if I were genuinely an intuitive trader I would find the whole thing a lot easier and a lot more profitable than I do! Whatever abilities I now have as a trader, they originate from many years of trading, doing just about everything wrong that there is possible to do wrong in this game; but, happily, at least learning from the experiences and slowly improving with time and age!
  • #569
  • May 19, 2025 7:31am May 19, 2025 7:31am
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} Hi driven18, Thank you for your kind words, but if I were genuinely an intuitive trader I would find the whole thing a lot easier and a lot more profitable than I do! Whatever abilities I now have as a trader,they originate frommany years of trading, doing just about everything wrong that there is possible to do wrong in this game; but, happily, at least learning from the experiences and slowly improving with time and age!
Notice how you doing now happily less wrong - big part of it is intuition.
  • #570
  • May 20, 2025 2:46am May 20, 2025 2:46am
Hi all,
A quick and pretty easy trade this morning, a good example of how trading gets easier if you stick to a defined method:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250520_08.29.png Size: 45 KB


Market opens 8am around 23975, immediately tests the big figure 400 before falling back into a clear downtrend. We see a first attempted bounce at the 940 level that gets up to test the 65 level a couple of times, this bounce top area marked in green on the chart. The combination of an established downtrend and successive failures to hold the 60 level constitute a bulk standard entry setup for my method:
1) a directional flow + 2) a failed bounce = 3) enter with the flow on resumption of flow, with 4) stop above bounce high & 1R target above prior low.

All of these are in place with a short at 59, stop at 73 and target 45. It works immediately and I get bonus points exiting at 41 into the sharp downward expansion, netting 18pts or 1.3R (apologies this is wrong on chart, my bad maths!).

This was not hard for me as all I was doing was waiting and looking for this kind of setup to occur. I am not looking for anything else so it is simple and easy, and as soon as I see a valid setup I will take it, no second-guessing or hesitating. Now, I know I said yesterday (post #566) that I passed on two setups but that decision had a reason, see the discussion in the above post. However, if no valid objection exists, I will take the trade. This again keeps things easy and simple, and all it requires is a prior mental acceptance of whatever the outcome will be. No setup comes with a 100% guarantee - it's more like a 50% guarantee! - but if you don't consistently follow your method you will just be making things harder for yourself. If you find you can't follow your method then you need either to change it to something you can follow, and/or gain more experience with it in demo/tiny size so that your trust and confidence in it builds sufficiently.
  • #571
  • May 26, 2025 2:39pm May 26, 2025 2:39pm
Different bakery, same bread. Pure oldtraderman.

TP = SL = 15 pips. See white dashes.
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  • #572
  • May 27, 2025 4:32am May 27, 2025 4:32am
Excellent job, by both of you. Solid entry and exit.

Also, kudos on trading Memorial Day. I did the same, traded only during the first half hour of the US market and then stopped. Very slow after that, but steady grind upward.

I scratched on the day, 1 win and 1 loss, coming out only slightly ahead after commissions. Walked away after that.

Congrats to all who took out profits today.
  • #573
  • May 29, 2025 3:22am May 29, 2025 3:22am
Is the DAX more predictable between the Frankfurt Open and the London Open?

See also post 571.
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  • #574
  • Edited 3:57am Jun 2, 2025 3:00am | Edited 3:57am
Quoting ikdenk
Different bakery, same bread. Pure oldtraderman. TP = SL = 15 pips. See white dashes.{image}
Hi ikdenk,
I'm really pleased to see you are trading OK using some of the principles expounded in this thread. I have always thought that the ideas here are enduring, repeatable and transferable; not just a unique personal quirk of mine. Your trades are some sort of independent verification of those beliefs, many thanks indeed for posting.

