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DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

  • #761
  • Feb 13, 2025 1:04pm Feb 13, 2025 1:04pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} tariffs announcement might be coming soon - from the WH Establishing MOs to go short. might not be fast enough on the button
very sensible tariff approach
got some great trades, very fast good positive points
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #762
  • Feb 13, 2025 1:07pm Feb 13, 2025 1:07pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} tariffs on the agenda, no immediate implementation, allowing some more negotiation??? very nervous market, great opportunity to cook a chicken or to burn account
chicken nicely roasted - time to have a bait
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #763
  • Feb 13, 2025 1:35pm Feb 13, 2025 1:35pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} chicken nicely roasted - time to have a bait
there were some moves, short at first, than LONG!!!!!!
I am flat now.
After hearing the details, it is plain that they will positively affect US indices.
Very much common sense, clever and brave!!!
What has not ben addressed for decades is slowly taken into account.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #764
  • Edited 2:50pm Feb 13, 2025 2:37pm | Edited 2:50pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} there were some moves, short at first, than LONG!!!!!! I am flat now. After hearing the details, it is plain that they will positively affect US indices. Very much common sense, clever and brave!!! What has not ben addressed for decades is slowly taken into account.
It has been an interesting session for the DOW
two different parts, both very tradable
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW m1 - M5 03 2025-02-13_203610.png Size: 89 KB


Done a good number of trades, first day I fam feeling better.
I am sure that many got large profits, especially those that have a good and working PA strategy in place.
Keep well and harvest the positive points!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #765
  • Feb 13, 2025 4:59pm Feb 13, 2025 4:59pm
This has been the first trading day of the week that I have been able to concentrate better, about 60% of I would like to be, the way I measure it is the appetite for risk and em-wave, basically the rate of pulse regulating cognitive awareness, or coherence. Have been recovering from a bad cold or something like that. The static part of my system is easier, just go for the gaps close, than the first impulsive, easy for me , zz semafor prints the points to draw the fibs, got some good trades on this insight alone today, than came the reaction to the upside from the last session close, and that first impulsive has been surpassed, so it has been cancelled by the PA.
Than there was a range bund part of the session, some trades here and there, with withering commitments, still profitable but much smaller profits than within the first 45 minutes. It was during that part of the session that I found difficult to be well focussed. Have had a good breaks away from trading desk when my focus was firmly on double espressos, and stacking the wood burner.
Than came the tariff scenarios, first went short, and managed the position to be well in profit, took the profit, thinking that another short might have been forthcoming.
Intermarket analysis have not been making sense for another short, the usual stuff I use, so it was time for the longs.
The news was delivered very badly and in chaotic pieces, obviously for the purpose of sowing havoc among the less experienced traders, when the details started to emerge shared by the third parties it became clear to me why the market liked it. Charts reacted well before that badly scattered news was lauded in bits and pieces. Of course this is nothing new, but somehow there was not live broadcast of such and important announcement.
Anyway, all is well and good, it would have been easier if the news release has been more friendly, but what can one expect from the legacy media.

I shall not be trading tomorrow, grand children and family activities.
I am pleased to be able to be with them, as I have almost recovered.
Good trades to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #766
  • Feb 13, 2025 8:26pm Feb 13, 2025 8:26pm
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics...procal-tariffs
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #767
  • Edited 1:44pm Feb 15, 2025 1:25pm | Edited 1:44pm
Trend holds on 75% of the time - it has been said on countless occasions and I probably agree with that. Strangely enough I would probably agree with them that disagree with the above statement.
Without accurate perspective and care for immanent precision such statements are of no utility, just inflated bags with odorous farts, though methane is good for burning.
Consider the limited examples below,

1- Trend holds on 75% of the time


2- Trend has the probability to hold on 75% of the time - when the trend on DOW is defined on H4TF by MA5 channel and stochastics are in agreement

- when the trend on DOW is defined on M30 TF by MA5 channel during the NYSE and stochastics are in agreement during NYSE session

