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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #361
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:41am Jul 25, 2007 10:41am
post #588 was recorded at 0316 GMT and the euro dropped between 0700 and 0800 GMT, around 3-4 hours later (see shaded bar on chart)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #362
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:44am Jul 25, 2007 10:44am
Quoting jacko
This is me thinking out loud (or in writing).

Have just been having a review of the euro. Looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. This may be the start of another shallow correction, to around 1.3650? Have just tightened my SLs on my "buy and holds" (bought at 1.3300 and 1.3500 ) to 1.3750. May tighten SLs even closer in next 24 hours. Time to lock in some very substantial profits I think.


This is NOT a recommendation to any impressionable newbie to short the market. It is a recommendation to WAIT to find a better price to buy and profit from the long term UP trend.


But....I could be wwwwwwrong. (I have trouble saying that word...LOL)


.
Jacko,

Thanks for all your help..I for one, have changed my view on trading and am looking for a trend. Your "buy and hold" comments was when I made the leap...not only do you play the trend but you decided to "Super Trend"
Been watching Euro sit there, lets see what move it brings..On a whim last week entered into Nzd and Cad trends, seemingly low volitility. They were just sitting there trending on dailys. Not sure why no one was getting involved, up 200pips. The least stressful 200 pips I have ever made!

Thanks again Jacko,


generalz
  • #363
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:45am Jul 25, 2007 10:45am
Quoting Phonetic
jacko,

trying to learn here...what needs to happen to give us confirmation to go long?

love the thread btw keep up the great work

Hi Phonetic,

I have just made a ton of money. I am going to let this market settle down for another 24 hours while I think about it all.

There is no need for me to rush to enter a trade. I don't believe that we are going to see a spike straight back up to 1.3800 (which is where I sold my longs). So anything I buy at under 1.3800 is a bargain price for me. (Because I still believe that 1.4500 is the longer term target).

I still think that 1.3650 is a good buy point.



.
  • #364
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:47am Jul 25, 2007 10:47am
Quoting Dopey
Seekinglight,

Which MT platform/feed are you using?

Thanks.

Btw, your mailbox is full.


Hi, yea, just got notification.
It's InterbankFX demo feed, it's on GMT time.

Jacko:

Simply because I am confounded...why did you close out ALL positions if just a day or two ago you were aiming for 1.4+ on the long term positions?

I don't mind you closing out the "daytrade" ones, that's just sensible trading, but does killing off the longer term positions mean you stopped believing in the current trend or the shallow retrace idea?
Did anything significantly change to warrant FULLY closing out ALL positions?
Were they in jeopardy?

Just trying to understand..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #365
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:47am Jul 25, 2007 10:47am
i have it break 13800 between 0700 and 0730 gmt..?

Quoting howard
At the time the 5 min bar closed at 1.3805 and at 10:15 UK (09:15 GMT) the 5 min bar went through 1.3800 and the price dropped thereafter to this moment standing at 1. 3700
  • #366
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:47am Jul 25, 2007 10:47am
Quoting Isotonic
post #588 was recorded at 0316 GMT and the euro dropped between 0700 and 0800 GMT, around 3-4 hours later (see shaded bar on chart)

Thanks Isotonic.

That's really appreciated.


.
  • #367
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:54am Jul 25, 2007 10:54am
Quoting jacko
Hi Phonetic,

I have just made a ton of money. I am going to let this market settle down for another 24 hours while I think about it all.

There is no need for me to rush to enter a trade. I don't believe that we are going to see a spike straight back up to 1.3800 (which is where I sold my longs). So anything I buy at under 1.3800 is a bargain price for me. (Because I still believe that 1.4500 is the longer term target).

I still think that 1.3650 is a good buy point.



.
Hi Jacko

Did you close the positions at 3800 or were your stops at 3750 hit?
Regards
  • #368
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:57am Jul 25, 2007 10:57am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hi, yea, just got notification.
It's InterbankFX demo feed, it's on GMT time.

Jacko:

Simply because I am confounded...why did you close out ALL positions if just a day or two ago you were aiming for 1.4+ on the long term positions?

I don't mind you closing out the "daytrade" ones, that's just sensible trading, but does killing off the longer term positions mean you stopped believing in the current trend or the shallow retrace idea?
Did anything significantly change to warrant FULLY closing out ALL positions?
Were they in jeopardy?

