HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis and News

Date: 17th April 2025.

Economic Data Lifts Crude Oil — Will Resistance Stall the Rally?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...0713af4479241b
Crude Oil prices rise for a second consecutive day due to supply chain concerns and positive Chinese data. The price of Crude Oil rose 1.58% on Wednesday, and a further 1.15% during this morning’s Asian session. However, this upward price movement has taken the asset to the key resistance level at $62.70. Is the price about to witness a decline due to the current resistance level?

Why are Oil Prices Increasing?
One of the main reasons why Crude Oil prices have been increasing in value is the positive economic data from China. China and the US hold the biggest influence over Crude Oil demand as the two countries are the largest importers. China's first quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4%, surpassing the projected 5.2%. However, analysts attribute this growth to a surge in demand for Chinese goods ahead of the anticipated tariff war and predict a potential slowdown by year-end.

Nonetheless, the oil market reacted positively to the news that the Chinese economy saw better figures than previously expected. Traders will be watching closely to see if deteriorating economic data in the coming months, driven by trade policy, will put downward pressure on prices.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngCrude Oil


The US also made public positive economic data from Retail Sales. The Retail Sales figure rose by 1.4%, the highest in more than 12 months. The Core Retail Sales also rose by 0.5%, higher than the projected figure and the previous month.

Furthermore, the US, UK and Japan have confirmed they will begin negotiating a trade agreement with the US. The tone is positive and can have a positive impact on the price of Oil. However, the key factor for the Oil market is whether the US will come to an agreement with China. In terms of supply, Iraq and Kazakhstan have announced additional output cuts to keep supply controlled. In addition to this, the US is imposing additional sanctions on Iranian oil which is further pressuring the supply side. Restrictions on supply chains are known to push prices higher.

The Federal Reserve and How the Economy Will Influence Crude Oil?
Even though economic data surprised the market and provided a positive tone for many assets, the Federal Reserve was less positive. The Chairman, Mr Jerome Powell spoke towards the end of the US session discussing inflation, employment and interest rates. According to Mr Powell, the Tariffs imposed by the US administration were higher than previous expectations.

According to the Fed, the trade policy is likely to trigger higher inflation, but it is unclear whether the higher inflation will be temporary or long-term. The Consumer and Producer Price Index over the next 3-6 months will be key for the Federal Reserve. The key statement that captured investors' attention was the chairman's remarks regarding the Federal Reserve's primary focus.

Powell said, ‘without price stability, we cannot achieve long periods of strong labor market conditions’. This comment was a clear indication that the Federal Reserve will concentrate on controlling inflation and will allow the employment sector to be temporarily hit. The hawkish tone from the Fed can be seen in the Fedwatch Tool.

The expectations of a pause have risen 14% over the past week, mainly due to the speech yesterday. However, the market still believes the Federal Reserve will cut in June 2025.

Crude Oil - Technical Analysis
The main concern for Crude Oil is the resistance level at $62.70, the domino effect of a Federal Reserve reluctant to cut rates and if the so-called ‘trade war’ escalates. As the price rose to the resistance level this morning, the asset quickly declined. Nonetheless, on a 2-hour chart, the asset remains above the trend line and above the neutral area of the RSI. However, the price is below the Volume-weighted average price. Therefore, we have conflicting signals.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngCrude Oil


However, if the price continues to decline and establish itself below the 200-bar simple moving average in the 3-minute timeframe, the sell signals are likely to strengthen.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Oil prices rose for a second day, driven by strong Chinese GDP, OPEC+ supply cuts, and renewed sanctions on Iran.
2. Positive economic data from China and the US boosted demand outlook, though analysts warn China's growth may slow due to upcoming tariffs.
3. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation control, and raising uncertainty about rate cuts despite strong economic figures.
4. Trade talks with the US, UK, and Japan lifted market sentiment, but concerns remain over a potential escalation in the US-China trade dispute.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th April 2025.

Market Wrap-Up: Stocks Mixed as UnitedHealth and Nvidia Drag, While Netflix Surges.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...3d69f72670cf29
U.S. equity markets closed Thursday’s shortened session on a mixed note ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.33%, pressured by a 22% plunge in UnitedHealth Group after it cut its earnings forecast. The Nasdaq Composite also dipped 0.13%, led lower by a 2.9% drop in Nvidia, which continues to struggle amid chip export restrictions to China.

In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a modest gain of 0.13%, supported by strength in energy stocks and a surprise earnings beat from Netflix. The streaming giant jumped in after-hours trading, driven by stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings, higher subscription prices, and robust ad revenue growth.

On the technical front, Netflix’s RSI has rebounded off the 50 level—historically a reliable signal for renewed bullish momentum. Resistance now sits at $1,065 and $1,300, while support is seen near $821 and $697.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields rose, erasing most of Wednesday’s gains. The 10-year yield climbed 4.8 basis points to 4.325%, and the 2-year yield rose to 3.785%, reflecting investor uncertainty and fading hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...1.original.png


Political Pressure and Tariff Concerns Stir Volatility
Markets also digested sharp political commentary that rattled confidence. Former President Donald Trump made headlines after attacking Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stating that his ‘termination cannot come soon enough.’ While Powell remains firmly in position, the remarks reignited fears over central bank independence—a cornerstone of monetary policy stability.

Additionally, tariff tensions resurfaced as the former president hinted at a more protectionist trade stance. With global supply chains still vulnerable, investors grew wary of renewed U.S.-China trade friction—especially in the semiconductor and tech sectors, where Nvidia and TSMC remain key players.

Asia Rallies in Holiday-Thinned Trading as TSMC Meets Expectations
Asian equity markets mostly posted gains on Friday despite Wall Street’s choppy session, as investors reacted to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) earnings and stabilized sentiment in the region.

 

1. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.6% to close at 34,583.29.
2. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3% to 2,478.39.
3. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.8% after TSMC met forecasts and offered cautious optimism despite ongoing chip export risks.
4. China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3% to 3,272.09 amid continued weakness in domestic demand.

Trading volumes remained thin across Asia ahead of the Easter holiday, with several regional exchanges closed.

Global Policy Moves: ECB Cuts Rates, Mixed U.S. Data Keeps Traders Guessing

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, yet investor reaction was subdued. The CAC 40 dropped 0.6% and Germany’s DAX declined 0.5%, reflecting concern that rate reductions may be arriving too late to stimulate faltering growth.

Back in the U.S., economic data sent mixed signals. Weekly jobless claims fell more than anticipated, highlighting ongoing labour market strength. However, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index contracted unexpectedly, showing continued weakness in factory output.

Combined, these updates reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold longer than investors had hoped, especially amid sticky inflation and political pushback.

Dollar Holds Ground as Bond Yields Rise and Gold Retreats from Record Highs
In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index remained steady near 99.44, posting a third consecutive close below the psychological 100 level. The greenback traded in a narrow range between 99.231 and 99.746. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly to 132.42 yen and the euro ticked up to $1.1373, maintaining its recent strength.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png


Gold prices, which touched record highs earlier in the week, slipped 0.49% to close at $3,326.85 per ounce after hitting $3,343.12 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded sharply:

 

1. WTI crude surged 3.5% to $64.68 a barrel.
2. Brent crude rose to $67.96.

The rally in energy was supported by bargain-hunting and concerns over global supply risks. Markets remained closed Friday in observance of Good Friday, pausing further moves in commodities and bonds.

Final Takeaway: Markets Enter Holiday Pause with Unresolved Risks

As the markets head into a long weekend, investor sentiment remains cautious. Strong earnings from companies like Netflix offer moments of optimism, but persistent concerns around tariff policy, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh heavily on risk appetite.

With bond yields creeping higher and volatility likely to return next week, traders should stay nimble and watch for cues from earnings reports, Fed speakers, and any developments on the trade or political front.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd April 2025.

Trump Eases Market Fears: Stocks Surge as President Declares No Intention to Fire Fed Chair Powell.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...b9cc2ca16a78e9
Trading Leveraged products is Risky

US stock futures surged on Tuesday after President Donald Trump clarified he has ‘no intention’ of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — a statement that helped soothe Wall Street concerns over central bank independence and policy stability. The President was answering a wide range of questions from the Oval Office. He also said he expects to make a deal with China, but if there is not, it is not the end of the end. China tariffs will come down ‘substantially’, he added.

ETFs tracking US equity futures are climbing and extending Tuesday's bounce in after-hours trading on these comments. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.2%, while S&P 500 futures advanced 1.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the rally with a 1.8% spike. Investors took comfort in Trump’s softened tone toward Powell, especially after recent criticisms and threats of dismissal that had roiled markets.

Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he ‘never did’ intend to remove Powell but reiterated his preference for lower interest rates. ‘I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,’ Trump added.

The president’s remarks came after he previously labelled Powell a ‘major loser’ and said his removal ‘couldn’t come fast enough.’ This shift in rhetoric signalled a truce, at least for now, between the White House and the central bank — calming investors rattled by fears of political interference in monetary policy.

Asian Markets Climb on Powell News and Trade Optimism

Global markets followed Wall Street’s lead. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.7%, Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi added 1.2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.7%. The Shanghai Composite was little changed, down just 0.1%.

The broader market mood was also lifted by new optimism around global trade. Trump indicated that tariffs on China could come down ‘substantially,’ while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called current tariff levels ‘unsustainable.’ Vice President JD Vance noted encouraging progress in US-India trade talks.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png

Tesla Soars After Musk Commits More Time to Company

Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 5% in after-hours trading Tuesday despite disappointing first-quarter earnings. The electric vehicle maker missed Wall Street expectations, but investors were buoyed by CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that he will dedicate more time to Tesla.

‘Starting early next month, in May, my time allocation to DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] will drop significantly,’ Musk said during the post-earnings call, adding that he’ll spend only one to two days per week on DOGE and the rest focusing on Tesla. The company also reaffirmed plans to launch new vehicles in the first half of 2025.

Oil Prices Rebound on Fed Comments and Inventory Data

Crude oil extended gains following Trump’s assurance about Powell’s job security and a bullish industry report on US stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $64 a barrel, reversing Monday’s losses triggered by political and economic uncertainty.

