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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - A Real Trading Record

  • #541
  • Edited 12:46pm Apr 20, 2025 12:16pm | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
Hi all, With the volatile conditions at the moment, my trading is proving to be early and quick. Another trade this morning that was done and dusted within 2 bars. Also a good example of how you can make money even when you are wrong, worthy of a more close-up look on the chart today: {image} Market opens 8am around 20870 and quickly collpases all the way down to touch 20700 before staging a recovery. My usual feeling here is that you normally see the market have a second test of a final low for a sustained recovery to occur. The only real exception...
Hey Oldtrademan, I have been reading and enjoying your thread. There are allot of good things in it, your struggles and successes written in a simple plain language all can understand. I recommended your thread to some struggling traders.

I choose to think of your last trade as a gamble. I know you bringing up points that worked out for you, but I say this was probably a C setup on the scale A(the best), B, C. However, you did trust your intuition, which is a component of trading that is rarely understood.

You can check out some of my charts postings, I been trading successfully for close to 4 years now and here are my percentages of importance in trading.

Entry - almost not important - 10%
Money Management - 40%
Mindfuck, Controlling Fear and Greed - 50%

Well, just wanted to say all that. Keep on chugging
  • #542
  • Apr 21, 2025 5:37am Apr 21, 2025 5:37am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Hey Oldtrademan, I have been reading and enjoying your thread. There are allot of good things in it, your struggles and successes written in a simple plain language all can understand. I recommended your thread to some struggling traders. I choose to think of your last trade as a gamble. I know you bringing up points that worked out for you, but I say this was probably a C setup on the scale A(the best), B, C. However, you did trust your intuition, which is a component of trading that is rarely understood. You can check out some of my charts...
Hi driven18,
Many thanks for your kind words and for contributing to the thread, much appreciated.

I am essentially in agreement with your breakdown of what is important in trading (though being, I suspect, of a different generation I would perhaps phrase the mental aspects slightly differently!), money/risk management and emotional control are far more important determinants of trading success than unduly worrying about your precise entry; though a good entry can help things along a fair bit and so I still put some decent effort into trying to find a suitable entry point for my trades.

As for my last trade (post #539), I don't really consider it or indeed any of my trades a gamble. Sure, they are all speculations with uncertain outcomes at best but they are all placed with a similar mindset in the context of how I see price unfolding before me, and always with solid risk control. I'm not really bothered about the outcome of any individual trade, it is how I do over a long series of similar trades that interests me.

It also usefully raises perhaps the more important question of what is gambling vs. what is speculation. To me, a gamble is accepting a fixed odds wager with the percentages set against you, e.g. playing roulette; a speculation has variable odds of success that can be in your favour, and how you manage that speculation can and will affect the outcome. If I play roulette for long enough it is mathematically certain I'll lose all my money however carefully I place my bets, but if I trade well for long enough I fully expect to be ahead at the end of my series of speculations. If it were otherwise you would as likely find me at the roulette table as my trading screen but I was last spotted in a casino (and, I must confess, ever so slightly worse for wear) one evening sometime in the 1990s...
  • #543
  • Apr 22, 2025 3:07am Apr 22, 2025 3:07am
Hi all,
Trust you had a good Easter. Back to trading and something approaching a carbon copy of my last trade (post #539):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250422_08.29.png Size: 40 KB


Market opens 8am around the 21160 level and immediately declines all the way to 21075 before mounting an attempt at a recovery. Given the opening downtrend, I am inclined to be looking for a short, hoping for a test of the 075 low, or at least the big figure 100. We see four successive bars stumble at the 130 level and this is sufficient to tempt me into a short at 25 on the fourth retreat. I am back to my standard 14pt stop/1R target today as volatility has quietened a little, that gives me a stop at 39 above the bounce high and a target at 11 well above the 100 big figure - a number I would not like to take on if at all possible. Happily, it works immediately and I am out next bar at 11 for +1R as the market sharply falls back to exactly test that 00 level.

