Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
- #14,608
- Edited 11:56pm Apr 18, 2025 11:43pm | Edited 11:56pm
Bitcoin daily. I think when a bar closes above the marked spike it will evtl. go up:{image}
Found support at the 6/8th MML, in conjunction with the lower boundary of the channel drawn thru the last 2 FPs.
I've adjusted my orange CMA length to 247 bars to match the spacing of the swings. This makes the orange CMA channel the dominant cycle at play.
At the current trajectory the bottom of the orange channel will contact the flip line in mid July, meaning we need to have moved higher by then or the orange CMA could turn down. Pretty safe imo.
- #14,609
- Apr 19, 2025 12:09am Apr 19, 2025 12:09am
Stocks bounced off the lower boundary of a channel drawn thru the last 2 FPs in conjunction with a mid level MML.
I've set the orange CMA to a length of 730 bars to match the price swings making the orange CMA the dominant cycle. The bottom boundary of the orange channel is close to the orange flip line, meaning it was much closer to breaking down than Bitcoin was. It's held that level for now and if price moves back to the lower boundary the orange flip line is now further away so much less likely the channel will break down.
I've set the orange CMA to a length of 730 bars to match the price swings making the orange CMA the dominant cycle. The bottom boundary of the orange channel is close to the orange flip line, meaning it was much closer to breaking down than Bitcoin was. It's held that level for now and if price moves back to the lower boundary the orange flip line is now further away so much less likely the channel will break down.
- #14,610
- Apr 25, 2025 11:35pm Apr 25, 2025 11:35pm
Bitcoin - aqua CMA on the verge of turning up but shouldn't start turning up until it's at the low point of the downswing. This is either very bullish or could mean the price just follows the aqua flip line for the next 30 days which would keep the CMA flat. 
- #14,615
- Edited 8:28pm May 3, 2025 8:12pm | Edited 8:28pm
A potential new indicator I'm working on called "Focal Point Finder" (FP Finder). It's made up of 3 lines, the aqua line is an average of the red & blue line.
I've drawn a channel around the price action and adjusted the orange CMA length to match that channel.
You can see that the FP Finder indicator average line (aqua) reaches a low at 1, a high at 2, a low at 3, and a high at 4, each point aligning with the orange FP and the centre line of the channel.
If this channel was to remain intact, the next FP should be a low at 5 and should occur where the channel mid-line crosses the price. However, the FP Finder has not bottomed and seems to be continuing lower.
This suggests that the orange FP will not form at the centre line of the channel and the channel will break down.
The orange FP will form at the halway point of the move lower but has not formed yet (based on the FP Finder). In other words price is probably only half-way (at best) to its lower target and the yellow channel I've drawn is likely in play.
I'm waiting to see if price does break through the bottom of the main orange channel. This will test the value of this new indicator.
I've drawn a channel around the price action and adjusted the orange CMA length to match that channel.
You can see that the FP Finder indicator average line (aqua) reaches a low at 1, a high at 2, a low at 3, and a high at 4, each point aligning with the orange FP and the centre line of the channel.
If this channel was to remain intact, the next FP should be a low at 5 and should occur where the channel mid-line crosses the price. However, the FP Finder has not bottomed and seems to be continuing lower.
This suggests that the orange FP will not form at the centre line of the channel and the channel will break down.
The orange FP will form at the halway point of the move lower but has not formed yet (based on the FP Finder). In other words price is probably only half-way (at best) to its lower target and the yellow channel I've drawn is likely in play.
I'm waiting to see if price does break through the bottom of the main orange channel. This will test the value of this new indicator.
Channel drawn for Bitcoin and orange CMA set to 249 bars to match the price swings.
If this channel is intact the major FP should form halfway thru yesterday's candle and we should see the FP Finder peak at that point. If the FP Finder does not peak at that point but continues higher, then price should break out thru the top of the channel.
(note the use of a VTL on the aqua average line. A break of the VTL directs our attention back to the highest/lowest point of the FP Finder.)
If this channel is intact the major FP should form halfway thru yesterday's candle and we should see the FP Finder peak at that point. If the FP Finder does not peak at that point but continues higher, then price should break out thru the top of the channel.
(note the use of a VTL on the aqua average line. A break of the VTL directs our attention back to the highest/lowest point of the FP Finder.)