But Bitcoin appears to be charting its own path

Unlike stocks and bonds, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has climbed more than 8% during the same period, reaffirming its role — at least for now — as a hedge in investor portfolios. According to Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell, Bitcoin is doing “all the right things” to show it may be entering a new phase of market behavior, increasingly decoupled from traditional risk assets.

Zooming out to the post-election period, Bitcoin has maintained its momentum even as stock market gains have reversed. While the S&P 500 has slipped below 5,300, Bitcoin is trading above $91,000 — significantly higher than its pre-election value of around $68,000.

Of course, it's too early to call this a lasting trend. But in a climate where U.S.-centric investments are losing favor, Bitcoin’s recent resilience is turning heads across the financial world.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-500.png

Bank of Japan Seen Holding Rates Amid Global Trade Turbulence

In Asia, a Reuters survey of economists revealed that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its key interest rate through June, with a modest rate hike possibly coming in the third quarter. Only 52% of respondents now anticipate a rate hike between July and September, down from 70% last month.

Economists cited the uncertain global outlook, driven in part by Trump’s unpredictable trade policies, as a major reason for the BOJ’s cautious approach. While Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and a 24% tariff on Japanese goods — later reduced to 10% for 90 days — the impact has so far been disruptive but not severe enough to derail Japan’s monetary policy path.

Despite expected cuts to Japan’s economic growth forecast, 87% of surveyed economists said the country is unlikely to enter a recession. Many believe that a stronger yen and lower import costs could offset weaker exports, stabilizing the economy.

‘Exports will decline, but the strong yen will reduce import costs and boost corporate earnings,’ said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute. ‘And the suppression of consumer price increases is expected to support personal consumption, thereby an economic downturn is likely to be avoided.’

Markets were on edge after days of tension between the White House and the Fed. But Trump’s assurance that Jerome Powell’s position is safe — coupled with positive trade signals — helped spark a broad-based market recovery, from equities to commodities. As earnings season and economic data roll in, investors will be watching closely for signs that this rally has staying power.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th April 2025.

The Dollar's Role in a Recession Is Real—but Not Solo!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...2f72ab748e7aa3
Key Takeaways

 

1. The US dollar appears overvalued based on historical metrics.
2. Foreign investor exposure to US assets is at record levels.
3. Slower US economic growth and rising policy risks may reduce demand for the dollar.
4. The greenback’s reserve currency status remains secure, but depreciation pressures are building.
5. Inflation, trade balance improvements, and financial stability are all tied to the dollar’s trajectory.
6. Trade policy, more than the dollar itself, may determine the path forward for the US economy.

Forecasting currency movements—especially the US dollar—is notoriously difficult. Compared to predicting GDP growth, inflation, or interest rates, estimating exchange rate trends poses even greater challenges. Yet, despite this complexity, there’s growing evidence that the dollar's recent 5% drop on a trade-weighted basis could be just the beginning.

The Dollar’s Decline: A Signal or a Catalyst?
According to the Federal Reserve, the real effective value of the US dollar remains significantly elevated—nearly two standard deviations above its long-term average since 1973. Historically, similar levels were observed only in the mid-1980s and early 2000s. Both periods were followed by sharp dollar corrections, falling by 25% to 30%.

Could a deeper depreciation trigger broader financial consequences?

Massive Foreign Exposure to US Assets Raises Red Flags
Global investors have significantly increased their exposure to US assets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that foreign investors now hold around $22 trillion in US-based assets—representing approximately one-third of their total portfolios. Half of this investment is in equities, many of which are unhedged against currency risk. Should these investors begin reducing their exposure to US markets, the dollar could experience intensified selling pressure.

Even a pause in foreign inflows may weigh heavily. The United States runs a current account deficit of roughly $1.1 trillion per year, which must be financed through capital inflows. In reality, most of this financing has traditionally come from foreign purchases of US portfolio assets. If foreign demand for these assets falters, prices may fall, the dollar could weaken, or both could occur simultaneously.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...7.original.png


Slowing US Growth Could Dampen Dollar Strength
If the US economy were expected to continue outperforming other global economies, dollar strength might be more sustainable. However, this no longer appears likely. Economic growth projections have been downgraded across major economies, and the US has been hit hardest. For example, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2024-2025 US GDP forecast from 1% to just 0.5%.

With rising policy uncertainty, weaker corporate earnings, and doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence, international investors may become more cautious about increasing their US holdings.

Dollar Depreciation Isn’t a Death Blow—But It’s Not Irrelevant
Despite these concerns, a weaker dollar does not necessarily imply the end of its global dominance. It’s important to separate dollar depreciation from a loss of its global reserve status. Historically, the greenback has faced major swings before without losing its dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency. Its role as a global medium of exchange and store of value remains deeply embedded in the international financial system.

Implications of a Weaker Dollar

 

1. Consumer Prices May Rise
   A falling dollar could amplify the inflationary effects of recent tariffs. Core inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, may rise from 2.75% to 3.5%, with dollar weakness potentially adding another 0.25 percentage points. Ultimately, American consumers are likely to bear the brunt of higher import costs.
2. Exports Become More Competitive
   A weaker dollar reduces the price of US exports (in foreign currency terms) while making imports more expensive. Over time, this shift could help reduce the US trade deficit—aligning with longstanding policy goals.
3. Financial Conditions Could Tighten
   While a depreciating dollar can support easier financial conditions, the context matters. If the drop is driven by reduced demand for US assets, including Treasuries, the benefits could be offset by rising borrowing costs or declining market confidence.

The True Recession Risk Lies in Trade Policy, Not the Dollar Alone
While dollar movements matter, they’re unlikely to cause a recession on their own. The bigger threat is aggressive trade policy. Additional tariffs, especially if introduced after the current 90-day pause, or an escalation in the US-China trade conflict, could tip the balance. These decisions could undermine investor confidence and business activity—regardless of where the dollar stands.

The dollar is part of the recession puzzle—but not the whole picture. Its overvaluation, dependency on foreign investment, and declining support from global investors could compound economic vulnerabilities. Still, it's policy—especially on tariffs—that could ultimately determine whether the US slides into recession.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th April 2025.

Trade Tensions Hurt Confidence Across Europe

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...6891b014fea28c
Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The latest European confidence indicators highlighted the growing impact of global trade tensions on investor sentiment, particularly within the Eurozone. According to recent surveys, investor confidence has been notably dented, with the services sector showing greater weakness compared to manufacturing. This may be due to U.S. efforts to front-load imports ahead of potential tariff hikes.

Meanwhile, diverging fiscal policies between the UK and the Eurozone have further widened economic gaps. The UK faces limited fiscal flexibility and mounting pressure to stimulate domestic demand, complicating its response to external shocks.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...7.original.png

German ZEW Investor Confidence Plummets

Germany's ZEW investor sentiment index plunged in April following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. The index fell by a staggering 65.6 points to -14.0, reflecting growing pessimism about the economic outlook. While recent political shifts offered short-term relief to market sentiment, uncertainty remains elevated, suggesting this key forward-looking indicator may stay in negative territory.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...b.original.png

Eurozone PMI and Ifo Data Show Mixed Signals

Surprisingly, the Eurozone PMI and Germany’s Ifo business climate report showed resilience. Although the composite PMI dropped to a four-month low of 50.1—indicating stagnation rather than contraction—the weakness was concentrated in the services sector. The services PMI fell to 49.7, ending a five-month expansion streak.

Germany’s Ifo survey showed improvements in construction and business sentiment, driven by a rise in the current conditions index. The overall business climate index rose to 86.9 in April, up from 86.7 in March, defying expectations of a decline.

Trade Boost May Be Temporary as Risks Persist
Trade data from February revealed a 22.4% year-over-year jump in Eurozone exports to the U.S., with Ireland’s pharmaceutical-heavy exports surging by 200%. S&P Global noted signs of stockpiling and unplanned orders from U.S. clients trying to stay ahead of tariffs.

However, analysts warn this boost may be short-lived. As tariffs bite and the euro strengthens, European exports risk becoming less competitive. Despite hopes that EU goods could benefit from U.S.-China trade disputes, long-term gains are uncertain. If U.S. firms start to run down inventories, demand may soften.

Germany and EU Infrastructure Investment to Counter Trade Headwinds
Germany’s decision to raise borrowing for infrastructure and defense, alongside EU-wide investment plans, aims to cushion the blow from external shocks. Sentiment in the German construction sector has already improved, according to the Ifo report. While large-scale spending will take time to materialize, early signs show progress in the defense sector.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png

UK PMI Data Signals Growing Economic Challenges
Across the Channel, the UK economy is facing multiple headwinds. Government finances are strained, and recent fiscal data missed expectations. Although the UK may enjoy lower tariffs post-Brexit, its open economy is more vulnerable to global slowdowns.

Rising labor costs, due to higher National Insurance contributions and minimum wage hikes, have added pressure. The latest S&P Global UK Composite Output Index dropped sharply to 48.2 in April from 51.5, with the Services PMI falling to 48.9—a 27-month low. Manufacturing Output PMI also fell to 44.0, the weakest since mid-2021.

S&P Global attributed this decline to weakened client confidence and the impact of U.S. tariffs. Business outlooks have dimmed, with optimism at its lowest since October 2022. Rising cost burdens have prompted employment cuts, and inflationary pressures persist, despite easing energy prices.

UK Inflation and Rate Outlook: BoE Faces Tough Decisions
The CBI industrial trends survey painted a similarly cautious picture. Although total orders slightly improved, export orders deteriorated. Selling price expectations also rose, reflecting cost pressures.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized risks to growth and warned about the dangers of global economic fragmentation. While markets are pricing in another BoE rate cut, rising wage-driven inflation may keep UK interest rates elevated relative to the Eurozone.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th April 2025.

Can a Busy Week For the USD Revive The Dollar?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...e3a94777755f50
The first week of May for the US Dollar is likely to be the most important within the whole month. During this week, the US will confirm its NFP employment data, job openings, PCE Inflation, US company earnings and the Gross Domestic Product. The US Dollar has been the worst performing currency in 2025, but can this week’s releases change its performance?

