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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #421
  • Jul 31, 2007 3:16am Jul 31, 2007 3:16am
Quoting brxxt
Say you plan to enter the market at the 50% retracement level, which for this example we will say is at 1.3700. The market is bullish. What Josh is saying is dont enter the market exactly when price hits 1.3700, wait for it to hit/come close to that level then bounce up 30-50pips before entering so even though the 50% retracement level is at 1.3700 you will enter at 1.3730-50 after it bounces off/comes close to 1.3700

Its sort of like making sure the 50% line was effective, its worth missing out on those 30-50pips instead of entering exactly at 1.3700 just to watch price not respond to the 50% retrace line
.. because this is a trend following strategy volatility is important, its what separates swing trading to trend trading and in my opinion which most would agree with on this thread.. swing trading is for gamblers not investors.. trying to predict a top/bottom is like trying to bang a supermodel, its great if it works out but chances are, its not gonna happen
Hi brxxt,
Your interpretation of what I said in my post is not complete.
I beleive that Jacko always waits for allows for the Fib/round number to be penetrated (to the down side if taking a long) by 30-50 pips then take the trade at the Fib/round number if/when the price comes back.

I.E. there are two possible places to get in off the same calculation. For ease of understanding I will assume a long trade in a short term downtrend , long term uptrend:

1. 30-50 pips higher than a FIB/Round Number after a bounce off that Fib/Round number.

2. At or close to the Fib/Round number after the price dropped 30-50 pips below the Fib/Round number and resumed the long term up-trend.

As you pointed out, Jacko always wants to be trading with the long term trend at his back.

In a rising market with both short and long term trends up, I believe he waits for the price to rise past a Rond number by 30-50pips then buys on the pullback to close to the round number. If it doesn't pull back - just go for the next round number.

Perhaps Jacko would like to clarify this?

Ian
  • #422
  • Jul 31, 2007 3:27am Jul 31, 2007 3:27am
Quoting brxxt
2 questions:

1) Does Jacko really use 50pip trailing stops? That seems too small to make big profits if your waiting weeks-months for a setup.

2) This is about the anti-hedging system: Can you apply the anti-hedging system to a trade that has broken even due to a trailing stop or is it strictly for when you are stopped out for negative pips? and do you use this when you trade against the trend?
Hi brxxt,
Answers to your questions. Note that the answers are based upon Jacko's normal trading method - not his long-term buy/hold (which is really just longer-term).

1. Yes, he uses a 50 pip trailing stop for the EURUSD (note that he pretty much only trades the EURUSD - we have speculated that based upon ATR, that would be a 75 pip trailing stop-loss for GBPUSD for example. And te 75 pips would apply to the anti-hedging also).
Does this close you out frequenly - yes. Does this matter - no, your capital is protected (can only lose max 50 pips + spread from whatever net profit position you have). Also see 2.

2. Yes the anti-hedging is applied to all trades - not just those that produce an 'expense' rather than a profit. So you get out when in doubt, then get back in when the trend re-affirms itself. Also you take further positions (based upon capital and MM limitations) at up coming round numbers.

If you look at this against a LLLOOONGG trend like EURUSD, you will see that it is very profitable.

Jacko has been long/out of EURUSD for over 1 year using this method!

I hope this helps,
Ian
  • #423
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:11am Jul 31, 2007 4:11am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi brxxt,
Your interpretation of what I said in my post is not complete.
I beleive that Jacko always waits for allows for the Fib/round number to be penetrated (to the down side if taking a long) by 30-50 pips then take the trade at the Fib/round number if/when the price comes back.

I.E. there are two possible places to get in off the same calculation. For ease of understanding I will assume a long trade in a short term downtrend , long term uptrend:

1. 30-50 pips higher than a FIB/Round Number after a bounce off that Fib/Round number.

2. At or close to the Fib/Round number after the price dropped 30-50 pips below the Fib/Round number and resumed the long term up-trend.

As you pointed out, Jacko always wants to be trading with the long term trend at his back.

In a rising market with both short and long term trends up, I believe he waits for the price to rise past a Rond number by 30-50pips then buys on the pullback to close to the round number. If it doesn't pull back - just go for the next round number.

Perhaps Jacko would like to clarify this?

Ian
Hi Ian

If I understand that correct 1.3700 would be a good point to go long in the current short term down trend, it's been to 1.3730 and is now back to 1.3700 = 30pips and round number with a 50pip SL

regards
Jason
  • #424
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:18am Jul 31, 2007 4:18am
Entered Long at 1.3700 with 50 points trailing stop.
If it goes against me will use Anti Hedging.

R.
  • #425
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:29am Jul 31, 2007 4:29am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting rancliff
Entered Long at 1.3700 with 50 points trailing stop.
If it goes against me will use Anti Hedging.

