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DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

  • #741
  • Feb 10, 2025 9:31am Feb 10, 2025 9:31am
Quoting 2be
shorted from the session H towards the gap Risk worth taking 200+ in less that 10 min Done more than daily minimum. No time to post, but the idea is there clearly explained. Good trading to all!! {image} MM were at their useful work prior to the session, don't we like their "wonderful" work? We can see that the first session impulsive in in, lets see the reaction to confirm that proposition. {image} MO to go short 44540 zone, RET 70.07 break 4 me, at RET 50% atm, possible short entry
MO to go short 44540 zone, RET 70.07 - MO has been timed out - removed, I will adjusts manually if/when DOW gets there
S&P and NASDAQ is powering up, so I am cautious

Last session WRB, it is profitable to pay attention and get experience about the possibilities of PA in the proximity ot these helpful bars
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #742
  • Feb 10, 2025 10:37am Feb 10, 2025 10:37am
Quoting 2be
{quote} MO to go short 44540 zone, RET 70.07 - MO has been timed out - removed, I will adjusts manually if/when DOW gets there S&P and NASDAQ is powering up, so I am cautious Last session WRB, it is profitable to pay attention and get experience about the possibilities of PA in the proximity ot these helpful bars
Gap has not been completely closed, so the last session close is a zone to watch
Done about 20 trades so far since the session has started.
There are the fib extensions to consider, especially when the word "tariffs" is mentioned
Flat at the moment, though mS1 and the last session close are more likely to be achieved.
I have had a very good day so far, and I am tempted to have a break again!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #743
  • Feb 10, 2025 10:38am Feb 10, 2025 10:38am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Gap has not been completely closed, so the last session close is a zone to watch Done about 20 trades so far since the session has started. There are the fib extensions to consider, especially when the word "tariffs" is mentioned Flat at the moment, though mS1 and the last session close are more likely to be achieved. I have had a very good day so far, and I am tempted to have a break again!
Gap to the last session close has been filled.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #744
  • Feb 10, 2025 11:40am Feb 10, 2025 11:40am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Gap to the last session close has been filled.
Powered down trading computers, stepping aside from trading for a while.
Have few other exacting things to do, and to watch/listen and read.
Good trading to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #745
  • Edited Feb 11, 2025 5:47am Feb 10, 2025 4:56pm | Edited Feb 11, 2025 5:47am
At times I wander why is it that so many people start trading or at least what they are led to believe trading is with head in clouds hoping to become BIG GUNS, and find it impossible to become a pea shooter?
There are many reasons for that, I would not like to attempt listing even a limited number of them in the journal, there are endless books, podcasts ect on that worthy subject.
However I would like to commit to writing, for my own benefit few things related to the importance of the session closing price zone, recognising that the following might not be of any importance to others, which is perfectly OK with me.
DOW like the majority of indices has got a definite opening and a definite close, with the exception of after hours trading, usually not that significant in % terms.
For me the session close level is important as the level at which the given session activities has been settled, that means that the shares of the 30 DOWs companies stopped trading, and the trading will resume at the beginning of the next session.
However, Dow Cash (US30) runs continuously throughout the trading days of the whole week, with the price oscillates above, below, or staying reasonably close to clothing price zone. The reasons for there price move are numerous, including market expectations, MM activities ect.
Over 70-75% of gaps are filled, though some a filled partially. Another10 - 15% are filled within the next session or two session. A very small % takes many sessions to fill them and very occasionally the gap is not filled. Statistically it makes sense to take these gaps seriously.
Gaps like other things considered useful in trading are not used in isolation, I look for confluence of different things, insights,tools.
One needs to PAY ATTENTION TO DETAILS!
Like majority of retail traders I use a given trading platform, with given charting software, and the given trading platform marks their own "fair price" of these futures, it id their platform above all, it is perfectly legal and so on... Different platform mark these prices differently, but they usually reasonably close to the ticker price, in DOW case 10 to 15 points different, other follow it much closer. One needs to be aware of that and see on which side of the market that difference occurs and how much.
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The closing prices are slightly different, so sometimes I use a bracketed buffer zone.

When the gap to the last session close has been filled, one needs to pay attention.
The move might continue, like during the previous session, or it might reverse (rotate) like during todays session.
There are other useful tools like volume, MA, Stochs on MTF analysis, Fibs (achieved and failed to be achieved) ect.
There is much more to be pointed out, but let the above be a good starter;

In this journal some might have noticed intersession gaps, they are larger than the gap to the last session close, are highly tradable, but one needs to explore more as to how to utilise them, I have posted some info on this subject earlier.

Last session M5 - M1
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In readiness for tomorrow
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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #746
  • Feb 11, 2025 8:51am Feb 11, 2025 8:51am
Done my daily minimum all longs from the session open towards the last session close, as usual, supported by intermarket and mtf analysis, MA channel and following semafor, all seen in a glance.
piled up just under 20 trades,
a bit under the weather, so that it is for me for a while, going to seat in front of the fire, and taking if easy
Good day to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #747
  • Edited Feb 13, 2025 3:28am Feb 12, 2025 11:20am | Edited Feb 13, 2025 3:28am
I have chosen to fade the move down shortly after the session open, went long , up to the gaps, and got out at fib RET 50 just in case.
Intersession gap has been closed, D pivot might be the next target, and of course the last session close, would be a cherry on the top.
M30 looks like the move up is slowing ready for rotation, I am flat at the moment.
Have missed the move down due to the data release, and I usually do not chase the market.
Still feeling under the weather, so having a light trading day.
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Diversion on M5
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Have not chased the market, too close to the FIB channel on M1, failure to reach it, it often signals reversal. plus intermarket analysis, VIX , USD index ect
MEGAPHON pattern, on M1 and M5 - indecision
If it was flag, there would be more possibility of trend continuation, as it happens with flags type formations.