I could have waited for a few extra points to nearer 00 given my market diagnosis but regular readers will know by now just how much a scared trading wimp I am. As it happens, the market massively bounces off the 00 level to 60 and I am content with my caution. As per the post #539 trade, I have been proven wrong in my market view - price is now going up from the 075 low rather than continuing trending down - but the combination of a decent entry point, a very achievable 1R target, and a lack of greed means I can still book a profit despite being wrong.

For your further interest I will attach below a bonus chart today, the same market rolled on a further 30 mins or so:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250422_08.52.png Size: 43 KB


You can see that the bounce to 160 did not hold, it did not signal a change in trend, and the market did go back to test the 075 low before settling into a churning sideways pattern. So, was I right in my analysis or was I wrong? I would say the answer was both, it all rather depends on your timing: I was wrong in the shorter time frame of the trade I took, but right in the longer viewpoint. But being right or wrong is not what made the money. Had I not closed my trade at 11 for +1R I would have been stopped for -1R at 39 before eventually being proved "right" on the fall back to 075. The message here is clear enough: how you structure and manage your trade is at least as important as how you analyse the market. You can be wrong and make money, as here, or right and lose money, as I have done innumerable times before. I guess that is what makes trading both interesting and frustrating!
  • #544
  • Edited 5:36am Apr 28, 2025 3:29am | Edited 5:36am
Hi all,
Quite a standard trade today but interesting in my emotions that accompanied it:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250428_08.59.png Size: 45 KB


Market opens 8am around the 320 level, pushes up to test 60 before churning down to have a look at the big figure 00. An erratic recovery to a fresh high at 80 follows before a turnaround and a slide back to retest 00. I find I am not really feeling in touch with the market this morning and watch the early action on the cusp of wanting to trade in both directions during these moves but not feeling entirely comfortable. Lots of lost money in the past has taught me - more correctly, burnt into me with the scars of losses - to sit on my hands and do nothing rather than force a trade on. Whenever I find my ideas are chopping over and over from long to short I know this means I actually haven't a clue and doing something will invariably be both stupid and costly.

So I sit and watch until I see the market steadily falling from the 80 high and feel sufficiently confident that I'd like to try a short into this presumed downtrend. I wait for a bounce from the 30 level to above 50 from where the market had turned down a few bars previously, I have marked the double top type pattern in green on the chart. The second retreat from the 50 level is my cue to enter at 46 with a stop of 60 above the double top and a 1R target of 32 above the prior local low. This happily works and I take my 1R profit at 32, not wanting to test the 30 prior low, I am still really not that comfortable with the market oscillations today. Once again I am proved overcautious as the market does indeed carry on down to retest 00. Plenty left on the table for braver traders but I am cautious always and particularly not at ease today, so happy to take my 1R profit and call it a wrap.

The trade today is pretty bulk standard for my method but I hope you can get an inkling of my thought processes this morning and how I dealt with them. And speaking of thoughts, today's win extends me to a streak of 7 consecutive winners - all full 1R or better winners, not even a scratch trade inbetween them. This is lovely, of course, but historically rather dangerous territory for me as I usually end a winning streak with over-casualness and/or over-timidness, both generally see me giving back a good chunk of those winnings. This time round I am going to hope that an old dog can learn new tricks and try to do better. To start that off, I am taking the rest of the week off, demo trading is the most I shall do.
  • #545
  • Edited 8:28am Apr 28, 2025 6:21am | Edited 8:28am
"The trade today is pretty bulk standard for my method but I hope you can get an inkling of my thought processes this morning and how I dealt with them. And speaking of thoughts, today's win extends me to a streak of 7 consecutive winners - all full 1R or better winners, not even a scratch trade inbetween them. This is lovely, of course, but historically rather dangerous territory for me as I usually end a winning streak with over-casualness and/or over-timidness, both generally see me giving back a good chunk of those winnings. This time round I am going to hope that an old dog can learn new tricks and try to do better. To start that off, I am taking the rest of the week off, demo trading is the most I shall do."

