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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #481
  • Aug 3, 2007 9:18am Aug 3, 2007 9:18am
Quoting jacko
1.3700 is good to buy. (for me)


.

1.3700 was a good buy point. (1.3682 would have been nicer, but hey, my mother always said it was bad manners to "pick your bottom") http://forexfactory.com/images/smilies/rofl.gif

1.3750 is the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3700 (1.3750 - 0.0050 = 1.3700).

At the absolute worst, I will make break even.

It is real simple to me......
  • #482
  • Aug 3, 2007 10:20am Aug 3, 2007 10:20am
jacko, do u ignore news releases (like todays NFP)?
I figured a move like that could make a move of 100pips which would immediately stop you out
  • #483
  • Aug 3, 2007 10:23am Aug 3, 2007 10:23am
Quoting jacko
And yes, I still believe that 1.4500 is the longer term target.

1. The US is STILL a Trillion dollars in debt..... and it is STILL increasing.

2. The "big dogs" are the Central Banks...and they all want to be out of US Dollars for a lot more yet.

3. The carry trade story is just "noise" to distract smaller traders.... (the carry trade has been in existance forever and will continue for as long as there are interest differentials).


4. An interesting , and very profitable trade that Mark (an ex account executive at a large brokerage firm that now trades along side me) was to short the GBP and AUD against the US dollar. We were watching the Euro rapidly dropping from 1.3800 to 1.3700... and the GBP and AUD hardly moved !!!
I mentioned to Mark that either the Euro had to have a major and dramatic turnaround OR they (GBP and AUD) would follow the Euro with a sharp corrrection. Mark, being more speculative and gung-ho than me, took some good short positions in both GBP and AUD. GBP collapsed some 14 hours later, the AUD collapsed some 24 hours later. Very profitable for him. Pure opportunism. These opportunities are very rare !!!


.

An interesting anomoly is occurring again....

Euro spikes up 80 pips (from 1.3700 to 1.3780) and GBP barely moves 40 pips (now at 2.0395) and Aussie dollar doesn't move (now at 0.8570).

Seems as though both are a probability-positive trade. (Not for me ...but someone may want to consider it).

Good luck.



.
  • #484
  • Aug 3, 2007 11:25am Aug 3, 2007 11:25am
Jacko

Thanks for this great thread, i hav 3 open positions at the moment
1, long euro/usd @1.3663
2, long eu/usd @ 1.37
3, long eu/usd @ 1.3736
All of the trades are wirh 50 piptrailing stops and the worst I can do if the euro retraces is a profit of 10 pips on trade no, 3.
I want to ask you how you would trade this setup, and when will you start to open more positions or take some profit?
  • #485
  • Aug 3, 2007 3:43pm Aug 3, 2007 3:43pm
First time in my eight months of trading, I have made over 300 pips (over 100 of that today alone) in the last three weeks with my small account, following your method.

I want to thank you and many other experienced traders on this forum who have answered many questions on your behalf. I hope one day I can help others like that.

It is so generous of you to help newbies like me (a senior learning to trade successfully).

This is my first post and you will not see a post from me unless I have a burning question that has not been answered, or I have something extraordinary to contribute.

Best of trading to all your followers on this forum.
  • #486
  • Aug 3, 2007 4:08pm Aug 3, 2007 4:08pm
Jacko,

What is not simple to me is how you picked 1.3700 as a reversal. Just good ole' experience?

-Tom

Quoting jacko
1.3700 was a good buy point. (1.3682 would have been nicer, but hey, my mother always said it was bad manners to "pick your bottom") http://forexfactory.com/images/smilies/rofl.gif

1.3750 is the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3700 (1.3750 - 0.0050 = 1.3700).

At the absolute worst, I will make break even.

It is real simple to me......
  • #487
  • Aug 3, 2007 5:19pm Aug 3, 2007 5:19pm
Quoting jacko
Hi mbalta01,
....
Waiting to get hit again at 1.3650.

However, I am getting wary of this market. There is about to be a sharp and significant break in one direction very soon......

I just am not sure what direction
.
Hi Jacko,
Less than 12 hrs later, after hardly any change in price you were confident enough to say that 1.3700 looks a good entry. After you say that, the Euro heads south a while, changes direction and heads up to a little over 1.3700 again. Then it suddenly rockets skywards peaking at around 1.3815 (not far short of its recent all time high).

Now, I feel I understood your remark to mbalta01, because I too felt it was all so tightly wound up. But unlike you I was still too wary to buy at 1.3700 - having already done that and permanently lost some pips. So I wanted it to get above the 50% at 1.3730 before going long.

It can't be luck, because it happens too often.
It has to be a feel for the market - but what changed in those first 12 hrs to make you decide it was going to rocket north rather than south?

If you could bottle 'Jacko's E/U market feel' , it would sell as fast as viagra. Now there's a thought ....

Seriously, thanks so much for the alert and the demonstrqtion of how far most of us have potentialy to travel in our FX training.

