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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - A Real Trading Record

  • #521
  • Mar 4, 2025 1:54am Mar 4, 2025 1:54am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} My apologies, my comments were NOT meant to be sarcastic. I love your teachings, have been subscribed to both of your threads for a long time and have commented in both before. My comment about patience was meant to be humorous and as a way of comparison to many traders, especially 'scalpers', spending MANY hours in front of their screen, often giving positive returns away. Hence my comment on stopping trading after winning the first trade of the day, which I have seen you do at least some time. I was just wondering if that was on purpose,...
Hi ikdenk,
That is one of the most gracious posts I think I have ever seen.
Thank you for taking the trouble to explain rather than react, and please accept my unreserved apologies for negatively misinterpreting your comments.

To answer your query about my having a 'one and done' attitude towards my trading sessions, yes indeed, I usually stop if the first trade is a winner. My financial ambition is just to get one net winning trade a week. Over a year that is 50 net wins, and at my 2% per trade account risk that is a 100% return on the account. So a winner on the day is a big step in such ambitions and I will stop at that point.

If I am to be completely truthful, however, I also tend to stop at that point as I find I get too defensive thereafter, wanting to protect that realised profit rather than trading naturally. That is a bad mistake, I think, so I just stop. You should treat each trade as a completely independent event but, human emotions being what they are, I find that difficult at least intra day.

Of course, I have many days where I start with a loser (I think my record is 11 days in a row!). Then I will trade on to try to get to a scratch on the day and come back tomorrow. If I really find I don't feel in tune with the market I'll just stop with the loss. If I end up with multiple net losers on the day, all I try for is to keep that net down number as small as possible. You want at all costs to avoid the massive blowout day, whether by taking a huge loss on an individual trade (that is faulty risk control and is a 100% no-no) or by a large number of individual losers. Losses and losing days are inevitable, just try to keep them small so the recovery is entirely and easily achievable in the days ahead.
  • #522
  • Mar 4, 2025 2:24am Mar 4, 2025 2:24am
Quoting medici
Oldtraderman, let me join those who express appreciation for the unique experience and insight shared on this thread. While I concur with the many appreciative things said by others, I 'd like to ask a question: Many less experienced traders seem to be looking for the system/strategy that will foolproof their trading endeavours. At last, they seem to think, they will be able to trade mechanically and simply follow rules while remaining consistently profitable forever. My views on that is that successful trading is about contextual understanding...
Hi all,
Before I start trading this morning, I would like briefly to return to Medici's above question from post #515 that on refelection I do not think I really gave quite a full answer to first time, especially with respect to mechanical system trading.

I do not trade a mechanical system essentially because I find them too inflexible for the job in hand. The market is seemingly different every day though many price patterns and structures clearly repeat over and over through time. Same dog, different fleas, springs to mind! The problem is that they seldom exactly repeat and how they repeat changes with the market context that day. A mechanical system is, by definition, rigid rule based and I don't think can really cover all the possibilities without having so many rules & caveats that it is rendered rather useless. I have tried many times to develop mechanical systems as they have the huge advantage of taking emotions largely out of trading but, paradoxically, I think you need the emotions (or subjectivity at least) to interpret all the myriad of subtle differences the market presents for essentially the same pattern that I am looking to trade. Maybe AI will help, I don't know but I'm probably too old a dog (hopefully not with fleas though) to learn a new trick like that now.

Mechanical systems can work but you have to accept they are often not perfectly in step with the market due to their inherent rigidity, so you will have periods of perhaps large and prolonged drawdown due to this, e.g. a mechanical big trend following system in a churning market. I like to avoid significant drawdown at the acceptable cost (to me) of leaving a lot on the table. My psyche is more like a little sparrow nipping in and out quickly to pick up easy and consistent scraps, rather than a big crocodile who feasts large once every few weeks and stays without eating the rest of the time. A terrible analogy, I know, but I hope you get the idea, I can't immediately think of anything better!