When I see an opening with a gap or gaps, naturally I think to find the reason/s as to why these gaps should not be filled or partially filled like today. These gaps have a very high statistically confirmed probability to be filled. That is the positive side of such a subjective bias, the negative side is that I find it easer to ignore signs of good opportunities to trade the other way, though not always. I have severe limitations, and in a sense I am nor a purist scalper, and I am aware and conscious about it.

Looks so far as mS3 to mS1 a kind of close to symmetrical 1 to 1 move during the US session
Missed some great set ups, as not feeling that well, But I am pleased and happy.
There must be an army of hopeful loosers on a day like this. about 95% or higher, hope you are not one of them.
Every day has many opportunities, paying attention to details leads to positive points.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #748
  • Feb 13, 2025 8:38am Feb 13, 2025 8:38am
First session trade x 6 positions
short from the 520 to 350 towards the gap
FIBs drawn just in case it has been the first session impulsive
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #749
  • Edited 9:02am Feb 13, 2025 8:49am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting 2be
First session trade x 6 positions short from the 520 to 350 towards the gap FIBs drawn just in case it has been the first session impulsive
short from 440 50% fib x2
Out 380

so far if I count each trade separately, well, better not to be mentioned ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M1 2025-02-13_150118.png Size: 62 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #750
  • Feb 13, 2025 8:59am Feb 13, 2025 8:59am
Quoting 2be
{quote} short from 440 50% fib x2 Out 380 so far if I count each trade separately, well, better not to be mentioned ...
waiting for the market reaction to the last session close zone
Intermarket analysis - mixed
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #751
  • Feb 13, 2025 9:05am Feb 13, 2025 9:05am
Quoting 2be
{quote} waiting for the market reaction to the last session close zone Intermarket analysis - mixed
risk short from 450
out 410
very choppy
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #752
  • Feb 13, 2025 9:13am Feb 13, 2025 9:13am
Quoting 2be
{quote} risk short from 450 out 410 very choppy
short 460 x6 61.8 %
out 420

USD index weakening substantially - usually not too good for shorts
VIX up
S&P up Nasdaq up
shorting might over for a while!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #753
  • Feb 13, 2025 9:19am Feb 13, 2025 9:19am
Quoting 2be
{quote} short 460 x6 61.8 % out 420 USD index weakening substantially - usually not too good for shorts VIX up S&P up Nasdaq up shorting might over for a while!!!
going long 4
enough of for a while
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #754
  • Feb 13, 2025 9:25am Feb 13, 2025 9:25am
Quoting 2be
{quote} waiting for the market reaction to the last session close zone Intermarket analysis - mixed
positive reaction to the last session close, looks like a long territory
intermarket analyses in agreement
in any case trade carefully, all can change fast
I am waiting for M5 - M15 rotation
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #755
  • Feb 13, 2025 11:02am Feb 13, 2025 11:02am
Quoting 2be
{quote} positive reaction to the last session close, looks like a long territory intermarket analyses in agreement in any case trade carefully, all can change fast I am waiting for M5 - M15 rotation
back to shorts from the top
just hunting for the points, scalping but using mtf and intra market data
when something looks safe - it probably is not
there is no trading without risk
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #756
  • Feb 13, 2025 11:28am Feb 13, 2025 11:28am
Quoting 2be
{quote} back to shorts from the top just hunting for the points, scalping but using mtf and intra market data when something looks safe - it probably is not there is no trading without risk
trading both ways, H4 favours longs, so the session PA is choppy, no bias atm
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #757
  • Edited 11:49am Feb 13, 2025 11:32am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting 2be
{quote} trading both ways, H4 favours longs, so the session PA is choppy, no bias atm
Thanks to MM the first 30 - 45 minutes of the session has been very good, implementing my strategy - to the gaps - provided sizable profits
Afterwards just hunting both ways, but with much less conviction and much more effort, still many good trades, no point or time to post them, MA channel, VIX, USD index, parallel indices, T-notes, Bitcoin ect... I use for intermarket analysis, it sounds complicated, but it is not, all displayed continually on a large monitor, it takes a glance - and ready to go, go, go....

It might take a small announcement from the WH, and the mention of a beautiful word, TARRIFSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!! things will change fast
So be alert, if that is the case, shorts the only option
H&S on M1, gave over 40 points - fast profits M5 not in line, so 40 points is OK, back to the entry point ? shall I stay or shall I go???
Shall wit for M5 and M15 to rotate before considering shorts
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #758
  • Feb 13, 2025 11:57am Feb 13, 2025 11:57am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Thanks to MM the first 30 - 45 minutes of the session has been very good, implementing my strategy - to the gaps - provided sizable profits Afterwards just hunting both ways, but with much less conviction and much more effort, still many good trades, no point or time to post them, MA channel, VIX, USD index, parallel indices, T-notes, Bitcoin ect... I use for intermarket analysis, it sounds complicated, but it is not, all displayed continually on a large monitor, it takes a glance...
Got another 50 points

think to take a break, market will be there even after the break
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #759
  • Feb 13, 2025 12:04pm Feb 13, 2025 12:04pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Got another 50 points think to take a break, market will be there even after the break
tariffs on the agenda, no immediate implementation, allowing some more negotiation???
very nervous market, great opportunity to cook a chicken or to burn account
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #760
  • Feb 13, 2025 12:14pm Feb 13, 2025 12:14pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} tariffs on the agenda, no immediate implementation, allowing some more negotiation??? very nervous market, great opportunity to cook a chicken or to burn account
tariffs announcement might be coming soon - from the WH
Establishing MOs to go short. might not be fast enough on the button
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
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