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  • #2,221
  • Jul 26, 2007 6:41am Jul 26, 2007 6:41am
Quoting Mightypip
Just wondering what is it going to take for this pair to start going back up in your opinion? which news break?
No news break. News doesn't move the market.
  • #2,222
  • Edited 7:57am Jul 26, 2007 7:35am | Edited 7:57am
New home sales Expected 900KPrevious 893K


This is where I scratch my head..because how in the Heck can 'Economists' expect new home sales to go up when the market is absolutely Dismal and it's reported in the news every day?!
My wife's a realtor and can see that the market is not improving, especially right now...so how does the expected value show 900K
taking series 3 and 34
  • #2,223
  • Jul 26, 2007 8:33am Jul 26, 2007 8:33am
Quoting JoshDance
No news break. News doesn't move the market.
News move market more than you know . I guess you are not trading on this market for very long. Don’t take this remark as an attack, it is just an observation.

There are two ways Central banks intervene on the market

  1. Verbal Intervention
  2. Real Intervention

My guess is that you never saw one.
And news coming from them can move market up to 200 pips (been there and saw that).
Now it market insists that they shaw us the money, then it can move currencies much , much more.
There are other news that market will listen , and react besides those coming from CBs. Some time ago one of the favourite rumours was death of someone’s president .And so on, and so on…..

  • #2,224
  • Jul 26, 2007 2:21pm Jul 26, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting SammyJ
News move market more than you know . I guess you are not trading on this market for very long. Don’t take this remark as an attack, it is just an observation.
People, and entities, move the market, not news. IOW, news can say USD is strong, but the USD can tank. Why? Sentiment, reaction to news in unexpected ways, etc. One huge corporation can convert 1B EURs to USDs just because it needs to. Even in the big world of fx, that is significant. All markets move in predictable patterns, yet each price movement can be viewed as a random event, and can have no relation at all to news. Same as how you can win consistently at card games, if you play probabilities correctly.

My point is that news can say something totally opposite to the market's reaction to it, and that besides news, simple exchange and conversion of currencies by big entities can move the market with no news at all. And the main point: you can't do a thing about it, and you must watch the market move where it will move. The market cannot be predicted at any given time.
  • #2,225
  • Jul 26, 2007 5:04pm Jul 26, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting JoshDance
People, and entities, move the market, not news. IOW, news can say USD is strong, but the USD can tank. Why? Sentiment, reaction to news in unexpected ways, etc. One huge corporation can convert 1B EURs to USDs just because it needs to. Even in the big world of fx, that is significant. All markets move in predictable patterns, yet each price movement can be viewed as a random event, and can have no relation at all to news. Same as how you can win consistently at card games, if you play probabilities correctly.

My point is that news can say something totally opposite to the market's reaction to it, and that besides news, simple exchange and conversion of currencies by big entities can move the market with no news at all. And the main point: you can't do a thing about it, and you must watch the market move where it will move. The market cannot be predicted at any given time.
After reading this , I know that you are not trading on Forex for very long.
  • #2,226
  • Jul 27, 2007 4:33am Jul 27, 2007 4:33am
Hello FX traders,
Trading analysis of the day...

The G7 trading system reveals:
trend direction: Bearish
trend reversal level: 1.3860
The Euro goes above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800 and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.
todays suggestion: look forward to sell into rallies, with first resistance at 1.3780
G7 Resistance levels: 1.3780
anyone adding to this is heartily invited...
Keep trading! No speculation - true Forex calculation...
  • #2,227
  • Jul 27, 2007 6:17am Jul 27, 2007 6:17am
Quoting SammyJ
After reading this , I know that you are not trading on Forex for very long.
You're right, I haven't. Please, share your expertise. How has your performance been over the last few years in forex? What is your method? What % has your account balance grown over the last 5 years? If it's successful I'm all ears, and would love to hear how you have used news trading to make your money.
  • #2,228
  • Jul 27, 2007 6:59am Jul 27, 2007 6:59am
Quoting JoshDance
You're right, I haven't. Please, share your expertise. How has your performance been over the last few years in forex? What is your method? What % has your account balance grown over the last 5 years? If it's successful I'm all ears, and would love to hear how you have used news trading to make your money.

cool another pissing contest
  • #2,229
  • Jul 27, 2007 8:34am Jul 27, 2007 8:34am
There will be no pissing contest (I am not going to participate anyway). I have started to write here, because this forex forum is far more professional then others.
In that tone, I’d rather talk about my favourite pair EurUsd.