Hope that helps.
  • #523
  • Edited 4:11am Mar 4, 2025 4:00am | Edited 4:11am
Hi all,
All the talk in the early posts this morning about losing trades was bound to hit home and, inevitably, today began with a loser but happily later recovered; a good example of how your setup can't work every time:

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The market opens above 22900 but immediately collapses to the 740 area where it looks to have double tested the low before heading back up. The double test and strength of the bounce to 860 interests me in a long - much the same as yesterday's successful chart look. A retracement that takes a double look at the big figure 800
level looks to fail and I am happy to try a long at 17 with a wider 20pt stop again in these volatile conditions. The stop is below the 00 level and the 1R target of 37 is well below the prior local high. So looks fine but is immediately blown away by the collapse in the very next bar and I am stopped for a -1R loss in no more than a minute! It looked a good entry to me, they can't all work. Please note the value of having and respecting the stop loss at 97 - the market fell directly to 13 before a bounce. That would be a -5R loss, you can't be taking hits like that and hoping to be profitable over time.

My incorrect market view causes me to stop and watch for a while, to get in step with the market if possible. We see the market enter a churning phase with several highs above 760. The inability of the market to hold past this mark - I count five attempts - eventually tempts me into a short at 55 on the fifth reversal. This happily wins me 1R at 35 and I call it a scratch halt for the day. Nothing gained but at least nothing lost, there will be chances for profit next time.

I should mention - apologies that I forgot to yesterday - that when adjusting the stop to 20pts rather than my usual 14pts, I also reduce the trade size by the same factor, i.e. by about a third. This means 20pts gained or lost at the smaller size has the same cash value as 14pts gained or lost at my usual size. I want to keep the risk exposure at 2% of the account per trade so trade size has to adjust in parallel with stop size. It is an important part of risk control.
  • #524
  • Mar 4, 2025 6:07am Mar 4, 2025 6:07am
great write up. thanks for sharing!
regards
goma
  • #525
  • Mar 4, 2025 12:28pm Mar 4, 2025 12:28pm
Quoting Oldtraderman
{quote} Hi ikdenk, That is one of the most gracious posts I think I have ever seen. Thank you for taking the trouble to explain rather than react, and please accept my unreserved apologies for negatively misinterpreting your comments. To answer your query about my having a 'one and done' attitude towards my trading sessions, yes indeed, I usually stop if the first trade is a winner. My financial ambition is just to get one net winning trade a week. Over a year that is 50 net wins, and at my 2% per trade account risk that is a 100% return on the...
I am happy we have cleared up our misunderstanding.

Thanks for confirming that you stop trading after an initial win. I think that is one of the keys to profitable trading. Totally against the br0kers' interest of course, they want you to keep trading, hence always advertising 'opportunities' to trade, ever increasing instruments and now 24/7 Bitcoin trading (just think of the spread they are raking in there).
  • #526
  • Edited 6:08am Mar 8, 2025 1:22am | Edited 6:08am
Quoting Oldtraderman
Before I start trading this morning, I would like briefly to return to Medici's above question from post #515
Thank you, it's a topic worth returning to as it's at the core of being able to trade with consistent profitability. So I thought I should add a few words on that. My simple view on the topic is that

Consistent profits require consistent behaviour, but such consistent behaviour doesn't come from mechanically and unemotionally following mechanical rules.

Why? You explain that well:

Quote
The market is seemingly different every day though many price patterns and structures clearly repeat over and over through time. Same dog, different fleas, springs to mind! The problem is that they seldom exactly repeat and how they repeat changes with the market context that day. A mechanical system is, by definition, rigid rule based and I don't think can really cover all the possibilities without having so many rules & caveats that it is rendered rather useless.

Which is why

Discretion, to a large part based on feelings and intuition, is required in order to be able to behave consistently.

Again you put that very well:

Quote
I think you need the emotions (or subjectivity at least) to interpret all the myriad of subtle differences the market presents for essentially the same pattern that I am looking to trade.

Yet

A system or strategy is required as a lens through which to understand the market, and to plan one's actions.