PS As for your later post about the DAX possibly being more predictable at certain times, to be honest I almost never find the markets predictable! If anything, I see certain more reliable patterns than I see more reliable times of day, e.g. a weak failed bounce in a strong directional trend is for me just about as predictable as anything I am going to see. That said, my net trade success rate is under 50% so the statistics certainly do not back up any such confidence I may have in that or in my ability to exploit it well!
  • #575
  • Edited 3:49am Jun 2, 2025 3:31am | Edited 3:49am
Hi all,
Have been away for a few days but back now and straight into a very volatile opening for the DAX today. Happily, a bit of patience to wait for something that looked like a more secure entry paid dividends:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250602_08.46.png Size: 24 KB

Market opens 8am around 23850 , jumps immediately almost 150pts to have a look at big figure 24000 before reversing equally sharply a modest 240pts or so to bottom out at 23760, all in the first 30 minutes of trading. In such volatility I am always going to sit on my hands and wait for the market to settle a little bit and try to gauge the directional flow. That said, I was tempted in both directions during the intervening sideways consolidation between 23930-70 and did do a couple of mental paper trades that worked out. But the real money stayed in the bank as I waited for a directional move out of that consolidation to occur, this giving me the likely way to want to trade. Indeed, we get a very powerful downward break but there is no real bounce on the way down for me to get involved, the best chance being the missed minor pause opportunity marked in green around the 23880 level.

As mentioned, the market bounces strongly off the 23760 low, this not too surprising given the extent of the fall but it does not invalidate my wish now to get involved on the short side. We see two attempts by the market to break above that 23880 level and the second failure is enough for me to try a short at 77. The stop at 91 is above the bounce high and the 1R target at 63 is above the immediately prior low so all OK as a setup. It happily pans out fine and I quickly take a 16pt, 1.1R profit at 61. As usual for me, this is too cautious and the drop went as far as 25, so again plenty left on the table for braver traders than me.

I hope you can see the value today of holding fire in volatile conditions until the market starts behaving in a way you are more comfortable with, and duly gives you the setup you are looking for. It still may not work out but the discipline of waiting for the market to offer you what you want is invaluable to avoid the pain of taking too many suboptimal trades. The market will always be there quoting prices for you, you really don't have to take all of them!
  • #576
  • Jun 3, 2025 3:29am Jun 3, 2025 3:29am
Hi all,
Another volatile start to the DAX with today's trading giving a useful demonstration of many of the required traits for successful trading:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250603_09.20.png Size: 21 KB

Market opens 8am around 24040 and immediately starts falling, accelerating into a vertical collapse all the way down to 23820 before we see a first attempted rally. Such blatant directional behaviour makes me want to trade only with the downward flow, the danger being the chance of a very aggressive bounce after such a sharp fall. However, we only see a weak stagger up to test the 23860 level three times in four bars, the last failure tempting me into a short at 54, stop at 69 above bounce high and 1R target at 40 is above prior lows. So, all good and next bar falls to less than 1pt from the initial target before the feared aggressive bounce duly occurs right up to 23930. I am irritatingly scratched out at 54, having moved the stop quickly to breakeven as the trade moved materially in my favour. Just as well, as leaving the trade on would have led to a bigger than 5R loss on the bounce; and that is the kind of thing you need to avoid at all costs if you ever hope to be a consistently profitable trader.

But the market stalls out at the 930 level and the rally is still small compared to the opening drop so the short is still the preferred way to go. As the market rolls over it wobbles unsurprisingly at the big figure 900 level before turning down, the third failure to hold 900 is my cue to try another short, this time at 95. The stop at 09 is above the wobbles high whilst the 1R target at 81 is above the immediately prior low but still very achievable if the downtrend reasserts itself given the morning low way down at 20. Happily, the market instantly falls and I am happy to close at 81 in the same bar for my 1R profit. Once again, braver traders could have held for more - as mentioned, the earlier low is down at 20 - and the market gets below 60 for some useful extra profits if you, unlike me, find it easy to hold on.

