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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #14,381
  • Jan 2, 2025 4:13pm Jan 2, 2025 4:13pm
“Trading is serious business.
Get ready to work hard
and come out a more successful trader on the other side.”
  • #14,382
  • Jan 2, 2025 4:23pm Jan 2, 2025 4:23pm
“I do not believe in gambling or reckless speculation,
but am firmly convinced, after years of experience, that
if traders will follow rules and trade on definite indications,
that speculation can be made a profitable profession.”
  • #14,383
  • Edited 8:34pm Jan 2, 2025 6:52pm | Edited 8:34pm
Quoting Zynodic
{quote} Hello All! First time posting but I have diligently consumed several hundred pages of this thread. Truly invaluable info and discussions! Thank you Terry for your tools and PB for the thread, and the many insightful contributers. This post above by PB connected the flip points tool of Terrys indicator with the FLDs in my mind. When I traced the flip points movement with TV pen tool in replay mode, the FLD revealed itself. I confirmed further by assigning an FLD to the chart and watching the corresponding flip point trace the FLDs path. I...
Hi Zynodic, as you observed, the flip point does replicate price action to the right of the chart in a similar manner to the FLD, but the time position of the "flip point line" that you identified is purely arbitrary. I programmed that to be just clear of price action.

Some further info to help your understanding:- The flip point price is the point where the value being removed from the moving average is equal to the value being added to the moving average by the current price. If these two are equal the moving average will be flat and any movement of price in either direction will cause the MA to flip direction. So if we look back along the CMA to the point where prices are being removed from the moving average, if the current price is greater than the price being removed then the CMA is rising, if the current price is less than the price being removed then the CMA is falling, and if the current price equals the price being removed then the CMA is flat.
In practical terms, this means the flip point will always be the price of the candle the same distance back as the length of the CMA. The consequence of this is that a "flip point line" will follow the historical price action of the historical price the full CMA bars ago in a similar fashion to the FLD.

I hope that makes sense, it sounds very complicated but it's actually very simple when you understand how moving averages work.

PS. a line drawn from the centre of the historical bar that's being removed to the centre of the current bar will give the current angle of the CMA. So you can see the CMA trend accelerating or flattening based on the upcoming historical candles.
  • #14,384
  • Jan 2, 2025 8:48pm Jan 2, 2025 8:48pm
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} Hi Zynodic, as you observed, the flip point does replicate price action to the right of the chart in a similar manner to the FLD, but the time position of the "flip point line" that you identified is purely arbitrary. I programmed that to be just clear of price action. Some further info to help your understanding:- The flip point price is the point where the value being removed from the moving average is equal to the value being added to the moving average by the current price. If these two are equal the moving average will be flat and any...
Yes! Thank you. This is making more sense.
  • #14,385
  • Jan 2, 2025 8:53pm Jan 2, 2025 8:53pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} welcome Zynodic I do not understand what you want to demonstrate with the FLD's. Read again the paper from Hurst "Understanding the FLD "" Chapter 9 of the Course. This is a key paper on Hurst Methodology which is ENTIRELY based on Centered Moving Averages and their Mechanism (explained in detail in quoted paper). I will clarify what Hurst has written : A FLD is a Future Line of Demarcation. Line = the present Price Line Future = Translated Forward of 1/2 Period of a Cycle ,Vibration, Frequency etc in fact a SINEWAVE at work within Price...
Appreciate the clarification!