Currency Market
In April, the best performing currencies are the Swiss Franc, Euro and Japanese due to their safe haven nature and a known alternative to the Dollar. The worst-performing currencies have been both the US Dollar and Australian Dollar. However, the US Dollar had slightly improved during the previous week meaning traders need to be cautious as to if the USD may retrace slightly higher.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngAUDUSD


The performance of the US Dollar is likely to continue to depend primarily on the US trade policy. According to experts, over the past week, investor sentiment has improved but for this to continue the news will need to provide a positive tone.

Lastly, the Japanese Yen could see volatility in either direction as the Bank of Japan is due to announce its rate decision later this week. Analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged but Governor Ueda is likely to provide indications of future rate hikes.

Australian Dollar and Australian Elections
The main developments which will influence the dynamics of the Australian Dollar is the Consumer Price Index (inflation) on Wednesday, Retail Sales and the elections over the weekend. The Australian Dollar Index is trading 1.85% higher over the past month. However, the AUD is still underperforming compared to other currencies. The AUDUSD has struggled to cross above the 0.64069 resistance level over the past month.

The Australian Dollar has been struggling over the past month as economists believe the inflation rate will continue to fall close to the 2.0% target. Current expectations are that the inflation rate will fall from 2.4% to 2.3%. Economists say the likelihood of an interest rate cut in May is diminishing but was previously the main expectation. The Australian Dollar has recovered from the sharp decline that had triggered urgent calls for action from the Reserve Bank.

However, if the US Dollar is to increase in value traders may take into consideration two opinions. The first is to trade the AUDUSD as the Australian Dollar is the worst-performing currency or the USDCHF as the Swiss Franc is the best-performing currency and can more easily give up recent gains.

US Dollar and Upcoming Releases
The US Dollar was 1.65% after starting the previous week on a negative price gap. However, even with the upward price movement, the US Dollar Index remains relatively cheap and still trades at its lowest since July 2024. Gold also declines during Monday’s Asian Session which is another positive sign for the USD. The US will release the following data in the upcoming days:

 

1. JOLTS Job Opening - Tomorrow
2. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - Wednesday
3. US GDP - Wednesday
4. Employment Cost Index - Wednesday
5. Core PCE Price Index - Wednesday
6. Weekly Unemployment Claims - Thursday
7. ISM Manufacturing PMI - Thursday
8. NFP Employment Change and Unemployment Rate - Friday

A big factor this week will continue to be the US Trade Negotiations. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced that negotiations between Washington and Beijing had already begun. However, Chinese officials denied that any talks were underway, fueling traders' uncertainty and dampening appetite for riskier assets. Nonetheless, the tone has been positive as both Trump and China advise they can make a trade agreement. China has already advised some goods will see tariffs lowered as a show of good faith.

Meanwhile, Trump signed an executive order to start a deep-sea mining initiative aimed at countering China’s dominance in certain commodities. The US plans to boost domestic production of nickel, copper, and rare earth elements.

Currently, the Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut interest rates but this can quickly change if employment data deteriorates. If the data this week beats expectations, the Fed is likely to stick to this tone and the US Dollar can gain bullish momentum. However, if this data reads weaker than the projections, the confidence in the Dollar can deteriorate and the Fed may be pressured to cut interest rates further pressuring the currency.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. This week’s major US data releases could decide whether the US Dollar rebounds or continues to lag.
2. Safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc and Yen remain stronger, but risks of losing momentum increase.
3. The Australian Dollar faces pressure from slowing inflation, soft retail sales, and upcoming elections.
4. Stronger US data and positive trade negotiations could fuel a Dollar recovery; weak data may trigger Fed rate cut fears.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th April 2025.

NASDAQ Climbs Higher as Markets Brace for Key Earnings and Jobs Data!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...b178023dbd0a53
The NASDAQ rose to a 4-week high as investors get ready for a crucial week ahead. The NASDAQ has earned back 46% of the price lost during the stock market crash seen in March and April. However, what is needed for the correction to continue? This week can be the deciding factor.

NASDAQ - Quarterly Earnings Report
Over a period of 48 hours, the NASDAQ will see 5 significant companies release their earnings report for the first quarter of 2025. The NASDAQ’s exposure as an index is exactly 27% towards these companies making the 48-hour crucial for the index. These 5 companies include the following:

 

1. Microsoft: Wednesday after market close - Up 7.61% over the past 5 days
2. Meta: Wednesday after market close - 11.84% over the past 5 days
3. Qualcomm: Wednesday after market close - 7.96% over the past 5 days
4. Apple: Thursday after market close - 7.07% over the past 5 days
5. Amazon: Thursday after market close - 10.45% over the past 5 days

The price movement of the 5 stocks over the past week has been relatively positive, but this is also partially due to the improvements in investor sentiment. Therefore, it is not necessarily solely due to the upcoming earnings reports. Out of the 5 stocks, analysts expect only Microsoft and Meta to see higher earnings and revenue compared to the previous quarter. However, the key concern for investors is that the actual figures either exceed or at least match the projections.

If the companies beat the expectations, investors are likely to witness the bullish momentum continue and potentially gain speed. However, if the companies fail to do so, the index can quickly correct itself, moving back down. Another factor which the market will be laser-focused on is the comments from the board of directors on current concerns such as a possible recession and the trade policy. If the comments provide a positive tone and a sense of hope, the risk appetite can improve and support stocks across the board.

NASDAQ - Employment To Play A Key Role!
As recession fears grow and economists raise the likelihood of a downturn to 30–50%, attention shifts to the employment sector. This week will be key for employment as the US will confirm the number of new job vacancies, the unemployment rate and new confirmed employment.

On occasions, stronger employment data can pressure the stock market as it's likely to keep interest rates high. However, under the current circumstances, a positive release from all US news potential may support the NASDAQ. Analysts expect the Unemployment Rate and JOLTS Job Opening figures to be similar to the previous month. However, the NFP Employment Change may dip!

In addition to the employment data and earnings reports, investors will also monitor and analyse the Advanced Quarterly GDP and Core PCE Price Index. Currently, analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. If the index indeed falls to this level, volatility may be limited with a slight bullish bias. However, if the figure falls below 2.6% the NASDAQ potentially can increase further.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis
The NASDAQ is trading above the trendlines on a 2-hour timeframe and above the Volume-Weighted Average for the day. These two factors indicate a bullish bias and bullish signals are likely to strengthen if the price rises above $19,496.31 according to price action. However, if the price falls below $19,357.30, the NASDAQ’s outlook will quickly change.

Traders should note that this week’s price movement will be dependent on the developments from earnings, trade policy and the employment sector.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png


Key Takeaway Points:

1. Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Apple, and Amazon will report earnings within 48 hours, and with a combined 27% index weight, their results could significantly impact the market's direction.
2. Recent stock gains suggest that investor sentiment is improving. However, sustained bullish momentum will depend on whether these companies meet or exceed earnings expectations and provide optimistic guidance.
3. Investors will also closely watch US employment data, GDP figures, and the Core PCE Price Index. A drop in inflation below 2.6% could potentially provide additional support for the NASDAQ.
4. Technically, the NASDAQ maintains a bullish outlook while trading above key trendlines, but a move below $19,357.30 could signal a shift toward a bearish trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th April 2025.

JPY in Focus: BOJ Decision and Trade Tensions Set the Stage

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...108faff55402fb
Markets in Japan reopen after a bank holiday and investors again turn their attention to the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen along with the Euro and Swiss Franc has been the best-performing currency in 2025 so far. However, tariffs and the global trade policy make further rate hikes uncertain ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Japan press conference.

Bank of Japan and the JPY
The primary reason for the bullish performance of the Japanese Yen this year is the BOJ’s rate hikes and the currency's safe-haven nature. Previously economists' projections for the Bank Of Japan was for the regulator to increase interest rates to 1.00% in 2025. However, the uncertainties within the market surrounding the trade policy and a possible recession puts the hawkish path at risk.

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to meet tomorrow during the Asian session. The regulator’s interest rates are likely to remain the same, but the guidance for the upcoming months will be key.

The latest Reuters Tankan survey for April showed improved sentiment within the manufacturing sector. However, consumer confidence remains subdued, largely due to stalled trade negotiations with the US and continued uncertainty in bilateral relations, factors that complicate long-term economic assessments.

Given these conditions, the Bank of Japan is expected to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach. However, it may also signal the possibility of further monetary tightening in the second half of the year. Inflation has remained above the 2.0% target for nearly three years, with recent data suggesting that the trend is set to persist.

In March, the Core Consumer Price Index accelerated, driven by sustained increases in food prices. Meanwhile, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy rose to 2.9%, its highest level in a year, highlighting persistent underlying price pressures.

The US Trade Policy
Currently, there seems to be a clear correlation between the trade policy and the USDJPY, similar to the EURUSD. As tensions escalate, investors reduce their exposure to the US Dollar in favour of the Japanese Yen, Euro and Swiss Franc. However, whether the ‘trade conflict’ will indeed escalate or not cannot be certain.

For the JPY to maintain its bullish path, an escalation in tensions or rate hikes potentially will be necessary. Before President Trump announced the tariffs on April 2nd, the Bank of Japan was planning at least 2 further 0.25% hikes. Investors will closely scrutinize the BoJ’s Governor’s comments regarding future hikes.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest in May according to the Chicago Exchange. A rate cut in May can become a possibility if this week shows a sudden dip in the employment sector. According to the Chicago Exchange, there is a 60% chance of a 0.25% cut on May 7th and a 90% chance for July 30th if a cut is not done in May.

USDJPY - Technical Analysis


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUSDJPY 15-Minute Chart


The USDJPY trades within range-bound trading conditions neither seeing a clear breakout below or above the key levels. The exchange rate also trades very close to the average price of the past 2-weeks. However, this is likely to change as the US releases further employment data today and Friday as well as tomorrow’s Bank of Japan rate decision and press conference.

If the price of the USDJPY declines below the support level at 141.970 sell signals are likely to strengthen as long as the price does not obtain an oversold indication on oscillators. On the other hand, if the USDJPY rises above the resistance level at 142.752, buy signals can strengthen.

