In this journal I will explore the past PA upon which I put grid of things which I have been using for a long time.
It is not a trading system/strategy, I use it as a preparation for the next day/s or longer mid term trades.
If anybody tells you that trading is not risky, just ignore them, as there is no need to waste any time on them.
Some of the posts below make me cringe and that after many years of trading prior to posting them, other posts I think are worth careful attention.
However, all the posts represent the true and not sanitised picture of my pilgrimage over the last few years, set in posts I cannot edit.
Some present a record of experiment/s while being tested, others present things which I have used for a long time, and subjectively classify them as tested, therefore useful for my style of trading.
Please do not spent your valuable time by scrutinizing every post searching for some hidden treasure, though some posts you might find useful.
It all can be summarised as pump & dump, and dump & pump ongoing cycle of trading v investing.
It takes time to develop the necessary art to know the difference between them and apply that knowledge to trading in practical and disciplined way as without it IMHO there is no persistently wining strategy.
After a busy trading just relax with your favour drink, while being immersed in Chopin.
Danger of self delusion and self defeat
Anything and everything that makes me think that I know the future PA is an extremely dangerous proposition, and I work hard to avoid it.
This is self-delusion, which is always harmful. This includes wise commentary on historic charts presented in a way as if i have known what was going to happen. Indicators might well fit into that category, especially if they are not studied and assessed for they possible usefulness in accordance with market condition/s and a given TF. That is why many traders eventually stop using them, and concentrate solely on PA.
If PA is the most important and indicators are derived from it, it looks sensible to concentrate on PA and not suffer from the overload of suggestive information indicators supply.
I find that last several daily bars or a substantial move on H4 creates a heuristic bias in my mind, and I have to either eliminate that bias or somehow control it, otherwise my expectations and perception of what is happening on a lower TFs is badly effected. At the very least it is important to be aware of the natural heuristic biases that we create or the ones that somehow enter us, taking account that some of them might be well hidden biases. For me personally, dealing with these biases created by unlearn but natural instinct/s (heuristic) demands some active discipline, some are easier to eliminate, or starved of oxygen by things like a profitable trading strategy and trading plan based on that strategy. A practice of not adding to a loosing trade/s, and adding to a wining trade/s is also useful, and the utility of this practice grows with positive experience, when profits push out the otherwise entrenched convictions and heuristic biases, often useless and harmful that one needs to eliminate.
PA - Market structure
This is by all means the most important.
The structure of HH/and HL or LL/LH is indicating that there is probability of continuation, just over 70% that trend will continue
Wide Range Bars = WRBs and other bars and bar's formations provide is a useful insight into the PA and adds an important additional explanation to the Market structure,
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...hedging?page=8 (Page 8, post156, )
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15145378 Page 37 post 729
https://dotnettutorials.net/lesson/w...ding-strategy/ - useful further study
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/11181140...v_lig_dp_it_im
Stop Loss and Protective Stop are implemented in accordance with the trading strategy and a given TF.
If I do not have any idea where to put SL, I do not trade.
Position size is important, especially for the initial trade from which I build a larger position.
Trendlines, MAs, momentum oscillator/s and 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor
Hand drawn trendlines are extremely important
The concept of trend, range and the median are useful
https://dotnettutorials.net/lesson/b...ding-strategy/
Few MAs are usually helpful
EMA 200
Smoothed MA5 together with Smoothed MA5 shifted forward 5 spaces
EMA 100 with FIB channel on some charts
MA5 which I use to assist Stochastics set to 5,3,3
further explanation on page 10 post 195 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...edging?page=10
When I use term "in play" it means intention to trade with momentum, my particular interpretation is when Sochs are in agreement with MA5 on a given TF, use MTFs analysis, and always indicate which TFs are considered
When I use term "aligned" it means intention to trade with the trend, when MA5 is aligned with the channel created by EMA72 - EMA20
There is a concept of taking trades to the mean
3_Level_ZZ_Semafor - For further explanation please go to page 10, post 196
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...edging?page=10
Gearing between TFs (follow the trend of a higher TF) - post 78, p4
M1 / M5 / M30 - intraday
M5/ M30 / H4 - intraday and longer
M30/H4/Daily - intraday and longer
H4 / Daily / Weekly - intraweek and longer
Session candle bars
M5, M30, H4 and Daily are very prominent
For intra day trading M30 is of great importance.
