USD/JPY Discussion

Hi guys,

Anyone knows why does Dove_alliance use 118.30 as a low rather 118.17?

It is as well the 61.8 of the bigger upward wave

and a good resistance during March and a good support during last 10 days of April

So from 118.76 to 118.11 at this point. Good day.

u guys just dun hv a clue what is happening now....maybe this pair will go lower ....

maybe we would see 117.60 by next week if not this morning!

I'm short, so I'm doing exactly what I want.

From which points do you draw your fibonacci lines? How did you know? That's an awesome pip grab!

I actually didn't know, I have just literally been watching this chart almost all day. I knew that there would be a retrace once it hit below 118.20 and then I drew the fibo from high above 119 to the low of 118.15 still short now and it's headed below 118

bear flag USDJPY, objuective 117.60, the low of Aug 1. Shoud be fun on
Sunday in Asian open.

Agreed. After this the next retracement from the move to 124 is 117.06

On June 22nd when it hit the 124.00 a new trend formed for the short – down – According to long term pivots and fibo there were three target areas for the bottom. 118.50 – 118.00 – and 117.60 which was the anchor, the heavy one. On the 26th of July it hit the first target of 118.50. The next day on the 27th it tried to reverse for going back up and during this period it hit the next target of 118.00. This movement had turned everything into consolidation in which all week it has been doing so with 100+ pips per day on the ups and downs including hitting the anchor – 117.60. On the 2nd a new bottom formed for the trend up at the 118.32…. Friday’s announcement had again driven the Yen back to the 118.00 which is the 2nd target on the down.

Now, is the consolidation finish….. Who knows; and won’t know until this coming week. But when it again gets above the 118.32 the new trend will form according to the new fibo. But on the other hand, there is still the 117.60 to contend with. As for the fibo…. I use it on the daily only and the draw is from the high on the 22nd of June – 124.09 - to the low that hit the other day of 117.58

This is why daily pivots are crucial, at least you have targets as it is consolidating and you don’t have to try and guess which way it is going. Just like Friday…. It got below the S1 (118.55) once again on the movement up and when that happened the next target was the S2 (117.91) or the 118.00 in which I used for the limit when I enter at 118.50.

Daily chart:

 

1. Fibonacci retracement levels (115.18 to 124.12) & (124.12 to 117.58)

Daily candle closed below 61.8% fibo and a weekly Trendline on my chart, next targets are 117.56 and 116.60


http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/3871/ujjc7.gif

Anything is possible in this market - long term indicators says it is getting ready to turn but they are only 80% right. In reality. the dollar will decide how far down this will go..... In a moments notice they can turn this thing in a heart beat if they decided too. Past experience have proven that.

One other thing I forgot to mention is that the long term fibo is not the only thing that determines movement but also, very crucial to the movements, are the long term pivots which can turn on a dime at any pivot.

Long term S1 is 117.93 and the S2 is 112.02.... That is long term.

So you follow the weekly and monthly pivots as well?

Ofcourse everything is possible, honestly I have no clues about pivots.. I've never used them nor know how to plot them or work with them but I've seen you doing pretty good with them, keep up the great work

Just the weekly.... monthly is too far..... The weekly just helps to keep track of the trend... Just as I edit my last post the S1 for the long term is 117.93....

The 117.60 is a very hard pivot that goes back along ways..... and so is the S1 117.93 but it breaks the S1 a lot easier than the 117.60.... If you draw a line with those two pivots and go back you will notice the random deviation with those pivots. Back in latter part November of 06 it spent weeks between those pivots. Back In March into April it it spent its time going up and down over those pivots. Couldn't make up it's mind which way it wanted to go because it was in consolidation and then finally went up.

dove,

Just out of curiosity, have you always been an independent trader? Your execution these past couple weeks has been near flawless (and outstanding). You seem to fit the mark of a more experienced firm/bank trader. If this was all self-taught, you have done extraordinarily well in your studies.