Would it be accurate to say, if the correct base span has been identified, then when the CMA exhibits sinewaves, a corresponding FLD can act as a timing line giving potential price projections as well as signaling the top or bottom of the identified cycle length?
  • #14,386
  • Jan 2, 2025 10:27pm Jan 2, 2025 10:27pm
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} Hi Zynodic, as you observed, the flip point does replicate price action to the right of the chart in a similar manner to the FLD, but the time position of the "flip point line" that you identified is purely arbitrary. I programmed that to be just clear of price action. Some further info to help your understanding:- The flip point price is the point where the value being removed from the moving average is equal to the value being added to the moving average by the current price. If these two are equal the moving average will be flat and any...
Observing the decisive crosses (category A,D,E & F) indicative of an operative FLD.
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  • #14,387
  • Jan 3, 2025 1:04am Jan 3, 2025 1:04am
BTC daily, nice how it reacts to the 32 bounderies. Im still long with target 125000 ish. On a non leveraged contract so all i do is sitting out the drawdown.
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Stick to the plan!
  • #14,388
  • Edited 12:04pm Jan 3, 2025 4:48am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting Zynodic
{quote} Appreciate the clarification! Would it be accurate to say, if the correct base span has been identified, then when the CMA exhibits sinewaves, a corresponding FLD can act as a timing line giving potential price projections as well as signaling the top or bottom of the identified cycle length?
I do not use FLD anymore. I know I am disappointing David Hickson and the guys of Sentient Trader.

This because since a long time I focus on the use of CMA's as described in above FLD paper by Hurst himself.

for potential price projections I use Focal Points of various degrees (intersections of CMA's with Price at the same place) and the 50 % Retracement which is a by-product of the Price Sinewave.


By the way, using a FLD is using 2 successive Sinewaves , the second one being translated on the right (future) of 1/2 Period.

For signaling the top or bottom of an identified cycle I use at the same time my eyes AND Terry's tool : when a CMA changes its direction a white dot appears above the CMA triangle (see CMA's summary on the right lower corner of your screen)
  • #14,389
  • Edited 11:18am Jan 3, 2025 10:49am | Edited 11:18am
BTCUSD_(3mn)_20250103_1736
CCurv Orange line
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BTCUSD(1mn)_20250103_1814
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  • #14,390
  • Jan 3, 2025 1:29pm Jan 3, 2025 1:29pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} I do not use FLD anymore. I know I am disappointing David Hickson and the guys of Sentient Trader. This because since a long time I focus on the use of CMA's as described in above FLD paper by Hurst himself. for potential price projections I use Focal Points of various degrees (intersections of CMA's with Price at the same place) and the 50 % Retracement which is a by-product of the Price Sinewave. By the way, using a FLD is using 2 successive Sinewaves , the second one being translated on the right (future) of 1/2 Period. For...
You are finding the use of FLDs as redundant to your brain and eyes (&Terrys indicator) accomplishing the same? I think I see what you mean. And PB you have on many occasions lent insights saving me tons of study time by narrowing my focus. So I am interested in your opinion!

The tools I see you mostly use: Handdrawn tools, channels and extensions, Focal points, Terrys indicator / octaves, VTLs (and their angles), and few others.
In your opinion, FLDs are worthy to be understood - but for your trading plan you consider them redundant or ineffectual?

Thanks in advance!
  • #14,391
  • Jan 3, 2025 2:47pm Jan 3, 2025 2:47pm
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  • #14,392
  • Edited 6:16pm Jan 3, 2025 3:37pm | Edited 6:16pm
CMA 32 (red) has just made its low/At this exact time price is 16 Bars away from the CMA Low
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  • #14,393
  • Jan 3, 2025 3:41pm Jan 3, 2025 3:41pm
observe the 50 % Retracement (as usual (mostly))
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  • #14,394
  • Jan 3, 2025 3:43pm Jan 3, 2025 3:43pm
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  • #14,395
  • Jan 3, 2025 8:12pm Jan 3, 2025 8:12pm
Happy New Year all

I hope its incredibly profitable for you!
  • #14,396
  • Edited 4:46am Jan 4, 2025 4:19am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting Zynodic
{quote} You are finding the use of FLDs as redundant to your brain and eyes (&Terrys indicator) accomplishing the same? I think I see what you mean. And PB you have on many occasions lent insights saving me tons of study time by narrowing my focus. So I am interested in your opinion! The tools I see you mostly use: Handdrawn tools, channels and extensions, Focal points, Terrys indicator / octaves, VTLs (and their angles), and few others. In your opinion, FLDs are worthy to be understood - but for your trading plan you consider them redundant or...
Zynodic that is an excellent summary of the reality and of my thoughts and even of Hurst Cyclitec Course !