Additional set of TFs useful for VSA and monitoring the WRB -( M5)/ M15 / H1 /(H4) the last three use the gearing of 4 (post 157 page 8)
It is all to do with the distance to the initial SL
Trades that last longer that intraday are usually involved with the Quarterly Futures, most often of DOW Quarterly Futures
It is useful to study the inside bar formation within the segments of the market structure, paying attention to known continuation or reversal bars.
The concept of control bar is worthy to study, practice and pay attention to.
Stochastics set to 5,3,3 together with MA set to 5 on the charts on the used TFs.
Stochastic is a very sensitive indicator, have been using it for years, correctly used it quickly provides useful insight, at a glance, but do not be mislead that it can be used without prior understanding and in relation to TF gearing, as in my case, eg a very sensitive indicator on H4 in relation to M30 and M5, do some observation.
VSA
Compounded tick volume of a given session (on MT4)
Tick volume (on MT4) indicated against the average volume set for any amount of days back (currently set to 5 days back and displayed as a shadow in grey color)
Average Daily Range, current range set against the average range of any amount of sessions back (currently set to 5 sessions back and displayed as a shadow)
Fibonacci, symmetrical moves, pivots - waves?
Use Daily Pivots with Mid pivots, pivots can be calculated in traditional way, or using fibs, fib pivots especially useful for weekly TF.
Schiff Pitchfork in relation to Fibs, waves/market structure
timing/seasons/cycles?
Prefer to trade during the London or NYSE sessions, DAX during London session,S&P500, DOW,NASDAQ during NYSE session. Though i only post DOW charts.
Usually all intraday trades are closed around the NYSE session close. All other trades are closed well before the relevant Triple Witching Friday, at the longest.
I use a grid of 3rd Fridays on the month, the year is divided into quarters in accordance with the quarterly accounting dates (triple Witching Fridays dates), I also have another charts with lunar months, prefer the 3rd Friday time grid as it is linked to option expiries.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...hedging?page=7 post 134
Earnings calendar
Extremely important - learn and be ready to take advantage
https://www.ii.co.uk/investing-with-...eason#calendar
Fundamentals
Demands time spent on reading and with charts on longer TFs, news needs to be carefully interpreted and allow time for the PA to settle after the initial large movements, which often provide opportunity to fade these larger moves.
Inter-market analysis
John J Murphy, "Intermarket Analysis" useful book to study.( I have added crypto as a fifth class to the four well described in that book)
I also keep eye on the Volatility index, USD index, Bitcoin, and other things pointed by J Murphy
Gaps - different types of gaps - abbreviations
PSCG - Previous Session Close Gap - is a gap created by the difference between the Previous session close and the open of the immediately following new or current session. This Gap has different ways to be utilised, and it depends also on the traded instrument/security.
PSCGs are very useful for trading indices, and for me its utility is often limited to the session that immediately follows that close, although if that gap is not closed I keep an eye on that.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15145378 Page 38 post 745
ISG - Intra Session Gap - Gap between the different sessions what it has been
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...hedging?page=6 post 114
DPG - Gap to the DP, when the DP is missed
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ow-with-missed?
Other gaps- Intra Day Gap and Intra Week Gap - These gaps are also flagged by PSCG and/or ISG
Please note that intra day, intra week or indeed any gap that exists between the closing and opening bar on any TF, where there is a gap created by PA is a formidable display of market activity, and as such demands attention and purposeful action/response well prepared in advance.
PA, charts in relation to the news and views of different market gurus
Having strong bias based not on charts is very dangerous.
News and opinions need to be filtered trough the sieve of charts, if not trade either news without charts or charts without news.
Trading charts without news and other people opinions tends to be more profitable versus the alternative.
In the making:
Never double down - When possible double up
Never add to a losing position - Never double/triple down -especially when scalping, or inter-session or intra-day trading
WHY?
- the initial entry badly prepared. impatient, counting to add to the looser if things go wrong
- inviting unsubstantiated motion that market will somehow reward mindless risk taking, inviting fate, and getting exited about it
- then comes justifying failure and doubling down
- next, the motion arrives of rescuing the trade
It is not a trading system/strategy, I use it as a preparation for the next day/s or longer mid term trades.