R.
hi mine was a question not a recommendation. Is your trade based on your understanding of the practice jacko applies?

I also went long at 1.3700
  • #426
  • Jul 31, 2007 10:57am Jul 31, 2007 10:57am
Quoting jacko
Hi Phonetic,

I have just made a ton of money. I am going to let this market settle down for another 24 hours while I think about it all.

There is no need for me to rush to enter a trade. I don't believe that we are going to see a spike straight back up to 1.3800 (which is where I sold my longs). So anything I buy at under 1.3800 is a bargain price for me. (Because I still believe that 1.4500 is the longer term target).

I still think that 1.3650 is a good buy point.



.

The above post was posted on 07-25-07 (post 611).


1.3650 was a good buy point. (1.3608 would have been nicer, but hey, my mother always said it was bad manners to "pick your bottom")

1.3726 is the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3676 (1.3726 - 0.0050 = 1.3676).

At the absolute worst, I will make a minimum of 26 pips profits less expenses. (1.3676 - 1.3650 = 26).

It is real simple to me......


.
  • #427
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:27am Jul 31, 2007 11:27am
Quoting jacko
It is real simple to me......


.
Hi Jacko,

Well... it is real simple to you...

May I know how you determine 1.365o is a good entry point?

Just trying to understand....
{Promotion Removed}
  • #428
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:30am Jul 31, 2007 11:30am
Quoting kelab4x
Hi Jacko,

Well... it is real simple to you...

May I know how you determine 1.365o is a good entry point?

Just trying to understand....
I believe it is because he said it was a nice round number like 1.3600 or 1.3700 or 1.3650 or 1.3550

At least that is my understanding of what he said earlier...
  • #429
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:34am Jul 31, 2007 11:34am
Quoting jacko
The above post was posted on 07-25-07 (post 611).


1.3650 was a good buy point. (1.3608 would have been nicer, but hey, my mother always said it was bad manners to "pick your bottom")

1.3726 is the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3676 (1.3726 - 0.0050 = 1.3676).

At the absolute worst, I will make a minimum of 26 pips profits less expenses. (1.3676 - 1.3650 = 26).

It is real simple to me......


.


And yes, I still believe that 1.4500 is the longer term target.

1. The US is STILL a Trillion dollars in debt..... and it is STILL increasing.

2. The "big dogs" are the Central Banks...and they all want to be out of US Dollars for a lot more yet.

3. The carry trade story is just "noise" to distract smaller traders.... (the carry trade has been in existance forever and will continue for as long as there are interest differentials).


4. An interesting , and very profitable trade that Mark (an ex account executive at a large brokerage firm that now trades along side me) was to short the GBP and AUD against the US dollar. We were watching the Euro rapidly dropping from 1.3800 to 1.3700... and the GBP and AUD hardly moved !!!
I mentioned to Mark that either the Euro had to have a major and dramatic turnaround OR they (GBP and AUD) would follow the Euro with a sharp corrrection. Mark, being more speculative and gung-ho than me, took some good short positions in both GBP and AUD. GBP collapsed some 14 hours later, the AUD collapsed some 24 hours later. Very profitable for him. Pure opportunism. These opportunities are very rare !!!


.
  • #430
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:40am Jul 31, 2007 11:40am
Quoting smjones
I believe it is because he said it was a nice round number like 1.3600 or 1.3700 or 1.3650 or 1.3550

At least that is my understanding of what he said earlier...
I have no problem with round numbers... but Jacko was saying that on 7-25-2007 when the price was at 1.3800...

The question is why 3.650? Not 1.3500 0r 1.3550...

Maybe he has a crystal ball with him...
{Promotion Removed}
  • #431
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:47am Jul 31, 2007 11:47am
Quoting kelab4x
I have no problem with round numbers... but Jacko was saying that on 7-25-2007 when the price was at 1.3800...

The question is why 3.650? Not 1.3500 0r 1.3550...

Maybe he has a crystal ball with him...
LOL I see what you are saying.. But, I think it was Jacko who said " Sit carefully if you have Crystal Balls "
  • #432
  • Jul 31, 2007 12:02pm Jul 31, 2007 12:02pm
No... it's actually a Jacko systems based on my understanding...

Look at the "Ride only the Northern train" tagline...

I have never shorted any market since last 2 months...

To that, I could only say... Thank you, Jacko...
{Promotion Removed}
  • #433
  • Jul 31, 2007 12:08pm Jul 31, 2007 12:08pm
Quoting kelab4x
Hi Jacko,

Well... it is real simple to you...

May I know how you determine 1.365o is a good entry point?

Just trying to understand....