Key Takeaway Levels:

1. The Japanese Yen will remain strong in 2025, but trade tensions and recession risks cloud further rate hikes. Previously rate hikes were one of the key factors supporting the Japanese Yen.
2. The Bank of Japan is likely to hold rates tomorrow, with guidance being the key market focus.
3. Inflation in Japan remains above target, with core CPI hitting 2.9%—the highest in a year.
4. USDJPY trades in a tight range; key breakout levels are 141.970 (support) and 142.752 (resistance).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 06th May 2025.

Wall Street Rally Ends | Fed Decision & Trade War Weigh.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...605a75cb365a1f
Wall Street’s Longest Rally Since 2004 Ends Amid Trade Uncertainty and Weak Tech Performance
Wall Street’s nine-day winning streak—the longest since 2004—came to a halt as bullish momentum faded. Major US indices closed lower: the Nasdaq dropped 0.74%, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.24%. Despite easing concerns over tariffs, lingering uncertainty surrounding their long-term impact kept investors on the sidelines.

A stronger-than-expected ISM services report, which included a sharp rise in prices paid, and optimistic remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent, failed to lift sentiment. Apple led the market declines, while media and entertainment stocks—including Disney—fell after a 100% tariff was announced on imported films. Berkshire Hathaway also declined following Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement after six decades as CEO.

Treasury Yields Climb as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade
Treasury yields rose as upbeat economic data tempered expectations for rate cuts. The 2-year yield increased 1.2 basis points to 3.836%, the 3-year note ended 1 bp higher at 3.810%, the 10-year yield advanced 3.7 bps to 4.358%, and the 30-year yield climbed 4.2 bps to 4.830%. This marked the third straight session of yield increases. Despite a strong 3-year auction, bonds remained under pressure.

US Dollar Index Slides Below 100; Greenback Faces Broad Weakness
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 100 mark, closing at 99.809 after touching a high of 100.030 and a low of 99.464. The dollar weakened against most G10 currencies and lost ground to several Asian counterparts as rate differentials failed to offer support.

Nevertheless, stronger US economic data—including accelerated activity among US service providers—helped the dollar edge higher during the session, easing a rapid appreciation in Asian currencies spurred by optimism over potential trade agreements.

Asia Forex Volatility Increases Amid Trade Hopes
The greenback gained 0.2% after the ISM data release. The Taiwanese dollar dropped 0.1% after Monday's historic surge—the strongest since the 1980s. The yen also weakened slightly. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s currency saw its biggest inversion in over two decades as the spread between the spot rate and one-year NDFs hit 3,000 pips, signalling ongoing selling pressure on the US dollar.

Global Market Reaction and Oil Rebound
Equity index futures for the S&P 500 declined 0.4% after the index snapped its longest rally in nearly two decades. European and Asian markets mirrored the US retreat. Cash trading in Treasuries was halted during the Asian session due to a Japanese holiday.

Oil prices rebounded slightly from four-year lows. US crude rose $0.74 to $57.87 per barrel, while Brent crude also gained $0.74 to settle at $60.97. However, WTI crude remained down 1.96% on the day, closing at $56.81 amid concerns about a global supply glut. OPEC+ announced it would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day starting June 1, contributing to a 4% drop in prices on Monday.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...3.original.png


Gold Surges on Chinese Demand; Equities Under Pressure
Gold prices jumped 2.84%, reaching $3333.22 per ounce, driven by increased demand from China. Chinese markets rose after reopening from the Golden Week holiday. The Shanghai Composite added 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4%, Taiwan’s Taiex edged up 0.2%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%.

Tech Stocks Lead US Declines; Fed Decision in Focus
On Wall Street, tech giants dragged the market lower. Apple fell 3.1%, Amazon dropped 1.9%, and Tesla lost 2.4%. Palantir sank more than 9% in after-hours trading following disappointing results, while Ford warned of a $1.5 billion profit hit due to tariffs, causing its stock to fall 2.5%.

Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery lost 1.9% and 2% respectively after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on foreign-made films. Meanwhile, shoemaker Skechers soared 24.3% on news it would be acquired for $9 billion by 3G Capital.

Trade War Escalates as Tariff Policies Create Market Turmoil
Tariff-related volatility continues to dominate market sentiment. Trump’s unpredictable trade measures—often announced or reversed overnight—have undermined the dollar’s traditional role as a safe haven and forced investors to reconsider US exposure. A recent 145% tariff on Chinese imports has triggered a steep decline in shipping activity and logistics.

According to a Caixin survey, China's services sector activity fell to its lowest non-pandemic level, pushing Chinese firms’ overall optimism to its lowest since records began in April 2012, prompting further job cuts.

Outlook: Federal Reserve Decision and Inflation Risks Loom
Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady after cutting them three times in 2024. With inflation hovering just above the 2% target and economic uncertainty lingering, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious stance.

The US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1—the first quarterly decline in three years—raising concerns about tariff driven slowdown. Inflation fears are resurfacing, compounding market anxieties as investors await clearer guidance from the Fed and potential developments on the trade front.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichdi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 08th May 2025.

Markets Rally as Fed Holds Rates, Trump Teases Major Trade Deal With UK.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4b9b70ea9ab0cd
US stocks surged midweek as investors reacted to a flurry of market-moving developments—from Federal Reserve policy decisions and trade deal speculation to AI regulations and geopolitical tensions.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure
Despite mounting pressure from former President Donald Trump to lower interest rates ahead of a potential economic slowdown, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. This decision follows a full percentage point cut made in late 2024.

‘Uncertainty’ remains the name of the game for the FOMC as well as the markets. Though the word was used only once in the statement, Chair Powell used it, or variations of it, many times in his presser, ultimately saying his gut tells him ‘uncertainty’ over the economy's path is extremely elevated.

Powell warned of ongoing risks from global trade tensions and tariffs, stating, ‘If sustained, large increases in tariffs could lead to higher inflation, slower growth, and increased unemployment.’ He acknowledged that the Fed remains vigilant, especially as uncertainties around international trade persist.

The major takeaway is that the Fed is firmly on the sidelines monitoring the many tariff-related unknowns regarding their ‘scale, scope, timing, and persistence’ and their impacts on the economy. The Fed is in no hurry and awaits clear evidence to dictate the appropriate policy response.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s independence on Wednesday, dismissing political influence from the White House. Addressing reporters, Powell emphasised, ‘President Trump doesn’t affect our doing our job at all,’ and reiterated that he has never—and will never—request a meeting with any US president.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...c.original.png


Trump Sparks Market Rally With UK Trade Deal Tease
Equity markets jumped late Wednesday after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had secured a ‘MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY.’ Sources familiar with the matter indicated the United Kingdom is expected to be named as the trade partner during a scheduled White House press conference Thursday morning.

US stock futures surged on the news:

 

1. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.6%
2. S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%
3. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1%
4. Gold is down 0.7%, sliding to $3,336 — edging closer to the crucial 100-hour moving average at $3,330.

Expectations for a broader US-UK economic agreement added to investor optimism, alongside plans for high-level trade talks between the US and China in Switzerland. However, Trump’s statement that tariffs on Chinese imports would remain in place ahead of the negotiations tempered some enthusiasm.

Asian Markets and Geopolitical Concerns
Asian stock markets followed the US momentum on Thursday:

 

1. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.2%
2. Australia’s ASX 200 increased 0.2%
3. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3%
4. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 0.8%
5. Shanghai Composite advanced 0.8%

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, introduced fresh risks. Pakistan has vowed retaliation for missile strikes it says were carried out by India, resulting in over 30 civilian deaths in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab. The situation has drawn international concern over the potential for wider instability in the region.

Nvidia, AMD Surge as AI Export Rules Get Revamped
Tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, also benefited from a regulatory shift. Nvidia (NVDA) closed up 3% following reports that the Trump administration will repeal AI chip export restrictions imposed by the Biden administration.

The US Commerce Department confirmed the policy reversal, describing the previous rules as ‘overly bureaucratic’ and vowing to implement a streamlined framework that ‘unleashes American innovation.’

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also climbed nearly 1.8% on the news, though both chipmakers saw their shares ease slightly in after-hours trading.

The Walt Disney Co. led the earnings-driven rally, soaring 10.8% after beating profit forecasts, raising guidance, and reporting over one million new streaming subscribers.

BoE Expected to Cut Today
The BoE is widely expected to lower the Bank Rate by another 25 bp to 4.25% on May 8. U.K. inflation is still expected to pick up again before retreating, but lower oil prices and a stronger pound will likely prompt the BoE to lower inflation forecasts with the updated Monetary Policy Report, which will pave the way for lower rates. And with growth risks intensifying thanks to US tariff jitters and the impact of the autumn budget, the chances of back-to-back cuts are rising, especially as U.K. rates remain relatively high.

Stagflation risks continue to linger, but BoE head Bailey warned last week that a trade war would hurt the U.K. economy, despite the fact that it is facing lower ‘reciprocal’ tariffs than others. Bailey stressed that ‘it is not just the relationship between the US and the UK, it is the relationship between the US, the U.K. and the rest of the world that matters, because the UK is such an open economy.’ ‘We have to take very seriously the risk to growth’, Bailey warned, adding that ‘fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth.’

Outlook: Economic Growth Meets Policy Uncertainty
Despite global uncertainties, the Fed noted that the US economy continues to grow at a ‘solid pace.’ However, Powell cautioned that persistent tariff threats and rising inflation could put the central bank in a precarious position,risking a scenario of stagflation, where economic stagnation coincides with rising prices.

With trade negotiations looming, rate cuts paused, and geopolitical risks rising, investors will be closely monitoring headlines for clues on the next moves in markets and monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 09th May 2025.

Markets Rally on Renewed Trade Optimism as Trump Softens Stance.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...8e3d92ddf2c4a0
US equities and the dollar climbed to their highest levels in a month, as investors grew increasingly hopeful ahead of a key round of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Talks are scheduled to take place in Switzerland over the weekend, with both sides seeking to reduce tensions and roll back punitive tariffs, currently at 145% on Chinese imports and 125% on US goods in response.