This in order to balance emotion and intuition with reason and a planned approach. And such a system can be based on a naked chart or indicators, but a deeply researched and forward tested system it has to be.

Still one needs in every moment to be watchful as to whether one is in sync with the market or not. And you put it so well in a recent post:

Quote
My incorrect market view causes me to stop and watch for a while, to get in step with the market if possible.

I have also dabbled in system development, and even been able to construct some really worthwhile ones. And I have to confess that all futures systems have been based on non-standard (i.e. not time based) chart types, so either tick charts or range bars. I've traded options using naked charts, but that's a different game than directional trading. And I have difficulties understanding why almost all the system creation efforts here on FF focus on time based charts and oscillators. Maybe someone could explain that.

Just to make the point, I thought I should share a chart of a 'system' I put together yesterday after being done for the day. It's based on Renko bars and trades Nasdaq e-mini futures. The snap below is of the US cash session yesterday and the time is Paris time. Looking at it I wonder - why make things more difficult than this?
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  • #527
  • Mar 10, 2025 4:02am Mar 10, 2025 4:02am
Hi all,
Today's trading is an interesting comparison between caution and missed opportunity, all rather depending on your psyche:

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Market opens at 8am and immediately collapses. There are a couple of failed bounce short opportunities around 23100 and 23050 on the way down but I am a bit too slow and cautious for them in this volatile opening. We then see a decent bounce from the low at 22970 up to 23050. I am not convinced the down move is yet over, so when price stalls around the 50 level for three successive bars then tries to push to 60 but fails I am happy to try a short at 50, with a wider 20pt stop and target again today. I watch the market immediately push up again to 68, just 2pts short of my stop at 70. It then reverses sharply and I am able to cut at 46 for just 4pts, 0.2R. Naturally, the market keeps then reversing back to test the old lows at 970, and subsequently moves even lower.

Had I held the trade there was a big profit available, it's 4R to the 970 low for instance. But I cut essentially for a scratch because I was so nearly stopped out for a 1R loss. Over cautious? Very possibly but it's a rule of mine not to try to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. If the market proves you wrong - or at least your timing is out - then don't sit and insist your trade will be a winner, just cut it for a scratch or small loss if you are given the chance. I was here and I took it gratefully. It was the wrong move here, my original analysis was ultimately correct, but I have found that in such cases the market move is usually telling you your analysis was wrong and so my mentality changes from looking for a winner to trying to mitigate a loser.

It suits my cautious trading personality but it may not suit yours, many would have held on and be smiling now. I really don't mind leaving the profit on the table, it's the price I'm happy to pay for caution, it would really upset other traders with a different psyche to mine. You have to know what you are and structure your trading accordingly if you want to minimise internal emotional stress - and there is a lot of that in this game!
  • #528
  • Edited 4:25am Mar 11, 2025 4:13am | Edited 4:25am
Hi all,
Quick trading day today but, despite being all over in under 50 minutes from the open, a reasonable illustration of patience and trade set up:

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Market opens at 8am with some wild straight line moves that, despite me wanting to get involved, offer no obvious entry set up that I am looking for. I watch a few mental winners pass me by but I really want to stick to my method so I do my best to grin and bear it. Eventually, the market settles into a consolidation pattern in the 790-740 area and I note two attempts to get past 80, which also happens to be the prior high area since the open. All this resistance encourages me to look for a short, and on the third failure to do so in the consolidation pattern I am happy to try a short at 75. The stop is a wider 20pts again to allow for the higher volatility, putting the stop loss above prior highs whilst the 1R target at 55 is well inside the range, all good. Fortunately, it works quickly and I am happy to take my 1R at 55 though braver traders could have held on for a test of the range lows at 40.

