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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #961
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:05am Jul 26, 2007 11:05am
Quoting Trader KGB
Yes I was tempted to place a buy limit at 118.99, it seemed rather predictable that the market was headed there to take the stops, but a quick scalp is not worth the risk today. What's your target timeframe on 116?
1-2 weeks
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #962
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:13am Jul 26, 2007 11:13am
Quoting DutchTrader
1-2 weeks
Funny how 12 hours ago we were both talking about 123-124, now we're talking 800 pips in the opposite direction. What a difference a day makes.
  • #963
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:14am Jul 26, 2007 11:14am
Quoting Trader KGB
Funny how 12 hours ago we were both talking about 123-124, now we're talking 800 pips in the opposite direction. What a difference a day makes.
Amen, Trader. That' s the beauty of this game. Like a NYMEX guy told me, you always want to be sure that you can stay in the game.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #964
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:23am Jul 26, 2007 11:23am
My 'forecast' is that we are now at the bottom of the retracement.

FTSE has hit the bottom of its 4,5 year long channel at 16.30 GMT. DAX hit the 7500. I see the FTSE as the main indicator for the other indexes like Dow and S&P. Since USD/JPY tends to follow or even lead the movement of these indexes, I expected a big drop of the indexes which has happened just right now.

USD/JPY almost hit the 60% fibo retracement. So changes are big this was the end of the retracement and the beginning of another biiig rally.

  • #965
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:25am Jul 26, 2007 11:25am
Quoting AmatPro
My 'forecast' is that we are now at the bottom of the retracement.

FTSE has hit the bottom of its 4,5 year long channel at 16.30 GMT. DAX hit the 7500. I see the FTSE as the main indicator for the other indexes like Dow and S&P. Since USD/JPY tends to follow or even lead the movement of these indexes, I expected a big drop of the indexes which has happened just right now.

USD/JPY almost hit the 60% fibo retracement. So changes are big this was the end of the retracement and the beginning of another biiig rally.

Entirely possible, we shall seee
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #966
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:29am Jul 26, 2007 11:29am
low 118.00. expect bounce and a rally.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #967
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:34am Jul 26, 2007 11:34am
Quoting bravado
low 118.00. expect bounce and a rally.
Mr. Soros speaks, I like it
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #968
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:43am Jul 26, 2007 11:43am
I hate to bust your cookies but the 119.00 is the end of the road for right now..... 120.00 is now in play again. You now have some consolidation taking place and then it will start it's move upward.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #969
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:46am Jul 26, 2007 11:46am
Quoting AmatPro
USD/JPY almost hit the 60% fibo retracement. So changes are big this was the end of the retracement and the beginning of another biiig rally.
The only issue with that scenario are the parallels (or lack thereof) that today draws with the last major yen unwinding (Feb 28th). The last unwinding was primarily the result of turbulence in the Chinese stock market, a tidal wave of selling affecting all markets globally. Given how little fundamentally had changed that day, the markets (yen crosses and equities) were ripe for the subsequent rally to newer highs.

Today however, we have a multitude of hugely negative fundamental factors that we didn't have (or had to a lessor degree) in late Feb. Further subprime meltdown, RBNZ announces end of rate hikes, BearSterns CDO hedge fund blowups, $77 oil, ExxonMobil misses earnings (despite >$70 oil!?), LBOs in trouble, credit spreads weakening, etc. The fundamental landscape has significantly changed, putting a dampener on risk taking, and hence, hopes of continued yen weakness.

It may be perhaps that all of these factors were already priced in, and that today is the "capitulation day" of public selling now that the news is out. At this stage, that is more of a "hope & prayer", and we all know how profitable that can be..
  • #970
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:07pm Jul 26, 2007 12:07pm
I am the worst trader EVER. I really should just flip my computer screen upside down. I buy at highs and sell at lows. Then I freak out and close them at breakeven, and then they go my direction. What I really should do is just set my trade and go for a run, and just not watch the screen. I get way to...ancy...
  • #971
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:16pm Jul 26, 2007 12:16pm
Quoting Sephroth08
I am the worst trader EVER. I really should just flip my computer screen upside down. I buy at highs and sell at lows. Then I freak out and close them at breakeven, and then they go my direction. What I really should do is just set my trade and go for a run, and just not watch the screen. I get way to...ancy...
Breathe. It happens to all of us, everyone has a trade they should have or should not have made. The beauty of the market is that each session presents opportunities. Go for that run, and come back refreshed and ready to grab the next long or short truck going your way.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #972
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:18pm Jul 26, 2007 12:18pm
Quoting AmatPro
My 'forecast' is that we are now at the bottom of the retracement.