If anybody tells you that trading is not risky, just ignore them, as there is no need to waste any time on them.
Some of the posts below make me cringe and that after many years of trading prior to posting them, other posts I think are worth careful attention.
However, all the posts represent the true and not sanitised picture of my pilgrimage over the last few years, set in posts I cannot edit.
Some present a record of experiment/s while being tested, others present things which I have used for a long time, and subjectively classify them as tested, therefore useful for my style of trading.
Please do not spent your valuable time by scrutinizing every post searching for some hidden treasure, though some posts you might find useful.
It all can be summarised as pump & dump, and dump & pump ongoing cycle of trading v investing.
It takes time to develop the necessary art to know the difference between them and apply that knowledge to trading in practical and disciplined way as without it IMHO there is no persistently wining strategy.
After a busy trading just relax with your favour drink, while being immersed in Chopin.
Inserted Video
Danger of self delusion and self defeat
Anything and everything that makes me think that I know the future PA is an extremely dangerous proposition, and I work hard to avoid it.
This is self-delusion, which is always harmful. This includes wise commentary on historic charts presented in a way as if i have known what was going to happen. Indicators might well fit into that category, especially if they are not studied and assessed for they possible usefulness in accordance with market condition/s and a given TF. That is why many traders eventually stop using them, and concentrate solely on PA.
If PA is the most important and indicators are derived from it, it looks sensible to concentrate on PA and not suffer from the overload of suggestive information indicators supply.
I find that last several daily bars or a substantial move on H4 creates a heuristic bias in my mind, and I have to either eliminate that bias or somehow control it, otherwise my expectations and perception of what is happening on a lower TFs is badly effected. At the very least it is important to be aware of the natural heuristic biases that we create or the ones that somehow enter us, taking account that some of them might be well hidden biases. For me personally, dealing with these biases created by unlearn but natural instinct/s (heuristic) demands some active discipline, some are easier to eliminate, or starved of oxygen by things like a profitable trading strategy and trading plan based on that strategy. A practice of not adding to a loosing trade/s, and adding to a wining trade/s is also useful, and the utility of this practice grows with positive experience, when profits push out the otherwise entrenched convictions and heuristic biases, often useless and harmful that one needs to eliminate.
PA - Market structure
This is by all means the most important.
The structure of HH/and HL or LL/LH is indicating that there is probability of continuation, just over 70% that trend will continue
Wide Range Bars = WRBs and other bars and bar's formations provide is a useful insight into the PA and adds an important additional explanation to the Market structure,
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...hedging?page=8 (Page 8, post156, )
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15145378 Page 37 post 729
https://dotnettutorials.net/lesson/w...ding-strategy/ - useful further study
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/11181140...v_lig_dp_it_im
Inserted Video
Stop Loss and Protective Stop are implemented in accordance with the trading strategy and a given TF.
If I do not have any idea where to put SL, I do not trade.
Position size is important, especially for the initial trade from which I build a larger position.
Trendlines, MAs, momentum oscillator/s and 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor
Hand drawn trendlines are extremely important
The concept of trend, range and the median are useful
https://dotnettutorials.net/lesson/b...ding-strategy/
Few MAs are usually helpful
EMA 200
Smoothed MA5 together with Smoothed MA5 shifted forward 5 spaces
EMA 100 with FIB channel on some charts
MA5 which I use to assist Stochastics set to 5,3,3
further explanation on page 10 post 195 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...edging?page=10
When I use term "in play" it means intention to trade with momentum, my particular interpretation is when Sochs are in agreement with MA5 on a given TF, use MTFs analysis, and always indicate which TFs are considered
When I use term "aligned" it means intention to trade with the trend, when MA5 is aligned with the channel created by EMA72 - EMA20
There is a concept of taking trades to the mean
3_Level_ZZ_Semafor - For further explanation please go to page 10, post 196
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...edging?page=10
Gearing between TFs (follow the trend of a higher TF) - post 78, p4
M1 / M5 / M30 - intraday
M5/ M30 / H4 - intraday and longer
M30/H4/Daily - intraday and longer
H4 / Daily / Weekly - intraweek and longer
Session candle bars
M5, M30, H4 and Daily are very prominent
For intra day trading M30 is of great importance.