Just trying to understand..

Hi SeekingLight,

It was just an "intuition" thing that the market was rolling over. Hard to define...I still think that this market is bullish, but I also thought that the shallow correction would be around 150 pips and, with the large number of "buy and hold" contracts that I was holding I didnt want to lose that much of my profit.

I can get back into this market in about 4 seconds (per broker trading platform) so I wasn't concerned about making a mistake and not being able to get back in to the bull trend.


.
  • #369
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:09am Jul 25, 2007 11:09am
Quoting Isotonic
i have it break 13800 between 0700 and 0730 gmt..?
You are correct
Regards
  • #370
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:19am Jul 25, 2007 11:19am
Quoting jacko
Hi SeekingLight,
It was just an "intuition" thing that the market was rolling over. Hard to define...I still think that this market is bullish, but I also thought that the shallow correction would be around 150 pips and, with the large number of "buy and hold" contracts that I was holding I didnt want to lose that much of my profit.

I can get back into this market in about 4 seconds (per broker trading platform) so I wasn't concerned about making a mistake and not being able to get back in to the bull trend.
.

Okay.
Well, I had this worrying feeling for most of last week after seeing all the reactions at the highs. USDCHF behaved very much the same at 1.2 / 1.1985. I think it's the pattern of folks accumulating shorts at the spikes, things waiting to push down...but I'm speculating.

Just wanted to throw up a chart Isotonic should love with the areas that seem important for this move down.(since Thomass asked why that area, maybe this also helps)


Basically if 1.3555 goes the EURUSD will most likely roll over and start crying and I personally would also be a bit surprised and have to take on a new view...

Then again trends don't die within a few hundred pips, do they...
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #371
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:25am Jul 25, 2007 11:25am
Quoting howard
Hi Jacko

Did you close the positions at 3800 or were your stops at 3750 hit?

Hi howard,

I sold them all just minutes after I posted the post.

And thanks again for your help in confirming the timings of my post and the start of the market decline. If I can return the favour one day I will try to be of help to you.


.
  • #372
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:33am Jul 25, 2007 11:33am
Quoting jacko
.....
I just want to make sure that my credibility remains clean.
Hi Jacko,
your credibility is not a problem I think. Not for me for sure!

Your thread is one of my favourites!

I wish you the best,
Obi Wan.
  • #373
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:36am Jul 25, 2007 11:36am
Quoting jacko
Hi howard,

I sold them all just minutes after I posted the post.

And thanks again for your help in confirming the timings of my post and the start of the market decline. If I can return the favour one day I will try to be of help to you.


.
Hi Jacko,
It looks like skill, it may be luck - but you certainly have plenty of it!
I also had a bad feeling about E/U,G/U,A/U,NZ/U and tightened all my stops about 4 hours before your post ( I am UK based).
Unfortunately, I had only recently been buying E/U on bounces off 1.3800 and G/U also - so that just meant a smaller actual loss on them. On the Aussie and the Kiwi I was already well in profit (and trying to apply your philosophy) - but it still hurt (especially as those tow have bounced up a bit since then).

Thanks for all the trading philosophy,
Ian
  • #374
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:38am Jul 25, 2007 11:38am
Quoting jacko
Hi howard,

I sold them all just minutes after I posted the post.

And thanks again for your help in confirming the timings of my post and the start of the market decline. If I can return the favour one day I will try to be of help to you.


.
My pleasure
Regards
  • #375
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:48am Jul 25, 2007 11:48am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Jacko,
It looks like skill, it may be luck - but you certainly have plenty of it!
I also had a bad feeling about E/U,G/U,A/U,NZ/U and tightened all my stops about 4 hours before your post ( I am UK based).
Unfortunately, I had only recently been buying E/U on bounces off 1.3800 and G/U also - so that just meant a smaller actual loss on them. On the Aussie and the Kiwi I was already well in profit (and trying to apply your philosophy) - but it still hurt (especially as those tow have bounced up a bit since then).

Thanks for all the trading philosophy,
Ian
Hi ianf0ster,

Do you know what is interesting ?? For the last couple of days I have been kicking myself that I never put GBP/USD into my "buy and holds" because I would have made sooooo much more.
850 pips from the GBP (vs 500 pips from the Euro) times x number of contracts ...= (a truly obscene) amount of money.


