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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #1,061
  • Jul 27, 2007 9:41am Jul 27, 2007 9:41am
Nice to see U/J holding its own today despite continued losses in all of the other carry pairs, USDX at 80.90 most likely to thank. Ominous triangle formation on the M30, will be interesting to see which way it breaks.. though with the late Friday action upon us shortly, it may not hold much significance.
Attached Image
  • #1,062
  • Jul 27, 2007 9:50am Jul 27, 2007 9:50am
Quoting s3padrian
How about you send some my way :-/
heh.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,063
  • Jul 27, 2007 4:07pm Jul 27, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Currently short from 119.05 we shall see
GT, did you close or holding short over the weekend? Today's last minute dumping was very interesting.. someone prepping for Black Monday? Have a good weekend!
  • #1,064
  • Jul 27, 2007 4:24pm Jul 27, 2007 4:24pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Nice to see U/J holding its own today despite continued losses in all of the other carry pairs, USDX at 80.90 most likely to thank. Ominous triangle formation on the M30, will be interesting to see which way it breaks.. though with the late Friday action upon us shortly, it may not hold much significance.
I usually read this kind of chart on a Friday afternoon as "everyone is leaving to go to the beach / pub / wife, so the liquidity is drying up and there's no movement. That's really all it means. Until Monday.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #1,065
  • Jul 27, 2007 4:42pm Jul 27, 2007 4:42pm
Quoting Pidgeon
I usually read this kind of chart on a Friday afternoon as "everyone is leaving to go to the beach / pub / wife, so the liquidity is drying up and there's no movement. That's really all it means. Until Monday.
Well there was plenty of movement between 3:30-5pm, G/J dropped a full yard (>100 pips). That's not just some guys on an interbank desk closing their books, calling it a day & hitting the bars. Many billions changed hands in that last 90 minutes. That's a major player(s) repositioning before the weekend, either adding shorts, unwinding carries, or both.

While FX traders have only their FX positions to worry about, the bigger fish (hedge funds, etc) who are billions short the yen, have all of that carry money reinvested into other financial markets, especially credit markets. The credit markets are practically lock jawed, let alone the emerging credit markets. As those markets fall, their profits are eroded on both ends (instruments themselves and the currencies used to buy them). I don't think we're out of the woods yet. That late panicky action is possibly a big hint. My guess is you're going see lights on in many Wall St offices all weekend, with everyone levered up on both ends, trying to figure out a way to contain the damage.
  • #1,066
  • Jul 28, 2007 1:21am Jul 28, 2007 1:21am
http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1185603281


quote: all who predict a drop all the way down to 115 - 116 in few weeks


doesn't it look like last week just hit the floor of a tunnel and is actually in an uptrend?

cause lots of people said earlier that it will go down.
how about a a slow climb to top and a ceiling breach past 124.15 ?

IMO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly usdjpy.jpg Size: 427 KB
slowly but steady is the answer.
  • #1,067
  • Jul 28, 2007 1:42am Jul 28, 2007 1:42am
Quoting greatserge
http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1185603281


quote: all who predict a drop all the way down to 115 - 116 in few weeks


doesn't it look like last week just hit the floor of a tunnel and is actually in an uptrend?

cause lots of people said earlier that it will go down.
how about a a slow climb to top and a ceiling breach past 124.15 ?

IMO.
It does from a Trendline Technical view......yet there are more trendlines, and from a Fundie view.....The Stock Market sell off. Only time will tell.....right now, usd/jpy is BEARISH....all yen crosses are Bearish for now....
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #1,068
  • Jul 28, 2007 7:59am Jul 28, 2007 7:59am
Quoting FxJarhead
It does from a Trendline Technical view......yet there are more trendlines, and from a Fundie view.....The Stock Market sell off. Only time will tell.....right now, usd/jpy is BEARISH....all yen crosses are Bearish for now....
Exactly. It's hard to say whether any of the other JPY crosses are anywhere near bottom. G/J could easily drop another 1000 pips and still be well above the Feb/March lows.

Attached is a chart of U/J after 4pm on Friday. Who was waiting for the market to close to begin dumping carry trades? And why do it during FX's quietest hour? Very ominous sign IMO..
Attached Image
  • #1,069
  • Jul 28, 2007 6:36pm Jul 28, 2007 6:36pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post1505861

read chart on post 843 (above link) 1st then look at this chart.

it is sooooo predictable.

happy pippin

+
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 80 KB
Pipology 101 student
  • #1,070
  • Jul 28, 2007 7:29pm Jul 28, 2007 7:29pm
Quoting pipology-101
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post1505861

read chart on post 843 (above link) 1st then look at this chart.

it is sooooo predictable.

happy pippin

+
But in your last post you said 30 days or more ;p
  • #1,071
  • Jul 28, 2007 7:47pm Jul 28, 2007 7:47pm
That chart gives me a headache.

All I know is what TraderKGB said, the only stable pair to me is the USD/JPY because that hasn't moved in such outlandish fashion. The AUD, NZD and GBP could all drop around 500 pips and still be at all time highs. Unreal.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,072
  • Jul 29, 2007 9:54am Jul 29, 2007 9:54am
Quoting bobblong
But in your last post you said 30 days or more ;p
well, i got a better than expected result.

me happy creature
Pipology 101 student
  • #1,073
  • Jul 30, 2007 1:30am Jul 30, 2007 1:30am
The yen had just busted the daily pivot (118.58) for the long. First target is the R1 (119.15)...... All indicators are turning for the trend up.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #1,074
  • Jul 30, 2007 1:49am Jul 30, 2007 1:49am
Err. based on my reading.. its not quite out of the rut yet.
It's hovering at the 50% fib on H4 (Using Last Top and Bottom Fractal as indicators), could still go either way in the shorter term.
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #1,075
  • Jul 30, 2007 2:51am Jul 30, 2007 2:51am
Quoting jasonowl
Err. based on my reading.. its not quite out of the rut yet.
It's hovering at the 50% fib on H4 (Using Last Top and Bottom Fractal as indicators), could still go either way in the shorter term.
I sure hate to be the one to crumble your cookies, but the pivots on the usd/jpy are always right on.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #1,076
  • Jul 30, 2007 2:55am Jul 30, 2007 2:55am
Europe's buying yen, could be short lived but we shall have to wait and see.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,077
  • Jul 30, 2007 2:57am Jul 30, 2007 2:57am
Yup, that was the better call.
Hope u r riding it....
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #1,078
  • Jul 30, 2007 3:06am Jul 30, 2007 3:06am
Quoting jasonowl
Yup, that was the better call.
Hope u r riding it....
I just pulled 60 pips, waiting now for the retrace to finish and then back in for the completion of the run.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #1,079
  • Jul 30, 2007 3:08am Jul 30, 2007 3:08am
Quoting dove_alliance
I just pulled 60 pips, waiting now for the retrace to finish and then back in for the completion of the run.
119.50 is my initial target
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,080
  • Jul 30, 2007 3:11am Jul 30, 2007 3:11am
Quoting DutchTrader
119.50 is my initial target
119.15 then look for a major retrace.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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