FTSE has hit the bottom of its 4,5 year long channel at 16.30 GMT. DAX hit the 7500. I see the FTSE as the main indicator for the other indexes like Dow and S&P. Since USD/JPY tends to follow or even lead the movement of these indexes, I expected a big drop of the indexes which has happened just right now.

USD/JPY almost hit the 60% fibo retracement. So changes are big this was the end of the retracement and the beginning of another biiig rally.

Correction. Market went down a little further and seems to have hit the bottom at 18.45 GMT. Bottom of FTSE channel stayed intact until now. But USD/JPY did not reach the 60 fib retracement completely.

  • #973
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:23pm Jul 26, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting Trader KGB
The only issue with that scenario are the parallels (or lack thereof) that today draws with the last major yen unwinding (Feb 28th). The last unwinding was primarily the result of turbulence in the Chinese stock market, a tidal wave of selling affecting all markets globally. Given how little fundamentally had changed that day, the markets (yen crosses and equities) were ripe for the subsequent rally to newer highs.

Today however, we have a multitude of hugely negative fundamental factors that we didn't have (or had to a lessor degree) in late Feb. Further subprime meltdown, RBNZ announces end of rate hikes, BearSterns CDO hedge fund blowups, $77 oil, ExxonMobil misses earnings (despite >$70 oil!?), LBOs in trouble, credit spreads weakening, etc. The fundamental landscape has significantly changed, putting a dampener on risk taking, and hence, hopes of continued yen weakness.

It may be perhaps that all of these factors were already priced in, and that today is the "capitulation day" of public selling now that the news is out. At this stage, that is more of a "hope & prayer", and we all know how profitable that can be..
Well, I don't look at these 'fundamentals'; I just look at what the indexes do and what USD/JPY does. And in februari USD/JPY was a little ahead of the indexes, but when the indexes hit their bottoms then, that was also the go for the USD/JPY rally.

Another thing that is remarkable though is that FTSE fell to the bottom of its channel, but the other indexes didn't. So when FTSE still breaks through the bottom, we may speak about a 'recession' instead of a ' big correction' I guess.
  • #974
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:30pm Jul 26, 2007 12:30pm
Quoting bravado
low 118.00. expect bounce and a rally.
going for a long @ high 117.00 or low 118.00.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #975
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:32pm Jul 26, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting bravado
going for a long @ high 117.00 or low 118.00.
I agree with Mr. Soros
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #976
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:35pm Jul 26, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I agree with Mr. Soros
you agree with yourself you mean.

let's see how it goes.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #977
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:37pm Jul 26, 2007 12:37pm
Hahaha i am glad i've waited since 120.50's.
R.Ozkan 1984 İzmir-Turkiye
  • #978
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:42pm Jul 26, 2007 12:42pm
Quoting bravado
you agree with yourself you mean.

let's see how it goes.
: Good one, I do see a test lower and then we'll get the usual 100/200 pip up move as market player figure out the JPY is still a cheap trollop for every sailor in the world.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #979
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:43pm Jul 26, 2007 12:43pm
Can't believe this can't find a floor, I think the biggest "relief" rally was 10pips from 119.00 to 119.10 about 45 mins ago. My congrats to whomever is short this thing. I wonder if it'll close down -200.

Now eur/usd is up 36pips and gbp/usd is green on the day? So much for that last bastion of hope in the USDX rally..
  • #980
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:12pm Jul 26, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Can't believe this can't find a floor, I think the biggest "relief" rally was 10pips from 119.00 to 119.10 about 45 mins ago. My congrats to whomever is short this thing. I wonder if it'll close down -200.

Now eur/usd is up 36pips and gbp/usd is green on the day? So much for that last bastion of hope in the USDX rally..
I jumped in above 119, at 119.15 seeing where it goes.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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