.


.
  • #376
  • Edited 12:07pm Jul 25, 2007 12:06pm | Edited 12:07pm
Jacko,

I have a hunch that it was your closing of your positions that made the central banks a bit nervous and set off this latest retracement in EUR/USD.

But really - your thread convinced me that I will never trade short term in Forex and also flushed me out of lurk mode to thank you for sharing your strategy and insights. I'm especially excited about the anti-hedge, makes perfect sense now that you spelled it out.

GK
Pip my ride.
  • #377
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:21pm Jul 25, 2007 12:21pm
Quoting jacko
Hi ianf0ster,

Do you know what is interesting ?? For the last couple of days I have been kicking myself that I never put GBP/USD into my "buy and holds" because I would have made sooooo much more.
850 pips from the GBP (vs 500 pips from the Euro) times x number of contracts ...= (a truly obscene) amount of money.
.

Why?
If you assume that cable moves more, you also would need to increase your stop size. Given that your profits are always a multiple of those (putting stop sizes to a given fixed percentage of your account) and that GBPUSD will need corresponding bigger stops to accomodate it, are you sure that bottom line more money is made?
Pips surely, but net profit?

I haven't thoroughly researched and backtested the ATR vs stop size, but let's say we take the ATR of the last 100 days for each and stop sizes and compare..

Just for an example:
GBPUSD stop size 75. ATR of 100 days is 81 pips currently.
EURUSD stop size 50. ATR of 100 days is 56 pips currently.

590 pips last swing EURUSD, 1036 cable.

Gives a rate of around 13.8x lever for GBPUSD(1036/75) and only 11.8x lever (590/50) for EURUSD. (assuming you'd enter once with tha stop and let it run to the very end. Profit is lever x % risk put in. Say you risk 1% of your account on the stop then you'd have made +13.8% GBPUSD vs 11.8% EURUSD)

So GBPUSD is better right?
Well, let's look again.

The March - April rally in GBPUSD was 950 pips, yet 814 for EURUSD.

GBPUSD gets 950 / 75 = 12.6, EURUSD 814 / 50 = 16.28.

So this time around EURUSD was a LOT better (12.6 lever GBPUSD versus 16.28 lever on EURUSD).

Why this skew? Simply because EURGBP shifts these two around a lot.

But in the end - putting 2% risk on 50 pips and having slightly smaller moves and putting 2% risk on 75 pips for bigger moves makes no really big difference as the lever relative to the average daily range remains ROUGHLY the same in the end.

This of course changes as the pairs fall in and out of favor, but you get the idea.

So more isn't always better or more money / profitable in the case of GBPUSD vs EURUSD.

Just wanted to clear this up since it's a very common misconception.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #378
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:16pm Jul 25, 2007 2:16pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Phonetic,

I have just made a ton of money. I am going to let this market settle down for another 24 hours while I think about it all.

There is no need for me to rush to enter a trade. I don't believe that we are going to see a spike straight back up to 1.3800 (which is where I sold my longs). So anything I buy at under 1.3800 is a bargain price for me. (Because I still believe that 1.4500 is the longer term target).

I still think that 1.3650 is a good buy point.



.
Thanks for the help jacko
  • #379
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:55pm Jul 25, 2007 4:55pm
Quoting jacko
Am i the luckiest SOB or what? Only three hours after I posted this and closed all my longs, the Euro craps itself and I save myself a small fortune.


What amazing good luck...not skill !!


Sometimes, the sun just shines on a person.


.
Wait, wait! I have figured out how Jacko does it! He has a time machine and he can go back and forth in time and thus really show off his pinpoint trading accuracy! I want one, where can I get it Jacko?

Just kidding... Congrat's on your great trades...

Johnny
  • #380
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:20pm Jul 25, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Why?


Just wanted to clear this up since it's a very common misconception.

Considering that you weren't being addressed in the post, SL, I don't know how in the hell as simple a statement as 850>500 caused such a lengthy post on ATR and stop size- it appeared to me that Jacko was merely stating that 850 is greater than 500, and that multiplying that difference between the two time the number of contracts would have increased his earnings by the proportionate amount. Why that simple statement triggered such an outpouring of dreck on your part, I don't know, but welcome to my ignore list.
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