New Cable Thread & Other Pairs

Hi Kwtfx
Thank you for your last 2 posts, I think I am beginning to understand.
I owe you another dollar as there should have only been one screenshot lol.
The screenshot above is the GBP/JPY 15min chart.
I have altered the BB to 96.
4 x 24 = 96.
So how I understand this I follow the direction of the Moving average ( blue band ) and keep an eye on the BB parameters for oversold or overbought ?
Kind regards
Kev

Hi Kev,

you're welcome, and happy you starting to understand, and thanks for trying to make me a dollarnaire

"BB parameters for oversold or overbought" thanks for the smile , please forget anything from "YouTube University".

the mid line(SMA) in BB show you direction, the bands show you range, when the bands squeeze, it means the average range for the last "96 in case of M15" is getting lower, so it's like a heads-up to be careful. and they will expand when a breakout happen(BB by itself is considered a BreakOut System).

the mid line will work like the saying "trend is your friend until the bend at the end", when it's pointing up and the bands are expanding it mean the trend is up, when the bands start to squeeze and force the mid line to go sideway, that mean the trend is ending or slowing down.

please understand, everything we talk about so far is about READING the market. trading is something YOU have to decide after you understand what you're looking at, you're going to decide on a trading style first then pick a TF that fit the style, then you follow the reading for your entries and exits.

from the chart you posted, look at the price action and BB behavior, yesterday ended LL, mid line pointing down, price keep breaking lower band.
from the reading, what do you think ? should you risk buying or wait for every LH to sell until the next bands squeeze and midline sideway ?
reading the market correctly will remove emotions and make you practical and not to rush into unreasonable trades.

hope it's clear so far before we move to the next dollar

cheers,

Hi Kwt4x
Thank you for your reply.
I would stay with the trade ( sell ) until a BB squeeze.
Price on the 15 min has recently made a HL and closed above the 96 MA, but has not closed above the recent high at around 93.50.
My way of thinking is that if the price does not close above the recent high, then the HL is not valid.
Kind regards
KEV

Hi Kev,

it's best to use the vertical period separator so you can see every days high/low to decide what next reading should be with direction.

you're not trading the MA, BB's and MA's help with direction and end/start of trends.

to identify HHHL-LLLH that's going to be the next indi, it's also time-based. let me know if the direction part is fully understood. you might want to test bigger periods on the same TF so you can see their direction compared to daily(like week month and so on)



cheers,

Hi Kwt4x
Ignore that last post please. I was playing around with a crude oil chart, and forgot to switch back to GBP/JPY.
I am very grateful for your replies, but don't want to take up to much of your time.
I will practice with the information you have given me, before I ask any more questions.
Kind regards
Kev

Another one failed attempt by the bears on news again. Waiting for more clues after that. Bulls must beat 1.0458 & 67 now.

There's either more to this or its over - If there's more to it then we need to expect further plunges DOWN, if its over, its going UPWARDS or SIDEWAYS

Monthly chart has been adhering to the expected 8 year cycle LOW - This is a line chart of the close due to the amount of price history being shown (does NOT show the low prices) - anyway, ALL the past cycles have ended on LOW points compared to the months preceding, if this is NOT over, then it "should" drop down further



Weekly Chart made a double bottom within the range of the weekly swing low bar, as shown on the chart - "If" this is a genuine DB, the expectation is for it to take out the prior swing high at 13450, "If" this is just a relief rally then it could rally then fall, you can never discount a future TRIPLE BOTTOM on this time-frame either (Which would be weeks/months in the making

Notice the Indicator positions at the double bottom zone = PICTURE PERFECT



Daily Chart Been working to my expectation for months (remember the MONTHLY chart expectation!) This was tricky to trade as I was touring the worlds temples back end of last year, but most places have Internet nowadays - notice the Stoch at the recent low - This is Robert Miners "Dual Time-Frame Momentum Indicator method in action and worked perfectly on this occasion, obviously its not guaranteed, but the probability % is ultra high



So "big" picture - I would get a monthly chart that shows actual high/low price action, notice that back in 2022 it made a Gann Lost Motion Double Bottom on the 1985 low - the price appreciation since has been very pathetic, with the 8 year cycle low due right now, the odds swing to this pair crashing further, towards the '22 low, but lets see what actually happens BUT, we currently have contradicting BULLISH price action - so its one of those "watch & wait" scenarios

If price reaches anywhere near the '22 low - the bounce will be immense or I should say "should be" immense

Prices in Germany are dropping & the GER CPI number later at the US opening will come out red. EU broke 1.0400 for good now. Expect lower.