- when the trend on DOW is defined on M5 TF by MA5 channel and stochastics are in agreement during during the NYSE session


3 -Trend has the probability to hold on 75% of the time - when the trend on DOW is defined on H4TF by MA5 channel and stochastics are in agreement

- when the trend on DOW is defined on M30 TF by MA5 channel during the NYSE and stochastics are in agreement during NYSE session, ZZ-semafor awareness

- when the trend on DOW is defined on M5 TF by MA5 channel and stochastics are in agreement during during the NYSE session, ZZ-semafor awareness, Fib Channel of EMA100 with the bands set to 70, or 61.8

- when the trend on DOW is defined on M1 TF by MA5 channel and stochastics are in agreement during during the NYSE session, ZZ-semafor awareness, Fib Channel of EMA100 with the bands set to 70, or 61.8

One might and should add different TFs and whatever assists in making profits, the above list is an example as how it is possible to work on gaining useful perspective filled with some useful details.

Obviously it is important where one enter the trade in relation to the given TF, it is the real skill and it demands experience, focus and clear mind. If one waits too long for all the ducks to line up on every TF, the horses might have bolted, and one might enter the trade at the final stages of the trend, ready to rotate. That is the reason that the initial entries of the multi entry trades are very risky, but at the very least inn the direction of the trend on a higher TF.

On every TF follow the rules of PA and Market Structure

Add to it the gaps, fundamentals and some other useful statistics like the 3rd Fridays of the month, data release ect and these will provide important additional parts in achieving a more advanced and précised perspective when risking the capital

The above is not a complete list of things I use and how I look at trading DOW, but the mentioned items are important part of my endeavour to be profitable.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #768
  • Feb 16, 2025 3:31pm Feb 16, 2025 3:31pm
no trading tomorrow - US markets closed
21st Feb 2025 - third Friday of the month
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #769
  • Feb 17, 2025 1:30am Feb 17, 2025 1:30am
Quoting 2be
Trend holds on 75% of the time - it has been said on countless occasions and I probably agree with that. Strangely enough I would probably agree with them that disagree with the above statement. Without accurate perspective and care for immanent precision such statements are of no utility, just inflated bags with odorous farts, though methane is good for burning. Consider the limited examples below, 1- Trend holds on 75% of the time 2- Trend has the probability to hold on 75% of the time - when the trend on DOW is defined on H4TF by MA5 channel...
Yes, that's why I like trading DOW. Ever since i began trading DOW, I see things clearly and better, my trading result became better. I don't why I met DOW late.
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #770
  • Edited 11:46am Feb 17, 2025 3:39am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting martinez1
{quote} Yes, that's why I like trading DOW. Ever since i began trading DOW, I see things clearly and better, my trading result became better. I don't why I met DOW late.
I am pleased for you that you are making good progress trading DOW.

I trade DOW, it suits me. That does not mean I have that same level of liking to trade it all the time , every day.
Whether I like to trade or not is not that important, taking set ups that are in agreement with my strategy is important, and it is also important to know when I have missed the opportunity, no chasing, no sad feeling of failure, just accepting it and looking for the next set up, they do come regularly.
Trading is of interest to me, that interest is segmented on many levels, and I do like to pursue that many faceted interest.

There are many instruments to be traded, and there are multitudes of traders trading them successfully and in different ways.
Even on this forum there are great treads trading FX, Gold, crypto and other indices, I wish then all well.
In old times, when traders traded from different pits, it was common for them to trade in one pit, or at least in one pit at a time.
So make your own judgement on "gurus" pictured with fingerless gloves on a yacht holding a steering wheel with one hand, and with the other hand trading on an iPad. For a little time some have fallen for it years ago, probably less takers now, even forum like this one is frequented with much smaller numbers of visitors and traders, the pond of liquidity providers from time to time experiences draught seasons.