Additional set of TFs useful for VSA and monitoring the WRB -( M5)/ M15 / H1 /(H4) the last three use the gearing of 4 (post 157 page 8)
It is all to do with the distance to the initial SL
Trades that last longer that intraday are usually involved with the Quarterly Futures, most often of DOW Quarterly Futures
It is useful to study the inside bar formation within the segments of the market structure, paying attention to known continuation or reversal bars.
The concept of control bar is worthy to study, practice and pay attention to.
Stochastics set to 5,3,3 together with MA set to 5 on the charts on the used TFs.
Stochastic is a very sensitive indicator, have been using it for years, correctly used it quickly provides useful insight, at a glance, but do not be mislead that it can be used without prior understanding and in relation to TF gearing, as in my case, eg a very sensitive indicator on H4 in relation to M30 and M5, do some observation.
VSA
Compounded tick volume of a given session (on MT4)
Tick volume (on MT4) indicated against the average volume set for any amount of days back (currently set to 5 days back and displayed as a shadow in grey color)
Average Daily Range, current range set against the average range of any amount of sessions back (currently set to 5 sessions back and displayed as a shadow)
Fibonacci, symmetrical moves, pivots - waves?
Use Daily Pivots with Mid pivots, pivots can be calculated in traditional way, or using fibs, fib pivots especially useful for weekly TF.
Schiff Pitchfork in relation to Fibs, waves/market structure
Inserted Video
timing/seasons/cycles?
Prefer to trade during the London or NYSE sessions, DAX during London session,S&P500, DOW,NASDAQ during NYSE session. Though i only post DOW charts.
Usually all intraday trades are closed around the NYSE session close. All other trades are closed well before the relevant Triple Witching Friday, at the longest.
I use a grid of 3rd Fridays on the month, the year is divided into quarters in accordance with the quarterly accounting dates (triple Witching Fridays dates), I also have another charts with lunar months, prefer the 3rd Friday time grid as it is linked to option expiries.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...hedging?page=7 post 134
Earnings calendar
Extremely important - learn and be ready to take advantage
https://www.ii.co.uk/investing-with-...eason#calendar
Fundamentals
Demands time spent on reading and with charts on longer TFs, news needs to be carefully interpreted and allow time for the PA to settle after the initial large movements, which often provide opportunity to fade these larger moves.
Inter-market analysis
John J Murphy, "Intermarket Analysis" useful book to study.( I have added crypto as a fifth class to the four well described in that book)
I also keep eye on the Volatility index, USD index, Bitcoin, and other things pointed by J Murphy
Gaps - different types of gaps - abbreviations
PSCG - Previous Session Close Gap - is a gap created by the difference between the Previous session close and the open of the immediately following new or current session. This Gap has different ways to be utilised, and it depends also on the traded instrument/security.
PSCGs are very useful for trading indices, and for me its utility is often limited to the session that immediately follows that close, although if that gap is not closed I keep an eye on that.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15145378 Page 38 post 745
ISG - Intra Session Gap - Gap between the different sessions what it has been
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...hedging?page=6 post 114
DPG - Gap to the DP, when the DP is missed
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ow-with-missed?
Other gaps- Intra Day Gap and Intra Week Gap - These gaps are also flagged by PSCG and/or ISG
Please note that intra day, intra week or indeed any gap that exists between the closing and opening bar on any TF, where there is a gap created by PA is a formidable display of market activity, and as such demands attention and purposeful action/response well prepared in advance.
PA, charts in relation to the news and views of different market gurus
Having strong bias based not on charts is very dangerous.
News and opinions need to be filtered trough the sieve of charts, if not trade either news without charts or charts without news.
Trading charts without news and other people opinions tends to be more profitable versus the alternative.
In the making:
Never double down - When possible double up
Never add to a losing position - Never double/triple down -especially when scalping, or inter-session or intra-day trading
WHY?
- the initial entry badly prepared. impatient, counting to add to the looser if things go wrong
- inviting unsubstantiated motion that market will somehow reward mindless risk taking, inviting fate, and getting exited about it
- then comes justifying failure and doubling down
- next, the motion arrives of rescuing the trade