This was a slightly risky trade as a push up to test the big figure 800 was always on the cards (it did so, bouncing off 40 to 840 shortly afterwards) but you generally have to take a speculative view at some point, the market is rarely that obvious in wanting to give you free money! If it had lost, then que sera sera, and console yourself that you were willing to take the chance and you at least followed your method diligently. They can't all win, that is why you bet small, practise sound risk control, and try to adopt a stoic type attitude to it all.
  • #529
  • Mar 17, 2025 4:13am Mar 17, 2025 4:13am
Hi all,
Quick early trading again today, the volatility in markets at the moment is presenting lots of opportunity. The two trades this morning are a decent lesson, first in frustration and then for mental flexibility:

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Market opens at 8am, has a look below 22950 before a quick run to edge over big figure 22300 before reversing sharply back to 22940. This is typical market maker action trying to trigger buy stops at the round number 300 where they know orders sit, before reversing sharply to take easy money off the hopeful buyers at 300. Naughty perhaps, but all part of the game and you have to be wary.

Anyway, we sit and watch the market bounce off 40 to the 70 level before turning back down again. This looks like a failed bounce rollover that is my standard short entry setup, with a test and possible break of the 40 low to come. I get a poor fill at 55 giving a target of 41 (back to my usual 14pts stop today, volatility is a bit less than last week) just above the lows. I'd have liked a entry nearer 60 and so a target higher off the lows, and this proves to be crucial this time as the market gets me to 42, +13pts before reversing back up and causing me to scratch at 55. You can imagine I am a little frustrated - within 1pt of my target and a better fill on the entry would have seen me home with a quick +1R in my pocket. Still, it is what it is, so no hoping or cursing, take the scratch at 55. This proves wise as the market duly runs all the way back up to challenge the 300 level again. The scratch is annoying, to not tighten the stop to breakeven after +13pts and end up with a 1R loss would be reprehensible in the circumstances.

So, a scratch and a deep breath is taken as we continue to watch. The market makes a straight line run up to 300 where it unsurprisingly takes a slight pause. The strength of the bounce and run off the 940 lows convinces me the market wants to have a look at the prior high just under 320 so now I am happy to switch direction and try a long at exactly 00 as the pause reverses, stop 86 and target 14, still under the prior high. This time it works and I quickly get my +1R at 14; braver traders could have held on for more as the market ran up to above 40.

So, morals of the story today are to accept what the market does to you and keep to your method and disciplines, however frustrating it may be; and follow the market, do not predict it with a fixed view. I could have insisted the market was churning and wanted to go lower. This would have led me to a short rather a long around the 00 level and I would be nursing a loser. The market is always right, you are always insignificant in your views, so follow the market rather than your rigid beliefs!
  • #530
  • Mar 24, 2025 4:16am Mar 24, 2025 4:16am
Hi all,
An apparently simple trade this morning, but one that contains useful messages of entry patience and exit (over)caution:

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Market opens at 8am with a run up to 23135 before reversing sharply into a downtrend. There is a clear failed bounce entry just before 8.30 at around the 23090 level but I pass on this one as there is important German PMI numbers at 8.30 and I do not want to be in the market until that is over and digested - the potential volatility around such numbers can too easily overwhelm my stop loss. No matter how committed a technical trader you may be (I trade 100% technically), don't let anyone tell you fundamentals don't matter; it is fundamentals that determine the market level at the end of the day, not squiggles on a chart.

So I sit and watch the 8.30 release not doing a lot to the market. There then forms a little consolidation in the 20-60 area but it is jumping up and down sharply so I don't rush to enter. Not until the third attempt to test the 60 level rolls over am I content enough to believe this is indeed a failing bounce and try a short at 52. I have my stop at 66 up above the prior bounce high, something that proves very handy as I have to suffer a final market thrust to 63 before the hoped-for reversal materialises. The decline is swift and I am happy to take my 14pt, 1R profit at 38, relieved that an 11pt move against me still delivered a final profit. I am not greedy in such circumstances when so fortunately let off the hook, but this time my exit was perhaps overcautious as the downward charge went all the way below the big figure 00 before staging another bounce. A lot left on the table but relief is more important to me than extra profit today, braver traders would have done very well indeed.