Hi kelab4x,

1. I felt that this correction would be relatively shallow.

2. 50% retracement (from late June 1.3414 to late july 1.3851 )would have approx 1.3650.

3. Also, if you had been trading in late April and again in early July, you would have noticed/remembered that 1.3650 was a real battleground between the bulls and the bears so it has relevance as a support/resistance area.

4. Intuition ?? Being "in simpatico" with the market ?? developing a "feel" for the market. I dont know the answer.


Besides, I could be wwwwrong !!!!!
Maybe...just maybe, the market has peaked. I just don't believe that to be so.
If I change my mind, I will post it here. But I am still on the long side of the street.
  • #434
  • Jul 31, 2007 12:13pm Jul 31, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting jacko
Hi kelab4x,

1. I felt that this correction would be relatively shallow.

2. 50% retracement (from late June 1.3414 to late july 1.3851 )would have approx 1.3650.

3. Also, if you had been trading in late April and again in early July, you would have noticed/remembered that 1.3650 was a real battleground between the bulls and the bears so it has relevance as a support/resistance area.

4. Intuition ?? Being "in simpatico" with the market ?? developing a "feel" for the market. I dont know the answer.


Besides, I could be wwwwrong !!!!!
Maybe...just maybe, the market has peaked. I just don't believe that to be so.
If I change my mind, I will post it here. But I am still on the long side of the street.
Thank you, Jacko... will keep this in my "toolbox".
{Promotion Removed}
  • #435
  • Jul 31, 2007 12:14pm Jul 31, 2007 12:14pm
Quoting jacko
Hi kelab4x,

2. 50% retracement (from late June 1.3414 to late july 1.3851 )would have approx 1.3650.

3. Also, if you had been trading in late April and again in early July, you would have noticed/remembered that 1.3650 was a real battleground between the bulls and the bears so it has relevance as a support/resistance area.
Hi all!

I think that the confusion comes from the level of 50% fib. On my chart it is at ~1.3550, but I totally agree with the 3rd point.
Thomas
  • #436
  • Jul 31, 2007 1:19pm Jul 31, 2007 1:19pm
i've tried to fish out the fib lines from late june to the last peak and i get the chart below. the start point is from the break of the down trend, but i would normally draw these from swing lows to highs, and vice versa.

still, if this is what jacko meant, then it looks like he called it well (again!)...so far...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #437
  • Jul 31, 2007 4:06pm Jul 31, 2007 4:06pm
Quoting jacko
The above post was posted on 07-25-07 (post 611).


1.3650 was a good buy point. (1.3608 would have been nicer, but hey, my mother always said it was bad manners to "pick your bottom")

1.3726 is the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3676 (1.3726 - 0.0050 = 1.3676).

At the absolute worst, I will make a minimum of 26 pips profits less expenses. (1.3676 - 1.3650 = 26).

It is real simple to me......


.
Thanks for all your help, Jacko. I have been in black numbers since I began following this thread and your no-nonsense approach is refreshing in contrast to most of what is written about Forex trading.

I do have a question - assuming your stop was hit (my broker shows a low of 1.3673 a little while ago) where would you re-enter?

Thanks again,
Lou G
Old Benjamin was right
  • #438
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:23pm Jul 31, 2007 5:23pm
The way Jacko did his fibs he gets a 50% retracement. If you go from the big bottom on 13 June then the recent pullback is at the 38. Either is good, both is better - more traders will be using that point (confluence).
  • #439
  • Aug 1, 2007 1:57am Aug 1, 2007 1:57am
Quoting newbietrader101
Damm, Jacko is good. USA and Europe down like a bitch. Shangai stock market still staying up, but for how much longer? How much will he make? Lots and Lots. I wish i had followed him on thios trades. He told me in late June that this was coming.
Asian markets all down 3% and more. Damm, I wish I had got onto thisone too. never enough money, damm. shouldna bought the car.
  • #440
  • Aug 1, 2007 3:32am Aug 1, 2007 3:32am
Jacko,

I've just finished reading every post in this thread. (Unlike some lazy newbies) before I earned the right to ask questions. I have two questions please:

(1) When you say to apply the AH Strategy to ALL trades, do you mean all trades regardless of whether stopped out for a loss or a profit; or do you mean only those stopped out for a loss?

(2) In the chart below, I have Buy Stop orders in place for the levels shown by the yellow lines. I will apply AH Strategy to trades stopped out for a loss (and also winning trades depending on your answer to question one).

Is having these Buy Stop orders already in place the right way to do this? I mean is it okay to buy every 50 pips at 00 and 50 numbers, or should I only buy at 00 numbers?

I want to trade this exactly as you do, so let me give you a PROFUSE thank you in advance of any answers you wish to provide.

cici
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