Congrats on 7 wins!

I call this personal phenomenon(quote above in bold) - "not being humble" and that is the when the danger arise. Guilty of it on occasions.
  • #546
  • Apr 28, 2025 2:39pm Apr 28, 2025 2:39pm
These were my trades yesterday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER40.pM1 18 1.png Size: 22 KB

First trade BE+ and automatic trail at +10, out on spike down (+4.3)

Second trade, bit premature (+14.3)
  • #547
  • Apr 28, 2025 5:25pm Apr 28, 2025 5:25pm
Just wanted to say EXCELLENT JOB Oldtraderman. I have been watching your posts for over a year and am blown away by your consistency.

I follow a slightly different method and do it religiously from one day to the next with similar results.

Thank you for your posts, they are always informative and show great experience behind what you do.

I would also say, having read and studied a numerous amount of your posts, that you are capable of quite better than what you envision as a "normal" return, and I'm very happy to see you pull out 7 wins today. Keep your confidence and keep pushing on with your strategy and very concise risk management, my friend.
  • #548
  • Apr 29, 2025 1:52am Apr 29, 2025 1:52am
Quoting greatescape
Just wanted to say EXCELLENT JOB Oldtraderman. I have been watching your posts for over a year and am blown away by your consistency. I follow a slightly different method and do it religiously from one day to the next with similar results. Thank you for your posts, they are always informative and show great experience behind what you do. I would also say, having read and studied a numerous amount of your posts, that you are capable of quite better than what you envision as a "normal" return, and I'm very happy to see you pull out 7 wins today. Keep...
Hi greatescape (do like the name!),
Thank you for your kind words and joining in on the thread, much appreciated. As for my perhaps having potential to make more money than I do, yes, my analysis shows that is very true, I'm just too cautious and risk averse to milk it for more than I do. But, then again, I make enough for my needs and I like to both keep my stress levels to a minimum and sleep like a baby at night!

You make a key point when you say "I follow a slightly different method and do it religiously from one day to the next" because it highlights the really vital idea that following your method, whatever it is, with care, discipline and consistency is what good trading is about. If your base method is no good, well, simple enough, change it! If it is OK (and it really doesn't have to be better than just OK) it will still be no good if you can't employ it carefully and consistently through a long series of trades over time.

Trading profits are built as an average overall result through time. Any individual trade is mostly a random speculation - it might work, it might not, the markets guarantee you precisely nothing. But a small edge over a long series of trades will build up excellent profits if your discipline and risk control is sound. But you really need that discipline and risk control precisely because any individual trade is mostly random.
  • #549
  • Apr 29, 2025 2:43am Apr 29, 2025 2:43am
Quoting ikdenk
These were my trades yesterday.{image} First trade BE+ and automatic trail at +10, out on spike down (+4.3) Second trade, bit premature (+14.3)
Hi ikdenk,
Many thanks for sharing, interesting to look at. If you want to (no problem if not) would be a nice variety for readers to understand more what your method is about rather than just watching me do much the same thing over and over!
  • #550
  • Apr 29, 2025 8:29am Apr 29, 2025 8:29am
"But a small edge over a long series of trades will build up excellent profits if your discipline and risk control is sound. But you really need that discipline and risk control precisely because any individual trade is mostly random.[/quote]"

Agree fully, but disagree with the words "any individual trade is mostly random" . All trades, after you enter with your edge, have random outcome.
  • #551
  • Apr 29, 2025 12:23pm Apr 29, 2025 12:23pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} As for my perhaps having potential to make more money than I do, yes, my analysis shows that is very true, I'm just too cautious and risk averse to milk it for more than I do. But, then again, I make enough for my needs and I like to both keep my stress levels to a minimum and sleep like a baby at night!
You continue to impress. You had a large winning day and are NOT getting caught up in the euphoria of your results, and instead are sticking with the game plan.