I hope you can see that the trading today involved some basic analysis to decide to trade on the short side, some discipline & sound risk control to take the frustrating scratch trade, and then the peserverance and consistency of method to have another go with the next valid setup. All these traits of methodical analysis, discipline, risk control, consistency and perserverance are required if you are to trade profitably over an extended period, so it is an excellent idea to cultivate them in your trading routines and practice.
  • #577
  • Edited 4:05am Jun 9, 2025 3:39am | Edited 4:05am
Hi all,
Expected this morning that the market might be quieter as it is Whit Monday holiday in Germany today; but, regardless, the market carried on in its recent volatile manner, giving us some interesting gyrations to analyse:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250609_09.09.png Size: 21 KB

Market opens 8am, rushes up to test round number 300 level before reversing into a sharp downtrend all the way to a 150 low. There was an intermediate and obvious failed bounce (or flag pattern, if you prefer) highlighted in gold on the chart, but I resisted the temptation to take a short there as it all happened a bit fast for me - I am not that young and quick any more! - and, more seriously, I prefer if I can to see a multiple test of a bounce failure; this failure was a sharp spike to the 240 level and straight back down. Also, you can never be sure early doors whether the market is making a failed bounce in a trend or is simply displaying high two-way volatility and racing back up. All put together, I held off and waited.

Thereafter, the market settles in a range in the 200-230 area, highlighted in green on the chart. I am vascillating between going long or short as the trend direction is not at all clear. Ideally, I'd like to see a breakout and run from the consolidation, and I would then look for a failed bounce trade in the direction of the run. But such a happy picture is not forthcoming so I decide to try to trade the consolidation range. We see the market make three failed attempts to break below big figure 200; on the third failure I am tempted in long at 07 with a 93 stop at range lows and a 21 1R target below range highs. So, a reasonable setup that happens to work well this time and I quickly take my 1R profit at 22, not wanting to test the range highs. Braver traders than me, as usual, could have held on for rather more, the market did go on to test the 40 level.

I hope you can see how I approached the trading this morning. You have to follow what the market does and work within it, not predict or demand it does something for you, the market is rather bigger than you are and really does not care what you think! You have to stick to you method, of course, but apply it in the context of the observed price action.
  • #578
  • Jun 9, 2025 3:55am Jun 9, 2025 3:55am
Hi all,
Completely off-topic, I am looking for some sports advice from any baseball fans out there. I am getting into MLB and, despite enjoying being a neutral observer, would like a team to follow a bit. I know almost nothing about any team's history and, of course, I am here in London, not the USA.

To give you an idea of my fan personality, in the NFL I have long followed the Detroit Lions because:
1) historically they have not been very successful in the Superbowl era; I know they have been good the past couple of years, but I was in when they were abject and I thought they could do with some more love from somewhere. As an aside, I went to an international NFL game in London a few years back with c.90,000 others and saw just one Detroit Lions replica shirt being worn (and that guy was only wearing it because he liked Matthew Stafford, not the Lions especially- I asked!).
2) I discovered that, despite being in Detroit, the Lions play in Honolulu Blue! I just love the irony and misplaced optimism of that.

Any suggestions for teams I should consider?
Thanks in advance
OTM
  • #579
  • Jun 9, 2025 8:13am Jun 9, 2025 8:13am
Quoting Oldtraderman
Hi all, Completely off-topic, I am looking for some sports advice from any baseball fans out there. I am getting into MLB and, despite enjoying being a neutral observer, would like a team to follow a bit. I know almost nothing about any team's history and, of course, I am here in London, not the USA. To give you an idea of my fan personality, in the NFL I have long followed the Detroit Lions because: 1) historically they have not been very successful in the Superbowl era; I know they have been good the past couple of years, but I was in when they...
May I recommend hockey? There is a great Stanley Cup final going on now. Best hockey of the year played by 2 best teams. Here are the highlights.

Inserted Video
  • #580
  • Jun 9, 2025 10:43am Jun 9, 2025 10:43am
If you want to keep things uniform, the Detroit Tigers are having a great year. They have the best record in the MLB at 43 wins and 24 losses! Not sure they maintain it but a fun team to watch. NY Mets are really fun this year as well!
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