President Trump struck a more conciliatory tone, suggesting tariffs on China could soon be scaled back. ‘I think it’s going to be a substantive and friendly meeting,’ he said while unveiling a new trade deal with the UK. When asked about potential reductions, Trump said, ‘Right now you can’t go any higher. It’s at 145%, so we know it’s coming down.’

The shift in tone marks a turning point after a turbulent April, during which markets were rattled by growing recession fears and escalating trade rhetoric. Since Trump first hinted at easing duties late last month, investors have rotated back into US assets, fueling a strong rebound in risk sentiment.

‘You’re going to want to buy stocks now,’ Trump told reporters on Thursday, citing both the new UK deal and a recently enacted tax measure as reasons for investor optimism.

Equities Push Higher as Risk Appetite Builds

Wall Street posted a second straight day of gains: the Dow rose 0.62%, the S&P 500 added 0.58%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.07%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.02%, nearing record highs, while the Euro Stoxx 600 rose 1.1%. Futures suggest more upside in US and European markets heading into the weekend.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...a.original.png


Asian shares, however, delivered a mixed performance as investors stayed cautious ahead of the trade meeting. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.32%, Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.41%, while South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.15%.

Despite the cautious tone, US futures posted modest gains, and oil prices continued to trend higher.

Fresh trade data from China added to the market narrative. April exports rose 8.1% year-on-year, beating expectations but down from March’s 12.4% pace. However, shipments to the US plunged over 20%, as the impact of steep US tariffs began to take hold.

Dollar Rebounds Sharply as Euro Falters

The US dollar index (DXY) surged above the 100 mark for the first time in nearly a month, gaining more than 1% as capital flowed back into dollar-denominated assets. The euro, which had previously benefited from safe-haven demand, dropped to 1.12—its lowest level since early April, after peaking above 1.15 in recent weeks.

Oil Jumps While Gold Pulls Back

Crude prices rallied to their highest levels in a month. WTI crude climbed over $60 per barrel, up 3.5% since Thursday’s open, and Brent crude broke through $63 per barrel. The gains were fueled by improving risk appetite and expectations of stronger global demand.

Gold, on the other hand, retreated for a second day as investors moved away from safety plays. COMEX futures fell 2.5% on Thursday, while spot gold slid 3.6% across two sessions, touching $3,313 per ounce before rebounding modestly. By Friday, spot prices stood at $3,324.75, up 0.6% on the day and nearly 3% for the week.

While the UK-US trade pact offered improved customs access for American exporters and some tariff relief for UK steel, autos, and aluminium, the deal was more limited in scope than initially promised. Analysts noted that without broader reforms or clearer economic direction, the agreement may do little to ease concerns over slowing global growth.

Bitcoin Surges on Trade Hopes and Coinbase Deal

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) surged past $103,000 on Thursday, marking its highest level since late January. The cryptocurrency rallied alongside equities after Trump signalled a more diplomatic approach to trade, highlighting interest from other nations to forge deals with the US.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...6.original.png


A second catalyst came from Coinbase, which announced a $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a major crypto derivatives platform. The news bolstered sector sentiment and contributed to Bitcoin’s 5% intraday gain, with the digital asset peaking at $102,147 by late afternoon ET.

The recovery follows a sharp decline to $75,000 in early April, triggered by Trump's aggressive tariff declaration on ‘Liberation Day.’ Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded on renewed optimism, with its performance echoing the strong correlation it shares with US tech stocks and broader risk assets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th May 2025.

NASDAQ Gains Nearly 4% as US-China Agree to Lower Tariffs.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...37cd915691b6b0
The NASDAQ soars higher as the US and China finally get on the way and show signs of ‘substantial progress’. Thanks to the positive tone and recent agreements with other partners, the market is clearly leaning toward a risk-on sentiment. The NASDAQ rises to a 2-month high, but can the index rise to previous highs?

US-China Trade Negotiations - What We Know So Far!
Currently, the level of tariffs on Chinese goods is 145%, which, in other words, will bring imports to the US to a halt. In Trump’s recent press conference, he said he believes tariffs should be lowered to 80%. However, most economists believe the US will aim to bring them down to 55-60%.

On Sunday night, trade negotiations in Geneva made ‘substantial progress;’ toward easing tariffs, according to both parties. At that time, the ‘details’ remained scarce, but purely on the positive sentiment, the NASDAQ is quickly reacting. Though this morning the Treasury Secretary and chief negotiator outlined what has been agreed. As part of a 90-day deal, China will lower the tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% and the US on China from 145% to 30%. On the positive side, the tariffs are significantly lower than previous expectations, but a slight negative is that the agreement is solely for 90 days.

Newly imposed tariffs drove the 6-week stock market crash in March–April, during which the NASDAQ dropped by 27%. Economists say that if the US, the EU and China sign a trade agreement, the economy will avoid a recession. At the moment, the price of the NASDAQ and most indices have positively reacted to the news.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png


Before the announcement was made, the NASDAQ was trading 2.10% higher than Friday’s closing price. This was purely due to the positive tone from Sunday. The NASDAQ rose a further 1.50% in the minutes after Scott Bessent’s trade announcement.

NASDAQ - Inflation and Earnings Report
The price movement of the NASDAQ will also depend on the upcoming economic releases and earnings data. In terms of Quarterly Earnings Reports, Applied Materials and Cisco Systems are due to announce their reports on Wednesday and Thursday. The two companies hold a weight of 2.42% and are known to create moderate volatility. Both companies have beaten their earnings expectations over the past 12 months, and both stocks have risen in the past week. However, it's also important to note that Cisco Systems is the most influential of the two.

Nevertheless, traders should note that the Consumer Price Index (inflation) report can overshadow the earnings reports. The consumer inflation is due tomorrow afternoon, and the producer inflation on Thursday. Analysts expect the consumer inflation to remain at 2.4%, which remains relatively close to the Fed’s target of 2.00%. If inflation reads as per expectations, the NASDAQ may potentially react positively. A lower inflation reading will also support the NASDAQ, however, if inflation rises above 2.4%, the reading may trigger inflation concerns related to tariffs.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis
On the 2-Hour timeframe, the NASDAQ continues to honour the trend-line and in the short-term the index shows significant bullish momentum. Currently, the price movement is not showing any indications of downward price movement or divergence patterns. However, the only concern for short-term traders is a retracement due to the price being overbought on most oscillators. Currently, bullish price action holds strong.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. US-China Trade: Positive developments in tariff talks have pushed the NASDAQ to a 2-month high, signaling strong risk-on sentiment.
2. Trade Deal Reached: Both countries agreed to lower tariffs significantly for 90 days, sparking a strong market reaction. The NASDAQ trades almost 4% higher.
3. Inflation and Earnings: Upcoming CPI data and earnings reports from Applied Materials and Cisco may drive further NASDAQ movement.
4. Technical Outlook Remains Bullish: NASDAQ shows strong upward momentum with no immediate bearish signals, though overbought conditions could prompt a short-term pullback.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th May 2025.

US-China Deal Eases Recession Fears, Goldman Raises 2025 Targets.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4ee7e0119c815a
Investors continue to focus on the weekend's trade deal between the US and China which continues to prompt vital trends. The agreement between the two largest economies changes the outlook for almost all assets. Although investors will also start to turn their focus to a pending trade agreement with the EU and this week’s inflation data.

Global Stocks Rebound Aiming To Fully Regain Previous Losses
The global stock market rose significantly after the announcement of a trade deal with China to lower tariffs. You can find the details of the agreement in yesterday’s article. The SNP500 rose 3.26% and has regained 79% of the stock market crash from March-April. Of the most influential components (stocks within the SNP500) 82% rose in value with mainly defensive stocks declining. Defensive stocks include Philip Morris, Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola.

Due to the trade agreement most economies have lowered their projections for a recession in 2025. Previously economists were advising a 30-50% chance of a recession in the second half of the year. However, these projections have now significantly fallen and will do further if the US and EU also sign a trade agreement.

In today’s early hours Goldman Sachs advised it is increasing its target within the stock market. Goldman Sachs strategists, such as David Kostin, now project the SNP500 to potentially rise to $6,500 within the next 12 months. Previously the estimate was between $6,100-6,200. However, analysts also note that the US-China agreement is still temporary and will expire in 89 days.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...c.original.png


In the short-term, investors will be laser focused on the Consumer Price Index (inflation). The CPI is due to be made public at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the US inflation rate to remain at 2.4%. If the rate reads as expected or lower, the stock market potentially can further rise as economists will expect a Federal Reserve rate cut.

GBPUSD - The Pound Struggles Despite Positive Employment Data
The US Dollar has been the best performing currency of the week as investors return to the Greenback. This is largely due to the trade agreement with China and investors correcting previous market pricings. However, the USD is retracing lower on Tuesday giving back some od this week’s gains.

The Great British Pound on the other hand is also supported by the latest employment data from this morning. Although this has not been mirrored on the price. The UK Claimant Count Change fell to +5,200 and the Average Earnings Index read 5.5%. Both announcements were better than previous expectations. However, the GBP still remains the worst performing currency of the day so far after the USD.

Yesterday, Bank of England Monetary Policy Director Megan Green stated that while wage and consumer price growth continues to slow, the figures remain meaningful. However, she also noted a rise in medium-term inflation expectations among the public.

Gold Forms a Retracement Pattern and Obtains A Divergence Indication
The price of Gold rose 0.88% on Tuesday almost fully correcting the bearish price action from Monday, bar the bearish price gap. Currently, the metal is finding support at the $3,201.00 support level from April 12th and May 1st. However, the upward price movement of the day is forming a similar pattern to previous retracements. Therefore, it is vital for Gold traders to note that the price movement could either be a retracement or change in trend.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png

Currently, in terms of fundamentals, the data is indicating a bearish bias, although some positive factors remain. For example, if the Federal Reserve starts to take a more dovish tone due to the trade deal, Gold may continue to be used as a hedge against inflation. However, if countries continue signing trade deals and Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement in Thursday’s negotiations, renewed bearish momentum might hit Gold.