However, it was still nice to see you push for more while maintaining your risk management. Well done.
  • #552
  • Apr 29, 2025 2:09pm Apr 29, 2025 2:09pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} Hi greatescape (do like the name!), Thank you for your kind words and joining in on the thread, much appreciated. As for my perhaps having potential to make more money than I do, yes, my analysis shows that is very true, I'm just too cautious and risk averse to milk it for more than I do. But, then again, I make enough for my needs and I like to both keep my stress levels to a minimum and sleep like a baby at night! You make a key point when you say "I follow a slightly different method and do it religiously from one day to the next" because...
Today I posted my view on this wonderful business we call trading. I wanted to repost it here because of today subject but decided it is not appropriate.

Here is the link, if you would like to read it.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15231749
  • #553
  • Apr 29, 2025 5:59pm Apr 29, 2025 5:59pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} Hi ikdenk, Many thanks for sharing, interesting to look at. If you want to (no problem if not) would be a nice variety for readers to understand more what your method is about rather than just watching me do much the same thing over and over!
My main method is balantly and unashamedly copied from you: Continuation of immediate trend after stall and/or retrace with SL harder and TP easier to reach.

But there are other opportunities around the 25 levels, particularly the 00 levels and also 50 levels - hence the 25 grid on the chart above in post 546.

Also the immediate retrace of an oversized candle, often at the 00 level - hence the second counter on the chart at the price level.

My chart setup is a bit different, because I prefer candles. I also use a fixed 100 span and ATR of the last 20 candles to give me a measure of current volatility.

I have also added a 20 ema, because it has some significance to other traders (based on Bob Volman techniques).

The three dashed lines show the ask line and where the TP and SL lines will be when entered at that price level, helps with the main method.

I also use an EA on this particular br0ker so that I can enjoy positive slip on TP exit. I also use the EA to set SL at BE + 1 pip and trail the SL after profit reaches +10.
  • #554
  • Apr 30, 2025 4:29pm Apr 30, 2025 4:29pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} My main method is balantly and unashamedly copied from you: Continuation of immediate trend after stall and/or retrace with SL harder and TP easier to reach. But there are other opportunities around the 25 levels, particularly the 00 levels and also 50 levels - hence the 25 grid on the chart above in post 546. Also the immediate retrace of an oversized candle, often at the 00 level - hence the second counter on the chart at the price level. My chart setup is a bit different, because I prefer candles. I also use a fixed 100 span and ATR of...
Hi ikdenk,
Many thanks for that, does sound a tad familiar!

At the end of the day it is just trading with the flow after a retracement, how that is exactly structured and in what time frame or market it is operated in hardly matters so long as the basic principle is preserved. The edge inherent in it is twofold, I think: 1) trading with the trend tilts the directional odds in your favour; and 2) entering after a retracement gives you a much easier task of having a stop that is harder to hit and a target that is easier for the market to get to.

One thing that I don't think I've ever explicitly mentioned but that you point out here is the importance of the 00 and 50 levels. My observations over time strongly suggest the markets turn at these levels more often than randomness would predict. I believe it is a function of human nature to focus on obvious round numbers so, yes, I do always keep an eye out where these are. Actually, I quite dislike trading around the 00 big figures particularly as big jumps and reversals are common at this level and mess up my desired tight stops! So, often I will wait until the market moves definitively away from 00 before taking a position. Conversely, if in a position, a nearby 00 does seem to act as something of a magnet for price to be attracted to, thus enabling an easy exit tactic at just before the big figure is reached.

As for candles vs bars, I used candles for many years before switching to bars, I found I spent too much time looking at candle bodies and wicks rather than just focusing on the basic price structure the market was forming. I found bars easier for that but, again, it doesn't really matter as long as whatever you use makes the price flow and structure stand out for you.