Don't rush your entries; sit, watch and wait for the setup to form as you want before jumping in. It is only natural to want to get involved as soon as you see a possibility but I have too many times seen the market do a last (or two) adverse gyrations and take out your stop before moving as you imagined to rush in any more. It still almost happened today despite my entry caution. Be patient and wait for the ideal setup, they are like buses after all - if you miss one, another will be along soon enough!
  • #531
  • Mar 31, 2025 3:11am Mar 31, 2025 3:11am
Hi all,
An illustration of both market analysis and overcaution this morning:

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Market opens 8am around 22270 and proceeds immediately to collapse to 22150 before making a volatile staircase-style stepped recovery back to 22250. I am unsure in this period whether the market has bottomed and is working its way back to the 270 open or if it struggling up, ready to collapse to test the 150 lows again. A simple and safe trading principle is that if you are unsure, do nothing, so I sit and watch. It is only when I see three successive bars failing at the 250 level do I summon enough courage to try at short at 38 as it falls back for the third time. Volatile conditions dictate a wider 20pt stop (and trade a correspondingly smaller position size) at 58, nicely above the staircase high and a 1R target of 18 nicely above the immediately prior low. This works almost instantly and I exit into the downward collapse in the very same bar to close at 12 to net +26pts or 1.3R. This proves rather overcautious as the decline does indeed continue down to test the 150 lows, a modest further 3R left sitting on the table.

Always wait and watch until your entry setup plainly shows itself and you are compelled to trade. You should take all valid setups, choosing between them never works, you always seem to leave the better ones and take the worse ones - I do, anyway! - so best to take them all. But, equally, don't take any trade until the setup is really there and you are compelled to act. Rushing into suboptimal trades will not end well, you will have too many poor losers overwhelming your good trades.

As for caution, I am very cautious and don't like abnormal volatility. In such conditions I widen the stop, reduce the trade size, and am quick to push the exit button on my trades. If you are a braver trader you can do very well when things go right in such conditions but, sadly, that is just not me!
  • #532
  • Edited 3:52am Apr 7, 2025 3:42am | Edited 3:52am
Hi all,
Woke up to an extremely volatile Trump-tariff inspired market this morning. The autoscaling on my 1min chart was in 200pt increments, normally it is in 10pt!! So, clearly need to be very careful and make necessary adjustments but equally no need to change your basic approach.

As indicated in the last post, in volatile markets I adjust by:
1) widen the stop in line with the observed extra volatility
2) reduce trade size proportionately so cash value of the trade is unchanged at the stop
3) be quick to exit a position as things can turn around so quickly and without warning
But I stick with my strategy of looking to go with the immediately prevailing flow, entering on failed weak bounces against that flow.

Anyway, on to today's trade:

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Market opens hugely down at 8am and jumps lower before staging a staircase-style volatile recovery. Please note I have set the chart scaling to tight 50pt increments this morning. I have to say that, despite the upwards apparent recovery, I am inclined to be short because markets are fear and greed and this morning is pretty much all fear, so I am looking for a short entry. In all honesty, thanks to the volatility, there will be plenty of opportunities in both directions but I just feel more comfortable on the short side today.

By about 8.45 the market has climbed up to test the early morning high around 19370. It then dips down to 300 before another assault at 400 around 8.55. The market makes three quick attempts to hold above 400 but fails and I am emboldened by this to try a short on the third failure at 388. I go for a 35pt stop (usually I am 14pts in this market) and a proportionately smaller trade size, giving a stop well above 400 at 423 and a 1R target at 353, well above the immediately prior dip low. Happily, this works almost instantly as I sell into what proves to be a 90pt downward 1 min bar (I did say things were volatile!) and get a very quick exit at 350 for +38pts, 1.1R.

I do not hang around hoping for more - see rule 3) above, and indeed this is shown to be wise today as the market immediately bounces back all the way up to 550 in just 5 bars. If I had not got my target I would have at least taken a scratch at 388, you do not want to hang on and be hit with the nearly 5R loser this would have presented you with just because you are annoyed you didn't get the win.