According to the White House, President Trump may possibly attend the negotiations on Thursday between Ukraine and Russia.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. The weekend trade agreement between the US and China has boosted investor confidence and shifted the outlook across global assets, reducing recession fears for 2025.
2. Global stock markets surged, with the S&P 500 up 3.26%. Defensive stocks underperformed, while 82% of components posted gains.
3. Investor attention now turns to today’s US CPI data and the potential US-EU trade agreement. A softer inflation reading could trigger Fed rate cut expectations.
4. The US Dollar leads among currencies but is slightly retracing. The Pound is supported by strong UK jobs data but remains one of the day’s weaker performers.
5. Gold rose 0.88% Tuesday but remains at risk of renewed bearish pressure if global trade deals continue and Ukraine-Russia negotiations succeed.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th May 2025.

Is the Dow Jones Oversold Despite Pharmaceutical Stock Selloff?

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...1aaaf7d7276f0e
All US indices rose in value on Tuesday except for the Dow Jones, which fell 0.64%. Very rarely, almost all global indices increase in value while one of the largest declines. What, then, is driving the Dow Jones’ decline despite the favourable market conditions?

Pharmaceutical Stocks Crash
One of the reasons why the Dow Jones was unable to mirror the bullish tone seen amongst the S&P 500 and NASDAQ was due to the Pharmaceutical sector. Approximately 14% of the weight within the Dow Jones is exposed to Pharmaceutical stocks, which significantly declined on Tuesday. The downward price movement within this sector was due to President Trump confirming that prescription drug prices must fall by almost 60%.

Here is the performance of pharmaceutical stocks in the Dow Jones on Tuesday:

 

1. UnitedHealth Group stocks fell 17.79%
2. Amgen Inc. stocks fell 1.57%
3. Johnson & Johnson stocks fell 3.70%
4. Merck & Co. stocks fell 4.72%

According to President Trump, the cost of prescription drugs in the US is sometimes up to 10 times higher than in other countries. This is despite the drug being ‘produced in the same laboratory’ using the same method and ingredients. Therefore, Trump is proposing that pharmaceutical companies lower the cost in the US and increase the cost elsewhere. However, this is triggering fear amongst investors and is prompting a selloff in the sector.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.jpg
US Drug Prices Vs Other Countries

In addition to this, UnitedHealth Group stocks are under immense pressure due to the above and the company’s CEO has resigned. UnitedHealth Group in this quarter missed their earnings and revenue expectations for the first time since the 2008 banking crisis, and also gave poor guidance for the upcoming quarter.

Defensive Stocks Weaken Due To Improved Sentiment
Another reason for the Dow Jones’ weak price movement is its exposure to defensive stocks. Defensive stocks tend to do well during ‘risk-off’ conditions, while they may underperform in favourable stock market conditions. Defensive stocks within the Dow Jones include the following stocks:

McDonald’s - Stock fell 1.04% on Tuesday

Procter and Gamble - Stock fell 1.35% on Tuesday

Coca-Cola - Stock fell 0.82% on Tuesday

However, not all components are defensive stocks. The Dow Jones also has growth stocks within the index, which include the likes of NVIDIA and Microsoft. NVIDIA stocks were the best-performing stocks on Tuesday, increasing 5.63%. However, NVIDIA stocks only hold a weight of 1.78%.

Dow Jones - Upcoming Performance
The price movement of the Dow Jones is largely moving sideways on Wednesday after the decline on Tuesday. However, investors should note that some of the positive developments driving other indices higher also apply to the Dow Jones, even if its price has not reflected the same movement.

This includes the lower inflation figures from yesterday. The US Consumer Price Index (inflation rate) fell from 2.4% to 2.3%, the lowest since 2021, and core inflation figures remained at 2.8%. The lower inflation rate is likely to allow the Federal Reserve to opt for a cautious rate cut in July, even though this has not yet been signalled. Nonetheless, interest rate cuts and a better economic outlook are likely to positively influence all indices globally. Currently, the Dow Jones is 7.00% away from its all-time high.

Notably, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday reduced their projected likelihood of a US recession by year-end from 45% to 35%, while also raising their economic growth forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngDow Jones - Daily Chart

The price of the Dow Jones is trading within a range during this morning’s Asian Session, but continues to remain above most trend lines. The VWAP is also slightly lower than the current price, giving a bullish bias. If the price increases above the $42,220.00, buy signals are likely to materialise due to the bullish breakout and crossover. However, if the range continues, the average price will be $42,174.18.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. The Dow Jones does not follow the market trend and remains one of the only global indices falling in value. However, some analysts believe the index is partially oversold.
2. Dow Jones fell 0.64% as pharma stocks dropped sharply after Trump called for major drug price cuts.
3. UnitedHealth stock fell nearly 18% after missing earnings, weak guidance, and news of the CEO’s resignation.
4. Defensive names like Coca-Cola and McDonald's declined as risk-on sentiment hurt safe-haven stocks.
5. Lower inflation and reduced recession fears support a positive outlook, but the Dow still trails other indices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th May 2025.

The US Dollar, The Fed And Producer Inflation!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...06c71f3c6bafbd
Lower inflation tends to have a negative impact on the US Dollar, particularly due to political pressure for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, the US Dollar has been increasing in value over the past week. The upward price movement is largely driven by less trade tensions and US economic deals with the Middle East. However, the producer inflation release will be key for the day.

The US Dollar And Upcoming US Data
The performance of the US Dollar is likely to depend on today’s economic data, which will be made public at 12:30 GMT. The US will release the monthly Producer Inflation, weekly unemployment claims and Retail Sales. Ideally, USD-buyers will be hoping for the producer inflation and retail sales to read higher than the current expectations, while the weekly unemployment claims to read lower. Analysts currently expect the producer price index year over year to fall from 2.7% to 2.5%.

A reading above 2.5% could notably support the US Dollar, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s previous guidance. On Wednesday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated that, despite the newly agreed lower tariff levels, inflation is still expected to rise, even if temporarily. He also told journalists that the economy may experience a slowdown as a result of the tariffs. Nonetheless, most economists are lowering the possibility of a recession.

Some economists remain pessimistic, only lowering the possibility of a recession to 45%, while others are lowering it to 30%. Barclays is currently one of the only banks which advise the US is not likely to see a recession in 2025, and the current possibilities are no more than 10%.

The Currency Market
The US Dollar Index is trading lower on Thursday during the Asian Session. However, as the European market opens and the Asian session gets closer to its close, the US Dollar Index improves. If the US Dollar Index increases above 100.75, the price will be above the trend line and will form a breakout. As a result, the index will indicate a possible upward price movement. Currently, the best-performing currencies of the day are the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, while the worst are the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngUSDCAD 1-Hour Chart


Based on the current performance of individual currencies, if the US Dollar were to increase in value, it would do so more easily against the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian Dollar has been the worst-performing currency of 2025 so far after the US Dollar.

The US and the Middle East
Over the past 2 days, President Trump has been undergoing a tour of the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar. So far, the tour has been seen as a success. President Trump secured a comprehensive $600 billion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, encompassing various sectors such as defense, energy, technology, and infrastructure. In Doha, Trump announced a landmark $200 billion agreement between Qatar Airways and Boeing for the purchase of 160 aircraft.

The deal signs are positive for the US and even the US Dollar in the long term. However, these developments will not mean much if the producer inflation and retail sales do not beat expectations. In the short to medium term, this will be key.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Despite falling inflation and rate cut pressure, the USD has strengthened, driven by easing trade tensions and Middle East deals.
2. Producer inflation, unemployment claims, and retail sales will shape short-term USD performance. Stronger data could boost the currency.
3. The US Dollar Index may break higher if it climbs above 100.75. The Canadian Dollar remains the weakest performer of 2025.
4. Trump’s $800B in agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar support long-term USD sentiment, but near-term data remains critical.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th May 2025.

NASDAQ - Producer Inflation Down But Fed Will Not Budge!

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...96ab2e2666056d
The NASDAQ increased in value for a third consecutive day and has now fully recovered all previous losses in 2025. The NASDAQ is now trading 1.70% higher in 2025 and is in the positive zone for the first time since February 27th. The upward price movement continues due to investor confidence rising, particularly after yesterday’s lower producer inflation.

NASDAQ - US Inflation and Economic Data
The NASDAQ during the Asian and European sessions fell lower, witnessing only the second dip of the week. However, the price action quickly changed after the US released its producer inflation and retail sales. The positive developments from the US-China trade negotiations will now start to fade, meaning investors will need further price drivers. As the price fell during the first two sessions of the day, this price driver can be derived from the latest US data.

The US producer inflation (Producer Price Index) read 0.5%, which is 0.7% lower than the previous expectations. The Core Producer Price Index read 0.4%, again significantly lower than what the market was expecting. As a result, the producer inflation over a period of 12 months fell from 2.7% to 2.4%. The lower inflation figures continue to support the stock market as it is known to boost consumer demand while pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

The inflation data from Tuesday (consumer inflation) and yesterday (producer inflation) was one of the main price drivers. However, the NASDAQ also reacted positively to the Retail Sales, which rose above expectations. The weekly US unemployment claims came in at 1.881 million, lower than expected.

However, a negative development came from Applied Materials’ quarterly earnings report, which was that the company’s revenue failed to meet expectations. As a result, the stock fell 5.50% after the market close. Applied Material is the 26th most influential company within the NASDAQ, holding a weight of 0.89%.

Even though the NASDAQ managed to increase after the inflation announcement, investors were concerned that only 51% of the most influential stocks rose in value. The upward price movement was largely due to the strong performance by Cisco Systems (+4.85%), Netflix (+2.34%) and PepsiCo (+2.37).



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.png
NASDAQ Companies Performance

The NASDAQ - The Federal Reserve
One of the main risks for the NASDAQ is connected to the trade policy with Europe, which remains one of the only trade partners to not sign a trade policy. In addition to this, a possible external risk remains the Federal Reserve, which is yet to indicate any concrete rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the agency’s cautious stance. He stated that borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated over the long term due to structural economic shifts and ongoing uncertainty in government policy. We can see here that the Federal Reserve is reluctant to give an indication of any rate cuts despite the lower inflation figures. However, the next inflation announcement in June will be the first release after the US tariffs on China and Europe. This is likely to be the most important inflation reading of 2025.