Forgot to say on the GBPUSD post - EURUSD moves in tandem with GBPUSD on this cycle, but not as extreme as GBPUSD

This is a chart overlay from MONTHS AGO - but you get the picture

, It is supported by Dixie,
if not down, then maybe up, closed 75% 40P, lets see,

GU H1

Hi Dan and Ktw4x.
I would just like to thank you both for all the help you have given me on this thread.
I have re-read the last 5 or 6 pages a few times now and I think I am getting to grips with it now.
I will post some charts during the week.
Thanks again
Kind regards
Kev

GU its a sell H4 and m15 charts
at 38 fib 125.40-50 area
even if it gets to the weekly R2 pivot at 125.70 its still a sell

sold GU at 125.39
at the moment it is a lower high reading on the daily. price may still go higher
otherwise the target is 121 area

I really like and agree with what he said, i also use the MA channel as part of my setup
my lesson learned , use the daily reading and stay in the trade. up 3.6% so far, see how the trade plays out.

What I Learned Today
By Jake Bernstein

Tuesday 19 July 2011 1:52 PM PT
2011 Jake Bernstein


Shut out the noise! Today was just another one of those days where a trader needs to learn how to put on earmuffs and stop listening to the superfluous noise, opinions, forecasts, and recommendations touted by "experts" in the media. We need to constantly learn and relearn the fact that if we have confidence in the game we are playing and we must be crystal clear on the rules if we have seen the rules work repeatedly. We need to play the game by our own rules and learn to ignore what the loudmouths are saying. As usual Jim Cramer hits the airwaves on CNBC today and in own abrasive style tells us that we need to buy gold. As always the man is confident, emphatic, self-assured and typically obnoxious. He tells us we need to buy gold. He tells us we need to buy gold now on the correction. Gold is down a few dollars at the time and then proceeds to plunge about $20. I'm looking at my moving average channel and I want to buy gold some 30 or $40 lower. So I'm waiting. Pity the poor newcomer to futures trading who listens to a trade recommendation without a stop, without an entry price, without an idea of risk, and without any specifics whatsoever other than "you need to own gold and you need to buy on the correction that is happening right now".
This lesson of doing your own work and remaining true to your work is one that we will learn time and time again and even then we will have to learn it repeatedly. We will always be vulnerable to opinions, news, prognostications, and recommendations given by those for whom we have even the slightest bit of respect given that they may have been right in the past. I always like to look at my own track record of recommendations and ask myself the question "how well have my forecasts worked?" Specifically in case of gold I remind myself that I have been long gold for over eight years now. I remind myself that several years ago when I wrote articles for Jim Cramer's website I recommended gold many times, even before Mr. Cramer imagined that one day he might recommend gold. At that time gold wasn't even in his vocabulary and today he's the gold expert.
LESSON LEARNED: You must play your own game, by your own rules, in your own time with your own triggers with the appropriate degree of risk which will be a testament to your belief in self, to your confidence, to your skill as a trader. Sometimes you will be wrong but oh how well you will do when you're right and how strongly your confidence will grow. And with your confidence will also grow your profits. And with your profits will grow more confidence. And with more confidence will grow more profits. And soon you may also be that obnoxious person on CNBC but you won't have to be because you will quietly be a massing your own fortune without the need to shoot your mouth off with nonspecific generalizations about what to do and in what markets.

GU update H4 channel broken nicely
the last chart on H1 the channel has only been broken a little
and the first chart about 20hrs ago, the M15 channel was first broken and PA retested the top at 125.43 area
and then broke through the m15 channel and started the down move. (blue rectangle) 2nd chart