I trust you can see that you do have to adjust with conditions but you do not have the change your underlying core method. I still traded exactly as I usually do in terms of core method, just with some appropriate adjustments to size, stop and exit policy. If your method does not work so well in such altered market conditions then the answer is simple enough: do nothing until you are happy the water is safe enough again to take a dip. You never have to trade and there will always be plenty of good opportunities arising soon enough. Be cautious, be patient and keep your funds intact. Remember, no funds, no trading!
  • #533
  • Apr 7, 2025 6:25am Apr 7, 2025 6:25am
Hi all,
Now that we have hit April, time for a quick review of Q1 2025 trading.

The summary statistics are: 105 trades, c.40% of trades were wins, 30% losers and 30% scratches for a net 11 winners. Both winners and losers averaged +/- 1R, so with 1R equating to a 2% starting account risk it means the account is up c.22% on the quarter. My ambition is 50 net winners a year so close enough to on track and happy with that.

I have only traded one pattern method and one market all the way through - short duration trades on 1 min charts of the DAX 40, going with the flow, entry on what looks to be a failed bounce against that flow, risking 1R and looking for a 1R initial target. It can be seen from this that the method is only going to be profitable if I have more winners than losers. It is not a big trend following style method that looks for larger wins and taking a series of smaller losses to achieve that, nor is it a more scalping style method of lots of small winners partially offset by fewer but bigger losers. Each to their own and this middle of the road method suits me.

I accept that lots of times - c.30% of the time this quarter - that my idea of flow direction and/or bounce failure is going to be wrong, that is the inherent nature of the game. I am not trying to perfectly prophesise the market - I suggest you don't bother with that impossible task either - I just want to be right modestly more often than I am wrong. If a trade goes nicely for me, I'll move up the stop to breakeven and often take a possibly frustrating scratch should the market reverse before it gets to my initial target. Equally, if a trade goes badly but then recovers before hitting the stop, I'll usually also take a scratch and count it a fortunate escape rather than hoping it will continue to go my way.

I am not saying any of this is THE way to trade - there are an infinite number of ways, it's just my way that I've found suits me after lots and lots of experimentation and trial and error. You just need to get to something that makes basic sense, that you can see has the potential for net profit over time if you are disciplined in trading it, and that you are comfortable trading it and believing in it through both good patches and bad. It took me a very long time and much frustration to evolve a method I was fully comfortable with, I hope you get there more quickly and easily than I did!
  • #534
  • Apr 7, 2025 7:28am Apr 7, 2025 7:28am
Hi OldTraderMan

Ive been following your (brilliant) journey on the DAX which i trade as well from (sunny) London.

My issue is that i tend to read the situation incorrectly (i.e. sell on a pullback when it hasnt confirmed) - my (trade) P&L shows 68% losses against 12% wins (rest are breakevens). After some analysis i was thinking of putting an MA and going with the trend. Any thoughts/advice ?
  • #535
  • Apr 7, 2025 12:55pm Apr 7, 2025 12:55pm
Quoting Pervaz
Hi OldTraderMan Ive been following your (brilliant) journey on the DAX which i trade as well from (sunny) London. My issue is that i tend to read the situation incorrectly (i.e. sell on a pullback when it hasnt confirmed) - my (trade) P&L shows 68% losses against 12% wins (rest are breakevens). After some analysis i was thinking of putting an MA and going with the trend. Any thoughts/advice ?
Hi Pervaz,
Without seeing your method in action difficult to give specific advice but can try some general thoughts. First is that my correct readings of the market come out at no better than 40% of the time, the other 60% I have not been right either. That said, a 12% success rate is too low, you can't really expect to make money with wins at that level even if you were operating a big trend following method with a few huge winners and a lot of small losers. I think you have to question whether your core idea is really that valid. If you toss a coin for entry and let all trades run to +/- 1R you'd expect a success rate rather nearer 50% than 12%. Apologies if that sounds a bit harsh but I hope you see what I'm getting at.