Supports are now at 1.3620/30 and 1.3600. 4h is still pointing to the south but on small time frame I see possibly to re test small resistance at 1.3660/70. Above it we have 1.3690/00 and then 1.3740.

Weekly chart remains bullish even with this drop so closing tonight is going to be very important.

In case you care to see those charts :

4 hours -http://fxartists.freehostia.com/ffcharts4h.html
Daily- http://fxartists.freehostia.com/ffcharts.html
  • #2,230
  • Jul 27, 2007 9:23am Jul 27, 2007 9:23am
We have tested 1.3660 and failed, so now market is sitting on 1.3630 (rate right now is at 1.3631). Lets see can they go through 1.3620/30 support and close bellow 1.3600
  • #2,231
  • Jul 27, 2007 1:24pm Jul 27, 2007 1:24pm
I am now looking at the 1 hr chart, seeing a possible bounce to 1.3780, a close above that will probably mean a continuation of the uptrend and all the way to a new all time high..

If that fails I don't think anything is going to stop it from going down to some much lower levels.. Unless we encounter some Eur intervention to maintain approximate current value

That's just me though. Lots of loss during the past week, missed plenty of good signals across the board and took some average ones that went pear shaped.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd27.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #2,232
  • Jul 29, 2007 9:23pm Jul 29, 2007 9:23pm
The trend of EUR/USD at 1.3860, sell rallies to resistance levels.
the Euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800
Keep trading! No speculation - true Forex calculation...
  • #2,233
  • Jul 30, 2007 12:55am Jul 30, 2007 12:55am
I'm long now. Targets = new heights.
  • #2,234
  • Jul 30, 2007 1:17am Jul 30, 2007 1:17am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
I'm still looking at 1.3500, and this latest info from dailyfx may be what will get us there

08:09 EUR/USD: Weighed On By Bloomberg PMI"s London, July 30. The recent release of Bloomberg/NTC retail PMI data has added some short-term weight to EUR/USD. The Euro should feel this weight across the board as the Euro Zone index falls along with the German readings. German July retail PMI dropped back from 49.2 previously to 45.9 while Euro Zone data dropped from 48.2 in June to 46.2, according to the recent numbers on Bloomberg TV. [email protected]
  • #2,235
  • Jul 30, 2007 1:19am Jul 30, 2007 1:19am
This pair should test 1.3690 for a possible strong resistance.
If this level is breached, continous bullish movement is expected. Otherwise, bears should own a place a bit longer
  • #2,236
  • Jul 30, 2007 2:00am Jul 30, 2007 2:00am
Quoting sirpawel
I'm long now. Targets = new heights.
in a similar position
  • #2,237
  • Jul 30, 2007 9:28am Jul 30, 2007 9:28am
Will it retrace some 20 pips after Europe?
  • #2,238
  • Jul 30, 2007 10:11am Jul 30, 2007 10:11am
Long 1.3680 tp 1.3765, 1.3850... s/l 1.3640..

We'll see how that works out, been over sluggish today

I suspect the day traders are taking profits right now at this level gonna have a small retrace
  • #2,239
  • Jul 30, 2007 11:22am Jul 30, 2007 11:22am
Closed long 92. Waiting for retracement
  • #2,240
  • Jul 30, 2007 11:41am Jul 30, 2007 11:41am
Quoting MPP
I'm still looking at 1.3500, and this latest info from dailyfx may be what will get us there

08:09 EUR/USD: Weighed On By Bloomberg PMI"s London, July 30. The recent release of Bloomberg/NTC retail PMI data has added some short-term weight to EUR/USD. The Euro should feel this weight across the board as the Euro Zone index falls along with the German readings. German July retail PMI dropped back from 49.2 previously to 45.9 while Euro Zone data dropped from 48.2 in June to 46.2, according to the recent numbers on Bloomberg TV. [email protected]

MPP

Other analysts have expressed similar thoughts. May well be that
the greater move will be south for this week. Time will tell.
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