Ian
  • #488
  • Aug 3, 2007 6:45pm Aug 3, 2007 6:45pm
Quoting tdion
Jacko,

What is not simple to me is how you picked 1.3700 as a reversal. Just good ole' experience?

-Tom
As I'm sure you know from the whole thread, the round numbers are the key points - in this case, I'd assume Jacko didn't see the retrace heading enough below 1.3600. With 1.3700 as the buy point, his s/l would be 1.3650. If he was stopped out, the anti-hedging strategy would have been set up if the euro made it down to at least 1.3600 (and picking him back up at 1.3650). So the perspective is on getting in with a stake in the ground, and then riding it up. Will Jacko get the right buy point each time? Of course not - but by focusing on the trend and keeping things simple - without lots of indicators and different timeframes, Jacko can focus and capitalize on days like today. A healthy dose of confidence helps too!
  • #489
  • Aug 4, 2007 4:29am Aug 4, 2007 4:29am
Quoting jacko


"I was actually thinking about posting another "live-time" trading journal, similar to the one that I started at DailyFX."


Jacko:


I would very much like to see you trading live on this forum using your present trading method . I would trade mini lots live along with you; and feel certain that others may too. It would help all greatly and would make for an interesting time. Now that you are only trading twice weekly and use, what I feel, a more simple system, live trading would be less stressful for you. Look forward to your answer.



"No way do I ever want to spend that much time answering all those (often mindless) questions."


I am a Newbie, but I am not interested in asking mindless questions, would much rather see your live trades and trade with you.



"The only way I would ever consider a journal would be to have a locked thread, where I just post my trades."


This would be wonderful and now that you have been shown how you can lock your threads, I do hope that you will do it.

Please know that your time and help here are very much
appreciated.




.
.
  • #490
  • Aug 4, 2007 7:26am Aug 4, 2007 7:26am
Hi Jacko,

I have spent the past 4 hours reading all your posts? (there maybe some I've missed.)

Anyway, I trade the GBP/JPY and since I've adopted trend trading I trebled my account this year up until the recent retracement back to 38.2 fib line.

What happened here was I was so confident in the uptrend that I fought the market and lost 60% of my account in less than a week. :-(

If I had applied you anti-hedging policy I would have had a very small drawdown (we live and learn).

My question is simple. How much of what you do can be applied to the GBP/JPY pairing?

Best Regards
David
  • #491
  • Aug 4, 2007 7:58am Aug 4, 2007 7:58am
Quoting rumbey
Hi Jacko,

What happened here was I was so confident in the uptrend that I fought the market and lost 60% of my account in less than a week. :-(
Most of us have been there, done that, so just take it as one of the lessons to be learned.
Quote
If I had applied you anti-hedging policy I would have had a very small drawdown (we live and learn).
See above
Quote
My question is simple. How much of what you do can be applied to the GBP/JPY pairing?
Best Regards
David
A couple of points here, as I see it. Jacko trades EURUSD, and has been trading for a while. I'm sure he trades that pair for good reasons, some of which may be that it does trend well, has small spread cost (though I would guess he's not with a normal retail b roker), and has a regular rhythm that suits his trading plan.

The problems with the Yen crosses are their general volatility, susceptibility to a higher degree of fear and greed than the EURUSD pair, and the fact that they seem (to my mind) to be the domain of high percentage of retail traders looking for the carry trade bonanza.

If you take the recent sell-off, the EURUSD pair fell much less in pip terms than the Yen X pairs. Although I'm not a fundie trader my take on this is that the driving forces behind the Euro's growth really haven't changed much. Big players are moving out of the dollar, and buying Euros. Risk aversion caused a small pull-back (small for us, I mean), but there weren't thousands of Japanese pensioners closing their trades at the same time as all the larger carry traders covering their a**es as well.

No reason not to apply the basics of Jacko's method to any pair, just understand the mechanics of each pair's movement, and adjust your thinking in terms of stops, re-entries and timing. GBPJPY has BIG swings, and as another trader around has said....300 pips on GBPJPY may not actually earn you as much as 180 pips on USDJPY (lower spread, smaller stops).
  • #492
  • Edited 10:11am Aug 4, 2007 9:56am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting jacko
1.3700 was a good buy point. (1.3682 would have been nicer, but hey, my mother always said it was bad manners to "pick your bottom") http://forexfactory.com/images/smilies/rofl.gif

1.3750 is the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3700 (1.3750 - 0.0050 = 1.3700).

At the absolute worst, I will make break even.

It is real simple to me......


Update on this trade:

1.3819 is now the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3769 (1.3819 - 0.0050 = 1.3769).

At the absolute worst, I will I will make a minimum of 69 pips profits less
expenses. (1.3769 - 1.3700 = 69).







.
  • #493
  • Aug 4, 2007 10:08am Aug 4, 2007 10:08am
Quoting brxxt
jacko, do u ignore news releases (like todays NFP)?
I figured a move like that could make a move of 100pips which would immediately stop you out
Hi brxxt,

Yes mostly I ignore them. If I have positions that are real close to the market price say one hour out, I may close them for safety, but it is not my usual practice.