Currently, based on the Chicago Exchange, there is an 8% chance of a rate cut in June, a 38% chance in July and a 75% chance in September. The report indicates that by the end of 2025, the most likely scenario is the Fed lowering rates to 3.75%–4.00%.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis
For the NASDAQ, technical analysis indicates a neutral signal for the short-term with a bullish bias in the long-term. In the short term, the price is forming a symmetrical price pattern, which indicates range-bound trading conditions. The price is also at a key psychological level as the index rises to the previous highs. Due to this, investors are now contemplating what the asset’s intrinsic value is.

However, in the long term the price is obtaining bullish signals as the price trades above the trend-lines, moving averages and above the 50.00 level on the RSI.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis....width-800.pngNASDAQ 15-Minute Chart


Key Takeaway Points:

1. The NASDAQ has risen for three straight days, now up 1.70% YTD and in positive territory for the first time since February.
2. Lower-than-expected producer and consumer inflation boosted investor sentiment, reinforcing hopes for rate cuts and supporting retail sales growth.
3. Despite index gains, only 51% of the top NASDAQ stocks rose. Applied Materials missed earnings, dropping 5.5%, while Cisco, Netflix, and PepsiCo outperformed.
4. Powell signalled no immediate rate cuts despite cooling inflation. Markets expect a 75% chance of a cut by September, with rates likely to fall to 3.75%–4.00% by year-end.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th May 2025.

Global Markets Slide After US Credit Rating Downgrade, Weak Chinese Data Add to Investor Jitters.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...cd6b4c37a4131b
Asian markets fell today while US futures and the dollar weakened, as global investors digested Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. The move came in response to the US government's persistent struggle to control rising debt, currently sitting at $36 trillion.

US Credit Rating Downgrade Sends Ripples Through Global Markets
Moody’s cut the US sovereign credit score from its long-held AAA rating to Aa1 — the first downgrade since 1917. The rating agency cited worsening fiscal conditions, a widening deficit, and increasing concerns over the government's capacity to manage its debt obligations. It follows earlier warnings in 2023 and echoes similar concerns raised by Fitch and S&P in previous years.

The downgrade hit global sentiment hard. The futures for the S&P 500 slid 0.9%, while those for the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6%. The US dollar weakened, dipping to 145.14 yen from 145.65 yen, while the euro remained flat at $1.1183.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...f.original.png


Asian Markets Under Pressure Amid Weak China Data
Chinese equities slipped after fresh data revealed slower-than-expected economic growth. April retail sales in China rose just 5.1% year-on-year, missing forecasts, while industrial output growth eased to 6.1% from 7.7% in March. The slowdown raises concerns over excess inventories and reduced domestic demand, particularly in the wake of the ongoing US-China trade tensions.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.7% to 23,184.74, and Shanghai’s Composite Index edged down 0.2% to 3,361.72. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.4%, Korea’s Kospi lost 1%, and Taiwan’s Taiex shed 0.8%. Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.1%.

Adding to the pessimism, China’s property market showed no signs of recovery, with new home prices unchanged in April, marking nearly two years of stagnant growth despite government support efforts.

Trade War Uncertainty Looms Over Markets
Tensions between the US and its trading partners continue to add volatility. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that President Donald Trump would impose tariffs on countries not negotiating in ‘good faith.’ Although Bessent did not clarify what qualifies as ‘good faith,’ he stated that letters outlining tariff rates would be sent to non-compliant nations.

Trump has already shifted tariff rates multiple times this year. In April, he reduced most tariffs to 10% for 90 days to encourage negotiations, while tariffs on Chinese imports were adjusted to 30%.

Despite last week’s 90-day standstill agreement between the US and China, investor sentiment remains fragile amid concerns over Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.

Wall Street Rallies but Risks Remain
Despite the looming economic headwinds, Wall Street closed higher last week. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 5,958.38, bringing it within 3% of its February all-time high. The Dow climbed 0.8% to 42,654.74, while the Nasdaq rose 0.5% to 19,211.10. Optimism over potential tariff rollbacks helped fuel the rally, but fears of a recession and stubborn inflation still weigh heavily.

Moody’s downgrade also underscores long-term structural challenges for the US economy, as successive administrations have failed to rein in government spending.

Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations Worsen
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index showed another decline in May, though the pace of deterioration slowed. More troubling, Americans now expect inflation to reach 7.3% over the next year, up from 6.5% the month before, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts.

Hope remains that softer inflation readings and slowing economic activity could eventually prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy,a key support for markets facing trade shocks and fiscal uncertainty.

Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand
Gold prices edged higher as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid mounting US fiscal concerns. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,218.30 an ounce in Singapore after briefly surging as much as 1.4% earlier in the session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.2%.

Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating supported gold’s appeal. The precious metal, which hit record highs above $3,500 an ounce last month, remains up over 20% this year despite recent pullbacks driven by easing geopolitical tensions.





https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...e.original.png


Oil Prices Dip on Weak Data and Credit Worries
Oil prices fell Monday following the US credit rating downgrade and underwhelming Chinese economic data. Brent crude slipped 0.5% to $65.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.4% to $62.23. The more actively traded July WTI contract also fell 0.5% to $61.66.

While the recent truce between the US and China initially lifted crude prices, concerns over the durability of the agreement and China’s faltering recovery have kept investors cautious.

Corporate Highlights: Mergers and Market Moves
In corporate news, Charter Communications rose 1.8% after announcing a merger with Cox Communications. The combined entity will retain the Cox name and be headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Nvidia-backed CoreWeave jumped 22.1% after the tech giant increased its stake in the AI cloud computing firm from just under 6% to 7%.

Meanwhile, US-listed shares of Novo Nordisk fell 2.7% after the company announced CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down amid recent market challenges, despite the popularity of its Wegovy weight-loss drug.

Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead
With the US credit rating downgrade, wavering trade relationships, and mixed economic signals from China, financial markets are likely to remain volatile. While some positive inflation data could support a dovish Fed pivot later in the year, uncertainty over global trade policies and fiscal stability will continue to dominate investor sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st May 2025.

Dollar Weakens Ahead of G-7 as Traders Watch for US Policy Shifts.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...45d7ad884c0e90
The US dollar slipped to its lowest level in two weeks on Wednesday, as market participants turned their attention to the upcoming Group-of-Seven summit for clues on whether the Trump administration is favouring a weaker greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a third straight session, losing 0.4% on the day.

Speculation has grown after Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, expressed his intent to hold currency discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the G-7 meeting. South Korean officials have already confirmed that exchange rates were addressed during recent bilateral talks with the US, fueling expectations of a coordinated policy shift.

Fiscal concerns are adding to the dollar’s woes. Lawmakers in Washington are working on a proposed tax cut plan that aims to keep the revenue impact within $4.5 trillion over a decade, currently estimated at $3.8 trillion. This comes on the heels of a credit downgrade by Moody’s, which cited persistent and unaddressed budget deficits as a key reason for lowering the US government's credit rating.

‘The dollar is declining in tandem with rising long-term US yields, as investors grow uneasy about financing America's twin deficits,’ said Moh Siong Sim, FX strategist at Bank of Singapore. ‘We’re likely witnessing the early stages of a broader reallocation away from overweight US positions by global investors.’



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...7.original.png


Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil, Equities Mixed in Asia

Oil prices spiked following a CNN report that suggested Israel may be preparing for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.21 to $63.24 per barrel, while Brent crude added $1.20 to reach $66.58. The report, citing unnamed intelligence sources, said no final decision had been made by Israeli leaders, but any strike could derail ongoing nuclear negotiations and heighten instability in the Middle East—a region responsible for roughly a third of global oil supply.

Asian equity markets were mixed. The Hang Seng gained 0.4%, Shanghai’s Composite edged up 0.2%, and Australia’s ASX 200 advanced 0.8%. South Korea’s Kospi rose by the same margin, and Taiwan’s Taiex climbed 0.6%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225, however, dipped 0.1% amid ongoing trade tensions with the US

Japan reported weaker trade data, with April exports to the US falling nearly 2% year-on-year. Total global export growth slowed to 2% from 4% in March, while imports from the US plunged over 11%. The country recorded a trade deficit of 115.8 billion yen ($804 million), and the yen's recent strength has further dampened export competitiveness. Vehicle exports, a core component of Japan’s trade, dropped nearly 6%.

The Japanese government continues to urge Washington to remove the tariffs introduced under President Trump, particularly the 25% levy on autos and duties on steel and aluminium. Economic Revitalisation Minister Ryosei Akazawa is expected to meet with US officials this weekend in a third round of negotiations.

Adding to domestic political pressures, Agriculture Minister Taku Eto resigned following controversial remarks about receiving free rice, triggering public backlash amid rising staple food prices.

Wall Street Dips as Travel Stocks Lag; Quantum Firm Soars

US stocks ended lower on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 5,940.46, its first decline in seven sessions. The Dow dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. Travel-related shares dragged the market lower, with Norwegian Cruise Line falling 3.9%, United Airlines off 2.9%, and Airbnb down 3.3%. Viking Holdings, despite better-than-expected earnings, slumped 5%.

Home Depot shares slid 0.6% after quarterly earnings missed estimates, though revenue came in ahead. The company maintained its full-year guidance, contrasting with other corporations that have cited tariff uncertainty and economic headwinds as reasons to withhold forecasts.

In contrast, D-Wave Quantum surged nearly 26% after launching a next-generation quantum computing platform, claiming it can tackle problems traditional computers cannot handle.

Investors are watching for earnings from Lowe’s and Target today.

Bonds and Currency Moves

Treasury yields were little changed. The 10-year yield inched up to 4.47%, while the 2-year yield dipped slightly to 3.96%, reflecting expectations around future Federal Reserve policy. The dollar softened, trading at 144.10 yen from 144.51, while the euro climbed to $1.1307.