On the tendency for an immediate retrace of oversized candles/bars, yes, this is I believe statistically demonstrable. That said, I had too many problems making it work for me - I found you very often got two oversized same-direction candles/bars before the immediate retrace and I wasn't getting anywhere, so chose not to focus on that pattern. I also like to exit into price expansion (see more on that below) so seeing a big move is more of an exit signal than an entry setup for me.

I used moving averages for visual trend guidance for a long time but eventually gave them up as I found it to be too much of a lagging indicator for me. For as much of the time it helped me see flow it equally also 'helped' me to act too late. It wasn't adding anything for me overall so I took the simplest path approach and just cut them (and all other indicators) out altogether - price on it own tells me all I need to know.

Your use of ATR for volatility is more rationally correct than my visually adjusting the chart scale approach. I am just too lazy and not mathematically inclined enough to look at ATRs, I found the rough eyeball approach good enough for me - but your approach is undoubtedly more the more rigorous one.

Finally, as for trailing a stop loss, never could get comfortable with this although it is, again, rationally correct. A trailing stop means the market takes you out rather than the trader arbitrarily deciding, as I unashamedly do! I just like to exit as soon as possible into favourable price expansion rather than waiting for the retrace to take out the trailing stop, but it does mean meaningfully running a trend is very unlikely for me. Not optimal but you can't have it both ways and it keeps me happy!

Many thanks again for the explanation, nice for readers to have a contrast of methods to consider.
  • #555
  • May 1, 2025 12:48pm May 1, 2025 12:48pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} You can check out some of my charts postings, I been trading successfully for close to 4 years now and here are my percentages of importance in trading. Entry - almost not important - 10% Money Management - 40% Mindfuck, Controlling Fear and Greed - 50% Well, just wanted to say all that. Keep on chugging
50% skill of entering and exiting the market.
50% psychology of entering and exiting the market.

Repeat.
  • #556
  • May 5, 2025 4:36am May 5, 2025 4:36am
Hi all,
Woke up this morning to the now traditional cold, grey and slightly damp day that marks a UK bank holiday and decided that trading the DAX might be a better use of the morning than getting out the barbecue! Inevitably, having proclaimed a 7 trade winning streak last Monday (post #545), it all came to a rather predictable end today. However, three trades resulted in each of a win, loss and scratch so worth a quick comparison:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 40_20250505_10.06(1).png Size: 57 KB

Market opens at 8am around 23090 (not shown on chart above), tests the 60 level before starting to march steadily upwards. After a spike to 23175 we see from about 8.30 a consolidation box form in the 130-150 area. I am undecided as to direction here but being an obvious box pattern of sufficient depth I am happy to trade either way should a failed break and reversal occur. About 8.50am we do see a spike above the box top at 50 which immediately reverses back in. This tempts me into a short at 48 with a stop at 62 above the spike high and a 1R target at 34 above the box low. All good except the trade only reaches 37 before jumping sharply and I am stopped for a scratch at 48 having moved the stop to breakeven.

The second spike out of the box matches the first and again immediately drops back again. I therefore try the trade again with another short at 48 but this time I am proved wrong and the market bursts up from touching 48 to quickly stop me out for a -1R loss at 62. Perhaps I should not have tried the second time but my experience is that the market often does this and the second spike heralds a decent reversal. Just not this time, however!

Anyway, being proved wrong I sit and watch for a while as the market marches on up to break the big figure 200, touches 210 with a double top formation and then starts to roll over, falling to 80. This double top and failure to hold the 200 level inspires me to look for another short. I see the market twice fail to breach the 00 level and am tempted into a short at 90 after the second failure. The 1R target at 76 is below the immediate prior low of 80 so it is perhaps more risky than I would like but this is compensated for by quickly moving the stop to breakeven as the trade approached 80 again. Happily, it does break down through and I am content with my 1R profit at 76 though braver traders might have taken the break as a signal of further downside and held on. This would have been correct as the market falls to test 50 but after my struggles this morning I am happy to call the whole day a halt with a net scratch result.