Albeit the reaction time ofthe market is much more rapid, the stop loss and A-H strategies remain the same. News releases are simply treated as a normal market situation, only MUCH quicker time frames. It also means that you can make killer profits very quickly. (You can also make killer losses from slippage if your stops are too close)


.
  • #494
  • Aug 4, 2007 10:25am Aug 4, 2007 10:25am
Quoting Kanon
Jacko

Thanks for this great thread, i hav 3 open positions at the moment
1, long euro/usd @1.3663
2, long eu/usd @ 1.37
3, long eu/usd @ 1.3736
All of the trades are wirh 50 piptrailing stops and the worst I can do if the euro retraces is a profit of 10 pips on trade no, 3.
I want to ask you how you would trade this setup, and when will you start to open more positions or take some profit?
Hi Kanon


You are doing fine. Just keep doing what you are doing.

Just make sure that you put the trailing stop loss on EVERY trade.


.
  • #495
  • Aug 4, 2007 10:37am Aug 4, 2007 10:37am
Quoting tdion
Jacko,

What is not simple to me is how you picked 1.3700 as a reversal. Just good ole' experience?

-Tom
Hi tdion,

I did'nt pick 1.3700 as a reversal.... I thought that 1.3650 would be the limit of the retracement
from 13851.

I bought twice at 1.3650 for profit gains of 26 pips and 8 pips respectively.

I just missed out on getting set a third time when the market hit 1.3650 exactly. (I am still annoyed about that !!) I then watched the market heading up and decided that I would buy at 1.3700. And I did !!

So, I didn't pick 1.3700 as the reversal (I saw 1.3700 as the continuation of the upward trend from the correction down to 1.3608).
And I am STILL annoyed that I would have been in profit by ANOTHER 50 pips per contract if the market had been a little kinder to me at the last touch of 1.3650....ahhh, such is life as a forex trader !!)


.
  • #496
  • Aug 4, 2007 10:47am Aug 4, 2007 10:47am
Hi rumbey,

Quoting rumbey
Hi Jacko,

I have spent the past 4 hours reading all your posts? (there maybe some I've missed.)

Anyway, I trade the GBP/JPY and since I've adopted trend trading I trebled my account this year up until the recent retracement back to 38.2 fib line.

What happened here was I was so confident in the uptrend that I fought the market and lost 60% of my account in less than a week. :-( ALWAYS use a stop loss

If I had applied you anti-hedging policy I would have had a very small drawdown (we live and learn). A-H strategy is a DEFINITE stop loss

My question is simple. How much of what you do can be applied to the GBP/JPY pairing? Have never traded GBP/JPY. But same strategy should work depending on the "trendy-ness" of GBP/JPY and the size of your stop losses (also see PeterFM's excellent response above)


Best Regards
David
  • #497
  • Aug 4, 2007 11:19am Aug 4, 2007 11:19am
Quoting jacko
And yes, I still believe that 1.4500 is the longer term target.

1. The US is STILL a Trillion dollars+ in debt..... and it is STILL increasing EVERY month.

2. The "big dogs" are the Central Banks...and they all want to be out of US Dollars for a lot more yet.

3. The carry trade story is just "noise" to distract smaller traders.... (the carry trade has been in existance forever and will continue for as long as there are interest differentials).


................


.

As long as the US Govt continues to have significant Current Account Deficits every month, the world will continue to lose faith in the US dollar.


.
  • #498
  • Aug 4, 2007 2:18pm Aug 4, 2007 2:18pm
Quoting jacko
News releases are simply treated as a normal market situation, only MUCH quicker time frames. It also means that you can make killer profits very quickly. (You can also make killer losses from slippage if your stops are too close)
.

I once compared it to pressing the fast forward button
I find it very interesting to see you essentially view them in the same way. Just nice to know.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #499
  • Aug 4, 2007 2:40pm Aug 4, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting jacko
I did'nt pick 1.3700 as a reversal.... I thought that 1.3650 would be the limit of the retracement
from 13851.
Hey Jacko

What I really meant when I asked about you picking the retracement.... how did you do it? I mean, why didn't you think 1.3600 or 1.3550 would be the bottom?


I completely agree w/ you that news should be viewed as standard market conditions. Sometimes it works for you, sometimes against you. But in the end, you should come out the same, and with less ulcers!
  • #500
  • Aug 4, 2007 5:13pm Aug 4, 2007 5:13pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Hi Jacko

A question about SL.

i understand the 50 pip SL, but would like to know what your trailing number is.

I trade using FXCM and can easily place an order to buy at say 1.3700 with a Sl of 50pips and can add the trailing number to suit. I have tried various numbers from 10 to fifty, but would like to know what you use.

I love this method of trading and have applied it to some other currencies that have good healthy trends. just to see if it works for all. I would say in my oppinion you could trade any pair with this method.

thanks for sharing with us.

kind regards

MPP
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