Trade well, use profits wisely!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #771
  • Feb 18, 2025 7:07am Feb 18, 2025 7:07am
I do not count yesterday as a trading day, US equity market has been closed, though continuous DOW cash displays imagined activities
Third Fri is coming
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #772
  • Edited 11:06am Feb 18, 2025 10:13am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting 2be
I do not count yesterday as a trading day, US equity market has been closed, though continuous DOW cash displays imagined activities Third Fri is coming
traded both ways but mainly longs towards the Fri's session close around 45517 on my platform (not that precise), closed the longs above that zone
As i have indicated in the previous post I have discounted yesterdays PA, that made some mid term TFs indicators I usually use much less reliable, taken that into account, the day has proved very profitable thus far, using the static to the gaps part of my strategy!!!
over 30 trades, done over twice my daily minimum
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTs sessions 02 2025-02-18_164317.png Size: 174 KB


Always check close on a ticker chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW session close 2025-02-18_170243.png Size: 48 KB



Got another several longs from the R (dotted red line) with falling VIX. just 40 trades today until now
Time 4 coffee

Flat now
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #773
  • Feb 18, 2025 3:02pm Feb 18, 2025 3:02pm
DOW session ended
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M1 - M5 2025-02-18_210115.png Size: 68 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #774
  • Feb 19, 2025 12:48am Feb 19, 2025 12:48am
Quoting 2be
{quote} I am pleased for you that you are making good progress trading DOW. I trade DOW, it suits me. That does not mean I have that same level of liking to trade it all the time , every day. Whether I like to trade or not is not that important, taking set ups that are in agreement with my strategy is important, and it is also important to know when I have missed the opportunity, no chasing, no sad feeling of failure, just accepting it and looking for the next set up, they do come regularly. Trading is of interest to me, that interest is segmented...
Couldn't agree more. Thank you
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #775
  • Feb 19, 2025 5:32am Feb 19, 2025 5:32am
isn't it great to see MM hard at work to make sure good profits are harvested

A bit more and a lower FIB channel on M1 shall e ready to activate long positions, patiently waiting for the things to align
Remember the 3rd FRI week, some extra care needed
Timing is very important, in right time drop the nets on the deep side and be satisfied with the catch. Take care for the nets, do not tear them by greed and false hopes.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #776
  • Feb 19, 2025 5:42am Feb 19, 2025 5:42am
Quoting 2be
isn't it great to see MM hard at work to make sure good profits are harvested A bit more and a lower FIB channel on M1 shall e ready to activate long positions, patiently waiting for the things to align Remember the 3rd FRI week, some extra care needed Timing is very important, in right time drop the nets on the deep side and be satisfied with the catch. Take care for the nets, do not tear them by greed and false hopes.
slowly starting to build long position on DOW
there is still space for the price to drop more, we shall see
good trading to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #777
  • Feb 19, 2025 6:15am Feb 19, 2025 6:15am
Quoting 2be
{quote} slowly starting to build long position on DOW there is still space for the price to drop more, we shall see good trading to all!
taken first positive points near the D pivot
reason - possibility of rotation on M5
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #778
  • Feb 19, 2025 6:32am Feb 19, 2025 6:32am
Quoting 2be
{quote} taken first positive points near the D pivot reason - possibility of rotation on M5
trading outside the US session with few exceptions is like skating on a very thin ice, so I take the profits when they are there
So far several positive trades, with the best of the i the region of + 60 points.
Have to go away for a while, shopping is desirable, have to spend some of the profits (joking!)
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #779
  • Feb 19, 2025 8:04am Feb 19, 2025 8:04am
Quoting 2be
{quote} trading outside the US session with few exceptions is like skating on a very thin ice, so I take the profits when they are there So far several positive trades, with the best of the i the region of + 60 points. Have to go away for a while, shopping is desirable, have to spend some of the profits (joking!)
possible divergence o M15, if it fully develops it will confirm a move up
H4 gives different perspective, but the gap closure is likely a reasonable move, has to be confirmed by PA
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #780
  • Feb 19, 2025 8:36am Feb 19, 2025 8:36am
preparing for longs soon
from the fib channel M1 - preferably
a bit lower to go
ADR 44300
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
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