UK & Canadian Inflation Reports Raise Stakes for June Rate Decision

This morning UK inflation jumped to 3.5% y/y in the headline rate, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month, with prices rising a whopping 1.2% m/m. The later timing of Easter and the start of the new fiscal year clearly impacted the higher-than-expected number. Core inflation accelerated to 3.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y, with services price inflation hitting 5.4% y/y, up 0.7% points over the month. The wider CPIH rate accelerated to 4.1% y/y from 3.4% y/y. The higher-than-expected number backs warnings from Chief Economist Pill that inflation risks have not disappeared and is prompting traders to trim rate cut bets.



https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...c.original.png


Also, Canada’s April inflation data delivered a mixed picture. Headline CPI slowed to 1.7% year-over-year, the weakest since September, due to lower energy prices and the carbon tax repeal. However, core inflation surprised to the upside: the median rate climbed to 3.2% (from 2.9%), the trim rose to 3.1%, and the average core measure accelerated to 3.15%. The three-month moving average of core inflation jumped to 3.4% from 2.9%.

These stronger core figures complicate the Bank of Canada’s upcoming rate decision on June 4. The central bank held rates steady at its April 16 meeting but may now face pressure to act amid persistent underlying inflation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd May 2025.

Bitcoin Surges Above $111K for the First Time as Institutional Demand and Regulatory Optimism Fuel Rally.


https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...f2c792afb14503
Crypto markets outperform as equities stumble under bond market pressure and rising US debt concerns.
Bitcoin hit a new record high on Thursday, crossing the $111,000 threshold for the first time amid growing institutional interest and hopes for improved regulatory clarity in the US. The digital asset rose as much as 3.3% to reach $111,878, according to Bloomberg. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also saw notable gains, climbing up to 5.5% intraday.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...4.original.png

Sentiment was lifted by progress in the US Senate on a key stablecoin bill, which investors interpret as a sign of potential pro-crypto regulation under President Donald Trump. This comes alongside mounting demand from major institutional players, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which now holds over $50 billion in Bitcoin.
There’s no shortage of demand for BTC from SPAC and PIPE deals, which is manifesting in the premium on Coinbase spot prices.
Several newly formed or obscure public companies are driving fresh demand, funding their Bitcoin purchases through convertible debt, preferred equity, and other instruments. One example is Twenty One Capital Inc., a new firm modelled after Strategy and launched by an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald LP in partnership with Tether Holdings SA and SoftBank Group. Meanwhile, a merger between a subsidiary of Strive Enterprises Inc., co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, and Nasdaq-listed Asset Entities Inc. will create a Bitcoin treasury company.
‘This rally is not just momentum-driven’, said Julia Zhou, COO of Caladan, a crypto market maker. ‘It’s supported by tangible, sustained demand and supply dislocations’
Bitcoin’s dominance is growing, as alternative cryptocurrencies struggle. An index tracking smaller altcoins has declined about 40% in 2025, while Bitcoin is up 17% year-to-date.
In the ETF space, 12 US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have attracted around $4.2 billion in inflows this month. On Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, open interest is heavily concentrated around June 27 expiry calls at $110,000, $120,000, and even $300,000.
The latest breakout confirms the broader bullish trend. The sharp pullback from January’s highs to below $75,000 in April now looks like a correction within a bull market. A firm break above $110,000 could set the stage for a move toward $125,000.
The latest rally coincides with a private dinner on Thursday between Trump and top holders of his memecoin at his golf club near Washington. Ethics experts warn that such events raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest and access through financial contributions. However, analysts say the meeting has had minimal direct market impact.
Asian Markets Retreat on Bond Market Worries and US Debt Concerns
Asian equity markets fell sharply on Thursday as pressure from rising US Treasury yields and concerns over surging American debt rattled investor confidence.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.0% to 36,944.55, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.9% to 23,615.21. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite edged 0.1% lower to 3,383.10. Australia’s ASX 200 slid 0.5% to 8,342.80, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.1% to settle at 2,595.69.
The US still has the biggest markets and deepest liquidity, but not even dollar inertia can outrun compound interest and structural deficits forever. The weaker US dollar also weighed on regional markets. A depreciating dollar undermines the value of Asian nations’ dollar-denominated assets and negatively impacts exporters like Japan’s automakers, whose overseas profits diminish when converted to local currency.
In currency markets, the greenback slipped to 143.27 Japanese yen from 143.68 yen. The euro strengthened slightly to $1.1335 from $1.1330. A year ago, the dollar was trading near 150 yen.
Investors are also increasingly wary of President Trump’s policy decisions, particularly on tariffs that affect Asian firms and ongoing negotiations in Congress over a major funding bill.
Wall Street Flat Ahead of Tax Vote
US stock futures were little changed early Thursday as markets awaited the outcome of a vote on President Trump’s proposed tax reform bill. Dow futures dipped 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures traded flat.
Despite internal GOP disagreements, House Speaker Mike Johnson said a floor vote could happen as early as Thursday night. The latest version of the bill includes more generous deductions for state and local taxes (SALT), aimed at appeasing Republican holdouts.
However, unresolved issues surrounding Medicaid funding and green energy tax credits have investors concerned. Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit outlook, citing the bill’s potentially massive deficit implications as a contributing factor.
Markets reacted on Wednesday with broad declines and a jump in bond yields. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly breached 5%, its highest in months, amid renewed concerns over the US’s growing debt burden.
Beyond politics, investors on Thursday will also digest key economic data, including weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, and the ISM’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd May 2025.

Dollar Drops as Fiscal Concerns Shake Markets, Euro and Yen Rebound.

https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis...605a75cb365a1f
The US dollar softened on Friday, poised for its first weekly decline in five weeks against both the euro and the yen. The shift comes as mounting concerns over the US's deteriorating fiscal position have led investors to seek out safer assets.

Following Moody’s recent downgrade of US debt, market attention turned sharply toward America’s staggering $36 trillion debt load. The renewed focus has been amplified by President Donald Trump’s proposed tax legislation, which is expected to significantly expand the deficit if passed.

Labelled by Trump as a ‘big, beautiful bill,’ the tax package narrowly cleared the Republican-majority House of Representatives. It now heads to the Senate, where extended debate is expected—further contributing to near-term investor caution.

The euro climbed 0.36% to $1.132 on Friday, on track to close the week with a 1.2% gain after four weeks of losses. Earlier dollar strength had been supported by a pause in tariff escalations, but sentiment has since shifted. Year-to-date, the euro has appreciated 9% amid ongoing turbulence sparked by tariff policy and a retreat from the dollar.

‘This week, the focus moved away from trade tensions to fiscal stability. That change has rattled markets,’ said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. ‘The U.S. fiscal path now looks so concerning that investors are questioning its sustainability.’

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major peers, was down 0.3% at 99.614 on Friday and is set for a 1.35% weekly loss. This drop comes despite a selloff in U.S. Treasuries, with 30-year yields hovering above 5% in Asian trading, close to their October 2023 peak of 5.179%—levels not seen since 2007.

The rising yields have failed to support the dollar, as a wave of risk aversion fuels what some analysts have dubbed a “Sell America” movement, echoing trends seen last month.

‘What’s striking is how markets are reacting to the surge in long-term U.S. yields,’ said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. ‘These yields aren’t being driven by optimism about growth, but by deepening fears of fiscal irresponsibility and ballooning interest costs.’

He added that the combination of rising inflation expectations and waning foreign interest in U.S. debt has led to a notable spike in the term premium.

The yen firmed to 143.47 per dollar, set for a 1.5% weekly rise after Japanese core inflation in April surged at its fastest pace in over two years. This could prompt the Bank of Japan to consider raising interest rates before year-end.

Despite a fragile economy burdened by tariffs, super-long Japanese bonds reached record highs this week, though prices steadied on Friday.

The Swiss franc gained slightly to 0.8264 per dollar and is up 1.2% this week, snapping a two-week losing streak.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.39% to $0.6434 after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate to a two-year low of 3.85%, citing weaker global prospects and easing domestic inflation.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% to $0.5916, on track for a 0.6% weekly increase.

Asian Equities Rebound as Yields Retreat

Asian stocks advanced early Friday as U.S. Treasury yields retreated after a volatile week driven by debt-related fears. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.52%, while the more Fed-sensitive two-year yield dropped to 3.98%.

Oil prices declined amid speculation that OPEC+ may raise production at its next meeting. U.S. crude fell 51 cents to $60.69 per barrel, while Brent slid to $63.93.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% to 37,289.60 after the government reported April core inflation at 3.5%, its highest since early 2023. Analysts now expect the BOJ to cautiously consider tightening policy.

Still, ING’s Min Joo Kang noted that U.S. tariff pressures could limit the BOJ’s room to maneuver, especially with Japan’s export sector under threat.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 23,627.99, Shanghai’s Composite Index gained 1% to 3,382.12, Seoul’s Kospi edged up 0.2% to 2,597.49, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 8,379.10.

Wall Street Mixed as Policy Fears Linger

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down slightly to 5,842.01. The Dow ticked lower by 1.35 points to 41,859.09, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3% to 18,925.73, led by tech gains. Alphabet climbed 1.4% and Nvidia added 0.8%.

Treasury markets steadied following the House’s passage of a tax bill expected to deepen the federal deficit. The package would extend $4.5 trillion in tax breaks and introduce new ones, while accelerating the phase-out of clean energy credits—sending solar stocks tumbling. Sunrun lost 37.1%, Enphase dropped 19.6%, and First Solar slid 4.3%.

Healthcare stocks also fell after a federal agency announced broader audits of Medicare Advantage plans. UnitedHealth lost 2.1% and Humana plunged 7.6%.

In the latest economic data, jobless claims edged slightly lower, signalling continued labour market resilience. Still, businesses remain cautious amid an ongoing trade war.

A strong S&P Global report on U.S. manufacturing and services showed a rebound in May, though it also highlighted supply chain disruptions and cost pressures tied to looming tariffs.

The jump in prices for goods and services marked the sharpest since August 2022.

Currencies Update

In early Friday trade, the dollar eased to 143.45 yen from 144.01. The euro rose to $1.1319 from $1.1279, reflecting continued pressure on the greenback.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.