Looking more broadly at the chart this morning it can be seen my struggles were essentially the result of being the wrong side of the flow - I had three short trades in a market that is nicely up from the open. But you can't get everything right and I am happy to have finished with no net damage and will try again tomorrow.
  • #557
  • May 5, 2025 2:50pm May 5, 2025 2:50pm
I have marked your trades on my chart setup, maybe it offers another perspective:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER40M1 otm.png Size: 25 KB

Because 'our' approach (like all others) has only a return marginally higher than 50%, I decided to stop trading after a loss (or a win) which I did.
  • #558
  • May 5, 2025 3:08pm May 5, 2025 3:08pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
Hi all, Woke up this morning to the now traditional cold, grey and slightly damp day that marks a UK bank holiday and decided that trading the DAX might be a better use of the morning than getting out the barbecue! Inevitably, having proclaimed a 7 trade winning streak last Monday (post #545), it all came to a rather predictable end today. However, three trades resulted in each of a win, loss and scratch so worth a quick comparison: {image} Market opens at 8am around 23090 (not shown on chart above), tests the 60 level before starting to march steadily...
I trade 3 techniques, one of my techniques is to get in on the first retracement after change of the trend(character)...A+ setup with edgeful MM and controlling Fear and Greed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 38 KB
  • #559
  • May 6, 2025 3:02am May 6, 2025 3:02am
Quoting ikdenk
I have marked your trades on my chart setup, maybe it offers another perspective:{image} Because 'our' approach (like all others) has only a return marginally higher than 50%, I decided to stop trading after a loss (or a win) which I did.
Hi ikdenk,
Many thanks for your post and chart, nice for people to see an alternative presentation of the situation.
Actually, I believe there is a view in both psychology and philosophy that reality is different for each of us and only exists in our minds, there is no single definitive reality out there. I think trading is much like that, the market is there and posts the same prices for all of us but we see only our own unique interpretation of that. If nothing else, it helps to explain that trading is a very personal endeavour. You can't simply adopt someone else's trading strategy and use it exactly as it is because you literally don't see the world in exactly the same way. Sure, you could and should take on board sound basic principles but as a minimum you have to adapt the precise method to some degree to suit you so that you feel comfortable with it, in keeping with your reality.

A quick comparison of your post #553 and mine #554 is a decent example of this: we both claim to trade a similar way but how we each interpret and go about it is quite different. Fortunately for all of us, there is more than one way to make money!
  • #560
  • May 6, 2025 3:21am May 6, 2025 3:21am
Quoting driven18
{quote} I trade 3 techniques, one of my techniques is to get in on the first retracement after change of the trend(character)...A+ setup with edgeful MM and controlling Fear and Greed. {image}
Hi driven18,
Many thanks for the post. Your description of looking to get in on the first retracement after a change of trend is spot on; it is exactly what I am looking to do. I try to avoid trying to catch the turning point, I have lost way too much money in the past on that idea! In fact, one of the thoughts that has been lying for some time on the backburner in my head is to try out a strategy of picking tops and bottoms but placing the opposite trade. One day I will give it a go, as soon as I have figured out how not to second-guess myself which I know is what I will do!

I think it is a quote from the fabulous book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, attributed to the legendary trader Jesse Livermore: 'One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth - or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.' I agree nowadays 100% with that, hence I wait for the market to turn and then have a failed bounce before I will trade a reversed trend.

More widely, I would suggest everyone interested in trading reads that book. It is rather dated now - eighths and all that! - but some of the observations based on his trading experiences I think are both priceless and timeless. That said, it may also be well to remember that he sadly ended his life by suicide due to prolonged trading losses later in his career. Trading is to be enjoyed, not endured!
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