The FLD is a commercial tool promoted by Hurst in his course . The Coutse focuses on 2 things

the FPA : Formal Phasis Analysus chasing "Cycles" within Price Action
and the FLD (Future Line of Demarcatiion)

All demonstrations of "Cycles" made by all Cycle Analyst is based on Flat Underlying Trend
All Cycle Analysts are generally mute on the Amplitude of the Cycles they so activelu promote.

But Cycle Luminaries as edward Dewey and Jim Hurst wrote that LONG TERM TREND contributes to 75% of Price Action (without justificatopn of the fact note this point)

Then everything what Cycle analysts wrote is biased by this essential fact.
  • #14,397
  • Edited 8:12pm Jan 4, 2025 5:16am | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting Zynodic
{quote} You are finding the use of FLDs as redundant to your brain and eyes (&Terrys indicator) accomplishing the same? I think I see what you mean. And PB you have on many occasions lent insights saving me tons of study time by narrowing my focus. So I am interested in your opinion! The tools I see you mostly use: Handdrawn tools, channels and extensions, Focal points, Terrys indicator / octaves, VTLs (and their angles), and few others. In your opinion, FLDs are worthy to be understood - but for your trading plan you consider them redundant or...
Unfortunately for Cycle Analysts there are no regular "Cycle" at work within Price Action this means concretely no regular Period, no regular Amplitude.

As shown in all theoretical charts on FLD's in the Hurst Course to generate a FLD you need a regular Cycle that you translate of 1/2 Period on the right (in the Future ) on the Time Axis.

Moreover as the Underlying Trend ends up generally to contribute to 75 % (in average) of Price Action, as a "Trend" (a Move) develops itself you add Price variations on the Price Axis.

This way structurally a FLD system cumulates 2 factors of instability which merge to generate all kind of "mix".


In the real world of Trading a FLD system (strategy) works at his best when both constitutive parameters are stable Period is stable , Price is in Range.

Then FLD works at his best when Price is in Cycle Mode

As your Cycle Periodicity is unstable ,to be polite and conservative, your FLD is unstable on the Time Axis.

Then your FLD's interactions ABCDEFG with Price are unstable too on the Time Axis.
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  • #14,398
  • Edited 8:11pm Jan 4, 2025 5:46am | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting Zynodic
{quote} You are finding the use of FLDs as redundant to your brain and eyes (&Terrys indicator) accomplishing the same? I think I see what you mean. And PB you have on many occasions lent insights saving me tons of study time by narrowing my focus. So I am interested in your opinion! The tools I see you mostly use: Handdrawn tools, channels and extensions, Focal points, Terrys indicator / octaves, VTLs (and their angles), and few others. In your opinion, FLDs are worthy to be understood - but for your trading plan you consider them redundant or...
observe that in above FLD Chart as in most other charts of the Cyclitec Coutse Hurst uses the words WAVE and Not Cycle

Price Wave
Wave Crest

In fact in his 1.500 pages course Hurst uses 5.000 times the word Wave and only 800 times the word Cycle, cyclic cyclical.

An idiotic Hurst believer answered me " it is just semantic"

It is not. Hurst tells us this way : there is no cycle (regular) at work within Price Action (because I can not label what I describe as a "Cycle")
  • #14,399
  • Jan 4, 2025 7:44am Jan 4, 2025 7:44am
courtesy of Namzes

a typical "cycle " chart generated by Timing Solution
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  • #14,400
  • Edited 8:10pm Jan 4, 2025 8:19am | Edited 8:10pm
In the past I used FLD's as a Trend Following Tool.

I do not do that anymore because it is 100 % stupid.

Why is it stupid ?

Because on this chart Price is Trending Up.

How an exact copy of this Price Line translated on the Right (in the Future) can help me to confirm that Price is Up ?
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