The biggest edge I have ever found in the market is trade with the flow; or to put it another way, the trend is your friend (until the bend at the end!). Pretty much all trading ideas are quite marginal when tested, the stats I quoted above show my win rate is only about 1 net winner every 10 trades. My advice is don't worry too much about the exact entry method, focus rather on picking an idea you feel comfortable and confident with and then try it with disciplined and consistent execution, and excellent risk control across a long series of trades. These things, plus cultivating good emotional equilibrium through thick and thin are far more important determinants of trading success than trying to find a killer entry setup. Any average method will be profitable in the hands of a good trader; conversely, even a killer setup (if such a thing even exists) will probably not be profitable entrusted to a poor trader.

A moving average has the benefit of highlighting trend but the big disadvantage of being a lagging indicator. You tend to enter after the best entry point is behind you! All trading is speculative and I have never seen any method that waited for strong confirmation that didn't lose a lot of its benefit by being too late in because of the wait for confirmation. You have to place a trade in uncertainty and see how it goes. I much prefer a good entry point (i.e. where the stop looks harder to hit than the target) over a fantastic confirmation signal (which, again, I'm not sure even exists). Sure, I do wait for some indication things are panning out my way before entering, but I'm well aware it's just a best guess at best with absolutely no guarantee of success on a per-trade basis. I worry a lot more about position size, risk control, staying emotionally balanced, and how to exit than I worry about entry.

I hope some of this rambling might be of use, thanks for your contribution to the thread, most appreciated.
  • #536
  • Apr 7, 2025 4:57pm Apr 7, 2025 4:57pm
Oldtraderman, thanks your post. Can you help analyze two trade method: Brixen, seems 90% long orders, buy dip/support, ultimately profit, likely 100% win.
Dutchy Daxy, swing trade, short & long, scalping? likely 100% win.
Thanks!
  • #537
  • Apr 8, 2025 2:27am Apr 8, 2025 2:27am
Quoting netbean
Oldtraderman, thanks your post. Can you help analyze two trade method: Brixen, seems 90% long orders, buy dip/support, ultimately profit, likely 100% win. Dutchy Daxy, swing trade, short & long, scalping? likely 100% win. Thanks!
Hi netbean,
From the simple statements that both have likely 100% wins, I am entirely cynical. I don't know of any method that has anything remotely close to 100% wins. Trading is inherently speculative and uncertain, the markets are far more random and chaotic than they are precisely analysable. In such conditions, looking for a likely 100% winning method I would suggest is a futile endeavour. To be quite honest, on that basis I haven't the motivation to search through these threads to look for the trade method details. If you can supply, I will be happy to comment in more depth.

This leads me to comment more generally on trading psychology. It is a firm belief of mine that a large part of the reason losing traders lose is precisely because they don't want to lose. They want all winners and no losers and that is simply impossible. It is, I think, a function of both our basic survival instincts and social conditioning: if you are wrong in thinking the sabre tooth tiger is not behind the next rock, you are likely not going to survive; equally, if you are frequently wrong in your job, you are likely soon looking for a new one! We are deeply conditioned to want to be right; right is good, wrong is bad. A reason I post far more examples of winning trades on this thread than losing ones is because I have noticed the losing posts attract almost no interest at all. They are as least as instructive as the winners but the inherent interest is just not there.

In trading, sadly, you will be wrong frequently and the trick is to be able to deal with that effectively. It is contrary to our nature and upbringing and that is why I think so many find trading so difficult. It's not rocket science: you can only buy or sell and it can only go up or down from there. That is not a lot of variables or complexity to deal with but comparatively so few seem to be able to manage it with any consistency. Once you have a basic OK sort of method you are comfortable with, pretty much all of the rest is emotional stability (aka dealing with losers) and risk control.
  • #538
  • Apr 8, 2025 3:24am Apr 8, 2025 3:24am
Thanks. The first journal is: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/15208293
, because of good money management, daily statistics is very nice. The 2nd journal is: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/15208891
I like to learn the trading idea, including yours, they are very good journals on forum.
  • #539
  • Edited 4:24am Apr 14, 2025 2:58am | Edited 4:24am
Hi all,
With the volatile conditions at the moment, my trading is proving to be early and quick. Another trade this morning that was done and dusted within 2 bars. Also a good example of how you can make money even when you are wrong, worthy of a more close-up look on the chart today:

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Market opens 8am around 20870 and quickly collpases all the way down to touch 20700 before staging a recovery. My usual feeling here is that you normally see the market have a second test of a final low for a sustained recovery to occur. The only real exception to this is after a rapid blowout collapse to a significant big figure, then you can more often see a single touch low. We actually have this today, a straight line fall from 840 to just touch 700 before the bounce back.

That said, I remain inclined to believe there will be another leg down to at least have a look at the 700 level again, so I am looking for a short on the way up, but I am wary. We duly get to see the market twice have a look over the 775 level before immediately falling back each time, a possible double top and a sign of the bounce from 700 failing. I've marked this in green on the chart and the second retreat is enough temptation for me to try a short at 768 with a 20pt stop, this taking the stop above the bounce high and keeping the 1R target above the last local low - this all helps to make it a lower risk entry. It works well and I get my 1R win at 48 the very next bar.

As in the previous few posts, I am cautious because of the chaotic volatility, and also of the fact that today we did have the collapse-to-big-figure-touch mentioned above, so I do not sit around hoping perhaps for a renewed fall to 700, I take the 1R and am out. This proves wise as the market doesn't get below 745 before bouncing up again to go to big figure 800 instead.

My market read was wrong today but I still made money because I waited for at least some indication that the market was rolling over, and waited for a lower risk entry to present itself. If my timing had been out today or if I were greedy today I would have lost, but happily the sun continues (unusually!) to shine here in London and it worked OK. Next time I may not be so forunate but that is the nature of this game, and you would have to take the hit with equanimity.
  • #540
  • Edited 4:07am Apr 15, 2025 3:56am | Edited 4:07am
Hi all,

No trading for me today, rather tired after a late night out and at my age I find I can’t burn the candle at both ends any more! However, I have been asked to expand a little on the notion presented in yesterday’s post about being able to be wrong in your market read but still make money on the trade.

When I was learning about trading I read somewhere that if you got two good traders and gave them a series of opposite entries, i.e. one was long and one was short at the same entry price, at the end they would both likely show a profit. I didn’t really know what to make of this at the time and, although I am not aware that this experiment was ever actually done, today after many years experience of trading I am completely in agreement with it. In pretty much all the successful traders I have either met or know something about, I see a remarkably near-random ability in making market calls. And, closer to home, my personal modestly profitable trading has a win rate under 50%.

What this essentially boils down to is that your view on the market is pretty irrelevant. Trading requires a fundamental shift in thinking from trying to figure things out and be right, to accepting your trade entries are essentially random and seeing how you can make money from there. Of course, this in itself raises the question of why bother with thinking over an entry at all and just toss a coin instead? Whilst markets are demonstrably not completely random so there are setups that can slightly tilt things in your favour, the core of the answer is that entries are also important for other reasons.

A trade entry is less a view on the market than it is an exercise in risk control. You want to find an entry that limits the loss to the smallest possible reasonable amount if you are wrong. You have to give trades sufficient room to breathe but too wide a stop puts a lot of pressure on your winners being able to make up the big resulting losses. Most traders who blow an account do so because they take a huge loss somewhere along the line, very few die from a thousand small cuts.

Additionally, having a defined entry setup promotes discipline and consistency. If you have a firm entry plan you are much less likely to deviate and take poor trades driven by emotions or lack of patience. Act in haste and repent at leisure springs to mind!

Trading is much more about discipline, consistency and risk control than it is about accuracy in your market analysis. Most of the time, markets fluctuate largely without obvious reason so you can often be wrong and still make money, or at least take a scratch or smaller loss rather than a full one. You will also sometimes be right and make money, and the two together is what drives profitability - as long as you can keep your losers under control.
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